Sunday poll dump: GOP surging toward the finish line

posted at 11:01 am on October 26, 2014 by Noah Rothman

For weeks, my esteemed colleague Ed Morrissey has predicted late-breaking wave that would carry a number of Republicans into office, even a few the party gave up on months ago. As the final week of the campaign beings, that wave is breaking and Republican candidates for Senate are surging almost across the board.

On Sunday, NBC News released new data from a variety of races. NBC News/Marist surveyed the electoral landscape in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Arkansas, South Dakota, and North Carolina and they found, universally, that the political winds are at the Republicans’ backs.

In states there Senate seats that Republicans need to take control of or hold in order to secure a majority – Kansas, South Dakota, and Arkansas – Republicans have reason for relief this morning. NBC/Marist polled Kansas and found Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) trailing his independent-slash-Democratic opponent, Greg Orman, by a statistically negligible 44 to 45 percent. Why is that cause for Republicans to celebrate? In their last poll, taken from September 27 to October 1, Roberts trailed Orman by 10 points – 38 to 48 percent.

While Orman still remains the more likable candidate in this race and he leads among independent voters by a whopping 34 points, NBC/Marist suggest that the Republican Party is doing the job it needs to do: Branding Orman as a Democrat. Robert’s challenger’s unfavorability rating is up 11 points their last survey, nearly mirroring the collapse of his topline numbers. Barack Obama’s job approval rating in Kansas is a mere 35 points.

In South Dakota, a state in which Democrats invested seven figures late in the campaign cycle as polls supposedly showed GOP Gov. Mike Rounds losing steam in a three-way race against the Democrat and a former Republican campaigning as a Democrat. That was money not well spent, according to NBC/Marist. Rounds secures 43 percent of the vote in a three-way race against Democrat Rick Weiland (29 percent) and former GOP Senator-turned-“friend of Obama” Larry Pressler (16 percent).

In Arkansas, the race is far tighter. Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) leads Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) by just two points, a statistical tie and tighter than NBC/Marist’s poll in the field in the first week of September which showed Cotton leading Pryor by 5 points. But the Real Clear Politics average of polls puts Cotton up over the incumbent by 5.5 percent, and the trends show both candidates gaining support at a commensurate rate as undecided voters tune into the election. If that trend holds until November, it will be hard for Pryor to catch up to Cotton’s lead. Moreover, Cotton remains favorably viewed by a plurality of Arkansas while Pryor is viewed negatively by a near majority of the state’s electorate (49 percent).

If the GOP wins in these states, and does not lose (either on November 4 or in ensuing runoff races) in states like Kentucky and Georgia, a prospect handicappers would probably not bet heavy against, they will be well positioned to take the Senate. The GOP needs to secure wins in states where they are currently favored — West Virginia, Louisiana, and Alaska — to take the 6 seats they need for a bare majority.

But NBC/Marist polled a few other races, and the GOP has a chance to open up other avenues through which they could take a Senate majority.

In Colorado, Sen. Mark Udall’s (D-CO) collapse in the polls continues apace. In NBC/Marist’s poll in the field from September 2 to 4, the Democratic incumbent led Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) by 6 points with 28 to 42 percent. Today, NBC/Marist found a shift toward Gardner of 7 points. The GOP senatorial nominee in the Centennial State now leads his opponent by a point at 46 to 45 percent.

In Iowa, state Sen. Joni Ernst is breaking away. NBC/Maris found Ernst leading Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) by 49 to 46 percent. In September, she led her opponent by just 46 to 44 percent. Again, both candidates are gaining undecided support as marginal voters begin to tune into the election at a commensurate pace, but that is bad news for Braley who needs to make up some lost ground. NBC/Marist found that the gender gap in the Hawkeye State has narrowed to a point that would be difficult for any Democratic candidate to overcome – Ernst leads among men by 12 points but only trails among women by 5 points, down from 11 points in their last poll.

But it was NBC’s last finding that was its most interesting. A wave election can take with it some flotsam that was never thought likely to make it to shore but ends up benefiting from the natural momentum of its environment. That looks to be happening in North Carolina. There, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, who has consistently trailed Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) in the polls, the race is now tied at exactly 43 percent. In September, Hagan led Tillis by 4 points, 44 to 40 percent. Moreover, NBC/Marist found that libertarian candidate Sean Haugh, who runs on a platform which advocates for “more weed, less war,” is picking up an unlikely 7 percent of the vote. Voters are almost always more predisposed to tell pollster they back a third-party candidate than they are to actually cast a vote for one.

NBC found that North Carolina voters are not fond of any of the candidates on the ballot this cycle, but Hagan has higher negatives (48 percent) than Tillis (44 percent). Barack Obama, meanwhile, enjoys a 38 percent job approval rating in the Tar Heel State.

Democrats’ hopes for blunting a GOP wave rest in the unlikely prospect that states like Georgia will go blue on the night of November 4, despite the fact that it remains a conservative state and 2014 is clearly a Republican year. The majority party also firmly believes that intangibles like the party’s “ground game,” or the Bannock Street operation which is aimed at generating presidential-year levels of turnout among minorities, will rescue the party from utter defeat. That is possible, and there are other factors, like Colorado’s mailing of a ballot to every voter in the state, which could increase marginal voter participation, that could buoy the state’s sinking Democrats. What NBC/Marist found is that all of these races save the South Dakota Senate contest are within the margins of error and are statistically tied. The race for control of the Senate could not be any closer heading to the final campaign week.

What NBC/Marist also found, however, was a universal shift in momentum toward Republican candidates and away from Democrats and the independents who would caucus with them if elected. A late-breaking wave is cresting. While Democrats expect a few surprises in their favor on election night, Republicans are just as likely to enjoy a surprise victory or two if these conditions continue to develop.


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Comments

Getting ready to dance in the end zone!!

abobo on October 26, 2014 at 11:06 AM

The crooked dems must have some scheme conceived to steal this election…

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2014 at 11:11 AM

Hope so….Every single Republican must vote…the Dems’ ground game is superior…

Redford on October 26, 2014 at 11:11 AM

Proofreader on strike? A very poorly written post.

reagansoptimism on October 26, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Barack Obama, meanwhile, enjoys a 38 percent job approval rating in the Tar Heel State.

Really, Noah….enjoys?

None so blind………

herm2416 on October 26, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Bear in mind this is a poll performed by dems. Just saying. Don’t get cocky keep pushing and don’t let up until after 2016.

This is a marathon.

People have seen what the commiecrats have in store and they do not want it.

dogsoldier on October 26, 2014 at 11:16 AM

reagansoptimism on October 26, 2014 at 11:14 AM

That’s just the new Hotair loose canon style, go with it.

abobo on October 26, 2014 at 11:16 AM

Proofreader on strike? A very poorly written post.

reagansoptimism on October 26, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Ugh, consider the writing source. I read halfway through the article before I noticed the author, I typically steer clear of his drivel.

herm2416 on October 26, 2014 at 11:17 AM

While Democrats expect a few surprises in their favor on election night, Republicans are just as likely to enjoy a surprise victory or two if these conditions continue to develop.

Of course, if you get something like a Nunn win in Georgia or a Scott Walker loss in Wisconsin, that will be the only race of importance to the media the next day, and Nunn and/or Mary Burke will become the Democratic Party’s next media superstar (and if more than one woman wins, the entire narrative of election night will be women’s hostility towards the GOP, no matter how many other elections the Republicans win, including any upset victories).

jon1979 on October 26, 2014 at 11:17 AM

Debbie Wassermen Schultz says the Democrats are going to keep the Congress… so there!!!

Walter L. Newton on October 26, 2014 at 11:18 AM

http://wonkette.com/564064/latino-guy-delivers-absentee-ballots-in-arizona-youll-never-guess-what-happens-next

The above is the dirty dems campaign stratedgy. Its all they have. Steal every vote they can. Get union thugs to do the dirty work, hire illegals, dead people, voters who have dual residence, you name it they do it all. It’s all they have since they stand for nothing except communism and destroying the country a little bit at a time. Lately a lot real quickly.

rodguy911 on October 26, 2014 at 11:19 AM

Barack Obama, meanwhile, enjoys a 38 percent job approval rating in the Tar Heel State.

Really, Noah….enjoys?

herm2416 on October 26, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Well, compared to his 35% approval rating in Kansas, I guess he enjoys the 38% in NC.

J.S.K. on October 26, 2014 at 11:21 AM

Wasn’t Romney “surging toward the finish line” in 2012?

Oxymoron on October 26, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Well, compared to his 35% approval rating in Kansas, I guess he enjoys the 38% in NC.

J.S.K. on October 26, 2014 at 11:21 AM

Okay, that made me laugh right out loud!!

herm2416 on October 26, 2014 at 11:26 AM

http://wonkette.com/564064/latino-guy-delivers-absentee-ballots-in-arizona-youll-never-guess-what-happens-next

The above is the dirty dems campaign stratedgy. Its all they have. Steal every vote they can. Get union thugs to do the dirty work, hire illegals, dead people, voters who have dual residence, you name it they do it all. It’s all they have since they stand for nothing except communism and destroying the country a little bit at a time. Lately a lot real quickly.

rodguy911 on October 26, 2014 at 11:19 AM

Did you bother to read the article. There was NO VOTER FRAUD uncovered. No one was stealing anything. No one did anything illegal.

Your powers of perception are AMAZING.

Walter L. Newton on October 26, 2014 at 11:28 AM

Show me the election night returns. That’s all I care about. Democrats will find any way to cheat if it means holding onto their precious government authority and not relinquishing it to those nasty, evil Republicans.

Aizen on October 26, 2014 at 11:35 AM

I just saw Rachel Maddow is on her way to do her show next week from Colorado. I’m sure that can only help. And UpChuck Todd heavily promoted Scott Walker’s opponent, each promo photo shot into commercial seeming being them staring lovingly into each other’s eyes.

Marcus on October 26, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Two words: Voter fraud

Ukiah on October 26, 2014 at 11:36 AM

It has to be said: From your keyboard to God’s ears. Please, please, please, please, pleeeeease!

Rational Thought on October 26, 2014 at 11:38 AM

I’m cautiously optimistic. There was another poll I saw today that had Udall +1. But that involved YouGov so I discredit it. Plus I think CBS and NYT were involved as well. Would love to see more details on the NBC polling.

COgirl on October 26, 2014 at 11:39 AM

Democrats have gotten this far on corruption, fraud and using government agencies to intimidate their way to power. They are not giving that up easily.

Expect widespread cheating again.

But I hope the polling is skewing for the Democrat cheating.

petunia on October 26, 2014 at 11:41 AM

The Democraps voted in step for Obamacare. Al Franken who got votes from a missing car trunk, was the 60th vote for Obamacare. They will lie, cheat and steal to achieve their aims. Screw them! They could find work in Putin’s Russia, if they are swept out of office. I am praying we can turn the United Socialist States around.

Krupnikas on October 26, 2014 at 11:43 AM

Show me the election night returns. That’s all I care about. Democrats will find any way to cheat if it means holding onto their precious government authority and not relinquishing it to those nasty, evil Republicans rather than submitting to the will of the American people.

Aizen on October 26, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Even more heinous.

Oxymoron on October 26, 2014 at 11:43 AM

Think of Obama’s smug smile after the 2012 elections (the one where he’s holding the phone and shrugging) and get motivated to wipe it off his face. We want him humbled.

thebrokenrattle on October 26, 2014 at 11:43 AM

Proofreader on strike? A very poorly written post.

reagansoptimism on October 26, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Ugh, consider the writing source. I read halfway through the article before I noticed the author, I typically steer clear of his drivel.

herm2416 on October 26, 2014 at 11:17 AM

Prepositions, commas, coherent sentences…

Who needs them?

Apparently those who matter in the Hot Air administration just don’t care enough to demand better.

Yoop on October 26, 2014 at 11:46 AM

A cresting wave during low tide does not go far…

albill on October 26, 2014 at 11:46 AM

Hmmmm… I don’t think the verbiage really matched the extremely positive headline. When I saw the headline, I expected to read how GOP candidates were running away. But Ernst is still in a dogfight, Cotton’s lead seems to have shrunk, Gardner is only up by 1 point, Tillis is tied, and Roberts is still losing.

I’d love to see a massive wave that shellacks Obama again, but an objective observer would say that its still very much in doubt.

forheremenaremen on October 26, 2014 at 11:48 AM

Your powers of perception are AMAZING.

Walter L. Newton on October 26, 2014 at 11:28 AM

That proves nothing. It’s a non sequitur. There is no way of knowing what those ballots contained. It is a legal loophole that honest people can collect ballots from those can’t make it to the ballot box or don’t trust USPS. The “tell” is the demeanor of the person who delivers those ballots. “FK you gringo” doesn’t really denote an honest citizen just trying to perform a civic duty for those disadvantaged folk who can’t make it on election day.
It’s legal for the IRS to simply cliam you owe massive amounts of money without proving you do. That’s backwards too, and should be overturned.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 11:52 AM

You are not taking into account the Dems vote stealing operation.

Rook on October 26, 2014 at 11:57 AM

I’ll believe it when I see it. I have little faith in the American voters. They elected Obama twice.

alanstern on October 26, 2014 at 11:57 AM

AMEN ! alanstern

Rook on October 26, 2014 at 11:58 AM

Proofreader on strike? A very poorly written post.

reagansoptimism on October 26, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Ugh, consider the writing source. I read halfway through the article before I noticed the author, I typically steer clear of his drivel.

herm2416 on October 26, 2014 at 11:17 AM

Boy, you guys are a tough crowd. You try putting together an analysis like this on short notice and see how you do.

The only part that truly bothers me is:

In Iowa, state Sen. Joni Ernst is breaking away. NBC/Maris found Ernst leading Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) by 49 to 46 percent. In September, she led her opponent by just 46 to 44 percent.

That is a dumb thing to write.

bobs1196 on October 26, 2014 at 11:59 AM

We want him humbled.

thebrokenrattle on October 26, 2014 at 11:43 AM

Good Luck With That – the Dolt has other plans…

Obama’s post-election plans for a secret radical agenda
http://nypost.com/2014/10/26/obamas-plans-for-a-secret-radical-agenda-after-the-elections/

Neutered is what “we” want!

Pelosi Schmelosi on October 26, 2014 at 11:59 AM

Pressler is fading in SD because he was discovered to be just another Tom Daschle, i.e., Pressler has his DC house listed as his primary residence for the DC homestead exemption.

Pat Roberts isn’t the only one who has a “DC insider; he doesn’t live here problem.”

Wethal on October 26, 2014 at 12:00 PM

I have little faith in the American voters. They elected Obama twice.

alanstern on October 26, 2014 at 11:57 AM

Part of his getting elected was not just “stupid American voters voted for him”..it was, in part, people who sat home and didn’t vote in order to “teach the repubs a lesson”, and of course, fraud.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 12:01 PM

That proves nothing. It’s a non sequitur. There is no way of knowing what those ballots contained. It is a legal loophole that honest people can collect ballots from those can’t make it to the ballot box or don’t trust USPS. The “tell” is the demeanor of the person who delivers those ballots. “FK you gringo” doesn’t really denote an honest citizen just trying to perform a civic duty for those disadvantaged folk who can’t make it on election day.
It’s legal for the IRS to simply cliam you owe massive amounts of money without proving you do. That’s backwards too, and should be overturned.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 11:52 AM

So, when GOP campaign workers come into the same polling places in that community (which the article points out they do) and stuffs a hand full of ballots into the box, ballots that he/she collected from voters, ballots that he/she is helping get to the polling place, then that’s voter fraud too.

By your description.

Did YOU read the article?

Walter L. Newton on October 26, 2014 at 12:02 PM

Neutered is what “we” want!

Pelosi Schmelosi on October 26, 2014 at 11:59 AM

I was being gracious, being Sunday at all. Neutered, humbled, humiliated….we want to prove that “even a God-King can bleed” (from “300”).

thebrokenrattle on October 26, 2014 at 12:05 PM

like Colorado’s mailing of a ballot to every voter in the state, which could increase marginal fraudulent voter participation

FTFY.

SDN on October 26, 2014 at 12:06 PM

No incumbents.

Galtian on October 26, 2014 at 12:06 PM

AMEN ! alanstern

Rook on October 26, 2014 at 11:58 AM

“Principal conservative”, how you doin’ this morning, old timer?

bimmcorp on October 26, 2014 at 12:09 PM

Yeah but… what if Democrats don’t let any Republican in to vote?

JellyToast on October 26, 2014 at 12:16 PM

For our Prog-troll friends on Nov 5th…

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Puffs-Plus-Lotion-Facial-Tissues-3-Family-Boxes-124-Tissues-per-Box/17173948

Pelosi Schmelosi on October 26, 2014 at 12:16 PM

Hmmmm… I don’t think the verbiage really matched the extremely positive headline. When I saw the headline, I expected to read how GOP candidates were running away. But Ernst is still in a dogfight, Cotton’s lead seems to have shrunk, Gardner is only up by 1 point, Tillis is tied, and Roberts is still losing.

I’d love to see a massive wave that shellacks Obama again, but an objective observer would say that its still very much in doubt.

forheremenaremen on October 26, 2014 at 11:48 AM

That was my reaction, too. There may be a surge, but I’m not seeing it in these numbers. It looks like a close election that will be decided by turnout – and the Dems have a very good ground game.

sauropod on October 26, 2014 at 12:17 PM

This is encouraging, but never underestimate the GOP’s ability to screw up an election. And by not articulating how they would govern if handed the majority, they’re already taking the first step on that slippery slope.

Conservative Mischief on October 26, 2014 at 12:20 PM

I’m excited to see Obama, Harry and Dems possibly denied the Senate but I have no high expectations or excitement for the GOP in control. It’s going to be more of the same: Talk the talk of conservatism but behind close doors make deals to keep government going on as it has been going on

journeymike on October 26, 2014 at 12:25 PM

Hmmmm… I don’t think the verbiage really matched the extremely positive headline. When I saw the headline, I expected to read how GOP candidates were running away. But Ernst is still in a dogfight, Cotton’s lead seems to have shrunk, Gardner is only up by 1 point, Tillis is tied, and Roberts is still losing.

I’d love to see a massive wave that shellacks Obama again, but an objective observer would say that its still very much in doubt.

forheremenaremen on October 26, 2014 at 11:48 AM

That was my reaction, too. There may be a surge, but I’m not seeing it in these numbers. It looks like a close election that will be decided by turnout – and the Dems have a very good ground game.

sauropod on October 26, 2014 at 12:17 PM

In fairness to Noah, this is how the poll is being seen in places like USA Today and Politico. (Not sure why I’m being so protective of him, but anyway:)) It could be that people are seeing trend lines that are unlikely to be reversed before election time. But you’re right: on the surface these don’t give evidence of a GOP runaway.

bobs1196 on October 26, 2014 at 12:25 PM

So, when GOP campaign workers come into the same polling places in that community (which the article points out they do) and stuffs a hand full of ballots into the box, ballots that he/she collected from voters, ballots that he/she is helping get to the polling place, then that’s voter fraud too.

By your description.

Did YOU read the article?

Walter L. Newton on October 26, 2014 at 12:02 PM

Strawman.
Yes I read the article. Thats what I based my opinion on. What part of my post do you dispute? I simply pointed out the ease of fraud. Just more Alinsky..”Use their rules against them”.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 12:26 PM

It looks like a close election that will be decided by turnout – and the Dems have a very good ground game.

sauropod on October 26, 2014 at 12:17 PM

I suggest you read about voter turnout in this election…and it doesn’t favor Progs. This is looking very much like 2010 all over again.

Pelosi Schmelosi on October 26, 2014 at 12:37 PM

It would appear that all of our favorite drones from the Collective are out engaging in their characteristic fascist activist wackoism this weekend.

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 12:38 PM

Minnesota looks to be a dark horse state. The DFL is still the favorite, but the Strib poll today has the GOP guv candidate within 6% of Dayton and McFadden with a 9% deficit to Franken.

Adjusted for the usual DFL 3% poll windage, it means that if Mills scores big in the 8th CD and Westrom does the same in the 7th CD, there could (could) be razor thin margins on Election Day.

The DFL is scrambling to keep their heads above water with the usual “Margin of Fraud” , the Donks are still the favorites.

Interestingly, the Strib ran and editorial cartoon today “blaming” the GOP gains on voter suppression.

They must be seeing some ugly internals to start the inoculations so soon.

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2014 at 12:49 PM

Please tell me Republicans have learned from 2012 and have a competitive ground game. They will never win another election if they don’t find a way to counter the Democrats’ no-info voter farms.

Count to 10 on October 26, 2014 at 12:51 PM

You’re not taking into consideration all the dead and illegal voters. They make up at least 5% of the electorate.

njrob on October 26, 2014 at 12:52 PM

I’ll believe it when I see it. I have little faith in the American voters. They elected Obama twice.

alanstern on October 26, 2014 at 11:57 AM

Agreed. Even if 5% of the vote was fraud, that leaves 47% of the vote as stupid! Ignorance and stupidity are celebrated as virtues these days.

Kaffa on October 26, 2014 at 12:54 PM

All these races are within range of the Ali Hussein and the 40 Aliens to steal. The Rs will fall just short and after that the party goes off into the wilderness.

Annar on October 26, 2014 at 1:00 PM

The GOP senatorial nominee in the Centennial State now leads his opponent by a point at 46 to 45 percent.

Other polls show Gardner with a bigger lead. The RCP average has Cory ahead almost 3 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html

In addition, Rs hold a big advantage in Colorado as far as returned ballots are concerned.

Also, in NH, signs are that Scott Brown is surging and Shaheen is losing.

cat_owner on October 26, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Gardner only +1 and -1 in two new polls. Hope that early voting surge is too much to overcome.

swamp_yankee on October 26, 2014 at 1:05 PM

Agreed. Even if 5% of the vote was fraud, that leaves 47% of the vote as stupid! Ignorance and stupidity are celebrated as virtues these days.

Kaffa on October 26, 2014 at 12:54 PM

Would that be the same 47% that are on the dole like Mitt Romney got bludgeoned for mentioning in 2012??

bimmcorp on October 26, 2014 at 1:06 PM

Also, in NH, signs are that Scott Brown is surging and Shaheen is losing.

cat_owner on October 26, 2014 at 1:02 PM

The 2 had another debate on Thursday night that was “moderated” by Wolfman Blitz, but CNN ended up never showing it! It was supposed to be shown on tape delay Thursday night at 11 PM, but got pre-empted when the story about the NYC Ebola doctor broke.

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2014 at 1:09 PM

Hope that early voting surge is too much to overcome.

swamp_yankee on October 26, 2014 at 1:05 PM

I think that was a tactical mistake. Any fraud has to be in the number range to not be too obvious. We need a surge at the last minute imo.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 1:19 PM

Would that be the same 47% that are on the dole like Mitt Romney got bludgeoned for mentioning in 2012??

bimmcorp on October 26, 2014 at 1:06 PM

Indeed.

Kaffa on October 26, 2014 at 1:21 PM

The one thing in the Republicans favor is that, in states with a Democrat incumbent, people know they support Harry Reid and Obama and, under them, nothing is getting done. If you want change, the easy way is to get rid of the Democrat, you know something is going to change that way.

bflat879 on October 26, 2014 at 1:21 PM

The writing on this article is pretty shoddy.

rnb on October 26, 2014 at 1:30 PM

reagansoptimism on October 26, 2014 at 11:14 AM

That’s just the new Hotair loose canon style, go with it.

abobo on October 26, 2014 at 11:16 AM

Noah’s writing is the literary equivalent of walking around with your pants drooping below your butt. It might be fashionable in certain circles.

CurtZHP on October 26, 2014 at 1:38 PM

It looks like a close election that will be decided by turnout – and the Dems have a very good ground game.

sauropod on October 26, 2014 at 12:17 PM

I am the last one to be wearing pom poms for these GOP idiots, but they will probably have a good night on Nov 4th. The trend lines in the individual polls are encouraging for Republican poll watchers and likewise discouraging for Democrat poll watchers. The trends in each poll are moving to, or further into, the GOP column. This is happening in almost every state, which will probably end with some marginal GOP seats being dragged over the finish line.

In addition, the fact that the youth vote is nonexistent now with their disillusionment with Democrats, Democrats only hope for a surprise is with a huge 2012 black turnout. Since they are the only group that is consistent and monolithic in their voting for Democrats.

But Obama is not running again this time.

NWConservative on October 26, 2014 at 1:40 PM

You’re not taking into consideration all the dead and illegal voters. They make up at least 5% of the electorate.

njrob on October 26, 2014 at 12:52 PM

$18 TRILLION in debt…massive waste of taxpayer $$ at CDC…and the Progtards are worried about the “cost” of enacting and enforcing voter ID at the state level:

The Real Cost of Voter Id Laws
In 2011, Republicans have advanced photo ID legislation in at least 35 states. The report concluded that if these 35 states enact a photo ID law, they collectively will spend at least $276 million, and possibly as much as $828 million, in the first four years alone. At a time when states are experiencing huge budget shortfalls, it would be an enormous waste to spend hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to disenfranchise voters.
http://www.democrats.org/the-real-cost-of-photo-id-laws

Pelosi Schmelosi on October 26, 2014 at 1:41 PM

Get the HumpBot video ready…

Eastwood Ravine on October 26, 2014 at 1:42 PM

From the NY Slimes article on “Headlines”:

On Campaign Road, Uneasy Democrats Show Obama Their Tail Lights

…Yet at times, Mr. Obama’s actions and those of his political team have seemed off key to the point of damaging to fellow Democrats. Many of them cringed this month when the first lady, Michelle Obama, traveled to Iowa to campaign for Bruce Braley, a Democratic candidate for the Senate, in one of the nation’s closest races and referred to him repeatedly as “Bruce Bailey.” She returned to the state on Tuesday and joked about the mistake, but when the White House distributed the transcript of her remarks, it referred to Mr. Braley as a candidate for governor.

To some Democratic operatives, the White House detachment and belief that Mr. Obama’s presence in the race could offer a significant boost with the party base is all too reminiscent of the last election featuring an unpopular president in his sixth year…

Cue the Prog teeth-gnashing, hand-wringing, finger-pointing, whining and tears

Pelosi Schmelosi on October 26, 2014 at 1:53 PM

So if President Obama hadn’t used a parliamentary trick to destroy the U.S. healthcare system, what exactly would his legacy have been?
?

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 1:53 PM

So if President Obama hadn’t used a parliamentary trick to destroy the U.S. healthcare system, what exactly would his legacy have been?
?

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 1:53 PM

Surpassing Jimmy Carter as the worst President in the history of the nation?

Being more Nixonian than Nixon?

Athos on October 26, 2014 at 2:03 PM

With Big Government Progressives like Boner and McRino as leaders, what difference, really, does this make?

ConstantineXI on October 26, 2014 at 2:23 PM

Just took a robo poll from some polling group. For purposes of the poll I was a black, hispanic, liberal, always votes, Tea Party leaning, male over 65, with advanced degree education, who doesn’t trust Obama and always votes for the conservative and I think all democrat candidates should tell us if they voted for Obama. And I hate Obamacare.

Oldnuke on October 26, 2014 at 2:42 PM

1) Polls lie. We should have learned in 2012. The State Controlled Media lies as it is told by the White House.
2) The Institutional Republicans lie 99.9% of the time. The Democrats 150% of the time. The Democrat number is because of 3) below.
3) Democrats cheat and have the advantage of unopposed vote fraud everywhere in the country.
4) This does not mean give up, because we should be concerned about shaping the battlefield for the future. Short form, “VOTE, so you can say you tried the peaceful route when things fall apart.”. Work on GOTV because the more people realize that their votes were stolen, fewer will fall for the lies next time. Even if the local Republicans will not help [in our county all the GOTV is being done by our TEA Party]; because that shapes the future battlefield when the Institutional Republicans and the Democrats merge.

Subotai Bahadur on October 26, 2014 at 3:05 PM

The crooked dems must have some scheme conceived to steal this election…

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2014 at 11:11 AM

They do! The Obama Administration has very conveniently delayed release of the 2015 Medicare rates to the insured, until just after the Nov. elections. They have just released the increases in SS Benefits for 2015, 1%,I believe, and they don’t want seniors to see how high their new rates for Medicare will be for 2015.

Simple, and not so transparent for the most transparent administration, ever! Wake up folks!

tomshup on October 26, 2014 at 3:16 PM

Already voted in Georgia against Nunn and Carter and Obama :)

Bet on October 26, 2014 at 3:18 PM

I really hope Roberts loses. The GOP needs to be taught a lesson.

Baggi on October 26, 2014 at 3:37 PM

Surpassing Jimmy Carter as the worst President in the history of the nation?

Being more Nixonian than Nixon?

Athos on October 26, 2014 at 2:03 PM

I think those are bound to be attached to him no matter what the outcome ends up being.

But I just wonder, outside of his signature government seizure of the health care industry, what else has he actually accomplished?

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 3:45 PM

what else has he actually accomplished?

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 3:45 PM

He added 8 trillion to the debt…so there’s that.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 3:50 PM

I hope Roberts wins. We can’t afford to lose that seat.

COgirl on October 26, 2014 at 3:52 PM

Obama’s GOTV will overcome any 3pt advantage a R might think they have. He already told all that he’ll get his voters out. Are they polling “Obama phones”? He said his agenda is on the ballot. When he wins all close elections it will be full steam ahead for his agenda. Obama’s “setup” will look “genius” when this is over. The media will have him walking on water once again. “Community Organized. Transformation Complete.”

Carnac on October 26, 2014 at 4:09 PM

He added 8 trillion to the debt…so there’s that.

Mimzey on October 26, 2014 at 3:50 PM

Yes, fulfillment of the Cloward-Piven Strategy may very well be part of his legacy.

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Being known as the President who brought Ebola to America may be another element of his legacy.

Star Bird on October 26, 2014 at 5:00 PM

I don’t want to sound negative but He still has a pen and a phone.

And the Federal Judiciary.

And the media.

And the rioters.

All he needs is a “National Emergency” to effectively nullify the election.

kcewa on October 26, 2014 at 5:30 PM

A cresting wave during low tide does not go far…

albill on October 26, 2014 at 11:46 AM

.
Excellent observation.

listens2glenn on October 26, 2014 at 6:59 PM

the Democratic incumbent led Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) by 6 points with 28 to 42 percent.

42-28=14, not 6

Noah must be tasking Common Care math.

bgoldman on October 26, 2014 at 11:32 PM

the Democratic incumbent led Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) by 6 points with 28 to 42 percent.

42-28=14, not 6

Looks like Noah’s taking Common Core math.

bgoldman on October 26, 2014 at 11:34 PM