QI GDP revised sharply downward to -2.9%; Flashback: Remember when ObamaCare saved us from contraction?

posted at 9:11 am on June 25, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Remember when the Obama administration considered a GDP contraction of 1% in the first quarter just a hiccup, mainly caused by weather? Good times, good times. That itself was a rather sharp downward revision from the advance estimate of 0.1%, but that was just a mere stumble compared to the plunge in the final revision. The Commerce Department now states that GDP fell at an annualized rate of -2.9% in the first quarter, the worst in more than five years:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014 according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2013, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. …

Real GDP declined 2.9 percent in the first quarter, after increasing 2.6 percent in the fourth. This downturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected a downturn in exports, a larger decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in PCE, and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in federal government spending.

This time the news is bad across the board. Exports dropped 8.9% in Q1, a huge drop from 2013, which wasn’t exactly spectacular either. Real final sales of domestic product dropped 1.3%, where in earlier estimates it had remained in positive territory. Business investment also fell:

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 5.7 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 7.7 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.8 percent. Equipment decreased 2.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 10.9 percent. Intellectual property products increased 6.3 percent, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 4.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.9 percent.

Reuters noted immediately that this is not just weather-related:

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy’s worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

While the economy’s woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since the government’s first estimate was published in April, which had the economy expanding at a 0.1 percent rate.

The difference between the second and third estimates was the largest on records going back to 1976, the Commerce Department said.

Underscoring that is the May durable-goods report, which showed a contraction of 1.0% despite having a month of mild-to-good weather:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $238.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.8 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $2.3 billion or 3.0 percent to $74.4 billion.

Again, business investment signals even rougher times ahead:

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in May decreased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $82.1 billion. Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $75.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $662.7 billion. Inventories increased $2.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $181.7 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in May decreased $4.0 billion or 31.4 percent to $8.8 billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $9.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $158.9 billion. Inventories increased slightly or 0.1 percent to $23.6 billion.

This comes as Barack Obama planned yet another “pivot” to the economy, in the hopes of distracting from bad news in foreign policy and at the VA and IRS. The previously poor Q1 results already had the White House on the defensive, which they tried to brush off as weather-related and anomalous. Clearly, neither is the case. The economy has run aground on Obama’s own policies, and we’ll be lucky to hit positive growth at all this year with the bad Q1 number looming over everything. That calls into question all of Obama’s budget projections, which were based on irrationally sunny projections of economic growth this year and the next few years.

We’ve been complaining about stagnation ever since the June 2009 technical recovery. Now we may look at stagnation with some nostalgia in the months ahead. If Q2 GDP ends up in negative territory, that’s a recession no matter what the weather looks like.

Update: The advance estimate was a positive 0.1%, not -0.1%. I have corrected it above.

Update: Steve Eggleston sends an interesting analysis via e-mail:

- Tom Blumer identified the biggest contributor to this unexpectedly-bad report – a rather-radical overestimation of spending on health care (http://www.bizzyblog.com/2014/06/25/1q14-gross-domestic-product-3rd-reading-062514/). Its contribution to the change in real GDP went from +1.10 percentage points in the advance estimate to +1.01 points in the second estimate to -0.16 points in the final estimate.

- If you think the 17th-worst quarter on record (going back to 1947) for real GDP is bad, the -1.71% change in nominal (current-dollar) GDP, which is the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2009, is the 10th-worst on record.  Other than the heart of the Great Recession (4th quarter of 2008 and 1st quarter of 2009), the last time nominal GDP fell by at least this much was the 4th quarter of 1960.

Of course, the BEA will get another bite at this next month when they do their annual revision of the previous 5 years of data.

There are a lot of analysts trying the Chip Diller spin today, but this is meaningful and bad news.

Update: Regarding Blumer’s observation, remember when Jay Carney credited ObamaCare for saving us from a contraction?

Uh … sure.


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That was unexpected.

Walter L. Newton on June 25, 2014 at 9:15 AM

I can’t believe they are still trying to blame it on the Winter Weather. By that line of reasoning, we should have negative growth about every 5 years or so during the winter when we get a bad winter. Idiots!

Johnnyreb on June 25, 2014 at 9:16 AM

If Q2 GDP ends up in negative territory, that’s a recession no matter what the weather looks like.

That can’t be allowed to happen.

forest on June 25, 2014 at 9:17 AM

Bush!!!!!!!!!!

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:17 AM

If you look closely at the pic you can just see Dog Eater at the top, laughing as he pushes the poor dude off the cliff.

Bishop on June 25, 2014 at 9:18 AM

The advance estimate was +0.1%, not -0.1%. And it was obviously contrived. How do you miss by 3.0% unless you are desperate to stay above 0?

JeremiahJohnson on June 25, 2014 at 9:18 AM

Summer of recov…
Global warming is to bla…
It’s a one off blip on the rada…
What differences, at this point, does it ma…

Not quite sure what excuses they’ll use, but they’ll find some!

xNavigator on June 25, 2014 at 9:18 AM

We can look forward to Recover Summer….again…

Or is global Warming going to screw that up as well?

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:19 AM

I can’t believe they are still trying to blame it on the Winter Weather. By that line of reasoning, we should have negative growth about every 5 years or so during the winter when we get a bad winter. Idiots!

Johnnyreb on June 25, 2014 at 9:16 AM

Well they’re not going to assign blame to Obama or the Democrats, are they?

Doughboy on June 25, 2014 at 9:19 AM

Obama must redouble his efforts to regulate the power plants away, block oil and gas drilling and the Keystone Pipeline, and to “invest” more money in Solyndra.

That will fix it.

I will give you three words that explain what is wrong with the economy:

Barack HUSSEIN Obama

Who is going to be madder than hell when he reads about this in the paper.

ConstantineXI on June 25, 2014 at 9:19 AM

If you look closely at the pic you can just see Dog Eater at the top, laughing as he pushes the poor dude off the cliff.

Bishop on June 25, 2014 at 9:18 AM

I knew the Paul Ryan look alike looked more like Obama….
/

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:20 AM

With the way these figures are finagled of late, I would be surprised if they’re making room for showing growth immediately before the midterms.

nemo on June 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM

Toilet Flush Recovery.

hillsoftx on June 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM

Democrats will sure love when amnesty inoculates them from the political fallout from these kinds of economic reports. Are the welfare checks still flowing? All’s good!

crrr6 on June 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM

This was TOTALLY expected, regardless of what the apologists and pundits say. The economy can only handle so much abuse–then it caves… Welcome to Obamanomics!

Armyspouse on June 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM

Obama has his work cut out for him on the Wall Street today….

ObamaBucks will be flowing

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:22 AM

Divot the economy.

Flange on June 25, 2014 at 9:22 AM

Obama’s Bicycle Economy….he’s gonna have us all riding the two wheelers soon…like the Chinese, just the way he wants it

Privatize It on June 25, 2014 at 9:22 AM

Not to worry. We’ll just start up a nice little police action in Iraq and get that military industrial complex raging. Lots of money to made there, you know.

HiJack on June 25, 2014 at 9:22 AM

It’s only a recession if a Republican is President, Ed.

Tom Blumer found the big culprit – wildly inaccurate estimations of spending on health care, which went from contributing +1.10 percentage points to real GDP change in the advance estimate to +1.01 percentage points in the second estimate to -0.16 percentage points in the final estimate.

One more item – the -1.71% the nominal (current-dollar) GDP fell was the first drop since the Great Recession (specifically the 2nd quarter of 2009) and the 10th-worst since quarterly estimates of GDP began in 1947. Other than the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the last time nominal GDP fell this much was the 4th quarter of 1960.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 9:23 AM

Reuters noted immediately that this is not just weather-related:

Reuters is wrong. This is PURELY weather related. This is due to nothing other than Typhoon Barky and his America-hating, third-world, tyrannically retarded dictats.

Of course, it’s not as if this economy ever got off the ground, anyway … and we still have well over $17 trillion in debt to look forward to being strangled with (and counting) as well as over $3 trillion in Fed balance sheet to unwind (ROFLMAO!!).

Yep, the future looks really bright – as bright as an H-bomb exploding …

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 25, 2014 at 9:23 AM

With the way these figures are finagled of late, I would be surprised if they’re making room for showing growth immediately before the midterms.

nemo on June 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM

I’d buy that if the original figure of 0.1% was the final number. But not this. -2.9% GDP is the last thing any Democrat up for reelection wants to have to defend over the next few months.

Doughboy on June 25, 2014 at 9:23 AM

Please Sir, can I have some more?

tim c on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

Could be a real bloodbath this upcoming election… too bad the choices seem to be between Democrat and Democrat-Lite.

Ukiah on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

When people have to spend limited funds on Obamacare that is doubling and tripling their healthcare costs, there is nothing left for anything else…

But illegals get everything for free, including new underwear…

PatriotRider on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

I assume the “other factors at play” will conveniently omit ObamaCare.

RSbrewer on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

I know … I know … Lois Lerner’s hard drive had Excel on it.

corona79 on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

That darn Global Warming! Just when Obama had saved the economy with his fiscal responsibility!!

whatcat on June 25, 2014 at 9:25 AM

Happy daze are here again!

TarheelBen on June 25, 2014 at 9:25 AM

repeat from headline, and so it this:
I know … I know … Lois Lerner’s hard drive had Excel on it.

corona79 on June 25, 2014 at 9:26 AM

Unexpectedly?

Brock Robamney on June 25, 2014 at 9:26 AM

When Obama gets up this morning and reads this in the newspaper…….

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:27 AM

The “limousine liberals” controlled Wall Street should be celebrating this very bad economic news… The worse is the real economy the better it is for them… More trillions of dollars in printed money to buy their toxic assets and borrow money at zero interest but charge their customers very high interest…

mnjg on June 25, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Fire up the Fed printing presses…

PatriotRider on June 25, 2014 at 9:28 AM

That itself was a rather sharp downward revision from the advance estimate of -0.1%…

The advance estimate was +0.1%.

NotCoach on June 25, 2014 at 9:28 AM

But illegals get everything for free, including new underwear…

PatriotRider on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

Before they invaded us and were given aid and comfort by Barky, the dems and the Vichy GOP traitors, these illegals didn’t even know what underwear was. They still don’t, which is why most of them are wearing it on the outside … also so El Presidente Barky can check that they change it every hour.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 25, 2014 at 9:29 AM

The best objective real-time indicator of the health of the U.S. economy suggests that the worst is behind us – although through May 2014, we’re still not out of the woods.

One thing to look for when GDP for 2014-Q2 is reported next month – because the decline in Q1 was so sharp, and because of the sensitivity of the growth rate calculation to even small changes in the quarterly GDP data, it’s very likely that the annualized growth rate will appear to be “impressive”, although that would be in the Potemkin village sense.

ironman on June 25, 2014 at 9:29 AM

Fire up the Fed printing presses…

PatriotRider on June 25, 2014 at 9:28 AM

And “limousine liberals” controlled Wall Street shall rejoice more and more…

mnjg on June 25, 2014 at 9:30 AM

But illegals get everything for free, including new underwear…

PatriotRider on June 25, 2014 at 9:24 AM

Funny you should mention that. The BO admin claims they are “surprised” by all the kids coming across the border. It turns out they are not at all surprised but in fact were planning for 65,000 of them at least as far back as Jan of this year.

Here is the proof: Escort Services for Unaccompanied Alien Children

This is a solicitation for a contract to “escort” these kids and was posted in late Jan of this year. You have to open the documentation to see the projected number of 65,000.

But why 65,000 when the previous high number was 5000?

Right. That whole thing taking place on the border has been planned and orchestrated by BO and his minions.

But then we already knew that, huh?

climbnjump on June 25, 2014 at 9:31 AM

obamanomics-”We shrink business like nobodies business”

ConservativePartyNow on June 25, 2014 at 9:31 AM

Relax, Obama, CNN has your back.

CNN Money’s Top Headline right now:

3 reasons not to freak out about -2.9% GDP

sentinelrules on June 25, 2014 at 9:31 AM

Up next: Obama speech declaring a pivot towards the economy with a lazer like focus.

MikeInBA on June 25, 2014 at 9:31 AM

Remember in 2009 when the Government said that the Bush Recession was over…..

Good times…

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:31 AM

I got nothing.

Obama is here for 2 days – barf!

gophergirl on June 25, 2014 at 9:32 AM

Morning Joe was still blaming the weather

cmsinaz on June 25, 2014 at 9:32 AM

And the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April was 6.3 percent and went down to a wonderful 6.3 percent in May.Oops, that was unexpected. What happened to all those summer jobs that usually bump the rate lower at this time of year?

At the moment I am writing the May unemployment report for my newspaper covering county, state and nation. I’m laughing a lot. The Obama administration makes my job humorous.

Walter L. Newton on June 25, 2014 at 9:33 AM

The advance estimate was +0.1%, not -0.1%. And it was obviously contrived. How do you miss by 3.0% unless you are desperate to stay above 0?

JeremiahJohnson on June 25, 2014 at 9:18 AM

Correct. A mistake of that magnitude is not a mistake at all, it is intentional.

Irritable Pundit on June 25, 2014 at 9:34 AM

Let’s put the rest of the coal fired power plants out of business, that ought to rev up the economy. Not.

JimK on June 25, 2014 at 9:35 AM

Whatevs, Q1 was so like 2 months ago.

HumpBot Salvation on June 25, 2014 at 9:35 AM

Isn’t this called a recession??

ToddPA on June 25, 2014 at 9:35 AM

I can’t believe they are still trying to blame it on the Winter Weather. By that line of reasoning, we should have negative growth about every 5 years or so during the winter when we get a bad winter. Idiots!

Johnnyreb on June 25, 2014 at 9:16 AM

and the other side of that coin is the need to expedite global warming for the sake of the economy.

tej on June 25, 2014 at 9:36 AM

I will bet my next Navy Retirement check that the Q2 numbers are going to be initially reported as positive, and then revised quietly down into negative territory twice.

Johnnyreb on June 25, 2014 at 9:37 AM

This comes as Barack Obama planned yet another “pivot” to the economy, in the hopes of distracting from bad news in foreign policy and at the VA and IRS.

Pivot after pivot, screwing himself further into the ground with each turn. Once you’ve dug that hole deep enough to get below ground level, the view is pretty much the same no matter which direction you pivot.

bofh on June 25, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Well at least al qaeda has been decimated and is no longer a threat. There’s always that plus the Southern border is secure.

Oldnuke on June 25, 2014 at 9:40 AM

This comes as Barack Obama planned yet another “pivot” to the economy, in the hopes of distracting from bad news in foreign policy and at the VA and IRS.

Quick time to throw another Executive Order on the pile. We’ve had the gays and women pandered to this week so I’ll take illegals in the pool about what group will benefit from this latest example of the filthy stupid bastard’s bad stewardship.

Happy Nomad on June 25, 2014 at 9:43 AM

Isn’t this called a recession??

ToddPA on June 25, 2014 at 9:35 AM

Not yet. The classical definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction, and the NBER/Presstorian Guard-Business Definition excludes those periods when a Rat is President.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 9:44 AM

This was clearly multi-factorial. The cold winter, global warming, George Bush, and republicans in general.

tdarrington on June 25, 2014 at 9:45 AM

Well at least al qaeda has been decimated and is no longer a threat. There’s always that plus the Southern border is secure.

Oldnuke on June 25, 2014 at 9:40 AM

…and the bureaucracy and the three branches of government are humming along just as the founders intended as well.

bofh on June 25, 2014 at 9:45 AM

Can you imagine the renewed pressure that BO will exert to get more money to his peeps, and the GOP may well fold.

It looks like we may repeat the 1930s.

ha_tspc on June 25, 2014 at 9:45 AM

Clearly what is needed is another 3000 pages of business regulation. And taxes. Lots of taxes.

tdarrington on June 25, 2014 at 9:46 AM

As the tops of our heads disappear into the quicksand, the mainstream media continues to fabricate a “silver lining”. We need a massive change in this poor sick Republic just to maintain its relevancy.

rplat on June 25, 2014 at 9:46 AM

Meanwhile, a sampling of experts polled by this JournoLister predict the economy soaring in the 2nd quarter and beyond into infinity, then the policies of our Dear Leader are expected to fully take root.

/lipstick /pig

MNHawk on June 25, 2014 at 9:47 AM

What, you all starting to NOT like living in Obamaville?

Have fun with $6/gallon gas this summer. And you always have January to look forward to.

That’s when all the poor saps that still have jobs in America all lose our health insurance benefits! WOW, that’s going to be great, huh?!

I know I can’t wait!

Meople on June 25, 2014 at 9:48 AM

If there is a recession, will the MSM even bother to report it? Or will they let Sheriff Joe get by once again by proclaiming a new “Summer of Recovery!”

GarandFan on June 25, 2014 at 9:48 AM

Obama needs to pivot to the Republican-created humanitarian crisis on the southern border.

tdarrington on June 25, 2014 at 9:48 AM

We need more immigrants, that’ll fix it,

Kissmygrits on June 25, 2014 at 9:48 AM

I hear there is lots of land available in Belize.

tdarrington on June 25, 2014 at 9:50 AM

Is this going to be the Fall of Recovery?

Flange on June 25, 2014 at 9:50 AM

Not yet. The classical definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction, and the NBER/Presstorian Guard-Business Definition excludes those periods when a Rat is President.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 9:44 AM

In an election year, there is no way the numbers are going to reflect the classic definitionof a recession. It may require massive “recalculation” after November but we will officially be in an economy that is slowly growing for the rest of the year.

Happy Nomad on June 25, 2014 at 9:52 AM

is it recovery summer yet?

Conservative4ev on June 25, 2014 at 9:53 AM

It’s only going to take the near fall of western civilization to bring presidential ratings below 40%. The economy in contraction, with upcoming Obamacare body blows, the breakout of regional conflict allover the damn place, our allies sneering at our leadership, a determined opponent of civilization on the march in the Middle East, and only the most tenuous patience keeping China and Japan apart from violent conflict. Wow.

Of course, among the MSM Obamas approval is still at 100%, so it may take a while for the voters opinions of Progressivism and the President to drop lower.

MTF on June 25, 2014 at 9:53 AM

Thank Gawd the adults are in charge.

Closet Optimist on June 25, 2014 at 9:54 AM

Whatevs, Q1 was so like 2 months ago.

HumpBot Salvation on June 25, 2014 at 9:35 AM

Dude this story is like 5 years old man /sarc

Conservative4ev on June 25, 2014 at 9:55 AM

In an election year, there is no way the numbers are going to reflect the classic definitionof a recession. It may require massive “recalculation” after November but we will officially be in an economy that is slowly growing for the rest of the year.

Happy Nomad on June 25, 2014 at 9:52 AM

You know it. I can even tell you when said “recalculation” will occur – the end of July 2015 with that year’s comprehensive revision of 2010-first quarter 2015.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this quarter’s numbers get even worse with this year’s comprehensive revision of 2009-first quarter 2014.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 9:56 AM

The GDP Dropped woohoo the market should take off today, more fed money being pumped in, happy days are here again /sarc

Conservative4ev on June 25, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Bush!!!!!!!!!!

Electrongod on June 25, 2014 at 9:17 AM

Yes, Bush. And Obama. And their parties in congress. And the federal reserve.

rickv404 on June 25, 2014 at 9:59 AM

You guys are all just glass half empty doom and gloomers. Just as soon as The Won finishes up destroying the electrical power industry and all the new jobs from the wonderful all green renewable energy technology that’s sure to erupt starts kicking in the economy will take off like a rocket!

Oldnuke on June 25, 2014 at 9:59 AM

It’s the fault of (pick one):

Bush
Congressional Republicans
Fox News
The Koch Brothers
The Tea Party
Greedy Businesses

He Who Some Call A Traitor on June 25, 2014 at 9:59 AM

But, according to that Internet meme going around, it’s +4.1%.

Ward Cleaver on June 25, 2014 at 10:03 AM

To say that I don’t understand the intricacies of these things would be a major understatement but is this one of those reports where it is actually much worse than it appears because they leave out major stuff? An example would be inflation. We have no inflation because they leave food and energy out of the equation. How can you leave out food and energy?

Cindy Munford on June 25, 2014 at 10:04 AM

Not yet. The classical definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction, and the NBER/Presstorian Guard-Business Definition excludes those periods when a Rat is President.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 9:44 AM

And they even invented a new definition for “recession” when Bush was in office. I forget what the exact despicable, lying scumbag new world “recession” definition was but I think it had something to do with the peak of employment (or something) so that they could declare a recession a few quarters earlier.

Of course, they changed the definition of “oil price” the minute the third-world, dog-eating retard got into office, quietly switching from Brent Crude (the traditional “price of oil”) to West Texas Intermediate, which had the effect of immediately slashing $20/bbl! You can see how screwed up they made things because they would quote the (new, lower) daily price in West Texas while comparing it to the “old” prices during Bush’s term, which were in Brent Crude and then talk about the all-time high, which West Texas Intermediate never hit! But … they got away with that … as usual …

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 25, 2014 at 10:04 AM

Happy Nomad on June 25, 2014 at 9:52 AM

Wouldn’t they have to be really careful about this? This is an election year and if the Republicans (such as they are) take all of Congress, wouldn’t any uptick reflect poorly on Democrats?

Cindy Munford on June 25, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Oldnuke on June 25, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Thx for the chuckle.

Closet Optimist on June 25, 2014 at 10:08 AM

An example would be inflation. We have no inflation because they leave food and energy out of the equation. How can you leave out food and energy?

Cindy Munford on June 25, 2014 at 10:04 AM

Food and energy prices were on Lois Lerner’s computer. It crashed and ate them. Nothing could be done about it …

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 25, 2014 at 10:09 AM

If Q2 GDP ends up in negative territory, that’s a recession no matter what the weather looks like.

In reality Q1 is lower than they are reporting:

http://www.consumerindexes.com/

If we were to use the BPP data to adjust for inflation, the first quarter’s contraction rate would have been a staggering -3.64%.

Our economy is glacial. Do any of you think it has had a four point swing? ONLY IN THE PROPGANDA DELIVERED BY THE OZombies.

Look, it will get worse before it gets better.

dogsoldier on June 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM

Is this going to be the Fall of Recovery?

Flange on June 25, 2014 at 9:50 AM

No, it’s going to be the Fall of America.

HumpBot Salvation on June 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 25, 2014 at 10:09 AM

Oh, that explains it!

Cindy Munford on June 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM

And they even invented a new definition for “recession” when Bush was in office. I forget what the exact despicable, lying scumbag new world “recession” definition was but I think it had something to do with the peak of employment (or something) so that they could declare a recession a few quarters earlier.

Of course, they changed the definition of “oil price” the minute the third-world, dog-eating retard got into office, quietly switching from Brent Crude (the traditional “price of oil”) to West Texas Intermediate, which had the effect of immediately slashing $20/bbl! You can see how screwed up they made things because they would quote the (new, lower) daily price in West Texas while comparing it to the “old” prices during Bush’s term, which were in Brent Crude and then talk about the all-time high, which West Texas Intermediate never hit! But … they got away with that … as usual …

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 25, 2014 at 10:04 AM

Those who want to win write the immediate history.

That would be the second time the NBER changed their definition to screw Bush. The 2001 “recession” doesn’t meet the classical definition, and if they applied the 2008 “official” definition (rather than their de facto post-1980 definition that DemocRATs can never preside over recessions), that 2001 “recession” would have began in 2000.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 10:13 AM

Tom Blumer identified the biggest contributor to this unexpectedly-bad report – a rather-radical overestimation of spending on health care (http://www.bizzyblog.com/2014/06/25/1q14-gross-domestic-product-3rd-reading-062514/). Its contribution to the change in real GDP went from +1.10 percentage points in the advance estimate to +1.01 points in the second estimate to -0.16 points in the final estimate.

Prices are up but spending is down on healthcare. Is that because fewer people have private pay health insurance thanks to Obamacare?

forest on June 25, 2014 at 10:13 AM

And isn’t this -2.9% based upon the “new math” calculations of how Obama admin decided a year ago or so that GDP calculation needed to accurately reflect the tech economy or some-such??

So I would love to see what the number is in old math.

And comparing apples to apples – if they’re admitting -2.9, you KNOW the real number is much lower.

MistyLane on June 25, 2014 at 10:14 AM

Remarkable how the unemployment rate keeps trending downward in a stagnant and now shrinking economy.

forest on June 25, 2014 at 10:15 AM

Prices are up but spending is down on healthcare. Is that because fewer people have private pay health insurance thanks to Obamacare?

forest on June 25, 2014 at 10:13 AM

Quite possibly. Do note that those percentage points are health care’s contribution to the various estimates of real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) GDP.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2014 at 10:15 AM

The radical transformation is going according to plan.

M240H on June 25, 2014 at 10:18 AM

And just think — these are still fake numbers (as have all of them since DogEater was coronated) … we’ve been in a Depression for 5+ years.

ShainS on June 25, 2014 at 10:19 AM

We need to re-elect all these guys.

kcewa on June 25, 2014 at 10:20 AM

I just looked at the ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN news sites, and the only mention is a “headline” on NBC’s site, 1/3 of the way down the page.

What’s the big news according to the LSM? SCOTUS ruling against Aereo.

Ward Cleaver on June 25, 2014 at 10:21 AM

And isn’t this -2.9% based upon the “new math” calculations of how Obama admin decided a year ago or so that GDP calculation needed to accurately reflect the tech economy or some-such??

So I would love to see what the number is in old math.

And comparing apples to apples – if they’re admitting -2.9, you KNOW the real number is much lower.

MistyLane on June 25, 2014 at 10:14 AM

New math is hard.

Ward Cleaver on June 25, 2014 at 10:22 AM

*********************** InComplete *****************************

economic indicators
31m
White House says GDP report illustrates recovery from recession ‘remains incomplete’ – @WhiteHouse
Read more on whitehouse.gov
=============================

Third Estimate of GDP for the First Quarter of 2014
Posted by Jason Furman on June 25, 2014 at 09:30 AM EDT

First-quarter GDP was revised down today, largely reflecting updated estimates of consumer spending on health care, which was substantially lower than originally reported, as well as exports, which were below the initial estimates. The GDP data can be volatile from quarter to quarter; a range of other data show a more positive picture for the first quarter, and more up-to-date indicators from April and May suggest that the economy is on track for a rebound in the second quarter. The recovery from the Great Recession, however, remains incomplete, and the President will continue to do everything he can to support the recovery, either by acting through executive action or by working with Congress on steps that would boost growth and speed job creation.

FIVE KEY POINTS IN TODAY’S REPORT FROM THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
(More……………….)
=========================

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/06/25/third-estimate-gdp-first-quarter-2014

canopfor on June 25, 2014 at 10:22 AM

Remember the news leak in the summer of 2012 in which Obama fretted that a President Romney would get credit for the impending economic boom?

mjbrooks3 on June 25, 2014 at 10:22 AM

You want this country needs right now. Higher healthcare and energy costs. /s

This is will be the pattern until Obama gets out.

Oil Can on June 25, 2014 at 10:23 AM

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