ADP reports 204,000 private-sector jobs added in August

posted at 10:41 am on September 4, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

With the midterm narrative hanging in the balance, the August jobs report released tomorrow may set the tone for the general election campaigns over the next ten weeks. ADP’s private-sector survey suggests that the level of job creation will remain steady, as they show a slight decline from the levels over the last two months at 204,000 jobs added in August. If that holds up in tomorrow’s report, it will keep pace with population growth, but not much else:

Private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from July to August according to the AugustADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Goods-producing employment rose by 41,000 jobs in August, up from 23,000 jobs gained in July. The construction industry added 15,000 jobs over the month, slightly above last month’s gain. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 23,000 jobs in August, the highest total in that sector since December 2012.

Service-providing employment rose by 164,000 jobs in August, down from 190,000 in July. TheADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 51,000 jobs in August, down from 60,000 in July. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 28,000, down from July’s 43,000. The 5,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down almost half from last month’s number.

“August marks the fifth straight month of employment gains above 200,000, continuing an encouraging trend for the U.S. labor market,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.

Even so, it’s the lowest level in the past five months, and significantly down from the big addition in June. ADP’s chart shows that, apart from the June outlier, job growth has been remarkably steady at just above water-treading level in 2014:

adp-2014-08

Bloomberg called this a miss, even though it falls within the 2014 range rather well. So did Investing.com, which expected a rise to 220,000 this month. This result “dampen[s] optimism over the strength of the US labor market,” according to its house analysis. CNBC also noted the miss in a more positive take:

Private sector job creation slowed a touch in August, missing expectations though roughly maintaining the pace of expansion so far in 2014.

A report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics showed employment growth of 204,000 positions, off a touch from the downwardly revised 212,000 in July and well off the 297,000 in June. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected the report to show 220,000 new positions. …

One highlight of the report was manufacturing, which gained 23,000, the best for that sector since December 2012.

Forbes warns that small-business hiring has taken a cooling trend in another payroll-service survey:

On Tuesday Paychex, another payroll provider that specializes in small scale employers, released its monthly Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index. The index looks at changes in rate of worker growth at 350,000 companies. Each business in the sample group has fewer than 50 employees and 80% have fewer than 20.

On a national basis the index decreased slightly in August to 100.99 from 101.11 in July, the slip marks third month on declines in the last for but comes off of a sharp record high in April. The barometer has increased 0.2% in the last 12-months, meaning the growth is picking up modestly.

Their index shows that August was the lowest month in 2014 for small-business hiring, but it’s still above what Paychex showed for the second half of 2013.

The hiring data in these reports don’t give any indication that Americans will have a sharply different attitude toward the economy as they begin to pay attention to the midterm elections. There is still room for that to change, with tomorrow’s actual BLS report and the reports in October for hiring and for Q3 economic expansion that will come just days before the election itself. The just-above-stagnation levels of the past few years looks to continue for a while longer.


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You know what will help? Amnesty.

MMK on September 4, 2014 at 10:50 AM

the reports in October for hiring and for Q3 economic expansion that will come just days before the election itself.

The administration will cook the numbers the way they did in 2012. Or they’ll otherwise render the numbers unavailable if they cannot spin them into suggesting economic recovery.

Happy Nomad on September 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

I think a massive wave of DeathCare mandates in the fall will help these numbers go up considerably.

Nothing says “vibrant economy” quite like forcing people to engage in commerce against their will.

Bishop on September 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

This is excellent since it tops my prediction of only 125,000 jobs created. Keep up the good work and kudos to the media reporting this.

///

Walter L. Newton on September 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

204,000 jobs added in August

Fail. Lots of the Financial blogs have been calling for over 250K job growth for the last month because of “Recovery Summer” in response to the last fictional GDP growth rate released by the Fed.

Johnnyreb on September 4, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Unexpectedly??

Herb on September 4, 2014 at 10:57 AM

Just further evidence that it is up to the government to put Americans to work.

We should build on the efforts of the government assuming control of the failed auto, banking, medical, and housing industries. We must move on to control of the other struggling industries, such as farming, steel, textile, etc.

Eventually we can place all private industries under federal government control, which will guarantee 100% employment, increase benefits for all employees, and increase production across the board.

With 100% of Americans employed and paying taxes, the tax receipts would skyrocket, which would allow for even higher pay for government workers, which would facilitate even larger tax receipts, which would allow for higher pay, which would…

President Obama understands these simple economic concepts and is fighting tirelessly to implement his strategy, but you so-called conservatives just can’t live with the idea of seeing a black man succeed.

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

levels over the last two months at 204,000 jobs added in August. If that holds up in tomorrow’s report, it will keep pace with population growth, but not much else:

Uhm, is “population growth” inclusive or exclusive of all those illegal aliens overi-running the borders each month?

MistyLane on September 4, 2014 at 11:02 AM

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

I still can’t be sure if this is satire or not.

Star Bird on September 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

President Obama understands these simple economic concepts and is fighting tirelessly to implement his strategy, but you so-called conservatives just can’t live with the idea of seeing a black man succeed.

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

For once I agree with you. This kind of action would start a civil war that would take the progressives 200 years to recover from.

Walter L. Newton on September 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

And how many illegals jumped the border last month and are now receiving some sort of benefits?

HotAirian on September 4, 2014 at 11:09 AM

With 100% of Americans employed.

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Only if you count being on welfare as being employed will this ever happen.

bsinc1962 on September 4, 2014 at 11:13 AM

You know what will help? Amnesty.

MMK on September 4, 2014 at 10:50 AM

Foolishness; only $15 minimum wage will increase hiring.

gekkobear on September 4, 2014 at 11:14 AM

I still can’t be sure if this is satire or not.

Star Bird on September 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

Yes, it is.

Patriot Vet on September 4, 2014 at 11:16 AM

The feds will simply redefine how numbers are calculated, and all will be ship shape well before the November elections.

GaltBlvnAtty on September 4, 2014 at 11:16 AM

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

do you really believe 100% of the people residing in this country want to work.

With all the free free government bennies your boy’s providing?

sell it somewhere else, sherlock.

renalin on September 4, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Even with the cooked up second quarter GPD we are only on track for 1.5 percent growth. These numbers do not jibe. Plus I don’t see any great economic growth and I’m along the coast of California. My guess is part time jobs and few full time but on the phone and can’t delve into the report.

jukin3 on September 4, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Are you for real? Which schools did you go to? Those schools need to close.

antisocial on September 4, 2014 at 11:23 AM

I still can’t be sure if this is satire or not.

Star Bird on September 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

Yes it is – and usually quite good.
Read his stuff very carefully and you’ll get it.

dentarthurdent on September 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

President Obama understands these simple economic concepts and is fighting tirelessly to implement his strategy, but you so-called conservatives just can’t live with the idea of seeing a black man succeed.

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

I know. Look at what this type of ‘vision’ can create. Utopia for all. A solid currency. Endless possibilities. I don’t know how anyone would get in the way of such progress./

Patriot Vet on September 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

President Obama understands these simple economic concepts and is fighting tirelessly to implement his strategy, but you so-called conservatives just can’t live with the idea of seeing a black man succeed.

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

I wondered what he did when he wasn’t playing golf.

jmtham156 on September 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

I’m nearing the eighth month of being out of work.

Hopefully, if/when the fast food employees finagle the standard $15/hr minimum wage, I’ll be knocking out greasy fast food and living high on the lobster.

/

Mark Boabaca on September 4, 2014 at 11:29 AM

We should build on the efforts of the government assuming control of the failed auto, banking, medical, and housing industries.

Those efforts hamstrung the country to the benefit of select constituencies (crony capitalism).

Were you, perhaps, dropped on your head as a baby?

socalcon on September 4, 2014 at 11:31 AM

Foolishness; only $15 minimum wage will increase hiring.

gekkobear on September 4, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Dam straight. Raise the minimum cost of unskilled labor to $15 an hour and I’m just sure companies all over will start hiring those more valuable workers in droves – cuz clearly at $15 an hour they MUST have much better skills and be far more productive.
Or they’ll all get laid off – one or the other, I’m sure….

I personally would fire any min wage worker who went out on strike for $15/hour – plenty of unemployed high school kids willing to take their place.

dentarthurdent on September 4, 2014 at 11:31 AM

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

I still can’t be sure if this is satire or not.

Star Bird on September 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

And remember, Satire spelled backwards is Snark…well o.k.
it isn’t, but it’s damn close!!

ToddPA on September 4, 2014 at 11:32 AM

Are you for real? Which schools did you go to? Those schools need to close.

antisocial on September 4, 2014 at 11:23 AM

I heard Frank went to the Haaaaahvaaaaahhd School of Economics, Maths, Communist Political Puffery and Sock Puppetry….

dentarthurdent on September 4, 2014 at 11:34 AM

With 100% of Americans employed and paying taxes, the tax receipts would skyrocket, which would allow for even higher pay for government workers, which would facilitate even larger tax receipts, which would allow for higher pay, which would…

Frank Lib

Please point to an iota of success…

socalcon on September 4, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Foolishness; only $15 minimum wage will increase hiring.

gekkobear on September 4, 2014 at 11:14 AM

and paid for contraceptives for all through Obamacare

DanMan on September 4, 2014 at 11:38 AM

And – BTW – I actually did flip burgers at McDonald’s when I was in high school – for min wage, which was about $2 an hour – and within 6 months I got promoted to shift lead and got a pay raise because I stuck with it, did the job right, and put up with going home a greasy smelly mess after every shift.
But that was NOT my ultimate goal as a lifetime career – it was a freakin part-time high school min wage job for pocket money until I left for college – and that’s all it was.

dentarthurdent on September 4, 2014 at 11:42 AM

And remember, Satire spelled backwards is Snark…well o.k.
it isn’t, but it’s damn close!!

ToddPA on September 4, 2014 at 11:32 AM

LOL!

And if you rearrange the letters in “Frank Lib” you get “I am Lord Voldemort” – I think…..

dentarthurdent on September 4, 2014 at 11:44 AM

The hiring data in these reports don’t give any indication that Americans will have a sharply different attitude toward the economy as they begin to pay attention to the midterm elections.

People don’t care one whit about sunshiny, recovery summer stats when, in real life, they’re hurting.

whatcat on September 4, 2014 at 11:47 AM

200,000 people had to add another part-time job to get by in the ObamaEconomy

faraway on September 4, 2014 at 12:23 PM

Eventually we can place all private industries under federal government control, which will guarantee 100% employment, increase benefits for all employees, and increase production across the board.

With 100% of Americans employed and paying taxes, the tax receipts would skyrocket, which would allow for even higher pay for government workers, which would facilitate even larger tax receipts, which would allow for higher pay, which would…

President Obama understands these simple economic concepts and is fighting tirelessly to implement his strategy, but you so-called conservatives just can’t live with the idea of seeing a black man succeed.

Frank Lib on September 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Very clever satire Frank.

Of course, the only countries with 100% employment are the socialist ones, where 100% employment is required by law, otherwise no bread this week.

Yes, Obama understands them as only one could. :)

itsspideyman on September 4, 2014 at 1:07 PM

I still can’t be sure if this is satire or not.

Star Bird on September 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

Yes it is – and usually quite good.
Read his stuff very carefully and you’ll get it.

dentarthurdent on September 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

Satire is good when you have to read it twice to make sure. It’s even better when the other side starts quoting it. FrankLib is quite capable of both.

His work is at times simply awesome.

AJsDaddie on September 4, 2014 at 1:55 PM

And 90%+ of the new jobs are likely part-time.

Ain’t it fun livin’ in Obamaville?

Meople on September 4, 2014 at 2:16 PM

I think a massive wave of DeathCare mandates in the fall will help these numbers go up considerably.

Nothing says “vibrant economy” quite like forcing people to engage in commerce against their will.

Bishop on September 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

A lot like how WWII “ended” the Great Depression after the WPA’s decade-long massive government spending didn’t quite get the job done? Of course, 4 years of civilian rationing didn’t exactly help that sector of the economy.

Steve Eggleston on September 4, 2014 at 3:08 PM

With 100% of Americans employed and paying taxes, the tax receipts would skyrocket, which would allow for even higher pay for government workers, which would facilitate even larger tax receipts, which would allow for higher pay, which would…

You forgot the little wealth creation part.

Like a snake eating itself…

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 4, 2014 at 3:30 PM