CNN poll: Hillary doing better with white voters than any Democrat since Jimmy Carter

posted at 6:01 pm on July 28, 2014 by Allahpundit

Good catch by Dave Weigel from this weekend’s “Romney defeats Obama!” CNN troll poll. One of the mysteries of Election 2016 is whether the Democratic nominee can keep the “Obama coalition” of liberals, young adults, and minorities together. After all, it’s a fact of political life that the Republican nominee will crush the Democrat among white voters.

Or is it?

Obama, who won only 39 percent of the white vote in 2012, is swooning because he’s lost even more of it. But Clinton’s grabbing 46 percent of the white vote. That’s better than Obama did in 2008 (43 percent), better than John Kerry did in 2004 (41 percent), better than Al Gore did in 2000 (42 percent). It’s even better than her husband did in 1996 (43 percent), though that result—like the 1992 result—is skewed by the presence of Ross Perot. You have to go back to 1976 to find a Democrat who polled better than 46 percent with whites. And when Jimmy Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford, the electorate was 89 percent white overall. In 2016 it’s likely to be closer to 70 percent white. In 2016 a Democrat who wins only 40 percent of the white vote and holds close to Barack Obama’s totals with nonwhites can win easily.

Special bonus reason for Democratic gloating: In the theoretical Romney race, Clinton wins 62 percent of voters who make less than $50,000. Yes, even after the scandal of her speaking fees.

Democrats are in the same position vis-a-vis whites that Republicans are vis-a-vis minorities, especially Latinos. You don’t need to win the group outright to win the election; all you need to do is lose less badly than you’ve been losing. (That’s surely Rand Paul’s strategy in reaching out to black voters. Losing 75/25 would be a major achievement.) If Hillary pulls 46 percent of whites, the GOP would need to find a ton of non-white votes to make up the difference. Which, of course, is why liberals will suck it up and go along with nominating her despite their doubts: Someone who can leverage the Bill Clinton brand to reach working-class whites and her own narrative as the first woman nominee to reach white women is a no-brainer.

One obvious counterpoint to the CNN data is that she won’t be facing Romney but a (hopefully!) superior candidate, which makes the numbers even less useful than other 2016 polls at this stage. Another counterpoint is that some people here may be choosing Hillary the Idea, not Hillary the Candidate. For instance, here’s how she does head to head with Romney among different age groups:

age

See that 63 percent figure among young voters, one of O’s core constituencies? That’s 11 points better than Obama does right now head to head with Mitt. She also outperforms O by double digits among the next two older age groups; among the “under 50″ crowd, he loses to Romney 50/47 while she crushes him 60/37. Similar story among ideological groups:

conserv

She does 12 points better than Obama among liberals, moderates, and conservatives. (She’s 14 points better among independents.) Maybe all of this is simply overlap from white voters: If she’s winning more whites than O, obviously she’s also winning more white young adults, white conservatives, etc. But maybe it’s also, if only in part, a function of voters viewing Hillary right now as Not Obama, a Democratic replacement who can be idealized while The One flounders in office. If you look back to Weigel’s data, you’ll find that while it’s true that Hillary does considerably better than O among whites, she’s also 10 points better among nonwhites: 77 percent prefer her to Romney versus just 67 percent who prefer Obama to Mitt. Clearly, disaffection with Hopenchange is driving some of her support as an alternative. What happens as Obama fades into the background and she starts being judged as a candidate in her own right? Or is that, maybe, the deeper significance of this data — despite repeated bumbling during her campaign preview/”book tour” last month, her numbers still look strong?

Exit question: Is the white/non-white metric the key number in the next election? Or is it something else? Hint: It’s not a coincidence that Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan are all focused on ways to help blue-collar voters.


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Other than a social-justice appointment to Secretary of State as a consolation prize for losing a bid for president (same as Kerry) and enabling a misogynistic husband who did become president, what exactly has she ever done again?

rogerb on July 28, 2014 at 6:04 PM

So she’s racist. Hmmmm.

CW on July 28, 2014 at 6:05 PM

A couple of commercials with her cackling will have many whites rethinking their position.

Judge_Dredd on July 28, 2014 at 6:06 PM

Early speculation is early.

Xanatos90 on July 28, 2014 at 6:07 PM

If 46% of whites go for any Democrat in 2016, this country deserves its inevitable ugly fate. Hillary or any other Dem should barely get 46% of the entire electorate after 8 years of Obama.

Doughboy on July 28, 2014 at 6:07 PM

Hillary: Hamas Hides Their Rockets In Civilian Areas Because Gaza Is So Small…

Via Breitbart:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Fusion TV’s Jorge Ramos that part of the reason Hamas hides rockets in schools and civilian areas is “Gaza is small.”

“I’m not a military planner but Hamas puts its missiles, its rockets in civilian areas, part of it is Gaza is pretty small and its densely populated,” she said as neglecting the question of whether or not Hamas should have rockets in area to begin with.

Video here…

Leftists, always making excuses for those that would kill them.

Resist We Much on July 28, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Leftists, always making excuses for those that would kill them.

Resist We Much on July 28, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Appeasement always works. /Chamberlin

nobar on July 28, 2014 at 6:11 PM

Another reason not to live amongst ‘white’ people

DarkCurrent on July 28, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Many Americans are not too bright.

albill on July 28, 2014 at 6:15 PM

If this country should not be led by “old, angry white men”, why should anyone vote for an old, angry white woman?

Cody1991 on July 28, 2014 at 6:15 PM

If Hillary gets the nomination, we want to make 100% sure that the amnesty / immigration issue is alive and well, because the anti-amnesty sentiment is driving up the GOP white vote, and will work wonders against Hillary!

Now, we also need to completely purge the amnesty shills like Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN) from the GOP. Lamar, who voted for Rubio’s bill, has his primary on Aug 7th against Joe Carr. Carr has this week got the endorsement of Sarah Palin, and has Laura Ingraham actively campaigning for him.

Note, the latest developments in the amnesty shill Lamar Alexander’s primary:

** Mike Huckabee Fans Revolt After He Endorses Lamar Alexander

** Joe Carr: ‘Grassroots Has Absolutely Caught Fire’ against Lamar Alexander

anotherJoe on July 28, 2014 at 6:16 PM

Other than a social-justice appointment to Secretary of State as a consolation prize for losing a bid for president (same as Kerry) and enabling a misogynistic husband who did become president, what exactly has she ever done again?

rogerb on July 28, 2014 at 6:04 PM

Not been Obama.

vlad martel on July 28, 2014 at 6:16 PM

If she gets the dem nomination it won’t even be a contest.

We better hope another democrat takes her out or the election will be over at 7:30PM on election night.

weedisgood on July 28, 2014 at 6:16 PM

I ain’t in no ways taahhd..

bernzright777 on July 28, 2014 at 6:18 PM

If this country should not be led by “old, angry white men”, why should anyone vote for an old, angry white woman?

Cody1991 on July 28, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Who is only in this position because of an old white man.

CW on July 28, 2014 at 6:19 PM

That’s pretty white of you.

Oil Can on July 28, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Hillary wins, and I’m officially quitting politics.

Somebody bookmark this so when happens they can remind me.

portlandon on July 28, 2014 at 6:21 PM

Another reason not to live amongst ‘white’ people

DarkCurrent on July 28, 2014 at 6:15 PM

What abt pinks?

If she gets the dem nomination it won’t even be a contest.

We better hope another democrat takes her out or the election will be over at 7:30PM on election night.

weedisgood on July 28, 2014 at 6:16 PM

Lay off the weed pothead. It appears to be rotting what’s left of your brain.

Judge_Dredd on July 28, 2014 at 6:23 PM

Impeachment would make Joe Biden the incumbent President running for reelection in 2016. Checkmate Hillary.

meci on July 28, 2014 at 6:25 PM

Hillary wins, and I’m officially quitting politics.

portlandon on July 28, 2014 at 6:21 PM

If Hillary wins, I’ll be swimming across the southern border taking my chances in Mexico or he//holes further south.

Cody1991 on July 28, 2014 at 6:26 PM

Hillary gets glowing coverage in the media.

Her reputation for “competence” is as big a fairytale as Obama’s candidacy.

It’s all just a media-created fairytale, and most people are happy to swallow it whole.

bluegill on July 28, 2014 at 6:26 PM

who cares about hillary’s supporters amongst whites, blacks, hispanics, etc? after all, arent they all just huma beings?

ThisIsYourBrainOnKoch on July 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

The concentration on Hillary! in advance of a campaign ignores her complete inability to run an effective national campaign. She’s going to get hammered if she runs. Even Mitt could win that one.

MTF on July 28, 2014 at 6:29 PM

In 2016 it’s likely to be closer to 70 percent white. In 2016 a Democrat who wins only 40 percent of the white vote and holds close to Barack Obama’s totals with nonwhites can win easily.

Um, as the total % of all voters drops for whites – you need MORE of a % in 2016 to “easily win”, not less.

These 2+ year out polls are f-ing useless. Say – what was Bill Clinton’s poll numbers in 1990???

Odie1941 on July 28, 2014 at 6:29 PM

Who is only in this position because of an old white man.

CW on July 28, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Yes, Hill has clung, climbed, clawed and enabled her way into every position she has had – a complete hypocrite.

As a woman I have nothing but disdain and contempt for her.

Cody1991 on July 28, 2014 at 6:29 PM

WaPo: Darth Vader is polling higher than all potential 2016 presidential candidates

tetriskid on July 28, 2014 at 6:03 PM

Couldn’t be any worse than Killery …

Mark Boabaca on July 28, 2014 at 6:33 PM

You will pardon my skepticism.

This is CNN, after all.

formwiz on July 28, 2014 at 6:33 PM

Leftists, always making excuses for those that would kill them.

Resist We Much on July 28, 2014 at 6:08 PM

It’s morally superior to hand whomever wants to stab you in the back the sharpest knife. That’s one of their rules for other people to follow.

V7_Sport on July 28, 2014 at 6:33 PM

‘We just think people will be too focused on saving money and they won’t get the care for their children and themselves that they need. We think the government…will make better decisions than the people will make, and people will be healthier because of it.…We just can’t trust the American people to make [healthcare related] choices…Government has to make those choices for people.’

- Hillary Clinton, explaining why she opposed health savings accounts, 15 June 1993

You are too stupid to know how to spend your money.

‘We can’t afford to have that money go to the private sector. The money has to go to the federal government because the federal government will spend that money better than the private sector will spend it.’

– First Lady Hillary Clinton on Social Security

‘Cuz, like, um, ya know, central planning is always a better allocator of resources than people and the market.

‘The unfettered free market has been the most radically destructive force in American life in the last generation.’

– First Lady Hillary Clinton on C-Span in 1996 stating her troubles
with the free market

There hasn’t been an ‘unfettered’ free market in America in more than a century.

‘Other developed countries…are more committed to social stability than we have been, and they tailor their economic policies to maintain it.’

– First Lady Hillary Clinton writes her affinity for Europe’s
cradle-to-grave welfare policies

And, how’s that working out for Europe?


‘Too many people have made too much money.’

– First Lady Hillary Clinton condemns the insurance industry, feeling it’s not fair that certain businesses are making ‘too much money’

But, not the ‘dead broke’ Clintons, ‘natch.

“There’s a different leader in Syria now. Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer.”

- Hillary Clinton, CBS’s “Face the Nation”, 27 March 2011

‘Reformer’ and ‘Genocidal Maniac” are interchangeable or something. /

Resist We Much on July 28, 2014 at 6:33 PM

Try again, iPad …

WaPo: Darth Vader is polling higher than all potential 2016 presidential candidates

tetriskid on July 28, 2014 at 6:03 PM

Couldn’t be any worse than Killery …

Mark Boabaca on July 28, 2014 at 6:34 PM

So the same IDIOTS who voted for Obama would now vote for Hillary!

Color me not surprised.

You can’t fix STUPID!

GarandFan on July 28, 2014 at 6:34 PM

WaPo: Darth Vader is polling higher than all potential 2016 presidential candidates

tetriskid on July 28, 2014 at 6:03 PM

Maybe because he is black?

CableDude on July 28, 2014 at 6:36 PM

who cares about hillary’s supporters amongst whites, blacks, hispanics, etc? after all, arent they all just huma beings?

ThisIsYourBrainOnKoch on July 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

Sorry, dude — being “colorblind” is racist.

vlad martel on July 28, 2014 at 6:36 PM

Hillary doing better with white voters than any Democrat since Jimmy Carter

Huh? This headline is idiotic.

You have to go back to 1976 to find a Democrat who polled better than 46 percent with whites. And when Jimmy Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford, the electorate was 89 percent white overall.

In 1976 Jimmy Carter was a presidential nominee / president elect. How does it make any sense to compare Killary’s “popularity” in 2014, when she is nothing but a private citizen, with Jimmy Carter’s popularity in 1976?

Good catch by Dave Weigel

No, it’s not.

Pork-Chop on July 28, 2014 at 6:37 PM

Hillary will not run.

Without the obamas she can’t win.

They will not support her.

The D-rats can’t have two mafioso capos. One must go and the obama’s will finish her off. Bill doesn’t want her to win anyway.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2014 at 6:39 PM

If Hillary wins, I’ll be swimming across the southern border taking my chances in Mexico or he//holes further south.

Cody1991 on July 28, 2014 at 6:26 PM

Might as well, it’ll be empty.

darwin on July 28, 2014 at 6:41 PM

Clinton has way too much political baggage and people will tire of hearing her whine sexist! at every fact unleashed by the opposition.

An ad of her accomplishments could be a blank screen for 20 seconds.

darwin on July 28, 2014 at 6:44 PM

arent they all just huma beings?

ThisIsYourBrainOnKoch on July 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

Nice touch KochForBrains.

Judge_Dredd on July 28, 2014 at 6:46 PM

I don’t understand how people can keep falling for this flim flam. Clinton, Hagen, Sestak, Landrieu, Grimes etc are all the same as Obama. They can fire guns, serve in the military, do a shot of liquor in Scranton, but they are all progressive creeps who will vote the wrong way on every important issue.

forest on July 28, 2014 at 6:48 PM

What is so hard to understand about the fact that the demographics in the US make it impossible for a Republican to win the White House?

Older, Conservative voters are dying off, and younger liberal ones are taking their place. The influx of hispanics adds to the misery.

NE liberals have moved to FL at a high rate, turning the Red state into a purple one, at best.

Liberals have moved out of MD and into VA, making that state now close to solid Blue.

When NC is no longer a safe GOP state, it’s all over. Just look at Hagen seemingly about to hold on to her Senate seat.

There is nothing that can be done at this point.

mypalfish on July 28, 2014 at 7:01 PM

arent they all just huma beings?

ThisIsYourBrainOnKoch on July 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

You mean “huma” as in Huma Abedin, the Muslim Brotherhood-connected former Hillary aide?

TarheelBen on July 28, 2014 at 7:02 PM

“And maybe that works for a day, or a week, or even a month. But eventually you’re right back to the self-destructive ways again. And time and time again, recurrence after recurrence, you wonder why you can’t learn. Why you can’t just quit the sauce. And you tremble at the thought of what it will take to get you to wise up.

My name is Sam, and I’m a liberaloholic.”
http://angrywhitedude.com/2014/07/my-name-is-sam/

MMK on July 28, 2014 at 7:12 PM

You mean “huma” as in Huma Abedin, the Muslim Brotherhood-connected former Hillary aide?

TarheelBen on July 28, 2014 at 7:02 PM

“Aide” … with “benefits” …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iofcatb8BVI

Pork-Chop on July 28, 2014 at 7:16 PM

Hillary’s new campaign slogan: white makes right!

2lbsTest on July 28, 2014 at 7:19 PM

I hope not – she would be a disaster. So much for the ’60′s revolution. The first minority (1/2 minority president) is awful as would the first female president.

MN J on July 28, 2014 at 7:22 PM

*repeatedly slams head against the table*

God help us.

Jack_Burton on July 28, 2014 at 7:22 PM

who cares about hillary’s supporters amongst whites, blacks, hispanics, etc? after all, arent they all just huma beings?

ThisIsYourBrainOnKoch on July 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

Trying to normalize Hillary’s lesbianism?

This isn’t the first time that you’ve misspelled “human”.

nobar on July 28, 2014 at 7:24 PM

I swear, when grumpy old men call up my local right wing talk show, they say Hillary is really conservative, and the guy doesn’t even blink.

I think the caller, and the talk radio guy are mixing, what they call testicles, with conservatism. Hillary is as liberal as they come. Start saying so.

Stop identifying conservatism as male, and lack of feminity. Sarah Palin was feminine.

Stop defining conservatism as having a loud husky voice. I am not loud, but I am conservative, and I don’t have a husky voice.

Hillary is buying into the white male voters with her brand of populism. It is a sham. Like talking about how poor she is. Pretty soon she is going to start blaming Benghazi on Obama.

Every day its some new lunatic thing I have to read about Hillary. She hasn’t changed since “Pretty in Pink” and “I can’t Recall,” why I have these files from the FBI here, and I am reading them.

Fleuries on July 28, 2014 at 7:54 PM

Sir Hitlery does not belong in the white house, I don’t care if you smear lipstick all over it and stick pasties all over it head to toe. You still can’t make this murdering pig look like a human that gives a shit about anything but herself.

In that respect, she’s obama in drag.

Diluculo on July 28, 2014 at 8:04 PM

If cankles wins in 2016, I am moving on up to Canada. Ah, hockey pucks!

woodhull on July 28, 2014 at 8:32 PM

Maybe she’ll have a fatal aneurysm. :)

S. D. on July 28, 2014 at 8:47 PM

Landslide coming, right Allah?

cdog0613 on July 28, 2014 at 9:21 PM

Breathlessly waiting for DedPepper to check in on this grave subject.

Del Dolemonte on July 28, 2014 at 10:12 PM

Those sampling errors are horrendous. Seriously? +/- 7.0%??

Newtie and the Beauty on July 28, 2014 at 10:17 PM

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.

- HL Mencken

307wolverine on July 28, 2014 at 10:17 PM

Sir Hitlery does not belong in the white house, I don’t care if you smear lipstick all over it and stick pasties all over it head to toe. You still can’t make this murdering pig look like a human that gives a shit about anything but herself.

In that respect, she’s obama in drag.

Diluculo on July 28, 2014 at 8:04 PM

Want to know what a cow looks like washed and blow dried? — http://imgur.com/Eadc93P

slickwillie2001 on July 28, 2014 at 10:19 PM

Tell me a Lie long enough and I will believe it too.

This is what “they” want . . . The Establishment. The Media . . and what you will want if you listen to them long enough.

Don’t Look, Don’t Listen . . . and we just might survive.

Nat George on July 28, 2014 at 10:42 PM

If she runs, she wins.

This is how pathetic the American voting public has become.

Ted the Average on July 29, 2014 at 6:00 AM

Good Lord! Another frustrated, passive-aggressive, old witch with a junta of flying monkeys.
Isn’t one Nancy Pelosi is enough?

Cybergeezer on July 29, 2014 at 9:31 AM

How can anyone stomach that horrible evil woman? I don’t get it!

MCGIRV on July 29, 2014 at 1:30 PM

White people are stupid. Especially the female version.

Carnac on July 29, 2014 at 3:52 PM