Uh oh: Trump down nine points after debate in new Rasmussen national poll

posted at 2:01 pm on August 11, 2015 by Allahpundit

I’m not telling you these polls are correct, just like I didn’t tell you yesterday that that bombshell Morning Consult survey showing Trump rising to 32 percent after the debate was correct. We’re tracking all of the polls this week to see what the consensus says, as that’ll be a reasonably good indicator of where the race really stands right now.

The good news for Trump fans via Rasmussen: He’s still leading the field. The bad news: For the first time since the start of Trumpmania, he’s losing ground rather than gaining it.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate.  Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote…

Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the candidate generally viewed as the winner of the B-level debate last Thursday evening, has jumped eight points from one percent (1%) support in the previous survey…

Rubio has doubled his level of support from five percent (5%) in late July. Carson has gained slightly. Walker has fallen back five points, while support for Bush and Cruz has held steady.

Fiorina and Rubio both had strong debates on Thursday so an accurate poll should, one would think, show them building support since last week. That’s what Rasmussen shows, to the point where Carly’s now in the top five. Moreover, one of the theories by Trump naysayers about his polling is that it’s deceptive insofar as it’s picking up (in some cases) supporters who are unlikely to actually vote in the Republican primaries. Ask an average American adult who’s not politically engaged who he/she prefers in a field of Donald Trump and 16 unknowns and you’re likely to hear “Donald Trump” in reply — even if that person has no intention of casting a ballot. Rasmussen seeks to control for that by polling only likely Republican voters. Within that group, they’re finding a nearly 10-point drop for Trump since last week.

That’s not the only poll out today with bad news, though. Suffolk polled Iowa and found Trump still leading there at 17 percent, which is in line with how we was doing in several pre-debate polls there over the last few weeks. Among people who watched the debate, though, the results were ominous:

su

When asked if Trump was targeted unfairly by Fox’s moderators, 54 percent said no. When asked who was the most impressive at the debate, 23 percent said Marco Rubio, 22 percent said Ben Carson, and 11 percent said Ted Cruz. Slightly less than 11 percent said Trump. (For what it’s worth, despite Carson disappearing during the debate for long stretches, I’ve heard several conservative friends say how impressed they were with him. If Trumpmania begins to fizzle, Carson may be the guy who starts picking up Trump’s “no more politics as usual” support despite the fact that they’re polar opposites in personality.) Although Trump’s favorable rating in Iowa is now net positive at 45/37, he’s far behind his most serious competitors there in that metric: Scott Walker is at 73/13, Rubio is at 72/12, Carson is at 78/7(!), and Cruz is at 64/17. Quote:

“It appears that Donald Trump’s lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trump’s 17 percent probably wouldn’t be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on top—at least for now.”

One more poll for you, this from another early state. The Boston Herald and Franklin Pierce University polled New Hampshire after the debate and found, once again, Trump still in the lead. But he wasn’t the big mover this time — and his support was noticeably lower than it’s been in other recent NH polls:

The last four polls in New Hampshire had Trump at 21, 24, 24, and 32 points; this is the first time he’s been below 20 since late June. No crosstabs available yet, but presumably it’s the rising Kasich and Fiorina who have gobbled up some of his support. Kasich’s strategy, a la Jon Huntsman, is to all but skip Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire, hoping to stun the establishment frontrunner in the primary there next year and launch himself into serious contention for the nomination. Nate Cohn of the NYT looked at that Herald poll this morning and wondered if this month will be remembered in hindsight not for Trumpmania but as the month when Kasich became a serious enough contender in New Hampshire to threaten Jeb Bush. If you’re a Trump fan who’s bummed out about his new numbers, take some comfort in that. If Kasich cuts deeply enough into Jeb’s take in NH, it could enable some other candidate to sneak through to victory, all but destroying Bush’s campaign before it gets going. Second look at Kasich?


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Comments

What the anti-Trump folks don’t understand is Trump is simply the omen of things to come if the GOP nominates Bush. It could also apply to Rubio if he keeps bringing up his moral crusade of saving places like Yemen. If he don’t watch out he could turn into a younger John McCain in more ways than just immigration. I cannot believe anyone is taking Kasich seriously, but if they are it will be no different than a Bush nomination.

Like I said before Trump is a political “prophet”, sort of a horseman of the apocalypse, just that is this case it is not the end of the world, just the end of the GOP if the base gets left out in the cold again.

William Eaton on August 11, 2015 at 5:59 PM

I do remember that Rass was correct on the GWB-Kerry match up while other pollsters got it wrong.

Not sure if being off by 1 pt makes Rass an unreliable pollster either.

AprilApple on August 11, 2015 at 5:27 PM

They were off by one for Romney but not for Obama. They had Obama at 48 and he won with 51.

coca on August 11, 2015 at 6:00 PM

As of tomorrow, HotAir is off my daily news cycle. Once one of my most trusted and favorite news sources, HA is now the Donald-Trump-All-The-Time-24/7 internet channel

Well, until that changes, I’m outta here.

Humphrey on August 11, 2015 at 4:49 PM

How will you know that it changes?

kcewa on August 11, 2015 at 6:01 PM

Yes. I keep hammering

yammering hoping something will slip thru. i fear they are sick of me. ;-)

AprilApple on August 11, 2015 at 4:46 PM

Fixed for accuracy.

Judge_Dredd on August 11, 2015 at 6:02 PM

It is amazing. All you have to do is smear illegal immigrants from Mexico as violent criminals and rapists
libfreeordie on August 11, 2015 at 5:17 PM

Unbelieveable. The first leftist that gets it and it has to be the retarded one. Terrific.

Judge_Dredd on August 11, 2015 at 6:06 PM

As of tomorrow, HotAir is off my daily news cycle. Once one of my most trusted and favorite news sources, HA is now the Donald-Trump-All-The-Time-24/7 internet channel

Well, until that changes, I’m outta here.

Humphrey on August 11, 2015 at 4:49 PM

Humphrey, you might want to email them at [email protected] otherwise they will never see this.

Bmore on August 11, 2015 at 6:13 PM

NOTE TO THE MANAGEMENT

As of tomorrow, HotAir is off my daily news cycle. Once one of my most trusted and favorite news sources, HA is now the Donald-Trump-All-The-Time-24/7 internet channel

There are a great many things of import happening in the world, especially in the political world. HA seems to have determined that if it ain’t Trump, it ain’t fit for print.

Donald Trump is to the Republican party (and to conservatism in general, though I doubt Trump can even spell that word) as blood poisoning is to the human body. If it’s treated early, all is well. If it’s not treated, or treated poorly, the patient will die.

HotAir seems to think there’s just not much else to talk about besides Trump. Every time I check, five or six of the top ten graphics are pictures of Mr. Combover.

Get it through your heads, guys. Trump is a disease, like athlete’s foot or a dose of the clap. He is a pox on the house of conservatism and on the Republican party. Even worse, he is a Godsend for the Democrats and the legacy media.

Why on earth are you feeding the frenzy? No other news outlet I use has anything near the Trump coverage youse guys do.

Well, until that changes, I’m outta here.

Humphrey on August 11, 2015 at 4:49 PM

You do realize that HotAir with the rest of the GOPSmartSet don’t like Trump and doing their best to get him out of the race, right?

TheMadHessian on August 11, 2015 at 6:13 PM

What the anti-Trump folks don’t understand is Trump is simply the omen of things to come if the GOP nominates Bush. It could also apply to Rubio if he keeps bringing up his moral crusade of saving places like Yemen. If he don’t watch out he could turn into a younger John McCain in more ways than just immigration. I cannot believe anyone is taking Kasich seriously, but if they are it will be no different than a Bush nomination.

Like I said before Trump is a political “prophet”, sort of a horseman of the apocalypse, just that is this case it is not the end of the world, just the end of the GOP if the base gets left out in the cold again.

William Eaton on August 11, 2015 at 5:59 PM

1992 is calling and wants the stupid prophetical rants from Perot nativist supporters back back.

joana on August 11, 2015 at 6:18 PM

Trump is surging………nearly to the levels of Michelle Bachman’s campaign at this time 4 years ago.

Tater Salad on August 11, 2015 at 6:20 PM

As of tomorrow, HotAir is off my daily news cycle. Once one of my most trusted and favorite news sources, HA is now the Donald-Trump-All-The-Time-24/7 internet channel

Well, until that changes, I’m outta here.

Humphrey on August 11, 2015 at 4:49 PM

Wait! Come back! In a week, HotTrump will become HotGay again!

Judge_Dredd on August 11, 2015 at 6:22 PM

Cruz, Paul, Carson

All the rest suck.

PappyD61 on August 11, 2015 at 6:25 PM

Buuuut Trump is actually wayyyy ahead. You know unskewed polls and all.

tom2789 on August 11, 2015 at 6:26 PM

I heard Rand Paul’s comments about Trump…..

Rand…..you are moving into the “you suck” category.

I don’t care what your fans Stu and Pat on Beck say.

PappyD61 on August 11, 2015 at 6:30 PM

Buuuut Trump is actually wayyyy ahead. You know unskewed polls and all.

tom2789 on August 11, 2015 at 6:26 PM

You tell me. The brother of the most paraiah’d man in Presidential history is in second or third place less than 7 years after the fact and less than 2 years after his successor quit blaming him daily.

But that’s none of my business…

Judge_Dredd on August 11, 2015 at 6:33 PM

Ask an average American adult who’s not politically engaged who he/she prefers in a field of Donald Trump and 16 unknowns and you’re likely to hear “Donald Trump” in reply — even if that person has no intention of casting a ballot. Rasmussen seeks to control for that by polling only likely Republican voters. Within that group, they’re finding a nearly 10-point drop for Trump since last week.

That’s not the only poll out today with bad news, though. Suffolk polled Iowa and found Trump still leading there at 17 percent, which is in line with how we was doing in several pre-debate polls there over the last few weeks. Among people who watched the debate, though, the results were ominous:

Probably most voters at this early stage of the process only know Donald Trump through his “reality” show. But when he’s in a political debate with 8 candidates who have already won statewide office (three Governors, two former Governors, and three Senators) Trump found out the hard way that nastiness doesn’t win elections, and the more people see Trump in a political debate, the less they like him.

We now have a virtual 4-way tie for second place between Bush, Rubio, Walker, and Fiorina, whose support now totals 38%, or more than twice Trump’s current support. It’s possible that after Trump’s rant trashing Megyn Kelly and other women, women voters will be attracted to Fiorina, who has business background like Trump but none of his anti-woman baggage, who has focused her campaign on being the anti-Hillary woman.

After these two debates, we no longer have Donald Trump and 16 unknowns, but viewers got a chance to see and hear the other candidates, even for only about six minutes each. As some of the candidates mired in low single-digits drop out, we’ll see whether their supporters coalesce around one candidate.

Steve Z on August 11, 2015 at 6:38 PM

NEXT GOP DEBATE MODERATOR HUGH HEWITT COMES OUT AGAINST TRUMP

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/11/next-gop-debate-moderator-hugh-hewitt-comes-out-against-trump/

Pork-Chop on August 11, 2015 at 6:43 PM

Rush had the best comment today when he said it is a long campaign season and eventually substance will win out. I hope so. Don’t a lib running as a R.

Ta111 on August 11, 2015 at 7:17 PM

Why on earth are you feeding the frenzy? No other news outlet I use has anything near the Trump coverage youse guys do.

Humphrey on August 11, 2015 at 4:49 PM

This place is Analpundit’s hive. And one of the secondary reasons I call him “Analpundit” is his Freudian anal-retentiveness manifest in his annoyingly stubborn obsessive controlling political crusades….

Augustinian on August 11, 2015 at 7:35 PM

Pork-Chop on August 11, 2015 at 6:43 PM

Salem Hewitt and jake tapper of cnn at the Reagan library?

Who organizes all this stuff? Who makes these decisions?

SpongePuppy on August 11, 2015 at 7:42 PM

I’m not a Trump supporter, but I don’t think his numbers declined due to his debate performance. Nobody who’s familiar with Trump could have expected different. I think his decline in support stems from the fact that some other, less known candidates finally got some exposure. Outside of Trump, most of the other candidates were virtually unknown to the nation and Republican base prior to the first debate. Republican primary voters are finally getting a chance to form impressions of the candidates, and as that continues, Trump’s numbers will probably continue to decline.

The Bringer on August 11, 2015 at 7:46 PM

I’m not a Trump supporter, but I don’t think his numbers declined due to his debate performance. Nobody who’s familiar with Trump could have expected different. I think his decline in support stems from the fact that some other, less known candidates finally got some exposure. Outside of Trump, most of the other candidates were virtually unknown to the nation and Republican base prior to the first debate. Republican primary voters are finally getting a chance to form impressions of the candidates, and as that continues, Trump’s numbers will probably continue to decline.

The Bringer on August 11, 2015 at 7:46 PM
Exactly. Trump hit his high water before the debate because he had 100% name recognition. He can only go down from here.

Ta111 on August 11, 2015 at 7:57 PM

Only losers spring leaks.

Good Lt on August 11, 2015 at 2:28 PM

100% Agree. this will be on full display in Nov. 2016, when the non-Trump candidate goes down in flames vs. Hillary.

avgjo on August 11, 2015 at 8:07 PM

TDS destroys all ability to use logic.

These Trump haters would screech about all the Homicide Detectives and Medical Examiners that would have to go into another line of work if Trump advocated against murder.

Fire the entire IRS, top to bottom. Simplify the entire system.

Schadenfreude on August 11, 2015 at 2:20 PM

This is just one facet of the great stupidity that pervades this land.

The fact alone that Trump may well be down because of ‘attacks on wymyn’, among REPUBLICANS, instead of the fact that he hasn’t really (except for his GREAT ideas on taxes) offered much in the way of policy tells you most aren’t fit to vote. Couple that with the TDS you refer to, much of it displayed by the same people who told conservatives last time that we couldn’t apply purity tests to Mittens, that his flip-flops were irrelevant and that only Mittens could win, and the fact that a large portion of the country still reliably votes dimocrat after the last 9 years, and you will see that the country is done.

avgjo on August 11, 2015 at 8:13 PM

Augustinian,

Take a look at Allahpundit’s top secret email post. It’s a good analysis and kinda funny, but he simply shrugs off the gross wrongdoing by Hillary by concluding something to the effect of, ‘oh well, nobody will care so why should I?”

What he’s doing is giving leftists a complete free pass about this simply because they demand it – simply because the media will try to ignore it.

It’s the exact opposite of what gets done to Trump on here.

blink on August 11, 2015 at 7:44 PM

Yeah I know. His convictions always bend Left. And at the end of the political day he always bows down to populism. It’s as if his entire shtick is a pathetic bargaining-down process over the remaining spoils of the political wasteland in some sort of contradictory nihilistic optimism.

I just don’t get it other than he’s one pathetic angst-ridden loser who’s decided to create “winning” out of the Pyrrhic victory of pessimism.

Or maybe he’s just an immature metrosexual libtroll puss.

Augustinian on August 11, 2015 at 8:15 PM

Pork-Chop on August 11, 2015 at 6:43 PM

Salem Hewitt and jake tapper of cnn at the Reagan library?

Who organizes all this stuff? Who makes these decisions?

SpongePuppy on August 11, 2015 at 7:42 PM

One thing you know: it was organized a long time back. The first question is how an organization like Salem got to be the sponsor of 3 debates. They could not get there without the RNC blessing. But when did Salem move in and buy up a bunch of conservative venues including RedState and HA. When Salem took over HA the site was swung GOPe. Salem funded H Hewitt to record pro amnesty ads that were run on Talk radio. I heard them. They were run in basically the same slots as the Zuckerberg Rubio/Ryan amnesty ads. The Ryan Rubio ads were sponsored by a bogus conservative front organization that basically exists as a website and took its funding from fwd.us, which itself was funded by Zuckerberg, Gates etc. It is a big operation. Salem is setting itself up as the voice of conservatives, and positioning to replace tea party conservatism with GOPe conservatism.

IMHO the strategy to control the debates this time around was coordinated. Or a very amazing coincidence. About the time the COC declared an intent to crush the tea party. Deals like the thad Cochran scam are also part of the war effort.

Hugh Hewitt, Salem’s golden boy:

In addition to Hewitt’s criticisms of Trump, he has also predicted Republicans will fail in 2016—and that current Democratic frontrunner former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the next president.

“She’s 67,” Hewitt said on Adam Carolla’s podcast back in June. “She’ll be 69 if she wins and I think she will – the presidency.”

breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/11/next-gop-debate-moderator-hugh-hewitt-comes-out-against-trump/

entagor on August 11, 2015 at 8:21 PM

Why on earth are you feeding the frenzy? No other news outlet I use has anything near the Trump coverage youse guys do.
Humphrey on August 11, 2015 at 4:49 PM

Can you really be that slow? Hello?

Look at the traffic and comments on any given trump thread versus essentially any other thread period. The only ones that come close are some other controversial storyline and even those don’t get near the same numbers.

If people here didn’t eat up trump threads like they were steak and lobster then they wouldn’t post so many.

But, alas, the commentariat here does, in fact, eat them up like it’s their last meal.

So, you can only get used to it. He’s the best click bait material since Sarah Palin.

Can you imagine what the ACTUAL traffic numbers and reload numbers look like behind the curtain? I can tell you.

They look like money. Money none of their other possible topics provide in anywhere near the same manner.

Genuine on August 11, 2015 at 8:37 PM

ada, Yada . . . on they spin.
e.g.,

coca on August 11, 2015 at 3:34 PM

Just remember, “denial” is more than a river in Egypt.
Trochilus on August 11, 2015 at 4:39 PM

So just stating the facts about the results of the 2012 Rasmussen poll is spinning?

And try to think of something more original than the the denial/river thing. It’s so over used

coca on August 11, 2015 at 9:39 PM

all you cuckservatives against trump should feel all the shame of yourselves onto your souless beings. trump is the only viable candidate obive totes. so obvie.

brushingmyhair on August 12, 2015 at 12:14 AM

Whether Trump goes Third Party or not is meaningless. Who was the Third Party in 2012 -Hum? It was the ‘Screw You I’ll stay home’ party that’s who. And whose fault was that? You keep running duplicitous Progressive A-holes, and you’ll keep losing and there’s no one to blame but the establishment GOP.

Pole-Cat on August 12, 2015 at 12:45 AM

all you cuckservatives against trump should feel all the shame of yourselves onto your souless beings. trump is the only viable candidate obive totes. so obvie.

brushingmyhair on August 12, 2015 at 12:14 AM

Single Payer is a Trump position.

You don’t get much more conservative than that. \sarc

MSimon on August 12, 2015 at 6:17 AM

quadrumvirate

You mean the word “four”??

Sherman1864 on August 12, 2015 at 9:05 AM

Trump is not a conservative. Period. The MSM can only keep that beachball in the air for so long. Once he fades we can get on with the SERIOUS candidates who will fight for us, like Walker, Cruz, Fiorina, Rubio, Paul, Carson, Perry, etc. (Dear God please don’t let us pick Jeb BushRomneyMcCain). But regarding Trump, he’s absolutely right about illegal immigration. It’s not illegal immigration, it’s an INVASION! And Obama is letting it happen. I wish Project Veritas would initiate and undercover operation to see how many of the illegal aliens who’ve been here for years identify as “American”. I would bet just about 100% of them would say on hidden camera that they’re not American, they’re Mexican, or Honduran, or Nicaraguan, or etc.

olesparkie on August 12, 2015 at 9:11 AM

The Donald is dead, long live the Donald!!

Hey, did you guys hear? Trump isn’t a conservative!!!!!
OMG, who’da thunk it!?!?

/////

S. D. on August 12, 2015 at 10:53 PM