Polls: No damage to Obama’s job approval from VA scandal

posted at 7:31 pm on June 9, 2014 by Allahpundit

No real damage from the Bergdahl swap either, although it may be a bit too soon to judge that. It happened less than 10 days ago. Opinion might not have settled yet.

Here’s what Gallup looks like since March.

g

He was at 40/56 on March 1st. A month later, after he’d taken his victory lap for hitting seven million “sign-ups” on ObamaCare, he was back to 44/50, which is basically where he is today. Could be there was a small but significant chunk of centrist Democrats and left-leaning independents whose remaining faith in him was badly shaken by the O-Care rollout, but who stabilized once the website started working better and enrollments began flowing in. And before you say “that’s just one pollster!”, here’s what the RCP average looks like over the same period:

r

There may be a small VA/Bergdahl effect happening within the last 10 days. As you can see, O’s been bouncing around between 43-44 percent approval (52-53 percent disapproval) for the better part of three months. That little dip at the far right of the graph began on June 2nd, three days after Shinseki resigned and two days after the Bergdahl swap was completed, with the backlash to the prisoner exchange suddenly in full flower in the media. Something did cause his numbers to change — but only by a point or so either way.

Could be the stability in Obama’s numbers is a function of public despair about the intractability of VA problems. It doesn’t matter that he promised to fix the department, or that the entire premise of his presidency is that the federal government can be made to function effectively. “VA” is a byword for sclerotic bureaucracy, in which case the public may simply have decided that O can’t be blamed for not reforming something that’s unreformable. Or, to refine that, maybe he can’t be blamed as much as others: Remember, when CBS polled this, a plurality of 33 percent said Shinseki deserved most of the blame versus just 17 percent who blamed O. Shinseki’s gone now, so the perception is that the problem is “solved” — even though it’s not solved at all. That’s good enough to keep Obama’s numbers from falling off a cliff.

My pal Karl has another theory for O’s resilience, though:

Democrats have checked out, but they’re not going to abandon O five months out from a midterm election. If the abandonment comes, it’ll come next year, once Hillary has declared and they have a new de facto leader of the party. And even if Obama doesn’t fall any farther in the near term, odds are good that he’s not going to become more popular either: Politico has a piece out today tracking the numbers for every president since FDR and noting that, typically, the best you can hope for deep in your second term is stasis. When it’s that late in the game, if your numbers are moving, chances are they’re only moving downward. Which is to say, whether or not the current job approval represents O’s floor, it’s probably very close to being his ceiling.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

I think the reason democrats oppose the Pledge of Allegiance so much is it conflicts with the one they swore to their party.

Flange on June 9, 2014 at 7:35 PM

Democrats have no morals or ethic’s, Obama is a perfect fit for them. Hillary will likewise be a perfect fit for them.

oscarwilde on June 9, 2014 at 7:36 PM

The same bottom dwellers that voted for him are getting more free stuff so why shouldn’t they be happy?

LeftCoastRight on June 9, 2014 at 7:36 PM

He could be found in bed with a dead boy and he wouldn’t dip below 35%

rbj on June 9, 2014 at 7:36 PM

Most Americans know VA has been a problem forever.

weedisgood on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

Marley!

Mini-14 on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

He’s at 38% today in Reuters poll. He’s got some more room to drop.

Ta111 on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

He’s hit bottom. Stupid polls.

MT on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

More crap nobody will do anything about:

The lawmakers are demanding more information from the IRS chief after their discovery that the agency transmitted 21 disks, constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the FBI in October 2010.

“The IRS apparently considered political speech by nonprofit groups to be so troublesome that it illegally assisted federal law-enforcement officials in assembling a massive database of the lawful political speech of thousands of American citizens, weeks before the 2010 midterm elections, using confidential taxpayer information,” wrote Issa and Jordan.

http://www.wnd.com/2014/06/irs-caught-red-handed-breaking-law/?cat_orig=us

davidk on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

He could be found in bed with a dead boy and he wouldn’t dip below 35%

rbj on June 9, 2014 at 7:36 PM

Considering he just committed treason live on national television and the democrats applauded, I’m guessing that would likewise be their response.

oscarwilde on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

I do not believe the results of this poll reflect reality.

listens2glenn on June 9, 2014 at 7:39 PM

I do not believe the results of this poll reflect reality.

listens2glenn on June 9, 2014 at 7:39 PM

Thats probably because this poll isn’t designed to tell you what people think, but what they are suppose to think.

oscarwilde on June 9, 2014 at 7:41 PM

The number of brain dead Americans seems to be around 40%.

VorDaj on June 9, 2014 at 7:45 PM

Our country is in a race to the bottom.

Obama will gladly take us there.

portlandon on June 9, 2014 at 7:45 PM

I do not believe the results of this poll reflect reality.

listens2glenn on June 9, 2014 at 7:39 PM

Agreed. I cannot believe that in light of the high regard most people still have for veterans that there was not a telling drop in obama’s approval rating.

davidk on June 9, 2014 at 7:46 PM

It’s a perfect example of the Limbaugh Theorem:

- Obama didn’t know about it until he read it in the paper.
- Obama’s angry about it (whatever it happens to be).
- Obama is trying to fix it if the Republicans would let him.
- Somebody else has been president for the past six years.

TarheelBen on June 9, 2014 at 7:46 PM

Never underestimate the power of the State Run Media….

d1carter on June 9, 2014 at 7:47 PM

Seen any big stories on the VA scandal lately….?

d1carter on June 9, 2014 at 7:47 PM

Seen any interviews with the neighbors and relatives of the Bergdahls…..?

d1carter on June 9, 2014 at 7:48 PM

The scandal surrounding the Department of Veterans Affairs health care system isn’t making Americans feel more confident about ObamaCare, a just released Fox News Poll finds.

Less than a third of voters believes that the government will do a better job with ObamaCare than the VA did managing care for vets (31 percent). Over half believe it won’t (55 percent).

Meanwhile, a majority regrets ObamaCare ever passed, and more voters than not say the country is worse off under the law.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/06/09/fox-news-poll-voters-regret-obamacare-say-country-is-worse-off-under-new-law/

davidk on June 9, 2014 at 7:48 PM

Most Americans know VA has been a problem forever.

weedisgood on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

Obama made it a campaign issue and campaigned on fixing those problems. Those problems have become much, much worse under his watch.

TarheelBen on June 9, 2014 at 7:48 PM

He could be found in bed with a dead boy and he wouldn’t dip below 35%

rbj on June 9, 2014 at 7:36 PM

The nation would only wonder: is Dear Leader a Top or a Bottom?
As if that’s a real question.

Tard on June 9, 2014 at 7:49 PM

Makes sense. At least 20%+ of that are dead girl minorities and what’s left are live boy (D) True Believers.
 
Now let’s grant amnesty with voting rights so the (D)s can never lose another election.

rogerb on June 9, 2014 at 7:49 PM

Just Karl @justkarl
Follow

@allahpundit Core Dems don’t care. You’d need something blown up to Katrina magnitude to move below 40 consistently.

“Core Dems” today are the hyper-”progressive” types who think John Holdren is a wimp for only wanting to kill off 90% of the human race.

If The One were to order tanks into the streets of every American city tomorrow to “quell dissent”, they’d be demanding that the mass executions of “reactionaries” begin no later than noon. And be televised coast-to-coast.

Then they’d be demanding random machine-gunning of city blocks, to remind everyone not only “who’s the boss”, but also that said boss is not to be f**ked with.

Culminating with a city nuked as the result of a lottery, to ensure that everybody Gets The Point.

The point being that it is very unlikely that The One could ever get crazy enough to lose the support of “Core Dems”. Short of suddenly becoming a clone of Ronald Reagan.

clear ether

eon

eon on June 9, 2014 at 7:50 PM

It’s a perfect example of the Limbaugh Theorem:

- Obama didn’t know about it until he read it in the paper.
- Obama’s angry about it (whatever it happens to be).
- Obama is trying to fix it if the Republicans would let him.
- Somebody else has been president for the past six years.

TarheelBen on June 9, 2014 at 7:46 PM

http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2014/05/obama-madder-than-hell-after-accident-triggers-wwiii-2857242.html

davidk on June 9, 2014 at 7:50 PM

Obama can strangle a kitten on live TV and his numbers would stay the same. This is why this country is so screwed. People don’t care. They don’t care about what the man is doing or failing to do.

Jack_Burton on June 9, 2014 at 7:52 PM

Does the Obamaphone still have service?
Yes…

Then Forward!!!

Electrongod on June 9, 2014 at 7:54 PM

Obama could mirror the Hillside Stranglers’s exploits and the libiots would still swoon over how smoothly he choked the life out of those “right wing, racist harlots”…

bimmcorp on June 9, 2014 at 8:00 PM


LIVE NOE:

Veterans Affairs hospitals secret waiting lists allegations
24m
Live video: House Veterans’ Affairs Committee holds a hearing on data manipulation and access to VA healthcare – @NBCNews
Read more on nbcnews.com
=========================

Breaking:

Watch Live as House Committee Holds Hearing on VA Hospital Scandal

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/watch-live-house-hearing-va-data-manipulation-n126781

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 8:00 PM

Well, I just watched the CBS Evening News (don’t ask) and although VA was the top story, they managed to (a) not mention “Obama” at all; and (b) justify it by “putting it in perspective” that 57,000 appointments are out of a total of something like 6,000,000 last year (I wasn’t paying that much attention).

So, there. U.S. newsmen flying flack for libs.

Lance Corvette on June 9, 2014 at 8:00 PM

The 45% who still approve of President Obama’s job performance are highly unlikely to be Veterans, so the VA scandal doesn’t impact them.

Low Information Voters may not understand why releasing 5 guys from Gitmo is a big deal, until they start to hear explosions in their own neighborhoods.

Alas, we hit the tipping point where Low Information Voters outnumbered Informed Voters in 2012.

wren on June 9, 2014 at 8:03 PM

Core Dems don’t care. You’d need something blown up to Katrina magnitude to move below 40 consistently.

That sums it up. The Democrat base is so hyperpartisan that they will pretty much tolerate anything from their politicians as long as it doesn’t jeopardize the agenda(and as long as the subsidies and welfare gravy trains keep running).

Doughboy on June 9, 2014 at 8:03 PM

His numbers are not moving because we’re in a death spiral…the more we move left, the more idiots blame the problems caused by the leftward shift on the right…until we’re finished. We’re in late stage Byzantine Empire mode now.

AUINSC on June 9, 2014 at 8:04 PM

Now on C-SPAN 3
Veterans’ Health Care

House Veterans’ Affairs Committee Chair Jeff Miller (R-FL) holds an oversight hearing to examine manipulation of scheduling data and access to treatment. Share your comments on Facebook and Twitter using #cspanchat.

http://www.c-span.org/live/?channel=c-span-3

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 8:06 PM

Alas, we hit the tipping point where Low Information Voters outnumbered Informed Voters in 2012.

wren on June 9, 2014 at 8:03 PM

I believe that Mitt Romney referred to them as the 47%…

bimmcorp on June 9, 2014 at 8:07 PM

KWR posted this in another thread: It needs to be here as well…

For those who know me, I got the results.

Autopsy from the VA…. Constipation. The VA treats constipation with Morphine. Didja know that?

/Been drinking, not sorry, just devastated.

Key West Reader on June 9, 2014 at 4:38 PM

My husband’s last words were, “I cannot believe this it it” He was 44.

That’s all I’m going to say on this. Constipation. That’s all it was.

For ant Veterans out there, please, seek private care. Demand it. March on Washington. Whatever it takes.

Love to all.

Key West Reader on June 9, 2014 at 4:47 PM

OmahaConservative on June 9, 2014 at 8:11 PM

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree

Jamie Dupree @jamiedupree · 15m

August 2001 GAO report: “In March 2001, VA reported that 948 of its clinics had waiting times of 120 days or more”

Replied to 0 times

Jamie Dupree @jamiedupree · 25m

GAO witness notes that in 2000 & 2001, GAO told Congress of long wait times for vets http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01953.pdf

Replied to 0 times

Jamie Dupree @jamiedupree · 33m

House hearing underway on VA; currently live on C-SPAN3 http://www.c-span.org/live/?channel=c-span-3

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 8:12 PM

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 9s

#VA’s Matkovsky tells Hse cmte the 1st electronic appointment was scheduled at the VA in April of 1985…and that system “has not changed.”

Replied to 0 times

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 3m

Acting #VA IG Griffin says if there are charges or firings “it will no longer be a game & that will be the shot heard around the system”

Replied to 0 times

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 14m

#VA IG Griffin says they’ve found instances of supervisors “instructing people to change the times” for appts. Has been in contact with DoJ

Replied to 0 times

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 31m

GAO’s Draper at hrg: Non-VA care may expand capaity. But there are also pitfalls..The situation will worsen an already untenable situation.

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 48m

House Veterans’ Affairs Cmte hearing on #VA starting now.

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 8:20 PM

No surprise. King Barack has 33% in the bag. He could shit on the US Constitution at high noon on a Monday, with all major news networks watching and that 33% would give him a standing ovation.

GarandFan on June 9, 2014 at 8:25 PM

Veterans Affairs hospitals secret waiting lists allegations
2m
Senate Vets Affairs Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) formally introduce their Veterans Affairs reform bill – @ChadPergram
see original on twitter.com
===========================

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 9s

GAO’s Draper testifies there is “blind scheduling” at the VA. Appts scheduled w/o consulting the veterans. Some scheduled after the fact.

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 8:29 PM

Affirmative action in play.

CW on June 9, 2014 at 8:31 PM

- Somebody else has been president for the past six years.

TarheelBen on June 9, 2014 at 7:46 PM

And the Repubs have controlled 2/3 of the Presidency and Congress since 2007.

CW on June 9, 2014 at 8:34 PM

Results for #VA

https://twitter.com/hashtag/VA?src=hash

occupycorruptDC ‏@occupycorruptDC 3m

Waiting to die, #Obama’s #Deathlists. “#VA, more than 57K #Veterans waiting for first visit.” http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/wp/2014/06/09/va-says-more-than-57000-patients-waiting-for-first-visit/ … pic.twitter.com/CnsvfnCRvQ

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/wp/2014/06/09/va-says-more-than-57000-patients-waiting-for-first-visit/

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 8:35 PM

Yeah, right. If you believe this BS, you’ll believe anything. There’s a poll that will be taken the first Tuesday in November. That’s the poll that I’ll believe.

HiJack on June 9, 2014 at 8:46 PM

This is what happens when you only poll anti-American, treasonous, anti-military scumbag liberals.

/spit.

Diluculo on June 9, 2014 at 8:56 PM

He lost independents in the middle a while back. His relatively high floor is a tribute to Democrats’ willingness to ignore reality as Obama careens from scandal to disaster to dereliction of duty while perpetrating a series of frauds on the entire nation.

The next chunk to break off will be the “practical”, i.e., non-ideological Democrats. After the mid-terms is the “practical” time. I don’t think the Left will ever abandon him, so his floor probably never drops below 30% anyway.

He is creating a lot of distrust and hard feelings across a broad swath of the electorate. He’s unifying his opposition and motivating them, neither of which is a good idea 3 months from a crucial election.

He’s also reinforcing a new narrative, one that portrays him as incompetent, mendacious and untrustworthy, that threatens to depose the facade of suave and uber-intelligent competence so carefully fabricated from pixie dust by David Axelrod.

novaculus on June 9, 2014 at 9:08 PM

Barry has a hard base of the blacks, the Marxist-Progs, and LIVs on the left that just think he’s a cool black dude. As far as they are concerned he can do no wrong.

slickwillie2001 on June 9, 2014 at 9:08 PM

Don’t forget the news that’s just around the corner. The new rates for Obamacare will be published in the next couple of months.

Because this will be state-by-state, there will be some good news and some bad news. The biggest increases will undoubtedly be double-digit percentages. Despite the reliable news bias, people screaming and quitting Obamacare will be hard to ignore.

This will be interesting to watch. All these scandals have given the public a case of Obama-fatigue. He’s worn out his welcome and another free pass isn’t in the cards. Big rate increases won’t be some abstract story either; it will hit lots of folks directly. Local news stations won’t have any trouble getting interviews with the affected people.

But the best part is that this wasn’t just Obama’s doing; it was the whole Democratic party’s.

Pythagoras on June 9, 2014 at 9:14 PM

Cong. Tim HuelskampVerified account
@CongHuelskamp

Conservative representing Kansas First District in the U.S. House of Reps. http://huelskamp.house.gov

https://twitter.com/CongHuelskamp
===================================

Cong. Tim Huelskamp @CongHuelskamp · 4m

BREAKING: 69 criminal investigation teams on the ground today in the #VA

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 9:19 PM

They can jam every F*cking Poll up their AZZES.

I know one thing, our very own Key West Reader is
due a King’s Ransom from these Scarabs on Humanity.

ToddPA on June 9, 2014 at 9:23 PM

Another crap poll.

MCGIRV on June 9, 2014 at 9:27 PM

Bush Did It! Solved!

Tard on June 9, 2014 at 9:27 PM

He could be proven to be Jack the Ripper reincarnate and 40% would still support him. Polling Obama is a waste of time.

Carnac on June 9, 2014 at 9:28 PM

He could kill Moochelle and the leeches sucking the entitlement blood out of our country would still approve of this POS.

redware on June 9, 2014 at 9:33 PM

Can. You. Hear. Me. Screaming.???

Actually I’m not terribly surprised- the MSNBC brain dead coalition has completely immersed themselves in the belief that Obama is a “too good for us, we don’t get it, Bush destroyed the credibility of the American Presidency”, mindset. It can’t be shocking that 40% of the population is too busy watching Netflix to actually take on reality.

I can’t think this is going to end well.

BettyRuth on June 9, 2014 at 9:34 PM

Most Americans know VA has been a problem forever.

weedisgood on June 9, 2014 at 7:38 PM

The veterans who have died waiting for appointments that were never made so that a bureaucrat could make his “bonus,” are unavailable for comment.

Alien on June 9, 2014 at 9:40 PM

Anyone with 2 working brain cells who gives a $#!+ already doesn’t like him, and hasn’t for years.

S. D. on June 9, 2014 at 9:44 PM

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 12s

Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) at Hse #VA hrng: The more I hear, the more baffled I am.

Replied to 0 times

Chad Pergram @ChadPergram · 49s

Rep Tim Walz rips #VA for not working w/Congress: I have the Mayo Clinic wants to help with this. You would think we would get a call back.

canopfor on June 9, 2014 at 9:54 PM

Many Obama supporters refuse to analyze his actions on even a monthly basis. Such willful ignorance on their part results in polls like this.

Perspicacious on June 9, 2014 at 10:01 PM

Could be the stability in Obama’s numbers is a function of …


What a shame …

… I guess ther fire breathing AP has burned himself out.

Hmmmmmmm …. let’s LOOK at the vaunted RCP numbers, shall we?

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread

RCP Ave 5/29to6/8 ** 43.5 52.5 -9.0

Gallup 6/6 – 6/8 1500 A 45 49 -4

Ras Rpt 6/6 – 6/8 1500 LV 50 49 +1

Reuters 6/1 – 6/5 1596 A 38 55 -17

FOX 6/1 – 6/3 1006 RV 40 54 -14

CNN 5/29 – 6/1 1003 A 43 55 -12

ABC/WP 5/29 – 6/1 RV 45 53 -8

Here’s a SURPRISE!

If you take out the first TWO polling firms who have the Federal Government as the Number 1 client (could that be a conflict of interest?) …

… the rounded off number (same methodology as RCP) is -13

And those numbers are artificially inflated as well.

There is one rule above all else in D.C. these days …

“Don’t do stupid shit and piss off the NPD-afflicted, petulant child.”

PolAgnostic on June 9, 2014 at 10:05 PM

And the Repubs have controlled 2/3 of the Presidency and Congress since 2007.
CW on June 9, 2014 at 8:34 PM

Um…no they haven’t…Full Dem Press from 2009 – 2011…well, until Jan 2011…

Newtie and the Beauty on June 9, 2014 at 10:07 PM

There isn’t the level of outrage, towards Obama, that the media would give a Republican. They’re reporting it, but they’ve also given Kerry a free ride talking about not leaving anyone behind, without having to explain why they gave up 5 of the worst. I’m sure if he were a Republican, the front page story would have had all the culprits pictures and a detailed explanation about why they shouldn’t have been released.

The Democrats are playing this fairly coy, so I hope the Republicans have the ads ready. Between what’s happening on our borders, this case, and the VA, there is no reason to re-elect any Democrat. The Democrats have already shown blind allegiance to this President and they’ll let him get away with anything. The only way we’ll salvage this country is to get a Republican Senate with such numbers that even Obama will sit up and take notice.

bflat879 on June 9, 2014 at 10:08 PM

No damage to Obama’s job approval from VA scandal

Further proof we are surrounded by idiots. Likely to drown on the way to starvation.

Bmore on June 9, 2014 at 10:15 PM

“Don’t do stupid shit and piss off the NPD-afflicted, petulant child.”

The bully king of a corrupt town.

MT on June 9, 2014 at 10:15 PM

Gallup and Raz look really good for Obama. He has been hovering between 48 and 50% Approval on Raz for the past 3-4 weeks.

Impeachment will only make him stronger!

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread

Gallup 6/6 – 6/8 1500 A 45 49 -4
Rasmussen6/6 – 6/8 1500 LV 50 49 +1

Ned Pepper on June 9, 2014 at 10:16 PM

Allah is doing his happy dance. He loves him some good Obama news. Of course he would never post the more negative polls.

The Notorious G.O.P on June 9, 2014 at 10:53 PM

There’s a skew in there 5 -10 to the Left.

Take that into consideration.

formwiz on June 9, 2014 at 11:04 PM

Agreed. I cannot believe that in light of the high regard most people still have for veterans that there was not a telling drop in obama’s approval rating.

davidk on June 9, 2014 at 7:46 PM

You don’t get your news from the old media.

They played Shinseki for the bad guy.

There will have to be further serious deterioration in the economy and/or huge increases in health premiums under O-Care to get him below 40% – and the difference between 40 and 44 in these polls isn’t significant.

Adjoran on June 9, 2014 at 11:50 PM

ow many dems did they sample for that outcome? The POLLS ARE FAKE.

dogsoldier on June 10, 2014 at 5:41 AM

PolAgnostic on June 9, 2014 at 10:05 PM

This. And they all oversample dems by +14 and sometimes even more.

dogsoldier on June 10, 2014 at 5:43 AM

I can believe the polls, just look at how many people still believe in the hoax that is agw. Once a belief has been set in concrete, it’s hard to get rid of it. Standing by her man will eventually pay off for Killary, even tho we all know she has as much blood on her hands as our dear leader.

Kissmygrits on June 10, 2014 at 8:38 AM

I don’t understand why this should be a surprise. There’s a certain percent of the population that is so fanatically Democrat that literally nothing can shake them. No matter what happens, it’s somehow the fault of Republicans or some sort of conservative plot.

Conservatives are far more likely to hold their elected leaders accountable than liberals because they are more intellectually honest.

Paperclips on June 10, 2014 at 9:37 AM

The people polled must have been too ignorant to put the conection between the ACA, Obama’s desired Signle Payer system, and VA health care together…

easyt65 on June 10, 2014 at 1:54 PM