Uh oh: House committee claims only two-thirds of federal ObamaCare enrollees paid first premium by April 15

posted at 7:01 pm on April 30, 2014 by Allahpundit

And you know what that means: No money, no coverage, which means the widely touted figure of eight million enrollments that Barack “Mission Accomplished” Obama’s been pushing lately is flatly bogus. Anyone who hasn’t paid by the end of the grace period offered by their insurer — and some of those grace periods were undoubtedly extended beyond April 15th, the cut-off date for this analysis — will be tossed from the rolls.

The figure that’s been cited for months on payment rates is 80 percent. The Energy and Commerce Committee claims it’s actually significantly lower, at least when it comes to enrollees on the federal exchange, i.e. Healthcare.gov. As you read, focus on the following question. Why couldn’t HHS have calculated this?

Data provided to the committee by every insurance provider in the health care law’s Federally Facilitated Marketplace (FFM) shows that, as of April 15, 2014, only 67 percent of individuals and families that had selected a health plan in the federally facilitated marketplace had paid their first month’s premium and therefore completed the enrollment process. Nationwide, only 25 percent of paid enrollees are ages 18 to 34

On April 17, 2014, President Obama declared the success of his law, claiming that 8 million Americans had signed up for health insurance, but data from the insurance providers reveals that the president’s figure is largely misleading. As of April 15, 2014, insurers informed the committee that only 2.45 million had paid their first month’s premium for coverage obtained through the federally facilitated marketplace. While the administration has relied on questionable nationwide figures to boast the law’s success, the state-by-state breakdown compiled by the committee underscores the serious problems facing some states…

“In a sad reversal away from its vows of transparency, the Obama administration, from inside the Oval Office on down, has gone to extraordinary lengths to keep basic details of the health law from the public. Tired of receiving incomplete pictures of enrollment in the health care law, we went right to the source and found that the administration’s recent declarations of success may be unfounded,” commented full committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI). “We need a complete picture of how this law is working. We will continue to strive for transparency and hold the administration accountable for this law’s shortcomings and broken promises.”

One big caveat here: Because they’re only looking at states that use the federal exchange, they’re missing the numbers from states that run their own exchanges — which include hugely populous behemoths like California and New York. If those states are seeing higher rates of payment, for whatever reason, then the payment rate nationally is actually higher than this. We’ll need to wait and see. If the payment rate in those states isn’t higher then the number of true, paid enrollments nationally is something on the order of 5.36 million, more than two and a half million less than the number Obama’s been waving around. As for the age breakdown among those who paid:

Under 18: six percent;
Ages 18 to 25: 10 percent;
26 to 34: 15 percent;
35 to 44: 16 percent;
45 to 54: 23 percent;
55 to 64: 29 percent;
65 and older: 1 percent.

That’s not disastrous for the White House, I think. They’ve got 31 percent overall who are paid up aged 34 or younger; I remember reading somewhere that they could probably function reasonably well as long as there are no fewer than 25 percent of “young invincibles” in the risk pool. It’s probably also true that young adults are overrepresented among the one-third of sign-ups who haven’t paid yet. Logically, older people who need insurance more desperately than younger people do will be scrupulous about making their payments on time to guarantee that the coverage is in effect. If the White House can do something to give young deadbeats more time (and incentive) to make their payments, they can probably tilt the risk pool a bit younger than it is right now. Which means those grace periods for payment that insurers have extended are likely to be extended quite a bit longer.

Exit question: How many of 2.45 million paid enrollees on the federal exchange were previously uninsured?

Update: Pretty much, yeah.


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But these Obamacare posts are about whistling past the graveyard, by next Novemeber Democrats will be openly running on the ACA. Mark my words.
libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:14 AM

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:03 PM

WH won’t release enrollment data, tells GOP to ask insurers. GOP asks insurers, WH disputes data. GOP asks WH for data, WH won’t release.

Goebels wets the entire cemetery.

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:04 PM

Goebbels, but you knew.

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:05 PM

Not a good day for the leftist thugs on HA.

Payback is such fun. Just two days ago they were ecstatic.

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:06 PM

But it’s free, right?

Lance Corvette on April 30, 2014 at 7:06 PM

Why is this in red? It’s not even a surprise and no one is going to care.

Cindy Munford on April 30, 2014 at 7:07 PM

Why pay when it is free?

Electrongod on April 30, 2014 at 7:07 PM

Numbers am racist.

Resist We Much!!

FORWARD!!!!

BigWyo on April 30, 2014 at 7:08 PM

Someone is having a bad day.

esr1951 on April 30, 2014 at 7:09 PM

Cool parody

h/t Key West Reader

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:10 PM

“As of April 15, 2014, insurers informed the committee that only 2.45 million had paid their first month’s premium for coverage obtained through the federally facilitated marketplace”

Who is mathematically challanged here. How is 2.45 million 67 percent of 8 million?

ChildOfGod on April 30, 2014 at 7:11 PM

Now is a great time to be talking about Comprehensive Immigration Reform!!!!!

Cicero43 on April 30, 2014 at 7:11 PM

House committee claims only two-thirds of federal ObamaCare enrollees paid first premium by April 15

Sooooo, the ones that didn’t pay gonna get bonuses like the IRS employees who didn’t pay their taxes? Seems only fair.

WH won’t release enrollment data, tells GOP to ask insurers. GOP asks insurers, WH disputes data. GOP asks WH for data, WH won’t release.

At this point, what difference does it make.

hawkeye54 on April 30, 2014 at 7:12 PM

I simply cannot believe this to be true.

Bmore on April 30, 2014 at 7:12 PM

WH won’t release enrollment data, tells GOP to ask insurers. GOP asks insurers, WH disputes data. GOP asks WH for data, WH won’t release.

Standard liberal playbook there. Just classic. Bunch of lying idiots.

xNavigator on April 30, 2014 at 7:13 PM

The proletariat should let the Anointed Elite worry about the details of the Ocare “reforms.” You may return to your embroidery, Citizen.

Cicero43 on April 30, 2014 at 7:13 PM

I’m surprised it’s that high.

bw222 on April 30, 2014 at 7:14 PM

They pretend to provide coverage,
We pretend to pay them.

Murphy9 on April 30, 2014 at 7:14 PM

Meh, they’ll ‘adjust’ those numbers in no time :)…by Nov the Dem will declare victory of socialism in the US, all backed up by solid numbers :).

jimver on April 30, 2014 at 7:15 PM

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:03 PM

Your post and timing are impeccable as always.

Carry on!

Vero Beach Florida on April 30, 2014 at 7:15 PM

If these figures are real (and the track record suggests that they’re probably cooked in some way again) then I’m actually surprised by how many are paid up.

ElectricPhase on April 30, 2014 at 7:16 PM

And the vast majority of those who paid were previously insured but lost their insurance due to Obamacare and then forced to buy their insurance through Obamacare website and state exchange website and hence counted as “Obamcare enrolees”… The only important question was, is, and will always be how many “previously uninsured” bought Obamacare insurance and of course not counting the Medicaid expansion beneficiaries which is 100% funded by the taxpayers… No more than 30% of those who bought Obamacare insurance were previously uninsured and hence the utter failure of Obamacare…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:16 PM

that Barack “Mission Accomplished” Obama’s been pushing lately is flatly bogus.

Just like everything else King Obama pushes.

GarandFan on April 30, 2014 at 7:16 PM

” if the WH can give the young deadbeats more time ( incentive)” what next? The WH is going to send the money to pay their premium? Of course they are! Does a bear sh* t in the woods?

Bakokitty on April 30, 2014 at 7:16 PM

WH won’t release enrollment data, tells GOP to ask insurers. GOP asks insurers, WH disputes data. GOP asks WH for data, WH won’t release.

Most transparently corrupt and incompetent administration ever.

rbj on April 30, 2014 at 7:17 PM

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:10 PM

Please. Never do that again without warning. ; )

Bmore on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

If these figures are real (and the track record suggests that they’re probably cooked in some way again) then I’m actually surprised by how many are paid up.

ElectricPhase on April 30, 2014 at 7:16 PM

Why are you surprised? The vast majority of those who paid up were previously insured before Obamacare i.e. they used to pay for their insurance but lost their insurance due to Obamacare and then forced to buy a crappy Obama insurance from Federal and States exchange websites…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

If the payment rate in those states isn’t higher then the number of true, paid enrollments nationally is something on the order of 5.36 million, more than two and a half million less than the number Obama’s been waving around.

There have been plenty of well-documented reports that over 6 million people LOST health insurance because of Obamacare, and now only 5.36 million have obtained health insurance through Obamacare.

So Obamacare was passed to provide health insurance to 31 million or 47 million uninsured Americans (depending on whose figures we believe from 2009), and it results in a net LOSS of health insurance by 640,000 people, and premium and deductible increases for many more.

And how much did this cost the rest of us? Much ado about nothing, or less than nothing.

Steve Z on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

Another caveat: young doesn’t necessarily mean healthy.

BKeyser on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

“In a sad reversal away from its vows of transparency, the Obama administration, from inside the Oval Office on down, has gone to extraordinary lengths to keep basic details of the health law from the public.

The most transparent Administration ever! Thanks Obama!

And 53% of the voting public believed him in 2008 and almost as many in 2012. There is a sucker born every minute.

Johnnyreb on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

2.45 million out of 8 million? That would be 30% or 1/3 not 67% or 2/3. Even a congressional committee should be able to do that math.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

2.45 million out of 8 million? That would be 30% or 1/3 not 67% or 2/3. Even a congressional committee should be able to do that math.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

They only looked at those who enrolled in the Federal exchange and not states exchanges. Those who enrolled in Federal exchange are around 3.65 millions…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:22 PM

The whole thing is a unfunctional debacle…even if you have these supposed numbers no one understands thanks to Obama on the fly changing the thing 38 times!

sorrowen on April 30, 2014 at 7:22 PM

2.45 million out of 8 million? That would be 30% or 1/3 not 67% or 2/3. Even a congressional committee should be able to do that math.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

We were told by the left that there were 40+ million uninsured….

What a scam this whole ObamaScare is….

Electrongod on April 30, 2014 at 7:23 PM

And 53% of the voting public believed him in 2008 and almost as many in 2012. There is a sucker born every minute.

Johnnyreb on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

90% of those 53% will vote for the DEVIL if he runs as a democrat and they will never ever vote Republican even if an angel from heaven runs as a Republican…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:24 PM

“But it’s wildly popular so we should just accept it!” – GOP MEME

Augustinian on April 30, 2014 at 7:24 PM

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:03 PM

Shove that quote in that loser’s face every time he posts on any topic. Badger him until he answers whether Dems will be running on Ogabecare.

8 weight on April 30, 2014 at 7:24 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

The state exchanges have actually failed worse so I don’t see how the numbers could be better on those.

sorrowen on April 30, 2014 at 7:27 PM

I can’t wait for my DMV agent to examine my butthole.

Key West Reader on April 30, 2014 at 7:27 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

I am Lois Lerner’s daughter. And I refuse to pay taxex.

Now, kiss my butt.

Key West Reader on April 30, 2014 at 7:28 PM

I remember reading somewhere that they could probably function reasonably well as long as there are no fewer than 25 percent of “young invincibles” in the risk pool.

You are assuming that these “young invincibles” are paying enough money to cover for the money spent on the older and sicker people? I guarantee you that they chose the cheapest plan and on the top of that they got a lot of taxpayers subsidies i.e. taxpayers are screwed beyond belief…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:29 PM

“No money, no coverage…”

I see an Executive Order being pulled out of Obama’s a%s by morning…

Seven Percent Solution on April 30, 2014 at 7:29 PM

The idea of the state exchanges having better enrollment despite being total wrecks is laughable.

sorrowen on April 30, 2014 at 7:29 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

97% of the 47% won’t pay for your agenda.

Key West Reader on April 30, 2014 at 7:30 PM

But these Obamacare posts are about whistling past the graveyard, by next Novemeber Democrats will be openly running on the ACA. Mark my words.
libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:14 AM

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:03 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

Someone’s not paying attention. This is your mind on drugs.

Chuck Ef on April 30, 2014 at 7:30 PM

I am sitting here trying to do the math and I am coming up with some stupidly bizarre weird numbers.

It seems that the total number of people who actually paid for Obamacare insurance was almost exactly that same number of people who got kicked off their old insurance because it did not comply with the Obamacare minimum insurance requirement mandates.

What are the odds of that happening? Someone alert the media ok?

Johnnyreb on April 30, 2014 at 7:33 PM

Have they double-counted the # enrolled and paid in the under 18 and 18-25 years old groups who are already on their parent’s policies now and will be potentially for several more years?

gracie on April 30, 2014 at 7:34 PM

Bmore on April 30, 2014 at 7:18 PM

She has another video where she rethinks her vote while listening to Obama make speech about people getting a job. She is very funny,

Cindy Munford on April 30, 2014 at 7:34 PM

I’m surprised it’s that high.

bw222 on April 30, 2014 at 7:14 PM

…it’s probably half of that!…hey!…I still believe there’s only 11 million ‘illegals’ in this country!

KOOLAID2 on April 30, 2014 at 7:35 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

66% of the populace works in the Obama Admin?

Who knew?

Augustinian on April 30, 2014 at 7:36 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

Do you want percentage or actual numbers or you liberal arts stupid mind will not know the difference of simple math? Around 150 million Americans filed for tax return in 2012 and 15 millions of them asked for extension, so 10% asked for extension… On the other hand 33% of Obamacare enrolees did not pay their insurance and that is after the extension of the deadline…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:36 PM

And you know what that means: No money, no coverage, which means the widely touted figure of eight million enrollments that Barack “Mission Accomplished” Obama’s been pushing lately is flatly bogus.

Or at least they started losing their 90-day “no-pay” coverage this month.

By “Independence” Day, the freeloaders should all be off, and we’ll be asking who paid their third month’s premiums.

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 7:37 PM

And you know what that means: No money, no coverage, which means the widely touted figure of eight million enrollments that Barack “Mission Accomplished” Obama’s been pushing lately is flatly bogus. Anyone who hasn’t paid by the end of the grace period offered by their insurer — and some of those grace periods were undoubtedly extended beyond April 15th, the cut-off date for this analysis — will be tossed from the rolls.

Nah. What it means is that Nanzi Pelosi, Harry Reid, and the democrats in general will demand more money to help subsidize these people who can’t even afford Obamacare they’re so poor!

SouthernGent on April 30, 2014 at 7:37 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeorgan on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

… This!… ^… is your brain…on syphilis!

KOOLAID2 on April 30, 2014 at 7:38 PM

Reality it is failing pretty epically and openly.

sorrowen on April 30, 2014 at 7:39 PM

Exit question: How many of 2.45 million paid enrollees on the federal exchange were previously uninsured?

Magic Egg Ball says…somewhere under 50,000.

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 7:41 PM

I thought there were thirty million uninsured? before Obamacare.

Joseph OHenry on April 30, 2014 at 7:42 PM

I can’t believe Obama lied about this.

forest on April 30, 2014 at 7:42 PM

Or at least they started losing their 90-day “no-pay” coverage this month.

By “Independence” Day, the freeloaders should all be off, and we’ll be asking who paid their third month’s premiums.

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 7:37 PM

And they will be locked out from being able to get any Health Insurance from the exchanges until 1 October. They will have to go to the cash market if they want anything and pay upfront. That is gonna leave a mark on some unsuspecting people when they have to pay upfront with next years increased premiums because the Insurance companies had to cover about 3 Million people for three months worth of Health Care bills without them paying a dime in premiums. LOL.

Johnnyreb on April 30, 2014 at 7:44 PM

Oh don’t worry. The Democrats will find some way of running on Obamacare anyway. “2.45 million! A whopping 2.45 million! And more people every day!”

They’re masters at the art of campaigning, you gotta give them that. I loathe just about everything they stand for but their salesmanship is fantastic.

John Paul Jones on April 30, 2014 at 7:44 PM

thought there were thirty million uninsured? before Obamacare.

Joseph OHenry on April 30, 2014 at 7:42 PM

The rest of them are internet illiterate…

Thanks to public education…..

Electrongod on April 30, 2014 at 7:45 PM

Something tells me that the 10% of the “young invincibles” who signed up are least invincible of that age group.

LASue on April 30, 2014 at 7:46 PM

WH won’t release enrollment data, tells GOP to ask insurers. GOP asks insurers, WH disputes data. GOP asks WH for data, WH won’t release.

I don’t know what the truth is but you are lying !

burrata on April 30, 2014 at 7:46 PM

Most. Transparent. Administration. Ever.

22044 on April 30, 2014 at 7:51 PM

The big number is this one.
•Ages 18 to 25: 10 percent;
That is the fresh meat that this clusterfark needs. I predict that this number will go DOWN as the year progresses. Youth that age will think:
Pay stupid health insurance bill or pay rent.
Pay stupid health insurance bill or pay phone bill, electrical.
Pay stupid health insurance bill or save for new ride.
Pay stupid health insurance bill or buy groceries, weed, concert tickets.
Heck. I signed up for the f*#$ing thing by their stupid f*@ing deadline, what do they expect??

kurtzz3 on April 30, 2014 at 7:51 PM

The Tweet at the end says it all.

bflat879 on April 30, 2014 at 7:54 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

You went to Harvard, right?

TinFin on April 30, 2014 at 7:54 PM

kurtzz3 on April 30, 2014 at 7:51 PM

My guess is 80% of the under 27 crowd is on their parents’ insurance.

astonerii on April 30, 2014 at 7:54 PM

A collective “meh”, is resounding throughout America.

KMC1 on April 30, 2014 at 7:55 PM

Anyone who hasn’t paid by the end of the grace period offered by their insurer — and some of those grace periods were undoubtedly extended beyond April 15th, the cut-off date for this analysis — will be tossed from the rolls.

And given the Obama Administrations proclivity to change the law on the fly you think this will happen because…

Marcus Traianus on April 30, 2014 at 7:55 PM

The way I look at this is that all the numbers will end up getting translated into the next years fee notices. Until then it is just an exercise in frustration to keep trying to get to the bottom line.
My expectation is that the pool will have way too many unhealthy people for the present fee structure. This will be true no matter how many people signup and pay. Does anyone know what happens with subsidies if fees go up maybe 10%?

MnCoolRoad on April 30, 2014 at 7:58 PM

But he said he was insuring all the uninsured and created 20 new taxes to do it and I’m saving my 2500 dollars by not paying my first 8 months of premiums!

tim c on April 30, 2014 at 8:01 PM

Who will promise to rescue the Obamacare hostages?

Certainly not Paul.

bildung on April 30, 2014 at 8:02 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?

libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

How many of those Americans had to pay their taxes to get that extension.

RickB on April 30, 2014 at 8:05 PM

The big number is this one.
•Ages 18 to 25: 10 percent;
That is the fresh meat that this clusterfark needs. I predict that this number will go DOWN as the year progresses. Youth that age will think:
Pay stupid health insurance bill or pay rent.
Pay stupid health insurance bill or pay phone bill, electrical.
Pay stupid health insurance bill or save for new ride.
Pay stupid health insurance bill or buy groceries, weed, concert tickets.
Heck. I signed up for the f*#$ing thing by their stupid f*@ing deadline, what do they expect??

kurtzz3 on April 30, 2014 at 7:51 PM

+100

Take a look at the auto insurance market and ponder the young and the marginally employed group that tends to pay their auto insurance for a month or 2 or 3, then drop it, then get it back again later, quit paying, ad infinitum.

Only this will be worse, since they (well-educated as they no doubt are about ACA)won’t realize they can’t just pick up the insurance again when they get some overtime or their tax refund.

Not that paying their premiums would provide any real benefit to them anyway, since they’ll be paying for that Oh Mammy! deductible on that cheapo bronze policy all year.

Dolce Far Niente on April 30, 2014 at 8:05 PM

On April 17, 2014, President Obama declared the success of his law, claiming that 8 million Americans had signed up for health insurance,

Yes … we all know he was lying. The indonesian, Dog-Eating Retard ALWAYS lies … about everything. And he always tells the most ridiculous, inane, intellectually offensive lies that not even a 5 year old would believe.

But, I don’t even care about that. I don’t care how many people actually did sign up through the un-Constitutional, illegal, un-American national socialized health insurance exchange. BarkyCare is un-Constitutional, illegal and un-American. Period. No matter if 2,873,998,321.9987 people signed up and paid for it. It is stupid. It will kill R+D and most of the health care industry. It is just plain un-American and goes against everything America (R.I.P.) was built to represent. It is third-world BS that only the biggest morons and America-haters could accept in any way, shape or form (and that includes the Vichy Republicans who are damn happy with BarkyCare and want to start putting their names on trimmings around its tattered, destructive edges.

Fvck Barky and his America-killing third-world enterprise and fvck Benedict Roberts and all the dirtbags who didn’t try to stop this illegal and offensive monstrosity. The death of America has now been paid as “reparations” … in addition to the trillions wasted on un-Constitutional feral government welfare and regulations on businesses. Yay!!

If every man, woman, child and dog dinner entree singed and paid for health insurance through healthcare.gov it wouldn’t make one bit of difference. barkyCare is what it is – un-Constitutional, un-American, stupid, moronic, and destructive. It must go and everyone who ever supported it in any way must go, too. Send them all to jakarta, since that seems more like the sort of nation they are trying to build on America’s corpseman.

Taken down by a friggin retard without one iota of talent or skill in ANYTHING. This will stand out as one of the most embarassing and shameful moments in all of human history. UN-REAL.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on April 30, 2014 at 8:06 PM

At some point they’ll break out the hammer to force people to sign up.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:09 PM

Seems about right. 66%? How many Americans just asked for tax extensions?
 
libfreeordie on April 30, 2014 at 7:26 PM

 
110%.

rogerb on April 30, 2014 at 8:17 PM

It’s in the vault, right next to Obama’s college transcripts.

ctmom on April 30, 2014 at 8:19 PM

The exit question doesn’t match the 5.36 million number given up post.

2.45 million DIDN’T pay.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:19 PM

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:10 PM

Very funny!

lineholder on April 30, 2014 at 8:21 PM

At some point they’ll break out the hammer to force people to sign up.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:09 PM

Can’t do that. Robert’s ruling specifically said that if it becomes punitive it’s a mandate and not a tax. And that a mandate is unconstitutional.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:21 PM

110%.

rogerb on April 30, 2014 at 8:17 PM

Have you filed for an extension?

‘Cause you still have to pay by the deadline…April 15th…

Just sayin’

Electrongod on April 30, 2014 at 8:25 PM

Goebels wets the entire cemetery.

Schadenfreude on April 30, 2014 at 7:04 PM

LOL!

aquaviva on April 30, 2014 at 8:26 PM

The exit question doesn’t match the 5.36 million number given up post.

2.45 million DIDN’T pay.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:19 PM

The committee’s got their numbers screwed up or their math is wrong.

They say that 2.45 million out of 8 million paid. Which would be a 30% success rate. But is that’s 2.45 on the federal exchanges? And additional on the state run ones? To bring it to 67%? That’s not what they say. And their state – by – state breakdown certainly shows about a 30% success rate.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:27 PM

The big number is this one.
•Ages 18 to 25: 10 percent;

Isn’t Mom and Dad paying for their plan because they are considered dependents?

Vince on April 30, 2014 at 8:36 PM

I re-read it and you’re right. It does say 2.45 million paid.

My brain assumed that was the 1/3rd that didn’t. Or is it written wrong?

It’s a jacked up mess.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:42 PM

The end result of this exercise likely will be that the pool will be over represented by unhealthy people. Next years premium notices will go out with the bad news and can not be covered up.
Does anyone know what will happen with the subsidies if insurance premiums go up 10 to 20%? If the subsidies start falling behind, more and more people will not be able to afford the premiums.

MnCoolRoad on April 30, 2014 at 8:44 PM

The exit question doesn’t match the 5.36 million number given up post.

2.45 million DIDN’T pay.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:19 PM

The committee’s got their numbers screwed up or their math is wrong.

They say that 2.45 million out of 8 million paid. Which would be a 30% success rate. But is that’s 2.45 on the federal exchanges? And additional on the state run ones? To bring it to 67%? That’s not what they say. And their state – by – state breakdown certainly shows about a 30% success rate.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:27 PM

I’ve been running numbers all day, so let me see if I can clear things up.

- 2.45 million is the number of those signed up on the federal PlaceboCare exchange that paid.
- 5.36 million is AP’s back-of-the-calculator estimate of the number of people on all the PlaceboCare exchanges that paid, both federal and state.
- 8 million is the Obama adminstration claim of the number of people on all the PlaceboCare exchanges, both federal and state.

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 8:47 PM

I re-read it and you’re right. It does say 2.45 million paid.

My brain assumed that was the 1/3rd that didn’t. Or is it written wrong?

It’s a jacked up mess.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:42 PM

They say 1/3 didn’t (67% did).

But then the numbers they give say only 1/3 did. If you go to the press statemnnt the state-by-state says only 1/3 did (or somewhere around that).

Jacked up mess is about right. Congressional committees and math do not mix. But we knew that.

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:48 PM

I re-read it and you’re right. It does say 2.45 million paid.

My brain assumed that was the 1/3rd that didn’t. Or is it written wrong?

It’s a jacked up mess.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:42 PM

You got it essentially right. What was never stated above, until mnjg mentioned it, was the number of enrollees on the federal exchange…

They only looked at those who enrolled in the Federal exchange and not states exchanges. Those who enrolled in Federal exchange are around 3.65 millions…

mnjg on April 30, 2014 at 7:22 PM

That would leave roughly 1.2 million on the federal exchange who signed up but never paid.

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 8:50 PM

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 8:47 PM

Right but look at their state-by-state breakdowns for the federal run excghanges.

The first 2 categories are Paid and not Paid. Then an age group breakdown. None of the age groups comes above 31%.

Alaska 66% 34% 8% 7% 19% 16% 21% 29% 0%
Alabama 78% 22% 3% 10% 17% 17% 22% 31% 0%

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:53 PM

So how can the total be 67%? What am I missing?

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:55 PM

Thanks for clearing that up. Had me way confused.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 8:55 PM

Right but look at their state-by-state breakdowns for the federal run excghanges.

The first 2 categories are Paid and not Paid. Then an age group breakdown. None of the age groups comes above 31%.

Alaska 66% 34% 8% 7% 19% 16% 21% 29% 0%
Alabama 78% 22% 3% 10% 17% 17% 22% 31% 0%

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 8:53 PM

The age percentage is the number of that age group who paid divided by the total number who paid, not divided by the total number who selected a plan.

Steve Eggleston on April 30, 2014 at 8:58 PM

Now I’m confused again.

At least some State numbers are pretty easy to calculate, like Oregon.

wolly4321 on April 30, 2014 at 9:00 PM

They’ve got 31 percent overall who are paid up aged 34 or younger;

Nope, under 18 doesn’t count, so that makes it 25% that are age 18-34.

They needed 40% age 18-34. Burn.

sentinelrules on April 30, 2014 at 9:01 PM

OK, Thanks!

kcewa on April 30, 2014 at 9:03 PM

Brian Faughnan ‏@BrianFaughnan 2h

WH estimated 18-34 yr olds would be about 38% of all enrollment. Insurer data says it’s only 25%. That’ll be more costly.

sentinelrules on April 30, 2014 at 9:03 PM

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