Fox poll: Is Obama rebounding?

posted at 10:41 am on August 14, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Well, sort of. Barack Obama’s poll numbers have cratered of late, so any movement upward will look like a bounce — and as the Washington Post notes, there is a hook for that conclusion. According to the Fox poll, about two-thirds of Americans agree with Obama’s decision to order air strikes on ISIS to slow their roll toward the Kurdish autonomous zone:

The good news for President Obama: The American people are very much behind his decision to launch airstrikes against extremists in Iraq.

The bad news: They still think he’s really weak on foreign policy.

A new Fox News poll has a rare bit of praise for Obama’s conduct in world affairs, with Americans approving 65-23 of his decision to launch airstrikes in Iraq.

But the same poll shows that, when it comes to foreign policy in general and basically every major overseas conflict — including Iraq — Obama is still in pretty rough shape.

Actually, his job approval numbers did bounce back, at least a little. Obama gets a 42/49, still underwater, but his disapproval number is back below a majority for the first time since May, and only the second time in the past year. Two months ago, that number was 41/54, and in March it was 38/54.

However, on everything else Obama scores majority disapprovals, even while rebounding slightly in some categories. He gets a 43/51 on the economy, which is better than last month’s 40/57. On foreign policy, he scores an abysmal 35/53, but that beats 36/56 and 32/60 in Fox’s last two polls. Obama has edged up slightly on health care from 39/58 in early June to 42/53 today. Only on immigration and Israel does Obama remain mired at his nadir; he gets 33/57 on the former (from 34/58) and 30/54 on the latter (29/56 in June).

What to make of this small bounce? The airstrikes in Iraq show some spark of leadership from a President who mainly seems adrift and disengaged from events. That perception might be enough to have moved the needle and rebuilt a little confidence in Obama’s stewardship of the nation. However, this is the only poll thus far showing any kind of improvement, even as small as this is, and most of the changes are either within the margin of error or just outside of it.

Bottom line: Obama remains “in rough shape,” as the Post’s Aaron Blake concludes. He may, however, have established his floor of unpopularity, unless Obama boots another crisis.


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I’ll say he shows leadership when he carpet bombs the escape route off that mountain with so many B-52′s that it blocks out the sun.

Anything else is just really a token gesture.

Defenestratus on August 14, 2014 at 10:44 AM

I don’t know about rebounding, but he sure can’t shoot. We’ve seen the video of his bricks.

Bitter Clinger on August 14, 2014 at 10:44 AM

ISIS is, no doubt, extremely HAPPY with Obama’s performance.

The Christians being beheaded for being Christians were not available for comment.

Meople on August 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM

He and his administration is a massive clusterfark. Embrace the suck.

crosshugger on August 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM

Here come the Obamacare premium announcements and the illegal immigrants registering for school all while the Middle East is in flames.

BuckeyeSam on August 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM

Classic Obama will be an over-correct resulting in him losing more support from the left. This is what happens when you make each decision in a vacuum, independent of any overarching philosophical understanding.

Immolate on August 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM

Bottom line: Obama remains “in rough shape,” as the Post’s Aaron Blake concludes. He may, however, have established his floor of unpopularity, unless Obama boots another crisis.

That floor was established a long time ago. He cannot drop below 40% approval(aside from a single day here and there) thanks to a base that’ll never abandon him. And obviously there’s no scandal that’ll put dent in that 40% support.

As for the slight bump resulting from airstrikes, something tells me Obama is not quite prepared to become a foreign policy hawk in order to boost his numbers.

Doughboy on August 14, 2014 at 10:46 AM

He was pushed into making the right decisions by public opinion. Polls reflect he listened. Better a few Yazidis and Christians lives in Iraq be saved than some short term benefit to Obama who helped cause this disaster.

This is an easy decision.

Obama is still a disaster.

Evi L. Bloggerlady on August 14, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Obama gets a bounce?

So does a brick when it falls 50 floors.

Doesn’t mean it’s bouncing back to the 50th floor.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 10:47 AM

I guess they aren’t polling those 3,000 Yazidis that are about to be beheaded or raped.

faraway on August 14, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Two things:

There is statistically insignificant change… It is totally meaningless to debate if Obama polling is getting better because it is not…

The picture of the dead cat to imply dead cat bounce is ridiculous and for a cat lover like myself it is disgusting…

mnjg on August 14, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Obama’s floor is about 40. The race obsessive Dems will never bail on the first black POTUS (like conservatives did to Bush). And blacks will always skew his numbers up by 3-4 points overall, with 90+% support. If Obama were a white Democrat, his numbers would be in the mid 30s.

kevinkristy on August 14, 2014 at 10:49 AM

ISIS is, no doubt, extremely HAPPY with Obama’s performance.

The Christians being beheaded for being Christians were not available for comment.

Meople on August 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM

Of those not being beheaded, but being raped (women, children) and sold into slavery, they unfortunately have no voice to speak for them.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 10:49 AM

How can pundits not see the trend?

When the polls are about Barry, he craters.

When the news becomes about how bad Barry is doing in the polls, his next set ticks up because of black solidarity, Dem zombies and Prog indignation.

Every time. Six years and counting.

budfox on August 14, 2014 at 10:50 AM

faraway on August 14, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Missed your post, but we’re on the same wavelength.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 10:50 AM

0

Bmore on August 14, 2014 at 10:51 AM

I’ll say he shows leadership when he carpet bombs the escape route off that mountain with so many B-52′s that it blocks out the sun.

Anything else is just really a token gesture.

Defenestratus on August 14, 2014 at 10:44 AM

Agreed.

If he really wants to send a message, tell his generals to let slip the dogs of war and pound them into the sand.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 10:52 AM

Of those not being beheaded, but being raped (women, children) and sold into slavery, they unfortunately have no voice to speak for them.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 10:49 AM

They sure don’t. Maybe Moochelle will do another hashtag selfie to help them out. That will make it ALLLL better I’m sure.

Meople on August 14, 2014 at 10:52 AM

King Barack’s “floor” is around 33%. Those are the hard-core O-bots. He could declare Himself “President-for-Life” and those idiots would applaud.

GarandFan on August 14, 2014 at 10:53 AM

Meh. I think the FOX polls bend over backwards to make their findings “fair” to the dog eater. Nobody wants to be accused of being racist.

BettyRuth on August 14, 2014 at 10:53 AM

faraway on August 14, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Nailed it.

And, what is the poll sample? Still D+12? Imperious reader’s job approval is really in the 20′s, not that he cares.

Fore!

dogsoldier on August 14, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Obama’s absolute bottom floor is 39%. That’s about the percent of the country that make up his cronies: unions, academia, the welfare leeches, and of course the bleeding hearts.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 14, 2014 at 10:57 AM

Before dancing any jigs, I’d remember the Fox poll is often the result of wishful thinking.

That floor was established a long time ago. He cannot drop below 40% approval(aside from a single day here and there) thanks to a base that’ll never abandon him. And obviously there’s no scandal that’ll put dent in that 40% support.

Doughboy on August 14, 2014 at 10:46 AM

Wanna bet?

formwiz on August 14, 2014 at 11:00 AM

So in other words, Obama’s approval rating would have to improve just to “suck”.

partsnlabor on August 14, 2014 at 11:00 AM

I think even if Obama declares the 22nd amendment unconstitutional, and got his Department of Injustice to craft a memo that elections are also unconstitutional, would the spineless GOP impeach him?

Answer: Doubt it.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 14, 2014 at 11:01 AM

Wanna bet?

formwiz on August 14, 2014 at 11:00 AM

So what you think the rioters are going to be voting Republican now?

Come on!

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 14, 2014 at 11:03 AM

Note that Obama’s black base has been disgustedly vocal on social media about him seemingly being more preoccupied with the Robin Williams situation than the Ferguson situation.

I wonder what their response will be when Obama announces 5 million amnesty work permits for illegals that are mostly in the same job market as 3-4 million African-Americans.

kd6rxl on August 14, 2014 at 11:03 AM

King Barack’s “floor” is around 33%. Those are the hard-core O-bots. He could declare Himself “President-for-Life” and those idiots would applaud.

GarandFan on August 14, 2014 at 10:53 AM

Exhibit A: Ned Pepper.

Bitter Clinger on August 14, 2014 at 11:03 AM

This Poll is horsesh*t.

ToddPA on August 14, 2014 at 11:04 AM

This Poll is horsesh*t.

ToddPA on August 14, 2014 at 11:04 AM

There’s a lot of that going around these days.

Bitter Clinger on August 14, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Good news!! Feds taking over…

Derek Wallbank @dwallbank · 34m
Clay: “The gov. just called me and he’s on his way to St. Louis now to announce he’s taking St. Louis County police out of the situation”

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Ned’s sugar daddy makes him happy.

CurtZHP on August 14, 2014 at 11:10 AM

Rebounding right into a ditch, me thinks!!

canopfor on August 14, 2014 at 11:12 AM

Good news!! Feds taking over…

Derek Wallbank @dwallbank · 34m
Clay: “The gov. just called me and he’s on his way to St. Louis now to announce he’s taking St. Louis County police out of the situation”

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Since when does a governor control a federal agency?

You just ain’t the sharpest knife in the drawer.

Bitter Clinger on August 14, 2014 at 11:12 AM

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 14, 2014 at 11:01 AM

++

wifarmboy on August 14, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Yeah, that’ll help. Holder’s Department of Social Justice rides in to further race bait and foment even more hate toward anyone that happens to be white.

Meople on August 14, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Poor little Pecker, he thinks the governor works for the Feds.

faraway on August 14, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Yeah, that’ll help. Holder’s Department of Social Justice rides in to further race bait and foment even more hate toward anyone that happens to be white.

Meople on August 14, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Mo Brooks is your boy!

MO BROOKS – 2016 The only Great White Hope who will stop White Opression in America

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Good grief.
I’m going to start carrying in my own home. The world is in flames from lawlessness, stupidity, and evil.

I have not a “smidgeon” of effect on the world. However, I will protect myself and my family.

freedomfirst on August 14, 2014 at 11:16 AM

There is statistically insignificant change…

mnjg on August 14, 2014 at 10:48 AM

… and speaking of stratistics, don’t forget about regression toward the mean. We expect a lot of variance because there is a lot of sampling error in these polls (in addition to any bias).

topdog on August 14, 2014 at 11:16 AM

I see you have dug up a picture of my previous life as a cat.

tkc882 on August 14, 2014 at 11:19 AM

@GovJayNixon just confirmed that the State Police & Federal Authorities are going to relieve St. Louis County PD of their duties here.
— @ShaunKing

Let’s go, Feds..

Thank you Eric Holder and President Obama.

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:15 AM

No idea who that is.

Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Eric Holder and Obama are your BOYS!!!

Department of Jackbooted Social Justice for the WIN!!!

Meople on August 14, 2014 at 11:23 AM

“The good news for President Obama: The American people are very much behind his decision to launch airstrikes against extremists in Iraq.

The bad news: They still think he’s really weak on foreign policy.”

It seems like the respondents of the poll know Obama doesn’t have a foreign policy doctrine and constantly dithers on decision-making up until the point where he’s practically forced into responding. It’s absolutely pathetic. At least Bush — love him or hate him — could make a choice at the end of the day, regardless of whether or not people agreed with him.

Aizen on August 14, 2014 at 11:24 AM

@GovJayNixon just confirmed that the State Police & Federal Authorities are going to relieve St. Louis County PD of their duties here.
— @ShaunKing

Let’s go, Feds..

Thank you Eric Holder and President Obama.

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Wow, I didn’t know Eric Holder had finished his investigation into parade outhouses yet. Outstanding!

He’ll get to the bottom of who started this arson, riots and looting; prolly Ted Cruz.

Dolce Far Niente on August 14, 2014 at 11:26 AM

Frankly, I don’t give a shit about his “polls” any more. I waiting for the voting polls in the next national election and the day he leaves Washington.

-west

mr_west on August 14, 2014 at 11:29 AM

Good news!! Feds taking over…

Derek Wallbank @dwallbank · 34m
Clay: “The gov. just called me and he’s on his way to St. Louis now to announce he’s taking St. Louis County police out of the situation”

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Yeah, because when the Feds come in, everything quiets down.

- The Iraq Government.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 11:30 AM

Was this poll taken before or after Obama’s “It wasn’t my idea to leave Iraq” statement?

AtTheRubicon on August 14, 2014 at 11:31 AM

I think you have got it all wrong. The reason obama has risen in the polls is because he is on vacation and that means that he can do no harm.

inspectorudy on August 14, 2014 at 11:37 AM

There is statistically insignificant change…

mnjg on August 14, 2014 at 10:48 AM

… and speaking of stratistics, don’t forget about regression toward the mean. We expect a lot of variance because there is a lot of sampling error in these polls (in addition to any bias).

topdog on August 14, 2014 at 11:16 AM

As someone who does marketing survey research working with human samples ain’t like chemical reactions. People do and say stupid and illogical things. I definitely agree that there’s a 40% floor for support for Obama, who will not move from their positions regardless. This floor will drop by 2015 when the election cycle starts.

That being said, there are positions about certain concepts that are irrespective of the president. I think in this situation with the horror stories coming out of Iraq, any movement by Obama would thought of as positive.

This does not mean the general impression towards Obama will change. Not as long as he keeps doing stupid sh!t.

itsspideyman on August 14, 2014 at 11:37 AM

It seems like the respondents of the poll know Obama doesn’t have a foreign policy doctrine and constantly dithers on decision-making up until the point where he’s practically forced into responding. It’s absolutely pathetic. At least Bush — love him or hate him — could make a choice at the end of the day, regardless of whether or not people agreed with him.

Aizen on August 14, 2014 at 11:24 AM

Yes, that is the difference between a Leader (Bush) and a welfare queens agitator (Obama)…

mnjg on August 14, 2014 at 11:40 AM

He won twice. America deserves his narcissistic failures.

Valiant on August 14, 2014 at 11:49 AM

@GovJayNixon just confirmed that the State Police & Federal Authorities are going to relieve St. Louis County PD of their duties here.
— @ShaunKing

Let’s go, Feds..

Thank you Eric Holder and President Obama.

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:22 AM

So you don’t mind having the National Guard patrolling the streets of your city?

When they start cracking skulls, I hope your first in line.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 14, 2014 at 11:49 AM

you’re not your.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 14, 2014 at 11:50 AM

Good news!! Feds taking over…

Ned Pepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Duh, we always knew you were a nazi.

Schadenfreude on August 14, 2014 at 11:55 AM

RCP says otherwise

Chuck Schick on August 14, 2014 at 12:02 PM

Just a brief rally around the flag effect. The president’s approval rating nearly always gets a bump when the US undertakes a major military operation. That’ll wear off in a month or two.

LukeinNE on August 14, 2014 at 12:24 PM

Obama’s 40 is any other President’s 23.

albill on August 14, 2014 at 12:39 PM

They support attacking ISIS, great, but what happens when he fails to contain them?

astonerii on August 14, 2014 at 12:42 PM

16% say that Putin respects obama.

Schadenfreude on August 14, 2014 at 1:26 PM

Barky is shooting hoops in the Vineyard, too ?

viking01 on August 14, 2014 at 1:41 PM

He could declare Himself “President-for-Life” and those idiots would applaud.

GarandFan on August 14, 2014 at 10:53 AM

He will, and they will.

NOMOBO on August 14, 2014 at 1:55 PM

This was a Dumb assed poll!

MCGIRV on August 14, 2014 at 2:18 PM

Thank you Eric Holder and President Obama.

Led Zepper on August 14, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Wipe your chin off, Kid.

Del Dolemonte on August 14, 2014 at 3:16 PM

Good job

Schadenfreude on August 14, 2014 at 3:38 PM

You too, Hillary

Schadenfreude on August 14, 2014 at 3:38 PM

Schadenfreude on August 14, 2014 at 3:38 PM

..interesting! A tidbit from your link to the underlying article:

Clinton has been running for president for almost a decade. What is striking today is how little she appears to have thought through WHY she would run and HOW she would campaign. Throughout 2014 she has been dogged by self-created controversies about her paid speeches to banks and universities, whether she needed the money because she was “dirt poor,” whether she is out of touch with working people, and now her ill-timed and disastrously executed criticisms of Obama in her Atlantic interview.

..and to borrow your sobriquet to describe this: pure schadenfreude!

The War Planner on August 14, 2014 at 3:53 PM

What to make of this small bounce?

Nothing. None of the changes are statistically significant.

jim56 on August 14, 2014 at 4:20 PM

Dang. You can’t swing a dead cat without hittin’ someone making a dead cat reference. And that’s offensive.

corncat on August 14, 2014 at 4:55 PM

Greatest POTUS ever. I heard it on NPR, read it in the NYT, watched it on MSNBC and was told directly to me by the preacher from the local Southern Baptist church. How much more proof do you need besides all these reputable sources?

His numbers are low because racism still exists in America. I heard it on Progressive Talk Radio, read it in the WP, watched it on CNN and was told directly to me by the same preacher from the local Southern Baptist church. Again, how much more proof do you need besides all these reputable sources?

These reputable polling sources are no different. Happy days are here again….

Sí, se puede! Sí, se puede! Sí, se puede!

CommieJuice on August 14, 2014 at 5:16 PM

If you are going to take over for Allah in making a post of every poll in the free world, learn something about polling.

Not that the “journalists” who report them, including at Fox, know anything, either, of course.

Minor fluctuations in a single poll are far more likely to be mere statistical “noise” within standard deviations than to be signals of changing public moods.

And as always, the precise wording can change the results by several points with ease. Which is why “opinion” polls are less reliable than those with specific standard objective questions like “Who do you plan to vote for on Tuesday?” or “Do you own a home?”

Adjoran on August 14, 2014 at 5:22 PM