Rebound: Q2 GDP hits 4%

posted at 10:01 am on July 30, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The US economy took an unexpected beating in the first quarter, but made a big rebound in the second. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 4% in the spring, a welcome change from the newly-adjusted -2.1% contraction in Q1:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent (revised).

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 10). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.

Just as the steep drop in Q1 seemed odd based on its internals, so does the big upside in today’s report. All the news looks pretty good, but not the kind of great that one would expect from 4% growth. For instance, real personal consumption expenditures — consumer spending — only jumped up 2.5% in Q2, and that had risen 1.2% in Q1, which was one of the puzzles of the awful GDP number last quarter. Services only grew 0.7%, less than the 1.3% in Q1. Real final sales of domestic product, which factors out inventory growth, increased 2.3% after falling one percent in Q1. That’s not really spectacular growth; it’s more or less what we’ve experienced since the end of the Great Recession.

The big change from Q1 to Q2 was in exports. Exports in Q1 fell 9.2%, but jumped up 9.5% in Q2, a sign of strength — or perhaps just a sign of deferred sales from Q1. Imports also rose sharply (11.7% vs 2.2% in Q1), but that doesn’t get reflected in the PCE numbers. Real gross domestic purchases, which measures overall purchases that includes imports, rose 4.5%, but a significant portion of that seems to be inventory growth, which accounts for 1.66 points of the GDP number in Q2.

Nevertheless, it’s a lot better than a -2.1%, and the Associated Press was impressed:

Last quarter’s rebound was broad-based, with consumers, businesses, the housing industry and state and local governments all combining to fuel growth. The robust expansion will reinforce analysts’ view that the economy’s momentum is extending into the second half of the year, when they forecast an annual growth rate of around 3 percent. …

In the April-June quarter, business investment in new equipment jumped at a 7 percent rate after having fallen 1 percent in the first quarter. That setback had reflected the expiration of business tax breaks at the end of 2013. Those tax breaks led companies to boost equipment spending at the end of last year.

Businesses, optimistic about future demand, increased their stockpiling last quarter. The increase in inventories contributed two-fifths of the growth in the quarter after having subtracted 1 percentage point from first-quarter activity.

That only works if consumer spending picks back up. The PCE rate of 2.5% growth is decent but not spectacular, and stockpiling has been seen before in this recovery only to see discounting later to clear warehouses. Watch the real final sales of domestic product in the next couple of quarters to get a better sense of how well this gamble pays off.

ADP provided more good news on the economic front. Their estimation of private-sector hiring shows 218,000 jobs added in July, which is a step down from June’s 281K but still the fourth month in a row above 200K:

Private sector employment increased by 218,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Goods-producing employment rose by 16,000 jobs in July, down from 43,000 jobs gained in June. The construction industry added 12,000 jobs over the month, less than half last month’s gain. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in July, less than one-third the number of jobs added in June.

Service-providing employment rose by 202,000 jobs in July, down from 238,000 in June. TheADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 61,000 jobs in July, down from 79,000 in June. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 52,000, down slightly from June’s 56,000. The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down 25% from last month’s number.

“Although down from June, the July jobs number marks the fourth straight month of employment gains above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.

The ADP report this year has proven to be a pretty good indicator of the BLS report, which is due on Friday. The figure itself is like the PCE figure in the GDP report — it’s decent but not spectacular, and not all that much different than what we’ve been seeing. The US economy needs to add 150K jobs to keep up with population growth, so the addition of 68,000 more jobs over that figure is not going to penetrate far into the millions of the chronically unemployed. We need sustained job growth in the 300K-400K range for a significant period to deal with that problem, and that’s not even addressing whether the jobs created are full time or part time.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Prove it’s doing well. I’m a small business owner and don’t see it happening, and I’m not alone.

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 10:54 AM

Have you considered that you’re biz not doing well might be for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama…or the Dems…or the Left…or illegal immigrants…or Obama…?
Thinking past all that might shift your focus towards factors that could improve your business.
Remember…you built it.
Right?
Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

Pass the salt. Ever notice how the Obama Administration’s economic performance figures are always quietly revised about a month or two later? Usually on Friday afternoons? And always, ALWAYS, downwards?

Zumkopf on July 30, 2014 at 11:12 AM

Good news is thousands of Americans are finding those jobs you keep inquiring about.

farleftprogressive on July 30, 2014 at 10:47 AM

A complete and utter LIE. We go through this dance every time the GDP is published and then corrected down and down and down again.

92 million no longer in the workforce and 25 million actual unemployed. Yeah we’re just booming. Moron.

dogsoldier on July 30, 2014 at 11:12 AM

Pass the salt. Ever notice how the Obama Administration’s economic performance figures are always quietly revised about a month or two later? Usually on Friday afternoons? And always, ALWAYS, downwards?

Zumkopf on July 30, 2014 at 11:12 AM

This is not true.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:13 AM

All of this Administration’s “achievements” are subject to revision.

Downward.

formwiz on July 30, 2014 at 11:14 AM

Have you considered that you’re biz not doing well might be for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama…or the Dems…or the Left…or illegal immigrants…or Obama…?
Thinking past all that might shift your focus towards factors that could improve your business.
Remember…you built it.
Right?
Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

GD you’re a fukking moron. Gee, have you considered someone who has built their own business would recognize the issues that are impacting said business better than you?

Consider taking your face out of obama’s crotch at some point in your life. You might enjoy the view.

HumpBot Salvation on July 30, 2014 at 11:14 AM

BS, my Son works for Target and he said they have had shitty numbers and he is privy to other “similar” stores and they report the same…

sandee on July 30, 2014 at 10:23 AM

Wal-Mart mgmt folks have been saying the same thing.

Midas on July 30, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 10:54 AM

The only people doing well are the companies erecting signs that read “For Lease!” business or commercial space.

Those signs are going up everywhere. Every high tech office park I have worked at recently has 2 occupants in a park with eight to fourteen buildings. One park near where I work has a sign that reads that the ENTIRE park is now available.

Yeah we are in wreckovery summer amiright?

dogsoldier on July 30, 2014 at 11:16 AM

I’ll peg final revision number at 0.5% or lower.

Even if we assume that the big lie (better known as the first Obama guess) is 4% that still puts yearly at at under 1%. But we know it is all BS because King Barky the Liar needs some feel goods for his poll numbers.

jukin3 on July 30, 2014 at 11:17 AM

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Revisit your assumptions.
The lead-up to the 2012 General Election would have includes stories citing the Q2 1.5 and upward revision to 1.7. Those would be followed by the !!11!!Q3 adv est of 2.0. That would far overshadowed ANY coverage of the Q2 downward (between 10-26 and election day).

BTW, the Q3 upward third revision was published Thursday before Christmas–showing how ‘politically’ important it was to the administration.

Also, many thanks for the dave manuel link. I had lost it from my favorites after my old ‘puter took a dump in Nov.

socalcon on July 30, 2014 at 11:19 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

What a contemptuous and arrogant putz you are…..

Have you considered that you’re biz not doing well might be for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama…or the Dems…or the Left…or illegal immigrants…or Obama…?
Thinking past all that might shift your focus towards factors that could improve your business.

You’re so presumptuous that you KNOW what his business is, what the conditions are in his local economy, that you can blame him for the challenges as opposed to the effects of the weakest, slowest economic recovery in over 70 years? You don’t know if he works B2B or B2C – but any problem is a reflection of his leadership and management and not excessive taxes, excessive regulations, a real unemployment rate of 15-18%, stagnating wages and incomes?

Remember…you built it.
Right?

No, as you progressive fascists are quick to remind us, we didn’t build it. Apparently any success is because of the progressive fascists and any failures are because we are failures because we aren’t progressive fascists and fully subscribe to your agenda.

Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

Stuff your empty platitudes, troll.

Athos on July 30, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Eggleston, are you out there?
 
Does a GDP evaluation work the same way recouping losses in the stock market does ?
 
(For our (D)s, the way stocks work is in order to make up a 50% loss, you have make a 100% gain just to break even.)
 
Or are there no real gains/losses and it’s just viewed in an X-year/month window?

rogerb on July 30, 2014 at 11:20 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

GD you’re a fukking moron.

HumpBot Salvation on July 30, 2014 at 11:14 AM

How’s your summer going?
A little rain where I am, but otherwise it’s just been perfect weather.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Prove it’s doing well. I’m a small business owner and don’t see it happening, and I’m not alone.

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 10:54 AM

I can’t.

verbaloon on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

Fixed.

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:23 AM

Awesome, jobs should be rolling in pretty much everywhere. I can’t wait until companies need to start offering cars and such just to get people in the door.

Bishop on July 30, 2014 at 11:23 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

Spare us your patronizing pity. Don’t you realize this -tentative- good news is despite, not because of, Democrat fiscal policies?

A small business owner is in a much better place to judge than you.

Buck Farky on July 30, 2014 at 11:23 AM

President Bong-Hit will go down in history as the ‘sly guy’ who pulled the wool over the media.

Red Creek on July 30, 2014 at 10:32 AM

Must be a wool blanket, because they’re in the same bed.

Patrick S on July 30, 2014 at 11:24 AM

I live in one of the poorest counties in the state and the only expansion here is that the state is doubling the size of the welfare office. Construction here is flat and agriculture exports have to compete with foreign products. Seems we have been in a depression for years. The state is still running a deficit and this is a very blue state ,,, Washington.

garydt on July 30, 2014 at 11:25 AM

For 2 comparable historical examples. Most recent Advance estimate that was 4% or higher and the most recent ‘final’ estimate that was 4% or higher:
—————–
The last advance estimate on quarterly GDP that exceeded 4% was 2009 Q4. Advance estimate was 5.7%, currently sits at 3.9%.

Let’s look at its history of revisions:

Revised: 3.9 Jul 30, 2014
Revised: 3.9 Jul 31, 2013
Revised: 4.0 Jul 27, 2012
Revised: 3.8 Jul 29, 2011
Revised: 5.0 Jul 30, 2010
Revised: 5.6 May 27, 2010
Third: 5.6 Mar 26, 2010
Second: 5.9 Feb 26, 2010
Advance: 5.7 Jan 29, 2010

In other words, downward revision.
————
The last actual Quarterly GDP number to exceed 4% was 2013 Q3 which currently sits at 4.5% on it’s 4th revision (still subject to further revision). The advance estimate for that quarter was 2.8%.

In other words, currently an upward revision.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:26 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

GD you’re a fukking moron. Gee, have you considered someone who has built their own business would recognize the issues that are impacting said business better than you?

Consider taking your face out of obama’s crotch at some point in your life. You might enjoy the view.

HumpBot Salvation on July 30, 2014 at 11:14 AM

My business is now in its 16th year. I started it from scratch.

Since Dear Leader took office, regulations for the type of business I do have tripled, with the resulting increase in out of pocket expenses for me to pay to the government so I can stay in business.

Many of my business clients have also told me that they have also been affected; the majority of them say that the slowdown started in late 2013, when O’bamacare kicked in. Gee, wonder if there is any connection there?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:27 AM

Have you considered that you’re biz not doing well might be for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama…or the Dems…or the Left…or illegal immigrants…or Obama…?
Thinking past all that might shift your focus towards factors that could improve your business.
Remember…you built it.
Right?
Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

Nice attempt at a reversion there.

It’s us idiots on the left who think people build their own success so failure can ONLY come from individual effort right?

No – government can destroy wealth (not create it). Government can destroy opportunity – not create it.

Government is good at redistributing – not creating. It an cut up that pizza into different sized pieces but it cannot grow that pie. In practice government favors big business over small business.

But thanks for displaying the typical lefty contempt for your fellow man and colossal ignorance of the real issues on the ground while lecturing someone who’s actually living it. You know better right?

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 11:29 AM

All of this Administration’s “achievements” are subject to revision.

Downward.

formwiz on July 30, 2014 at 11:14 AM

hmm, just noting Libya and Russia, at the moment. Oops, the Mideast ceasefire, too.

socalcon on July 30, 2014 at 11:29 AM

Another thing I don’t believe any data coming from this federal gov’t run by the crooks. I don’t much believe when it reported a negative growth last winter either. That goes for the state gov’t too.

garydt on July 30, 2014 at 11:30 AM

My business is now in its 16th year. I started it from scratch.

Since Dear Leader took office, regulations for the type of business I do have tripled, with the resulting increase in out of pocket expenses for me to pay to the government so I can stay in business.

Many of my business clients have also told me that they have also been affected; the majority of them say that the slowdown started in late 2013, when O’bamacare kicked in. Gee, wonder if there is any connection there?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:27 AM

Don’t worry – verbaluce is on the case.

He/she wants you to know that government regulation is for your own good and that if you can’t deal with it it’s because you suck or you’re doing something that’s harming the public so it’s good that regulations are impeding you.

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 11:30 AM

Of course you do. It hurts to see the economy doing so well under that president you despise doesn’t?

farleftprogressive on July 30, 2014 at 10:43 AM

You should know. I’ll bet you were screaming “McJobs” during Bush’s terms of 4.5% unemployment. Only problem is, this “recovery” is nothing but part-time low-paying jobs. Partly because of the incentives built into Obamacare. It’s exactly what you accused Bush of, but I guess you don’t care as long as it’s your guy in the WH.

Buck Farky on July 30, 2014 at 11:30 AM

Revisit your assumptions.
The lead-up to the 2012 General Election would have includes stories citing the Q2 1.5 and upward revision to 1.7. Those would be followed by the !!11!!Q3 adv est of 2.0. That would far overshadowed ANY coverage of the Q2 downward (between 10-26 and election day).

BTW, the Q3 upward third revision was published Thursday before Christmas–showing how ‘politically’ important it was to the administration.

Also, many thanks for the dave manuel link. I had lost it from my favorites after my old ‘puter took a dump in Nov.

socalcon on July 30, 2014 at 11:19 AM

The Q2 2012 number was revised downward to 1.3 in September after going up to 1.7 in August from the original advance estimate of 1.5 from July.

It’s all about how the media covers the revisions. My opinion: The Media typically hammer downward revisions during GOP admins and celebrates the upward revisions during Dem admins.

This gives the perception that Obama is getting his numbers all revised upwards which is not true. It is a perception problem created by the media.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:30 AM

This gives the perception that Obama is getting his numbers all revised upwards which is not true. It is a perception problem created by the media.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:30 AM
Downwards.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

Stuff your empty platitudes, troll.

Athos on July 30, 2014 at 11:20 AM

I truly have no personal animosity towards Del and meant what I said.
But think what you will…as you do.

No, as you progressive fascists are quick to remind us, we didn’t build it. Apparently any success is because of the progressive fascists and any failures are because we are failures because we aren’t progressive fascists and fully subscribe to your agenda.

And put me in whatever box you want…as you do.
Your comment above is interesting, as you see any success to be in spite of Obama/progressive policies and any failures to be fully a result of Obama/progressive policies.
I’m sure you welcome 218k jobs (right?) – but I’m not surprised that you’ll spin it as you will.
I don’t think it’s something to pop any champagne corks over. But I also don’t see it as something to spit at.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

My business is now in its 16th year. I started it from scratch.

Since Dear Leader took office, regulations for the type of business I do have tripled, with the resulting increase in out of pocket expenses for me to pay to the government so I can stay in business.

Many of my business clients have also told me that they have also been affected; the majority of them say that the slowdown started in late 2013, when O’bamacare kicked in. Gee, wonder if there is any connection there?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:27 AM

You didn’t start it from scratch! You used roads built by the government. You hired employees educated by the government. Success is practically guaranteed because of government. You’re just whining because you don’t want to pay your fair share to give back just a little to the people of what they gave to you.

/Obama (accurate paraphrase from one of his recent speeches)

It’s good seeing the fascists reveal themselves.

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 11:35 AM

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:26 AM

I would think this would be a little obvious:

Q3 and Q4 announcement ‘values’ are on the initial estimates. That is, primaries and generals are influenced by Q1 and Q2 revisions and the Q3 initial estimate.

socalcon on July 30, 2014 at 11:35 AM

…incomplete or subject to further revision

Yea, I remember trying that line once when I turned a finished project over to the boss.

Once.

Tsar of Earth on July 30, 2014 at 11:37 AM

I truly have no personal animosity …
verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

The Grand Canyon was not made from a single water droplet, but millennia of coursing river currents.

Think about it.

socalcon on July 30, 2014 at 11:38 AM

And put me in whatever box you want…as you do.
Your comment above is interesting, as you see any success to be in spite of Obama/progressive policies and any failures to be fully a result of Obama/progressive policies.
I’m sure you welcome 218k jobs (right?) – but I’m not surprised that you’ll spin it as you will.
I don’t think it’s something to pop any champagne corks over. But I also don’t see it as something to spit at.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

Not any and every failure is chalked up to progressive policies but building and operating a successful venture is difficult in the best of circumstances and progressive policies make it much much more difficult. Usually on purpose. Especially on small businesses.

And not every success is seen as being despite progressives – progressives are fascists so they will pick some economic winners. Big businesses love progressives in office because they like to form “public-private partnerships” and regulations which big businesses love.

ObamaCare is kicking off a part-time economic “boom” and you want to tout it?

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 11:39 AM

I would think this would be a little obvious:

Q3 and Q4 announcement ‘values’ are on the initial estimates. That is, primaries and generals are influenced by Q1 and Q2 revisions and the Q3 initial estimate.

socalcon on July 30, 2014 at 11:35 AM

2012 Q3 initial estimate: 2.0% later revised upwards (value on the initial hurts Obama in this instance)

2012 Q2 revision in September revised downward on Sept 27th (last adjustment before the election. Hurts Obama in this instance)

2012 Q1 revision in August unchanged (last assessment before the election. No revision to impact Obama either way).

Not seeing the stars align in favor of Obama with the BEA estimates for the 2012 election. The media coverage of these estimates and adjustments may be a different story.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:42 AM

FYI my comments apply to my industry as a whole and are not just about my own personal small business. Each and every one of my fellow owners in the same field have experienced the exact same results since late 2013.

And what is so damning about that is that said results remove the possibility that our businesses are seeing these results because of anything we are doing wrong.

No, it’s what the government is doing wrong.

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:51 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

I know you were shooting for Del to consider the alternatives but you sure come off sounding like a jerk. After all, he knows far better than you ever will where the changes in his business have been.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 11:52 AM

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:51 AM

And the world continued to turn and no one died before the tripling of said regulations, correct?

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

But thanks for displaying the typical lefty contempt for your fellow man and colossal ignorance of the real issues on the ground while lecturing someone who’s actually living it. You know better right?

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 11:29 AM

You’re being silly and I have no contempt for Del’s efforts/success/struggles with his business.
My point is that the obsessive animus towards Obama fueled by the right becomes truly irrational when news of 218k jobs added is met with derision…and the now cliched contempt for Obama.
I have no illusions about where the GOP’s allegiances primarily lie – and for all their platitudes, it’s not with guys trying to run a small business.
You think it is. Fine. I’ve never witnessed anything more than election timed lip service. When it comes to policy and legislation. They have no issue with redistribution, as long as it’s ‘up’. And then Del etc. will benefit from what trickles down? ‘Trickle’. I’m not delusional – I don’t see Obama or the Dems as the holy grail and wise elders I’m accused of. But given the choice, I’m with the guys who don’t think governing is a horrible thing. They’ve warped the idea of ‘limited government’ into ‘no government’. And my thinking that puts me far closer to the center than the ‘progressive fascist’ I get called.

But anyway…how’s your summer going?

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

The 2014 Q1 adjustment to this point going from 0.1 to -2.1 is the largest gap between initial and most recent estimates since 2011 Q1 which went from 1.8 initial (advance) to -1.5 (current estimate).

Next largest change is 2008 Q4 (initial -3.8, current -8.2). 4.4% shift over 5 years of estimate updates.

2014 Q1: 2 point shift in estimate
2011 Q1: 3.3 point shift in estimate
2008 Q4: 4.4 point shift in estimate

Given recent history, at worst, the current number could be revised to -0.4% with a 4.4 point shift. (this is unlikely since 4th quarter 2008 was when everything came crashing down, understandably the initial estimate didn’t catch the depth of the economic downturn).

The next highest revision (and the highest of Obama’s term was a 3.3 point swing) could push this number down to +0.7% GDP growth.

I saw some estimates saying it might be revised down to 0.8% which would mean that this would have to be almost equal to the largest revision to Obama-era GDP numbers.

My prediction based on historical numbers is that there is almost zero chance the revision ends up taking Q2 2014 growth into negative territory.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:54 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

I know you were shooting for Del to consider the alternatives but you sure come off sounding like a jerk. After all, he knows far better than you ever will where the changes in his business have been.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 11:52 AM

Well if I sounded like one, I wasn’t trying to be one.
When I say ‘sincerely’ I mean it.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:55 AM

My point is that the obsessive animus towards Obama fueled by the right becomes truly irrational when news of 218k jobs added is met with derision…
 
verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

 
Take it up Nobel winning economist Paul Krugman:
 

But let’s set a more modest goal: return to more or less full employment in 5 years –which means seven lean years of depressed employment. To keep up with population growth over those 7 years, the United States would have had to add 84 times 127,000 or 10.668 million jobs. (If that sounds high, bear in mind that we added more than 20 million jobs over the 8 Clinton years). Add in the need to make up lost ground, and we’re at around 18 million jobs over the next five years — or 300,000 a month.

So that’s a useful benchmark. Even if we add 300,000 jobs a month, we’re looking at a prolonged period of suffering — a huge cost from the Great Recession. So that’s kind of a minimal definition of success. Anything less than that, and it’s bad news.
 
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/10/the-jobs-deficit/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

rogerb on July 30, 2014 at 11:58 AM

When the “housing crisis” came along, one of the things the government did, was require all mortgage brokers to take a national test and a test for each individual state they might write mortgages in. My employer did well since they proctor the tests. Now that the refinance wave is over, the mortgage companies that hired in waves and laying off in waves. And on top of that, the bad lending practices are being reinstated. You can’t make this stuff up.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 11:59 AM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:55 AM

I believe you but I’m sure I’m in a small minority of Pollyanas in the HotAir world.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 12:00 PM

My business is now in its 16th year. I started it from scratch.

Since Dear Leader took office, regulations for the type of business I do have tripled, with the resulting increase in out of pocket expenses for me to pay to the government so I can stay in business.

Many of my business clients have also told me that they have also been affected; the majority of them say that the slowdown started in late 2013, when O’bamacare kicked in. Gee, wonder if there is any connection there?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 11:27 AM

You should be deservedly proud of your business and it’s successes.
I regret the tone of my comment earlier. I was trying to make a different point and I can see how came off as a dig at you personally or as snark about your business acumen.
I try to be mindful that when I engage here – as testy and spirited as it gets – that I don’t get personal about people I do not know personally. So my bad in crossing that line with respect to your business.
My apologies.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 12:01 PM

My point is that the obsessive animus towards Obama fueled by the right becomes truly irrational when news of 218k jobs added is met with derision…

verbaloon on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

Said derision is solely because of the history of dishonesty and manipulation with those numbers by Dear Leader and his Cultists since January of 2009.

Quick question: Is Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid obsessive about the Koch Brothers?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:03 PM

I think they misplaced the decimal point, it’s really 0.4 percent.

JimK on July 30, 2014 at 12:06 PM

Remember…you built it.
Right?
Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

You insufferable arrogant gnat, how dare you?

Schadenfreude on July 30, 2014 at 12:06 PM

When the “housing crisis” came along, one of the things the government did, was require all mortgage brokers to take a national test and a test for each individual state they might write mortgages in. My employer did well since they proctor the tests. Now that the refinance wave is over, the mortgage companies that hired in waves and laying off in waves. And on top of that, the bad lending practices are being reinstated. You can’t make this stuff up.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 11:59 AM

The bad lending policies are being reinstated because the same guy is in the Justice Department now as was in DOJ back when Bill Clinton tripled the number of subprime mortgages issued in the US.

Dude named Eric Holder.

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:07 PM

, I’m with the guys who don’t think governing is a horrible thing. They’ve warped the idea of ‘limited government’ into ‘no government’. And my thinking that puts me far closer to the center than the ‘progressive fascist’ I get called.

But anyway…how’s your summer going?

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

Right now, I would go for competent government. Obama has demonstrated the problem with Big Government. One wrong executive in charge cannot manage it effectively. All it takes is election of one wrong person. Similar to how the left derides big business CEOs, like the Kochs. If the Koch’s are truly evil and have so much negative influence, then surely they should see the problem if one evil person were elected to run the entirety of the Federal bureaucracy that actually has a direct impact over the day-to-day lives of the entire country.

Who is saying ‘no government’?

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 12:07 PM

Ok, verbie, just saw your apology. At least you got some sense back.

Schadenfreude on July 30, 2014 at 12:08 PM

Their estimation of private-sector hiring shows 218,000 jobs added in July, which is a step down from June’s 281K but still the fourth month in a row above 200K:

 

My point is that the obsessive animus towards Obama fueled by the right becomes truly irrational when news of 218k jobs added is met with derision…

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

Even if we add 300,000 jobs a month, we’re looking at a prolonged period of suffering — a huge cost from the Great Recession. So that’s kind of a minimal definition of success. Anything less than that, and it’s bad news.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/10/the-jobs-deficit/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

rogerb on July 30, 2014 at 11:58 AM

 
And just so none of us misunderstand, you’re praising the 218K jobs number, right verbaluce?

rogerb on July 30, 2014 at 12:08 PM

rogerb on July 30, 2014 at 11:58 AM

he meant job-jobs not part time temporary work. Out of 288k “jobs” last report, only 13,500 were actual really real jobs in the like reality world.

dude

dogsoldier on July 30, 2014 at 12:17 PM

You’re being silly and I have no contempt for Del’s efforts/success/struggles with his business.
My point is that the obsessive animus towards Obama fueled by the right becomes truly irrational when news of 218k jobs added is met with derision…and the now cliched contempt for Obama.
I have no illusions about where the GOP’s allegiances primarily lie – and for all their platitudes, it’s not with guys trying to run a small business.
You think it is. Fine. I’ve never witnessed anything more than election timed lip service. When it comes to policy and legislation. They have no issue with redistribution, as long as it’s ‘up’. And then Del etc. will benefit from what trickles down? ‘Trickle’. I’m not delusional – I don’t see Obama or the Dems as the holy grail and wise elders I’m accused of. But given the choice, I’m with the guys who don’t think governing is a horrible thing. They’ve warped the idea of ‘limited government’ into ‘no government’. And my thinking that puts me far closer to the center than the ‘progressive fascist’ I get called.

But anyway…how’s your summer going?

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

Where to start on this one…

I have do delusions about the GOP. At least the GOP has a faction (not a controlling faction) that is for limited government and a free market.

But you still have delusions about the Democrats. They also redistribute things up. Most of the money spent by government doesn’t actually get to the people it’s supposedly helping – it goes to bureaucrats and cronies.

And while you yet again try to position yourself as some just left-of-center person you’ve tipped your hand. Warped the idea of limited government to no government? This is the standard canard whipped out by far lefties whenever increases in government power and spending slows down – nevermind stays static or even actually shrinks. We’re always supposedly on the brink of small government that’s barely holding civilization together and in danger of sliding into no government – meanwhile regulation and spending and government power continues to grow. 20 years ago Bill Clinton was hailed as a great savior but if we returned to the regulatory regime and spending of that era (which was a long way away from limited government as well) you’d become hysterical about “no government”.

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 12:17 PM

Come on you idiots – progressive policies don’t have an affect on the economy!

Nevermind they promise to make businesses and the “rich” pay their “fair share” and to redistribute wealth.

Nevermind the scrambling of businesses to get waivers from ObamaCare.

Nothing to see here.

gwelf on July 30, 2014 at 12:19 PM

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:07 PM

Probably just in time for it to crash around the ears of the next Republican president.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 12:20 PM

James Pethokoukis has a very interesting post on the AEI website this morning that offers a sober look at the economics – and that the shale revolution that is booming is not the answer given the depths and breadth of the problems in our national economy….

Sorry, the shale revolution won’t save the US economy

Even with an unexpectedly strong second-quarter GDP report, the current economic recovery is the weakest since World War II. Even worse, many long-term forecasts — including those from the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve, and White House — see future growth far slower than the postwar average. But the economy would be even weaker, and those forecasts gloomier, if not for the shale revolution.

My bottom line is that America’s myriad economic woes will likely not be solved by the shale revolution. This is counter to what I hear from a lot of folks on the right these days. Too many view fracking as a silver bullet solution that will crank up GDP and create kajillions of high-wage jobs. No more New Normal. America can become North Dakota! Actually, it can’t. The Goldman analysis is a needed cautionary note and reality check that while the shale revolution is a wonderful economic tailwind, it probably isn’t a jetstream. Policymakers should make reasonable assumption about economic impacts and not ignore all the other things — from education reform to deregulation — necessary to create a thriving middle class.

Substantially lost within the debate over economic results and direction are the hammer blows the current economic policies are placing on the middle class.

Thanks largely to Obamacare, full-time jobs are being replaced by part-time jobs of less than 30 hours per week. Real income levels are stagnating. We have record numbers of people on the government dole and will achieve a $20T national debt by the time Obama leaves office. Nearly half of all working Americans pay no income taxes. The labor participation rate is at a level not seen since 1936 – during the Depression.

We should be adding 300K-400K jobs a month, and are being told to celebrate when we (barely) cover break-even / population growth.

Not even an energy boom, largely opposed by the Administration in their drive to combat ‘climate change’ can fix what’s fundamentally broken in this economy….and it’s fundamentally broken largely because of the policies of this Administration to pick winners / losers and control the marketplace to ensure ‘fairness’ and ‘social justice’.

Athos on July 30, 2014 at 12:21 PM

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:07 PM

Probably just in time for it to crash around the ears of the next Republican president.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 12:20 PM

Will there be a next Republican President?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:23 PM

Say Boinking whats:

https://twitter.com/markknoller

Obama 2014 economic proposals
4m
Citing 4% GDP report for 2nd-quarter, President Obama says it shows his economic policies ‘are starting to pay off’ – @markknoller

canopfor on July 30, 2014 at 12:24 PM

This is a challenge for conservatives that say cutting taxes always stimulates the economy and raising taxes always hurts the economy. That may not be demonstrable from the Clinton growth and this new slow but steady growth. The economy grew after raising taxes somewhat on the high income earners. I guess you could argue it could have grown even more but I think something different is at play that was not in the 1980s. The members of the knowledge class are making tons of money in tech and simultaneously energy production employees are doing very well, so you don’t miss the 3-5 percent higher tax rate as much.

timoric on July 30, 2014 at 10:13 AM

Nonsense.

This is a challenge for fiscalists/keynesians that predicted fiscal austerity would doom the economy. Monetarists always claimed that monetary offset would work and the economy would do just fine in spite of the sequester.

This is a huge defeat for Keynesians and for the kooks in the right obsessed with inflation.

The US Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance declined from -6.9% in 2010 (when the GOP took over the House) to -1.9% this year. The CAPB is the best metric of fiscal stance and the US is far more fiscally healthy now that 4 years ago.

The US total government expenditure as a percentage of the GDP declined from from 42.8 to 38.3 in the same period – some

The US have been doing A LOT more fiscal austerity than Europe, against the will of Obama and the Democrats, and, guess what, the economy is finally improving.

This is a huge victory for the GOP caucus in the house. Now, if “movement conservatives” are economically illiterate (most people here can’t figure out the difference between flow and stock variables and are convinced that the only expenditure cuts that and will commit the same mistake of the late 90s – when they allowed Clinton to take credit for the results of the Gingrich’ House policies that the same Clinton had bitterly fought back for as long as he could – instead of taking a victory lap and congratulate Bohenner and the rest of the GOP caucus, that’s another issue.

In the economics blogosphere/academia, the interpretations of what’s going on are quite different, especially when considering what’s happening in the Eurozone, Japan and the UK. Friedman was always right – expansionary fiscal policy is immaterial except for debt stabilization, it’s all about the monetary offset to smooth the cycle.

joana on July 30, 2014 at 12:24 PM

Citing 4% GDP report for 2nd-quarter, President Obama says it shows his economic policies ‘are starting to pay off’ – @markknoller

canopfor on July 30, 2014 at 12:24 PM

So, Obama has become a sequester believer?

joana on July 30, 2014 at 12:25 PM

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:54 AM

See my comments earlier about the revisions. Many people here repeat the myth that these numbers are always or usually revised downwards, which is not true (and in fact it’s slightly in the opposite direction). This is true for jobs numbers as well. The numbers are revised upwards about as often (or more) as they are revised downwards.

tneloms on July 30, 2014 at 12:26 PM

Citing 4% GDP report for 2nd-quarter, President Obama says it shows his economic policies ‘are starting to pay off’ – @markknoller

What an oaf is chief.

Schadenfreude on July 30, 2014 at 12:29 PM

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:23 PM

I think so but it isn’t the saving grace I thought it once might be.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2014 at 12:37 PM

Q2 GDP 4% so the unemployed feel better about 5 million more unskilled, cheap labor competition is no big deal. The economy is growing!!!

Actual Q2 GDP 1.2% revised after no one is paying attention. They’re still unemployed, but their kids are going to school with a 37 yo Honduran and Hunter has lice and a bad cough.

AllahsNippleHair on July 30, 2014 at 12:44 PM

Republican lawsuit against President Obama 2014
10m

President Obama on Congress: ‘The main vote that they have scheduled for today is whether or not … to sue me for doing my job’ – @mmurraypolitics

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics

canopfor on July 30, 2014 at 12:44 PM

Q2 GDP downgrade in 3…2…1

College Prof on July 30, 2014 at 12:47 PM

Citing 4% GDP report for 2nd-quarter, President Obama says it shows his economic policies ‘are starting to pay off’ – @markknoller

canopfor on July 30, 2014 at 12:24 PM

So, Obama has become a sequester believer?

joana on July 30, 2014 at 12:25 PM

?
It was Obama’s idea at the start.

AllahsNippleHair on July 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM

The numbers are revised upwards about as often (or more) as they are revised downwards.

tneloms on July 30, 2014 at 12:26 PM

How many times have they been revised between January 2009 and now, compared to how many times they were revised under previous administrations?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM

How many times have they been revised between January 2009 and now, compared to how many times they were revised under previous administrations?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM

Each estimate is always revised 2 times (there’s the advanced estimate, which we got today, then a revision the next month, then a final number in the 3rd month before moving on to the next quarter). Check out the spreadsheet, which goes back to 2002: http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/GDP-GDI%20vintage%20history.xls.

There are also occasional long-term retrospective revisions that go back many years based on methodological changes, and these happened in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2014.

tneloms on July 30, 2014 at 1:04 PM

It was Obama’s idea at the start.

AllahsNippleHair on July 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM

What, he’s flip-flopping again? I thought his last stance was that sequestration would have catastrophic consequences and that Congress owned it.

How many times have they been revised between January 2009 and now, compared to how many times they were revised under previous administrations?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM

These estimates have always been revised – the government doesn’t have definitive data when they put out the preliminary estimates and there’s always underlying data being revised.

joana on July 30, 2014 at 1:06 PM

How many times have they been revised between January 2009 and now, compared to how many times they were revised under previous administrations?

Del Dolemonte on July 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM

the same.

Gebeaux on July 30, 2014 at 1:13 PM

New York Times, July 31, front page:
“Economy Roars Ahead With 4% Quarterly Growth!”

New York TImes, August 30, page 26:
“Quarterly Growth Figure Corrected to 0.3%; President Blames ‘Do Nothing Congress’.”

orangemtl on July 30, 2014 at 1:14 PM

They’ve warped the idea of ‘limited government’ into ‘no government’.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

This is a stupid talking point. Nobody’s going to believe that conservatives don’t want a military or that conservatives don’t want potholes fixed.

Try something else.

corkie on July 30, 2014 at 1:14 PM

I’m sure you welcome 218k jobs (right?)

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM

All 218k are probably due to the oil boom. You must hate that fact.

corkie on July 30, 2014 at 1:16 PM

Pass the salt. Ever notice how the Obama Administration’s economic performance figures are always quietly revised about a month or two later? Usually on Friday afternoons? And always, ALWAYS, downwards?

Zumkopf on July 30, 2014 at 11:12 AM

This is not true.

airupthere on July 30, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Well, there you have it. The government and Liberals online have told you that you’re doing way better than you were six years ago, so therefore you must be-even if you aren’t!

And the choco ration has gone up four grams this quarter!

LMAO. What a joke.

A new pastime of mine for several years now is to find sites with comment sections about companies laying off people, shutting down stores, losing money and so on.

If the article is about some retailer struggling, the LSM reporter will blame Wal-Mart. And then we find Wal-Mart is having problems so they blame Amazon and dollar stores (and even Dollar General is closing down 370 stores-and indeed, Wal-Mart is going to open their own versions-because many people can no longer afford their prices). And then we come to find out Amazon is having problems.

But what interests me are the comments out there. Most point out that millions of Americans no longer have jobs, or lost the good paying jobs they once had. Millions of Americans simply can’t afford to buy stuff like they did a few years ago.

It’s as if the LSM writer reads those comments, think for a moment, scratch their heads and then wave their hand saying, “Naw, that has nothing to do with it.”

Blue Horseshoe luuuuuvs layoffs. Blue Horseshoe luuuuvs price increases.

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 30, 2014 at 1:23 PM

Real Unemployment Rate Is at Least 18 Percent

Adding in discouraged adults who say they would begin looking for work if conditions were better, those working part-time but say they want full time work, and the effects of immigration, the unemployment rate becomes about 15 percent—and that is a lower bound estimate.

Many young people are being duped both by unscrupulous for profit, post-secondary institutions—as well as accredited colleges and universities with low admission standards—to enroll in useless programs. They would likely be in the labor force now but for easy access to federally sponsored loans and will end up heavily in debt.

Adding in these students, the real unemployment rate among U.S. citizens and permanent residents is at least 18 percent.

INC on July 30, 2014 at 1:38 PM

GDP Revisions Detail Weak Economy

A bigger concern, then, is the more than a decade of revisions to GDP also released on Wednesday. Commerce reported that between the end of 2010 and the first three months of 2014, the economy grew by just 1.8%, which the Wall Street Journal noted was an historic post-war low. For the past two years, real GDP growth was revised down to 2.0% growth, from earlier estimates of 2.2% growth.

Overall, as data eventually becomes more complete, most economic indices have been revised downward. In other words, whatever our snapshot estimate of growth is at any time, it is generally actually lower than reported.

INC on July 30, 2014 at 1:41 PM

Shock U.S. Senate Report: Left-Wing ‘Billionaire’s Club’ Using Environmentalism to Control the US Economy and Subvert Democracy

…the millionaires and billionaires doing the damage are Obama’s allies on the liberal-left, not his enemies on the right. So says a devastating report published today by the US Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works.

The report details how an elite group of rich liberal donors such as Tom Steyer and Hank Paulson – “the Billionaire’s Club” – is directing and controlling the far-left environmental movement, “which in turn lobbies and controls major policy decisions and lobbies on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).”

I can’t find it in the column, but the link URL states it’s a Senate Minority Report (yeah, I didn’t think the Dems would let this cat out of the bag).

The scale of the conspiracy “by a small group of powerful and active millionaires and billionaires who exert tremendous sway over a colossal effort” is so vast, the report admits, that it has barely been able to scratch the surface.

“It would be virtually impossible to examine this system completely given the enormity of this carefully coordinated effort and the lack of transparency surrounding it.”

…These labyrinthine arrangements serve at least three functions. First, they enable left-wing donors to give large sums of money to aggressively political causes in the guise of disinterested, non-partisan, and tax-deductible charitable donations; second, they mask the vast scale of the sums being pumped into hard-left environmental activist causes; third, they help maintain the illusion that the numerous and secretly well co-ordinated NGOs which use green issues to agitate for more state intervention and regulation are in fact innocent, mom-and-pop grass roots organisations with widespread popular support.

And this is no shocker:

What the report also suggests is that this scheme has the full blessing of the Obama administration, which is using the Environmental Protection Agency – heavily in league with these left-wing donors and hard-left green NGOs – to bypass the democratic process and railroad through unpopular legislation.

INC on July 30, 2014 at 1:53 PM

Have you considered that you’re biz not doing well might be for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama…or the Dems…or the Left…or illegal immigrants…or Obama…?
Thinking past all that might shift your focus towards factors that could improve your business.
Remember…you built it.
Right?
Sincerely wishing you the best with turning things around.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:10 AM

How typically insulting of the progressive mentality, that none of their tax or regulation impositions could have any impact on the success of anyone.

Ricard on July 30, 2014 at 1:59 PM

They’ve warped the idea of ‘limited government’ into ‘no government’.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

This goes to the root of progressive dysfunction, the inability to articulate the position of the opposition. The first virtue a progressive must dispense with is ‘honesty.’

Ricard on July 30, 2014 at 2:02 PM

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency

So how much will it be reduced DOWNWARD when they get ‘complete data’?

GarandFan on July 30, 2014 at 2:28 PM

All 218k are probably due to the oil boom. You must hate that fact.

corkie on July 30, 2014 at 1:16 PM

Nah, what will happen is 10k of those will be real jobs and the rest will be temporary part time work. Those are not job-jobs.

dogsoldier on July 30, 2014 at 2:29 PM

Nice to know I’m not the only one who thinks Morrissey jumped the shark on this report. Expect the data to be revised next week. You’d think Morrissey would have learned by now, but I guess his gullibility knows no bounds. Sucker.

earlgrey on July 30, 2014 at 3:15 PM

They’ve warped the idea of ‘limited government’ into ‘no government’.

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

You that by lying you prove that you have no valid point to make, and that you *know* you’ve got nothing, right?

Midas on July 30, 2014 at 3:16 PM

verbaluce on July 30, 2014 at 11:53 AM

An you don’t even understand our position. And you ignore that the redistribution under Obama has been nothing but “up”.

No wonder you get things wrong every time.

Buck Farky on July 30, 2014 at 3:20 PM

So it seems there are some here that actually fell for Obama’s you didn’t build it. It wasn’t the government, it was our taxes that built the roads, ect. If it wasn’t for business prosperity over the last odd 100 years there would be no tax base for roads, ect…

WTF doesn’t the left get about math?

As for these numbers, the only one’s doing well are Wall Street hucksters, er, brokers.

Faramir on July 30, 2014 at 5:04 PM

i’m just sadly cynical and believe that the stock market bubble will burst BEFORE my stock options become exercisable. damn. that would have been nice.

WaldoTJ on July 30, 2014 at 5:25 PM

And pigs can fly.

COgirl on July 30, 2014 at 6:12 PM

Overall, as data eventually becomes more complete, most economic indices have been revised downward. In other words, whatever our snapshot estimate of growth is at any time, it is generally actually lower than reported.

INC on July 30, 2014 at 1:41 PM

Doesn’t matter for the time being-the Dems got their positive headlines while voters are starting to think more about the upcoming elections. Any down revisions later on will be, for all practical purposes, buried by the LSM.

And the Libs got to crow about how great Obama is and how much the “Repugnicans” suck, and how much better the economy would be if the Obstructionist Party would get out of the Smartest President Evah…not just here, but also over at the NY Times comment section.

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 30, 2014 at 7:03 PM

“out of the way of” whoops

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 30, 2014 at 7:04 PM

Boooo US economy BOOOOOOOO!!!!!

BOOOOOOO!!!

STOP DOING GOOD YOU STUPID ECONOMY I HATE YOU!!!!

everdiso on July 30, 2014 at 11:54 PM

Rebound: Q2 GDP hits 4%

Soon to be “revised downward” late on a Friday when nobody’s looking….

landlines on July 31, 2014 at 12:26 AM

Recent real recoveries have seen quarterly growth at 4% or higher for several quarters – with real job growth in a bigger labor force.

There are many reasons businesses build up or sell down inventories and anticipating future sales is only one of them. Some also try to lock in prices they suspect will rise, or use some cash on hand.

And there are plenty of indicators that things aren’t so cheery. But watch the Obamabots – including his pets at AP – celebrate a whole one quarter in a row of good numbers. Didn’t we have a good one in 2013, too, and also one in 2012?

Adjoran on July 31, 2014 at 2:23 AM

THE GDP report is a sham, most of the ‘growth’ is in commodity prices and inventory that was NOT sold during the quarter. Once this adjustment is made, the number will be closer to 1%.
Overall economic growth, as measured by GDP, is a reflection of SPENDING, not INCOME. With current debt level at depression era highs of 300% of GDP, our current income measurement is not reflective of true economic output.
If it’s any consolation, China, the EU and Japan are worse.

oarmas on July 31, 2014 at 12:11 PM

A few very good / interesting links from Zerohedge.com regarding the economy and cooking the books….

The American Middle Class is 20% Poorer than it was in 1984

Chicago PMI Collapses to 13 Month Low – Biggest Miss on Record

The REAL State of the US Economy

3 Charts – Something Doesn’t Add Up

Athos on July 31, 2014 at 12:40 PM

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