Poll: Mitch McConnell leads Matt Bevin by 32 in Kentucky GOP primary

posted at 1:21 pm on May 12, 2014 by Allahpundit

That’s among likely voters too, although when you’re looking at a lead this big, it doesn’t much matter which slice of adults you’re using.

I thought next Tuesday’s primary night open thread would be rip-roaring food-fight fun between “true conservatives” and RINOs. Instead, we’re destined for a snoozer. Note the tea-party numbers, in particular. Bevin never got traction even among his ostensible core constituency.

ky

This poll from Marist was the first taken of the race by a major pollster since February and only the third taken in Kentucky this year but McConnell’s been comfortably ahead in all of them, ranging from 26 to 42 points. People who are watching the race closely seemed to know the score even without any recent (public) data, though. The Senate Conservatives Fund, which McConnell had vowed to “crush” because of its spending against Republican incumbents, stopped airing ads in Kentucky last week, a sign that they were giving up on the race.

How come Bevin never caught on? Lots of reasons. McConnell had sky-high name recognition and a huge war chest, of course, but his team also cannily buried Bevin’s messaging under numerous low-grade controversies (including cockfighting), dubbing him “Bailout Bevin” — even though it was McConnell who voted for TARP in 2008. And despite being endorsed by several tea-party commentators and outside groups, Bevin never landed any big names among Republican politicians. No Palin, no Ted Cruz (who said he’d stay out of races involving GOP incumbents but added that that wasn’t set in stone), and of course no Rand Paul, the one guy more than any other who could have gotten Kentucky tea partiers’ attention on Bevin’s behalf. Instead Rand endorsed McConnell. The establishment will be grateful.

Key question now: How much will hard feelings among Bevin fans hurt McConnell in the general election against Alison Lundergan Grimes? If you believe Marist, quite a bit. Check out the percentage she’s pulling among conservatives against Mitch the Knife.

ky2

McConnell leads her by one whereas Bevin trails her by nine — thanks in part to the fact that 28 percent of conservatives say they’d vote for Grimes if he’s the nominee. Those are, presumably, Mitch fans, feeling as hypothetically disgruntled about losing the primary as Bevin fans will feel next Tuesday night. But all of that is evanescent; hard feelings will soften over the next few months, especially as excitement builds on the right for what might be another wave this fall, and McConnell will open up a safe-ish lead — probably. Read this Nate Cohn piece from March to see just how strong McConnell’s position is. Beating him in this state, under these particular political circumstances, would be “all but unprecedented.” The only hitch is the fact that he’s unpopular at home, with both his job approval and favorable rating underwater. To win comfortably he needs to make nice again with independents. Otherwise, it’ll be close.


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The dead enders are actually making conservatives look a lot weaker than they are. Too bad. Somehow they turned 40% into 15%.

cimbri on May 12, 2014 at 7:15 PM

I guess that would mean we deserve special protection. I dunno, I don’t get liberal.

Bmore on May 12, 2014 at 7:15 PM

that moment tea partiers realize they are in the vast, vast minority…

libfreeordie on May 12, 2014 at 7:09 PM

So were the abolitionists, slavenowandie…

“Majorities” don’t determine either justice or truth…

ebrown2 on May 12, 2014 at 7:29 PM

WTF is wrong with you people in Kentucky?

F_This on May 12, 2014 at 7:34 PM

Polls over the years have TP popularity fluctuate. It’s around 43% republican approval(? – from memory of an earlier thread so double check).

Anyway 20-30 % national approval is not the majority but it’s better then numbers for democrats or pro late term abortionists, or progressives(15% at their high water mark)…
It is still a significant voting block. It beats the crap out of self identified republican moderates.

The TEA party brand will still put people in office. The NAACP and ACORN brand not so much anymore. And it has been battered before and returns. Not because the TEA party is so great but because THERE IS NO ONE ELSE FIGHTING AGAINST THE OLIGARCHY (h/t yellin)**is she a tinfoil purist?

The good guys support the Tea party. The bad guys denounce them.

BoxHead1 on May 12, 2014 at 7:51 PM

democrats progressive democrats

BoxHead1 on May 12, 2014 at 7:52 PM

Unlike Grimes right, who will oppose her party & Majority Floor of Leader… yes I see it the We Win By Losing Strategy… we shall halt the War on Coal by electing someone who will support it… we will defeat Minimum Wage Increases by voting for someone who supports it… we shall repeal ObamaCare by electing one more vote tosh sustain it… we shall prevail on a host of issues by electing someone who does not agree with us whatsoever….
JFKY on May 12, 2014 at 3:48 PM

Sounds like the Turtle to me. Getting rid of McConnell is a good start to fixing this country

Brock Robamney on May 12, 2014 at 7:59 PM

Fact: If you vote for more of the same….. you will get : More of the same.

CW on May 12, 2014 at 8:05 PM

that moment tea partiers realize they are in the vast, vast minority…

libfreeordie on May 12, 2014 at 7:09 PM

Minorities are bad now?

vlad martel on May 12, 2014 at 8:10 PM

He’s ahead by 32? Is that in pounds or are we using the metric system on this one? His face could use a diet.

xNavigator on May 12, 2014 at 8:14 PM

McConnell is ripe for the picking. An incumbent in a red state polling less than 50% means an easy pickup for the Democrats

Brock Robamney on May 12, 2014 at 8:29 PM

So libfree thinks minority status means nothing?

Noted.

Midas on May 12, 2014 at 8:32 PM

No.. it’s not an end game. Both him and Boehner actually had opponents this year.

They shouldn’t be celebrating. It’s only the beginning. It’s not going to get better from here on out.. it’s only going to get worse.

JellyToast on May 12, 2014 at 8:41 PM

McConnell ’14 – because the other candidate is even worse!

Zuwie on May 12, 2014 at 8:45 PM

Whatever is wrong with Kentucky is also wrong with the rest of the country. It happened in VA, NC, OH and now it looks like it is going to happen in Kentucky. So as Americans we are going to get what we deserve . . . more of the same.

Thank goodness most of the Greatest Generation, our parents are not around to see how stupid we are.

I just feel for my kids because they will have it even worse because of this.

Nat George on May 12, 2014 at 8:53 PM

I just feel for my kids because they will have it even worse because of this.

Nat George on May 12, 2014 at 8:53 PM

If you raise independent, ethical, solid kids, they’ll stand out and succeed as the culture around them crumbles. They’ll be fine.

xNavigator on May 12, 2014 at 8:56 PM

Bevin dissed the Tea Party……..

But regardless the Tea Party as it’s called is dead, dead, dead.

Because:
They have been gutless and not publicly challenged the wretched gop leadership in either House or Senate. So what good did electing 60 “tea party freshman” do exactly?

And you can kiss the Republic goodbye. Boehner and his fellow whores for the Chamber of Commerce will either sell us out on Amnesty or the DOTUS Barack Obama will issue a “humane” executive order and let 20 million illegals in scot free and a court will give them full voting rights before the November elections. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama doesn’t also tacitly or even more publicly invite even MORE MEXICANS into the country and we effectively have no border with Mexico…….

…….and the goals of the NAFTA / Bush / Progressive /Business whores politicians will have achieved their goal. A full integration of the U.S. and 90 million Hispanic low wage slaves for businesses to exploit.

VIVA the United States of North America!!!!

PappyD61 on May 12, 2014 at 8:59 PM

…….and we’re worried about Benghazi, the Pope and his redistribution or Crimea or Beyonce’s trip to the Met Gala or the NFL Homosexual player or even 2016?

You can kiss it goodbye by November folks.

PappyD61 on May 12, 2014 at 9:00 PM

If you raise independent, ethical, solid kids, they’ll stand out and succeed as the culture around them crumbles. They’ll be fine.

xNavigator on May 12, 2014 at 8:56 PM

All the easier will they be targeted by the worthless teat-sucking cretins around them.

Success will not be tolerated.

Midas on May 12, 2014 at 9:41 PM

Thank goodness most of the Greatest Generation, our parents are not around to see how stupid we are.

I just feel for my kids because they will have it even worse because of this.

Nat George on May 12, 2014 at 8:53 PM

My brother and I went to the cemetery yesterday for Mother’s Day and we both said the same thing. My dad was a WWII vet and to think that all of the sacrifice that generation made will all have been in vain when we become a third world cesspool. The head of the Chamber of Crony Commerce has issued his decree, the GOP passes amnesty or don’t bother putting up a candidate in 2016. I’ve got news for them, the GOP passes amnesty and it won’t matter who they put up.

TxAnn56 on May 12, 2014 at 9:55 PM

Where are they going to live and work? You think you’re going to pull up the drawbridge?

DFCtomm on May 12, 2014 at 10:02 PM

My brother and I went to the cemetery yesterday for Mother’s Day and we both said the same thing. My dad was a WWII vet and to think that all of the sacrifice that generation made will all have been in vain when we become a third world cesspool. The head of the Chamber of Crony Commerce has issued his decree, the GOP passes amnesty or don’t bother putting up a candidate in 2016. I’ve got news for them, the GOP passes amnesty and it won’t matter who they put up.

TxAnn56 on May 12, 2014 at 9:55 PM

They were a great generation, but not perfect. They did after all, give us the Babyboomers.

DFCtomm on May 12, 2014 at 10:03 PM

that moment tea partiers realize they are in the vast, vast minority

libfreeordie on May 12, 2014 at 7:09 PM

Doesn’t seem to affect the gay mafia from having an inordinate amount of say, does it perfessor?

arnold ziffel on May 12, 2014 at 10:04 PM

that moment tea partiers realize they are in the vast, vast minority…
libfreeordie on May 12, 2014 at 7:09 PM
Not exactly but keep telling yourself that.

sorrowen on May 12, 2014 at 11:36 PM

Poop smell.

J.B. Say on May 13, 2014 at 12:10 AM

Ive already got one foot out the door.

alecj on May 12, 2014 at 5:28 P

Since McConnell has done more for the conservative cause, for America, and for the Republican Party than a million whining idiot losers like you ever have, don’t let the screen door hit on the way out, Zippy.

Adjoran on May 13, 2014 at 12:18 AM

that moment tea partiers realize they are in the vast, vast minority…

libfreeordie on May 12, 2014 at 7:09 PM

These nuts aren’t the tea party, they just tried to hijack it.

The Tea Party was a grassroots movement against handouts, bailouts, and debt. It later “adopted” opposition to ObamaCare, which anyone with half a working brain could tell would never EVER work. And it had widespread support, over 60% approval and over 40% among Democrats.

◦○◌☼

Then groups began stealing the name for their own benefit. Many of these used an anti-GOP “establishment” theme, which was NEVER part of the original Tea Party protests. They have driven our approval down to under 40% by their bad behavior.

◦○◌☼

And they are by and large making suckers out of those who foolishly support them by mistaking them for genuine Tea Party causes. They aren’t. Lee Stranahan has done a devastating series on the Tea Party Fund, just through public records.

But another recent study found other groups like Tea Party Express, Tea Party Patriots, Freedom Works, and Tea Party America don’t actually work as “activists.” They spend their money on high salaries (for their revenues) for founders and their families and friends, expensive offices, lavish travel and other expenses, and spend little or nothing on candidates, campaigns, or political advertising.

◦○◌☼

Unfortunately, being unorganized, there is no way for the real Tea Party people to cast out the pretenders and kooks, except by not supporting them and ridiculing them like I am here, pointing out no one ever elected any of them to speak for the Tea Party.

Adjoran on May 13, 2014 at 12:29 AM

Totally OT, but I lurk at Ace of Spades fairly regularly. I haven’t been able to access the site all day and wondered if anyone knows what’s up…..

norway salmon on May 13, 2014 at 12:33 AM

Turnout in Kentucky in 2010 was 30.9%. Number of registered Democrats in Kentucky = 516853. Number of registered Republicans in Kentucky = 369621. Number of registered independents in Kentucky = 73078.

If turnout is the same in 2014 as it was in 2010, and if the poll above is accurate, below are the results:

McConnell Democrats 98202
McConnell Republicans 306785
McConnell Independents 33616
Total McConnell 438603

Grimes Democrats 387640
Grimes Republicans 33266
Grimes Independents 29962
Total Grimes 450868

Grimes ahead by 12265 votes.

SOURCE: Registration totals and 2010 turnout percentage are from elect.ky.gov.

gocatholic on May 13, 2014 at 2:15 AM

That’s a win for the enemy. And don’t say Mitch McConnell isn’t an enemy; he says he is.

David Blue on May 13, 2014 at 3:11 AM

A few readers here reference Kentucky, dem governor, Obamacare, high democrat registration.

In Kentucky 1 million voters voted for Romney and 679,000 voted for Obama. Perhaps that will hold the day. Interestingly, in Kentucky, Romney got more votes than McCain did, and Obama got fewer in 2012 than in 2008.

With the War on Capitalism and the War on Romney the CEO with as much money as Croesus, (I mean, as rich as Gwyneth Paltrow)

I would have thought Kentucky might be a place where people might not vote for the guy that fired people and let their spouses die. This could have been a state where the REAL conservatives stayed home, but no. The vote for GWB matches Romney matches McCain and the vote for Kerry matches Obama.

All the info here was taken from CNN presidential results, online.

The fact that Alison Lundergren Grimes father was a democrat party boss and they can get Bill Clinton in to campaign is probably responsible for the polling data. I think McConnell appeals to their good old boy feeling in Kentucky. (My uncle Wendell was from Kentucky.) It seems to go over party lines, and I think they must still think of Clinton as Bubba.

I think we are wasting our time going after McConnell, we need him to win, and perhaps someone can tell him if we push him through, that he hands the gavel to someone articulate and charismatic. This ain’t your daddy’s Senate, the media plays hardball and they play for keeps.

Fleuries on May 13, 2014 at 7:40 AM

that moment tea partiers realize they are in the vast, vast minority…

libfreeordie on May 12, 2014 at 7:09 PM

Minorities are bad now?

vlad martel on May 12, 2014 at 8:10 PM

Of course the position that people should have to WORK for a living rather than sit on their butts and have their food paid for BY people who work for a living will always be less popular, and a minority opinion.

Government handouts are seductive. A trap. A trap that traps families for GENERATIONS. A trap that is very difficult to get out of because the bureaucracy DOESNT WANT YOU TO LEAVE WELFARE.

But the fact of the matter is, popular or not, minority or majority, the conservative position IS going to win out by necessity. It’s a numbers game. This country is carrying over 17 trillion in on the books debt. If government had to account for debt like any private entity would have to do (or go to prison) it would have to admit nearly 100 trillion in OFF THE BOOKS UNFUNDED LIABILITY.

That cannot be sustained, especially at the rate of adding about 1 trillion more to the on the books debt and doing nothing to address the unfunded liability off the books debt.

In fact, it’s a jenga tower. It’s going to collapse at any moment.

One way or another, the socialist welfare state IS COMING TO AN END. The question is, do you want to do it humanely (wean them off, create jobs so they can work), or do you want it done inhumanely (ride it till it crashes)?

ConstantineXI on May 13, 2014 at 7:51 AM

If the Tea Party wants to run the party they will have to play by the rules and start at the bottom and take over from within. Become caucus chairman and precinct chairman and get elected delegates to the various conventions. They will not win by just griping about the outcome. It’s a long campaign not a insurgent takeover. But at least they are forcing the party to the right. Better than nothing. Every year the Tea Party adds a Senator or a couple congressman it forces the establishment to act differently. It is going to require the long haul to really change things.

Rio2010 on May 13, 2014 at 9:03 AM

:(

McConnell, the pathetic self-serving Washigton Establishment PO$, is so narrow-minded that he said the TEA Party – responsible for handing the House over to the GOP – ‘has no place withon the GOP’. He IS the old, white ‘stayed-too-long’ politician. He continues to try to gut members from whithin ‘his’ party, making it smaller…and refuses to rteach out to anyone not already a Republican….and believes this is the way to WIN more seats in both the House and Senate…and sadly he is up in his home state. Instead of ‘cutting out the cancer’, we are voting to keep it ‘alive’.

easyt65 on May 13, 2014 at 10:16 AM

There’s a reason Palin didn’t endorse in this race.

Bevin is this cycle’s Joe Miller.

victor82 on May 13, 2014 at 11:19 AM

There are many, many registered Democrats in Kentucky who are not Democrats. That’s just the way it was. Your parents registered Democrat because their parents registered Democrat.

No way McConnell loses to Lundergan-Grimes, no matter what her pedigree is.

Bevin never made a name. I get 3 robocalls a night and never one from him.

Spiders from Mars on May 13, 2014 at 1:53 PM

So far as I can tell (and I’m not in Kentucky) Bevin’s just not a strong enough candidate.

If you’re gonna swing at the king, you’ve got to kill the king, and he hasn’t even come close.

JEM on May 19, 2014 at 7:20 PM

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