Survey USA shows GOP prospects brightening in Georgia

posted at 4:01 pm on August 20, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats hoped to steal a march on Republicans in Georgia as they continue to assail the GOP’s lock on the South, but the project seems to be going in the other direction. Survey USA took a look at the ballot before the general election starts in earnest after Labor Day, and shows that the GOP has a comfortable lead in both big races. Michelle Nunn’s name recognition was supposed to give Democrats a lift in the Senate race to fill the open seat left by Saxby Chambliss’ retirement, but surprise GOP nominee David Perdue has quickly reached the 50% mark in its poll:

In an election today for US Senator, to fill an open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue defeats Democrat Michelle Nunn 50% to 41%. (Michelle is Sam Nunn’s daughter.) Libertarian Amanda Swafford gets 3% today. 6% are undecided. Perdue’s lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. Atlanta votes Democratic. Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican. The contest has national ramifications; Republicans need to hold the seat to have a chance to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.

That’s a big shift for Perdue from Survey USA’s June poll, when he led by just 5 points at 43/38. Nunn leads among women, but only barely at 46/44, within the margin of error. She also barely leads among young voters (18-34YOs) by 45/41, while Perdue leads all other age demos by eight or more points, and by 17 in the next youngest demo of 35-49YOs, 54/37. Perdue has more than a 2:1 advantage among independents, 54/26, and leads all income demos above $40K annual income.

This isn’t a big surprise, as Nunn has been struggling even before the Republican primary in which Perdue beat the favored Jack Kingston for the nomination. The RCP average has Perdue up four points prior to this Survey USA poll, but only one poll had Nunn in the lead, and that was within the MOE. The last two polls prior to this had Perdue up six points (before the primary) and seven points (Insider Advantage last week).

The bigger surprise might be the gubernatorial race, where Democrats thought that Nathan Deal was vulnerable against Jimmy Carter’s grandson Jason Carter. That looks less likely now:

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

Democrats really doubled down on the royalty argument in Georgia, huh? How’s that working out for them?

Hunt may be taking away more votes from Deal, but he’s not taking away nearly enough to matter. That’s a problem for Carter, too, because those votes may come back home to Deal when it becomes clear that Hunt won’t stand a chance in the race as either a winner or a spoiler. The fact that Carter is slightly undercutting Nunn in the survey doesn’t bode well for his chances against Deal. Like Nunn, Carter only gets 26% of the independent vote, and unlike Nunn is losing the female vote. Carter had led earlier polls in July, but Deal now leads the RCP average before this poll gets calculated into it. This nine-point lead follows a four-point lead last week and another nine-point lead in July in the CBS/NYT/YouGov poll of nearly 2600 respondents.

Republicans look ready for a state-ballot sweep in Georgia, with double-digit leads in all of the other races. If Democrats wanted to roll back the South from GOP control, they picked the wrong state for the project, it seems.


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In Alaska too

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:06 PM

Lugar is going to soil his Depends!

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:06 PM

Bishop!

Ricard on August 20, 2014 at 4:07 PM

…crud…

Ricard on August 20, 2014 at 4:07 PM

I hate Lugar, passionately, along with all the R losers. You can all go to Hell, you traitors.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:07 PM

Hey, Ricard – the best Bishops are the ones not planned for. Also, tip – say what you wish to say. If it happens to be a Bishop, that’s a bonus…but not even Bishop gets anything for it. It’s all just one of the HA idiosyncrasies.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:09 PM

Plus, thank God that the Bishops replaced the so stupid “First”s.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:10 PM

Hagan is only ahead by 1 point.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:10 PM

By the time November rolls around the Democrats will be in hiding…

PatriotRider on August 20, 2014 at 4:11 PM

Abbott is ahead of Davis by 13 points.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:11 PM

Begich, Landrieu, Pryor, Udall must, must, must go the way of Blanche Lincoln.

The Land deserves NO less.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:12 PM

Is there any senate race that is going well for the Democrats?

joekenha on August 20, 2014 at 4:12 PM

The Democrats are a plague upon the land…

PatriotRider on August 20, 2014 at 4:13 PM

Dog Eater will grant 6 million amnesty in an effort to “help” the D-rats…

PatriotRider on August 20, 2014 at 4:14 PM

Thank you, President Obama!

Ned Pepper on August 11, 2014 at 3:47 PM

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:15 PM

More GOP infighting. I like it.

Ned Pepper on July 18, 2014 at 12:46 PM

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:15 PM

Nothing to see here..
Only fearmongering and scaring the populace
Ned Pepper on August 11, 2014 at 12:46 PM

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:16 PM

We’re now less than 80 days from the election and the D’s chances don’t seem good to hold any of the close seats. It’s time for the GOP to step on the gas and go for all of these elections. If we win enough it will make it hard on the D’s to recapture in ’16.

Tater Salad on August 20, 2014 at 4:18 PM

We now know who lostmotherland is…
In response to the question ‘How do you think Ted Cruz became a Senator?’ one of Hot Air’s resident Progtard ‘scholars’ responded:

‘Gerrymandering.’
lostmotherland on October 17, 2013 at 1:39 PM

So the State of Texas, IN ITS FVCKING ENTIRETY, is gerrymandered?
Gerrymandering only factors into House seats and state/local districts. And, of course, it is not limited to one party
- Me
lostmotherland = Touré
Resist We Much on November 14, 2013 at 7:04 PM


Can’t make this up in the best/worst of fiction.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:19 PM

I don’t know why but I was never worried about Georgia.

Cindy Munford on August 20, 2014 at 4:20 PM

OT – Badly beaten before shooting.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:23 PM

Is there any senate race that is going well for the Democrats?

joekenha on August 20, 2014 at 4:12 PM

Illinois, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Delaware. Plus California and the other states with incumbent Democrats where there is no race this year. They are doing real well in states without elections.

No Truce With Kings on August 20, 2014 at 4:28 PM

Was anyone seriously worried about Georgia? I wasn’t.

Missy on August 20, 2014 at 4:34 PM

‘Gerrymandering.’
lostmotherland on October 17, 2013 at 1:39 PM

Ah…that was one for the archives.

What happened to that little troll? Still lost in the motherland?

Missy on August 20, 2014 at 4:35 PM

How sad that we think this is good news.

Bigbullets on August 20, 2014 at 4:36 PM

I don’t know why but I was never worried about Georgia.

Cindy Munford on August 20, 2014 at 4:20 PM

Was anyone seriously worried about Georgia? I wasn’t.

Missy on August 20, 2014 at 4:34 PM

I think there was this idea that name recognition for Nunn might put GA in play for the Dems. But it’s not one of the hotter reaces around.

Bitter Clinger on August 20, 2014 at 4:38 PM

joekenha on August 20, 2014 at 4:12 PM

Dick Durbin?

This is great news about Georgia. I think Purdue will be fine as a Senator. He won’t be a Ted Cruz, but don’t expect him to be a Lindsay Graham either.

cat_owner on August 20, 2014 at 4:38 PM

There are no moderate Democrats in the Senate or in the governors’ houses any more.

Call these candidates Michelle Nunn Obama and Jason Carter Obama.

22044 on August 20, 2014 at 4:39 PM

Bitter Clinger on August 20, 2014 at 4:38 PM

Well there was those big names of John Warner and Dick Lugar helping Nunn out, don’t forget.

Cindy Munford on August 20, 2014 at 4:44 PM

Now is the time to throw a few hundred thou into Illinois (outside the Chicago market) on behalf of Durbin’s opponent.
If he has to spend money to counter attacks, that’s money that won’t be spent elsewhere.
Given Quinn’s unpopularity, there just might be an opportunity to scare the **** out of Dick Turban.

either orr on August 20, 2014 at 4:50 PM

Georgia was always a Democrat fantasy. Nunn only ever led in polls because of her father and name recognition, but her reluctance to take positions and the certainty of her vote for Reid were bound to catch up to her.

And Perdue has some name recognition, too!

Adjoran on August 20, 2014 at 5:08 PM

Good post Ed. Like I said on the McConnell thread,(between beating up on Allah a bit) I wonder what kind of polling data the national GOP has now. Across the nation, in different races, the GOP has become very aggressive. We might be looking at a wave election. Well, we’ll know in less than 90 days.

flackcatcher on August 20, 2014 at 5:14 PM

Nothing about the poll being a sham or a liberal conspiracy to deflate conservative enthusiasm?

farleftprogressive on August 20, 2014 at 5:20 PM

The devils went down to Georgia, and not even a Nunn could save them.

Steve Z on August 20, 2014 at 5:23 PM

In Alaska too

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2014 at 4:06 PM

Has there been any polling in Alaska after Dan Sullivan won the primary?

Steve Z on August 20, 2014 at 5:27 PM

I don’t know why but I was never worried about Georgia.

Cindy Munford on August 20, 2014 at 4:20 PM

You were correct not to be for the time being, considering this is an off-year election cycle. Georgia is turning purple, but the reality is, the big wave of new residents has slowed some. People are still moving here, but not as much as they were after the ’96 Olympics into early naughts. Back in 2008, the Democrat nominee for the Senate (Jim Martin) came within three percentage points of winning on election day with President Obama at the top of the ticket, but Martin lost badly (15-point margin) in the runoff against Saxby Chambliss. Be very worried for 2016 and 2020, as Georgia will elect a senator both times.

The Bringer on August 20, 2014 at 5:27 PM

“We don’t hold much with Raaawl-T, ’round these parts.”

A typical, and no doubt appropriate, Georgia voter opinion

orangemtl on August 20, 2014 at 5:33 PM

Meanwhile in NC, Hagen leads Tillis 45-43 according to new USA Today/Suffolk poll out today. If the GOP can’t won in NC, they aren’t winning the Senate.

mypalfish on August 20, 2014 at 5:59 PM

Amazing what unending disaster will do for the chances of one’s opponent.

formwiz on August 20, 2014 at 6:27 PM

The Bringer on August 20, 2014 at 5:27 PM

Yep, Florida also.

Cindy Munford on August 20, 2014 at 6:31 PM

The establishment was really hoping that either Perdue or Kingston got to the runoff because they knew that either candidate would beat one of the TP candidates, Handel, Broun, or Gingrey. The establishment got its dream that not one, but BOTH of their candidates advanced to the runoff. With Perdue or Kingston, they knew they didn’t have to worry about GA much. With the others, the state would be put in play. GA is safely Republican at this point. KY will soon follow. That means the Republicans will have no other seats they’ll have to work hard to defend, as AL, ID, KS, ME, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, and WY are all safe Republican seats, and it’s all on the Democrats to defend theirs. This election cycle is working out just about as well as anyone on the Republican side could have hoped for.

GOPRanknFile on August 20, 2014 at 6:32 PM

Georgia was never going blue. It’s absorbed all that Atlanta has to offer. North Carolina, however, must defeat Kay Hagan. That worthless piece of doo-doo needs to go.

SouthernGent on August 20, 2014 at 6:49 PM

A viable GA dem party could have made a credible corruption issue against Deal. That’s how far they have fallen.

Tom McDonald on August 21, 2014 at 2:23 AM