The only poll that matters …

posted at 8:01 am on June 11, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The axiom is so often used to explain away accurate but embarrassing poll results that it sounds too cliché to use it in most cases, but it’s true — the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. Eric Cantor proved that last night, much to his chagrin, after his campaign bragged last week about an internal poll showing him up 34 points against his primary challenger, Dave Brat. Despite being outspent 25:1 in the primary — that’s not a typo, but twenty-five to one — Brat prevailed by beating Cantor by eleven points in an unusually high turnout.

So … what happened? John Avlon writes that the Tea Party that Cantor encouraged came back to bite him, and that the primary process itself is to blame:

First-time candidate and full-time economics professor Dave Brat decisively defeated the consummate pol by a 55 to 45 margin. His secret? Run hard to Cantor’s right on immigration and other hot button issues while boasting the support of talk-radio favorites like Mark Levin and Ann Coulter.

But don’t give the TeaVangelist team too much credit for strategic genius. The key factor in this upset is a 12% voter turnout—meaning that 6.1% of the local electorate could make a majority. This is a paradise for activists and ideologues—Main Street voters, not so much.

No one seriously doubts whether Cantor could have won a general election in his Virginia district. This is purely a numbers game. An unrepresentative turnout makes for an unrepresentative result. And for Republicans, it is perhaps the most pointed reminder of the dangerous game they’ve been playing by stoking the fires of furious conservative populism. Golem ultimately turns on its creator.

Sorry, but this is absurd. First, Cantor himself got elected through the same supposedly unrepresentative process of the primary system. Second, what would be more representative to determine a party nominee — a caucus? Living in a caucus state myself, I can assure Avlon that’s not the case; caucuses are much more prone to get hijacked by small and unrepresentative groups who are effective at organizing. Just because people don’t choose to vote in primary elections (or city elections, or judicial elections) doesn’t make them unrepresentative. All eligible voters can vote if they choose to do so, and if they don’t, that’s their business too. The winner represents that choice as well.

Also, it should be noted that turnout in this primary was actually higher than those earlier primaries that nominated Cantor (almost 20,000 more than in 2012) and were supposedly more representative — and that Cantor got fewer votes this time than in his last primary. In fact, Cantor’s pollster relied on those dynamics to explain how he got the race wrong by about 45 points in the gap:

The survey had Cantor ahead of his opponent, little-known professor David Brat, 62 percent to 28 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided, according to the Post. It polled 400 likely Republican primary voters on May 27 and 28.

It was supposed to have had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. The error, of course, was far larger. (Statistically, this is expected to happen on 1 in 20 surveys.) In the end, it undercounted Brat’s support by about 27 percentage points and overestimated Cantor’s by 17 points. The poll was widely mocked on Twitter.

In an email to National Journal, McLaughlin, whose firm has been paid nearly $75,000 by Cantor’s campaign since 2013, offered several explanations: unexpectedly high turnout, last-minute Democratic meddling, and stinging late attacks on amnesty and immigration.

“Primary turnout was 45,000 2 years ago,” McLaughlin wrote. “This time 65,000. This was an almost 50% increase in turnout.”

Translation: McLaughlin’s estimate of who was a “likely Republican” voter was way, way off the mark. But Cantor’s total number of votes still shrunk, even as the total number of primary voters went up dramatically in 2014. He secured 37,369 primary votes in 2012 and less than 29,000 this year, with 100 percent of precincts reporting.

That negates Avlon’s complaint, and McLaughlin’s other excuse, which is that the new voters may have been primarily Democrats. Virginia allows crossover voting, and Democrats did encourage their voters to do so, but it seems rather unlikely that this caused Cantor to lose votes, especially to Brat, when Democrats don’t have a marquee candidate to face Brat. (They have one of Brat’s colleagues at Randolph-Mason, Jack Trammell, as their nominee.)

The Washington Post probably comes closest to the mark on what created the problem:

Several said they believed that Cantor had mismanaged his campaign, with a strategy in which he was too aloof and his tactics too aggressive. In Virginia, some Republicans perceived him as having grown removed from his 7th Congressional District, spending too much time on national fundraising and Washington infighting.

“Cantor’s field effort was nonexistent. You didn’t see a heavy Cantor presence at Shad Planking, one of the premier Virginia GOP events, and the movers-shakers in the group he works with, YG Virginia, did not have the staff to fully compete,” said Andrew Xifos, a Virginia Republican organizer. “Brat was always an afterthought to them, even as they spent a lot of money. Central Virginia politics was changing around them and they did not see it.”

Then, some strategists said, Cantor compounded his problems with a blitz of TV ads that attacked Brat, 49. Cantor was apparently intending to bury his underfunded challenger, but the strategy backfired.

“It gave [Brat] oxygen and it gave him sympathy. It was just a tactical mistake,” a Virginia Republican strategist said. “That’s when Brat went from being a guy that die-hard tea party people had heard about to being a guy that just ordinary conservatives driving around and listening to talk radio had heard about.”

Brat only spent $40,000 on the campaign, which would have barely drawn notice had it not been for the million dollars Cantor spent in raising Brat’s profile. Another axiom might have helped Cantor in this regard — never punch down. Had Cantor spent that money on positive retail politicking in his district rather than on an air war against an unknown, the end result may well have looked like McLaughlin’s polling.

What now? Cantor had been the heir apparent to John Boehner, which is one reason why the Tea Party base took aim at him in this primary. Politico runs down the succession to the House GOP leadership, which looks a little more conservative this morning:

Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, the current No. 3 in the House, is all but certain to run for the majority leader post, GOP sources said. McCarthy’s office declined to comment on Cantor’s loss or McCarthy’s plans.

But the California Republican likely will be challenged by a member of the conservative wing of the House GOP Conference, potentially including Reps. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, Jim Jordan of Ohio or Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington.

And a full-scale war will break out for majority whip, with Scalise, McMorris Rodgers and Reps. Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) and Pete Sessions (R-Texas) all possibilities for that post.

Roskam had already started unofficially running for whip, if the job came open. A GOP aide said Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) decided to officially seek the whip job after receiving a number of calls Tuesday night from conservatives in the party urging him to run after Cantor lost.

GOP Rep. Paul Ryan is next in line for the Ways and Means Committee gavel and has said he wasn’t running for leadership, a stance he may now have to rethink.

Other leadership hopefuls could also emerge, especially among freshmen or sophomore members, although some of the most visible members those classes are running for Senate, leaving Congress or have other roles at this time. This group includes Reps. Jim Lankford (R-Okla.), who is running for Senate; Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), another Senate hopeful; Tim Griffin (R-Ark.); and Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), who is chairing the Benghazi select committee.

The final lesson comes from John Fund, who argues that this primary should teach incumbents a very valuable lesson about taking their constituencies for granted:

Many constituents of Eric Cantor felt he had ignored them for years, rarely returning home and often ignoring them on key issues ranging from expanding Medicare prescription-drug benefits to TARP bank bailouts. The frustration boiled over at a May party meeting in his district, where Cantor was booed and his ally was ousted from his post as local party chair by a tea-party insurgent. “He did one thing in Washington and then tried to confuse us as to what he did when he came back to his district,” one Republican primary voter told me. …

Primaries are often criticized for low voter turnout. But they are also expressions of the grassroots sentiments of political parties. The lesson tonight is that establishment candidates ignore their most ardent voters at their peril. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put it tonight: “The GOP establishment’s problem isn’t with the Tea Party. It’s with Republican voters.”

That, and don’t trust McLaughlin’s polling — which has a track record that should have Virginia Republicans asking how he got the job at Team Cantor in the first place.


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No more will his green sea go turn a deeper blue……

50sGuy on June 11, 2014 at 8:07 AM

One thing our ruling elites and their courtiers do not like is when outsiders interfere with their plotting and scheming. Cantor is an insider. Belt is not.

Cantor wasn’t just ANY Republican, he was one of the MOST POWERFUL MEN IN WASHINGTON DC! WHO THE F**K DO THOSE VOTERS THINK THEY ARE!

This is like a death in the royal family to our ruling elites. If the mob could take down Eric Cantor then nobody is safe!

myiq2xu on June 11, 2014 at 8:08 AM

I liked what Brat said, “Dollars don’t vote”

Buh BYE Cant-or. Good luck getting a job in this awful Obamaconomy.

ConstantineXI on June 11, 2014 at 8:08 AM

It was a warning to the GOP leadership and their cronies that they better stop even mentioning the words “immigration reform” between now and 2016(and beyond). If amnesty isn’t dead as of this morning, then the Republican Party truly does have a death wish. If Obama wishes to act unilaterally, let him. He’s already helped create a humanitarian crisis on the border, so he and his party are welcome to own this mess.

Doughboy on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Right..immigration wasn’t even mentioned in all the quotes because it had nothing to do with Cantor’s downfall..

Except everything

Sounds like someone is parroting the establishment talking points above..

celt on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Also, it should be noted that turnout in this primary was actually higher than those earlier primaries that nominated Cantor (almost 20,000 more than in 2012) and were supposedly more representative — and that Cantor got fewer votes this time than in his last primary.

Last night, the Fox News panel tried to blame low turnout, citing rains on Monday and Tuesday. What a bunch of horseshite. They should be sued for journalistic malpractice. I generally have liked Brett Baier, but he plugged that line. Meanwhile, Brit Hume went completely went off the rails talking about amnesty.

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Taxed
Enough
Already!

Galtian on June 11, 2014 at 8:11 AM

celt on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

No, it’s because I’m doing a separate post on immigration. Try to keep the paranoia bottled up for another hour or so.

Ed Morrissey on June 11, 2014 at 8:11 AM

Buh BYE Cant-or. Good luck getting a job in this awful Obamaconomy.

ConstantineXI on June 11, 2014 at 8:08 AM

A caller to Jeff Kuhner’s show this morning pointed out that Cantor will lose him ObamaCare subsidy too. Of course if he ends up “Dead Broke” then he may qualify for a hardship exemption.

At this rate there will be seven or eight of us paying the 95 bucks.

dogsoldier on June 11, 2014 at 8:12 AM

Avalon is an idiot

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:13 AM

Look at all these CHILDREN Obama has let into our Country….

/Children… My fat Aunt Harriett!

Key West Reader on June 11, 2014 at 8:13 AM

good riddance to bad rubbish.

who is next?

socalcon on June 11, 2014 at 8:14 AM

Last night, the Fox News panel tried to blame low turnout, citing rains on Monday and Tuesday. What a bunch of horseshite. They should be sued for journalistic malpractice. I generally have liked Brett Baier, but he plugged that line. Meanwhile, Brit Hume went completely went off the rails talking about amnesty.

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Brit’s bought into the BS inside the beltway that amnesty must be passed in order to appeal to Latino voters. When he apparently missed the obvious truth staring him point blank in the face. Look at what happened to Cantor merely as a result of the base’s suspicion he might help pass an amnesty bill this summer. Now imagine what the conservative base would do if a bill actually did pass. The GOP would get slaughtered at the polls.

Doughboy on June 11, 2014 at 8:15 AM

Que the Price is Right you lose riff.

Oil Can on June 11, 2014 at 8:15 AM

Sounds like someone is parroting the establishment talking points above..

celt on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Posting is a privilege, not a right.

Key West Reader on June 11, 2014 at 8:15 AM

I just wish it could have been the triple crown of Bonner, Graham, and Cantor. That would have been 9.0 political earthquake.

Oil Can on June 11, 2014 at 8:16 AM

Sounds like “let them eat cake” might not be the soundest campaign strategy.

pehrsson on June 11, 2014 at 8:16 AM

In an email to National Journal, McLaughlin, whose firm has been paid nearly $75,000 by Cantor’s campaign since 2013, offered several explanations: unexpectedly high turnout, last-minute Democratic meddling, and stinging late attacks on amnesty and immigration.

How well did appearing tied to the hip with Luis Guttierrez (sp?) make Cantor look? In a take off of the line from Jerry Maguire when Kush signs with Jerry’s competitor, “You were in the lobby with the amnesty supporter.”

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:16 AM

I liked what Brat said, “Dollars don’t vote”

Buh BYE Cant-or. Good luck getting a job in this awful Obamaconomy.

ConstantineXI on June 11, 2014 at 8:08 AM

I’m sure he will land on his feet with some job from a friend he helped with our money..

wifarmboy on June 11, 2014 at 8:16 AM

That, and don’t trust McLaughlin’s polling — which has a track record that should have Virginia Republicans asking how he got the job at Team Cantor in the first place.

I’m shocked that there is a pollster less accurate than John Zombie… er, ‘Zogby.’

Myron Falwell on June 11, 2014 at 8:18 AM

Last night, the Fox News panel tried to blame low turnout, citing rains on Monday and Tuesday. What a bunch of horseshite. They should be sued for journalistic malpractice. I generally have liked Brett Baier, but he plugged that line. Meanwhile, Brit Hume went completely went off the rails talking about amnesty.

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Their whole idea of conventional wisdom has been destroyed, poor things. They will have to adjust. They have been spouting the idea that the Repubs have to be inclusive and move to the left in order to win and they were wrong just as we have been trying to tell them.

crankyoldlady on June 11, 2014 at 8:18 AM

If this were a competitive district, I might be worried right now. Thankfully, it’s not. It’s nice to see a clean primary, especially of a Republican who’s far too cozy with the amnesty crowd and their enablers in Congress. Nobody’s madder than the traitorous Luis Guitierrez right now, I’d wager.

Eric Cantor was a stand-up guy circa 2009, when the GOP was out of power. Shame that he got so thoroughly corrupted by the Washington power machine. Congratulations in advance to Brat.

KingGold on June 11, 2014 at 8:18 AM

They’ll say anything except what really happened. Voters have had enough

skeeterbite on June 11, 2014 at 8:18 AM

I’m now taking bets on whether the NRCC and Cantor endorse the Rat or merely torpedo Brat. As we saw in Indiana, it is no longer enough to simply shun the conservative primary winner.

Steve Eggleston on June 11, 2014 at 8:19 AM

No, it’s because I’m doing a separate post on immigration. Try to keep the paranoia bottled up for another hour or so.
Ed Morrissey on June 11, 2014 at 8:11 AM

Ed, you sound like a condescending old coot.

socalcon on June 11, 2014 at 8:19 AM

Right..immigration wasn’t even mentioned in all the quotes because it had nothing to do with Cantor’s downfall..

Except everything

Sounds like someone is parroting the establishment talking points above..

celt on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

Hitting the bottle a little early today are we?

You want every post to cover every topic?

We have all day fella…relax, have another drink, you aren’t going to work anyway…

right2bright on June 11, 2014 at 8:20 AM

My take :

kingsjester on June 11, 2014 at 8:21 AM

Ed, you sound like a condescending old coot.

socalcon on June 11, 2014 at 8:19 AM

How can a post like that “sound”?

Good grief…touchy, touchy…calm down boys, take a recess…get up and walk away from the computer.

It’s a beautiful day, or go down and have a drink with your friend celt…

right2bright on June 11, 2014 at 8:21 AM

Fundraising in DC on the night of your primary tells a lot about his priorities

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:22 AM


From Brat’s 23-year-old campaign manager:

On how Cantor’s negative ads affected Brat’s win:
“It was a huge part. We just harnessed it. You just stay positive and you tell the truth. You stay factual, you don’t get mean, you don’t get nasty. As Dave said at the 7th District convention, ‘I’m not running against Eric Cantor as a person, I’m running against Eric Cantor on policy, it’s nothing personal.’ And that’s the truth.”

Brat on June 11, 2014 at 8:23 AM

I liked what Brat said, “Dollars don’t vote”

Buh BYE Cant-or. Good luck getting a job in this awful Obamaconomy.

ConstantineXI on June 11, 2014 at 8:08 AM

I’m sure he will land on his feet with some job from a friend he helped with our money..

wifarmboy on June 11, 2014 at 8:16 AM

All this means for Cantor is a bigger, fancier house with a lobbyists salary…

eski502 on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Nativism is alive and well in the GOP, and not just in the “deep south.” Not sure how relying exclusively on paranoid white voters is going to keep the GOP a viable party in the longterm. It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo, but won’t spend time and energy organizing unions that have historically proven to increase wages. You’ve been sold supply side economics for 4 decades now, why hasn’t it increased wages in “right to work” states? I know, i know, once *all* the “illegals” are gone, *then* the trickle down will happen, right?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Steve I hope they are not that stupid not to rally behind brat

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:25 AM

Ah, the race-baiting racist checks in!

CurtZHP on June 11, 2014 at 8:25 AM

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Kleenex?

kingsjester on June 11, 2014 at 8:26 AM

But the California Republican likely will be challenged by a member of the conservative wing of the House GOP Conference, potentially including Reps. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, Jim Jordan of Ohio or Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington.

McMorris Rodgers? A conservative? Isnt that the woman who publicly announced that Republicans should reform Obamacare instead of repealing it?

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:26 AM

What can you say?

Evi L. Bloggerlady on June 11, 2014 at 8:27 AM

One more time. (darn phone).
My take.

kingsjester on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

It’s really misleading to call this a “tea party” victory. None of the major tea party groups endorsed Brat or got involved with his campaign. He got a lot of help from some local tea party groups who had zero funding – but provided a lot of shoe leather for him. It was a 100% grassroots effort.

TarheelBen on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Kleenex?

kingsjester on June 11, 2014 at 8:26 AM

He just watched the democrat plantation get considerably smaller.

CurtZHP on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

A caller to Jeff Kuhner’s show this morning pointed out that Cantor will lose him ObamaCare subsidy too. Of course if he ends up “Dead Broke” then he may qualify for a hardship exemption.

At this rate there will be seven or eight of us paying the 95 bucks.

dogsoldier on June 11, 2014 at 8:12 AM

Don’t spend too many of your tears on Cantor’s post-congress “struggle.” He probably already has a job lined up with some K Street lobby group — where he’ll make millions selling his influence and trading on the connections he made during his congressional career. Meanwhile, doesn’t his wife work for Goldman Sachs? I bet they give their execs very generous health benefits, and the coverage doubtless includes the spouse and kiddies.

Cantor will be “broke” in the same way that the post-WH Clintons were — leaving with just the clothes on their backs, vans filled with stolen WH antiques, and $20 million+ in book contracts.

AZCoyote on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

I have a big problem with illegal immigration: It violates the rule of law. Without the rule of law, we become a banana republic.

Get it?

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:29 AM

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Explain this: Do these men look like “little brown children to you?

Seriously, Lib. This is the truth in your face. No offense, but how can you defend this humanitarian crisis created by your SCOAMF?

Key West Reader on June 11, 2014 at 8:29 AM

Who wants to ReWrite™ the incoherent drivel that spewed from the enslaved one’s keyboard?

Steve Eggleston on June 11, 2014 at 8:29 AM

Get it?

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:29 AM

No, race-baiter doesn’t get it. Never has. Never will.

CurtZHP on June 11, 2014 at 8:30 AM

Progressives damage their brand, then they just replace them with the same product with a different packaging.

…..and so it will be with the gop leadership team. If you’re on it, you’re probably a Big government, status quo Progressive.

#loathable

PappyD61 on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

Lesson – if you don’t have a ground game out and established early, you lose.

Money doesn’t matter.

People showing up at the polls to vote for you, matters.

That requires a ground game: going door to door weeks ahead of time, if not a month or more, establishing the campaign and its offices and explaining to people why it is important to vote for you. Hitting local hotspots to kiss babies, give talks and otherwise get on local media is very important… and at the National level you need people who do represent the candidate well if you can’t get the candidate to show up in-person.

Forget the commercials and save them for the glowing spots of a candidate with their family or sitting on a desk with a dark background and American flag behind it. Get out, meet people, spread the word, and LISTEN to what people ask you so that you, as a candidate, know how to craft your message to them.

Attack ads will not put you over the line and the best attack ads are the humorous ones, so get someone with a light touch on the offensive on the air so that YOU aren’t offensive on the air.

Remember voters who show up to the polls get counted.

Don’t count on pollsters.

ajacksonian on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:26 AM

And what’s wrong with saying that? It’s absolutely impossible to repeal Obamacare. The Supreme Court, as well as blowing the 2012 Senate elections, ensured that outcome. To say otherwise is delusional talk pitched by the money-grubbing self-proclaimed Tea Party PACs.

KingGold on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

Nativism is alive and well in the GOP, and not just in the “deep south.”

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

I always laugh when leftwingers use “nativism” or “nativist” perjoratively. The common sense idea that politicians are supposed to serve the citizenry that elects them and not the citizenry of another country seems to be a concept utterly foreign to them (no pun intended).

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

I hope Brat’s 23-year-old campaign manager keeps that refreshing outlook and doesn’t get corrupted by DC.

crankyoldlady on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

McMorris Rodgers? A conservative? Isnt that the woman who publicly announced that Republicans should reform Obamacare instead of repealing it?

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:26 AM

She’s an amnesty shill, too. I guess that we’re stuck with her, but I don’t want to see her going any further in GOP leadership.

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Hey “slave left for dead”. Just because you checked your privilege doesn’t mean I’m not cool with mine

skeeterbite on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

Unlike just about every commenter so far, I live in VA07 district. Cantor was invisible = Mistake #1. But attacking Brat by name was his biggest mistake. It was unseemly and poorly done to boot.

I’ll be honest that I never saw this coming myself but I say good riddance to pro-amnesty, corporatist Republicans.

Hand me my pitchfork!

bobnox on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo…

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

No stupid. To keep it legal. Which in your case, laws are like rubber, to be molded and flexed to do your bidding, instead of following the letter of the law.

I hardly know any conservatives who don’t support legal immigration.

Walter L. Newton on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

I have a big problem with illegal immigration: It violates the rule of law. Without the rule of law, we become a banana republic.

Get it?

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:29 AM

Sure. Which is why you folks are really going after the thousands of grad students all over the nation who have over extended their work Visas.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

Steve I hope they are not that stupid not to rally behind brat

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:25 AM

I’ve seen the torpedoing happen no less than 3 times (and no, Akin and McDonnell don’t count).

Steve Eggleston on June 11, 2014 at 8:33 AM

Try to keep the paranoia bottled up for another hour or so.

Ed Morrissey on June 11, 2014 at 8:11 AM

Asking a lot of this crew, ain’t ya, Cap’n…?

JohnGalt23 on June 11, 2014 at 8:33 AM

I missed all this last night (got to see Buddy Guy in Falls Church, amazing!), but what a thing to wake up to. As I said in the other thread, I found the cure for a whiskey hangover…RINO defeat!!

hollygolightly on June 11, 2014 at 8:33 AM

celt on June 11, 2014 at 8:10 AM

No, it’s because I’m doing a separate post on immigration. Try to keep the paranoia bottled up for another hour or so.

Ed Morrissey on June 11, 2014 at 8:11 AM

Heh.

ToddPA on June 11, 2014 at 8:34 AM

And what’s wrong with saying that? It’s absolutely impossible to repeal Obamacare. The Supreme Court, as well as blowing the 2012 Senate elections, ensured that outcome. To say otherwise is delusional talk pitched by the money-grubbing self-proclaimed Tea Party PACs.

KingGold on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

ObamaCare MUST be repealed. On the heels of the revelations of what has gone on at the VA there is no other choice than to run on repeal and replace.

The VA is “socialized healthcare”. So is ObamaCare.

Key West Reader on June 11, 2014 at 8:34 AM

Sure. Which is why you folks are really going after the thousands of grad students all over the nation who have over extended their work Visas.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

When we catch them, I’d be happy to send their arse home. How about we do the same with all the MS-13 thugs pouring over our border at the invitation of the Thug-in-Chief…?

JohnGalt23 on June 11, 2014 at 8:34 AM

No one seriously doubts whether Cantor could have won a general election in his Virginia district. This is purely a numbers game. An unrepresentative turnout makes for an unrepresentative result. And for Republicans, it is perhaps the most pointed reminder of the dangerous game they’ve been playing by stoking the fires of furious conservative populism. Golem ultimately turns on its creator.

that is some incredibly stupid analysis.

The GOP didn’t “stoke” anti-amnesty – it fights for amnesty at every turn.

And, the GOP’s base has been fighting the GOP for years. So the idea that the GOP “stoked” “extremism” and such “extremism” bit the GOP is nonsense.

The GOP has been fighting the Tea Party and conservatives for years.

And I love how they talk about how there is low voter turnout in primaries meaning the results are not representative. Every incumbent in congress won a primary. That means each one of them is “not representative” according to this logic.

Such idiocy. Yes, it is the base that turns out for primaries. But the real lesson here is that if you betray the base over and over again, you may lose a primary. that has always been true.

but, we can’t say that. That wouldn’t fit our narrative where the base is crazy and the liberals are right.

Monkeytoe on June 11, 2014 at 8:34 AM

And what’s wrong with saying that? It’s absolutely impossible to repeal Obamacare. The Supreme Court, as well as blowing the 2012 Senate elections, ensured that outcome. To say otherwise is delusional talk pitched by the money-grubbing self-proclaimed Tea Party PACs.

KingGold on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

Yeah, you keep telling yourself that, sonny. I guess even a brave little party-bot needs to rationalize the constant failures and sell-outs of the Republican leadership at some point.

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:35 AM

A government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Government isn’t about the beltway, cocktail parties and getting on Meet the Press. It’s about people and their lives. It’s about listening to the people you work for.

Cantor forgot that very simple message and he paid for it last night.

gophergirl on June 11, 2014 at 8:35 AM

One point you’ve missed Ed is that amongst other things, Cantor (and Congress for that matter) is simply uninspiring. That should worry all Republicans.

Most recently, races have been decided based on turnout. One could reasonably argue it is a big factor in the President’s reelection.

Republicans Party Members have simply not been inspired to vote. And with the tremendous lack of temerity elected Republicans have shown, that is only getting worse. Especially since the only fight Republicans seem to have a stomach for is one with their own party members. That’s a recipe for a coming electoral disaster.

Look at the approval polling for members of Congress. It is not much better for Republicans than Democrats. But keep attacking part members because that’s where the real fight is or something.

Marcus Traianus on June 11, 2014 at 8:36 AM

Great take KJ

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

It’s really misleading to call this a “tea party” victory. None of the major tea party groups endorsed Brat or got involved with his campaign. He got a lot of help from some local tea party groups who had zero funding – but provided a lot of shoe leather for him. It was a 100% grassroots effort.

TarheelBen on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

I realize that last night Dems were trying to cast this as a crackpot tea party win. And maybe it will continue in some quarters. But I watched Morning Joe for more than an hour this morning, and they were emphasizing that Brat got little or no support from national TP organizations. I think CNN was highlighting that last night too. The meme that the MJ crowd wanted to cite was that Cantor was out of touch with his district. That’s probably true. The MJ crowd wanted to avoid any talk of amnesty being to blame. The more I read, maybe it wasn’t the biggest factor, but it had to be on the minds of voters as they say a little reporting of the border situation.

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

Do remember that Cantor was for amnesty before he was against and then was for it again after being against it.

He did that in a week of flip-flopping and serving up warm waffles on nearly every topic.

Amazingly the people of his district don’t seem to like flip-flops as their main attire nor being served waffles at every turn.

Eric forgot to LISTEN and be a REPRESENTATIVE of his district and, instead, became an apparatchik of his party.

ajacksonian on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

Sure. Which is why you folks are really going after the thousands of grad students all over the nation who have over extended their work Visas.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

Lib. Seriously – what about AMERICAN Grad Students that cannot find jobs? Why should they yield to foreign students?

Sometimes you just have to let go of your ideology and think things through.

Key West Reader on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

Sure. Which is why you folks are really going after the thousands of grad students all over the nation who have over extended their work Visas.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

Ha! You think we wouldnt? Seriously, do we sound like fans of the leftish campus crowd to you?

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo…

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

The Congressional Budget Office has verified that so-called comprehensive immigration reform (amnesty) will further drive down middle class wages (which have decreased in every year of the Obama non-recovery) and will further increase unemployment. Minorities, here legally, will be hardest hit. Why do you hate American workers?

TarheelBen on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

12% voter turnout

unexpectedly high turnout

So, which was it, high turnout or low turnout?

Syzygy on June 11, 2014 at 8:38 AM

Thanks Steve
*sigh*

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:38 AM

Everyone here denying that this is about maintaining Anglo demographic superiority, do you even read Hot Air? I’ve read hundreds of comments which accuse “illegals” of dropping “anchor babies” so they can “get on welfare.” Or which claim that south and central Americans are “communists” who will “dumb down” the U.S. You can’t say that you haven’t read those comments. And you don’t even have to go to the fringe to hear this crap:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/06/14/191776099/immigrants-are-more-fertile-jeb-bush-says-in-reform-speech

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/republican-latinos-fight-anti-immigrant-rhetoric-texas-n17996

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2010/10/sharron-angle-defends-anti-immigration-ad-tells-hispanic-students-they-look-a-little-more-asian/

I guess my question is, why do you feel the need to cloak yourself in the chimera of “rule of law” there are a host of non-legal people in the U.S., yet the anti-immigration/nativist movement only seems to care about central and south American immigration. Why?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:39 AM

Lib. Seriously – what about AMERICAN Grad Students that cannot find jobs? Why should they yield to foreign students?

Sometimes you just have to let go of your ideology and think things through.

Key West Reader on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

But if a liberal actually thought – they would become a Republican.

gophergirl on June 11, 2014 at 8:39 AM

(Peter) Roskam had already started unofficially running for whip, if the job came open.

Um, yeah, about that… Attended one of his fundraiser talks recently, he basically says the Republicans can’t do anything against Obama right now. He sounded like he’d been neutered.

Fallon on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

Nativism is alive and well in the GOP, and not just in the “deep south.”

Racist twit sh!ts and runs? Hope not again this time. Anyway, you’re all for the illegal immigrant children that are expected to reach 90,000 in number compared to the usual 6,500 this year, right?

You DO understand the difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration, right?

Not sure how relying exclusively on paranoid white voters is going to keep the GOP a viable party in the longterm.

Irony alert. The Democrat party relies on 95%+ voting from the African American community, yet you’re going to cite more racism (shocking) with the GOP and white voters?

It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo

Again with the xenophobic hyperbole, racist tool? You’re so far gone and you don’t even know it.

but won’t spend time and energy organizing unions that have historically proven to increase wages.

Unions did wonders for GM, right? Unions are doing wonders for public sector pension funds, right?

You’ve been sold supply side economics for 4 decades now, why hasn’t it increased wages in “right to work” states?

Supply side economics works when government gets out of the way. Unfortunately, all we have seen is government getting in the way with tens of thousands of pages of new regulations that slow business.

I know, i know, once *all* the “illegals” are gone, *then* the trickle down will happen, right?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

All you know is hatred and bigotry. You’re a despicable human being.

Mark Boabaca on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

And what’s wrong with saying that? It’s absolutely impossible to repeal Obamacare. The Supreme Court, as well as blowing the 2012 Senate Presidential elections, ensured that outcome. To say otherwise is delusional talk pitched by the money-grubbing self-proclaimed Tea Party PACs.

KingGold on June 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM

ReWrite™ engaged for proper math. The moment Mitt Romney, the godfather of PlaceboCare, became the Presidential nominee, it became impossible to repeal PlaceboCare. That sent the signal that even if there had been a clean sweep, there would be no meaningful action taken to dismantle it.

The fact that Romney ran a campaign all-but-guaranteed to lose meant that even had the Republicans taken the Senate and were of one mind to actually repeal PlaceboCare, they would have needed an impossible 2/3rds of both Houses of Congress to do so.

Steve Eggleston on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

Since this has turned into another race tantrum by our trolls – suppose I should get to work

Later

gophergirl on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

Ha! You think we wouldnt? Seriously, do we sound like fans of the leftish campus crowd to you?

Red Widow on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

The point is that you don’t. You go after central and south Americans, and nearly no other group of undocumented workers.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

cmsinaz on June 11, 2014 at 8:37 AM

Thank you, ma’am.

The current meme is that Ben “Cooter” Jones had Democrats vote for Brat.

What Cantor Supporters forget is the fact that Democrats voted for Reagan, also. My parents did.

kingsjester on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo…

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

I did not know Obeying and Enforcing Laws was Race based.

We have two ladies in our Office who emigrated here..
One from India, who’s Indian, and one from South Africa
who is Black. They are both good employees, who are also
great human beings….they ASSIMILATED to our culture,
and LAWS. BTW, they followed our immigration Laws in coming here.

They BOTH are more aggressive in their immigration stance
than I…..they believe LAWS should be Obeyed and Enforced.

Maybe I’ll show them your post….

ToddPA on June 11, 2014 at 8:41 AM

Everyone here denying that this is about maintaining Anglo demographic superiority, do you even read Hot Air?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:39 AM

Don’t care about Anglo demographic superiority. I care about greasy, lying criminal thugs, being invited to pollute this land by the greasy, lying Thug-in-Chief…

JohnGalt23 on June 11, 2014 at 8:41 AM

Nativism is alive and well in the GOP, and not just in the “deep south.” Not sure how relying exclusively on paranoid white voters is going to keep the GOP a viable party in the longterm. It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo, but won’t spend time and energy organizing unions that have historically proven to increase wages. You’ve been sold supply side economics for 4 decades now, why hasn’t it increased wages in “right to work” states? I know, i know, once *all* the “illegals” are gone, *then* the trickle down will happen, right?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

So much stupid packed into such a small space. the straw-man “racism” argument. The ignoring all arguments about why incentivizing illegal immigration is bad (including the recent reports of tens of thousands of new minor illegals flooding into the U.S. merely because of the promise of amnesty). The lie about unions. The lack of knowledge about economics.

It’s as if you have no education at all – which I can believe based on other comments you have made.

too funny.

“Here’s what America needs to do – have no borders, unionize everyone, and socialism!!! That will solve all our problems!!!”

Monkeytoe on June 11, 2014 at 8:41 AM

It’s really misleading to call this a “tea party” victory. … It was a 100% grassroots effort.

TarheelBen on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

Notwithstanding the claims of Nancy Pelosi and her ilk, the tea party movement is a grassroots effort.

Syzygy on June 11, 2014 at 8:42 AM

Since this has turned into another race tantrum by our trolls – suppose I should get to work

Later

gophergirl on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

That you don’t/won’t/can’t realize that last night was a “race tantrum” is very sad…

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:42 AM

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

The damn needle is skipping again.

mankai on June 11, 2014 at 8:43 AM

The troll sure is butt-hurt this morning. Rough night?

CurtZHP on June 11, 2014 at 8:43 AM

The point is that you don’t. You go after central and south Americans, and nearly no other group of undocumented workers.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:40 AM

Well, when Europe or Africa starts sending their worst thugs to walk into the US, I’ll be concerned about them.

Until then, I’ll worry about the thugs south of our border being sent to walk into the US at the invitation of the greasy, lying Thug-in-Chief…

JohnGalt23 on June 11, 2014 at 8:43 AM

Everyone here denying that this is about maintaining Anglo demographic superiority, do you even read Hot Air?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:39 AM

Don’t care about Anglo demographic superiority. I care about greasy, lying criminal thugs, being invited to pollute this land by the greasy, lying Thug-in-Chief…

JohnGalt23 on June 11, 2014 at 8:41 AM

don’t bother. Libfree has never had an honest debate about anything. Like all lefties, because he cannot argue facts or logic, he will simply shout “racist” over and over again and ignore anything else you say or any facts you put forth.

Expecting libfree to have an intellectual or intellectually honest thought is a fool’s errand.

Monkeytoe on June 11, 2014 at 8:43 AM

Don’t care about Anglo demographic superiority.

OK.

I care about greasy, lying criminal thugs, being invited to pollute this land by the greasy, lying Thug-in-Chief…

JohnGalt23 on June 11, 2014 at 8:41 AM

Well what better way to signal this isn’t about race than by using the most race-baity language of all time…

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:44 AM

The perfesser threw out his first BS post in order to disrupt this Brat Victory Thread, because he is scared spitless that another 2010 is coming fast.

kingsjester on June 11, 2014 at 8:45 AM

Accusing us of having a “race tantrum” is especially amusing, since he’s the one who mentioned race to begin with. It’s the first and only thing he thinks about. Skin color is probably the first thing on his mind when he buys a new toothbrush.

CurtZHP on June 11, 2014 at 8:46 AM

This is the start of the end for the Republican Party it will split between its conservative and moderate factions and the result will be a dominant Democrat Party that will win every election and increase federal power and institute absolute Socialism/Communism. The only hope is that these factions will some how come together and present a united front. But I doubt it.This is the same kind of division that prevented Romney from winning the presidency.The right wing dumps the candidate if it does not get its way.Just like they dumped Romney. Now look what we have, a tyrant in the White House. This is bad for America.

Redford on June 11, 2014 at 8:46 AM

Nativism is alive and well in the GOP, and not just in the “deep south.” Not sure how relying exclusively on paranoid white voters is going to keep the GOP a viable party in the longterm. It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo, but won’t spend time and energy organizing unions that have historically proven to increase wages. You’ve been sold supply side economics for 4 decades now, why hasn’t it increased wages in “right to work” states? I know, i know, once *all* the “illegals” are gone, *then* the trickle down will happen, right?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Sometimes you provide value and progressive/left-wing insight into these posts. This is definitely not one of those times.

None of what you posted has anything to do with the defeat of Cantor.

A middle aged white guy beat a middle aged white guy in a primary with no exit polling. The middle aged white guy will run against another middle aged white guy in the general election.

The difference between what you wrote and from what happened and what Ed posted is quite the non-sequitur.

You have created a caricature of the position of people who just ousted the sitting House majority leader and then you slayed that mighty dragon.

airupthere on June 11, 2014 at 8:46 AM

Contessa Brewer is sharpening her, “Do you have a degree in economics?” attack for Brat.

mankai on June 11, 2014 at 8:46 AM

Sure. Which is why you folks are really going after the thousands of grad students all over the nation who have over extended their work Visas.

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:32 AM

Whom are you talking to? My understanding is that 40% of our illegal immigration problem are expired visas. I’m on Hot Air often arguing that they had a deal with us to leave at the end. I can’t explain the non-enforcement. We had a record of them at one time. We had a name of their school or employer. I can’t understand why they are hunted down and summarily deported. They knew they were here for a short time. If they experience a life dislocation, that’s their problem.

I have repeatedly said that if you cleared out the visa overstayers–again, 40% of the problem, then deported all the criminals, and all the identity thieves and fabricators and entitlement frauds, we might have a manageable problem that some people might be willing to put on a path.

So screw you. I have consistently said that the visa overstayers need to be sent home right after all the criminals. And I hope that there’s no statute of limitations on their apprehension. For the time being, Obama controls ICE enforcement, and these kinds of manhunts and e-verify aren’t being enforced.

Blame someone else with your accusations.

BuckeyeSam on June 11, 2014 at 8:47 AM

It was a 100% grassroots effort.

TarheelBen on June 11, 2014 at 8:28 AM

That is what the real TEA party is, local and willing to do the work for the right candidates. My email inbox is full of locals excited about the TEA party win this morning. None of them belong to a national TEA party group.

♫ ♬ We dress like students, we dress like housewives,
Or in a suit and a tie…
♫ ♬

Fallon on June 11, 2014 at 8:47 AM

Nativism is alive and well in the GOP, and not just in the “deep south.” Not sure how relying exclusively on paranoid white voters is going to keep the GOP a viable party in the longterm. It is also amazing that white voters will spend money, time and energy organizing to keep the nation overwhelmingly Anglo, but won’t spend time and energy organizing unions that have historically proven to increase wages. You’ve been sold supply side economics for 4 decades now, why hasn’t it increased wages in “right to work” states? I know, i know, once *all* the “illegals” are gone, *then* the trickle down will happen, right?

libfreeordie on June 11, 2014 at 8:24 AM

Don’t talk with you mouth full of nonsense, and try to clean your plate before starting another course of shiite:

Here’s a simple question for you. Which of the founding fathers did not subscribe to the communitarian ethos Calhoun deploys to rationalize slavery? *sets sundial*

libfreeordie on August 21, 2013 at 9:30 AM

None. They weren’t nascent Commies like John C. Calhoun, and full blown Commies like you. Don’t you think you need to provide some proof for such a ridiculous smear there Mr. Calhoun? You’re a history perfesser, right?

NotCoach on August 21, 2013 at 9:36 AM

Oh dear God….hold on, give me 10 minutes.

libfreeordie on August 21, 2013 at 9:45 AM

NotCoach on June 11, 2014 at 8:48 AM

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