Hot Air Primary Survey Follow Up results

posted at 8:01 am on May 21, 2014 by Patrick Ishmael

First, the Obamacare results.


To our respondents, voting for implementation of Obamacare at the state level is basically indistinguishable from a vote in favor of the underlying law. That’s a pretty important result in the context of a primary where potential challengers like John Kasich and Mike Pence are implementing, or trying to implement, the President’s signature legislation.

As to the survey for the primary itself, there seems to have been both little movement and lots of movement simultaneously. Ted Cruz earns 28% of the vote this time around, basically matching his 29% showing from earlier this month. Rick Perry remains in fourth at 7%, close to his 8% showing before. But Scott Walker has jumped to the top of the list this week, earning a full 31% of the vote. That jump may be at Rand Paul‘s expense; whereas Walker jumped 13 points over the course of about two weeks, Paul dropped about 10 points, but remains in third. Moving into fifth place is Ben Carson, replacing Mitt Romney.


Scott Walker also wins the “second choice” race, ahead of Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and Ben Carson.


And Walker wins the “acceptable alternative” race, ahead of Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and Ben Carson — mirroring the result of the “second choice” question.


Demographics were consistent relative to the last survey. Your analyses are welcome in the comments, on Twitter and on your blogs. Thanks again!

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While I am not the least bit interested in Rubio as president, his experience so mirroring Obama’s as to be discomforting, I’m going to give him a Mulligan on the amnesty FUBAR. But he only gets one.

Cindy Munford on May 21, 2014 at 12:41 PM

I’m not giving him one.

He has no executive experience. If he runs for governor of Florida and governs as a conservative he will be POTUS. Not any other way.

He’s a one trick pony and his drama queen over emoting antics have grown tiresome.

It’s time to show me.

Jayrae on May 21, 2014 at 1:21 PM

Jayrae on May 21, 2014 at 1:21 PM

Totally agree. I don’t want to vote for people who have no executive experience. Even if you could subscribe everything Obama has done to good will (for the sake of argument, I’m not suggesting that you’re crazy) his inability to do anything in an orderly, logical and cost effective manner are ruining this country.

Cindy Munford on May 21, 2014 at 1:25 PM

There is wisdom out there with the Hot Air reader. I hope the money men of the GOP take note. Walker tackled the tough issues he faced, withstood a revolt, and is still standing. He is a fighter, a doer, and not merely a talker.

Sheerq on May 21, 2014 at 1:25 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on May 21, 2014 at 12:20 PM

Stuck there meaning he’s from Texas. That is no reason to vote for someone just because they are from Texas. Once you give reasons for what he accomplished in Texas that is a different story.

I can understand your liking him but I’ll pass. He stumbled at the starting gate and proved he was not ready for prime time. He left a negative impression and I believe he has too much to overcome.

He still has a big crony capitalist problem.

I’ve moved on. I’m very interested in Walker especially if he comes out against Shamnesty.

Jayrae on May 21, 2014 at 1:29 PM

Jayrae on May 21, 2014 at 1:21 PM

Yeah, the striking similarity to Obama concerns me with Rubio at this point in time. Having the right ideas are important. Getting elected is important, but frankly, I’d rather have a Democrat in the White House in 2016 than a Republican that makes conservatism look as bad as Obama’s made liberalism look.

For that reason, I really hope we nominate a successful executive in 2016, not a Senator, and certainly not a 1st term Senator. To be clear, I’d vote Rubio in the general election over any Democrat on the hope that he’d turn out to be a good president, but when it comes to the primary, I want to minimize the chance of our guy being in over his head to the greatest extent possible. For me, that excludes the entire 2010 class of Senators.

LukeinNE on May 21, 2014 at 1:31 PM

If Palin gives any indication of running, HA will have online polls with her included again.

Toocon on May 21, 2014 at 9:58 AM

You could be right. However, the double standard is pretty obvious.

And if the mods think readers & voters in the poll don’t notice, & they can just exclude her without anyone noticing, maybe they should read the comments closer IMO…

cs89 on May 21, 2014 at 1:39 PM

Does anyone have or remember the results of the poll taken similar to this one when Romney became the nom? Patrick perhaps?

Bmore on May 21, 2014 at 1:56 PM

Sheerq on May 21, 2014 at 1:25 PM

Walker is doing a very good job..:)

Dire Straits on May 21, 2014 at 2:08 PM

Bmore on May 21, 2014 at 1:56 PM

Use the HA search engine..That should help you..:)

PS..Good morning..:)

Dire Straits on May 21, 2014 at 2:10 PM

Jayrae on May 21, 2014 at 1:29 PM

I don’t know, that will be four years ago. It’s like discounting Jindal for that speech.

Cindy Munford on May 21, 2014 at 2:11 PM

Why are folks not giving Bobby Jindal a fair shake? The guy is pure awesomeness on so many levels.

John the Libertarian on May 21, 2014 at 2:15 PM

I have told y’all that Walker is the best. We should stop the debates and just move that money to GOTV efforts.

Midwestprincesse on May 21, 2014 at 2:26 PM

Midwestprincesse on May 21, 2014 at 2:26 PM

Sorry but that is not going to happen..:)

Dire Straits on May 21, 2014 at 2:34 PM

So glad Walker is getting the recognition he deserves. Anyone read his book? The man gets it, he really does. And he’s a PROVEN conservative leader. He knows how to run a campaign too, unlike the last 2 GOP nominees. After his hopefully large re-election victory this November, I hope he really starts ramping up his 2016 run.

Jack_Burton on May 21, 2014 at 3:19 PM

This is probably my own fault, but still, even after reading and doing some non extensive research on Walker, I know next to nothing about him. I know he took a populist conservative view on a couple things, fought the unions and won, but that doesn’t tell me much about how he’d tackle national issues like the invasion from the south and what to do about the loaches they want to grant amnesty to, and what he’d do to the companies hiring these illegal scumbags. I don’t want them in the military.

Will he move to erase obamacare? Will he strip the ridiculous regulations strangling businesses on a NATIONAL level?

Or will he cave for the sake of “bipartisanship” and raise taxes and spending?

I don’t know, and he hasn’t exactly outlined this clearly (or at all) that I can find.

Maybe my bing is broken.

Diluculo on May 21, 2014 at 3:29 PM

So I have officially changed my top 3 candidates for President in 2016.

Rick Perry and Scott Walker are still my top 2. But number 3 has changed to Bobby Jindal.

Any one of them gets the nomination and I will be over the moon! Rand Paul has slipped to #4 because I’ve been getting disappointed with all of his pandering lately. He seems to talk out of both sides of his mouth, and its annoying. I would still vote for him if he got the nomination, though.

Jack_Burton on May 21, 2014 at 3:31 PM

Diluculo on May 21, 2014 at 3:29 PM

I don’t think he’ll go very high profile until if or when he commits to running. Right now I think he is trying to get reelected governor.

Cindy Munford on May 21, 2014 at 3:59 PM

Scott Walker is an amnesty pusher. Walker flip-flopped on it a few times, but anyone supporting amnesty in any form, should NEVER get any support by principled Conservatives. They will sell you out to prove a point that will cost this country it’s last stand against a one-party system. When amnesty passes: Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Louisiana will turn blue like California did and also like California, the Republicans elected to congress will mostly be mush RINOs trying to survive the next election. You’ll never have another Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, Janet Brewer (early days), Bobby Jindal again. Instead you will have the John McCain types if the GOP is still around after 2020. That means with the 16-18 million new Democrats, the 2-4 million new Republicans won’t matter, leaving Republicans with a 12-16 million voter deficit, mostly in the south, mostly in Republican states. That means every justice going to the supreme court will be a liberal activist like the ones Obama put in there. That means every radical new law like Obamacare that the DNC wants to pass will pass without opposition. That means the new Democrat governors of Texas, Arizona and Oklahoma will pass anything they want because your vote and input will mean nothing at that point. Once Texas goes blue, you’ll never have another non-Democrat elected in America. That’s why Rubio, Walker, Paul, Christie, Bush, Ryan, Rice and Scarborough should never be considered for higher office by principled Conservatives.

CommieJuice on May 21, 2014 at 4:56 PM

I respectfully request that E Morrisey and A Pundit exercise executive authority over the next poll and put Mrs. Palin in the list. Hey, if she tubes and is in last place or even does not make the top 6 then take her out.

Alternatively, I respectfully a statement from the poll author as to why exactly Mrs. Palin is not included in the list. Opinion that she is not electable because of her resignation from the governorship in AK is not sufficient — we can all articulate one reason why any one of the people on the list is not electable.

The Commentator on May 21, 2014 at 6:00 PM

The Commentator on May 21, 2014 at 6:00 PM


Dire Straits on May 21, 2014 at 6:25 PM

I just want to offer a warning to Scott Walker fans. I like some of the stuff he has done and think he is solid Governor for being in a blue state, but….

What are his positions of immigration and common core? What would he do about Obamacare? What gives you the impression that he is the kind of leader that would stay away from the establishment consultants and that he realizes that the GOP is broken?

He has given answers on immigration that are questionable and backtracked, seemed to accept Obamacare at times, and defended the “establishment” against criticism from the “Tea Party”.

The more i research Scott Walker, the less i think he should leave Wisconsin. He would be a great Senator from that state, even, but President….I dont see it.

alecj on May 21, 2014 at 6:45 PM

How many commenters refused to participate owing to your overt exclusion of Sarah Palin?

ShainS on May 21, 2014 at 10:21 AM

*Raises hand* oo_/

…and still wondering why Patrick refuses to answer when questions of the reasons behind the omission have been quite prevalent in the 4 posts of this poll (in comments for both poll posts as well as both result posts). I don’t get the silence when so many are raising the question.

miConsevative on May 21, 2014 at 7:30 PM

I don’t get the silence when so many are raising the question.

miConsevative on May 21, 2014 at 7:30 PM

My guess is he doesn’t have a good, clear, easily defensible reason. Especially given the others included in the poll, while she was excluded.

cs89 on May 21, 2014 at 8:12 PM

I will add the moderators and poll designers have every right to include or exclude whomever they wish.

Likewise, commenters have the right to ask “what were you thinking?”

And, what makes this particular situation egregious is this comment:

” but given that many readers wanted additional candidate options last time ”

Are you really trying to tell me that more folks wanted the other options added than Palin?


Not buying it…

cs89 on May 21, 2014 at 8:19 PM

Posters are making a good point about Palin. She was a governor with tangible results and is more articulately conservative than any of those in this poll, including Scott Walker.

And we already know she can get a crowd anywhere she goes, unlike this parade of sad-sacks.

virgo on May 22, 2014 at 1:10 AM

Sarah Palin is the elephant in HA’s living room.

Opinionator on May 22, 2014 at 3:59 AM