Obama advisor concedes: The Obama coalition is not the Democratic coalition

posted at 10:31 am on November 12, 2014 by Noah Rothman

Democrats should have been more suspicious of the notion propagated by many partisan analysts over the last six years which postulated that the president’s electoral coalition of minority voters, young people, and single women is the new Democratic base.

Surveying the four national elections that have occurred in the Obama-era, analysts will find virtually no evidence to suggest that the Obama coalition is synonymous with the Democratic coalition. When Barack Obama is on the ballot, his coalition of voters shows up at the polls. When he isn’t, they don’t; even despite his personal appeals.

While there are no exit polls from these states to breakdown the voters who showed up on Tuesday, it seems clear Barack Obama could not mobilize even base Democrats to turn out in deep blue states like Maryland and Illinois. In the Old Line State, a candidate the president personally campaigned for lost by 5 points. The Democratic governor of the Prairie State has the dubious honor of being the first incumbent governor of a president’s home state (for whom he personally campaigned and voted) to lose reelection since 1892.

Obama won Maryland and Illinois in 2012 by 26 points and 17 points respectively.

Just as they did in 2010, the GOP’s voters showed up and Democratic voters stayed home on Tuesday. With the caveat that midterm electorates are not representative of their presidential counterparts, it seems clear now that Obama’s voters are not necessarily Democratic voters. At least, that seems clear to the White House.

“If the Obama coalition can become the Democratic coalition, it will shape the contours of the debate for years to come and pave the way for a lot of things we feel strongly about, that may not get done in our last two years,” White House senior advisor Dan Pfeiffer told The Washington Post in an article detailing how Team Clinton is executing the transition from the Obama administration to the Hillary administration in waiting.

…”If”. That’s quite an admission, and one which Democratic operatives have carefully avoided making up to this point.

GOP strategist Stuart Stevens framed the Democratic Party’s problem more bluntly:

“When the Obama campaign won in ’08, it was a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party,” said Stuart Stevens, chief strategist for Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. “With two historic back-to-back midterm defeats, all of their operations, their technology, have proven to be ineffective when Barack Obama is not on the ballot.”

Now, the Democrats are in the unfortunate position of having to convince an electorate fired up by a young, African-American raconteur to get energized by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother. Obama’s party has their work cut out for them.


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…to get energized by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother. Obama’s party has their work cut out for them.

Cory Booker.

The democrats can never nominate somebody not of color again.

cozmo on November 12, 2014 at 10:36 AM

GOP strategist Stuart Stevens framed the Democratic Party’s problem more bluntly

Romney “strategist”?
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Now THAT was funny..!!

Pelosi Schmelosi on November 12, 2014 at 10:38 AM

What about fauxcahontas? Shes a person of color :-)

elvis lives on November 12, 2014 at 10:38 AM

Never ever forget that these Dems were more than happy to screw the American people over as long as their guy was popular. Now that the bloom is off the stinkin rose they are all distancing themselves. Too late. We’ve see you for what you are. This is a party more than willing to shove legislation down our throats because we are “stupid” and they are so enlightened. They are willing to destroy the economy, jobs, healthcare, energy and on and on to further their party. To the Democrats party is first. Remember that in 2016

neyney on November 12, 2014 at 10:38 AM

Gosh, I really feel like the Republicans have a chance of taking back the middle class, Marin County plus everyone on public assistance vs the middle class. Be the party of the middle class on economic issues.

For example, say look the Democrats want you to move out of your suburban house, sell your car and take the bus, pay for other people’s health care and pay more taxes, we Republicans want you to keep your house, pay off your car, save for college, and have economic opportunity for your kids instead.

timoric on November 12, 2014 at 10:39 AM

In other words, they didn’t ‘dig up’ enough dead voters to form a Democratic coalition that would drag them over the finish line this time.

Flora Duh on November 12, 2014 at 10:40 AM

Obola has been visiting one of HIS “coalitions” this week. And it sure has h3ll isn’t Americans.

Meople on November 12, 2014 at 10:40 AM

“When the Obama campaign won in ’08, it was a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party,”
=========================

Yup!!

Yes, because the Extreme Ultra Far LeftWing Wacko`s,
the Communist Progressive Socialists, had a Night
of the Long Knives, at the Denver Convention, and
the Liberal Democrats allowed their Party to be Hi-
Jacked!!

The Civil-War within the Liberal Party never happened,
and now, their party has to live with the Political Con
sequences!!

So LiBTards, are ya happy now!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on August 11, 2010 at 9:30 PM

canopfor on November 12, 2014 at 10:41 AM

How can she be clumsy if she’s dodged sniper fire : P

elvis lives on November 12, 2014 at 10:41 AM

Stuart Stevens is an ego maniacal thug…

d1carter on November 12, 2014 at 10:42 AM

Seriously, how much money do these knuckleheads get paid for this stuff? Anyone with half a brain knew that people voted for Obama just because he is half black and they got to be “cool” voting for him. Normally they would have never voted in their life.

Idiots.

Johnnyreb on November 12, 2014 at 10:43 AM

by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother. Obama’s party has their work cut out for them.
===========================================================

Lol,….Noah,..I do hope that HilRod
isn’t reading Hot Air,..*wink-wink*:)

canopfor on November 12, 2014 at 10:44 AM

“Eat your spinach” — Gruber

Schadenfreude on November 12, 2014 at 10:44 AM

“If only we could fool more people” — obama/Clintons

Schadenfreude on November 12, 2014 at 10:46 AM

“Eat your spinach, you stupid voters” — Gruber

Schadenfreude on November 12, 2014 at 10:44 AM

What he really meant

NoFanofLibs on November 12, 2014 at 10:47 AM

All the griffters come out in a presidential election year.

celtic warrior on November 12, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Cory Booker.

The democrats can never nominate somebody not of color again.

cozmo on November 12, 2014 at 10:36 AM

Tough to get excited about someone breaking the 3:58 mile after Roger Bannister cracked the 4 minute mark…

JohnGalt23 on November 12, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Now, the Democrats are in the unfortunate position of having to convince an electorate fired up by a young, African-American raconteur to get energized by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother.

Yeah, but she ain’t in no ways tarred.

Flora Duh on November 12, 2014 at 10:51 AM

I always thought the Progs made a mistake nominating Obola before Hillary.
Now it’s coming back to haunt….BUMMER..!!

Pelosi Schmelosi on November 12, 2014 at 10:52 AM

JohnGalt23 on November 12, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Democrats don’t know that. And they will keep doing the same thing over and over trying to match the original high.

cozmo on November 12, 2014 at 10:52 AM

Now, the Democrats are in the unfortunate position of having to convince an electorate fired up by a young, African-American raconteur to get energized by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother.

You forgot the ambassador-killing part.

Happy Nomad on November 12, 2014 at 10:53 AM

From Ace…

Hillary Donor Under Investigation in Counterintelligence Probe
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/hillary-donor-under-investigation-in-counterintelligence-probe/

More…

FBI searches home of former envoy labelled ‘Lady Taliban’
Former Pakistan lobbyist Robin Raphel has her office at the State Department searched but is not arrested
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/11217802/FBI-searches-home-of-former-envoy-labelled-Lady-Taliban.html

And…

A veteran U.S. diplomat is the target of an FBI investigation. Washington insiders are wondering if Robin Raphael is a spy after federal agents searched her home in an upscale Washington neighborhood recently.
http://abc7chicago.com/news/us-diplomat-robin-raphael-investigated-by-fbi–/386007/

Pelosi Schmelosi on November 12, 2014 at 10:57 AM

But, if they do nominate another young, African-American raconteur, can they be sure that Obama’s aura translates? And, what is the aura of Barack Obama, if it is separate from Dem ideology?

Techster64 on November 12, 2014 at 11:02 AM

“When the Obama campaign won in ’08, it was a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party,” said Stuart Stevens, chief strategist for Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.

Bullshit… It was not a hostile takeover, it was a simple case of the mask slipping.

The GOP has strategists like Stuart and yet people wonder why the GOP Presidential candidates keep losing. Do not forget, John McCain’s strategists willfully and intentionally destroyed McCain’s campaign to prevent Sarah Palin from becoming the number two person in line of secession.

oscarwilde on November 12, 2014 at 11:07 AM

Cory Booker.

The democrats can never nominate somebody not of color again.

cozmo on November 12, 2014 at 10:36 AM

Except the Democratic Party is the home of sexless septuagenarian hags. Obama is an affirmative action experiment that broke out of the lab (or off the plantation, if you prefer) and went on to terrorize the village. As long as the monster terrorized the right folks, it was no big deal, but in the end, the creation always turns on the creator.

Expect to see articles expounding on Obama’s white half soon. There will be no repeat of uppity minorities usurping the divine right of their Aged White Ivy League Educated Double X Chromosome Masters.

dreadnought62 on November 12, 2014 at 11:11 AM

As long as the GOP continues to marginalize the tea party, they should have no problem defeating the cackle in 2016. They need to run a Governor like Kasich, Walker, Martinez or an unorthodox type like Rand Paul. If they run a washed up overweight loser like Jeb Bush, an inexperienced novice like Ben Carson or demagogue like Ted Cruz, they will lose.

After this past election where Republican primary voters rejected the tea party, I have faith they will pick the right candidate for 2016.

The Wise Fox on November 12, 2014 at 11:12 AM

The GOP has strategists like Stuart and yet people wonder why the GOP Presidential candidates keep losing. Do not forget, John McCain’s strategists willfully and intentionally destroyed McCain’s campaign to prevent Sarah Palin from becoming the number two person in line of secession.

oscarwilde on November 12, 2014 at 11:07 AM

Stuart Stevens and Karl Rove are part of the problem. The GOP should ditch their loser consultants.

The Wise Fox on November 12, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Cory Booker.

The democrats can never nominate somebody not of color again.

cozmo on November 12, 2014 at 10:36 AM

Nominating a young black newly elected Senator with virtually no resume to speak of? Yeah, that’ll really sell with the electorate after 8 years of Obama. Truth be told, the Dems have probably ruined the possibility of any black politician(from their party at least) being elected President for a very long time thanks to the complete disaster of the Obama regime.

Doughboy on November 12, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Nominating a young black newly elected Senator with virtually no resume to speak of? Yeah, that’ll really sell with the electorate after 8 years of Obama. Truth be told, the Dems have probably ruined the possibility of any black politician(from their party at least) being elected President for a very long time thanks to the complete disaster of the Obama regime.

Doughboy on November 12, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Going to disagree there. Most American could care less about a candidate being Black. yes that helped Obama, but most voters will not hold Obama’s incompetence against other candidates who are Black. Deval Patrick would be a formidable candidate if he ran. Unlike Obama, he has real experience at governing.

The Wise Fox on November 12, 2014 at 11:18 AM

The dhims cashed in all their “whitey guilt” chips with Obama, all their “war on womyns” chips with Davis and Fluke, and now they got nothing left for the Hildabeast. So sad.

I love what Cozmo said – the dhims, the party of racism, really can’t ever nominate another honky cracker again, even one with a vayjay, can they?

FNH57 on November 12, 2014 at 11:21 AM

Now, the Democrats are in the unfortunate position of having to convince an electorate fired up by a young, African-American raconteur to get energized by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother. Obama’s party has their work cut out for them.

I’m looking forward to seeing Hillary on BET, MTV, VH1 showing those voters she can twerk with the best of them. Miley Cyrus has nothing on her.

ncconservative on November 12, 2014 at 11:24 AM

I think the Dems need to go with a white gay fellow who implies he’s black.

After all, in this day of transitive genders, one’s “race” can hardly be considered fixed, can it?

But gay is forevah

Dolce Far Niente on November 12, 2014 at 11:36 AM

Cory Booker.

The democrats can never nominate somebody not of color again.

cozmo on November 12, 2014 at 10:36 AM
Nominating a young black newly elected Senator with virtually no resume to speak of? Yeah, that’ll really sell with the electorate after 8 years of Obama. Truth be told, the Dems have probably ruined the possibility of any black politician(from their party at least) being elected President for a very long time thanks to the complete disaster of the Obama regime.

Doughboy on November 12, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Ergo Deval Patrick

Deafdog on November 12, 2014 at 11:36 AM

Given the Democratic propensity to designate “Black” seats in the legislature – does it not follow that The White House will now be a “Black” seat for the Party?

GarandFan on November 12, 2014 at 11:41 AM

The GOP needs a candidate who can show in the primaries that they can gain the solid support of ideological conservatives and the Tea Party while simultaneously displaying the intangible qualities that get less ideological Republicans to stop worrying about electability.

Unify the two factions enough to stop the war, turn all the guns on the Democrat and convince the unaffiliated middle that a Reagan-based inclusive optimistic economic plan is the best way forward.

It is really that simple, but easier said than done as always.

Brian1972 on November 12, 2014 at 11:42 AM

I’m looking forward to seeing Hillary on BET, MTV, VH1 showing those voters she can twerk with the best of them. Miley Cyrus has nothing on her.

ncconservative on November 12, 2014 at 11:24 AM

Thanks for that mental image horror show, I think I just threw up a little.

Brian1972 on November 12, 2014 at 11:44 AM

Ergo Deval Patrick

Deafdog on November 12, 2014 at 11:36 AM

Massachusetts Governors have a pretty poor track record in recent Presidential elections. ;-)

Cory Booker has a record as mayor of Newark, and it isn’t a great one. Unlike Obama who had nothing prior to his term as Senator that could be attacked, other than voting “present” in the state Senate a lot.

Democrats really have no one who can fully recreate the Obama coalition. This is why I believe Obama is going to get as reckless as possible, daring the GOP Congress to impeach him. If he is impeached, then he is going to be effectively on the ballot in 2016.

rockmom on November 12, 2014 at 11:50 AM

What the Dems really need is to run a black lesbian. That will cover all the bases. :)

MaggiePoo on November 12, 2014 at 11:51 AM

The GOP needs a candidate who can show in the primaries that they can gain the solid support of ideological conservatives and the Tea Party while simultaneously displaying the intangible qualities that get less ideological Republicans to stop worrying about electability.

Unify the two factions enough to stop the war, turn all the guns on the Democrat and convince the unaffiliated middle that a Reagan-based inclusive optimistic economic plan is the best way forward.

It is really that simple, but easier said than done as always.

Brian1972 on November 12, 2014 at 11:42 AM

Any of the top GOP governors other than Christie could do that, easily. They have all governed as fiscal conservatives and most have also demonstrated social conservative policy accomplishments.

rockmom on November 12, 2014 at 11:57 AM

Perceived wisdom is that the White House is screaming for a nice set of cans to rule it. Has Hillary got a nice set of cans?

[email protected] on November 12, 2014 at 11:58 AM

Well the Obama coalition turned IL and AR from blue to red, and in the case of IL with blacks in parishes where they got an earful about how the D party was just using them for votes and didn’t care about them.

That is a core part of the Obama ‘coalition’ and just try to sell more of the same on the South Side of Chi-Town. The place where conservatives and gun owners want the people to be able to arm themselves against criminal predators and the D’s prefer them as victims. Victims that they only use to pad statistics as they will never, ever, not once talk about how Leftist policies drives black on black crime in Chi-town.

If women have gotten sick of the War on Wimmins, then there goes another part of the coalition that the D’s thought they had a lock on.

Millenials are out of work and not flocking to the D banner like was expected. Somehow mountains of debt, forcing health insurance on the young and healthy to pay for the old and sick, just isn’t playing out like the D’s expected. Its that lack of jobs deal that Obama wants to have amnesty for… to make sure that educated millennials can never get a real career together.

And Hispanics basically started to revolt back in 2010 when they saw that amnesty was just an issue to D’s to farm votes in their community. Lets make the Hispanic community competitive by exploiting them AND forcing them to pay for health insurance with few jobs to pay for it! What a deal!

That is the ‘coalition’ that the Obamaites want in the heart of the Democratic Party. And quite a few of them are realizing they can vote for someone else and the world will not implode overnight. When blacks, hispanics, women and young people start voting differently, then what is left of the ‘coalition’ beyond limousine money bag techie liberals? Oh, yeah, Goldman-Sachs, the people Obama constantly rewards. Gotta love that.

If Democrats want to save their party, if not their skins, they might try getting some popular ideas through and repealing unpopular ones because the math just isn’t working out so well for the ‘coalition’ and you need to distance yourself from Obama. Might I suggest supporting over-rides of things that sell well with the voters? You never know, it just might work.

ajacksonian on November 12, 2014 at 12:12 PM

The obama coalition is the communist nazi muslim coalition. Dems can join him at their peril, as the midterms have amply illustrated.

Andy__B on November 12, 2014 at 12:16 PM

They will lose a lot of that coalition once all the election fraud and voter ID laws come into play in 2016. Leave us not forget the multiple people who were actual election officials in Ohio, notably, who voted multiple times for Buttcrack Insane Oprompta.

PJ Emeritus on November 12, 2014 at 12:19 PM

Now, the Democrats are in the unfortunate position of having to convince an electorate fired up by a young, African-American raconteur to get energized by the prospect of turning out for a white, clumsy, sexagenarian grandmother. Obama’s party has their work cut out for them.

Unfortunately, I think you underestimate the ovarian vote.

NickelAndDime on November 12, 2014 at 12:31 PM

obama/Clintons, all the same.

Schadenfreude on November 12, 2014 at 12:32 PM

Tough to get excited about someone breaking the 3:58 mile after Roger Bannister cracked the 4 minute mark…

JohnGalt23 on November 12, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Hence the push for Hillary in 2016, or if you’re even further to the left, Liz Warren. And the attempt to pull Julian Castro away from having to win a statewide election in Texas, in trying to give him gravitas through the HUD appointment.

The Democrats think they have the formula to win elections at least through the middle of the century — Just nominate a historic first candidate, hype that person through the media as having mystical god-like powers simply because of their historic first nature, and watch the people from their specific special interest group come flooding to the polls. They know African-American turnout won’t be as high in 2016 with Obama not on the ballot, but they expect to more than make that up with women voting for Hillary or Fauxahontas merely because they share XX chromosomes. After that, it’s supposed to be on to the Latino candidate in 2024, and the Asian or LGBTQ candidate in 2032 and 2040.

(The looming flaw is that Obama ran as a cipher unknown to all but political junkies outside of Illinois, so the Democrats could hide his liberal beliefs by having him vote ‘present’ on any major issue. Hillary’s going to go into 2016 with a quarter-century of baggage with the national voters, while Warren’s people have completely ignored the ‘cipher’ part of Team Obama’s 2008 strategy, and think the gender card and “War on Women” will allow her to basically sound like Noam Chomsky on the campaign stump, and women won’t care and will vote for her just based on gender solidarity. Which is what they thought with Wendy Davis and several other candidate last Tuesday, and that didn’t work out so hot.)

jon1979 on November 12, 2014 at 12:40 PM

Obama advisor concedes: The Obama coalition is not the Democratic coalition

It’s official. The Democrat Party brain trust has decided that it’s time to differentiate Obama from the progressive-fascist agenda of the hard left that runs the Democrat Party – in an effort to try to save that bankrupt agenda.

jon1979 on November 12, 2014 at 12:40 PM

The agenda being promoted by the Democrat Party in elections is fundamentally intellectually, morally, and ethically bankrupt. It is the antithesis of freedom and liberty. It is based on arrogance, contempt, and base identity politics. They can’t tell the truth about their agenda or goals because the vast majority of people will not support it – even if it panders to certain minorities.

Their entire campaign is based around defining and crafting perceptions for the voter. The messianic trumpeting and cult of being for the primary candidate, the vapid message that can be individually crafted of ‘Hope and Change’, the nonstop propaganda from the corrupt media, the projection of contempt, racism, and hate towards their opponents – all of these are part and parcel of defining and crafting perceptions.

Perceptions are needed to hide what reality shows. Reality doesn’t work for the Democrats because reality reflects the truth.

November 4th was reality crashing down on the perceptions crafted and massaged by the Democrats. Gruber’s asinine and contemptuous statements are another glimpse of reality crashing through on the Democrats. After six years of Obama – the reality could no longer be massaged or crafted.

I am hopeful that this reality is going to be a longer term thing – and that it’s not only going to bash the Democrats, but also the GOPe / Vichy Republicans who prefer to ‘go along to get along’ and think moving in the same direction as the hard left, but at half the speed is moving the country in a different direction.

Athos on November 12, 2014 at 1:15 PM

The Obama coalition is an overlapping aggregation of groups with the terminal “gimmes”: blacks who want perpetual welfare benefits (“reparations”), women who want the state to be a husband they don’t have to service (“feminists”), post-adolescents who don’t want to leave Mom’s basement (“millennials”), public sector union members who fear that “giant sucking sound” of the government teat being pulled from their eternally pursed lips, Ivy League elitists who believe their educational attainments entitle them to run everyone else’s life, Mexican illegal aliens who want the benefits of being IN America without having to BECOME Americans…
-all of whom are pinning their hopes on a rock star president because they can’t be bothered learning anything about our political system. Obama as pimp-in-chief.

jbspry on November 12, 2014 at 1:17 PM

What doesn’t take brains is trying to think of the reasons why last week’s election hasn’t been good to our girl. It increases the odds that by 2016 Obama will be an insurmountable drag on the Democrats. It forces her to put serious distance between herself and the president whose team she once joined. It subverts the idea that the ‘Clinton brand’ can emerge on its own as different and separate option: Bill and Hillary rushed to support some Obama-deniers, and all except Jeanne Shaheen lost. Alison Lundergan Grimes clung to them both, and lost in a landslide.

Schadenfreude on November 12, 2014 at 1:18 PM

What doesn’t take brains is trying to think of the reasons why last week’s election hasn’t been good to our girl. It increases the odds that by 2016 Obama will be an insurmountable drag on the Democrats. It forces her to put serious distance between herself and the president whose team she once joined. It subverts the idea that the ‘Clinton brand’ can emerge on its own as different and separate option: Bill and Hillary rushed to support some Obama-deniers, and all except Jeanne Shaheen lost. Alison Lundergan Grimes clung to them both, and lost in a landslide.

Schadenfreude on November 12, 2014 at 1:18 PM

Very true, and one more thing: like Bill Clinton, Obama is going to have to be dragged off the stage. So long as he’s got the pen and phone he’s going to make just as bloody a nuisance as Bill was while Algore was trying to get elected.

itsspideyman on November 12, 2014 at 1:41 PM

The Wise Fox

verbie, is that you…. no wait, johana… no wait, its Sandra Fluke!

captnjoe on November 12, 2014 at 2:29 PM

jbspry: +1

And as to the likelihood of the Gimmiedats nominating Deval Patrick, that is less than zero. Barry’s Mini-me can’t help it if he is 4 feet tall and has a helium balloon voice, but he is absolutely dreadful as an extemporaneous speaker, even worse than Shrill. As for motivating the have-nots, the MA poverty rate today is worse than any time since 1960, and they all stayed home when they could have put Chokely over the top. His life story sold about 5 copies. He’s going nowhere.

cosifantutte on November 12, 2014 at 3:03 PM

canopfor on November 12, 2014 at 10:41 AM

Minor point of order – that was accomplished in 2000. The 2004-2008 battle was between Hillary Clinton’s Stalinists and Barack Obama’s Trotskyites, only because we’re just a touch more civilized than the Soviets, history didn’t repeat itself.

It turns out that Obama makes a quite credible Stalinist for a Trotskyite (much like Stalin made a quite credible Russian for a Georgian).

Steve Eggleston on November 12, 2014 at 3:22 PM

Well done ignoring the troll, folks. Well done indeed.

runawayyyy on November 12, 2014 at 4:24 PM