CO: Cook Political Report downgrades Hickenlooper’s reelection chances

posted at 7:41 pm on July 18, 2014 by Mary Katharine Ham

Gov. John Hickenlooper is considered the more likely of the state’s two big Democratic incumbents to hold on to his seat in November but the landscape may be changing quickly. The Cook Political Report changed Hickenlooper’s race against former Rep. Bob Beauprez from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat today.

Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has watched his political fortunes rise and fall during his first term. A year ago, he might have been among the most vulnerable incumbents up for re-election after suffering losses on some of his biggest priorities. Then polling taken earlier this year indicated that his position had improved. It helped that Republicans had a crowded field of candidates….

…At this writing, polls indicate that Hickenlooper might have a race on his hands after all, particularly after botching an attempt to apologize to the state sheriffs’ association for signing several gun control measures.

Yet another data point in the quest to figure out this big purple prize. Noah described the polling as it stands earlier this week:

An NBC News/Marist poll… showed Hickenlooper beating Beauprez with 49 to 43 percent support. But these results were called into question on Wednesday by the release of a Quinnipiac University poll of the Colorado governor’s race.

That survey found Beauprez, a figure who has not held federal office since 2007, has remarkably low name recognition. 31 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the candidate while 25 percent said they viewed him negatively, but a staggering 43 percent said they had not heard enough about Beauprez to form an opinion. Even though voters know nothing about him, Quinnipiac’s survey reveals that they are prepared to give him a shot. The poll found Beauprez leading Hickenlooper with 44 to 43 percent.

Beauprez’s strength in this survey has everything to do with Hickenlooper’s weakness. The poll found Hickenlooper’s favorability rating collapsing from 51 percent in April to 43 percent today. 48 percent approve of the job he has done in office while 46 percent disapprove. 42 percent of respondents said Hickenlooper deserves reelection while 48 percent disagreed. Those results were reversed in April.

It is hard to square these results with NBC’s. The NBC/Marist poll found a comparable number of voters had no opinion or had never heard of Beauprez (38 percent), but it also found that Hickenlooper’s job approval rating is 19 points above water (54/35 percent). Similarly, NBC found voters in the Centennial state have a favorable impression of their governor (51/36 percent).

As Colorado Peak Politics puts is, “these numbers leave very little room for error. Unfortunately, Hickenlooper is terribly error prone.” Indeed. We’ve seen him in action before.

And, Guy Benson flagged the Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a two-point lead over Udall:

Gardner and Udall have each consolidated their respective bases, with independents cutting ever so slightly in favor of the Democratic incumbent. In most national polling, independents are leaning heavily toward the GOP this cycle, so Colorado appears to be anomalous. Notable is the fact that this poll is among registered, not likely, voters — so if nationwide trends hold up, November’s electorate could tilt further in Gardner’s favor. On the other hand, the Colorado Left’s operation has been ruthlessly effective at turning out voters in recent cycles. In 2012, RealClearPolitics‘ final polling average showed Barack Obama very narrowly leading Mitt Romney in the state; the president ended up carrying Colorado by a comfortable five-and-a-half points. The GOP hasn’t won a major statewide race there since 2004. All of which is to say that while this survey is no doubt welcome news to the Gardner campaign, there is much work to be done.

Colorado’s a tough nut to crack for Republicans, but they’re certainly well positioned for potential statewide success at this point in the cycle.


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Hopefully both the Governor and Udall are defeated in November.

cat_owner on July 18, 2014 at 7:45 PM

What cat owner said

bour3 on July 18, 2014 at 7:46 PM

Hopefully both the Governor and Udall are defeated in November.

cat_owner on July 18, 2014 at 7:45 PM

…they’ll get everybody high…when the polls open!
……….Free Weed!

JugEarsButtHurt on July 18, 2014 at 7:53 PM

Unless the republicans play by the fascist-democrat playbook we will lose Colorado. I would be satisfied if the GOP used the words of the fascist-democrats in ads. That would be devastating. However, they will play nice as the donks call them racists and rapists.

jukin3 on July 18, 2014 at 7:58 PM

Thank goodness Tancredo didn’t get the nomination. Not only would he have lost to Hickenlooper in the gubernatorial race, he would have hurt Gardner in his race too.

GOPRanknFile on July 18, 2014 at 7:59 PM

GOPRanknFile on July 18, 2014 at 7:59 PM

Yeah I think you are right about that. Gardner seems to be a good candidate. Udall is another leftist nutjob running as a ‘moderate” who won’t be seen with Dear Leader.

cat_owner on July 18, 2014 at 8:09 PM

Colorado’s a tough nut to crack for Republicans, but they’re certainly well positioned for potential statewide success at this point in the cycle.

pffffftttttttttttttttttt

look

all you gotta do, man

no, wait –

look,

it’s easy.

i forget how . . .

heh.

um.

what?

Axe on July 18, 2014 at 8:13 PM

In other circumstances, Gardner is as fine a candidate as they come but given the turn of events on the Southern border and Tancredo’s position on guns and illegal aliens, he could have produced an earthquake sized landslide for Republicans.

Rix on July 18, 2014 at 8:15 PM

Gun control, uncheck

Once for obama’care’, uncheck

Dopey state, uncheck

To Hades with him, check

Schadenfreude on July 18, 2014 at 8:16 PM

Cantorize all the traitors of the once Land of Laws, with zero exceptions. That’s you too, DIABLOs.

Schadenfreude on July 18, 2014 at 8:16 PM

At least one Udall MUST go!

Schadenfreude on July 18, 2014 at 8:17 PM

LOL- yeah sure… Polls shmolls……
These democrat aholes would vote for Assclown Barky Hussein again for a third term if they had the chance- since it’s not his fault Rs are obstructing his work to heal the planet and bring us rainbows and unicorns. And Bush.
.
Lucy and her football.

FlaMurph on July 18, 2014 at 8:25 PM

Oh yeah,
And by the way……the Republicans will take away your contraceptives and pot. So don’t vote for that Colorado, c’mon.

FlaMurph on July 18, 2014 at 8:28 PM

The Left will be too stoned to vote.

Tater Salad on July 18, 2014 at 8:42 PM

…they’ll get everybody high…when the polls open!
……….Free Weed!

JugEarsButtHurt on July 18, 2014 at 7:53 PM

OK, forgive the intrusion, but I have to ask:

Are you KOOLAID2?

Your posts remind me of his.

22044 on July 18, 2014 at 8:44 PM

CO fav color is now green. Unfort potheads will keep the state blue.

hillsoftx on July 18, 2014 at 8:45 PM

Governor Chickenpooper might lose?

Could. Not. Happen. To. A. Nicer. Guy.

What a putz!!!

patch on July 18, 2014 at 8:46 PM

The Left will be too stoned to vote.

Tater Salad on July 18, 2014 at 8:42 PM

Except for the fact that the pot legalization vote had a large support among conservatives here in Colorado.

But I won’t let that get in the way of your narrative.

Walter L. Newton on July 18, 2014 at 8:47 PM

Does Governor Hickenlooper support or oppose hosting young ILLEGAL Invaders in Colorado?

DENVER (AP) — The city of Denver is asking to house some immigrant children who have overwhelmed border facilities in recent months.

Denver Human Services has requested federal grant money to house some of the unaccompanied minors, KUSA-TV reported (http://on9news.tv/1yztMfb).

The city is applying for a grant to be used to convert its 54-bedresidential treatment facility, called the Family Crisis Center, into housing for immigrant kids.

http://www.chron.com/news/article/Denver-applies-to-shelter-immigrant-children-5629761.phphttp://www.chron.com/news/article/Denver-applies-to-shelter-immigrant-children-5629761.php

The ILLEGAL Invasion should be the key issue in every race (at the Federal, State and Local level) in November, since it shows which politicians are most likely to govern with the best interests of the American Citizens and legal residents in mind.

wren on July 18, 2014 at 9:13 PM

Dems are turning up the usual war on women stuff here. I figure that’s a sign of desperation. Time to get out my checkbook and support Beauprez and Gardner (again).

COgirl on July 18, 2014 at 9:34 PM

Except for the fact that the pot legalization vote had a large support among conservatives here in Colorado.

Walter L. Newton on July 18, 2014 at 8:47 PM

Indeed. Conservative rural ranching communities (mine is Gunnison) overwhelmingly voted for pot. Of course, the hippies up in Crested Butte led the charge, but ultimately this was purely an economic decision. I hope the Republican candidates recognize the futility of fighting a 21 century version of the gold rush.

bettycooper on July 18, 2014 at 9:50 PM

Walter L. Newton on July 18, 2014 at 8:47 PM
bettycooper on July 18, 2014 at 9:50 PM
And when the Mexican drug cartels move in…….

flackcatcher on July 18, 2014 at 10:11 PM

And when the Mexican drug cartels move in…….

flackcatcher on July 18, 2014 at 10:11 PM

Sorry, move in how exactly? Considering they were already here, and legalization is hurting their business. You know, kinda like how the 21st Amendment dealt a pretty severe blow to the rumrunners and their ilk.

But I guess busybodies gonna busybody.

Andy in Colorado on July 18, 2014 at 10:27 PM

After 2012, I trust no poll from anyone
Never again. Never.

whatabunchoflosers on July 18, 2014 at 10:44 PM

From the view up here in the high country Texas was beginning to look good.
Maybe after the elections…

partsnlabor on July 18, 2014 at 10:54 PM

Of a different kind

Schadenfreude on July 18, 2014 at 11:25 PM

Picture perfect.

That bar is owned by Hickenlooper.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2014 at 12:22 AM

Just Remind voters of their 2nd Amendment rights and who supports them.

jaydee_007 on July 19, 2014 at 4:05 AM

Lickenhooper? That popcorn dude?? Kitty Hawk?

Sherman1864 on July 19, 2014 at 10:41 AM

Gun control, uncheck

Once for obama’care’, uncheck

Dopey state, uncheck

To Hades with him, check

Schadenfreude on July 18, 2014 at 8:16 PM

You forgot one:

Indefinitely postponed the execution of Nathan Dunlap, the Chucky Cheese mass murderer who has been on death row for 20 years.

Meremortal on July 19, 2014 at 1:02 PM