Scott on the rise in Florida?

posted at 4:41 pm on May 28, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

At times, it has appeared that the only way Democrats could lose the gubernatorial race in Florida would be to nominate someone who could manage to be less popular than incumbent Republican Rick Scott. Apparently, they decided to put that theory to the test, and may be losing the gamble. Survey USA reports that Scott has started to gain a little momentum in the race — or more accurately, Charlie Crist is starting to stumble:

Is it an early indicator of things to come? Or is it just statistical noise? For the first time, the WFLA-TV poll that is tracking the Florida Governor’s contest shows Republican Rick Scott in front — Scott at 42%, Democrat Charlie Crist at 40%, according to SurveyUSA data gathered as voters get ready for the Memorial Day weekend. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 days ago, Scott is up 1 point, Crist is down 4 points, a 5-point shift to the right.

Here is where there is movement: in Central Florida, which includes 19 counties surrounding Orlando, Scott has gained ground in each of 4 tracking polls and today leads there 47% to 34%. You can see it here. Among moderates, Crist had a 25-point advantage 10 days ago, now a 12-point advantage. You can see it here. Among males, Crist has been steadily losing ground, and now trails by 14 points; the Gender Gap is today 26 points. Crist’s support is down among whites, down among blacks. Among Cubans, Scott now leads 2:1.

This may not be as surprising as it looks. The most recent Quinnipiac poll, taken a month ago, put Crist up by 10 points, but that’s more of an outlier than this result. The RCP average of polls shows Crist up only 2.4 points, with this poll and the Q-poll included. Magellan, a Republican polling firm, also had Scott up by two in mid-April (45/43), but Mason-Dixon had it even at 42-up in the following week.

Besides, Survey USA usually does good work in state and Congressional races, and they have their own series on this election as they note above. The shift in the polling within the series clearly highlights an erosion of support from Crist, even if that support isn’t necessarily benefiting Scott at the moment.

The Miami Herald’s Marc Caputo links it to a robust kickoff from Team Scott, while Crist has to wait to spend for another month or more:

After a $10 million ad blitz in just over two months, Gov. Rick Scott has started to pull ahead of Democrat Charlie Crist in a new poll that shows the Republican incumbent leading 42-40 percent.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for Tampa’s WFLA NBC affiliate, indicates that Scott isn’t surging as much as he’s dragging down Crist. …

The better-funded Scott has been advertising away, and Crist hasn’t had the money to start responding. Expect Crist to go up sometime in June, perhaps early July at the latest. The Democratic Governors Association might help out.

A sign if Crist is hurt: If he’s spending a big chunk of his money in his homebase of Tampa Bay, where Scott has spent a plurality of his ad money, 29 percent.  Scott’s second-biggest advertising market, Orlando, accounts for 21 percent of his spending. Together, the governor has spent half of his money in those two I-4 corridor markets, the swing area of the swing state.

Actually, this looks familiar. When challenged by Marco Rubio, Crist initially had a big lead, but his campaign nosedived in the spring as voters began to pay more attention to the race and the candidates. Democrats might want to consider that when voting in their own primary in August.


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Ah yes, Rubio’s 49/30/20 win over Crist and Meeks… was about 20 points off of polls in FL.

This was AFTER polls claimed Rubio was down to Crist in the Rep polls by 20 points… which forced Crist to switch to Independent.

And anything from Quinnipiac is a joke.

Odie1941 on May 28, 2014 at 4:48 PM

Rick Scott: GD MF SOB who implemented the $60 million unemployment boondoggle that stiffed tens of thousands of people out of $275/wk? The same system that said I was overpaid for unemployment when I still have never received a GD dime?

That Rick Scott?

Go to Hades, you …

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:49 PM

LOL. What kind of moronic voter says to himself, “I’m gonna vote for Charlie Crist”?

Rational Thought on May 28, 2014 at 4:50 PM

I’ll vote for Scott again .

Lucano on May 28, 2014 at 4:51 PM

Unfortunately, I’ll be holding
my nose for Scott.

bazil9 on May 28, 2014 at 4:52 PM

Who are these mutants, and where do they come from?

SailorMark on May 28, 2014 at 4:53 PM

There are many paths to redemption.

One hundred million dollars and running against Charlie Crist is probably one of the shortest ones.

joana on May 28, 2014 at 4:54 PM

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:49 PM

In that case , vote for the orange .
Where are you from ?

Lucano on May 28, 2014 at 4:54 PM

Crist is an opportunist with no core values, except to get elected. At least Scott, love him or hate him, believes in something.

bopbottle on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

In that case , vote for the orange .
Where are you from ?

Lucano on May 28, 2014 at 4:54 PM

For as much as I hate Rick Scott, I hate the Ooompa Loompa more.

Damned if I do and damned if I don’t.

From Vero Beach.

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Crist is a disgrace.

Well done, FL. So far…

22044 on May 28, 2014 at 5:00 PM

Orange Power!

faraway on May 28, 2014 at 5:01 PM

I am not worried about Rick Scott losing. In fact, he doesn’t have to turn out the Republican vote. He just has to hammer home to Democrats that Charile Crist used to be a Republican. It’s a strategy that Democrats don’t have an answer for yet.

BigGator5 on May 28, 2014 at 5:01 PM

How can anyone vote for the flip-flopping orange Ooompa Loompa?

philw1776 on May 28, 2014 at 5:02 PM

Crist is an opportunist with no core values, except to get elected. At least Scott, love him or hate him, believes in something.

bopbottle on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Another Arlen Specter. Hopefully Crist can take Specter’s spot on the rubber-chicken comedy circuit after the election.

slickwillie2001 on May 28, 2014 at 5:03 PM

Crist is an opportunist with no core values, except to get elected. At least Scott, love him or hate him, believes in something.

bopbottle on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

That’s the truth. After seeing him say he left the republican party because it o blatant racism that was absolutely confirmed. What’s really going to be a sight will be all those people here in Wasserman-Schultz land who had Davis signs will now have Crist signs!

Judge_Dredd on May 28, 2014 at 5:04 PM

For as much as I hate Rick Scott, I hate the Ooompa Loompa more.

Damned if I do and damned if I don’t.

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Agreed.

BigGator5 on May 28, 2014 at 5:05 PM

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Agreed.

BigGator5 on May 28, 2014 at 5:05 PM

me 3.

bazil9 on May 28, 2014 at 5:06 PM

After the Election results where Rick Scott is declared the winner, Charlie will be Cristfallen.

Varchild on May 28, 2014 at 5:06 PM

Agreed.

BigGator5 on May 28, 2014 at 5:05 PM

Just followed you on Twitter. You’re quite the Tweeter/Twittererererer. :D

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 5:07 PM

He’s running a cute ad with his grandkid. Actually makes him look human and sort of… nice.

Tanya on May 28, 2014 at 5:07 PM

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Sorry if you somehow got screwed . Rick Scott
has been pretty good for Florida . I’m on the other
side in Sarasota county and I appreciate your
views from the east coast .
No bait just good will .

Lucano on May 28, 2014 at 5:08 PM

Yes after he came out for Amnesty and weed.

weedisgood on May 28, 2014 at 5:09 PM

LOL. What kind of moronic voter says to himself, “I’m gonna vote for Charlie Crist”?

Rational Thought on May 28, 2014 at 4:50 PM

progressives

rob verdi on May 28, 2014 at 5:09 PM

Lucano on May 28, 2014 at 5:08 PM

Thanks, Lucano.

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 5:11 PM

I have a liberal co-worker who is planning to vote for Gov. Scott. You don’t have to like him to agree with the job he has done. Oddly enough, she’s unhappy with her Democrat mayor. Maybe we have a conversion going on.

Cindy Munford on May 28, 2014 at 5:13 PM

What’s really going to be a sight will be all those people here in Wasserman-Schultz land who had Davis signs will now have Crist signs!

Judge_Dredd on May 28, 2014 at 5:04 PM

The whole thing is beyond funny. I remember back when Phil Gramm changed parties. He was much more gracious and honorable. That dems who pilloried Crist not so long ago will now be fawning over him is hysterical.

The dem candidates, and voters, show the only thing they care about is power.

cozmo on May 28, 2014 at 5:14 PM

weedisgood on May 28, 2014 at 5:09 PM

You are pretty much worthless. I needed advice on marijuana for a trip to Colorado and you were hiding.

cozmo on May 28, 2014 at 5:16 PM

Whoa. I spent 30 yrs on that sandbar and SO happy to be in WNC. Scott may not be everyone’s cup o’ tea, but …CRIST? As my Yankee friends say, “Common!”

vnvet on May 28, 2014 at 5:17 PM

For as much as I hate Rick Scott, I hate the Ooompa Loompa more.

Damned if I do and damned if I don’t.

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Agreed.

BigGator5 on May 28, 2014 at 5:05 PM

It’s almost like an election is like choosing the least imperfect from a list of imperfect candidates. Imagine that.

slickwillie2001 on May 28, 2014 at 5:17 PM

I guess the Left could vote for Crist based on the story of his redemption from evil. Although, acquiring a new bride when he though he had a snowball’s chance in He!! of being second banana on the Republican presidential ticket was pretty funny. And he lost out to Sarah Palin!. HAHAHAHAHhahahahah*snort*hahahahahahah! Sorry.

Cindy Munford on May 28, 2014 at 5:20 PM

Orange Julius has the power of the plaintiff’s bar on his side. he will have lots and lots and lots and lots to spend…

I’d never vote for him

Key West Reader on May 28, 2014 at 5:20 PM

Mark Boabaca on May 28, 2014 at 5:11 PM
You’re welcome . Keep us posted on what’s going on
the other side as I’m bemused and would appreciate
input on immigration etc. . ; )

Lucano on May 28, 2014 at 5:21 PM

slickwillie2001 on May 28, 2014 at 5:17 PM

Pretty much the case in all of them now.

Cindy Munford on May 28, 2014 at 5:22 PM

The only problem I have with Scott was not signing the bill ending permanent alimony.

Other than that, I can’t see why anyone would object to him.

Crist, on the other hand, can never be trusted by either party. If Dems vote him in and he thinks a right turn will help save his hide, who wants to bet that he’d take it.

John Deaux on May 28, 2014 at 5:24 PM

I am not worried about Rick Scott losing. In fact, he doesn’t have to turn out the Republican vote. He just has to hammer home to Democrats that Charile Crist used to be a Republican. It’s a strategy that Democrats don’t have an answer for yet.

BigGator5 on May 28, 2014 at 5:01 PM

I wonder how many of them know he used to be known as “Chain Gang Charlie” because he brought back prison work crews…I think when he was AG, right? He was trying to burnish his tough-on-crime cred for us knuckle-dragging conservatives. Betcha he’d claim he really didn’t have anything to do with it and never liked that nickname, thankyouverymuch.

I told an erstwhile Cristalyte on Twitter that he’s like the philanderer who cheats on his wife. The other woman has to know that all his little promises to her are insincere and that he’ll eventually cheat on her, too.

KKinFLA on May 28, 2014 at 5:25 PM

He’s running a cute ad with his grandkid. Actually makes him look human and sort of… nice.

Tanya on May 28, 2014 at 5:07 PM

Yep, saw that. He had some great ads last cycle, too. As awful as he is at speechifying, he does come across as a good guy in his ads. I think that made it for him in his original election.

KKinFLA on May 28, 2014 at 5:28 PM

Heads Up: Primary What Nots:

2014 U.S. ELECTION CALENDAR

MAY 28, 2014:
Arizona – Filing Deadline

MAY 30, 2014:
Wyoming – Filing Deadline (Major Parties)

http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

canopfor on May 28, 2014 at 5:28 PM

I guess the Left could vote for Crist based on the story of his redemption from evil. Although, acquiring a new bride when he though he had a snowball’s chance in He!! of being second banana on the Republican presidential ticket was pretty funny. And he lost out to Sarah Palin!. HAHAHAHAHhahahahah*snort*hahahahahahah! Sorry.

Cindy Munford on May 28, 2014 at 5:20 PM

Cindy Munford: A BoatLoad of truth there Cindy,..amens on dats!–:0

canopfor on May 28, 2014 at 5:30 PM

The only problem I have with Scott was not signing the bill ending permanent alimony.

Other than that, I can’t see why anyone would object to him.

Crist, on the other hand, can never be trusted by either party. If Dems vote him in and he thinks a right turn will help save his hide, who wants to bet that he’d take it.

John Deaux on May 28, 2014 at 5:24 PM

Am I wrong in remembering that Scott wanted to go with the Obamacare Medicaid expansion, but that the legislature nixed it? That’s a strike against him, but still better than the alternative.

KKinFLA on May 28, 2014 at 5:31 PM

Has there ever been a more awkward and stiff candidate than Rick Scott? The interviews I have seen are painful. But hopefully he will beat the idiot Crist.

Jack_Burton on May 28, 2014 at 5:37 PM

The whole thing is beyond funny. I remember back when Phil Gramm changed parties. He was much more gracious and honorable. That dems who pilloried Crist not so long ago will now be fawning over him is hysterical.

The dem candidates, and voters, show the only thing they care about is power.

cozmo on May 28, 2014 at 5:14 PM

Correct me if I’m wrong. But didn’t Gramm go back to his constituents and re- run AS a republican rather than switching in midstream like Gabby & others?

Judge_Dredd on May 28, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Judge_Dredd on May 28, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Yep, he resigned his seat in the house and ran as a republican. Then he went on to the senate.

cozmo on May 28, 2014 at 5:39 PM

I fully expect Florida voters to say, “Sorry, Charlie.” When you talk about name recognition, Charlie Crist certainly has that. His problem is, he has name recognition and it’s associated with saying anything to get elected and then denying you ever said it when things go South. He’s known and I really have no idea why the Democrats wanted him so badly.

bflat879 on May 28, 2014 at 5:42 PM

Yep, he resigned his seat in the house and ran as a republican. Then he went on to the senate.

cozmo on May 28, 2014 at 5:39 PM

Gramm-Rudman was probably responsible along w/ Reagan for the weapon carry freedom we enjoy today. As a catalyst I mean. I remember how out of control the ATFD was before Reagan got to it.

Judge_Dredd on May 28, 2014 at 5:45 PM

One presumes there are many better choices than Crist.

If Scott is one of them, so be it.

formwiz on May 28, 2014 at 5:47 PM

I sure hope Scott beats The Orange One. Crist is a fraud and in the pocket of certain trial lawyers in Florida. No chance for tort reform with him as governor.

ProfShadow on May 28, 2014 at 5:56 PM

Rick Scott-Weird Pod Person Alien dude, kinda give you the creeps

Charlie Christ: Own and Operated by the Morgan&Morgan Law Firm
Alias: Flip Flopper Charlie. Has identity issues.

Seriously there isnt anyone else here? Ill write myself in again.

ninjacoastie on May 28, 2014 at 6:07 PM

Florida Gov. Rick Scott backs in-state tuition for undocumented students

Is this strike two, three, or four? I don’t remember or care. It’s sad that the third largest state in the union can’t come up with someone better.

joekenha on May 28, 2014 at 6:10 PM

Rick Scott–Yo

Charlie Crist–No

Newtie and the Beauty on May 28, 2014 at 6:11 PM

joekenha on May 28, 2014 at 6:10 PM

When did Florida move up a spot?

cozmo on May 28, 2014 at 6:12 PM

Scott is mediocre, but I would absolutely LOVE to see that orange piece of sh*t lose to him.

Ted the Average on May 28, 2014 at 6:15 PM

That Scott picture just wreaks of this…..

portlandon on May 28, 2014 at 6:24 PM

People of Florida, Crist is a snake that thinks Obama and Obama-democrat Care is the best thing to have ever happened to the USA.

Just sayin…

jukin3 on May 28, 2014 at 6:26 PM

People of Florida, Crist is a snake that thinks Obama and Obama-democrat Care is the best thing to have ever happened to the USA.

Just sayin…

jukin3 on May 28, 2014 at 6:26 PM

Listen. Crist is running for one reason only. To give the democrat candidate a boost in 2016. He’s term-limited out if he wins. Why else would someone run for one stinking term? His boss John Morgan is a big democrat supporter. And it’s hearsay but someone told me Morgan’s brother is a dentist and he can’t stand John.

Judge_Dredd on May 28, 2014 at 6:32 PM

Listen. Crist is running for one reason only. To give the democrat candidate a boost in 2016. He’s term-limited out if he wins. Why else would someone run for one stinking term? His boss John Morgan is a big democrat supporter. And it’s hearsay but someone told me Morgan’s brother is a dentist and he can’t stand John.

What you’re missing is that Charlie Crist needs to run for office. It’s his identity, like his fingerprints. I swear he’d run for dog catcher if it were the only elected position available to him. He doesn’t have some grand plan. He runs because he must run. It’s all he knows.

KKinFLA on May 28, 2014 at 6:42 PM

How can anyone vote for the flip-flopping orange Ooompa Loompa?

philw1776 on May 28, 2014 at 5:02 PM

If you don’t, you are a homophobe…

PointnClick on May 28, 2014 at 7:03 PM

Not much to choose from. I will vote for neither.

memyselfni on May 28, 2014 at 7:04 PM

“Spray Tan” Charlie Crist? He gives political opportunists a bad name. I’ll vote for Gov. Scott again.

HornHiAceDeuce on May 28, 2014 at 8:13 PM

When I look at Rick Scott I cant help but think that he looks like human skull that has been spray-painted with flesh-colored paint.

weew on May 28, 2014 at 10:12 PM

Florida Gov. Rick Scott backs in-state tuition for undocumented students

Is this strike two, three, or four? I don’t remember or care. It’s sad that the third largest state in the union can’t come up with someone better.

joekenha on May 28, 2014 at 6:10 PM

And the bill passed. So the guy who vetoed drivers licenses for illegal aliens stays consistent and logical by subsidizing illegal aliens for a college education — when they can’t get a legal job after they graduate!!

Duh!

fred5678 on May 28, 2014 at 11:53 PM

Crist is an opportunist with no core values, except to get elected. At least Scott, love him or hate him, believes in something.

bopbottle on May 28, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Yeah, he believes in getting even richer via elected office. They both suck.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 29, 2014 at 2:26 AM

I’ll vote for Scott again. Crist is trash.

Immolate on May 29, 2014 at 8:55 AM