NPR’s new poll of battleground states brutal for Democrats

posted at 4:01 pm on June 19, 2014 by Guy Benson

You already know how the national polling looks, but those numbers include the opinions of many Americans whose votes will have zero impact on the much-watched battle for control of the Senate. NPR clears out New Yorkers, Californians and Texans (among others) from its sample, focusing instead on the following 12 states: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina and West Virginia. A look at the results, bearing in mind that presidential approval rating has historically been the single most significant variable in midterm election cycles:

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 11.37.57 AM

That would be (38/58) overall, including an abysmal (33/63) among independents. On the generic ballot — a measure on which Republicans traditionally struggle — the GOP holds a three-point lead (46/43), buoyed by an eight-point advantage with indies.  But it’s the ‘issue trust‘ questions, that must really worry Barack Obama’s party:

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 11.44.34 AM

A four point Republican lead on healthcare (an issue Democrats have historically dominated — gee, what changed?), a tie on protecting the middle class (that’s a catastrophe for Democrats), and a double-digit GOP edge on America’s dominant number one issue.  Americans remain “highly anxious” about the US economy, political handicapper Charlie Cook writes today, and voters in battleground states appear poised to place the blame on the president’s party.  Conventional wisdom holds that bread-and-butter issues will carry the day in the fall, but I’d wager that voters are currently more attuned to foreign affairs than they’ve been in years, due in large part to the Bergdahl/Taliban swap and Iraq’s head-spinning descent into jihadi hell.  Which party do battleground state voters trust more on foreign policy?  Blowout:

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 11.56.23 AM

Democrats seized an advantage on this question late in the Bush years, when the electorate abandoned Republican foreign policy in droves.  After six years of Barack Obama, the tables have turned again.

Exit question (Allahpundit ™): Despite the remarkably favorable electoral environment in which the GOP finds itself, polling averages in key Senate races still suggest that netting the requisite six seats to regain control is no gimme.  If Republicans end up failing to win the Senate in this year, then what?  As our esteemed colleague might say, dude, I’m nervous.


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Bmore

Schadenfreude on June 19, 2014 at 10:57 PM

Another claim with no meat.

BTW I enjoyed Ed’s major beat down on your tiresome bullshite arse yesterday. It was sweet.

CW on June 19, 2014 at 6:44 PM

CW, can you post a link to that libdumbanddie beat down? I’d love to read it.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on June 20, 2014 at 9:12 AM

Lib is right in that the individual Senate race polls are not nearly as bad for the Dems as the latest national surveys.

Here in WI, there is a legit chance that Gov Walker loses in Nov to Mary Burke.

mypalfish on June 20, 2014 at 9:23 AM

I would submit the GOP does not care about open borders, healthcare, the Vets, our budget, the debt, criminality in the IRS, Benghazi, etc.

Starlink on June 19, 2014 at 4:18 PM

This has been my nagging concern for some time. I think Congress is aware that they’ve destroyed this country.

They’re just scuttling whatever they can before the gunwalls go below the waterline.

Tsar of Earth on June 20, 2014 at 9:33 AM

You are right to be nervous. It’s very likely that a good number of Conservatives will return the favor and tell the GOPe to pound sand on election day.
RJL on June 19, 2014 at 10:36 PM

I will do just that; I’m voting for my rep to keep his seat–he’s a conservative tea-party sort. I’m voting for the challenger in the state Senate race–also a conservative tea-party candidate. The current Senator, an incumbent who is a progressive who calls himself a Republican may win the primary in August, but he will NOT get my vote in November.

And, that is how I intend to vote from now on; the GOP has morphed into the Progressive Republican Party, and I will no longer participate in keeping it in power. I hope–and I believe–there are more of me out there than the Progressive Republican Party is willing to admit.

If we don’t stop giving them power, this country is toast.

mountainaires on June 20, 2014 at 9:51 AM


mypalfish on June 20, 2014 at 9:23 AM

That may be true, but most voters in WI are stupid, too.

HomeoftheBrave on June 20, 2014 at 9:53 AM

That may be true, but most voters in WI are stupid, too.

HomeoftheBrave on June 20, 2014 at 9:53 AM

There are two groups of WI voters. In off-year elections, the electorate is pretty decent. However, when you get to Presidential years, it becomes impossible for any Conservative to win a statewide contest. That’s why I’m surprised Walker is struggling so badly now.

mypalfish on June 20, 2014 at 10:02 AM

Walker may lose here. The national MSM is trying to bring him down with the implication he’s about to be indicting in a case thrown out by a federal judge. Will be interesting to see if the prosecutors proceed in defiance of the federal judge and the federal appellate court (after all, we’re Democrats, we don’t have to obey the law) and deliver an October surprise indictment of Walker right before the election. His opponent is an empty suit who can barely put words together to make a coherent thought.

pdigaudio on June 20, 2014 at 10:22 AM

Obama is very bad but our country has been in much worse, War of 1812 (almost got occupied by Britain again), Civil War (the Union may have ceased to exist), the Great Depression (far surpasses any economic troubles we have seen in our life time unless you actually lived during the Great Depression), WW II (fighting very powerful evil forces that the world have not seen before), the 1960′s/Vietnam (social upheaval vastly exceeded anything we see now) etc.. … Even when it comes to President he is not the worst in my opinion. I rank FDR, LBJ, and Buchanan ahead of him… He is certainly by far the most incompetent President ever, also the most immature, the laziest, the most partisan, and the weakest President ever and by far… However in a way his extreme incompetency and laziness (I do not buy the evil genius crap about him) may have helped us indirectly as he failed very badly in implementing a lot of his destructive agenda, imagine if this idiot has the brains of FDR or LBJ then we would have been in much bigger troubles…

mnjg on June 19, 2014 at 4:56 PM

I agree with everything you say except Obama is the worst President this country has ever had. But Obama is only a symptom of what’s wrong with this country, we have an electorate that elected him twice. Ain’t no over coming that.

Kat_man on June 20, 2014 at 10:29 AM


Kat_man on June 20, 2014 at 10:29 AM

I’m really starting to wonder about all of this. The polls and the press seem to continue to cushion these traitors and portray them as acceptable. Voting practices have been odd for some time now, as well. Could it be that this is corruption, blue smoke, and bull shiite?

The coming revolt will help clear all that up.

HomeoftheBrave on June 20, 2014 at 11:01 AM

HomeoftheBrave on June 20, 2014 at 11:01 AM

When this all goes to hell, I’m going to start looking for the MSM, they need to be held accountable.

Kat_man on June 20, 2014 at 11:30 AM

It’s worth recalling how the Dems used prosecution as a political weapon against Tom DeLay to run him out of office, harassing him for years until he was exonerated. More importantly, they achieved their 60th vote to pass ObummerCare by ponying up false charges against Alaska’s Stevens just prior to re-election.

Wiki:

In 2008, Stevens was embroiled in a federal corruption trial as he ran for re-election to the Senate. He was found guilty, and eight days later was narrowly defeated at the polls.[5] Stevens is the most senior U.S. Senator to have ever lost a reelection bid. However, prior to sentencing, the indictment was dismissed—effectively vacating the conviction—when a Justice Department probe found evidence of gross prosecutorial misconduct.[6]

They’re trying to take out Walker the same way. This isn’t their first attempt to stop him via false prosecution.

Toocon on June 20, 2014 at 11:38 AM

Exit question (Allahpundit ™): Despite the remarkably favorable electoral environment in which the GOP finds itself, polling averages in key Senate races still suggest that netting the requisite six seats to regain control is no gimme. If Republicans end up failing to win the Senate in this year, then what? As our esteemed colleague might say, dude, I’m nervous.

I’m not nervous. I predict a pick-up of ten seats. Recent mid-term Senate elections have often had the property of the winning side doing even better than seems rational. Given how awful the Obama administration is doing, I expect this to be the case in this election. On the other hand, we should never, ever take anything for granted.

thuja on June 20, 2014 at 12:15 PM

polling averages in key Senate races still suggest that netting the requisite six seats to regain control is no gimme.

The abortion-obsessed types will mess it up.

They are dependable that way. The media loves them.

Moesart on June 20, 2014 at 1:06 PM

Answering a poll is easy…as a matter of fact, as easy as sitting out an election — after the ideals you hold to have been vilified by your party leaders and there is more aggressive campaigning in the primary against candidates you support than in the general against a candidate/party you oppose!

The GOPe has plenty of time to screw this particular pooch…much like the last few.

socalcon on June 20, 2014 at 6:06 PM

The abortion-obsessed types will mess it up.

They are dependable that way. The media loves them.

Moesart on June 20, 2014 at 1:06 PM

And sure as shooting, the politicians from the right will show their lack of skill in uniting the party…

socalcon on June 20, 2014 at 6:07 PM

Walker is not going to lose in November. His biggest headache is to finesse the issue of not completing his term to run for prez

matthew8787 on June 20, 2014 at 8:15 PM

Despite the remarkably favorable electoral environment in which the GOP finds itself, polling averages in key Senate races still suggest that netting the requisite six seats to regain control is no gimme.

This NPR poll is using likely voters, the others showing closer races are not and are likely gamed like most early cycle Democrat media polls.

Bart DePalma on June 21, 2014 at 9:01 AM

I am not sure elections even matter anymore. Democrats own the media. As soon as there are Republicans to blame for real it will just get worse.

As long as the media hides and covers Democrat corruption, and keeps up the talking points about both parties being the same. There can be no real improvement.

The part of society that we must take control of is the media.

No truth gets to the public until it is so bad that nothing can be fixed.

petunia on June 21, 2014 at 6:53 PM

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