ADP report shows 179K private-sector jobs added in May

posted at 10:41 am on June 4, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The first-quarter contraction didn’t bring job creation to a halt, according to today’s ADP report on private-sector employment in May, but it didn’t boost it either. ADP estimates that private-sector employers created 179,000 jobs for the month, the lowest figure in four months and second-lowest in the past twelve months:

Private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. …

Goods-producing employment rose by 29,000 jobs in May, up from 21,000 jobs gained in April. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs over the month, down slightly from 16,000 in April. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 10,000 jobs in May, up from April’s 2,000 and the largest number since December last year.

Service-providing employment rose by 150,000 jobs in May, down from 194,000 in April. TheADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed the most to the lower overall number in May — adding 46,000 jobs, down from 75,000 in April. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, the same number of jobs added in April. The 6,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down slightly from 8,000 last month.

“After a strong post-winter rebound in April, job growth in May slowed somewhat,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The 179,000 jobs added figure is higher than May of last year and in line with the average over the past twelve months.”

The ADP chart on job creation over the past 13 months substantiates that analysis, as far as it goes:

adp-13mos-2014-05

 

This is a problem for a couple of reasons. First, the levels shown over the past year are all still stagnation levels, with the possible exception of November 2013, and only maybe so. The US economy has to add 150,000 jobs a month in order to keep up with population growth. If we’re averaging ~180,000 a month, we’re only treading water.  In order to get the millions of people sidelined by the Great Recession and the five-year stagnation that has followed, we need sustained monthly job growth in the 300K-400K range for months, if not a couple of years. 

Second, the ADP report is usually (although not always) sunnier than the official BLS numbers, which come out on Friday. The White House has touted the mild uptick in hiring this winter and spring as a sign of an American economic revival that’s just around the corner. If the BLS figure comes in short of this, and especially if it’s under 150K, that Q1 contraction will start looking less like the anomaly the White House claims and more like the indicator it really was.

CNBC’s Jeff Cox calls this result “disappointingly slow”:

Job creation in the private sector was disappointingly slow in May, with companies adding just 179,000 positions, according to the latest reading from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

Economists in a consensus survey expected ADP’s national employment report to show the economy created 215,000 private payrolls in May, down from the prior month’s 220,000 figure.

The number could cause economists to ratchet down the projections for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is projected to show an addition of 210,000 positions for the month. Capital Economics said in a note that the ADP report “adds to the downside risk” for its forecast of 230,000 jobs created.

Reuters briefly noted that the ADP measure missed expectations. USA Today’s Paul Davidson suggests that this might be a slowdown from previous “strong gains”:

Business added 179,000 jobs in May, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, possibly signaling a labor market that slowed after notching strong gains in recent months.

Economists had estimated ADP would report about 210,000 job gains last month,according to the median forecast in Action Economics’ survey.

That would be the 288,000 jobs added in the April report, which were accompanied by 806,000 people leaving the labor force, a rather mixed bag rather than “strong gains” overall for the economy. We’ll see if the BLS gives us better news on Friday, but I’d also watch to see if those April numbers get a downward revision.


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Everything is great. Nothing to see here. These are not the crummy economic and labor statistics you’re looking for. Move along.

/s

xNavigator on June 4, 2014 at 10:45 AM

D@mn warm weather…

or is it cold weather…?

probably wild fires….

Electrongod on June 4, 2014 at 10:46 AM

Obama the Magnificent needs more time!!!!!!

Electrongod on June 4, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Darn a new jobless picture and not the usual Obama and the giant screw!

And I can’t even tell if she’s saying “Help need job” or “Need job help.” ;0

Happy Nomad on June 4, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Damn Republicans, talking down the economy again.

/

Midas on June 4, 2014 at 10:48 AM

But May was such a cold month. Or it was too hot. Yeah, that’s it.

Doughboy on June 4, 2014 at 10:49 AM

Say, how many consecutive quarters of negative GDP defines a recession?

GREAT TIMING for the EPA assault on the economy, 0bama!

Tard on June 4, 2014 at 10:49 AM

RAAAAACISM, that’s what to blame. Greedy CEOs want to sit in piles of money and won’t hire people because Obama is (half) black and they want him to fail. It has nothing to do with hyper regulation and a federal bureaucracy that is more corrupt than a Mexican federale…

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:49 AM

Say, how many consecutive quarters of negative GDP defines a recession?

GREAT TIMING for the EPA assault on the economy, 0bama!

Tard on June 4, 2014 at 10:49 AM

2 quarters of 0 growth or negative growth is the official definition of recession.

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:50 AM

Obama has a pen….
and a phone…

When he gets up this morning and reads about this….

He will be pissed…….

Electrongod on June 4, 2014 at 10:51 AM

Sure looks like another summer of recovery headed our way.

jmtham156 on June 4, 2014 at 10:52 AM

He will be pissed…….

Electrongod on June 4, 2014 at 10:51 AM

“Madder than hell”

VegasRick on June 4, 2014 at 10:53 AM

What happened to the redheaded lady waiting in line? She dropped from the labor force?

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

After eight years as a stay-at-home father I’m about to re-enter the full-time working world. I was recently hired after spending six months of serious employment searching.

I’ve had some part time work early on and a hiccup with a full time job two years ago that didn’t pan out (on my end of the deal).

To get to where I am today though required a complete career shift and that required going back to school. I’ve spent the last 1 1/2 getting my master’s. I have a year left.

The economy is still stagnant, but many employers are hiring and looking for employees to fill needed positions. How many are willing to stretch themselves? Is Mike Rowe full of it??

I’m getting a Master’s in GIS. I did this because reports showed there is/will be a rising demand for the field, and it happens to be directly related to a lifelong career dream.

Logus on June 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

300,000 jobs needed – 179,000 jobs added = 121,000 racists

fogw on June 4, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Obama the Magnificent needs more time!!!!!!

Electrongod on June 4, 2014 at 10:47 AM

If we give him 6 more terms Happy Days Will Be Here Again.

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:56 AM

The “strong gains” prognosis last month was accidentally sent to the press, instead of select Democrat donors.

Rix on June 4, 2014 at 10:59 AM

What happened to the redheaded lady waiting in line? She dropped from the labor force?

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:54 AM

She found a 1%’er sponsor.

Rix on June 4, 2014 at 11:00 AM

I should have saved a certain lib’s recent comment here. It was braying about how the “prisoner swap” talk would go away when the fantastic employment numbers came out.

Fail.

Meremortal on June 4, 2014 at 11:02 AM

To be “unexpectedly” revised downward in a couple of weeks.

rbj on June 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

My apologies to all. I did not add one full time employee last month.

Bmore on June 4, 2014 at 11:08 AM

Boy, when Barack reads about this in next week’s “Mecca Metro News”, he is really going to be angry. Then he’ll promise to ‘get to the bottom of this” & “find out who is responsible” & “hold them accountable” so “this never happens again”. Then he’ll get to the links…

bimmcorp on June 4, 2014 at 11:09 AM

All is on topic now, really.

Here’s what’s hot in the news – obama is dumping thousands of kids into AZ, to punish Brewer.

obama is killing kids, temps in AZ and the surrounded desert being way over 100 now, daily.

Rs, you god-damned fools, when will you fight back?

obama is for slave-labor, against the legal and especially the blacks’ jobs in the US, you say nothing.

obama kills children, you say nothing.

obama trades terrorists for a traitor, you say nothing.

YOU are the traitors of the land. YOU enable him.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2014 at 11:11 AM

To be “unexpectedly” revised downward in a couple of weeks.

rbj on June 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

…every damn time!

KOOLAID2 on June 4, 2014 at 11:11 AM

OT – what exactly is a “Mexican-American enclave”, please?

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — Three women were found dead at home in a working-class Mexican-American enclave on the edge of Fort Worth’s city limits with their throats slit, family members of the victims say.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2014 at 11:12 AM

obama never was for Jobs. He just fooled the majority of the sheeple in the land, twice, and always.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2014 at 11:12 AM

My apologies to all. I did not add one full time employee last month.

Bmore on June 4, 2014 at 11:08 AM

You just did that to make a brother look bad, didn’t you? Racist, with a side order of homophobia too.

307wolverine on June 4, 2014 at 11:15 AM

LSM coverage: “Economists were today surprised by…” in 5…, 4…, 3…

bofh on June 4, 2014 at 11:16 AM

My apologies to all. I did not add one full time employee last month.

Bmore on June 4, 2014 at 11:08 AM

Don’t think it went un-noticed. IRS, OSHA, EPA, EEOC, and probably the ATF have you on their BOLO lists.

Happy Nomad on June 4, 2014 at 11:25 AM

May is such a racist month.

builderD on June 4, 2014 at 11:26 AM

Magic Egg-Ball says:

Massive downward revision for April, under 190K jobs added and more people departing the workforce in May.

Steve Eggleston on June 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

Say, how many consecutive quarters of negative GDP defines a recession?

GREAT TIMING for the EPA assault on the economy, 0bama!

Tard on June 4, 2014 at 10:49 AM

2 quarters of 0 growth or negative growth is the official definition of recession.

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:50 AM

It’s the traditional definition, not the official one (there is no “official” one). The liberals of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is who the Presstorian Guard – Business Division use to proclaim recessions, redefined “recession” to include any era of Republican Presidential reign, and ONLY Republican Presidential reign, they want to discredit.

Steve Eggleston on June 4, 2014 at 11:31 AM

I blame it on the weather. January – March it was too cold. June – August it will be too hot. November and December it will be too cold again.

April – May and September – October the weather is far too nice for people to waste time looking for a job.

bw222 on June 4, 2014 at 11:33 AM

Lolz!

Bmore on June 4, 2014 at 11:37 AM

Ever notice people holding “Need a Job” signs never give a clue as to their skill.

mixplix on June 4, 2014 at 11:50 AM

If only they could figure out the right factor to use, the jobs numbers would jump right up to warm and fuzzy levels, and show that on a seasonally adjusted basis, we really have full employment!

</sarc

DaveK on June 4, 2014 at 11:53 AM

2 quarters of 0 growth or negative growth is the official definition of recession.

ConstantineXI on June 4, 2014 at 10:50 AM

Here We Go!

Tard on June 4, 2014 at 11:54 AM

Don’t worry increasing the cost of electricity should really make the job market BOOM and by boom I mean KABOOM.

jukin3 on June 4, 2014 at 12:26 PM

Steve Eggleston on June 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

And that is after the BLS cooks the books a bit more….

Athos on June 4, 2014 at 12:55 PM

The cold weather doesn’t seem to affect Canada and other nations that have a cold winter. Why would that be a problem here??? I’d love to hear Obama explain that.

garydt on June 4, 2014 at 1:16 PM

Hide the decline! Expect another pivot to the economy with many speeches across the country blaming Republicans.

Decoski on June 4, 2014 at 1:17 PM

Steve Eggleston on June 4, 2014 at 11:27 AM

Consumer metrics institute used accurate numbers to calculate Q1 GDP and found that it’s “-3.64%”

http://www.consumerindexes.com/

And lastly, for this report the BEA assumed annualized net aggregate inflation of 1.28%. During the first quarter (i.e., from January through March) the growth rate of the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was over a half percent higher at a 1.80% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP — which arguably reflected the real experiences of American households while recording sharply increasing consumer prices during the first quarter) was over two and a half percent higher at 3.91%. Under reported inflation will result in overly optimistic growth data, and if the BEA’s numbers were corrected for inflation using the BLS CPI-U the economy would be reported to be contracting at a -1.52% annualized rate. If we were to use the BPP data to adjust for inflation, the first quarter’s contraction rate would have been a staggering -3.64%.

dogsoldier on June 4, 2014 at 1:56 PM

ADP report shows 179K private-sector jobs added in May

Gee, for a nation of almost 310,000,000 people, that’s downright…oh, what’s the word…lame? Lousy? Disappointing? Urine-deficient?

Yeah…urine-deficient…

Newtie and the Beauty on June 4, 2014 at 2:24 PM

US economy has to add 150,000 jobs a month in order to keep up with population growth

Wasn’t that number 250,000 before? Why does it feel like the threshold to meet the bar keeps going down for this administration.

LoganSix on June 4, 2014 at 2:46 PM

ADP report shows 179K private-sector jobs added in May

“Thank you, President Obama!”

Wasn’t that number 250,000 before? Why does it feel like the threshold to meet the bar keeps going down for this administration.

LoganSix on June 4, 2014 at 2:46 PM

Yeah, kinda like Oceania’s choco rations, eh?

Dr. ZhivBlago on June 4, 2014 at 3:34 PM

In order to get the millions of people sidelined by the Great Recession and the five-year stagnation that has followed, we need sustained monthly job growth in the 300K-400K range for months, if not a couple of years.

My math isn’t always the greatest but I think you are going to have to have better than 3 years of constant 300K+ job growth just to get back to what we had at the beginning of the depression. And that is just putting us back to what we had then, that does not count any population growth in those three years.

Johnnyreb on June 4, 2014 at 3:53 PM

To be “unexpectedly” revised downward in a couple of weeks.

rbj on June 4, 2014 at 11:04 AM

As soon as the Dept. Of Labor figures come out, which will then be revised downward in a month. In Economics that’s called a DDROS. (Double Downward Revision, Obama Style)
/s in case you hadn’t noticed.

yesiamapirate on June 4, 2014 at 4:09 PM

Gallup, OTOH, is showing the biggest positive change in job growth since early 2008.

Their measure is relatively new, but it asks employees if their employer is hiring, holding steady, or cutting staff this month. The latest figure is +27 – 40% say hiring, 13% cutting.

»»

So that is in contrast to this report and the slowing GDP growth. But GDP has a lagging effect on employment: employers are affected psychologically by news of recession.

The bigger indicators are the lack of private capital investment, which remains at a six-year low (the extra profits of publicly traded companies are being stowed in cash, not invested – but even when they make capital investments, it is not necessarily indicative of expansion), and other indicators like the MiDi index of housing prices, which is now showing a falling trend at -3.06 (normal range is from -2 to +2).

Adjoran on June 4, 2014 at 4:22 PM

Rest assured, that 179k number is fluffed to the maximum. Probably by about 75k.

We have gone far beyond swirling the toilet drain, we’re slowly sinking to the bottom of the septic tank now. All we have to hang on to is the administration’s lies.

The truth will come out when this communist fascist islamist is out of office and can no longer dictate what the numbers are, or what his personal fluffers in the media report.

Diluculo on June 4, 2014 at 5:44 PM