2015’s estimate Obamacare enrollment figures revised down… way, way down

posted at 4:01 pm on November 10, 2014 by Noah Rothman

After repeatedly shifting the deadline for the end of Obamacare’s open enrollment period in past spring, the White House crowed when it determined it had finally reached its goal of enrolling 8 million Americans in Affordable Care Act-associated insurance plans. Few in the press made mention of the administration’s downward revision of that figure in October from 8.1 to 7.1 million Obamacare enrollees.

Don’t expect many in the administration or the media to make much of another revision of the estimated number of projected Obamacare insurance customers for this year’s open enrollment period. Anticipating slightly less than 6 million new enrollees, the CBO had projected a total of 13 million Americans would be signed up for ACA insurance by the end of the year. On Monday, the Department of Health and Human Services significantly revised its expectations when that agency revealed that fewer than 3 million more Americans would seek insurance under the ACA in the coming year.

“The revised goal is 9 to 9.9 million,” CNN reported. “It raises questions about whether Obamacare enrollment will reach projections down the road.”

The CBO had projected enrollment would hit 25 million by 2017, but now the administration says it will probably take at least one or two more years to reach that threshold.

“The reduced projection is due to recent data showing ‘mixed evidence’ about how quickly—and how dramatically—people will shift from employer-sponsored health insurance and non-Obamacare plans into insurance plans sold on government-run marketplaces such as HealthCare.gov, according to HHS,” a CNBC report observed.

None of this takes into account The Washington Post’s reporting on Monday which indicated that administration officials fear Healthcare.gov’s kinks may not have been completely ironed out.

“[F]ederal health officials and government contractors are scrambling, according to confidential documents and federal and outside experts familiar with this work,” The Post reported on Monday. “They have been making contingency plans in case the information technology or other aspects prove less sturdy than the administration predicts. And some preparations are coming down to the wire.”

All of this news makes it clear that the ACA is the law, set in stone and immutable, and Republicans are engaging in a misguided crusade when they seek to repeal the persistently unpopular health care reform law… right?


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Send this to all you know

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G790p0LcgbI

Schadenfreude on November 10, 2014 at 4:02 PM

Failing under the weight of it’s own incompetence.

Please Please Please let the Dems run on O-Care again in ’16.
I TRIPLE DARE YA..!!

Pelosi Schmelosi on November 10, 2014 at 4:06 PM

Few in the press made mention of the administration’s downward revision of that figure in October from 8.1 to 7.1 million Obamacare enrollees.

 
Wow.
 
Worse is realizing that only 57%, meaning 4.6 4.0 million, of those were previously uninsured.
 
Four million previously uninsured. That’s all.
 
http://acasignups.net/14/06/19/vindication-kff-study-57-exchange-qhps-were-previously-uninsured
 
(Thanks again for the link, Ned)

rogerb on November 10, 2014 at 4:06 PM

The bulk of them will either be folks desperate for insurance and/or those forced to take it as a condition of child support even when they’d rather take their chances and pay out of pocket. Guess it’s time for HHS to issue a letter instructing all divorce judges to force all their cases to enroll if not on an employer program.

AH_C on November 10, 2014 at 4:11 PM

Another lie from the ObamaCareBots. I’m giving you my shocked face right now.

Meople on November 10, 2014 at 4:12 PM

I am just shocked, just shocked. :)

kings on November 10, 2014 at 4:12 PM

Obama signs deal allowing Chinese visa holders to remain in the US TEN YEARS. Replaces current one year limit.

Never fear, Obama’s found a way around those declining Obamacare enrollement numbers. Every child born to these Chinese foreign nationals on US soil will have to be enrolled in Obamacare, and all their extended family members whom they sponsor to come to this nation legally later.

thatsafactjack on November 10, 2014 at 4:13 PM

Obviously those people that really needed the ACA have already signed up. Good job President. (contact me for all your media spin).

Walter L. Newton on November 10, 2014 at 4:13 PM

Time to take a drive past Claude Rains’ grave again…

Del Dolemonte on November 10, 2014 at 4:14 PM

CBO Estimate of Coverage with ACA a decade from now…..31 MILLION still uninsured…

Table 2.
Effects of the Affordable Care
Act on Health Insurance Coverage
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43900-2014-02-ACAtables.pdf

Pelosi Schmelosi on November 10, 2014 at 4:16 PM

Just wait to see what the enrollment “projections” look like if and when the SC rules against federal exchange subsidies.

JohnK144 on November 10, 2014 at 4:17 PM

And some preparations are coming down to the wire.

lol lol lol lol.
How long has it been since the roll out again?

JusDreamin on November 10, 2014 at 4:18 PM

A million here, a million there.

WHAT DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT DOES IT POSSIBLY MAKE?

Good Lt on November 10, 2014 at 4:21 PM

“The reduced projection is due to recent data showing ‘mixed evidence’ about how quickly—and how dramatically—people will shift from employer-sponsored health insurance and non-Obamacare plans into insurance plans sold on government-run marketplaces such as HealthCare.gov, according to HHS,” a CNBC report observed.

Wait, what? Now they’re coming right out and saying that they want people off of “private” plans, and on the public plans?

nukemhill on November 10, 2014 at 4:23 PM

One word,deductibles.The wife works at a large Level 1 trauma hospital with 14,000 employees.The only surgeries being done are trauma.Waiting rooms are almost empty.At all of the check in desk there are big signs that say Co Pays and office visits must be paid at check in.

docflash on November 10, 2014 at 4:26 PM

I just got back from the grocery store. I saw Ned Pepper’s picture on a milk carton.

HumpBot Salvation on November 10, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Those damned numbers. Math is hard.

warmairfan on November 10, 2014 at 4:31 PM

The democrats act as if they are helping people…..

Wrong, ObamaCare has been a major PITA for my family.

We were one of the thousands who liked our health insurance….

But no we were kicked out and had to go through HealthCare.gov just to re-sign up with our
old insurance company, I am working with the same agent but now we have to sign up again
and the insurance agent said we will have to do this every year. And if the rates “skyrocket”,
we may have to go bare.

Thanks Obama, for nothing you Marxist asshole.

redguy on November 10, 2014 at 4:34 PM

One word,deductibles.The wife works at a large Level 1 trauma hospital with 14,000 employees.The only surgeries being done are trauma.Waiting rooms are almost empty.At all of the check in desk there are big signs that say Co Pays and office visits must be paid at check in.

docflash on November 10, 2014 at 4:26 PM

Hopefully, those suffering in silence voted the democrats out…..

Full repeal and let the market decide.

redguy on November 10, 2014 at 4:35 PM

I know the numbers have to suck badly. There hasn’t been one single TV or newspaper article about enrollment totals here in Kentucky, not one. Last time they flooded the airwaves and newspapers.

Johnnyreb on November 10, 2014 at 4:36 PM

Failing under the weight of it’s own incompetence.

Please Please Please let the Dems run on O-Care again in ’16.
I TRIPLE DARE YA..!!

Pelosi Schmelosi on November 10, 2014 at 4:06 PM

The Republicans can totally destroy what is left of the democratic party
by sending a full repeal bill for Obama to veto……

Soon enough democrats will see the handwriting on the wall and I think
we will get 67 senators to override an Obama veto…..

The democrats know Obama will be even more toxic by 2016…..

So if they are cowards to impeach, then just strip Obama of his “achievements”……

redguy on November 10, 2014 at 4:38 PM

Obama built it. No one’s coming.

GarandFan on November 10, 2014 at 4:41 PM

According to that genius from MIT, selling the law required being less than transparent to the ‘stupid voters’.

So, if even the stupid voters would have figured the scam out, had it been written to be transparent, then …

socalcon on November 10, 2014 at 4:41 PM

2015’s estimate Obamacare enrollment figures revised down… way, way down

GOP, do the right thing and revise them down to 0.

Bmore on November 10, 2014 at 4:52 PM

Death by a thousand cuts. Isn’t that the Chinese saying? And how many are uninsured now that they’ve lost they’re coverage.

COgirl on November 10, 2014 at 4:54 PM

The Republicans can totally destroy what is left of the democratic party
by sending a full repeal bill for Obama to veto……

Soon enough democrats will see the handwriting on the wall and I think
we will get 67 senators to override an Obama veto…..

redguy on November 10, 2014 at 4:38 PM

Agreed.

But that presumes that the GOP don’t like the notion of seeing themselves in charge of a national healthcare scheme. I tend to think that they aren’t completely unfriendly to being in charge of that much of the national economy, too.

Midas on November 10, 2014 at 5:07 PM

Send this to all you know

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G790p0LcgbI

Schadenfreude on November 10, 2014 at 4:02 PM

How does this not constitute fraud, I wonder?

Midas on November 10, 2014 at 5:09 PM

In 2015 the penalty for not having insurance goes up to $325. Listening to NPR in the car, the radio lady said “this will encourage more people to get insurance”. Yeah, like someone sticking a gun in your ribs encourages you to hand them your wallet.

https://www.healthcare.gov/fees-exemptions/fee-for-not-being-covered/
The fee in 2015

If you don’t have coverage in 2015, you’ll pay the higher of these two amounts:

2% of your yearly household income. (Only the amount of income above the tax filing threshold, about $10,000 for an individual, is used to calculate the penalty.) The maximum penalty is the national average premium for a bronze plan.
$325 per person for the year ($162.50 per child under 18). The maximum penalty per family using this method is $975.

The fee after 2015

The penalty increases every year. In 2016 it’s 2.5% of income or $695 per person. After that it’s adjusted for inflation.

Hey! John Roberts called it a “tax”. Why does healthcare.gov call it a “fee”? Go figure!

fee
fē/
noun
noun: fee; plural noun: fees

1.
a payment made to a professional person or to a professional or public body in exchange for advice or services.
synonyms: payment, wage, salary, allowance;

Sure doesn’t look like a fee to me. What service am I getting for my $325?

LashRambo on November 10, 2014 at 5:12 PM

ObolaCare IS a fraud. It was the biggest bait and switch scam in history. The entire thing is a fraud, by definition.

Problem is, Obola and his Regime are above the law because the (R)’s don’t have the balls to hold him accountable.

Meople on November 10, 2014 at 5:14 PM

There is a dangerous cabal of fascist democrats (progressives), the news media (fascist propagandists), the educationalists (fascist propagandists),and the entertainers (fascist propagandists). This is a very small percentage of the country that has a huge effect.

jukin3 on November 10, 2014 at 5:14 PM

Shocking.

Turns out Obama does have ‘the most transparent Administration in American history,’ just not in the sense they wanted to convey.

Adjoran on November 10, 2014 at 5:27 PM

Whut. You don’t want your gyno or prostate exam done by Big Bertha at the DMV?

The heck you say! Gimme some dat free herf care. Mmm Mmmm Mmmm

/Boorack

Key West Reader on November 10, 2014 at 5:34 PM

What’s the law that choking us
That’s Costing you and me
O-B-A-M-A-C-A-R-E

Hey there, hi there, ho there
You’re as Screwed as you can be
O-B-A-M-A-C-A-R-E

ObamaCare, ObamaCare
Forever costing us until we die!
Die! Die! Die!

Come along and sing a song
Protest if you Dare
O-B-A-M-A-C-A-R-E

portlandon on November 10, 2014 at 5:36 PM

For those employer sponsored policies, the newest thing is this:

If you insure your spouse? You have to pay a $900 penalty ON TOP of the increased premium, if your spouse has a job. Doesn’t matter if the spouse’s job doesn’t afford health care – if your spouse has a job, you pay an extra $900 per year, plus the monthly premium.

/Way to shrink the workforce, Bruck – you ignorant putz!

Key West Reader on November 10, 2014 at 5:50 PM

I thought the law mandated that everyone had to have insurance?

Techster64 on November 10, 2014 at 5:55 PM

But, just this morning, Noah was telling us how AWESOME the new obamacare site is, and how it would INCREASE enrollment … I’m so confused.

Pork-Chop on November 10, 2014 at 5:58 PM

Re-enrollment may be a bigger problem. I heard many of the plans offered last year are canceled so that those who enrolled last year will have to repeat the process this year. Some may not realize this, or they may have an opportunity to think about it again now that they know what the insurance actually delivers and may find it a lower priority.

New enrollments may be outnumbered by those who fail to replace the plans they enrolled in last year.

datavore on November 10, 2014 at 6:50 PM

I thought the law mandated that everyone had to have insurance?
Techster64 on November 10, 2014 at 5:55 PM

The Individual Mandate was declared unconstitutional by SCOTUS in the same ruling that changed the 404care “penalty” to a “tax”…

Newtie and the Beauty on November 10, 2014 at 7:38 PM

Just looked at the offering for my age and area. Premiums are tripled from last year and I can’t figure out one plan from the other. I even have a health insurance license and find this cluster mess infuriating. It is frustrating. I might take a pass this next year and pay the penalty.

karenhasfreedom on November 10, 2014 at 8:17 PM