Gallup: Approval for Supreme Court steady as GOP favor soars

posted at 4:41 pm on July 14, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The recent Supreme Court decision on Hobby Lobby has had an impact on the approval rating for the nation’s top judicial panel, but it’s not exactly what detractors of the decision predicted. Paralleling the Economist/YouGov poll last week, Gallup’s most recent poll shows that overall approval and disapproval has stayed nearly constant over the past year or more. The profound change has taken place in the composition of both segments:

Americans remain divided in their assessments of the U.S. Supreme Court, with 47% approving of the job it is doing, and 46% disapproving. These ratings are consistent with approval lastSeptember, when 46% approved and 45% disapproved, and rank among the lowest approval ratings for the court in Gallup’s 14-year trend.

That’s true, but most of that took place between 2009 and 2012. The overall ratings since the first ObamaCare decision have been 49/40, 46/45, and 47/46. This result is nothing more than statistical noise on the overall trend of the last two-plus years.

However, what underlies it is decidedly not statistical noise. Have a look at the chart for approval by party ID, especially since that ObamaCare decision in 2012:

gallup-supremecourt

The most interesting trendline here might be that of the independents. Approval has trended slightly downward over time, but today’s 44% is still within the MOE of 2006′s 48% [see update below], and not quite as low as the mid-2008 approval rating, which is unlabeled or the post-ObamaCare 42% level. Their expectations may be set a little more rationally, and so avoid the spikes and plummets seen in the other demos in party-ID approval.

Otherwise, this looks … pretty familiar. When the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Bush administration, the GOP loved SCOTUS — 80% at one point and 75% at another — while Democratic approval bottomed out at 40% at least twice. After the court upheld ObamaCare, suddenly the Supremes were the greatest thing among Democrats since Diana Ross went solo, while among Republicans they became as popular as Yoko Ono in 1970. It’s worth noting, too, that Obama lost a lot in this last session of the Supreme Court, and the dramatic changes seen here may not all be about Hobby Lobby, either.

Unfortunately, this still doesn’t tell us much about the impact on the next election. Gallup doesn’t give us any more information about demographics on gender, age, or region, all of which might paint a clearer picture. One indirect indicator that the Economist/YouGov poll had it right on Hobby Lobby traction is that Republican governors consider it a non-issue for the midterms:

Democrats see the Supreme Court decision of limiting birth control coverage in some employee health plans as galvanizing voters for November, but Republican governors say the Hobby Lobby case is barely a blip, let alone a reprise of the “war on women.”

Republicans interviewed at the National Governors Association summer meeting here this weekend described the high court ruling exempting some religious owners of for-profit businesses from the Obamacare contraceptive coverage requirement as a welcome brake on President Barack Obama and his intrusive health law. And they didn’t see it causing problems. …

The governors here say they just haven’t witnessed any of the uproar that accompanied the ruling in Washington.

“It really hasn’t been an issue for us just because it’s a federal decision,” said Wisconsin’s Walker. “Honestly, we haven’t heard much of anything at the state level out on the street from people we bumped into and talked to. I’m not on the court and I’m not in the federal government so I don’t really get involved with it.”

It doesn’t help Democrats that their rhetoric has so far “been untethered from those basic facts” of the Hobby Lobby decision, as Glenn Kessler wrote in his fact check on multiple statements from Democrats. Oddly, even though Kessler repeatedly found that these claims were blatantly false — for instance, Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-WI) insistence that the court ruled that bosses could “tell their employees that they cannot use birth control” — Kessler didn’t assign anyone any of his Pinocchios.  “The Fact Checker generally does not award Pinocchios for “misspeaking” or for statements of opinion,” Kessler wrote, but most of these were made as statements of fact, not opinion.

The Hobby Lobby decision isn’t stoking widespread outrage, even while Democrats attempt widespread demagoguery. If Senate Democrats try repealing part of the RFRA as a way to turn the midterms in their favor, they will almost certainly see the project backfire as Republicans demand to know why they’re attacking religious freedom. Have fun storming that castle, Democrats, especially in this election cycle.

Update, 7/15 noon: I misread the label on the 2006 independent approval rating. It’s 60%, as Jim Passmore says in his tweet correcting me:

So the trendline is down more significantly among independents, but again, not so much during the Obama years.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

The graph looks like a python mating frenzy.

Akzed on July 14, 2014 at 4:47 PM

And when they legalize gay marriage in all 50 states the supreme will be popular with democrats again and unpopular with republicans. As the world turn.

coolrepublica on July 14, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Just because the (barely) got Hobby Lobby right doesn’t make up for all the wrong the SCOTUS decides. I have zero confidence in that group … but will admit that is more than I have in the other two branches, by far.

Smegley on July 14, 2014 at 4:47 PM

If Senate Democrats try repealing part of the RFRA as a way to turn the midterms in their favor, they will almost certainly see the project backfire as Republicans demand to know why they’re attacking religious freedom. Have fun storming that castle, Democrats, especially in this election cycle.

Well, they can always go back to running on Obamacare

Athos on July 14, 2014 at 4:51 PM

“Racists” — Holder and HA’s verbadouche

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 4:53 PM

Just wait’ll the Dems inform the electorate that five white men, including Clarence Thomas, are supporting the Warz on Wimmins. That’ll really energize their base!

Or, not.

orangemtl on July 14, 2014 at 4:55 PM

The SCOTUS has been far worse over the course of this nations history.

jake-the-goose on July 14, 2014 at 4:55 PM

It’s the best Supreme Court this country has had in at least 75 years. The scary part is we’re one vote away from Hell.

DisneyFan on July 14, 2014 at 4:57 PM

The Hobby Lobby decision isn’t stoking widespread outrage, even while Democrats attempt widespread demagoguery.

When was the last time Democrats ran a major campaign that was not entirely based on widespread demagoguery?

Without widespread demagoguery to appeal to the victim / identity politics, how would they explain their record of ‘results’ in Chicago, Detroit, California, or in DC under the Obama Administration?

Athos on July 14, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Declaring the penalty for not purchasing state-approved health insurance a “TAX” is NOT something to endear the idiotic court to this GOP (for now — waiting for Sarah) voter.

otlset on July 14, 2014 at 4:58 PM

Oddly, even though Kessler repeatedly found that these claims were blatantly false — for instance, Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-WI) insistence that the court ruled that bosses could “tell their employees that they cannot use birth control” — Kessler didn’t assign anyone any of his Pinocchios. “The Fact Checker generally does not award Pinocchios for “misspeaking” or for statements of opinion,” Kessler wrote, but most of these were made as statements of fact, not opinion.

Is it not clear to everyone yet that Kessler will NEVER be neutral and/or fair? Why do we keep referring to him as a “fact” checker?

Humphrey on July 14, 2014 at 4:59 PM

And when they legalize gay marriage in all 50 states the supreme will be popular with democrats again and unpopular with republicans. As the world turn.

coolrepublica on July 14, 2014 at 4:47 PM

It does turn.

For the life of me – I will never understand why people get so upset over “gay marriage”.

Assuming we limit the topic of marriage to “gay marriage” – how does it impact your home – your family?

(I mean the general YOU – not you coolrepublic)

Again – I speak only of gay marriage and not some extension of marriage outside that.

jake-the-goose on July 14, 2014 at 5:00 PM

It’s the best Supreme Court this country has had in at least 75 years. The scary part is we’re one vote away from Hell.

DisneyFan on July 14, 2014 at 4:57 PM

November and 2016 !!!

jake-the-goose on July 14, 2014 at 5:01 PM

The most interesting trendline here might be that of the independents.

Ed, You’re the poll guy and you devour these polls like Michelle Obama at an all-you-can-eat lobster bar but…….

I used to be a Republican. Now I’m an independent. I didn’t leave the party so much as they left me. All I’m saying is that the rise of independents is fueled in part by the GOP being controlled by Boehner, McConnell, and the US Chamber of Commerce. Social values still matter to many Americans even if you can’t see it from a very blue vantage point like Minnesota.

Happy Nomad on July 14, 2014 at 5:04 PM

These same idiots gave you obama’care’.

I hope that Roberts gets Guinea worms.

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 5:04 PM

These same idiots gave you obama’care’.

I hope that Roberts gets Guinea worms.

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 5:04 PM

That’s why we don’t stay home in November or in ’16; can you imagine if Obama or Hillary get to choose the next Justice?

Tater Salad on July 14, 2014 at 5:08 PM

But don’t dare say “Impeachment” or it’ll be total destruction from Mountain to shore.

portlandon on July 14, 2014 at 5:09 PM

I hope that Roberts gets Guinea worms.

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 5:04 PM

You’re getting softer Schad.

He needs to be in Hades.

portlandon on July 14, 2014 at 5:10 PM

That’s why we don’t stay home in November or in ’16; can you imagine if Obama or Hillary get to choose the next Justice?

Tater Salad on July 14, 2014 at 5:08 PM

Thank you – 100% correct – vote – or STFU and live with the consequences.

jake-the-goose on July 14, 2014 at 5:10 PM

So, basically, Democrats are not upset about the Hobby Lobby decision.

sentinelrules on July 14, 2014 at 5:11 PM

So, basically, Democrats are not upset about the Hobby Lobby decision.

sentinelrules on July 14, 2014 at 5:11 PM

Most, are not.

jake-the-goose on July 14, 2014 at 5:12 PM

Thank you – 100% correct – vote – or STFU and live with the consequences.

jake-the-goose on July 14, 2014 at 5:10 PM

I did that in ’08 and ’12, and true, I live with the consequences now. I will vote again in ’14 and ’16, I guess because I’ve become a glutten for punishment.

But you’re right, I just don’t feel well about things right now.

otlset on July 14, 2014 at 5:15 PM

These same idiots gave you obama’care’.

I hope that Roberts gets Guinea worms.

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 5:04 PM

And the decision to uphold Obamacare played a significant role in giving us four more years of Obama. Roberts is scum, no doubt about it.

But even with that factored in, the Court hasn’t been as conservative as it is now for a long, long time.

DisneyFan on July 14, 2014 at 5:19 PM

But don’t dare say “Impeachment” or it’ll be total destruction from Mountain to shore.

portlandon on July 14, 2014 at 5:09 PM

Wake me up when the proceedings begin.

faraway on July 14, 2014 at 5:20 PM

I think that independent is increasingly the docking point for those disaffected with both parties. And for different reasons.

How many of the models relying on a staid two-party system adequately accounts for a rising number of independents who become more critical in the outcome? Independent voters are freaks by many of these models.

Happy Nomad on July 14, 2014 at 5:20 PM

You’re getting softer Schad.

He needs to be in Hades.

portlandon on July 14, 2014 at 5:10 PM

That’s the second phase :)

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 5:21 PM

The fascist democrats can also run on voiding the First Amendment.

jukin3 on July 14, 2014 at 5:24 PM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

It’s worth noting, too, that Obama lost a lot in this last session of the Supreme Court, and the dramatic changes seen here may not all be about Hobby Lobby, either.

Let’s face it: it’s all about Hobby Lobby. Yes, there was a free speech ruling regarding invoking religion in public meetings, and there was the ruling on unions (and there were several other cases decided such as warrantless searches of cell phones). But all of those got peanuts in terms of coverage and none generated the passion that Hobby Lobby did.

Stoic Patriot on July 14, 2014 at 5:40 PM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

MSDNC in the 2012 election was super biased for liberals. Have they fixed their opinions? Oh wait…

Rix on July 14, 2014 at 5:43 PM

Mr Cool

Schadenfreude on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

When was the last time Democrats ran a major campaign that was not entirely based on widespread demagoguery?

Without widespread demagoguery to appeal to the victim / identity politics, how would they explain their record of ‘results’ in Chicago, Detroit, California, or in DC under the Obama Administration?

Athos on July 14, 2014 at 4:57 PM

As opposed to the nuance of “death panels”, “kenyan marxist muslim”, and “they took our jobs!”

Politicians demagogue, duh. Why? Because it works. Because the mass of americans don’t give a rip and can only be encouraged to actually participate by hitting the outrage button. That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

Is it not clear to everyone yet that Kessler will NEVER be neutral and/or fair? Why do we keep referring to him as a “fact” checker?

Humphrey on July 14, 2014 at 4:59 PM

I’ve been saying the same for some time.

Drained Brain on July 14, 2014 at 5:51 PM

That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

.
How frightening is it ? … Enough so, that you’re going into hiding ?

listens2glenn on July 14, 2014 at 5:58 PM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

No they weren’t. In fact, among registered voters, Gallup had O’bama ahead almost all year.

F-

Del Dolemonte on July 14, 2014 at 5:59 PM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

I dont care what they say, that right there is funny. You crack me up.

Lord Whorfin on July 14, 2014 at 6:01 PM

You too, tialoc

Lord Whorfin on July 14, 2014 at 6:02 PM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

I wish they could but it’s hard to predict the levels of voting fraud that the Democratics can get away with. That 120% of the census population that voted in the corrupt inner cities can’t be polled.

slickwillie2001 on July 14, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

Actually Gallup had the Obama vote about right; 8M less votes than ’08. It was the Romney vote than didn’t materialize as they expected.

Tater Salad on July 14, 2014 at 6:10 PM

…pole!

JugEarsButtHurt on July 14, 2014 at 6:27 PM

That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

Horse Hockey.

Your Cult Leader O’bama is a world-class fear porn merchant, and his Democrat Media is only too happy to parrot what he says.

Remember the sequester? The liberal media helped push O’bama’s meme that it would have major negative impacts, and they even happily went along with O’bama’s Fear Porn that said sequester would threaten the existence of Social Security.

The liberal media also generated plenty of Fear Porn between 2001 and 2009. Bush, for example, was going to put all American Muslims in concentration camps.

This is nothing new, either. The other day Michael Stipe of the band REM said that he fell victim to liberal Fear Porn when Reagan was President. He admitted that he didn’t get tested for AIDS for a full 5 years because he was afraid Reagan would throw him in a concentration camp.

F-

Del Dolemonte on July 14, 2014 at 6:32 PM

As opposed to the nuance of “death panels”,

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

Speaking of that demagoguery…

Hey, cutie- don’t imagine you’ve seen any evidence of something similar to death panels in the the single payer health care system we already have – also known as the VA?

Veterans dying while waiting for appointments that were purposefully withheld, based on decisions by VA bureaucrats- ring any bells?

No? Still thinking?

But while we’re waiting, we’ll discuss those campaigns you’ve witnessed which relied on those death panel nuances… we’d love some links. ‘Member? Campaign demogoguery?

Dolce Far Niente on July 14, 2014 at 6:37 PM

God forbid we get another white Catholic.

The graph looks like a python mating frenzy.

Akzed on July 14, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Is that a graph in your pants…

formwiz on July 14, 2014 at 7:03 PM

. That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

Yeh nothing like the demonizing of the Tea Party or the Global Warming Scare you freaks bring.

CW on July 14, 2014 at 7:52 PM

But while we’re waiting, we’ll discuss those campaigns you’ve witnessed which relied on those death panel nuances… we’d love some links. ‘Member? Campaign demogoguery?

Dolce Far Niente on July 14, 2014 at 6:37 PM

To water carriers and non-thinkers like Tialoc that doesn’t count.

CW on July 14, 2014 at 7:54 PM

The only people upset about Hobby Lobby are a few cat hoarders at Huffpost.

Perspicacious on July 14, 2014 at 10:36 PM

SCOTUS rewriting Obamacare to make it Constitutional was the last time I would give respect to any decision from the black robed coven.
They have used the Constitution as toilet paper.
SCOTUS has become just another political agency of the government.
Time for a change:
Have the entire Senate select 10 worthy candidates….we are told there are many. Selection requires 2/3 vote.
Number the names.
Place their numbers in the Powerball machine and have one selected, randomly.
You now have the new member of the court.
Service term shall be 6 years.
Whaddya think?
III

Sgt Stryker on July 15, 2014 at 1:37 AM

Gallup in the 2012 election was super biased for conservatives. Have they fixed their methods?

libfreeordie on July 14, 2014 at 5:37 PM

There weren’t any conservatives on the ballot in the presidential race (or many others, for that matter). Your statement is invalid.

Immolate on July 15, 2014 at 9:22 AM

That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

It doesn’t speak well to your character that you are so easily frightened by the opinion of someone you don’t know on a tiny fraction of the media. Sleep with the lights on much?

Immolate on July 15, 2014 at 9:25 AM

Approval for Supreme Court steady as GOP favor soars

Until the Chief Traitor to the Constitution, John “Benedict” Roberts, undoes his ObamaCare illegality, the SCOTUS is simply the cheapest kind of corrupt politician.

RJL on July 15, 2014 at 4:31 PM