NH poll: Obama tanks, Shaheen and Brown in statistical dead heat

posted at 3:21 pm on May 12, 2014 by Guy Benson

As you digest the results of Dartmouth College’s annual New Hampshire ‘State of the State‘ poll, bear in mind that Barack Obama carried the Granite State by nearly six percentage points in 2012.  My Townhall colleague Dan Doherty flagged the survey of registered voters, which contains all sorts of ugliness for Democrats.  The lowlights, based on a Republican-friendly (24/29/45 – D/R/I sample):

(1) President Obama’s approval rating in the state has slumped (36/54), with his personal favorability similarly underwater at (28/49).  He’s down significantly in both categories compared to last year, a decline largely driven by independents and some disaffected Democrats.

(2) Obamacare is deeply unpopular among New Hampshire voters.  Just 34 percent approve of the law, with 58 percent disapproving.  The breakdown by political party is striking.  Republicans despise the law (5/91), Democrats support it (66/22), while independents drag down its numbers (36/54).  New Hampshire residents who say they’ve personally benefitted from Obamacare are outnumbered by those who’ve been harmed by nearly a three-to-one margin (10/28).  The state has been uniquely impacted by “access shock.”

(3) This bar graph goes out to Sen. Rand Paul.  Here’s how badly Republicans are “offending people” in New Hampshire:

NHID

This lopsided outcome has been replicated nationwide.  Overwhelming majorities of Americans back common-sense voter ID laws, including strong majorities of blacks and Hispanics.  Opposition is loud, and is coordinated by the professionally aggrieved class.

(4) Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is upside-down on both job approval (34/35) and personal favorability (34/37), though her deficits aren’t nearly as dramatic as the president’s.  In a series of hypothetical November match-ups, Shaheen’s solid re-elect number tops out at 39 percent.  Her lead sits within the margin of error against Scott Brown (39/36) with 25 percent undecided; against former Senator Bob Smith, Shaheen leads (38/32) with 19 percent undecided.  Most of the “undecideds,” incidentally, are Republican and independent voters.  Shaheen cast the deciding vote for Obamacare and repeated her party’s false “keep your plan” pledge.  Here’s Brown’s latest web ad touting support from military veterans and highlighting Brown’s own service:

(5) I’ll leave you with this, just for fun.  Note the only match-up that falls outside the MoE:

NH16

Discuss.


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Note the only match-up that falls outside the MoE:

Discuss.

Nothing to dicuss. Bush will lose so handily that the GOP will be a dead party for the next 12 years.

nobar on May 12, 2014 at 3:24 PM

Nominating Jeb Bush would be a disaster. I hope the establishment figures this out sooner than later.

GOPRanknFile on May 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM

The peons need to recognize the genius called Obama…what’s wrong with them???…

PatriotRider on May 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM

*discuss.

nobar on May 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM

Look at that! Rand Paul is doing great against Hillary in NH,. He beat Hillary in Colorado as well. But sadly Rand is losing the Hot air primary therefore he might as well quit now.

No hope for you Paul. (in soup nazi voice)

coolrepublica on May 12, 2014 at 3:28 PM

Shaheen should run on obamacare. People love it, they just don’t realize it.

HumpBot Salvation on May 12, 2014 at 3:28 PM

Jeb Freakn’n Bush?!?! If that’s what the Rs have to offer they’re easy pickings for the D’s oft cited campaign meme of a tired old party with no fresh ideas.

philw1776 on May 12, 2014 at 3:29 PM

Discuss what? The Dems have adopted the old GOP method of “next in line” for 2016, and now we’re supposed to just follow suit?
No thanx!
Far too many good active governors from which to choose, and sumpin’ tells me executive experience might actually matter in 2016, possibly even more than being ‘historical.’

DublOh7 on May 12, 2014 at 3:30 PM

Since this article mentions HiLarry Clintoon, gander at this and laugh: Hillary and Me: The 2008 campaign was a nightmare. Will 2016 be as bad? – Glenn Thrush, author.

ExpressoBold on May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

Shaheen cast the deciding vote for Obamacare and repeated her party’s false “keep your plan” pledge

…so?….how many Dems…have cast “the deciding vote for Obamacare?…just wondering.

KOOLAID2 on May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

…so?….how many Dems…have cast “the deciding vote for Obamacare?…just wondering.

KOOLAID2 on May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

Each and Every one of them.

HumpBot Salvation on May 12, 2014 at 3:34 PM

Wow Hillary is in big trouble with numbers like these this far out. Her negatives will only get worse as the republican field gets whittled down.

Johnnyreb on May 12, 2014 at 3:36 PM

#1 Hillary is not running

#1 Jeb Bush is not running

Nothing to discuss

Redford on May 12, 2014 at 3:38 PM

Look at that! Rand Paul is doing great against Hillary in NH,. He beat Hillary in Colorado as well. But sadly Rand is losing the Hot air primary therefore he might as well quit now.

No hope for you Paul. (in soup nazi voice)

coolrepublica on May 12, 2014 at 3:28 PM

Oh so you’ll vote for him if he’s the nominee? Cool deal.

Kataklysmic on May 12, 2014 at 3:40 PM

philw1776 on May 12, 2014 at 3:29 PM

What does it say about the Ds though, that their front runners are throwbacks from the 90s (Hillary) and the 70s (Biden)?

The one thing that could be said about nominating Rubio or Paul, For just two examples, is they would make either of those Ds look 100 years old.

cat_owner on May 12, 2014 at 3:40 PM

New Hampshire has voted Republican once in Presidential Elections since 1992. Yet a big deal is made of what the people in the granite state think. Why? I am a pessimist by nature and will believe this Republican takeover of the Senate when I see it. From where I sit most of the country is more interested in The View then the midterms. I hope I am proven wrong.

alanstern on May 12, 2014 at 3:42 PM

Who are all these people who have changed their opinion about Obama? Who in the Hell did these imbeciles think he was? For those of us over here on the informed side he’s the same Marxist assclown we’ve known he was since at least 2006.

Kataklysmic on May 12, 2014 at 3:43 PM

Nothing to dicuss.

nobar on May 12, 2014 at 3:24 PM

I have a friend in the Roman legion named Bigus Dicuss…

Occams Stubble on May 12, 2014 at 3:43 PM

OT/ but what happened to Ace? Can’t get in. On topic, Bush won’t run, but Hillary will if she’s still breathing….

sandee on May 12, 2014 at 3:44 PM

I have a friend in the Roman legion named Bigus Dicuss…

Occams Stubble on May 12, 2014 at 3:43 PM

My father was a Roman. His name was Naughtius Maximus.

Doughboy on May 12, 2014 at 3:48 PM

Two things to ponder as sports, politics, and culture collide in the months leading up to the midterms.

When will the media unleash the torrent of questions about gays to conservative and GOP candidates? I think the abortion questions have lost their sting.

How many weeks into the NFL season, and maybe the college season, will fans finally be fed up with all-gay, all-the-time commentary?

BuckeyeSam on May 12, 2014 at 3:50 PM

Let’s talk about NH. Last time they elected a democrat governor, and there are a lot of “Lowell, MA” types who have moved to tax free Nashua, NH and it isn’t a pretty sight. Sometimes they tell us that bus loads of MA democrats show up to vote street by street in elections. That said, Romney lost NH by only 39,500 votes. But on that same day, Gov. Hassan won over Ovid Lamontagne, by 120,000 votes. 60% of women in NH voted for Maggie. But Scott Brown isn’t Ovid. We will see if there is a War on Women campaign, and if NH college students need to vote in NH this time or need to vote in their home state, or are not motivated. In 2012, MA liberal college students attending college in NH had to choose between voting for Obama in NH and voting for Elizabeth Warren in MA. We know it is illegal to cast your ballot in two states, so they do have to choose, register on time…and no Obama this time.

Fleuries on May 12, 2014 at 3:51 PM

Look at that! Rand Paul is doing great against Hillary in NH,. He beat Hillary in Colorado as well. But sadly Rand is losing the Hot air primary therefore he might as well quit now.

No hope for you Paul. (in soup nazi voice)

coldpubichair on May 12, 2014 at 3:28 PM

…it’s ok…you’re just slurping!

KOOLAID2 on May 12, 2014 at 3:54 PM

In 2012, MA liberal college students attending college in NH had to choose between voting for Obama in NH and voting for Elizabeth Warren in MA. We know it is illegal to cast your ballot in two states, so they do have to choose, register on time…and no Obama this time.

Fleuries on May 12, 2014 at 3:51 PM

And if there’s one thing we know about Democrats it’s that election laws are sacrosanct…/

Kataklysmic on May 12, 2014 at 3:54 PM

This bar graph goes out to Sen. Rand Paul. Here’s how badly Republicans are “offending people” in New Hampshire:

Nice.

There Goes the Neighborhood on May 12, 2014 at 3:57 PM

Nominating Jeb Bush would be a disaster. I hope the establishment figures this out sooner than later.

GOPRanknFile on May 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM

I think the GOP establishment has already figured this out,
that is exactly they will nominate him.

burrata on May 12, 2014 at 3:58 PM

Why not just have a Pelosi Style GOP Candidate this time around?

“They’re a conservative, they’re a Republican, but you have to elect them to find out who they are.”

Oxymoron on May 12, 2014 at 4:01 PM

but you have to elect them to find out who they are.”

Oxymoron on May 12, 2014 at 4:01 PM

heh

captnjoe on May 12, 2014 at 4:08 PM

What’s all this “discuss” about Bush? Can’t people read a graph? The spider takes him down too, at least in NH.

rhombus on May 12, 2014 at 4:09 PM

Nominating Jeb Bush would be a disaster. I hope the establishment figures this out sooner than later.

GOPRanknFile on May 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM

They already know. But they also know that between Cankles and Paul (or, heaven forbid, Cruz or Palin) their Chamber of Commerce overlords will take the D’s side any day. Bye-bye, sweet down-the-ticket money.

Rix on May 12, 2014 at 4:20 PM

but..but…..but…the DONORS! they LOVE him. all those donors. those 2 guys the LSM asked.

t8stlikchkn on May 12, 2014 at 4:21 PM

Nominating Jeb Bush would be a disaster. I hope the establishment figures this out sooner than later.

GOPRanknFile on May 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM

What they seem to have a problem figuring out is that conservatives won’t vote for a RINO. They may be able to nominate a RINO, but they’ll never will a national general election with one. You would think that the last two elections may have given them a clue.

cajunpatriot on May 12, 2014 at 4:26 PM

Since this article mentions HiLarry Clintoon, gander at this and laugh: Hillary and Me: The 2008 campaign was a nightmare. Will 2016 be as bad? – Glenn Thrush, author.

ExpressoBold on May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

That was delicious! Thank you.

Missy on May 12, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Insurers, healthcare providers, and polling all disagree with this lone partisan “analysis”, for the record.

everdiso on May 12, 2014 at 2:29 PM

Del Dolemonte on May 12, 2014 at 4:34 PM

Shaheen and Brown in statistical dead heat

Like it makes a difference?

bofh on May 12, 2014 at 4:42 PM

Since this article mentions HiLarry Clintoon, gander at this and laugh: Hillary and Me: The 2008 campaign was a nightmare. Will 2016 be as bad? – Glenn Thrush, author.

ExpressoBold on May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

That is funny stuff, and from Politiho.

slickwillie2001 on May 12, 2014 at 4:47 PM

This bar graph goes out to Sen. Rand Paul. Here’s how badly Republicans are “offending people” in New Hampshire:

Snow ain’t the only thing that’s white in NH…

JohnGalt23 on May 12, 2014 at 4:48 PM

Let’s talk about NH. Last time they elected a democrat governor, and there are a lot of “Lowell, MA” types who have moved to tax free Nashua, NH and it isn’t a pretty sight.

Fleuries on May 12, 2014 at 3:51 PM

That may be a myth; a 2006 study by the University of New Hampshire found that most of the migrants to NH from MA were in fact Republicans and remained that way. The Democrats who immigrated to NH came from elsewhere.

As for our Governor, she got elected in 2012 because (1) the Democrats had a far superior GOTV machine, (2)her “opponent” had the appeal of a piece of lawn furniture, and (3) had a stupid first name (Ovide). Sarc for the last one of course!

It could also be argued that Maggie got elected Governor because many Low-IQ Democrats thought she was “ethnic” because of her married last name (Hassan) when in reality she’s a carpetbagger from MA whose maiden name was…Wood.

Del Dolemonte on May 12, 2014 at 4:50 PM

The Castro brothers are missing an idiot.

Schadenfreude on May 12, 2014 at 4:50 PM

Go OR!!!

Schadenfreude on May 12, 2014 at 4:54 PM

The Democrat Party is now completely indistinguishable from a national suicide pact.

JeremiahJohnson on May 12, 2014 at 4:57 PM

Brown will be able to beat that nube. Liarwatha rode on Lying POTUS’ coattails.

ezspirit on May 12, 2014 at 4:58 PM

Go Scott!

Ted the Average on May 12, 2014 at 5:22 PM

That may be a myth; a 2006 study by the University of New Hampshire found that most of the migrants to NH from MA were in fact Republicans and remained that way. The Democrats who immigrated to NH came from elsewhere. Del Dolemonte on May 12, 2014 at 4:50 PM

The Census of the United States of America says that 12% of Nashua residents are “foreign born.” The Census doesn’t ask them if they vote anyway. Many get “services” for their American born children, and subsidized housing. Like in Lowell before them. NH is better because you don’t have to do a state tax form, so you can be relatively invisible, steal/shoplift/sell drugs in MA by day and be home by nightfall. Convenient to Marlboro, and Worcester and Framingham, Nashua is better than Lowell if you “can’t” be in MA.

Fleuries on May 12, 2014 at 7:47 PM

…so?….how many Dems…have cast “the deciding vote for Obamacare?…just wondering.

KOOLAID2 on May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

Each and Every one of them.

HumpBot Salvation on May 12, 2014 at 3:34 PM

Exactly. And never let the voters forget this.

talkingpoints on May 12, 2014 at 10:32 PM

Allahpundit usually puts up the poll posts here.

They are easy topics, don’t require much thinking, and no matter what your “analysis,” they are usually good fodder for comments. Real click-bait stuff.

AP says this is good enough to fool the cabbage heads at Salem, who think he is busy working, giving him more time to pursue his sideline of selling moonshine whiskey out the back.

So I guess what I’m saying is, “Are you taking over the liquor business, too? And will the password still be ‘brown-eyed women’ and the answer ‘red grenadine,’ or will we have to learn new ones?”

Adjoran on May 13, 2014 at 12:36 AM