Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year

posted at 1:21 pm on August 4, 2014 by Noah Rothman

Public opinion polls, as they say, are a snapshot in time. And a glance at the polls today suggests that the 2014 midterm elections are shaping up to be good for Republicans, but a landslide does not appear to be in the offing.

As of this writing, Real Clear Politics puts nine of this year’s 19 even competitive Senate races in the tossup column. Many of those races poll so tightly that it is impossible to make an accurate prediction about how they will shape up but, as RCP notes, the GOP is set today to pick up six net seats for a slim 51-49 majority in the 114th Congress.

The New York Times election modeling feature The Upshot comes to a similar conclusion. As of today, the Republican Party has a 53 percent chance of taking control of the upper chamber of Congress. “[T]hat doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Republicans to win the Senate,” The Upshot clarified, “the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.”

Of those same nine tossup races, The Times only gives Republican candidates better than even odds of winning four of them. With two of those races, Kentucky and Georgia, representing holds for the Senate’s minority party, and with three pickup opportunities for the GOP in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota now appearing to be Republican locks, this would also leave the GOP with a one-seat majority.

The consensus opinion is clear: A good Republican year, but no tsunami.

But FiveThirtyEight statistics analyst Nate Silver has some advice for elections analysts that cuts against the grain. He noted on Monday that the polls do not show a Republican “wave” is forming, and it is clear that the GOP can still retake the Senate even in a “wave’s” absence. It would, however, be folly to make any firm predictions about the political landscape even with less than 100 days remaining before voters head to the polls.

“It’s still early,” Silver wrote, “and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races.”

It can be tempting, if you cover politics for a living, to check your calendar, see that it’s already August, and conclude that if there were a wave election coming we would have seen more signs of it by now. But political time is nonlinear and a lot of waves are late-breaking, especially in midterm years. Most forecasts issued at this point in the cycle would have considerably underestimated Republican gains in the House in 1994 or 2010, for instance, or Democratic gains in the Senate in 2006. (These late shifts don’t always work to the benefit of the minority party; in 2012, the Democrats’ standing in Senate races improved considerably after Labor Day.) A late swing toward Republicans this year could result in their winning as many as 10 or 11 Senate seats. Democrats, alternatively, could limit the damage to as few as one or two races. These remain plausible scenarios — not “Black Swan” cases.

Based, however, on the data available today, Silver sided with the majority of polling analysts who note that Republicans are favored to pick up the bare minimum of seats they need to retake the Senate.

“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats3 for Republicans,” he observed. “That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error.”

If Republicans manage to retake the Senate without a significant cushion, the party will likely only be renting the majority leader’s seat. While a Republican Party in control of both chambers of Congress would certainly blunt President Barack Obama’s agenda for the remainder of his presidency, Democrats would remain the favorites to retake that chamber in 2016 when those GOP senators elected in 2010 face their state’s voters in a presidential year.


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Now image the numbers if their was real leadership in the GOP.

Oil Can on August 4, 2014 at 1:24 PM

I’m sure Sleazy Eric “The Hustler” Holder is working overtime on his vote fraud and intimidation schemes.

viking01 on August 4, 2014 at 1:24 PM

2010 will look tiny.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:27 PM

The left hatin’ on Ned…3, 2, 1.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:29 PM

Economy, own pockets…even the apolitical are never fooled

Security – obama owns ISIS, via the open borders

These two – all else is related to these two.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:30 PM

Meanwhile, fluke you all, you amnesty shills. May Ebola get a hold of you, or lice, in the least, until you all scream from pain.

We’ll pour lime juice on you then.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:31 PM

the GOP is set today to pick up six net seats for a slim 51-49 majority in the 114th Congress.

So, which one gets paid to switch sides again?

faraway on August 4, 2014 at 1:36 PM

The left hatin’ on Ned Nate…3, 2, 1.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:36 PM

The media have not gotten very involved yet.

They still have to pick out some socons to destroy.

Moesart on August 4, 2014 at 1:41 PM

Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year

They are both controlled by Progressives. What difference would it make if the gop controlled the Senate as well?

PappyD61 on August 4, 2014 at 1:42 PM

The next perfect storm (if human waste is a secretion):


http://dailycaller.com/2014/07/31/dhs-report-tuberculosis-and-scabies-spreading-in-migrant-holding-facilities/

The report also includes notes that these facilities are now in unsanitary condition due to “UAC and family unit illnesses and unfamiliarity with bathroom facilities” and these conditions have resulted in staff members and migrants being exposed to human waste.


http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/08/03/Leaked-CBP-Report-Shows-Entire-World-Exploiting-Open-US-Border

Among the significant revelations are that individuals from nations currently suffering from the world’s largest Ebola outbreak have been caught attempting to sneak across the porous U.S. border into the interior of the United States. At least 71 individuals from the three nations affected by the current Ebola outbreak have either turned themselves in or been caught attempting to illegally enter the U.S. by U.S. authorities between January 2014 and July 2014.

Wiki:

The potential for widespread EVD infections is considered low as the disease is only spread by direct contact with the secretions from someone who is showing signs of infection…

Next White House fatwa on PPACA rules:

President Obama has directed the Secretary of DHHS to triple the insurance rates and double the deductions for Border Patrol agents working in detention facilities.

fred5678 on August 4, 2014 at 1:44 PM

With the GOP embracing amnesty all bets are off.Pissed off pro-American middle class voters have had enough of the GOP.We are staying home.

redware on August 4, 2014 at 1:46 PM

I’m not too worried about 2014, but, 2016 is pretty crucial. We may never rid ourselves of Obamacare if Senate and WH don’t go well for us in 2016.

butch on August 4, 2014 at 1:47 PM

If Cochran is the candidate, I hope Mississippi goes Democrat.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 1:48 PM

If Cochran is the candidate, I hope Mississippi goes Democrat.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 1:48 PM

Hey Cindy, what did the rest of us do to deserve another Democrat Senate?

rhombus on August 4, 2014 at 1:52 PM

In a sane USA the senate would go veto-proof.

It w/b the ultimate justice to see the dicktator squirm, several times a day.

He is clinically ill anyway. That would turn him in.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:52 PM

You’re telling me Obama and those mean Liberal/RINOS still have a chance after encouraging those Illegal Aliens to cross that 1500 mile desert and dying?

Realdemocrat1 on August 4, 2014 at 1:52 PM

The IRS has not changed what they are doing so it could still look bad for the GOP, especially with the GOP’s penchant for snagging defeat out of the jaws of victory.

TerryW on August 4, 2014 at 1:54 PM

The media have not gotten very involved yet.

They still have to pick out some socons to destroy.

Moesart on August 4, 2014 at 1:41 PM

It’ll be around mid-October or so, they’ll pull out the Akin-bait. Someone’s got to bite. They only need one.

Red Creek on August 4, 2014 at 1:55 PM

Regurgitate this

h/t RWM

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:56 PM

OT – the muzzie knows too much and is oaf’s bro.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:58 PM

2016?

If you’re a registered republican you just have to ask which Progressive Big gov loving Open Borders politician you want?

Mitt Romney redux (even though he through the election in the 2nd debate while he had a 6 point lead nationally after the first debate)?

Paul Ryan?
Christ Christie?
Marco Rubio?
Rand Paul?

Or…..maybe, maybe someone that actually wants to LIMIT the scope and size of the Beltway Behomoth?

PappyD61 on August 4, 2014 at 1:59 PM

name dropping + extensive quotations + talking points = any post noah rothman

ThisIsYourBrainOnKoch on August 4, 2014 at 2:01 PM

rhombus on August 4, 2014 at 1:52 PM

Just that one state. I’m all for a Republican Senate.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:02 PM

Moesart on August 4, 2014 at 1:41 PM

You and your “SoCons”, you are ridiculous.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:03 PM

Did y’all see that James Brady has passed away?

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:05 PM

Hey Cindy, what did the rest of us do to deserve another Democrat Senate?

rhombus on August 4, 2014 at 1:52 PM

You shouldn’t be blaming Cindy, your anger should be directed at the GOPe and the NRSC. They are only reaping what they sow.

I would urge all Mississippians to not vote for Cochran. Cochran called his own base racists and Klansmen. They made their bed, now they can lay in it.

Meat Fighter on August 4, 2014 at 2:05 PM

IRS and other administration lackeys are warming up their voter intimidation mechanisms as we speak, undoubtedly.

Midas on August 4, 2014 at 2:08 PM

Give the establishment a little more time, they’ll blow it.

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:09 PM

if there were a wave election coming we would have seen more signs of it by now

I see a wave already on our southern border, and if this armed (50 cal. shots across the Rio Grand making BP agents duck), disease-ridden (scabies, MDR TB, measles, and now maybe Ebola) massive invasion — ORCHESTRATED BY OBAMA — doesn’t cause an election wave, nothing will.


http://mexico.usembassy.gov/press-releases/embassy-statement5/embassy-statement.html

Embassy Statement

Mexico City, July 08, 2014 – We applaud yesterday’s announcement by Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto regarding Mexico’s strategy for its southern border. The Mexican government has been working on this strategy for more than a year, and has routinely briefed the U.S. government on Mexico’s objectives

fred5678 on August 4, 2014 at 2:10 PM

The left hatin’ on Ned Nate…3, 2, 1.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 1:36 PM

Despite the headline here all he really said was that it was still possible for a wave to develop in either direction.

Tlaloc on August 4, 2014 at 2:11 PM

Just that one state. I’m all for a Republican Senate.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:02 PM

Republicans are unlikely to be able to write off even one set and still take the senate.

Tlaloc on August 4, 2014 at 2:12 PM

Did y’all see that James Brady has passed away?

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:05 PM

I’m sure the Anti-Constitution left will use that as a rallying call to try to get more limits on law abiding gun owners.

They did the same thing when Teddy “chapaquiddic” Kennedy died. Never let a good Dim dying, go to waste.

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:12 PM

Republicans and “not much room for error” are poor mates. Just watch the Senate Republican leaders; there are no people anywhere more likely to screw up important things, like an election.

MTF on August 4, 2014 at 2:14 PM

Did y’all see that James Brady has passed away?

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:05 PM

Just saw.

An excellent book on that awful day.

verbaluce on August 4, 2014 at 2:15 PM

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:12 PM

I’m sure it will be Mrs. Brady’s life’s work.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:16 PM

If Cochran is the candidate, I hope Mississippi goes Democrat.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 1:48 PM

Agreed. Cochran winning and reinforcing for the GOP that their behavior in his primary is acceptable and actually a viable way to win would be far worse.

Midas on August 4, 2014 at 2:16 PM

Tlaloc on August 4, 2014 at 2:12 PM

They should have thought of that before they pulled those stunts.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:17 PM

Did y’all see that James Brady has passed away?

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 2:05 PM

I’m sure the Anti-Constitution left will use that as a rallying call to try to get more limits on law abiding gun owners.

They did the same thing when Teddy “chapaquiddic” Kennedy died. Never let a good Dim dying, go to waste.

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:12 PM

I can hear them screaming “DO IT FOR JIM!” now.

Midas on August 4, 2014 at 2:19 PM

51 is the high water mark. There are 9 possible D to R switches. 6 switches seems high. I’ll go with 4 or 5

but given that the RINO party is so bad at retail politics that they attack their natural base…I’m sticking with 4. I.e. 49. Marshall Reid has nothing to worry about

the Left pretty much has the Rinos backed into a corner, which is why Reid blew away the filibusterer. The left is thinking all the time about how to get to the point that they are the only party…just like during FDR

r keller on August 4, 2014 at 2:19 PM

If the GOP wasn’t so feckless, they’d be running away with the November elections.

It is still amazing to me that in most polls, people hate Republicans as much as Democrats. My guess is that’s mostly because they’ve sat and watched us get hammered by Democrats and pursue what amounts to a Democrat-Lite agenda.

You would think by now the GOP could have figured this out.

Perhaps if they actually fired the incompetent people who lost the presidential election, things would be different? Nah, why would they do that? It’s not as though the president was unpopular and loathed or something. Or they predicted a bunch of zombie votes that never showed up. Or lied about how good their ground organization was at GOTV.

The only issue that may change things favorably for the GOP is immigration. Around November the impact on every community where Democrats have stashed illegal immigrants should be in full swing (although they’ve skillfully tried to avoid states where Democrat Senate seats are up for grabs…gee why is that?). My guess is some schools will be overwhelmed and some of the criminal element will produce some (more) high-profile, ignominious cases.

But they will screw that up and ignore their voters. For the children.

Marcus Traianus on August 4, 2014 at 2:20 PM

Marcus Traianus on August 4, 2014 at 2:20 PM

Yes, with Obamacare notices and impacts due to the employer mandate hitting pre-election, and the immigration wave, well – the GOP should be winning *every* Senate seat that’s up for grabs.

But that would require a party that didn’t have it’s head firmly up it’s backside, so…

Midas on August 4, 2014 at 2:22 PM

I can hear them screaming “DO IT FOR JIM!” now.

Midas on August 4, 2014 at 2:19 PM

You couldn’t wait just a tad before making the man’s death into a tired and lame political rant:?

verbaluce on August 4, 2014 at 2:23 PM

RCP continues to list KY and GA as tossups, though the Republicans have respectable leads in both races. Expect the GOP to pick up the three givens of WV, SD, MT plus AR, LA and AK and don’t be surprised to see IA, CO and NC flip, too. How about 9 seats? It’s a distinct likelihood.

ezspirit on August 4, 2014 at 2:26 PM

If Barry ends up giving amnesty to millions of illegals, dims will be in big trouble.

The problem is many Rs don’t offer much of an alternative. They should be able to win a landslide in November, but I’m not counting on it.

They don’t call it the Stupid Party for nothing.

cat_owner on August 4, 2014 at 2:27 PM

ezspirit on August 4, 2014 at 2:26 PM

Yes, they SHOULD be able to win those nine seats. There are some good candidates in some of them too, like Tom Cotton and Joni Ernst.

But will they?

cat_owner on August 4, 2014 at 2:29 PM

Agreed. Cochran winning and reinforcing for the GOP that their behavior in his primary is acceptable and actually a viable way to win would be far worse.

Midas on August 4, 2014 at 2:16 PM

Shockingly, Midas found another way to justify losing an election to the democrats and keeping Harry Reid in power to block all legislation.

V7_Sport on August 4, 2014 at 2:30 PM

I thought Nate Silver was on the outs? Is he back? What do the polls say about whether we should listen to him?

GWB on August 4, 2014 at 2:32 PM

You couldn’t wait just a tad before making the man’s death into a tired and lame political rant:?

verbaluce on August 4, 2014 at 2:23 PM

Actually, I’m quite sure ‘ol Jim wasn’t even cold yet before some (D) made a speech in Congress calling for more anti-gun laws to be passed. That’s how they roll.

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:32 PM

Hilarious

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 2:34 PM

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 2:34 PM

I especially like how she called all of Rep. Marino’s constituents “insignificant” and “unimportant”.

Pelosi is a LOON, and is the poster-child for Congressional term limits.

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:39 PM

I don’t think that I can be convinced that a Republican Senate will do anything substantive for a conservative agenda, or will block a progressive one.

In spite of what the rank and filers here tell us about a ‘Pub Senate blocking bad judicial appointments, as to the SCOTUS, I think our GOP senators outed themselves by supinely passing on the progressive turds Obama attempted to illegally appoint to the NLRB. I don’t think its likely that the GOP will suddenly find their manhood when it comes to the Supremes either.

Here’s a pro-tip, Senators; want to make a point about the Executive usurping Senatorial powers? Don’t whine about it and then do exactly what the President wanted in the first place.

Dolce Far Niente on August 4, 2014 at 2:40 PM

You couldn’t wait just a tad before making the man’s death into a tired and lame political rant:?

verbaluce on August 4, 2014 at 2:23 PM

You and your party always, always, always feed on carrion.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2014 at 2:40 PM

If Cochran is the candidate, I hope Mississippi goes Democrat.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 1:48 PM

If the senate goes 51/49 republican and Cochran wins he will turn democrat. Mark my words.

jukin3 on August 4, 2014 at 2:43 PM

so if the gop takes the senate, establishment republicans will deliver on their promises, right???

we’ve been told over and over that we had to wait till we won back the senate, when that days comes, what happens next??

jetch on August 4, 2014 at 2:44 PM

the Chanber is backing the Landrieu in LA. AK looks like it is safely in the D camp if you look and the sub-polls.

AR will flip I think. Other switches? NC, Kagan is ahead so far. I have no confidence at all in CO or IA…maybe IA. 4 or maybe 5. 6 is a stretch

but, yeah…if the Party of Stupid had good brand, had a set of principles that were good for the county, and if they had articulated them at every occasion, and if they called out the leftist press, if they got in their faces…well, yeah. Woulda Coulda Shoulda

r keller on August 4, 2014 at 2:47 PM

Give the MSM credit, they masterfully manipulate the lo-fo ‘voters’.
Like before the 2010 midterm massacre, it’s impossible to find a single article in the media that ALL lo-fo’s absorb that shows anything resembling reality.

Goebbels would be proud.

Tard on August 4, 2014 at 2:49 PM

While a Republican Party in control of both chambers of Congress would certainly blunt President Barack Obama’s agenda for the remainder of his presidency…

How so? President Obama has been pursuing his agenda independent of Congress since Republicans took control of the House in 2010. Nothing of real significance that he has wanted to advance, legislatively, has happened since that time. Instead, everything he has done has been through unilateral executive action, which no one is willing to rein him in on.

If Republicans take the Senate, I fail to see how that changes anything. Okay, budgets are not subject to the filibuster, so Republicans could successfully pass the budget they want. Which Obama will then promptly veto. And then we’re back to “do we shut down the government?” And we know that the GOP is so scared of their own shadow on that issue that they will cave to the Democrats as they always do.

On everything else, Obama will continue his own priorities through executive action and dare the Congress to do anything about it. Republicans won’t even broach the subject of impeachment, and even if they did, you wouldn’t be able to actually remove him from office without a supermajority in the Senate, which the GOP won’t have.

Even the ever-popular “at least we can block radical Supreme Court appointments” argument falls flat with me. First, Republicans don’t have the best track record of deciding who will make a good Supreme Court justice anyway. But, second, Obama is going to appoint who he wants to appoint. What are Republicans going to do? Leave the seat vacant and vote down nominee after nominee after nominee? Fat chance. Again, they are scared to death of being labeled as the “party of no,” and will eventually capitulate. And, if not, Obama will just declare them in recess and appoint someone. What are they going to do? Sue him again?

So tell me again… how does whether or not the Republicans take the Senate make a difference?

Shump on August 4, 2014 at 2:50 PM

the Chanber is backing the Landrieu in LA. AK looks like it is safely in the D camp if you look and the sub-polls.

AR will flip I think. Other switches? NC, Kagan is ahead so far. I have no confidence at all in CO or IA…maybe IA. 4 or maybe 5. 6 is a stretch

but, yeah…if the Party of Stupid had good brand, had a set of principles that were good for the county, and if they had articulated them at every occasion, and if they called out the leftist press, if they got in their faces…well, yeah. Woulda Coulda Shoulda

r keller on August 4, 2014 at 2:47 PM

If the GOP still actually believed in smaller, less intrusive government, lower taxes and the Constitution, there wouldn’t BE a Tea Party.

Meople on August 4, 2014 at 2:53 PM

jukin3 on August 4, 2014 at 2:43 PM

I don’t know, poor old dude doesn’t seem to know where he is let alone who to caucus with. Their Dem sounds pretty conservative, he might be good for some votes our way.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 3:03 PM

In addition to re-posting Nate Silver articles, watching MSNBC all day, and being pro-abortion, pro-amnesty, and pro-gay marriage, Noah Rothman also thinks gun control is a “valid point” that “many, many will make today.” But he does lament it, so I guess that makes him sorta conservative if you squint real hard.

Josh Sternberg ‏@joshsternberg

Congress will come out offering sympathies re: James Brady but won’t do anything to have better gun/ammo control.

Noah Rothman ‏@NoahCRothman

@joshsternberg Let’s take a few hours before politicizing this man’s passing.

Josh Sternberg ‏@joshsternberg

@NoahCRothman wasn’t meant for politicizing. meant as a tweet.

Noah Rothman ‏@NoahCRothman

@joshsternberg Success. And a valid point I think many, many will make today. I’m just lamenting it.

sauldalinsky on August 4, 2014 at 3:06 PM

verbaluce on August 4, 2014 at 2:15 PM

Thanks for the heads up, it does look good.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 3:06 PM

LIBERALS, pay no attention to the alarmist Nate Silver. All is well, go back to sleep. Stay home and wait for the welfare check, it’s safe under the democrat and rinocrat rule.

Nothing to see here, move along. Your six packs will be delivered on time for the ball games, no need to worry yourselves over insignificant matters like this. Back to sleep with you!

Diluculo on August 4, 2014 at 3:06 PM

sauldalinsky on August 4, 2014 at 3:06 PM

WTF? Ammo control?

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 3:07 PM

sauldalinsky on August 4, 2014 at 3:06 PM

I’ll never look to or count on Noah for a conservative view. He blew that right away.

Diluculo on August 4, 2014 at 3:08 PM

If Cochran is the candidate, I hope Mississippi goes Democrat.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 1:48 PM

If the senate goes 51/49 republican and Cochran wins he will turn democrat. Mark my words.

jukin3 on August 4, 2014 at 2:43 PM

Johnny Mac could too.

slickwillie2001 on August 4, 2014 at 3:16 PM

WTF? Ammo control?

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 3:07 PM

From the Federalist:

Gun Control Won’t Work, But Ammo Control Could

and Allen West:

Allen West warns Obama’s ‘backdoor gun control is moving forward’

Come 2014, all ammunition sold to civilian gun-owners in America will have to be imported, a result of President Obama’s crackdown on sulfur dioxide and lead emissions and accompanying harsh Environmental Protection Agency regulations, said former Florida congressman, Lt. Col. Allen West.

I wouldn’t put anything past the obama administration.

sauldalinsky on August 4, 2014 at 3:21 PM

Silver was told how much vote fraud was needed to win in ’12 and prognosticated accordingly.

Who cares what he says?

formwiz on August 4, 2014 at 3:23 PM

Utterly pointless. With Kirk, Collins. Graham, McLame, Ayotte and the rest of the jackass RINOs the GOP would need 70 Republicans to pass meaningful conservative legiation. Minimum.

Jaibones on August 4, 2014 at 3:31 PM

Yes, they SHOULD be able to win those nine seats. There are some good candidates in some of them too, like Tom Cotton and Joni Ernst.

But will they?

cat_owner on August 4, 2014 at 2:29 PM

Their numbers are looking good in August. Expect to see NH and VA start to tighten next month, and these leads will firm up. Remember CO, IA and NC are the Dem firewall. If they’re polling behind in those places, as they are now, you’re looking at a bona fide wave.

ezspirit on August 4, 2014 at 3:58 PM

RCP continues to list KY and GA as tossups, though the Republicans have respectable leads in both races. Expect the GOP to pick up the three givens of WV, SD, MT plus AR, LA and AK and don’t be surprised to see IA, CO and NC flip, too. How about 9 seats? It’s a distinct likelihood.

ezspirit on August 4, 2014 at 2:26 PM

I would not even consider those 9 needing a wave to achieve. Most are red states reverting to norm and IA and CO are usually closely contested between the parties. Now if Michigan, Oregon, Minnesota, or New Jersey flipped, then I would say its a wave effect because those are reliably blue states. If VA went to Gillespie, that would also take a wave election to bring about even though it is nominally a purple state, the Dems are running a popular former governor.

KW64 on August 4, 2014 at 4:11 PM

I’ll be happy if McConnell and Thad lose in November. That will send a shockwave thru the GOPe. Face it, what will McConnell do to stop Oboobie with a slim majority that he hasn’t been able to do as leader with a slim minority? Nothing.

Oboobie will run roughshod over him like he does Boehner all the time. With McConnell losing, that changes the calculus, especially if Dingy Harry loses his job and the republicans increase their winnings in both houses. The only way to square that is that the people are fed up with Rinos posing as conservatives.

Bring. It.

AH_C on August 4, 2014 at 4:37 PM

So tell me again… how does whether or not the Republicans take the Senate make a difference?

Shump on August 4, 2014 at 2:50 PM

Get the gavel out of dirty harry’s paws, and you’ll stop the endless stream of blue judge appointments.

Red Creek on August 4, 2014 at 4:44 PM

I’ll be happy if McConnell and Thad lose in November. That will send a shockwave thru the GOPe. Face it, what will McConnell do to stop Oboobie with a slim majority that he hasn’t been able to do as leader with a slim minority? Nothing.

AH_C on August 4, 2014 at 4:37 PM

At some point the republican establishment is going to realize you guys are much more trouble than you are worth and they can instead forsake you for a move to the center. Ultimately you need them more than they need you. They can forsake the tea partiers and move to grab the middle and achieve parity with little to no threat of you guys going dem. So you’ll wallow in third party status akin to the libertarians and greens.

Congratulations!

Tlaloc on August 4, 2014 at 5:18 PM

Get the gavel out of dirty harry’s paws, and you’ll stop the endless stream of blue judge appointments.

Red Creek on August 4, 2014 at 4:44 PM

Obama has appointed fewer judges than Reagan, Clinton, and dubya did.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_judicial_appointments#Judicial_appointments_by_President

Tlaloc on August 4, 2014 at 5:20 PM

Get the gavel out of dirty harry’s paws, and you’ll stop the endless stream of blue judge appointments.

Red Creek on August 4, 2014 at 4:44 PM

That is one of two sole reasons. Stop the appointment of radical jurists to the judiciary, and to force Obama to use his veto pen in the face of popular legislation. A bonus would be to disinvite Obama from coming to the Capitol, sparing the country from further State of the Union or joint congressional addresses.

Eastwood Ravine on August 4, 2014 at 5:27 PM

A little old Democrat lady and a few of her friends have taken credit for the KKK ads against McDaniel and the AG is investigating the guy who said he paid for votes. Why it’s going to turn out that Haley and the establishment are a pure as the driven snow!

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2014 at 5:34 PM

If Republicans manage to retake the Senate without a significant cushion, the party will likely only be renting the majority leader’s seat.

So what? It will allow the Senate to vote on the 300+ bills currently stalled in the Senate, and that is a start!

Let’s see the Democrats in the Senate run on voting against job creation in 2016. Good times for all!

DannoJyd on August 4, 2014 at 7:06 PM

Congratulations!
Tlaloc on August 4, 2014 at 5:18 PM

Woe is me, I’m so disenfranchised. No sweat. It will only take time before more and more will see the GOPe as just kinder gentler side of the progressives.

To paraphrase Ronaldus I didn’t leave the republican party, they left me starting with pappy Bush and good riddance. I’ll content myself with standing on this lil ole soapbox telling passerbys to give the GOPe the boot. Either they will listen or this country is lost. Your choice.

AH_C on August 4, 2014 at 7:15 PM

I’ll content myself with standing on this lil ole soapbox telling passerbys to give the GOPe the boot. Either they will listen or this country is lost. Your choice.

AH_C on August 4, 2014 at 7:15 PM

Amazing, either they listen to you and empower socialist traitors like Harry Reid or the country is lost..

If the past 6 years haven’t gotten your attention you are truly lost.

V7_Sport on August 4, 2014 at 9:29 PM

Amazing, either they listen to you and empower socialist traitors like Harry Reid or the country is lost..If the past 6 years haven’t gotten your attention you are truly lost.
V7_Sport on August 4, 2014 at 9:29 PM

Amazing. If the past 10 years haven’t gotten your attention, you are truly lost.

Did you support NCLB, SCHIPS, fixing the donut hole? Did you rail against Dubya wanting to reform SS or against McVain for wanting to deflate the housing bubble. If you answered yes to 2 or more, then you are not even 80% conservative.

If you supported TARP and the bailout of GM/Chrysler then you are a fascist(violating the rule of law in bankruptcy to steal from rightful creditors and stockholders to give an undeserved share to interlopers).

Begone socialist RINO.

AH_C on August 4, 2014 at 9:55 PM

Why are some of you folks getting all excited at the possibility of a Republican Congress? Do you really think anything will change? When will you learn that you are being played. The GOP will betray you.

Decoski on August 4, 2014 at 10:29 PM

51-49 would be a disappointment, but at least it would mean Harry Reid would go from Majority Leader of the Senate to ranking member of Agriculture and Fisheries. I wish Teddy Roosevelt was still around to teach that little creep the difference between the bully pulpit and the pulpit of a bully.

wagnert in atlanta on August 5, 2014 at 3:55 PM

“Democrats would remain the favorites to retake that chamber in 2016 when those GOP senators elected in 2010 face their state’s voters in a presidential year.”

I may have missed a few, but here are the GOP Senators up for reelection in 2016:

Shelby (AL), Murkowski (AK), McCain (AZ), Boozman (AR), Rubio (FL), Isakson (GA), ? (HI), Crapo (ID), Kirk (IL), Coats (IN), Grassley (IA), Moran (KS), Paul (KY), Vitter (LA), Blunt (MO), Ayotte (NH), Burr (NC), Portman (OH), ? (OK), Toomey (PA), ? (SC), Thune (SD), Lee (UT), Johnson (WI).

Here are the Dems up for reelection in 2016:

Boxer (CA), Bennet (CO), Blumenthal (CT), ? (HI), Mikulski (MD), Reid (NV), Schumer (NY), Wyden (OR), Leahy (VT), Murray (WA).

So where is the GOP’s big risk? Kirk may have trouble in Illinois, and maybe Portman (OH) and Toomey (PA). Who else? Perhaps Johnson (WI)? A lot depends on the coattails of the presidential winner, of course. I could see Democrat Reid losing (if he doesn’t cheat again). But I don’t see a Dem landslide. If the GOP hits 53 or 54 Senate seats in November 2014, I think it can weather the November 2016 storm.

Colony14 on August 5, 2014 at 9:17 PM