Obama approval 40/59, GOP up 41/34 on generic ballot in Politico battleground-states poll

posted at 8:41 am on May 19, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats looking to hold onto the Senate got bad news from an unusual source this morning. A new Politico poll shows Republicans holding a significant lead in generic Congressional balloting, 41/34, and 43/36 specific to the Senate races. Barack Obama’s approval numbers show him nearly 20 points underwater at 40/59, perhaps his worst ever showing in any major national poll:

President Barack Obama’s job approval slump and voters’ entrenched wariness of his health care law are dogging Democrats ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, and Republicans have captured a lead in the areas home to the year’s most competitive races, according to a new POLITICO poll.

In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference.

Among these critical voters, Obama’s job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over, compared with 39 percent who echo the president’s position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded.

Both Obama’s job approval and the partisan ballot matchup are markedly more negative for Democrats in this poll than other national surveys — a reflection of the political reality that the midterm campaign is being fought on turf that is more challenging for Democrats than the nation as a whole.

Sounds like wonderful news for Republicans — so what’s the catch? In this poll of likely voters in the midterms, the net partisan split is 34% Democrats … and 39% Republicans (26% independents, 1% decline to answer). That’s an unusual D/R/I, even if one is inclined to believe that Republicans are much more likely to turn out in big numbers than Democrats. This poll was conducted in “the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races, as ranked by the University of Virginia Center for Politics,” so these states may lean more Republican as a matter of course, too.

Now, if this accurately represents the turnout model for the midterms, then Democrats are stumbling toward a huge backlash the likes of which may make 2010 look like an autumn frolic. But the turnout model in 2010 was 35/35/29, albeit in a race that had a more even distribution of Senate races in red, blue, and purple states than the midterms this year will be. Still, that’s the closest model we have for this coming midterm, so these approval numbers and generic Congressional gaps may not be quite as pronounced as this one poll shows.

There are a couple of other anomalies from the national-poll picture. First, there is a net 48/52 opposition to same-sex marriage, where most polls over the last couple of years show low-majority support. Perhaps more significantly, nearly a majority of respondents (48%) support full ObamaCare repeal over modifying it (35%), which is a reversal of trends in other polls. In part, that may be because 12% of those with a positive experience with the federal government chalked it up to ObamaCare, but 28% of those who had negative experiences with the federal government cited health care as the reason — twice as high as taxes, and just after the tax season.

On the other hand, there are a couple of warning signals for Republicans and conservatives, too. Comprehensive immigration reform gets a massive 71/29 approval rating in these states, 79% support expanded background checks for gun purchases, and 74% support government action to deal with gender inequality in income. On the other hand, a push for marijuana legalization would meet with 56% opposition.

Even if one takes this with a small grain of salt based on the composition of the sample, it’s bad news almost all the way around for Democrats. They may be able to message on those issues in which they have substantial agreement, but all of those issues are single-digit concerns, even when allowing for multiple responses. The economy and jobs are by far the highest concerns of likely voters in these races, followed by health care. Immigration (3%) and pay equity (2%) barely show up on the radar screen at all. Democrats appear to be rolling into disaster, and the only real debate is its scope.


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Commie Obama/ Democrat Party support %.

Almost a 100% match to the % of people who get government checks.

Who would’a thunk it?

APACHEWHOKNOWS on May 19, 2014 at 8:46 AM

Regardless of the caveats, it still looks good for Republicans. Still plenty o’ time for them to blow it bigger than the Goodyear blimp before November….

apostic on May 19, 2014 at 8:46 AM

Keep dropping…not low enough yet to overcome voting fraud…

PatriotRider on May 19, 2014 at 8:46 AM

Sweet.

But don’t count out the GOP Establishment to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They are good at doing that.

Evi L. Bloggerlady on May 19, 2014 at 8:47 AM

I don’t believe it.

Not that BO doesn’t deserve horrible numbers, but our side is not worthy of any kind of support whatsoever either.

Defenestratus on May 19, 2014 at 8:48 AM

The GOP will blow a tremendous opportunity by pushing amnesty. If they were to instead focus in energy, the economy, and American workers they could crush the Democrats. But no, instead they’d fellating the CoC.

Charlemagne on May 19, 2014 at 8:49 AM

Heh

Now shut the heck up about amnesty GOP you stupid idiots.

gophergirl on May 19, 2014 at 8:52 AM

Long way to go in this election, and GOP leaders have the capacity to screw up even the simplest of issues.

MTF on May 19, 2014 at 8:53 AM

This poll was conducted in “the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races, as ranked by the University of Virginia Center for Politics,” so these states may lean more Republican as a matter of course, too.

Now, if this accurately represents the turnout model for the midterms, then Democrats are stumbling toward a huge backlash the likes of which may make 2010 look like an autumn frolic.

It’s a Politico poll, so it may be suspect to begin with, but based on who they polled I think they admit right up front you can’t compare this to national numbers. A better comparison would be to competitive districts from 2010.

NotCoach on May 19, 2014 at 8:54 AM

UNSKEW THE POLLS!!!

libfreeordie on May 19, 2014 at 8:54 AM

I don’t believe it.

Not that BO doesn’t deserve horrible numbers, but our side is not worthy of any kind of support whatsoever either.

Defenestratus on May 19, 2014 at 8:48 AM

The GOP has no one to blame but themselves. They could’ve spent the last 6 months pledging to their base that if given the Senate, they’d repeal Obamacare, get spending under control, hold the regime accountable for the multitude of scandals, and secure the border. Sure, some of those are pipe dreams as long as Obama still has the power of the veto, but for God’s sake, at least run on that platform!

Instead they’ve backtracked on Obamacare, p-ssyfooted around on the scandals even when in the case of the IRS there’s damning evidence that the entire Democrat Party was involved, rolled back the sequester and cut veterans’ benefits(which takes away their moral high ground in the VA scandal, BTW), and are talking about nothing but amnesty these days.

Folks who call the GOP the stupid party are insulting stupid people.

Doughboy on May 19, 2014 at 8:54 AM

Now, if this accurately represents the turnout model for the midterms, then Democrats are stumbling toward a huge backlash the likes of which may make 2010 look like an autumn frolic.

I’d love nothing more than for that to happen…but I’m skeptical, at least a little bit. The Democratic base turned out in big numbers in 2008 for Obama, as we were coming off two terms of Dubya, who was basically the liberals’ “Public Enemy Number One”. It was all about “Hope and Change”, much of which didn’t happen at the levels that Democrat voters expected.

Now that we’re coming off two terms of the Democrat “savior” with a scant few successes as the Dems see it…it’s just a hunch, but I don’t see the same excitement and/or numbers coming out to vote for any of the possible candidates the Dems can put forth. I’m wondering if the Hilary crowd would still back her like they did in the 2008 primaries.

Then there’s the complete lack of real excitement on the GOP side. Rubio, once the great conservative hopeful, got tossed under the “amnesty” bus. And like these poll numbers show, the GOP better get behind some form of immigration reform. That’ll tick off some of the conservative base…but Repubs better appeal to the majority of the party voters, and as I always say — The GOP needs unity and cohesion amongst the “establishment” and the “Tea Party” and “social conservatives” and the Christian Right….because if there’s not some sort of unity, requiring some give and take on all fronts, the GOP will remain an “also-ran”.

JetBoy on May 19, 2014 at 9:00 AM

There are a couple of other anomalies from the national-poll picture. First, there is a net 48/52 opposition to same-sex marriage, where most polls over the last couple of years show low-majority support.

There are a large number of Americans with a “live and let live” attitude – some even have this attitude towards marriage. However, the Homo Mafia has been pushing hard lately and may have finally overplayed their hand. I think a backlash is brewing.

Megyn Kellys Lipstick on May 19, 2014 at 9:04 AM

UNSKEW THE POLLS!!!

libfreeordie on May 19, 2014 at 8:54 AM

UNSKEW THE STUPID!!!

Here’s a simple question for you. Which of the founding fathers did not subscribe to the communitarian ethos Calhoun deploys to rationalize slavery? *sets sundial*

libfreeordie on August 21, 2013 at 9:30 AM

None. They weren’t nascent Commies like John C. Calhoun, and full blown Commies like you. Don’t you think you need to provide some proof for such a ridiculous smear there Mr. Calhoun? You’re a history perfesser, right?

NotCoach on August 21, 2013 at 9:36 AM

Oh dear God….hold on, give me 10 minutes.

libfreeordie on August 21, 2013 at 9:45 AM

BTW, did you attend that conference of escaped insane asylum patients in Wisconsin?

NotCoach on May 19, 2014 at 9:06 AM

UNSKEW THE POLLS!!!

libfreeordie on May 19, 2014 at 8:54 AM

I don’t disagree. So there. But what I find so confounding is that a 39-R/34-D split is as ridiculous as the 39-D/28-R split we saw a few weeks ago.

Why do pollsters publish polling results from such idiotic samples?

BuckeyeSam on May 19, 2014 at 9:10 AM

Speaking of elections…early voting for the Texan run-offs begin TODAY!
Vote!*If you’re in Texas.*

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:11 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:11 AM

Geeze you annoying little yankee twerp. Not everybody has made up their mind at this point.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:15 AM

And what a bunch of glass is empty, and dirty and not the right type people here on Monday morning.

Y’all make AP look positively cheery.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:17 AM

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:15 AM

Robert Pratt(Local Lubbock talk radio guy) doesn’t like Branch. His not liking Branch helped me make my final choices. I’m voting after I get done @ the dentist.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:21 AM

This Politico Poll is obviously worthless.

Why just last week, on this very site, there
was a “poll” that stated voters STILL preferred
Democrats to Republicans.

So THERE Politico!!!

What’ya think libfree? Do I sound as idiotic as you??

ToddPA on May 19, 2014 at 9:23 AM

Everybody hates 0bamascare. Even single mothers are incensed that they can not afford their insurance premiums.

So why is the “Stupid Party” focused on illegal immigration?

Jayrae on May 19, 2014 at 9:24 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:21 AM

Oh heck, I don’t care who you vote for.

I just find pestering people to vote on the first day of early voting kind of annoying…and twerky.

And if you follow a radio guy, okay.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:32 AM

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:32 AM

Gotta be free-gotta be me. *makes face*

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:34 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:34 AM

And I wouldn’t have it any other way.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:35 AM

Everybody hates 0bamascare. Even single mothers are incensed that they can not afford their insurance premiums.

So why is the “Stupid Party” focused on illegal immigration?

Jayrae on May 19, 2014 at 9:24 AM

Campaign dollars from big business who support cheap labor and the fact that there’s really no difference between either party anymore.

But the GOP says the illegal(s) will vote for them in droves if they pass an amnesty bill – so we got that going for us.. /s/s/s/s

StubbornGreenBurros on May 19, 2014 at 9:41 AM

Say no to amnesty boehner

cmsinaz on May 19, 2014 at 9:45 AM

Then there’s the complete lack of real excitement on the GOP side. Rubio, once the great conservative hopeful, got tossed under the “amnesty” bus. And like these poll numbers show, the GOP better get behind some form of immigration reform. That’ll tick off some of the conservative base…but Repubs better appeal to the majority of the party voters, and as I always say — The GOP needs unity and cohesion amongst the “establishment” and the “Tea Party” and “social conservatives” and the Christian Right….because if there’s not some sort of unity, requiring some give and take on all fronts, the GOP will remain an “also-ran”.

JetBoy on May 19, 2014 at 9:00 AM

Rubio and the rest of the idiot senators threw themselves under the amnesty bus. You mention unity several times, but rather than push unifying issues like Obamacare, the scandals, economy, the GOP party leadership is obsessed with a very divisive issue like amnesty. You want party unity? Stop pushing a 3% issue like amnesty and push for something Americans overwhelmingly want like fixing our economy.

But since the GOP is dead set on creating 8 democrat voters for every 2 with amnesty, increasing unemployment, and hurting American workers, good luck with that and have fun with the GOP minority status for 30 years.

NWConservative on May 19, 2014 at 9:47 AM

Speaking of elections…early voting for the Texan run-offs begin TODAY!
Vote!*If you’re in Texas.*

annoyinglittletwerp on May 19, 2014 at 9:11 AM

So does Texas have a voter ID law? Just askin’

Happy Nomad on May 19, 2014 at 9:52 AM

Funny, a 5 point sampling edge to Republicans and the Media will write this poll off as wildly biased and meaningless. And yet put out a poll with a 12 point Democrat advantage and there is no mention other than to declare the poll a scientific fact.

Regardless, I am assuming the Democrats will employ the same TABULATION HACK they used in 2012 to rapture 16 million Republicans voters the day before the polls opened so that despite every poll expecting massive Republican turnout, it was shockingly low.

mitchellvii on May 19, 2014 at 10:06 AM

And what a bunch of glass is empty, and dirty and not the right type people here on Monday morning.

Y’all make AP look positively cheery.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 9:17 AM

It’s understandable when the GOP has become “a party that likes to call in airstrikes on its own positions”. (h/t Kurt Schlichter)

If the party could be trusted to take the fight to the enemy all day, every day, we all might feel a little more confident.

lynncgb on May 19, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Rubio and the rest of the idiot senators threw themselves under the amnesty bus. You mention unity several times, but rather than push unifying issues like Obamacare, the scandals, economy, the GOP party leadership is obsessed with a very divisive issue like amnesty. You want party unity? Stop pushing a 3% issue like amnesty and push for something Americans overwhelmingly want like fixing our economy.

But since the GOP is dead set on creating 8 democrat voters for every 2 with amnesty, increasing unemployment, and hurting American workers, good luck with that and have fun with the GOP minority status for 30 years.

NWConservative on May 19, 2014 at 9:47 AM

Rubio, once the rising star of conservatives, is under the bus because of one issue…immigration. He’s certainly never proposed any blanket amnesty either…but offer a possible solution that isn’t “deport ‘em immediately, no exceptions!”. How you arrive at a 3% number over this, when the polls say it’s supported by nearly 3 in 4 Americans, I don’t know. If someone like Rubio can be pushed aside over immigration reform…it must be a big issue.

And the only thing keeping Dems in power is the divisiveness of the GOP. It happened with McCain…it happened with Romney (to a bit of a lesser extent)…and it’ll happen again unless we can bring GOPers together. If we don’t, may has well hang it up.

JetBoy on May 19, 2014 at 10:10 AM

UNSKEW THE POLLS!!!

libfreeordie on May 19, 2014 at 8:54 AM

So libfree can enjoy an even bigger beat down!

dominigan on May 19, 2014 at 10:12 AM

So does Texas have a voter ID law? Just askin’

Happy Nomad on May 19, 2014 at 9:52 AM

Yes, and even in inner city Dallas my wife and I had to show our picture ID’s.

It felt pretty damn good.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 10:18 AM

Polls are so often little more than distractions from pols simply doing the right thing… like living your life by the 10-day weather forecast. Less polls, more principles please.

MT on May 19, 2014 at 10:32 AM

B b b b but Marist/NBC says Pryor is crushing Cotton in Arkansas….

Texas Zombie on May 19, 2014 at 10:43 AM

Yes, and even in inner city Dallas my wife and I had to show our picture ID’s.

It felt pretty damn good.

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 10:18 AM

Saw this the other day:

http://i.imgur.com/1qVc978.jpg

JetBoy on May 19, 2014 at 10:44 AM

JetBoy on May 19, 2014 at 10:44 AM

I like it!

cozmo on May 19, 2014 at 10:48 AM

At least 15% too high on the approval rating…

albill on May 19, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Hey Libfree why don’t you ever answer OLDCOACH,,, after all its closing on to a year since he has been waiting. The rest of us would love to year your answer.

garydt on May 19, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Wow when its coming from Dem Politico it is bad fir Obama. This means his numbers are probably in the 30′s in truth. Politico is so in the tank for Obama it isn’t funny.

neyney on May 19, 2014 at 11:46 AM

I will believe the pendulum has swung when it swings.

Bmore on May 19, 2014 at 11:47 AM

Looks so good Mitch and Boehner may be able to start amnesty a little earlier than planned.

butch on May 19, 2014 at 11:55 AM

KOCH!!!!!!!!
RACIST!!!!!!
SEXIST!!!!!!

24/7 until November.

jukin3 on May 19, 2014 at 11:55 AM

They’re counting about 10% (probably more) of the new Indies still as Demos.

The Choom Gang is well below Dubya in real numbers

formwiz on May 19, 2014 at 11:56 AM

…40%?…40%!

KOOLAID2 on May 19, 2014 at 12:27 PM

Comprehensive immigration reform gets a massive 71/29 approval rating in these states, 79% support expanded background checks for gun purchases, and 74% support government action to deal with gender inequality in income.

Translation: people are so stupid and/or uniformed that reality dare not intrude.

We are well and truly screwed.

Physics Geek on May 19, 2014 at 12:51 PM

It’s starting to look like 2010 redux, despite all the efforts of the Inside-The-Beltway-GOPE spineless empty scrotums. These imbeciles are throwing away the chance of a historic blow out because they don’t want to do anything for the next two years. All they want to do is control the committees and their budgets, not work to fix the country. They’re not called The Stupid Party for nothing.

conservative hispanic on May 19, 2014 at 1:28 PM

The 39/34 GOP/Dem poll split compared with the 35/35 national split in 2010 voters may actually be somewhat Dem leaning considering that this poll is of likely voters in predominately red states.

What is interesting from the poll detail is that 41% of voters strongly disapprove of President Obama compared with only 15% strong approval.

Politico does not provide cross tabs, so there is no way of determining the enthusiasm for voting in each of the partisan groups.

Bart DePalma on May 19, 2014 at 1:40 PM

Poll, no poll, Eleanor Clift’s panties are the color of mustard.

Schadenfreude on May 19, 2014 at 1:49 PM

Honestly, I don’t even buy THIS poll. Truth be told, it’s probably more like 30/69 for The One, but we can’t let the truth be told now can we??

Bob Davis on May 19, 2014 at 2:47 PM

Danger for D-rats

Schadenfreude on May 19, 2014 at 3:00 PM

Rubio, once the rising star of conservatives, is under the bus because of one issue…immigration. He’s certainly never proposed any blanket amnesty either…but offer a possible solution that isn’t “deport ‘em immediately, no exceptions!”. How you arrive at a 3% number over this, when the polls say it’s supported by nearly 3 in 4 Americans, I don’t know. If someone like Rubio can be pushed aside over immigration reform…it must be a big issue.

And the only thing keeping Dems in power is the divisiveness of the GOP. It happened with McCain…it happened with Romney (to a bit of a lesser extent)…and it’ll happen again unless we can bring GOPers together. If we don’t, may has well hang it up.

JetBoy on May 19, 2014 at 10:10 AM

Immigration is a top priority for 3% of Americans in polling. It isn’t even a top priority for Hispanics. But for the GOP leadership and the Chamber of Commerce, but I repeat myself, it is THE top priority. The only thing dividing the GOP is the ineffective liberal party leadership.

And again Rubio threw himself under the bus when he did a 180 degree turnaround in office. I don’t care that you believe in some hypothetical world that what he proposed wasn’t amnesty, because in the real world as implemented, it would be. And given how much fight the GOP has against Obama and his socialist minions, republican supporters have no faith that they would force any future administration to actually stick to the law.

It is important that this be made clear. Amnesty in any form only helps Democrats to the tune of 8 new voters for every 2 the GOP gets. You complain about division in the GOP, yet it is small potatoes if an amnesty gets passed.

All the pet issues for conservatives means NOTHING if the Democrats are in perpetual majority because of amnesty. Both fiscal and social conservatism are out the window. Guns? Gone. Abortion? On demand. Small government? Heck no.

All because the leadership wants to make amnesty the GO TO issue this year instead of what actually matters to Americans. Screw Our Supporters! Screw America! Is apparently the GOP platform.

They can get their new base to vote for them. All two of them.

NWConservative on May 19, 2014 at 4:03 PM