Obama hits new low on Iraq in new WaPo/ABC poll

posted at 8:01 am on June 24, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

There’s not much to the new Washington Post/ABC poll except Iraq, which used to be a good issue for Barack Obama in this series. In April 2009, after having embraced the Bush-Maliki SOFA as the vehicle for total withdrawal, Obama scored a 71/21 on Iraq. A year later, the response was more rational but still positive at 48/42 and 49/45, but oddly the WaPo/ABC poll series hasn’t surveyed on this topic in the almost four years since.

Until now, that is — and now Obama’s underwater:

President Obama receives his worst marks yet for handling the situation in Iraq, with 52 percent disapproving and strong negative sentiment now outpacing strong approval by 2 to 1 (34 to 17 percent) in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. …

For the first time in Post-ABC polls disapproval of Obama for handling Iraq outpaces approval, 52 to 42 percent. His ratings tilted positive the last time Iraq approval was asked in September 2010 – 49 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving, with nearly one-third of Republicans giving him positive marks (31 percent). But Republican support has plummeted to 13 percent in the new poll while independents have also shifted negatively, with the share approving of his Iraq efforts dipping from 49 to 40 percent. Democrats have been more consistent in approval of Obama, though their level of support fails to match Republicans’ opposition.

If it’s any comfort to the White House, the shift from September 2010 isn’t all that dramatic, although the passion of the opposition certainly has. He’s gone from a +4 to a -10, a fourteen point change. That’s significant but not really a collapse, especially since this series stopped asking about Iraq four years ago. If we had more recent data points, we might be able to tell whether this is just a shock, or whether Obama has been underwater on Iraq for a longer period of time than just in the last few weeks. It’s entirely possible that people began rethinking Obama’s handling of Iraq at the same time that it became clear that Obama had lost control of his policy toward Syria, which is not unrelated to the collapse of Iraq.

The poll also has some relatively good news for Obama, or perhaps more accurately less bad news. Almost two-thirds oppose the use of US ground forces in Iraq, 30/65, just like Obama does. Respondents are split on air strikes, 45/46, an option which Obama is supposedly holding in reserve until Baghdad reforms its government. That split has strong undercurrents tied to party ID and gender, however. Only Republicans have a majority in support of air strikes, while men (54/40) and women (38/52) are almost diametrically opposite on the option.

In the end, though, Obama’s polling on Iraq is probably not going to drive his policy response or the fortunes of Democrats in the midterms, so the poll results are more academic than anything else. A better indicator of Obama’s standing and Democratic party fortunes can be found at Gallup, where Obama is now 15 points underwater at 40/55 in the three-day average from their daily polling. Just two weeks ago, that was at 46/47. Iraq has something to do with that, but that may also be the IRS scandal, ObamaCare, the VA scandal, the Taliban 5 swap, or the economy — all of which feed into the increasing consensus that Obama has lost control and hasn’t the leadership skills to get it back. It’s the Bush plunge redux, and it’s coming at the same relative point in Obama’s presidency.


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So in reality he’s tanking hard. No doubt the sample on this poll is D+20 or something.

dogsoldier on June 24, 2014 at 8:06 AM

The dithering shall continue until morale the poll numbers increase.

ConstantineXI on June 24, 2014 at 8:07 AM

Even sharp creases don’t last forever.

Steve Eggleston on June 24, 2014 at 8:08 AM

So in reality he’s tanking hard. No doubt the sample on this poll is D+20 or something.

dogsoldier on June 24, 2014 at 8:06 AM

I have a bumper sticker on my car that reads:

“Your Obama sticker might as well say I’m a Dumbass”

ConstantineXI on June 24, 2014 at 8:09 AM

Even sharp creases don’t last forever.

Steve Eggleston on June 24, 2014 at 8:08 AM

Sharp creases, dull mind.

ConstantineXI on June 24, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Lame duck

Quack quack

cmsinaz on June 24, 2014 at 8:12 AM

Embrace the suck…..

crosshugger on June 24, 2014 at 8:12 AM

Just two weeks ago, that was at 46/47. Iraq has something to do with that, but that may also be the IRS scandal, ObamaCare, the VA scandal, the Taliban 5 swap, or the economy — all of which feed into the increasing consensus that Obama has lost control and hasn’t the leadership skills to get it back. It’s the Bush plunge redux, and it’s coming at the same relative point in Obama’s presidency.

It could be even worse for Obama, if the swing voters lock in on the idea that not only doesn’t he have the leadership skills to get it back, but he really doesn’t care about doing it if everyone won’t make it easy on him, and is simply disengaging from even caring about the issues.

A president who not only can’t get it right, but doesn’t even about trying would be a major middle finger to those swing voters who elected and re-elected Obama based on the idea he was going to make them feel good about themselves by his historical ascendancy to the White House. The swing voters have notoriously short attention spans, but they’re probably long enough, and the Iraq debacle mixed with the other scandals will remain in the news long enough, to really hurt the Democrats in November.

jon1979 on June 24, 2014 at 8:13 AM

Not low enough. What the heII is wrong with our fellow citizens?

Bmore on June 24, 2014 at 8:13 AM

Constantine

I still see those stickers around
smh

cmsinaz on June 24, 2014 at 8:15 AM

all of which feed into the increasing consensus that Obama has lost control and hasn’t the leadership skills to get it back.

Has the lazy stupid bastard even tried to regain control? Seriously, he spent last weekend golfing and fundraising. He seldom talks to world leaders and is not attempting to do anything but throw some special forces at the Iraqis as “advisors” without any real commitment to changing the dynamics in Iraq or keeping Americans in the region safe.

Obama given up all pretense of being a leader.

Happy Nomad on June 24, 2014 at 8:16 AM

Obama given up all pretense of being a leader.

Happy Nomad on June 24, 2014 at 8:16 AM

I don’t think he wants to be. He wants to party, enjoy the perks and only focus on his “pet” projects.

Guy has no interest in leading this country.

gophergirl on June 24, 2014 at 8:19 AM

Not low enough. What the heII is wrong with our fellow citizens?

Bmore on June 24, 2014 at 8:13 AM

His floor has always been in the high 30′s/low 40′s. There are simply too many people in this country who will never turn on him for various reasons. But if he’s firmly entrenched in that range, his party is in big trouble.

Doughboy on June 24, 2014 at 8:20 AM

I don’t think he wants to be. He wants to party, enjoy the perks and only focus on his “pet” projects.

Guy has no interest in leading this country.

gophergirl on June 24, 2014 at 8:19 AM

He thinks he’s the greatest leader in history. He also thinks he should be universally praised and adored. Narcissists become dangerous when they face public rejection.

Obama’s personality makes him even more dangerous the less popular he becomes.

ConstantineXI on June 24, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Iraq has something to do with that, but that may also be the IRS scandal, ObamaCare, the VA scandal, the Taliban 5 swap, or the economy — all of which feed into the increasing consensus that Obama has lost control and hasn’t the leadership skills to get it back.

The conventional “wisdom” is generous. The more-likely alternative is frightening.

Steve Eggleston on June 24, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Obama raises the white flag on his good war…Afghanistan….

But the bad war that Obama took credit for on ending…

continues…

What as guy this Obama is…

Electrongod on June 24, 2014 at 8:24 AM

“Your Obama sticker might as well say I’m a Dumbass”

ConstantineXI on June 24, 2014 at 8:09 AM

Good one.

Doughboy on June 24, 2014 at 8:20 AM

Because they work so hard to convince us of that, I am doubtful.

dogsoldier on June 24, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Number of f**ks given by his dark-skinned brethren, his camrades in the academia, and his faithful cohorts in the media: zero.

Rix on June 24, 2014 at 8:29 AM

I don’t think he wants to be. He wants to party, enjoy the perks and only focus on his “pet” projects.

Guy has no interest in leading this country.

gophergirl on June 24, 2014 at 8:19 AM

With Obama, it has always been about the perqs and not actually doing the job. His pet projects are all partisan outreach pandering to stupid women, gays, Hispanics, etc. Single-issue voters who like Obama don’t give a damn about the nation beyond “their issue.” As if national security or the economy are things that don’t effect the vagina-corps or other partisan group that make up the morons that make up the 40% of those polled who think Obama is doing a swell job.

Happy Nomad on June 24, 2014 at 8:29 AM

Steve Eggleston on June 24, 2014 at 8:24 AM

I agree. They are going to keep it up for two years. By then the US will be fundamentally transformed.

The limp spindled jellyfish whores in congress will do nothing until they are threatened in some direct way. As is always the case with people like them, they don’t see the train until it has already run them over.

dogsoldier on June 24, 2014 at 8:29 AM

Comprehensive fail.

forest on June 24, 2014 at 8:30 AM

Polls are universally contrived. Why do we treat them as if they are factual?

MT on June 24, 2014 at 8:30 AM

Plus he gets 10 bonus points for being a Wascally Wiberal

Brock Robamney on June 24, 2014 at 8:34 AM

Plus he gets 10 bonus points for being a Wascally Wiberal

Brock Robamney on June 24, 2014 at 8:34 AM

And 20 points for being black.

Happy Nomad on June 24, 2014 at 8:38 AM

He can’t wait for another 9/11.

docflash on June 24, 2014 at 8:40 AM

Comprehensive fail.

forest on June 24, 2014 at 8:30 AM

Not quite yet but that is the current trajectory.

Can you imagine the lazy stupid bastard leading the nation in the wake of the 9/11/01 atrocities. First thing he would do is deploy the EPA to NYC and the Pentagon to start issuing fines for excessive air contamination. Then he’d direct that only union members could respond to the crisis. And, of course, it wouldn’t be terrorism but the largest incident of workplace violence in history.

Happy Nomad on June 24, 2014 at 8:41 AM

On the Hill, I was told that Obama’s numbers have been 5% lower than the public polls show. Last week I talked to a senior Democratic Congressman who said Obama’s numbers were dropping vertically. I asked him if he was retiring after this term. His answer was,(by my memory) only after I bury that SOB. More and more hate for Obama and his administration, among the Democratic caucus is coming out in the open. But because the situation on Capital Hill changes from day to day, it is hard to sometimes get a feeling for what is happening. So as always, take this post with a large(VERY) grain of salt.

flackcatcher on June 24, 2014 at 8:58 AM

flackcatcher on June 24, 2014 at 8:58 AM

I can tell you many GOP congressmen like his policies but do not want to take the heat for implementing them, so they are happy when Obama writes the executive orders and as a result takes all the blame.

Brock Robamney on June 24, 2014 at 9:04 AM

Polls are universally contrived. Why do we treat them as if they are factual?

MT on June 24, 2014 at 8:30 AM

We should not. You are correct they are contrived and dishonest. THAT is what people need to know.

dogsoldier on June 24, 2014 at 9:23 AM

You mean people are finally waking up?

So in reality he’s tanking hard. No doubt the sample on this poll is D+20 or something.

dogsoldier on June 24, 2014 at 8:06 AM

My thoughts exactly.

formwiz on June 24, 2014 at 10:42 AM

Obama hits new low on Iraq in new WaPo/ABC poll

…so it’s really 20 points lower!

JugEarsButtHurt on June 24, 2014 at 11:08 AM

He’s a lame duck. What difference at this point does it make? (Sarcasm off now.)

COgirl on June 24, 2014 at 11:38 AM

Dork.

John the Libertarian on June 24, 2014 at 11:49 AM

Affected fools

Schadenfreude on June 24, 2014 at 12:28 PM

Only Republicans have a majority in support of air strikes, while men (54/40) and women (38/52) are almost diametrically opposite on the option.

This is the Cannae Syndrome which impacts men more than women.

The Romans had been successfully employing the Fabian strategy against Hannibal, after his great victories when he came out of the Alps, but due to political pressure and testosterone gone wild decided it would be cool to send a massive army out to confront Hannibal. The two armies collided at Cannae.

Men have a major weakness. Men sometimes assume doing something, no matter how idiotic it is, is better than doing nothing.

William Eaton on June 24, 2014 at 2:52 PM

A better indicator of Obama’s standing and Democratic party fortunes can be found at Gallup, where Obama is now 15 points underwater at 40/55 in the three-day average from their daily polling. Just two weeks ago, that was at 46/47.

I can’t figure out why Rasmussen has consistently shown approval ratings for Obama 7 or so percent better than what the other polls show. Does anyone have an explanation for that? Wasn’t Rasmussen the most accurate (in terms of projecting the actual election results) for the last several elections?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

jim56 on June 24, 2014 at 3:35 PM

How did they average 40 and 13 and get 42?

TallDave on June 24, 2014 at 10:19 PM

Oops 40 was for indies. Carry on!

TallDave on June 24, 2014 at 10:20 PM