Get ready for liberals to fall in love with the Fox News poll

posted at 12:41 pm on August 15, 2014 by Noah Rothman

Grassroots liberals often seem to confuse the Fox News poll, a survey conducted by two respected partisan pollsters, with Fox News Channel. For some, they discount the results of the Fox poll as though Bill O’Reilly was spending his evenings on the phone with respondents. The fact is that the Fox News survey is a solid poll with a reliable track record.

Which is why conservatives should be concerned with its latest results. As Ed Morrissey noted on Thursday, the latest Fox News survey could indicate that President Barack Obama is enjoying a bit of a comeback.

Actually, his job approval numbers did bounce back, at least a little. Obama gets a 42/49, still underwater, but his disapproval number is back below a majority for the first time since May, and only the second time in the past year. Two months ago, that number was 41/54, and in March it was 38/54.

If Obama’s approval rating is giving the left a thrill up their legs, the generic congressional ballot question in the latest Fox News poll is going to have them dancing in the streets. Voters told Fox’s pollsters that they prefer the Democrats control Congress over Republicans by 46 to 39 percent. That is a significant shift from mid-July when only 43 percent backed Democrats and 41 percent supported Republicans as the party they would prefer have majority control over Congress.

Be wary, however, of those who do not proceed to note the results of the generic congressional ballot question for those respondents who expressed enough interest in the coming midterm elections to be considered a likely voter. Among interested voters, Republicans enjoy a slight lead on the generic ballot question. 45 percent said they prefer the GOP to control both chambers of the federal legislature while 44 percent backed Democrats — a statistical tie.

This is a window into what the polls will probably look like after Labor Day when most public pollsters begin to apply a likely voter screen to their results. Only the most interested or reliable voters usually make it through most likely voter screens and, among the enthusiastic, the out party has benefited from a consistent edge with voters in midterm election cycles. 2014 is unlikely to be an exception to that rule.

That fact will probably take a backseat, however, to the glaring headline that will likely spread like wildfire across the liberal blogs: “FOX NEWS POLL: DEMS LEAD GOP BY SEVEN POINTS!!”

Those outlets that do not note that many of those pro-Democratic voters are unlikely to show up at the polls in November are worthy of suspicion.


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America gets what it wants.

albill on August 15, 2014 at 12:45 PM

Meh.

Aizen on August 15, 2014 at 12:45 PM

During Bill Clinton’s pResidency, the Faux News Polls routinely had his job approval slightly higher (usually 3-5 points) than CNN and others. But the Left ignored them then too.

Del Dolemonte on August 15, 2014 at 12:47 PM

The only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day.

Bitter Clinger on August 15, 2014 at 12:49 PM

liberals often seem confuse

Bloggers often seem confuse too.

faraway on August 15, 2014 at 12:50 PM

There is a 3-5 points in favor of Obama in the Fox poll to balance out the calls of “racism”.

portlandon on August 15, 2014 at 12:50 PM

This poll is Horsesh*t…..just using the President’s own
mindset…..

ToddPA on August 15, 2014 at 12:52 PM

FOX gets it wrong often as in Shep, Billo

rik on August 15, 2014 at 12:56 PM

When you get called/emailed/form to poll, do they now it’s for FNC?

Everytime I’ve been nationally polled, I was told who it was from/on behalf.

So if a Dem gets polled for FNC, what were the odds they hung up? 2:1?

Now that the consensus has formed, that FNC is the cable news outlet, what do you think the reaction will be?

You can see it across FNC. They’re drawing a bigger net of viewers because MSNBC is a disgrace and CNN can’t find a primetime anchor who can attract. The whole point of marginalizing Hannity for Kelly and Greta was to take the GOP edge off of primetime.

So, naturally, you’re going to get more Dem-Left reluctant acceptance. And that’s going to show in the polls as lefties will answer the questions, out of pure spite.

budfox on August 15, 2014 at 12:57 PM

Grassroots liberals often seem confuse the Fox News poll, a survey conducted by two respected partisan pollsters, with Fox News Channel.

For crying out loud, it’s the lead sentence of the post. In the part preceding the first comma, I think–but I’m not sure–that your verb tense is wrong and that you’re missing an infinitive marker (to) or a preposition (by). I really can’t figure out what you’re trying to say after that first comma.

This is pathetic.

BuckeyeSam on August 15, 2014 at 12:57 PM

I fear for our country if those who approve have any idea what Obama has done in the past five years. It’s scary enough if they approve and don’t know.

cajunpatriot on August 15, 2014 at 1:00 PM

The HotAir Editor in Chief is playing golf

faraway on August 15, 2014 at 1:00 PM

I really wonder why everyone is so fascinated by the approval rating for a guy who will never be up for another election again.

Looking at the RCP average, Obama’s approval rating bottomed out last december, right after the healthcare.gov bomd, at about -16%. By the end of the month it was back to around -11%. Since then it’s hovered in between -8% and -13%, and today it sits at -11.6%. All this rightwing narrative of “plummeting ratings” is BS, fed by a media who feeds you only the worst poll numbers, and calls them “new lows” even when they aren’t actually “new lows”.

But Obama isn’t up for election. These are congressional elections this year.

And congressional approval is at historic lows, hovering between -60 and -70% since the republicans took over. Today it sits at -63.8%.

And the democrats continue to hold the same slight congressional advantage on the generic vote as they always do. Today they sit at +1.2% on the generic vote.

the obsession with Obama’s approval rating is hilarious, considering he’s not running in any elections, and his approval rating has been the same for months now.

everdiso on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

When are people going to learn that polls don’t mean much of anything?

Unless, today is election day.

Moesart on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

So he’s mostly dead

Kraken on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Democrats will still control the Senate, thanks to the GOPe’s declared war on the base. Good luck getting those voters to show up, you GOPe assclowns.

pdigaudio on August 15, 2014 at 1:05 PM

the obsession with Obama’s approval rating is hilarious, considering he’s not running in any elections, and his approval rating has been the same for months now.

everdiso on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Everfoolish, just for you.

And, just for you too.

Schadenfreude on August 15, 2014 at 1:07 PM

the obsession with Obama’s approval rating is hilarious, considering he’s not running in any elections,
everdiso on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Did you REALLY write that? Really?

CW on August 15, 2014 at 1:09 PM

the obsession ..

everdiso on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Do you know what that even means?

CW on August 15, 2014 at 1:10 PM

Tap dance, everdiso. Ned’s taking a nap.

CurtZHP on August 15, 2014 at 1:11 PM

the obsession with Obama’s approval rating is hilarious, considering he’s not running in any elections
everdiso on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Correct, but those who have to make excuses for the Obama disaster are – within months.

whatcat on August 15, 2014 at 1:14 PM

When are people going to learn that polls don’t mean much of anything?

Unless, today is election day.

Moesart on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

“Nine out ten respondents said that if the election were held today they’d be really surprised.”

whatcat on August 15, 2014 at 1:16 PM

the obsession with Obama’s approval rating is hilarious, considering he’s not running in any elections, and his approval rating has been the same for months now.

Was itequally hilarious when you and your “progressive” pals were obsessing over Bush’s ?

F X Muldoon on August 15, 2014 at 1:22 PM

Hey Ned Pepper, zip up Obama and come look!

itsspideyman on August 15, 2014 at 1:23 PM

the obsession with Obama’s approval rating is hilarious, considering he’s not running in any elections, and his approval rating has been the same for months now.

everditso on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

Everfoolish, just for you.

And, just for you too.

Schadenfreude on August 15, 2014 at 1:07 PM

The old media pretty much ignored polls on President George W. Bush from the day after the 2004 election until he left office, right?

slickwillie2001 on August 15, 2014 at 1:24 PM

In other news, a large number of people who hit themselves hard in the head with a hammer daily vowed to continue hitting themselves hard in the head with a hammer daily, telling pollsters their chronic head pain was the fault of George Bush, the Tea Party and the hammer industry (Big Hammers.)

Marxism is for dummies on August 15, 2014 at 1:24 PM

It’s that bad for the leftist thugs.

Schadenfreude on August 15, 2014 at 1:26 PM

Hey Ned Pepper, zip up Obama and come look!

itsspideyman on August 15, 2014 at 1:23 PM

Actually Obama’s azz is a pretty safe place to be.

Ned Pepper on August 11, 2014 at 4:36 PM

Schadenfreude on August 15, 2014 at 1:27 PM

As Democrats avoid Obama, Romney is in demand on the midterm campaign trail

WAPO

But he isn’t running.
_everiso

/

THEN why avoid him? You’re such a lapdog.

CW on August 15, 2014 at 1:28 PM

Grassroots liberals often seem confuse the Fox News poll, a survey conducted by two respected partisan pollsters, with Fox News Channel.

Me seems confuse to. Why Noah copy day-old thread from Ed but with worser grammer?

sauldalinsky on August 15, 2014 at 1:30 PM

Run with that lede, it will just make the TEA Party base of the GOP, and Obama’s opposition, more determined than ever to show up and vote in November.

Another Drew on August 15, 2014 at 1:38 PM

In my entire life,and I am ancient, I have been polled just one time.
Of course, I answered all of the questions as if I had a man crush on 0, which of course is not true. So, I do this why, to skew the polls. The only poll as others have said, is the voting booth in November.
Besides who cares if 0 has come up by two or three points, what difference does it make. Does it make him feel adequate as he plays rounds of golf? Will his Martha’s Vineyard vacation play out better for him? Perhaps for him, but really, I’d prefer that he resign and stop embarrassing the Nation. Uncle Joe, would be good for a laugh or two before 2016. How much worse could it get? We’ll be sitting on $18 trillion in debt by the time 0 leaves.
The real pain is just around the corner.
Enjoy the rest of the summer.

woodhull on August 15, 2014 at 1:45 PM

Was itequally hilarious when you and your “progressive” pals were obsessing over Bush’s ?

F X Muldoon on August 15, 2014 at 1:22 PM

yup.

Bush’s approval ratings were irrelevant.

the numbers that mattered were the poll numbers for the people that were actually up for election.

everdiso on August 15, 2014 at 2:09 PM

I don’t give a crap any more and haven’t for quite some time. The republic our country once was is gone. What happens at the ballot box won’t make one iota of a difference.

bgibbs1000 on August 15, 2014 at 2:19 PM

It never fails: one good poll in a sea of bad polls for Obama and the dems and the right freaks out while the left fellates themselves. This poll is an outlier, a statistical anomaly.

For those of you who don’t know what a statistical outlier is, go to Wikipedia, it’ll make you feel better. Righties relax, and lefties, for God’s sake, put it back in your pants.

The Grinch on August 15, 2014 at 2:20 PM

I really wonder why everyone is so fascinated by the approval rating for a guy who will never be up for another election again.

lester, it’s time for your violin lesson! on August 15, 2014 at 1:02 PM

What fascinates us is that it took O’bama about the same amount of time it took his hated predecessor Bush to get to 42% job approval.

Why is that fascinating to everyone except mental midgets like yourself?

Because when Bush’s numbers fell to the low 40s, it was after 6 years of the Democrat Media beating up on him and lying about him nonstop.

In O’bama’s case, that very same Democrat Media created him, got him elected by ignoring his lack of qualifications, and they have been propping him up 24/7 for 6 years.

Thanks yet again for admitting that you’re not terribly bright.

F+

Del Dolemonte on August 15, 2014 at 2:29 PM

Democrats will still control the Senate, thanks to the GOPe’s declared war on the base. Good luck getting those voters to show up, you GOPe assclowns.

pdigaudio on August 15, 2014 at 1:05 PM

Smells like another Open Reg Teen Spirit Sleeper Cell activation. Welcome to Hot Gas.

Oh, and F-

Del Dolemonte on August 15, 2014 at 2:31 PM

I hope you don’t get paid much for this drivel.

Amjean on August 15, 2014 at 3:01 PM

One gets the impression the Fox poll is intended to make sure Demos will do the shows.

formwiz on August 15, 2014 at 4:02 PM

Americans don’t disapprove of the fact that Obama has checked out and is now disengaged. In fact, they’re happy that he’s not working hard to damage the country.

corkie on August 15, 2014 at 4:17 PM

I am really starting to like Noah Rothman’s presence here at Hot Air. I’ve been hoping someone would dig deeper into polling data like this and tell us what’s wrong with it.

Caiwyn on August 15, 2014 at 4:20 PM

Grassroots Liberal?
No such thing.

LoganSix on August 15, 2014 at 6:53 PM

The only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day.

Bitter Clinger on August 15, 2014 at 12:49 PM

The one where the liberals running the polls decide by how many votes their candidate shall win?

Tard on August 15, 2014 at 7:13 PM