Dem poll: Half of young Obama voters don’t plan to vote blue in November

posted at 12:41 pm on May 16, 2014 by Guy Benson

Behold, yet another data point indicating that Obama’s 2012 re-election coalition is splintering or flat-out apathetic heading into the midterm cycle, via the Washington Post:

MillenialDem3

As this graph illustrates, less than a third of Obama’s 2012 Millennial voters say they’ll “definitely” vote for Democrats this fall.  Almost as many have abandoned the party label completely, either by shifting to independent status or by supporting Republicans.  When this Democratic pollster tabulates the data, he finds that only half of all the young Obama voters surveyed will definitely, probably, or maybe vote for Democrats in the midterms.  The rest plan to sit at home, or to back other candidates.  In 2010, Millennial turnout dropped significantly compared to 2008, and the gap between the two parties among those who did vote narrowed considerably.  The strategist’s advice to Democrats, therefore, is to “heavily invest” in turning out “progressive Millennials,” pronto.  If the party heeds his counsel, expect to hear a lot about gay marriage and birth control over the next six months. Also via WaPo, here’s a chart that employs the (fairly Democrat-friendly) NBC/WSJ polling series to track this year’s fundamentals, comparing the current numbers to surveys conducted before previous midterm waves. Chris Cillizza says the results “should scare Democrats:”

Those indicators — which are also reflected in other public polling — would certainly seem suggest that Democrats are cruisin’ for a bruisin’ this fall.  But lest conservatives start counting chickens, allow me to float two friendly reminders: (1) The most vulnerable Senate Democrat incumbent, on paper at least, is leading his (highly impressive) Republican challenger by double digits according to some polls, though others show a very tight race.  (2) Republican-held Senate seats in Georgia and Kentucky aren’t necessarily gimmes either.  I’ll add one more: Even if young Obama voters do blow off the midterm elections this year, they sure seem pretty susceptible to hype over famous presidential candidates with cool friends and vague, history-making campaign themes.  What could go wrong?*  

*AP, feel free to just FedEx me the Eeyore crown whenever you have a spare moment.


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It won’t matter. The GOP is working diligently to screw it all up.

Bmore on May 16, 2014 at 12:43 PM

Clearly, they have become RACISTS!

ToddPA on May 16, 2014 at 12:46 PM

Because they got out of college, and either didn’t find a job, or found one and had to pay taxes. Always great to advocate for higher taxes until you have to pay them.

melle1228 on May 16, 2014 at 12:47 PM

I’m not exactly enthused to vote either given the GOP’s impending cave to amnesty and nearly everything else Obama wants.

Face it, NEITHER party represents the American People anymore. They represent DC.

ConstantineXI on May 16, 2014 at 12:48 PM

In other news……D.C. was built on a swamp.

Bmore on May 16, 2014 at 12:48 PM

No problem. Just roll out more dead and multiple state voters.

teacherman on May 16, 2014 at 12:48 PM

Pass or even attempt to pass amnesty and I hope the Democrats sweep the table, and I will vote that way.

casuist on May 16, 2014 at 12:52 PM

It won’t matter. The GOP is working diligently to screw it all up.

Bmore on May 16, 2014 at 12:43 PM

Yep, I know there will be shoe ready to drop about 30 days before election day.

Even if the Republicans don’t self-destruct, with the MSM in the back pocket of the DNC and White House, there will be some revelation to do serious damage to Republicans, which would end probably up being proven false. Then a couple of weeks after the election the ‘misunderstanding’ will be cleared up (or maybe it will go on for years, like the Benghazi cover-up).

s1im on May 16, 2014 at 12:52 PM

*AP, feel free to just FedEx me the Eeyore crown whenever you have a spare moment.

Eeyore is donkey and is probably a Democrat.

Steve Z on May 16, 2014 at 12:53 PM


Face it, NEITHER party represents the American People anymore. They represent DC.

Precisely. Pass amnesty and I would argue Let It Burn.

casuist on May 16, 2014 at 12:53 PM

Pass or even attempt to pass amnesty and I hope the Democrats sweep the table, and I will vote that way.

casuist on May 16, 2014 at 12:52 PM

I call this switching from “Let it Burn” to “Set it on Fire”.

And I am considering doing the same thing.

ConstantineXI on May 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM

They got the “Oooh, I get to vote for the first black president!” out of their systems.

Something tells me they won’t bother telling their grandchildren that particular detail of their life story.

CurtZHP on May 16, 2014 at 12:55 PM

Youth got a reality check from obama, after being snookered, twice.

Schadenfreude on May 16, 2014 at 12:56 PM

Forward.

I hope he scrooms you for 100 years.

Schadenfreude on May 16, 2014 at 12:56 PM

hey HotAir, when will you put this up as a Thread!!???

LMAO!!!! THIS is the THREAD OF THE DAY!!

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/05/15/f-psycho-flurry-of-tweets-target-sarah-palin-after-she-tweets-how-an-ar-15-makes-a-great-gift/

ToddPA on May 16, 2014 at 12:56 PM

ToddPA, the Marine sits in jail, in Tijuana, his AR-15,and a couple of other jewels are confiscated, and Boner cavorts with Valerie Jarrett, for her underling, obama.

Hell will never be hot enough for all of them.

Schadenfreude on May 16, 2014 at 12:58 PM

War on____________

cmsinaz on May 16, 2014 at 12:59 PM

Somebody at Hot Air is doing some serious fantasizing with the data…
The majority will all end up voting for a Democrat in November.

albill on May 16, 2014 at 12:59 PM

Younger voters historically have not voted in mid-terms

That won’t change in November

Redford on May 16, 2014 at 1:01 PM

LIVs’ LI will be the Democrats’ undoing. Unless the Repubicks’ devolution into Democrats Lite keeps going.

22044 on May 16, 2014 at 1:03 PM

ToddPA, the Marine sits in jail, in Tijuana, his AR-15,and a couple of other jewels are confiscated, and Boner cavorts with Valerie Jarrett, for her underling, obama.

Hell will never be hot enough for all of them.

Schadenfreude on May 16, 2014 at 12:58 PM

I know Schad..it’s terrible what’s going on every damn day!

ToddPA on May 16, 2014 at 1:04 PM

Dem poll: Half of young Obama voters don’t plan to vote blue in November

Too bad ALL of them didn’t stay the hell home Nov 2012!

GarandFan on May 16, 2014 at 1:05 PM

Support for Democrats is not shrinking, their appeal is just becoming more selective.

Frank Lib on May 16, 2014 at 1:06 PM

Support for Democrats is not shrinking, their appeal is just becoming more selective.

Frank Lib on May 16, 2014 at 1:06 PM

Yeah. They only want bat-sh!t crazy thugs voting for them.

CurtZHP on May 16, 2014 at 1:11 PM

What could go wrong?

Uhhh, apathetic millennial Republican voters?

parke on May 16, 2014 at 1:16 PM

If Boehner shoves Shamnesty through before the election expect plenty of conservatives to rush to the polls to vote Democrat.

Many of us intend to repay the corrupt gopE with payment in kind.

Actions have consequences.

Jayrae on May 16, 2014 at 1:17 PM

Someone here frequently posts the following comment:

“The GOP will disappoint you.”

I tend to agree. And I’d like to add a new recurring saying to Hot Air’s conversations:

“The Millennials will disappoint the Democrats.”

Gawd, I look at their stupid cheering and smiling in that photo. They have no idea what they’re doing, and yet they vote. Don’t you just want to slap them?

brentspolemics on May 16, 2014 at 1:18 PM

Dem poll: Half of young Obama voters don’t plan to vote blue in November

ObamaCare mandates have provided all the needed personal information..SS#’s..addresses, names etc, to process all the need absentee ballots or outright fraudulent votes. In a eligible voting pool where half the voters don’t vote, fraud could not be proven until well after “elected” people have been sworn in and taken active position.
To paraphrase Bill Clinton, “Obama is the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on the American people”.
“The Audacity of Hope”..Audacity, indeed.
This is the final chance to stop it. They will stop at nothing to succeed.

Mimzey on May 16, 2014 at 1:19 PM

And yet Bonehead will hand the Dems 2014 on a silver platter by passing amnesty. Why? Also why before the election? What faustian bargain have these RINOs made with the Dems?

neyney on May 16, 2014 at 1:21 PM

While this Poll does look good for Republican chances, remember to never count your chickens before they cross the road.

Johnnyreb on May 16, 2014 at 1:24 PM

Don’t you just want to slap them?

Over and over and over…and then once more…

PatriotRider on May 16, 2014 at 1:26 PM

I call this switching from “Let it Burn” to “Set it on Fire”.

And I am considering doing the same thing.

ConstantineXI on May 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM

Yep. Count me in on that too. Some things just can’t be fixed beyond a certain point and amnesty will be the tipping point. I’m ready to flick my bic.

Harbingeing on May 16, 2014 at 1:36 PM

“Prefer Democrats”, “Prefer Republicans”… it is such an outdated split. For millenials, one should use “Prefer free stuff”, “Prefer bong”, “Prefer gay sex”, and “Prefer freedom”. You’d be shocked how unpopular the fourth category will be.

Rix on May 16, 2014 at 1:41 PM

I don’t see anything good from this pole. After everything that has happened 3/4 are still Dems. Just a portion of them are mad at the Preazy and won’t vote in the midterms. Only 1/4 have seen enough from the current admin to decide they don’t like what that party is offering.

How do we know the reasons behind 24% not voting? Could be something similar to unions withdrawing support from obamacare. It isn’t because it is terrible policy, it is because it doesn’t go far enough. I don’t trust any poll.

JAGonzo on May 16, 2014 at 1:50 PM

And yet Bonehead will hand the Dems 2014 on a silver platter by passing amnesty. Why? Also why before the election? What faustian bargain have these RINOs made with the Dems?

neyney on May 16, 2014 at 1:21 PM

If Boehner only wanted to throw away one election by passing amnesty, that would be a problem, but we might be able to live with it. But that’s not what amnesty means.

Amnesty means he’s handing the Dems 2020, 2024, 2028, and future elections on a silver platter, because it means that the Democrats get a net gain of millions of new voters … and those millions of voters are also going to be enthusiastic supporters of increased immigration and future amnesties … so we can expect another amnesty every few years after that.

J.S.K. on May 16, 2014 at 1:51 PM

pole

Gah. Correction.

JAGonzo on May 16, 2014 at 1:52 PM

I don’t see anything good from this pole. After everything that has happened 3/4 are still Dems.

Well, it is a poll of Obama voters. At least this means that the Republicans aren’t the only party which has trouble holding on to its base.

J.S.K. on May 16, 2014 at 1:53 PM

Amnesty means he’s handing the Dems 2020, 2024, 2028, and future elections on a silver platter, because it means that the Democrats get a net gain of millions of new voters … and those millions of voters are also going to be enthusiastic supporters of increased immigration and future amnesties … so we can expect another amnesty every few years after that.

J.S.K. on May 16, 2014 at 1:51 PM

Don’t worry, somewhere circa 2024, when life quality here will drop to Zimbabwean levels, the third-worlders will realize that they’re wasting their breath and money coming here.

Rix on May 16, 2014 at 1:57 PM

Axelrod, Come on. Big trouble, be quick, bring dead voter registration cards. P.S. Bring reg cards

Roy Rogers on May 16, 2014 at 2:07 PM

Well, it is a poll of Obama voters. At least this means that the Republicans aren’t the only party which has trouble holding on to its base.

J.S.K. on May 16, 2014 at 1:53 PM

Difference is the dems aren’t actively trying to piss off their base.

CurtZHP on May 16, 2014 at 2:09 PM

The Stupidest Generation.

jdpaz on May 16, 2014 at 2:10 PM

By the way, if any young people read this – never vote for a Democrat again. If you’re struggling to find work, start a career, get ahead – it is entirely the fault of Obama and his fellow miscreants in the Senate and House. All the Ds and many of the Rs as well.

22044 on May 16, 2014 at 2:12 PM

If they’ve lost a quarter already and another quarter stays home, the vote fraud machine will have to start digging up Federalists.

Because they got out of college, and either didn’t find a job, or found one and had to pay taxes. Always great to advocate for higher taxes until you have to pay them.

melle1228 on May 16, 2014 at 12:47 PM

That’s always been how you make Republicans.

formwiz on May 16, 2014 at 2:44 PM

I call this switching from “Let it Burn” to “Set it on Fire”.

And I am considering doing the same thing.

ConstantineXI on May 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM

I will bring the gasoline. Wait, Gov Moonbeam said it was climate change that starts fires?

libbyscooter on May 16, 2014 at 2:47 PM

Time for Jim “Double Dream Hands – UpTwinkles” Messina to make another video, or tweet, or post, or whatever it is he does…

Marcola on May 16, 2014 at 3:36 PM

If Boehner shoves Shamnesty through before the election expect plenty of conservatives to rush to the polls to vote Democrat.

Many of us intend to repay the corrupt gopE with payment in kind.

Actions have consequences.

Jayrae on May 16, 2014 at 1:17 PM

Mmm, I hate to sound anything like the Merideaths, the KingGelds and the Miss Manners of Hot Air, but if the Pubs shove the amnesty knife in our backs this summer, please-

don’t vote Democrat. For this reason…

The GOPe dopes will discern nothing from a bunch of extra Democratix votes.

If conservatives vote third party, at least it can be pointed out where the conservative votes went to, and the GOPe’s noses can rubbed in it. Not that nose-rubbing accomplishes anything either, but its liable to be the only joy we get out of the next 2 elections.

Dolce Far Niente on May 16, 2014 at 3:59 PM

3) The GOP may yet cut its own throat by pushing through amnesty

There Goes the Neighborhood on May 16, 2014 at 5:45 PM

Once the Dems run the chance to vote for the first woman President (Warren or Clinton) the young sheeple will fall in line once again.

Decoski on May 16, 2014 at 7:38 PM

You’d be shocked how unpopular the fourth category will be.
Rix on May 16, 2014 at 1:41 PM

You know, somehow, I really am still shocked about that. I mean, it’s nice to get free things (not when others are being forced to pay for them, though), but I will always prefer that I be free over my things being free.

Given how rebellious young people normally are, you’d think they’d be all in favor of freedom, but so many of them seem to not understand how much of their freedoms, and those of others, are being curtailed to provide so called “free” stuff.

Cheshire_Kat on May 17, 2014 at 12:04 AM

I call this switching from “Let it Burn” to “Set it on Fire”.

And I am considering doing the same thing.

ConstantineXI on May 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM

Me, too. Then I will renounce my United States citizenship.

Brendon Carr on May 18, 2014 at 4:26 AM