Did Rubio’s immigration flip-flop rehabilitate his image among Republicans?

posted at 2:01 pm on August 3, 2014 by Noah Rothman

Once a strong 2016 contender, Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) stock among conservatives dropped significantly after he helped to craft the Senate’s immigration reform bill.

Preliminary 2016 polling, which had shown Rubio at the top of the prospective GOP pack in late 2012 and early 2013, revealed his standing among conservatives had collapsed by the beginning of this year. Some analysts indicated that Rubio would ultimately recover from his immigration reform-induced collapse in the polls – his likely 2016 GOP opponents are not well positioned to attack the Florida senator from the right on immigration issues – but it would be months before Rubio would have the chance to rehabilitate his image with conservatives.

But the crisis on the southern border has provided Rubio with an opportunity to create some distance from his own immigration reform bill and to adopt a more hawkish stance on border security. Rubio has made the most of that opportunity, and it seems to be bearing fruit.

A recent Quinnipiac survey of the 2016 landscape in Florida found Rubio rebounding significantly among conservative voters in that critical Super Tuesday state. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who had been consistently trouncing his potential GOP opponents in his home state, has slid significantly among Republican primary voters. An April Quinnipiac poll found Rubio trailing both Bush and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). By July, however, Rubio had regained standing among Florida Republicans and is now statistically tied with Bush, at 18 and 21 percent support respectively, in the race for the GOP nomination in Florida.

Rubio’s penance on immigration reform is, however, coming at a price. While Rubio’s stock among conservatives is on the rise, standing in the media is falling proportionally.

In an appearance on Fox News Sunday this week, Rubio was forced to contend to explain why his overtly political flip-flop on immigration reform was not in any way political.

Wallace opened his interview with Rubio by noting how his standing among conservatives collapsed over the course of 2013, mostly due to his embrace of a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants as part of a comprehensive reform package.

“When I got involved in the issue, I knew how difficult it was politically,” Rubio conceded. He added that his original push for reform was based on his own belief that his was the right solution to a pressing problem.

“I don’t know what it means politically for me or anybody else, but that’s not my job,” Rubio added. “I didn’t get elected to maintain good poll numbers nationally.”

“If it’s not political, why have you flipped?” Wallace pressed.

“That’s not accurate, Chris,” Rubio replied. “We’re not debating what to do, we’re debating how to do it.”

Without noting what killed it, Rubio conceded that his original proposal for reforming the immigration system is dead. “So our choices are, we can either continue to beat out head against the wall and try a process for which we’ll never have support, or we can try another way we can make progress on,” he added.

Who knows how much of his lost standing among conservatives Rubio will be able to recover, but his rehabilitation has certainly begun earlier than most analysts predicted it would. Some Republicans will be turned off by the Florida senator’s flip on immigration, while others will never be able to trust his instincts on the issue of reform. But the longer Rubio’s position on the issue of reform mirrors that of his potential primary opponents, it’s likely that the prospective 2016 candidate will continue to recover in the polls.

This post has been updated since its original publication.


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The vote Friday was a statement of GOPe Party principles on immigration.

Do you seriously think Rubio would have voted NO on that? Would any GOP presidential candidate have the guts to vote against that crazy bill even though it was going no where and was purely a show vote?

Do you seriously think anyone voting against that Friday hate-filled bill would stand a chance with the rabid GOP primary voters?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:37 PM

You get a C- for figuring out your mistake so quickly. F- for your stupid explanation of the bill. As Schad says “go back into obama’s azz” where you belong.

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 3:43 PM

workingclass artist on August 3, 2014 at 3:38 PM

.
You’ll get a hoot from the current Drudge banner headline. I’m mean a real hoot.
.
(And think, before shad all over the Drudger)

FlaMurph on August 3, 2014 at 3:44 PM

You’re right. Romney was the most terriblest candidate ever. Go with Cruz, geniuses.
ConservativeLA on August 3, 2014 at 3:29 PM

No one, and I mean no one, promoted Romney more of this site than I did. But the truth is that he and his campaign team sucked from summer 2012-Election Day. He was limp (with the one exception of the first debate) and far too cautious.

And now I totally question his commitment to enforcing immigration laws and opposing amnesty. He has been promoting people like Christie and has been talking about the need for “reform” which means amnesty.

I haven’t heard him lately strongly oppose amnesty in years. His silence is totally unacceptable, especially considering this is the most important issue to conservatism’s future in this country.

I would vote Cruz ANY DAY over Romney.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 3:46 PM

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 3:43 PM

How dumb are you?

Do you even know how politics is played?

The entire GOPe Party now owns that vote on Friday..whether they were in house, senate, governor, whether they voted for it or not.

Every GOP 2016 presidential candidate will be asked if they support or oppose that bill. They will have to answer yes or no.

If they say a bunch of words, all voters and especially latino voters will know the real answer.

Being dumb and clueless is no way to go through life.. wake up the country is changing..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

Don’t argue with me. Tell this to Latino voters and ask them to vote for GOP.

LOL!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:43 PM

“The dumbazz mezicans are too stupid to vote for any candidate other than the D just like blacks”

Ned Peppers – The bigot/racist

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

The vote Friday was a statement of GOPe Party principles on immigration.

Do you seriously think Rubio would have voted NO on that? Would any GOP presidential candidate have the guts to vote against that crazy bill even though it was going no where and was purely a show vote?

Do you seriously think anyone voting against that Friday hate-filled bill would stand a chance with the rabid GOP primary voters?

Do you seriously think that Pelosi/Reid, when they were with obama for two years, wanted to pass amnesty?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:37 PM

Fool and hypocrite!!!

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

Don’t argue with me. Tell this to Latino voters and ask them to vote for GOP.

LOL!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:43 PM

I’m not quite sure you understand this … but hispanic Americans will suffer along with the rest of us. All American citizens will suffer regardless of ethnicity … including you.

Some may not understand it yet, but they will. Of course, when the democrats have millions of illegals that vote for them everyone’s vote gets cancelled out … including hispanics and anyone else who doesn’t want to see the country flooded with people who have no idea what America is, don’t care, and will instantly become government dependents.

Moron.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 3:49 PM

Nediot, why did Pelosi/Reid/obama not pass anything they wanted in the first 2 years of his dicktatorship?

Because it wasn’t politically feasible, FOOL.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:50 PM

How dumb are you?

Do you even know how politics is played?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

That’s right. Don’t vote in the best interest of the US and it’s people. Vote for whatever will get and keep you power … right Ned?

Simpleton. Another sad victim of progressive propaganda.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 3:51 PM

If they say a bunch of words, all voters and especially latino voters will know the real answer.

Being dumb and clueless is no way to go through life.. wake up the country is changing..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

“All Latino voters are illegal aliens”

Ned the bigot/moron

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 3:51 PM

“All Latino voters are illegal aliens”

Ned the bigot/moron

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 3:51 PM

He’s like a trained monkey. Performs commands well but has no idea what he’s saying or doing.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 3:53 PM

As Speaker here in Florida, Rubio blocked several immigration enforcement bills that had bi-partisan backing. They guy is so progressive on immigration that he is to the left of some Democrats. His “evolutions” toward the right always occur when the polls show that he needs them.

He is a sleazy liar whose removal from office is not so much a question of ideology, but of political hygiene.

Red Widow on August 3, 2014 at 3:53 PM

LOL!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:43 PM

L – ost
o – n
L – alaland

Poor Ned!

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:53 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:50 PM

Fool, King Barry wanted healthcare done first.

Remember what Biden said when healthcare was passed? BFD.

King Barry will be remembered forever as the President who led the greatest expansion of Social Safety Net after FDR passed Social Security.

Healthcare is much bigger than immigration, you chump.

I can’t believe I have to explain this to you…

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Marco Rubio is a nothing but a chubbier version of John McCain. McRubio’s support for illegal alien amnesty and his willingness to lie to voters about it when elections are nearing (“build the danged fence!”) should disqualify him from consideration.

Readers should know that the above article’s author, Noah Rothman, supports illegal alien amnesty and opposes conservatives.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Fool, King Barry wanted healthcare done first.

Remember what Biden said when healthcare was passed? BFD.

King Barry will be remembered forever as the President who led the greatest expansion of Social Safety Net after FDR passed Social Security.

Healthcare is much bigger than immigration, you chump.

I can’t believe I have to explain this to you…

Holy shit

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:56 PM

Fool, King Barry wanted healthcare done first.

Remember what Biden said when healthcare was passed? BFD.

King Barry will be remembered forever as the President who led the greatest expansion of Social Safety Net after FDR passed Social Security.

Healthcare is much bigger than immigration, you chump.

I can’t believe I have to explain this to you…

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Obama and democrats can’t do more than one thing at a time?

See how well trained you are? You repeat propaganda admirably even though you’ve stopped thinking years ago.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 3:56 PM

anotherJoe on August 3, 2014 at 2:48 PM

I just downloaded it and it worked for me ! Thanks!

cableguy615 on August 3, 2014 at 3:56 PM

I can’t believe I have to explain this to you…

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Nediot, I know all this. In other words you admit that YOU and him are only for ploys, and don’t give a damn about the promises he made to the illegals.

You’re easier than a feather.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:58 PM

Ned and his hosts are against all the blacks and other legal minorities, the middle class, and the taxpayers of the USA.

Pitchfork, politically, all the traitors of the USA, of the Land of Laws.

Thugs are all in front of you.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 3:59 PM

barry and the left are trash talkers. They want to mess with your mind.

So part of me thinks barry won’t have such a big immigration action. On the other hand…barry is also a bridge burner (like turning off coal plants when their capacity can not be replaced) That would argue that he’ll go Large…and that the 4 or 5 M is just the tease to get people used to the idea…then go with 10 to 15.

no doubt part of his calculus is who will be reversing that? The obama-loyalist press will shriek bloody murder in the next RINO tried to touch it…the UN will start talking about ethnic cleansing…etc etc etc.

the odds of being stopped by the court are low. So why not FT the county…generations of leftists will revere him

r keller on August 3, 2014 at 4:03 PM

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 3:56 PM

Obama did a lot than just pass healthcare you idiot. That is why TeaNuts are so mad about Obama fundamentally transforming America..

Here is what Obama and Pelosi did in 2009-2010. Pelosi did not take stupid show votes or had pull votes from the floor at the last minute like the current joke of speaker boehner has to do so often.

1. $780 billion Stimulus
2. Healthcare
3. Dodd-Frank
4. Got rid of Dont’ Ask Don’t Tell
5. Student loan reform
6. Lilly Ledbetter Fairpay Act
7. Save US Auto industry
8. Ended Iraq War
9. Passed Credit Card Reforms
10. Appointed Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan to Supreme court..

etc. etc. etc.

Are you mad enough now that have reminded you everything that pisses you off?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:04 PM

During the primary campaign Rubio said that he opposed a special pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens (which he said at the time was a code for amnesty), and then did a total 180 shift immediately after getting elected:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/the-curious-case-of-marco-rubio-amnesty-flip-flopper/

I would never, ever, ever vote for Rubio.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:05 PM

For Nediot, who hates the legal US children

Have the Dems forgotten their previous message?

That 20 million children in American go to bed hungry every night.

How can we support more empty mouths if we cannot feed 20 million of our own already?

Lunacy posing as empathy is idiocy.

profitsbeard on August 3, 2014 at 3:50 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:05 PM

Obama did a lot than just pass healthcare you idiot. That is why TeaNuts brung the R House and will bring the R senate. My pants are all wet are so mad about Obama fundamentally transforming America..

Here is what Obama and Pelosi did in 2009-2010. Pelosi did not take stupid show votes or had pull votes from the floor at the last minute like the current joke of speaker boehner has to do so often.

1. $780 billion Stimulus
2. Healthcare
3. Dodd-Frank
4. Got rid of Dont’ Ask Don’t Tell
5. Student loan reform
6. Lilly Ledbetter Fairpay Act
7. Save US Auto industry
8. Ended Iraq War
9. Passed Credit Card Reforms
10. Appointed Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan to Supreme court..

etc. etc. etc.

Are you mad enough now that have reminded you everything that pisses you off?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:04 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:06 PM

Are you mad enough now that have reminded you everything that pisses you off?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:04 PM

… and somehow they just couldn’t squeeze amnesty in there huh Ned?

By the way, where did that nearly one trillion dollar stimulus go anyway? No one seems to know.

My guess is democrat campaign coffers. Whaddya think?

Quick, call Progressive HQ for a response!!!

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:09 PM

Why does pro-illegal alien amnesty blogger Noah Rothman never use the term “amnesty” in his articles?

People like amnesty supporter Susanna Martinez (whom I had a lot of hope for, sadly ) gives away part of the game that pro-amnesty Republicans are playing. They are avoiding the word “amnesty” and even denying that they are for amnesty.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2012/11/16/susana-martinez-mitt-romney-comments/

The governor also said she hopes the party can change their tone, eliminating words like “amnesty” from the debate.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83960_Page2.html

After chatting with Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer a few minutes before, she said that Arizona’s restrictive immigration law is not the type she would implement in her state.
“And it can be tackled without using the word amnesty,” she said. “People can be in this country legally and contributing, and they can come here to do all kinds of jobs, not just jobs Americans don’t want, all kinds of jobs, get educated, the whole nine yards, but be here legally. And there’s a variety of ways of receiving that kind of status.”

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:10 PM

1. $780 billion Stimulus – epic fail – cars for clunkers and pimp in chief, to boot

2. Healthcare – see you in Nov.

3. Dodd-Frank – laughing at you

4. Got rid of Dont’ Ask Don’t Tell – no one but you and the slave care

5. Student loan reform – laughing at you, again

6. Lilly Ledbetter Fairpay Act – your side has war going on women

7. Save US Auto industry – GM is dead, along with Osama. Ford laughs.

8. Ended Iraq War – ISIS will cut your head off. Thank obama.

9. Passed Credit Card Reforms – heh

10. Appointed Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan to Supreme court.. – and they’ve done what for you?

etc. etc. etc. – Ned’s head is spinning out of control.

Are you mad enough now that have reminded you everything that pisses you off? – see you in Nov.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:04 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:11 PM

Most Americans oppose illegal alien amnesty. Don’t let anyone tell you that there is a strong desire out there among voters for amnesty or that immigration law enforcement is merely a concern of the conservative “base.”

That’s why pro-amnesty supporters have to lie to voters, hide their true intentions and pay for ads like this:

VIDEO: http://youtu.be/ecrUDjMlf5s. (Gives impression pro-amnesty Graham and pro-amnesty Rubio are for getting “tough” on illegal aliens)

And here’s a Mark Zuckerberg-funded, fake “conservative” ad that tries to trick voters into thinking the Republican sellout amnesty proposal was what was needed to “get tough” on illegals:
VIDEO: http://youtu.be/l9XRF_kqIN4

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:12 PM

etc. etc. etc.

11. Showed the illegals a big finger and their Latino relatives too.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:04 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:13 PM

For Nediot, who hates the legal US children

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:05 PM

Ned and his comrades hate all Americans that don’t toe the progressive line … especially their children. They love seeing their parents unemployed while Obama fawns over illegals promising them government benefits and jobs.

“Daddy, why can’t you find work?”

“Well honey, Mr. Obama has millions of friends that he thinks are more important”.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:13 PM

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:13 PM

Should I remind you of the DACA executive order for DREAMERS that helped Obama win the 2012 election with a solid Latino turnout. ;)

Obama won Florida, Colorado on the strength of latino turnout based on his actions for DREAMERS.

Isn’t DACA why TeaNuts are barking like mad dogs?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:18 PM

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:18 PM

Let me see if I understand you correctly.

The goal is to win, regardless of the consequences or the harm it does to the country or American citizens?

Is that about right?

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:21 PM

LIAR: Rubio tells different things to Spanish-language audience, promises that legalization would NOT be conditional on security:
http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/rubio-in-immigration-reform-legalization-comes-first-it-is-not-conditional/article/2531504

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:21 PM

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:21 PM

The goal is to keep crazy Republicans out.

Why? because as the former Australian Deputy PM put it well ““cranks and crazies” who have taken over the Republican Party are the greatest threat to the country’s economy”

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:25 PM

Do you seriously think Rubio would have voted NO on that? Would any GOP presidential candidate have the guts to vote against that crazy bill even though it was going no where and was purely a show vote?
Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:37 PM

Amazing that if it’s the Senate pushing something through with purely Dem votes that won’t pass the house, it’s a principled stance, but when it’s the House pushing through a bill it is a “show vote”. Funny how that works.

Ebola on August 3, 2014 at 4:25 PM

Why? because as the former Australian Deputy PM put it well ““cranks and crazies” who have taken over the Republican Party are the greatest threat to the country’s economy”

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:25 PM

When you have to rely on the Aussie DPM, you know you’re stretching for qualification.

Ebola on August 3, 2014 at 4:26 PM

In a Spanish-language interview Sunday with the network Univision, Sen. Marco Rubio, the leading Republican on the Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform group, made his strongest statement yet that legalization of the nation’s estimated 11 million illegal immigrants must happen before any new border security or internal enforcement measures are in place, and will in no way be conditional on any security requirements.

“Let’s be clear,” Rubio said. “Nobody is talking about preventing the legalization. The legalization is going to happen. That means the following will happen: First comes the legalization. Then come the measures to secure the border. And then comes the process of permanent residence.”


But on that he was very clear in his [Spanish-lanfuage] Univision appearance. “As for the legalization, the enormous majority of my colleagues have accepted that it has to happen and that it has to begin at the same time we begin the measures for [the border],” Rubio said. “It is not conditional. The legalization is not conditional.”

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/rubio-in-immigration-reform-legalization-comes-first-it-is-not-conditional/article/2531504

Who is even considering Rubio at this point? This is madness! He cannot be trusted. Why not just renominate McCain? That’s how crazy this would be. Rubio is simply McCain without the military service.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Should I remind you of the DACA executive order for DREAMERS that helped Obama win the 2012 election with a solid Latino turnout. ;)

Obama won Florida, Colorado on the strength of latino turnout based on his actions for DREAMERS.

Isn’t DACA why TeaNuts are barking like mad dogs?

We fooled Latinos, twice, and always.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:18 PM

Tell me something new, or shut up already, Nediot.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Leftists are out in Australia. Ned is slow.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:28 PM

The goal is to keep crazy Republicans out.

Why? because as the former Australian Deputy PM put it well ““cranks and crazies” who have taken over the Republican Party are the greatest threat to the country’s economy”

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:25 PM

So I’m right then. You’ll do anything to win.

Also, thank you for confirming that progressives believe goverance by the people, freedom and fiscal sanity are “crazy ideas”.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:28 PM

Leftists are out in Australia. Ned is slow.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 4:28 PM

You gotta remember Ned is simply repeating what he’s told. Poor guy … must get rough sometimes.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Should I remind you of the DACA executive order for DREAMERS that helped Obama win the 2012 election with a solid Latino turnout. ;)

Obama won Florida, Colorado on the strength of latino turnout based on his actions for DREAMERS.

Isn’t DACA why TeaNuts are barking like mad dogs?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:18 PM

Let me see if I understand you correctly.

The goal is to win, regardless of the consequences or the harm it does to the country or American citizens?

Is that about right?

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:21 PM

That is exactly correct. He is a BIG obaME! supporter who loves seeing regular Americans get screwed. He is a loser and it makes him feel better about his pathetic loser life to see others hurting. He would be the last person to give someone in need a helping hand.

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 4:29 PM

To answer the question, NO.

Do you seriously think anyone voting against that Friday hate-filled bill would stand a chance with the rabid GOP primary voters?

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:37 PM

Because there’s nothing more hateful than wanting to keep gangbangers and people with hoof-and-mouth out of the country.

Being dumb and clueless is no way to go through life.. wake up the country is changing..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

Too bad Ned doesn’t take his own advice.

formwiz on August 3, 2014 at 4:31 PM

Bah; you guys stop responding to Ned, please – he’s already been outed as “one of us”, a sock puppet. Don’t take him seriously, and don’t feed the wrong-headed notion that thinks what he’s doing is a good idea.

imo, fwiw

Midas on August 3, 2014 at 4:32 PM

Rubio betrayed those who brung him, and they will NEVER forget.

The buck is young and he’s pretty arrogant.

Schadenfreude on August 3, 2014 at 2:17 PM

As Laura Ingraham would say of the rino-amnesty gang “they think we’re stupid” when they do this type of lip-service 180.

whatcat on August 3, 2014 at 4:33 PM

bluegill : “Readers should know that the above article’s author, Noah Rothman, supports illegal alien amnesty and opposes conservatives.”

Hey, you’re right; found this:

http://24ahead.com/noah-rothman-and-glenn-beck-false-compassion-border-kids

I suppose if we’re not for amnesty, we lack compassion.
Oh, brother.

So what’s happening? This site’s reaching out to moderates? We’ve seen enough of it with false conservatives like Romney, McCain, Ryan, Cantor, Boehner…..the list is quite long.

Belle on August 3, 2014 at 4:38 PM

Should I remind you of the DACA executive order for DREAMERS that helped Obama win the 2012 election with a solid Latino turnout. ;)
Obama won Florida, Colorado on the strength of latino turnout based on his actions for DREAMERS.
Isn’t DACA why TeaNuts are barking like mad dogs?
Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:18 PM

The Hispanic vote isn’t why Romney lost:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2013/05/03/the_hispanic_vote_isn_t_why_romney_lost

However, the Hispanic vote was 7% of the electorate. This is not talked about much, but I think it’s kind of important. Obama and Romney split 7% of the electorate. Obama got 71% of it; Romney got 27% of it. “If all other factors remained the same, how large percentage of the Hispanic vote would Romney have had to win to capture the White House? What if Romney had won 44% of the Hispanic vote, the high-water mark for Republicans achieved by George W. Bush in 2004?”

No Republican has ever, in a presidential race, gotten more. So plug that number in. What if Romney gets 44% of the Hispanic vote — which, again, is 7% of the electorate. “As it turns out, if Romney had hit that Bush mark, he still would have lost, with 240 electoral votes to 298 for Obama. But what if Romney had been able to make history and attract 50% of Hispanic voters? What then? He still would have been beaten, 283 electoral votes to 255.” Okay, so let’s get really big here.

“What if Romney had been able to do something absolutely astonishing for a Republican and win 60% of the Hispanic vote? He would have lost by the same margin, 283 electoral votes to 255.” Okay, so let’s go all-in! Let’s give Romney 70% of the Hispanic vote. It’ll never happen. That’s what Obama got. Let’s give Romney the Obama percentage of the Hispanic vote. Let’s give Romney 70%. “Surely that would have meant victory, right? No, it wouldn’t. Romney still would have lost, although by the narrowest of electoral margins: 270 to 268.

“(Under that scenario, Romney would have won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College…) According to the Times’ calculator, Romney would have had to win 73% of the Hispanic vote to prevail in 2012.” What does this tell you? It tells me that the Hispanic vote’s not the problem, and I never have thought it’s the problem. You and I know what the Republican problem was in 2012. We just heard it late last week. It was a Pew Center poll. If the “white vote” had shown up in the same percentage and voted for Romney in 2012 as it voted for McCain in 2008, Romney would have won.

Obama got many fewer votes in 2012 than he got in 2008.

The difference-maker was, a lot of white voters stayed home.

Also, remember that Rubio, even when he was most vocal about his amnesty support last year, never polled much better than Romney among Latinos.

Amnesty would be eventually suicide not only for conservatism, but also for the country, and it wouldn’t even help much winning over Latino voters.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:42 PM

Dream team: West/Carson
Never happen.
Just relax. In ’16 we’ll get stuck with 2 more rinos.
I held my nose & voted for McAmnesty.
I held my nose & voted for RinoRomney.
& in ’16, I’m done holding my nose.

Belle on August 3, 2014 at 4:45 PM

If Rubio is talking to you, count your fingers and toes, and never, ever, take your eyes off of him.

thatsafactjack on August 3, 2014 at 4:46 PM

Midas on August 3, 2014 at 4:32 PM

That’s good advice. Why feed the trolls? It’s what they want.

cat_owner on August 3, 2014 at 4:47 PM

History Shows Amnesty Won’t Win Hispanic Votes for Republicans

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2012/11/13/history_shows_amnesty_won_t_win_hispanic_votes_for_republicans

In 1984, Ronald Reagan was elected president with 37% [of Hispanic vote]… By the way, I don’t care how far back you go, no Republican has ever received more than 40% of the Hispanic vote. No matter what they’ve done, no matter what they’ve said, no matter what their policies were, no Republican has ever received more than 40% of the Hispanic vote. It’s systemic. It votes Democrat.

They vote not based on immigration at all, and here’s the proof. In 1984, Ronaldus Magnus wins in a landslide, and in ’84 Ronaldus Magnus got 37% of the Hispanic vote. Two years later, Reagan signed into law amnesty for three million illegals, called Simpson-Mazzoli. Now, according to the wizards in the Republican consultancy class, that should have meant droves of Hispanics voting for the next Republican in 1988.

Reagan got 37% and passed amnesty. We showed the Hispanics we love ‘em, we cherish ‘em, we care about ‘em. We granted them amnesty. We gave citizenship to three-point-some-odd million of them in 1986. The next presidential election is George H. W. Bush in 1988. The percentage of the Hispanic vote that he got two years after amnesty was 30%. So ’84, Reagan: 37% Hispanic vote.

Two years later, amnesty (which was supposed to really make us loved and adored and really supported at the polls). Two more years, 1988, George H. W. Bush loses 7% of the Hispanic vote from Reagan’s ’84 totalitarians. So after amnesty… Now, you might not be able to claim that amnesty loss, but it certainly didn’t get us any more votes. We lost votes. Now, how do the Wizards of Smart on the Republican side explain this? I want to hear the explanation for this.

Again, very quickly (I know numbers are tough to follow on radio): in ’84, Reagan, 37% Hispanic vote in a landslide. Two years later, he grants amnesty to three million illegals. And in two more years, George H. W. Bush only gets 30% of the Hispanic vote. Two years after amnesty, the Republicans lose 7% of the Hispanic vote they had prior election. So where is this empirical evidence that reaching out and granting amnesty or pathway to citizenship or whatever works?

There isn’t any evidence that it accomplishes what the Republicans are dreaming that it will accomplish.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 4:52 PM

Amnesty was the straw the broke this camel’s back. I will never vote Republican again.

higgins1991 on August 3, 2014 at 4:53 PM

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:37 PM

You get a C- for figuring out your mistake so quickly. F- for your stupid explanation of the bill. As Schad says “go back into obama’s azz” where you belong.

VegasRick on August 3, 2014 at 3:43 PM

Hey, I own the Hot Gas grading franchise. You owe me royalties.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 4:54 PM

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 4:25 PM

Well I have to admit to being slightly more interested in a one termer in Australia than you.

Cindy Munford on August 3, 2014 at 4:55 PM

Amnesty was the straw the broke this camel’s back. I will never vote Republican again.

higgins1991 on August 3, 2014 at 4:53 PM

???

I’ll never understand. You’ll vote for the worst of the two?

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:55 PM

I can’t believe I have to explain this to you…

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Please explain to us why you happily voted for our current Secretary of State for President in 2004, and why you will happily vote for his predecessor for President in 2016, despite the fact that as Senators both believed Bush and Cheney’s lies and signed off on invading Iraq.

Take your time, I have a whole fleet of tick-powered sundials!

Oh, and good luck this week on the job hunt!

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 4:57 PM

You know, I have to think that black voters might finally either give some thought to sending a message to the Left or staying home. Who is this aggressive importing of illegal aliens going to hurt the most? These are not stupid people, lets see what the figure out before November.

Cindy Munford on August 3, 2014 at 4:58 PM

Readers should know that the above article’s author, Noah Rothman, supports illegal alien amnesty and opposes conservatives.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 3:54 PM

Yes. He is a follower of Leo Strauss. They are professional parasites and in the last several decades have infiltrated most major right-wing outlets, where they then remove their opponents on the right or demote them if they can’t. You don’t get a job unless you are one of them, a collaborator, or a sympathizer. They even had a mole at the Ayn Rand Institute. This is why we cannot get our views out into mainstream America except in online comments sections and indirectly in polls. I blame the businessmen like Rupert Murdoch and Steve Forbes who are too stupid to realize that their business and economic knowledge doesn’t mean they understand what is going on in the world. They let these destroyers in.

Observation Post on August 3, 2014 at 4:58 PM

RICK PERRY: RECORD NUMBER OF ILLEGALS FROM SYRIA, PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN BEING CAUGHT AT BORDER

Texas Governor Rick Perry said a record number of illegal immigrants from Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border.
On Sunday’s State of the Union on CNN, Perry said the “historic record highs” of individuals from “countries that have substantial terrorist ties” threaten America’s national security.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/03/Rick-Perry-Record-Number-of-Illegals-from-Syria-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Being-Caught-at-Border

Yet according to leftists we have no border crisis, and we need “comprehensive immigration reform” for the children.

cat_owner on August 3, 2014 at 4:59 PM

Observation Post on August 3, 2014 at 4:58 PM

That’s very interesting.

Cindy Munford on August 3, 2014 at 5:02 PM

Amnesty was the straw the broke this camel’s back. I will never vote Republican again.

higgins1991 on August 3, 2014 at 4:53 PM

???

I’ll never understand. You’ll vote for the worst of the two?

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 4:55 PM

Yeah, that’ll show them good. Let it burn or something.

I’m retiring into the purity bunker. Trusted associates will contact me on the TWX machine if anything changes. Bye for now.

slickwillie2001 on August 3, 2014 at 5:07 PM

slickwillie2001 on August 3, 2014 at 5:07 PM

I’m interested in sending a message and would be happy if it was done in Mississippi. One state is sufficient to start.

Cindy Munford on August 3, 2014 at 5:09 PM

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Let me tell you something.

My goal is simple.. Keep Crazy Republicans out of the White House.

I will donate money, register voters, knock on doors etc. etc. to keep crazy Republicans out of the White House.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:12 PM

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:12 PM

If only you’d extend that to other crazy partisans, it might be more respected. lol

Ebola on August 3, 2014 at 5:15 PM

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Let me tell you something.

My goal is simple.. Keep Crazy Republicans out of the White House.

I will donate money, register voters, knock on doors etc. etc. to keep crazy Republicans out of the White House.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:12 PM

Thanks for admitting you’re afraid to answer my question. I would be too.

And thanks for telling us how your Democrat Party lost the college graduate vote in 2012 to the Crazy Republicans. But we already knew that back in 2000, when your Democrat candidate set a for the time record with 61% of the high school dropout vote.

Good luck this week with the job search!

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:16 PM

There are too many Conservatives who NEVER flip flopped around to look back at Rubio.

When you are a True Conservative your principals are embedded in your core beliefs. You don’t make that mistake.

Nat George on August 3, 2014 at 5:18 PM

Nat George on August 3, 2014 at 5:18 PM

Are you actually inferring people’s opinions of a matter don’t change?

Ebola on August 3, 2014 at 5:20 PM

My goal is simple.. Keep Crazy Republicans out of the White House.

I will donate money, register voters, knock on doors etc. etc. to keep crazy Republicans out of the White House.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:12 PM

Apparently you don’t think a massive central government controlling everything people do, massive debt and deficit spending, flooding the country with uneducated, unskilled people who can’t speak english, shrinking our military while the world’s on fire, and spying on everyone at anytime and any place is crazy.

In the real world … that’s just nuts.

Good luck when an illegal takes your job.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 5:20 PM

And thanks for telling us how your Democrat Party lost the college graduate vote in 2012
Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:16 PM

Sorry, I forgot Mitt “Self-Deportation” Romney won the 2012 election in landslide.

LOL! I understand you though.. Considering how bad Mittens was beaten in 2012, I completely understand you clinging to one stat where you think Mitt won.

2012 was supposed to be a slam dunk election for GOP..All I heard was, “Even my dog can beat Obama” LOL!!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:21 PM

Rubio is worse than a RINO.

He was a trojan horse RINO.

faraway on August 3, 2014 at 5:22 PM

All I heard was, “Even my dog can beat Obama” LOL!!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:21 PM

Ned, honey, it was “Watch out, Obama can eat my dog”

faraway on August 3, 2014 at 5:25 PM

As Laura Ingraham would say of the rino-amnesty gang “they think we’re stupid” when they do this type of lip-service 180.

whatcat on August 3, 2014 at 4:33 PM

Yep, that Laura Ingraham is a real genius on immigration:

With some notable exceptions, FAIR’s board of directors, national advisory board, and staff include many population-control, pro-abortion, and forced-sterilization advocates. Their statements and membership in other pro-abortion population-control groups reveal their true ideological allegiances.

FAIR’s website openly touts environmentalist and population-control rhetoric….

That extreme population-control rhetoric is unsurprising, because FAIR’s executive director is population-control advocate Dan Stein. He routinely appears on radio and television shows arguing that immigration should be stopped because it increases the total population of the United States. Stein described China’s one-child policy as an “international family planning program.” He is married to Sharon McCloe Stein, the former executive director of Negative Population Growth (NPG)….

Planned Parenthood has many representatives on both FAIR’s main board and advisory board.

Yeppers.

ConservativeLA on August 3, 2014 at 5:26 PM

I haven’t heard Romney lately strongly oppose amnesty in years. His silence is totally unacceptable, especially considering this is the most important issue to conservatism’s future in this country.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 3:46 PM

It’s not silence. Romney is speaking out… FOR amnesty.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/05/30/Mitt-Romney-Not-Healthy-Congress-Hasn-t-Passed-Amnesty

anotherJoe on August 3, 2014 at 5:26 PM

neD,

Look’it, may be the 10% or more R voters who sat it out to help Mitt not win did so also so that Obama would win.
Understanding “amnesty” would have been a sure thing with Mitt.
Not so much with Obama considering he wants to use it to bring it all down.
Too there is the deal of showing the low info voters and the RINO’s how big a danger commie hate America (John Kerry traitors) and the Clinton team (Democrats in general) are in fact.

May have been better to let the skirmish go by and win the war in 2016 and do in the commies with their help, and be done with the treason for some time.

you know, thinking it through, not like mr “I will be King” with a pen and phone.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 3, 2014 at 5:33 PM

They think we’re not paying attention.

SouthernGent on August 3, 2014 at 5:34 PM

anotherJoe on August 3, 2014 at 5:26 PM

This sentence in the article seems to be contradictory.

Romney said he was not for a “special” pathway to citizenship and reportedly added “time is running out for” Congress to pass amnesty legislation this year.

He’s not for a special pathway to citizenship, which is amnesty, yet time is running out to pass amnesty legislation?

cat_owner on August 3, 2014 at 5:34 PM

DAVID BROOKS: REPUBLICAN BORDER STANCE THE ‘PALIN-IZATION’ OF GOP, BLAMES TED CRUZ

“This is about Palin-ization of parts of the GOP,” Brooks said. “This is not about passing legislation, not about, well, we’re in a party. We should pay attention to our leaders. We should craft some compromise. We should compromise with the other side. This is about making a statement that will sound good on Fox [News]. And so they want to make a statement that will sound good on TV or will sound good at a town meeting, but it’s not actually about governing.
Brooks went on to call for an “anti-Cruz” that be answer to Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) influence on Republican policy.
“And there are a lot of — and my question is, OK, Ted Cruz, senator, it should be said, met with a bunch of House members, which doesn’t happen that often, and sort of helped organize this. So, which senator is going to stand up and be the anti-Cruz? Who is going to stand up for Republican values, but I believe in governing? And so far, that person has not emerged.

LOL is all I can do.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:35 PM

Laura Ingraham: Marco Rubio has betrayed conservatives:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYp9PrLCLKs

anotherJoe on August 3, 2014 at 5:36 PM

Never trust a liar.Rubio sold us out.I will never support or vote for him.

redware on August 3, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Commies and RINO’s fear Ted Cruz so much they pee their pants just seeing him on TV.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 3, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Now neD, change the subject.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 3, 2014 at 5:39 PM

And thanks for telling us how your Democrat Party lost the college graduate vote in 2012

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:16 PM

Sorry, I forgot Mitt “Self-Deportation” Romney won the 2012 election in landslide.

LOL! I understand you though.. Considering how bad Mittens was beaten in 2012, I completely understand you clinging to one stat where you think Mitt won.

2012 was supposed to be a slam dunk election for GOP..All I heard was, “Even my dog can beat Obama” LOL!!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:21 PM

The first part of your posted that I bolded proves that English is not your first language. Say High to Dave Drywall for me.

The second part I bolded shows your utter stupidity; I don’t “think” that Romney won the college graduate vote in 2012, the overwhelming statistical results conclusively prove it. I could link to them all night, but like your dim friend Jimbo56 you’ll just refuse to admit their existence.

As for your favorite boogeyman, “crazy Republicans”, your Low-IQ Democrat Party calls a Republican crazy for calling O’bama a liar during the State of the Union address, but you don’t call Democrat Barney Frank crazy for admitting that O’bama lied to get O’bamacare passed.

And you wonder why we keep laughing at you?

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:40 PM

LOL is all I can do.

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:35 PM

We know.

You’re pretty stupid.

Maybe acknowledging that fact would start your road to recovery.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 5:41 PM

cat_owner on August 3, 2014 at 5:34 PM

Yeah, I’m not really a fan of Romney’s double talk. Here’s a Meet the Press segment that highlighted Romney’s call for amnesty in 2005, and count on the squish master and “severe conservative” Romney to try to talk his way out of the obvious flip flop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6_ktWZZmSo

anotherJoe on August 3, 2014 at 5:41 PM

neD,

We can do you post for you, heck some of us still have socks on lgf’s and post as loon liberals there and the posters think we are real unAmerican kooks like them.

We can post your bs most likely better than you, it all old hat sonny boy.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 3, 2014 at 5:41 PM

Being dumb and clueless is no way to go through life.. wake up the country is changing..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 3:48 PM

That’s why Obama’s approval is sky high and he’s not showing up in respected polls as “the worst president since World War 2.”

Open a window when you spark up that bong, parasite.

Hahahaha.

Chuck Schick on August 3, 2014 at 5:43 PM

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:40 PM

That is it? This is what you come back with?

Get out of here..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:44 PM

All I heard was, “Even my dog can beat Obama” LOL!!

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:21 PM

Ned, honey, it was “Watch out, Obama can eat my dog”

faraway on August 3, 2014 at 5:25 PM

O’bama envisions himself as Hawaiian Royalty.

They ate dogs, too.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:44 PM

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:40 PM

That is it? This is what you come back with?

Get out of here..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:44 PM

Admitting you’re not from the US seems to scare you.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:45 PM

anotherJoe on August 3, 2014 at 5:41 PM

That’s Romney’s problem. He’s got no principles. He just says what he thinks people want to hear.

Most people do not like a flip flopper. It’s finished Rubio, at least as a Presidential candidate.

We sure don’t need Romney of all people to run again.

cat_owner on August 3, 2014 at 5:50 PM

Take facts. Calif and Illinois are no. one and two on people leaving to move to Texas.

Obama is such a good thing people are running away from him.

Take facts.

CO2 is a plant food.

Take facts.

Obama care is a mess, cost going up, care going down, the web site a mess, no one knows who is covered and how.

Take facts.

John F. Kerry the Sec. of State appointed by Obama is a know traitor.

Take facts.

Ms Clinton is worse than Obama or Kerry.

down slope with a crater below

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 3, 2014 at 5:52 PM

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:40 PM

That is it? This is what you come back with?

Get out of here..

Ned Pepper on August 3, 2014 at 5:44 PM

Admitting you’re not from the US seems to scare you.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:45 PM

He admitted in a thread a couple of weeks ago that his parents are Irish illegal aliens from Canada. Don’t know if he’s an anchor baby or not, but they are probably a Traveler family.

slickwillie2001 on August 3, 2014 at 5:53 PM

He admitted in a thread a couple of weeks ago that his parents are Irish illegal aliens from Canada. Don’t know if he’s an anchor baby or not, but they are probably a Traveler family.

slickwillie2001 on August 3, 2014 at 5:53 PM

So, he’s in it for a free ride then.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 5:57 PM

Admitting you’re not from the US seems to scare you.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 5:45 PM

He admitted in a thread a couple of weeks ago that his parents are Irish illegal aliens from Canada. Don’t know if he’s an anchor baby or not, but they are probably a Traveler family.

slickwillie2001 on August 3, 2014 at 5:53 PM

I’m shocked. Time to take a drive past Claude Rains’ grave.

I had poor Ned’s foreign origin sniffed out way back thanks to its horrible use of the English language.

You still here, Neddy? Let’s forget about how O’bama lost the college graduate vote in 2012. Please tell us why he also overwhelmingly lost the vote of Independent voters that year.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 6:03 PM

He admitted in a thread a couple of weeks ago that his parents are Irish illegal aliens from Canada. Don’t know if he’s an anchor baby or not, but they are probably a Traveler family.

slickwillie2001 on August 3, 2014 at 5:53 PM

Maybe we should start a White House petition to have him deported. Since he’s probably white it should fly.

darwin on August 3, 2014 at 6:04 PM

neD,

Look’it, may be the 10% or more R voters who sat it out to help Mitt not win did so also so that Obama would win.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 3, 2014 at 5:33 PM

Some of those 10% who sat it out in 2012 post here. We know who they are and we’re still laughing at their stupidity.

Del Dolemonte on August 3, 2014 at 6:04 PM

California has now become a solidly Democrat state. It’s a mess. Thank Reagan’s misguided illegal alien amnesty for that.

Is this what we want to see happen in other states like Texas? Pass another amnesty and it won’t be too long before TX goes blue.

bluegill on August 3, 2014 at 6:05 PM

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