Swing state poll: Voters back Bush, Walker over Clinton

posted at 4:01 pm on May 6, 2015 by Noah Rothman

As a true bellwether state, New Hampshire arguably deserves its status as the first in the nation primary state. In the last 36 years, only in 2004 have New Hampshire’s general election voters failed to back the ultimate presidential election winner. What’s more, the margin of victory enjoyed by the winner of the Granite State’s electoral votes often closely mirrors the national vote. New Hampshire’s voters truly have their finger on the political pulse. And that’s why the results of the latest Dartmouth University survey should be a source of concern for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Dartmouth pollsters took an early look at the general election landscape and tested some potential head-to-head matchups ahead of 2016. That poll found that, while Clinton continues to enjoy the support of more voters when tested against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) and Govs. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee. But that same survey also found Clinton struggling when voters were forced to choose between her and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), and it discovered that the former secretary of state comes up short in a hypothetical matchup against both Govs. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush.

“[I]n the 2014 poll, the Clinton-Bush match-up showed 42.2 percent support for Clinton and 32.3 percent support for Bush. The results of this trial match-up changed significantly in 2015; Bush received 36.9 percent support while Clinton received 34.1 percent support (29.0 percent unsure),” the poll’s release read.

Bush clinton

“The Rubio-Clinton trial heat resulted in a virtual tie—34.4 percent for Rubio and 34.5 percent for Clinton, with 31.1 percent unsure,” it continued. “Finally, Walker leads Clinton by a four-point margin, 38.7 percent to 34.8 percent, with 26.5 percent unsure.”

walker Clinton

Caveats abound with this survey. There are a huge number of undecided voters, which suggests that this pollster didn’t push its respondents to reveal in which direction they are leaning. That’s a justified decision at this stage of the race. There hasn’t even been one debate yet, much less a primary election, and it would taint this poll’s results to force voters into camps with which they are not familiar. Moreover, this survey did not provide crosstabs, so there is no way to know how the various demographic constituencies voted. Finally, this is a poll of only registered rather than likely voters, and the makeup of the 2016 electorate cannot yet be modeled.

Nevertheless, this poll is interesting and it should represent a big red flag for Team Hillary.


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Comments

yeah, that poll is pretty worthless.

dforston on May 6, 2015 at 4:06 PM

It is the incredibly annoying sound of her voice that will finish her…

mnjg on May 6, 2015 at 4:17 PM

What the hell ‘Republican’ supports Hillary Clinton?

TheMadHessian on May 6, 2015 at 4:22 PM

JEB, JEB, JEB, JEB!!!

Come on, who’s with me??!!!

ToddPA on May 6, 2015 at 4:25 PM

Now… just wait until we can jettison Bush!

WryTrvllr on May 6, 2015 at 4:27 PM

What the hell ‘Republican’ supports Hillary Clinton?

TheMadHessian on May 6, 2015 at 4:22 PM

The marginal type without a Y-chromosome.

crrr6 on May 6, 2015 at 4:27 PM

“Finally, Walker leads Clinton by a four-point margin, 38.7 percent to 34.8 percent, with 26.5 percent unsure.”

Just destroy the bytch and be done with it.

WryTrvllr on May 6, 2015 at 4:29 PM

JEB, JEB, JEB, JEB!!!

Come on, who’s with me??!!!

ToddPA on May 6, 2015 at 4:25 PM

I think the only situation where the Bush name could help Jeb is if the whole national economy were to collapse and spiral down into the toilet over the next year. That’s probably what it would take for people to get nostalgic for presidents named Bush. They’d look back and remember not living in their car during the last Bush presidency. Good times.

RBMN on May 6, 2015 at 4:35 PM

That’s kind of cool information. I can only get so excited about it in May of 2015 but maybe it is a sign of open minds.

Cindy Munford on May 6, 2015 at 4:36 PM

Walker leads Clinton by a four-point margin, 38.7 percent to 34.8 percent,

It’s time to play “bury the lede.”

That poll found that, while Clinton continues to enjoy the support of more voters when tested against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) and Govs. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee.

Not a sentence!

Emperor Norton on May 6, 2015 at 4:36 PM

What does that say about us when Hillary, a serial liar & crook is still in strong contention to run our country.

RdLake on May 6, 2015 at 4:38 PM

Look at the tiny Democrat undecided vote.

It’s not a party, it’s a cult.

JEM on May 6, 2015 at 4:42 PM

Walker!!! This is gonna burn our little Gilled one…

lovingmyUSA on May 6, 2015 at 4:42 PM

What does that say about us when Hillary, a serial liar & crook is still in strong contention to run our country.

RdLake on May 6, 2015 at 4:38 PM

It means that the voters (just from experience) expect politicians to be crooked and they’re seldom disappointed.

RBMN on May 6, 2015 at 4:44 PM

Look at the tiny Democrat undecided vote.

It’s not a party, it’s a cult.

JEM on May 6, 2015 at 4:42 PM

That is the electoral power of the democrat party… Their base is so extremely faithful because they are so extremely stupid… No independent thought what so ever… As long as they receive their welfare checks and getting fed stupid left wing rhetoric they will vote for the democrat party no matter what…

mnjg on May 6, 2015 at 4:51 PM

What can we learn from polls nine months before the vote?

For one thing, name recognition plays a big part. Bush gets a little boost from the family name, but voters don’t really know him yet. Walker is less known, but has been in the news nationally with the Wisconsin fights. Hillary has been on the national scene since 1991, she is at her zenith of name-recognition right now.

~~

Bottom line: Republicans still have an upside. For Clinton, it’s pretty much all downhill from here.

I have not read the new book yet, but a couple of friends who have say what has been teased is just the tip of the iceberg. There enough more shoes to drop to make Imelda Marcos smile.

Adjoran on May 6, 2015 at 4:51 PM

What the hell ‘Republican’ supports Hillary Clinton?

TheMadHessian on May 6, 2015 at 4:22 PM

Someone who gets a paycheck from the Clinton Crime Syndicate.

Fallon on May 6, 2015 at 4:52 PM

JEB, JEB, JEB, JEB!!!

Come on, who’s with me??!!!

ToddPA on May 6, 2015 at 4:25 PM

LOL

Ya know, I’ve heard that Clinton and Jebbie are two sides of the same coin. I wasn’t sure I believed that until I realized Jeb backwards is Be-J. Just saying…

Fallon on May 6, 2015 at 4:56 PM

That poll found that, while Clinton continues to enjoy the support of more voters when tested against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) and Govs. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee.

Not a sentence!

Emperor Norton on May 6, 2015 at 4:36 PM

Lol, although I realized that “Not a sentence!” is not a sentence!

anotherJoe on May 6, 2015 at 5:17 PM

Bottom line: Republicans still have an upside. For Clinton, it’s pretty much all downhill from here.

Adjoran on May 6, 2015 at 4:51 PM

Been sharply downhill for her since Obama’s re-election (almost like the voters were saying, okay, one more chance for him, but enough is enough: not for her). But, really, the downward slope begins in 2011. November 2012 was just a bump in the slide.

de rigueur on May 6, 2015 at 5:23 PM

It’s time to play “bury the lede.”

Emperor Norton on May 6, 2015 at 4:36 PM

Exactly.

Bush, most like Clinton, tied.

Rubio, kinda like Clinton, ahead 2.

Walker, least like Clinton, ahead 4.

Joseph K on May 6, 2015 at 5:27 PM

What the hell ‘Republican’ supports Hillary Clinton?

TheMadHessian on May 6, 2015 at 4:22 PM

Someone in New Hampshire who gets a paycheck from the Clinton Crime Syndicate.

Fallon on May 6, 2015 at 4:52 PM

Seriously, I thought Iowa decided who the next president would be.

leftamark on May 6, 2015 at 5:40 PM

For one thing, name recognition plays a big part. Bush gets a little boost from the family name, but voters don’t really know him yet.

And as soon as they do, he’s finished.

Redstone on May 6, 2015 at 5:46 PM

As a true bellwether state, New Hampshire arguably deserves its status as the first in the nation primary state.

No state deserves to be permanently the first in the nation to hold a primary.

J.S.K. on May 6, 2015 at 5:55 PM

JEB, JEB, JEB, JEB!!!

Come on, who’s with me??!!!

ToddPA on May 6, 2015 at 4:25 PM

*crickets*

Redstone on May 6, 2015 at 5:59 PM

This is understandable…Clinton and Bush are the same! At this point we might as well dump the constitution, appoint two semi-ceremonial kings, the Bush and Clinton line, and go to the constitution of Lycurgus of Sparta.

William Eaton on May 6, 2015 at 6:23 PM

Caveats abound with this survey.

LMAO! Bless his heart. Noah only included this warning because Rubio comes in behind Walker and Bush. Surely that can’t be right, eh Noah?

“Walker, Walker, Walker!” (Jan Brady style)

Yes, actually! Walker 2016!

cicerone on May 6, 2015 at 8:00 PM

Look at it this way….
If the D’s have stacked the election deck with the illegals, maybe it’s time to leave the “Land of the Libs” to the Libs and go our own way.
Let the Blues try to feed and fuel themselves.
III/0317

Sgt Stryker on May 6, 2015 at 11:15 PM