Report: Immigration activists hearing that Obama will go small on executive amnesty

posted at 6:01 pm on October 29, 2014 by Allahpundit

Don’t get too excited. “Small” in this case means as many as three million illegals get legalized. Amnesty shills wanted that number to be eight million or more.

Could be that this is just a pressure tactic, scaring Obama by threatening to spin his executive order as a sellout among Latinos unless he gives activists exactly what they want. They have a fair point on the strategic reality of it, though. If O decides to pull the trigger, going “small” seems destined to please no one. The GOP will be furious whether the number’s three million or eight million; if Obama’s order is constitutionally dubious, it’s dubious regardless of how many people it applies to. In which case, why not go big and at least make your base happy?

Activists who have consistently called on Obama to “go big” say they are angry about what they’re hearing and are ready to go on the offensive to ensure the administration doesn’t lose the nerve they believe they had to act decisively after the election.

There is growing concern about the range under consideration among activists. The bipartisan Senate bill included protections for about 8 million undocumented immigrants and some, like Democratic Rep. Luis Gutierrez who has been active in the immigration debate, have called for the administration to extend deferment to 3 to 5 million people. Two sources said the numbers they have heard fall below expectations, with one saying it is in the “low seven figures” and another saying it is “3 million.”

“Whether it’s 1 million or 2 million or 7 million, it will be equal criticism,” said Marielena Hincapié, the executive director of the National Immigration Law Center. “This isn’t about appeasing Republicans; he’s never going to appease them.”

It all depends on how broad O makes the scope of his order. Does it apply to illegals who’ve been here for 10 years or more or to those who’ve been here, say, one year or more? Does it apply to younger people, who have many years of work and taxpaying ahead of them, or to older people too? Realistically, any new amnesty is going to reduce the already small odds of comprehensive immigration reform happening in the new GOP Congress to near-zero. Which makes me wonder: If he’s set to do this in December, maybe he’s counting on a signal from Boehner and/or McConnell in November that a deal is on the table if he holds off. That’s the only way O could keep amnesty activists off his back by further delaying an executive order, but that’s also highly unlikely. Maybe Boehner and McConnell should offer him full legalization a la the Gang of Eight bill if he agrees to sign their bill repealing ObamaCare as well. Let him explain to Latino voters why protecting the latter is more important than the former.

Incidentally, is any of this lingering frustration with O over immigration — and not just immigration, of course — giving Latino voters a reason to take a second look at the GOP? Maybe. The new WaPo poll found that fully 50 percent of Latino voters says it doesn’t matter who wins the Senate this year, and twice as many said Republicans winning it would be a good thing (30 percent) than a bad thing (15 percent). See last night’s QOTD for more on that. Or, better yet, see today’s mega-poll of Latinos by Pew gauging their midterm attitudes towards the two parties. On the one hand, Latinos still favor Democrats on the generic ballot 57/28; on the other hand, four years ago they split 65/22. On the one hand, when asked which party shows more concern for Latinos, Dems still lead heavily with 50 percent versus just 10 percent who say the GOP and 35 percent who say there’s no difference; on the other hand, two years ago those numbers split 61/10/23. This is interesting too:

decision

Significant sub-groups of Latinos, including those born in the U.S., are evenly split on O’s decision to postpone his executive order on amnesty. (Then again, should we trust those numbers? Republican-leaning Latinos are mostly angry or disappointed by the decision, which makes me think some respondents took this as a question about the propriety of the order itself and not Obama’s decision to delay it.) Meanwhile:

dealbreaker

Even self-identified Democrats among Latinos say a candidate’s immigration stance isn’t a dealbreaker for them. The question is what about the ones who say that it is — are they already committed liberals, unwinnable by the GOP even if Republicans embrace amnesty tomorrow or are they genuine persuadables who might respond to a Republican role in amnesty? There’s a mix, of course, but in what proportion? The answer to that question will decide how urgent a priority this should be for the GOP over the next two years.


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Comments

It all depends on how broad O makes the scope of his order. Does it apply to illegals who’ve been here for 10 years or more or to those who’ve been here, say, one year or more? Does it apply to younger people, who have many years of work and taxpaying ahead of them, or to older people too?

I prefer No amnesty. But….

If Obama were to do an executive order on illegals, it should only apply to those who have been here 15 years or longer, and have not committed any crimes, and have 15 years of tax returns showing they’ve been productive members of society.

portlandon on October 29, 2014 at 6:05 PM

There is no way illegals or Latinos ever vote en mass for the GOP. Ever.

So border enforcement is the only thing to discuss.

goflyers on October 29, 2014 at 6:06 PM

That’s not the role of the executive, of the President, to make law.

LashRambo on October 29, 2014 at 6:06 PM

If Obama were to do an executive order on illegals, it should only apply to those who have been here 15 years or longer, and have not committed any crimes, and have 15 years of tax returns showing they’ve been productive members of society.

portlandon on October 29, 2014 at 6:05 PM

And yes, I know, just by being here they are committing a crime. I got it.

portlandon on October 29, 2014 at 6:06 PM

He really needs to be impeached over this. The President has ZERO authority to do what he has planned.

What’s devious about thus is that he knows that once he’s done it the GOP won’t do anything to him or to reverse course. Once the illegals are given amnesty they’ll never go home.

Besides, the Chamber of Commerce wants them to stay as well.

Charlemagne on October 29, 2014 at 6:07 PM

Pre-election PR….

albill on October 29, 2014 at 6:11 PM

If he does 3 million it’s going to be 8 million soon, and more.

Why are they printing up 33 million legalization cards? 33 million is more in line with the estimates a lot of us have had regarding the number of illegals in this country, plus apparently Obama is giving leeway for a massisve surge of new immigrants to flood in to the ~ borderless country to take advantage of the Executive Amnesty.

No, we have to do by whatever means is at our disposal, legal or para-legal, we have to stop and nullify any Executive Amnesty. Period. Now that’s what Preibus promised, although he was short on details on exactly how we’d derail Obama’s lawlessness. But derail it we must. Call Ted Cruz. Find the answer.

anotherJoe on October 29, 2014 at 6:11 PM

The POS shouldn’t ‘go’ anything without Congress’ approval.

WhirledPeas on October 29, 2014 at 6:14 PM

Either outright bullshit or:
http://changingminds.org/techniques/general/sequential/ditf.htm
(which is still outright bullshit)

Mimzey on October 29, 2014 at 6:17 PM

We have a lot of American citizens out of work right now. We have a lot of people on food stamps and using other welfare programs. We are paying for a lot of anchor babies that will get freebies until they turn eighteen. Then, the can petition their parents and family to join him and get freebies too. We have two families without a husband and dad, son, brother, because entitled criminals feel it’s their right to come here and break our laws and the democrats advocate for this behavior. We have illegal alien children ambushing our law makers and demanding rights. We have those same dragging coffins through the offices of our law makers. When have you, a citizen, been allowed to protest like that? They are killing our people, taking our jobs, money, and healthcare.
And we stupidly allow our leaders to give them what they demand. John Cornyn has already turned into elected six more years Cornyn wanting these lawbreakers to get what they demand.
We cannot afford to pay for everyone else’s underachievers and baby makers. We can’t even help our own.
And our Marine is still in jail in Mexico.

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on October 29, 2014 at 6:19 PM

So the Latino driven re-alignment of American politics goes the same way as the woman driven re-alignment, and the millenial driven realignment, and the evangelical driven re-alignment.

And we remain a center-right nation. As we always have been and always will be.

kcewa on October 29, 2014 at 6:20 PM

The southwest will now be known as “Norte Mexico” or “Aztlan”. The rest of the US is called “Greater Aztlan”.

Si se puede.

Oil Can on October 29, 2014 at 6:22 PM

Why do so many conservatives think Obama cares about the limits of his executive power?

He doesn’t.

He doesn’t care about your threats. Impeachment accomplishes nothing. There is nothing to defund. Lawsuits take too long and will be made moot.

A Republican Congress that refuses to offer up an alternative are playing right into his hands like a bunch of suckers.

swamp_yankee on October 29, 2014 at 6:27 PM

Obama’s 7 ‘I’s’:

1. Immigration

2. ISIS

3. Iran

4. Insurance

5. Israel

6. Income

7. Individual rights, freedoms and liberty

America, Obama’s I-Me-My-Mine’s going to fvck you on all seven.

You made:

One

Big

Ass

Mistake,

America

Not once, but twice, idjits.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2014 at 6:36 PM

It all depends on how broad O makes the scope of his order.

Does he please ALL of the activists, or just SOME of the activists?

The other UNASKED QUESTION is: Does he PISS OFF a lot of people, or just SOME of the people.

He’s not stupid. If he pisses of A LOT of people, the Democratic Party is dead………and they KNOW IT!

GarandFan on October 29, 2014 at 6:39 PM

If the GOP succeeds in Nov., and this punk preezy is allowed to continue his regal rule by not being challenged for this blatantly illegal action with extreme prejudice, then put a fork in our Republic.
It will prove that the establishment remains spineless, approves of it, or a bit of both. Then they will have effectively lost what little confidence their constituents had in them, and a vast majority of them will never vote for the GOP again.
Of course there will be so many new Obamanista voters the GOP will fade into oblivion in a couple years anyway, but Boner and Mitch will retire in lavish splendor so why should they care anyway.

StubbornGreenBurros on October 29, 2014 at 6:47 PM

Resist We Much on October 29, 2014 at 6:36 PM

A Brit saying what our leaders are too afraid to say.

Sad Country we live in….

Barred on October 29, 2014 at 6:53 PM

It all depends on how broad O makes the scope of his order. Does it apply to illegals who’ve been here for 10 years or more or to those who’ve been here, say, one year or more? Does it apply to younger people, who have many years of work and taxpaying ahead of them, or to older people too?

The answer AP, it is applies to anyone who wants it regardless of how long they have been here. It will be on the honor system.

Wigglesworth on October 29, 2014 at 6:53 PM

Obama doesn’t want to go too big. He’s going to keep dangling that noose hoping the GOP will put the party out of their misery with comprehensive amnesty.

Wigglesworth on October 29, 2014 at 6:55 PM

Wait til after the election… and “small” is relative. 3M would be a gigantic travesty.

MT on October 29, 2014 at 6:56 PM

Someone should inform Obama that the country isn’t his to give away.

bw222 on October 29, 2014 at 7:01 PM

And we remain a center-right nation. As we always have been and always will be.

kcewa on October 29, 2014 at 6:20 PM

Don’t bet on it.

bw222 on October 29, 2014 at 7:05 PM

Head fake right before the election.

He’s going big, count on it.

ButterflyDragon on October 29, 2014 at 7:23 PM

And we remain a center-right nation. As we always have been and always will be.

kcewa on October 29, 2014 at 6:20 PM

Your’re a fool if you take that for granted. We are one amnesty away from becoming a third country.

The Republicans want to dispossess you as much as the Democrats do.

Thresher on October 29, 2014 at 7:31 PM

If he does 3 million it’s going to be 8 million soon, and more.

Why are they printing up 33 million legalization cards?

anotherJoe on October 29, 2014 at 6:11 PM

Sounds like there might be a lot of cards left over. Would it be illegal for bona fide US citizens to use the cards to get freebies, or is it illegal to illegally use cards that are only meant for illegals?

LashRambo on October 29, 2014 at 7:44 PM

It all depends on how broad O makes the scope of his order. Does it apply to illegals who’ve been here for 10 years or more or to those who’ve been here, say, one year or more? Does it apply to younger people, who have many years of work and taxpaying ahead of them, or to older people too?

The answer AP, it is applies to anyone who wants it regardless of how long they have been here. It will be on the honor system.

Wigglesworth on October 29, 2014 at 6:53 PM

That’s the thing. It doesn’t matter how long they’ve supposedly lived here. The “proof” requirements will be a joke — a joke that LaRaza and all the other amnesty pimps are in on, but the American public is not.

The “proof” requirement for length of residency will be something like submitting a copy of a utility bill — and nobody knows how to cut and paste their name onto one of those, right? The thing to remember is that the government never verifies that the “proof” is actually authentic; they just take the applicants’ word for it. (And illegal aliens would never lie to get legal status, right?)

In the 1986 amnesty, the government estimated that at least 1/3 of the approved amnesty applications were based on forged or fraudulent documents, but the government said it was powerless to do anything about it. That was 30 years ago, in an amnesty that was supposed to be for about one million people, and before everybody had easy access to a computer, a scanner, PhotoShop, etc. The fraud in the next amnesty — whether it’s amnesty by EO or amnesty by law — will be off the charts. And that is by design. The government does not have the money, the manpower, or the interest in authenticating the documents supporting amnesty for millions of illegal aliens. They can’t and they won’t do it — just like they didn’t do it for the hundreds of thousands of DREAMer amnesty applicants. The Obama administration admitted last year (in response to a Heritage Foundation FOIA request) that DHS has just been approving the DREAMer amnesty applications, without doing the promised background checks or verifying the information contained in the amnesty applications.

Anyone who thinks the next amnesty will be anything other than a fraud festival free-for-all is kidding themselves.

AZCoyote on October 29, 2014 at 7:57 PM

PROBLEM:
“Illegals” have already committed a crime …. by definition!!

Therefore there can be no path to citizenship, regardless of how many years they have illegally been in the US, and regardless of how many hoops Obama makes them jump through.

Our legislative process defines what is “legal” and “illegal”: NOT THE PRESIDENT!! Therefore, even if Obama wants to grant them special privileges, he can NEVER make “illegals” into “legals” without an act of Congress.

And every time “illegals” register and or attempt to vote or hold a public office or work in a position which requires legal bonding, they are committing additional crimes: regardless of what Obama says or does. And as soon as a competent Attorney General takes over and reforms the Justice Department and actually starts enforcing the law, these illegals will be properly dealt with. And even if Justice at the federal level is slow or absent, “illegals” will be an easy target for civil suits, which will keep them from acquiring assets. A green piece of paper will not protect them, even if it is signed with Obama’s magic pen.

landlines on October 30, 2014 at 12:30 AM

He really needs to be impeached over this. The President has ZERO authority to do what he has planned.

Charlemagne on October 29, 2014 at 6:07 PM

That’s what I think, too. But you are right about the GOP. They don’t really care about the American People or the country. Its all just cronies with money to buy policies, country be damned.

I prefer No amnesty. But….

If Obama were to do an executive order on illegals, it should only apply to those who have been here 15 years or longer, and have not committed any crimes, and have 15 years of tax returns showing they’ve been productive members of society.

portlandon on October 29, 2014 at 6:05 PM

I like the 15 years of tax returns to show productivity but what if all they show is they collected child tax credits and everything else they are not entitled to? What if they received returns which probably most of them did? Then I think they should have to pay stuff back and be disqualified for amnesty. Isn’t filing a tax return when you are illegal and not supposed to be working, probably with a fake SS#, also a crime?

magicbeans on October 30, 2014 at 9:27 AM

Apparently the people this amnesty crap matters to are Obama, the illegals, the Democrats they will vote for and the evil, greedy, cheap azz, Chamber of Crony Capitalism.

magicbeans on October 30, 2014 at 9:30 AM