Polls: Udall vs. Gardner in a dead heat in Colorado

posted at 1:01 pm on April 24, 2014 by Erika Johnsen

As I mentioned yesterday, the cash and the ads from outside groups have already been flying back and forth in Colorado, but Team Udall released its own official TV spot this week that was just about everything you’d expect from an anxious swing-state Democrat desperate to talk about anything but ObamaCare: Republicans and particularly Cory Gardner don’t respect women and actually want to ban birth control, blah blah blah. According to a poll out this morning from Quinnipiac, Udall evidently knows his audience, because the gender gap is one of the few things he has really going for him:

The economy and healthcare, listed by Colorado voters as top issues in this year’s U.S. Senate race, could be the mountains which Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall must climb, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Udall gets 45 percent to 44 percent for U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, his Republican challenger, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

The gender gap is wide as Udall leads 52 – 35 percent among women while Gardner leads 53 – 38 percent among men. Udall leads among Democrats 90 – 3 percent while Gardner takes Republicans 88 – 7 percent and gets 43 percent of independent voters to Udall’s 41 percent.

In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 16 percent of voters list the economy or jobs as the most important issue in deciding their U.S. Senate vote, and 14 percent list healthcare. No other issue comes close.

Voters who list the economy back Gardner over Udall 53 – 40 percent and voters who cite health care back the Republican 57 – 36 percent.

That 50 percent of Colorado voters say they don’t yet know enough about Gardner to form an opinion about him (particularly the youths aged 18-29, 72 percent of which feel they don’t know enough) is another major opportunity for Team Udall — ergo, expect the “extremist” attacks and the war-on-women-mongering to continue, the better to define Gardner as an undesirable hyper-partisan lowlifeas early as possible — but that’s just about where Udall’s definitive advantages end. Colorado voters oppose ObamaCare by 59/37 percent, with a 62/34 split among independent voters; they disapprove of President Obama’s job performance by a 21-point margin at 59/38; they do not think Udall deserves to be reelected by 46/40; and voter confidence seems to be trending toward Gardner when it comes to the top two issues of the race. To top all of that off, some polling conducted last week from the Chamber of Commerce corroborates a lot of Quinnipiac’s findings:

The internal survey, obtained exclusively by POLITICO, has Republican Rep. Cory Gardner up by 2 points among likely voters, 44 percent to 42 percent, over Democratic Sen. Mark Udall. Libertarian Party candidate Gaylon Kent pulls 7 percent. This is within the 4-point margin of error.

Udall is viewed favorably by 38 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 33 percent. A slight majority, 51 percent, said it is time to give a new person a chance, compared with 35 percent who said they would automatically vote to reelect him. …

Pollster Tony Fabrizio and David Lee highlighted a few crosstabs that should embolden Republicans in a memo for Chamber officials. Gardner’s voters are most passionate: he’s up 8 points among those who have an opinion of both candidates, he leads by 5 points among those who say they will “definitely” vote and he’s up 20 points among those who say that, on a 1-to-10 scale, they have a 10 level of interest.

And here’s another potential crack that Team Gardner might want to open up: Quinnipiac also released some more state-legislature-centric numbers from Colorado on Wednesday, and voters increasingly oppose Colorado’s latest package of gun control laws (the ones that inspired a successful recall election of two state senators) by 56/39 percent, up from 52/43 percent in February. Udall sits rather to the left of some of his fellow vulnerable Democrats on the gun-control issue. Ahem.


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Eh, the entire state is so stoned they’ll be lucky if they can find the voting booth without instead waking up 2 days later in the middle of a freeway minus their clothing.

Bishop on April 24, 2014 at 1:04 PM

Erika,
If we MUST be subjected to April polls for a November election, would you provide the R/D/I splits in the mix, please?

Thank you.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2014 at 1:05 PM

Seconded on R/D/I split information, so that I may run the numbers through my Dean Chambers unskewing algorithm and get an accurate assessment of this race

Eva D. Struktion on April 24, 2014 at 1:09 PM

Colorado ’14: “Guns ‘N Doses”.

Rix on April 24, 2014 at 1:10 PM

…waking up 2 days later in the middle of a freeway minus their clothing.

Bishop on April 24, 2014 at 1:04 PM

That’s happened to you, too? Weird.

bigmacdaddy on April 24, 2014 at 1:11 PM

When the Obama-democrat Care insurance starts kicking in with those high deductibles and long waits for a doctor 50 miles away things will take a sharp turn for the worse for all democrats. However, the roaring economy will give them a boost.

jukin3 on April 24, 2014 at 1:13 PM

Udall evidently knows his audience, because the gender gap is one of the few things he has really going for him

I am so sick of these elections swinging on the feelings of birth-canal vigilantes. Rabid partisan stupid women that think all of society revolves around their private parts.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2014 at 1:14 PM

Eh, the entire state is so stoned they’ll be lucky if they can find the voting booth without instead waking up 2 days later in the middle of a freeway minus their clothing.

Bishop on April 24, 2014 at 1:04 PM

Would mostly affect Udall supporters? A stoned out LIV bloc could work wonders. All that has to be done is helpfully provide them with prefilled mail in ballots for them to sign with only a little effort, and then its back to lighting up and digging into some more Doritos and HoHos.

hawkeye54 on April 24, 2014 at 1:15 PM

My favorite sections are the ones where they ask clinton v. Bush, Christie, Paul, and Hyuckabee.

Paul is the only one beating Clinton now. The rest are tied or behind her.

JEB 2016!’s unfavorable is 40% right now without the smear campaign from the democrats. That sucker is going down just on Bush name identity alone.

Good.

NWConservative on April 24, 2014 at 1:15 PM

don’t respect women and actually want to ban birth control

That only works with some because of the socons that still want the government to be in charge of pregnancy, like that is ever going to happen.

The only thing that attitude does, is elect Democrats.

The gender gap is wide as Udall leads 52 – 35 percent among women

duh

Moesart on April 24, 2014 at 1:16 PM

…waking up 2 days later in the middle of a freeway minus their clothing.

Bishop on April 24, 2014 at 1:04 PM

That’s happened to you, too? Weird.

bigmacdaddy on April 24, 2014 at 1:11 PM

Funny, happened to my brother in law in his free wheeling youth….and all he ever consumed was beer. A LOT of beer.

hawkeye54 on April 24, 2014 at 1:16 PM

I am so sick of these elections swinging on the feelings of birth-canal vigilantes. Rabid partisan stupid women that think all of society revolves around their private parts.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2014 at 1:14 PM

My brother’s fiance voted in 2012 on a single issue, abortion. She agrees with conservative values in most other avenues, but is crazy about abortion.

NWConservative on April 24, 2014 at 1:17 PM

Polls: Udall vs. Gardner in a dead heat in Colorado

…Udall…needs to keep passing out more “fat ones”!

KOOLAID2 on April 24, 2014 at 1:18 PM

This should make the NYSwines and all the leftist thugs chit nails.

Schadenfreude on April 24, 2014 at 1:26 PM

Udall using war on women is what Bennett used on Ken Buck when Buck lost. It won’t work on Cory Gardner who is running in a different district. Cory is very popular in this district and when elected Senator, he will be a follower of Ted Cruz. The 1st and 2nd Amendments are the biggest issues in Colorado for all age groups and gender.

lea on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

A Mitch McConnell led senate doesn’t excite me

Is this Gardner guy a conservative or will he be a reliable rubber stamp for the GOP establishment?

tcufrog on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

Udall using war on women is what Bennett used on Ken Buck when Buck lost. It won’t work on Cory Gardner who is running in a different district. Cory is very popular in this district and when elected Senator, he will be a follower of Ted Cruz. The 1st and 2nd Amendments are the biggest issues in Colorado for all age groups and gender.

lea on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

…you are there!…so I hope you are right!

KOOLAID2 on April 24, 2014 at 1:29 PM

livelikeaslave will lose one of the Udalls, imagine.

If that happens, beer is on the house.

Schadenfreude on April 24, 2014 at 1:33 PM

Udall. Family dynasty. This has got to stop.

bour3 on April 24, 2014 at 1:33 PM

Funny, happened to my brother in law in his free wheeling youth….and all he ever consumed was beer. A LOT of beer.

hawkeye54 on April 24, 2014 at 1:16 PM

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

bigmacdaddy on April 24, 2014 at 1:37 PM

Comment #20 in another ground-breaking 35 comment Erika Johnsen post.

atheist on April 24, 2014 at 1:39 PM

Udall base will be too stone to go vote. So that should give Gardner an edge in the senate race.

BroncosRock on April 24, 2014 at 1:39 PM

…waking up 2 days later in the middle of a freeway minus their clothing.

Bishop on April 24, 2014 at 1:04 PM

That’s happened to you, too? Weird.

bigmacdaddy on April 24, 2014 at 1:11 PM

+1

RI_Red on April 24, 2014 at 1:43 PM

The gender gap is wide as Udall leads 52 – 35 percent among women while Gardner leads 53 – 38 percent among men.

So this begs the question…which gender is responsible for the progressives in power? “If women didn’t vote, we’d never have to worry about a Democrat getting elected again” – Ann Coulter

cajunpatriot on April 24, 2014 at 1:45 PM

Here in Colorado, Gardner could be ahead of Udall by 20% in the polls and still lose election day.

1) We have 64 counties in Colorado [actually, two of them are "City and Counties" but they are legally equivalent].

2) At the 2012 election, 17 of them had more registered voters than the total of men, women, children, and household pets according to the 2010 Census.

3) Another dozen counties had registration rates >95% of the voting age citizen population. Normal registration rates are around 50% plus or minus 10%.

4) After taking both Houses of the Legislature in 2012, and already holding the Governorship because the Colorado Republican Party deliberately sponsored a 3rd Party run by a RINO rather than support a duly nominated Conservative/TEA Party candidate; the Democrats did not only try to take our guns. They raised taxes on all rural areas. And they changed our election laws.

We used to have to show picture ID to vote. The Democrats a) made ALL elections mail-in ballots with no ID verification of who is voting and how many times, b) removed all restriction on registration and proof of residence. You can register in every county in the state, or multiple precincts in a county in urban areas with great ease and no chance of being caught. Not that Democrat law enforcement ever investigates vote fraud.

5) Like in the entire country, election results in Colorado are now only tenuously related to the actual votes of citizens.

6) The question is, when the “vote totals” are so obviously not related to what people want, and the legitimacy of the government installed by those “elections” is non-existent; what do we do?

Subotai Bahadur on April 24, 2014 at 1:50 PM

A Mitch McConnell led senate doesn’t excite me

Is this Gardner guy a conservative or will he be a reliable rubber stamp for the GOP establishment?

tcufrog on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

I would expect a Senate with a 52-48 (R) majority to conduct itself in a similar fashion to the way the House as acted in the last year and a half. It’s not going to be pretty if you’re conservative.

Wigglesworth on April 24, 2014 at 1:54 PM

Funny, happened to my brother in law in his free wheeling youth….and all he ever consumed was beer. A LOT of beer.

hawkeye54 on April 24, 2014 at 1:16 PM

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

bigmacdaddy on April 24, 2014 at 1:37 PM

Not at all. Still consumes a fair amount in his not so free wheeling retirement. Sometimes wakes up without his clothes in his living room, but simply can’t manage to stagger as far as the front door these days. Which is a good thing for him……and his neighbors. :)

hawkeye54 on April 24, 2014 at 2:11 PM

Heh, illustrious

Schadenfreude on April 24, 2014 at 2:11 PM

Moved to the mountains to get away from idiots like Udall.

Then they gerrymandered my county with Boulder. My county, which has a total of about 14,000 human inhabitants.

So, my county has no representation.

BTW, Hot Air has started to suck. It loads too much crap, locks up and trying to type sucks as it keeps dragging behind. So, I spend less time here now.

Meremortal on April 24, 2014 at 2:12 PM

What a witch

Schadenfreude on April 24, 2014 at 2:13 PM

A Mitch McConnell led senate doesn’t excite me

Is this Gardner guy a conservative or will he be a reliable rubber stamp for the GOP establishment?

tcufrog on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

I would expect a Senate with a 52-48 (R) majority to conduct itself in a similar fashion to the way the House as acted in the last year and a half. It’s not going to be pretty if you’re conservative.

Wigglesworth on April 24, 2014 at 1:54 PM

Really??????

Really??????

We have the chance to put the nail in the coffin of the Obama presidency. Just like they did in 2006 with the Bush presidency. We have the chance to give solid, objective, electoral proof to the claim that this was a “failed presidency”, by making him a leader who came into power with his party in control of Congress, and left office with his party firmly out of power. We have the chance to brand his socialist arse, and the arses of all those socialist Dems who backed him, as historical losers.

And somehow, that isn’t good enough for you?

Really??????

JohnGalt23 on April 24, 2014 at 2:16 PM

BTW, Hot Air has started to suck. It loads too much crap, locks up and trying to type sucks as it keeps dragging behind. So, I spend less time here now.

Meremortal on April 24, 2014 at 2:12 PM

I use Chrome with AdBlock. HA never causes me a problem…

JohnGalt23 on April 24, 2014 at 2:22 PM

We have the chance to put the nail in the coffin of the Obama presidency.
JohnGalt23 on April 24, 2014 at 2:16 PM

Ha ha. That sounds like an RNC fundraising email written by Rancid Preibus.

Wigglesworth on April 24, 2014 at 2:23 PM

Really??????

Really??????

We have the chance to put the nail in the coffin of the Obama presidency. Just like they did in 2006 with the Bush presidency. We have the chance to give solid, objective, electoral proof to the claim that this was a “failed presidency”, by making him a leader who came into power with his party in control of Congress, and left office with his party firmly out of power. We have the chance to brand his socialist arse, and the arses of all those socialist Dems who backed him, as historical losers.

And somehow, that isn’t good enough for you?

Really??????

JohnGalt23 on April 24, 2014 at 2:16 PM

OK so lets play along and say GOP takes the senate and the Obama presidency is shut down.

Now what?

Do both chambers start to push for Obamacare repeal? Spending cuts? Squash any amnesty efforts? Defeat any debt ceiling increases?

Or do we get more of the same: Expanded government, more bureaucracy, and less liberty.

Sometimes there needs to be more done than just defeating someone

tcufrog on April 24, 2014 at 2:23 PM

Let’s toss that liberal out of office!

TaterTot on April 24, 2014 at 2:25 PM

tcufrog on April 24, 2014 at 2:23 PM

OK so lets play along and say GOP takes the senate and the Obama presidency is shut down.

Now what?

Then, the 2016 election campaign season begins. The Liar-in-Chief starts his slow slide into irrelevance, as the Democratic Party either fights it out or gets behind Frau Pantsuit. Either way, Obama’s political capital crumbles very quickly.

Do both chambers start to push for Obamacare repeal? Spending cuts? Squash any amnesty efforts? Defeat any debt ceiling increases?

They do nothing. Not anything meaningful, at least. They investigate. They issue subpoenas. And hopefully, quickly, they rally behind someone. I hope it is Rand Paul. I expect others to feel differently. But hopefully they get behind someone to helpthe party find its collective voice.

But until then, there are post offices to be named.

Or do we get more of the same: Expanded government, more bureaucracy, and less liberty.

It goes on autopilot. I can’t promise you any better than that.

But no appointments to executive agencies. No new cabinet members. No new judges. No Supreme Court appointments. No more finagling with the filibuster.

NOTHING.

And from there, whoever our standard bearer be, let him set the agenda for 2017…

JohnGalt23 on April 24, 2014 at 2:34 PM

We have the chance to put the nail in the coffin of the Obama presidency.

JohnGalt23

The only thing that’s going to put the nail in the coffin of the Obama presidency is term limits. It certainly won’t happen via the go along to get along republican crowd.

xblade on April 24, 2014 at 2:36 PM

Meremortal, I feel your pain. I’m in Summit County, represented by Polis, Udall, Bennet, Millie Hamner, etc. No one to listen to my concerns. (And I can tell you a Jared Polis story that could really give you the creeps.) I hope Udall is thrown out, but I don’t know if the state will do that. I’ll do what I can do make it happen, but I think too many Californians have moved to our state and have brought their bad (voting) habits with them. Screw up their state and move here because of what we had. Now they are messing up Colorado.

COgirl on April 24, 2014 at 3:13 PM

I am so sick of these elections swinging on the feelings of birth-canal vigilantes. Rabid partisan stupid women that think all of society revolves around their private parts.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2014 at 1:14 PM

I’m a woman, and agree with you 100%. If any party has a “war on women” it’s the Ds.

Besides that, a strong majority support banning abortions after the first trimester.

cat_owner on April 24, 2014 at 3:39 PM

Is this Gardner guy a conservative or will he be a reliable rubber stamp for the GOP establishment?

tcufrog on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

I don’t think he’s another Ted Cruz, but he’d be a lot more conservative than Scott Brown.

He’s definitely pro life, which is why he’s being hit with the “War on women” crap. Ken Buck withdrew from the Senate race and endorsed Cory, and he’s now running for Cory’s house seat.

But if you want another Ted Cruz, I would think that T. W. Shannon, running for Coburn’s Oklahoma seat, is your guy.

cat_owner on April 24, 2014 at 3:43 PM

Screw up their state and move here because of what we had. Now they are messing up Colorado.

COgirl on April 24, 2014 at 3:13 PM

And Texas. But we have a much bigger population to shift so it’s going to take longer.

Missy on April 24, 2014 at 3:53 PM

Udall using war on women is what Bennett used on Ken Buck when Buck lost. It won’t work on Cory Gardner who is running in a different district. Cory is very popular in this district and when elected Senator, he will be a follower of Ted Cruz. The 1st and 2nd Amendments are the biggest issues in Colorado for all age groups and gender.

lea on April 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM

Sorry, but just gotta correct something you seem to be saying.
He’s not running in his district where he may be popular.
He’s running for a Senate seat which is statewide.

dentarthurdent on April 24, 2014 at 4:19 PM

This Election is going to be very corrupt the state leg made the election laws very open. for instance you can vote this same day you register. Also surprise surprise a third party candidate just joined the race between Udall and Gardner.

ChunkyLover on April 24, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Bad news for us, because a public opinion poll doesn’t measure stolen votes. We need to be up a few points in a public opinion poll before an election for a really close ‘vote’.

slickwillie2001 on April 24, 2014 at 4:36 PM

Also surprise surprise a third party candidate just joined the race between Udall and Gardner.

ChunkyLover on April 24, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Just found that – took some searching.
Steve Shogan – doctor and lawyer – against 0bumblscare – but registered Dem until 2007.
Not sure who he will pull most votes from….

dentarthurdent on April 24, 2014 at 4:48 PM

I have a feeling that the gun control debate will turn Colorado solidly red again. Man, they seriously believe this “Democrat majority” nonsense.

Carolynp on April 24, 2014 at 5:13 PM

Subotai Bahadur on April 24, 2014 at 1:50 PM

Many people, myself included, would begin to form up local militias from the squad level up, then company , then battalion. At the battalion level you should be able to exert more pressure.

The only way to fight that kind of corruption is probably have certain counties try to leave the state.

If Colorado’s voting laws are that loose, it is too late at this point. It is probably over as the Dems have been manufacturing votes in battleground states like FL, OH, VA.

This is why it is so important to reform voter laws and crack down on the cheating by the Dems at the stae level.

Oh, and that is why the Dems are for the National Popular Vote stuff because thru their systematic corruption in the cities they could easily create up to 5 million fraudulent votes to add to the national total, thereby forcing the NPV states to switch their electoral numbers.

Short of armed conflict, this country is finished as soon as the Dems/Progs get that fifth vote on the SCOTUS.

Since the good people in this country will not go to war, it is over.

We will continue our slide to mediocrity and the government will continue to grow into a full-blown police state.

I don’t see anything stopping this slide because there are no leaders who see it coming and are willing to give up everything to lead the fight.

KirknBurker on April 24, 2014 at 6:34 PM

I got polled in this race the other day.

Although to be honest “push-polled for Udall” is more accurate.

A lot of “If Udall said THIS about Gardener, would you find it persuasive, or not persuasive?”.

And no questions like that on the other side.
ZERO counter-questions.

Given that 80%+ of their commentary was unpersuasive, and I interrupted a handful of questions before they finished as just too stupid to bother with; it wasn’t very effective push polling, but it was push-polling.

They should have internal poll results from the Udall camp out soon. I can’t imagine anyone else using those questions.

gekkobear on April 24, 2014 at 6:43 PM

This Election is going to be very corrupt the state leg made the election laws very open. for instance you can vote this same day you register. Also surprise surprise a third party candidate just joined the race between Udall and Gardner.

ChunkyLover on April 24, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Here, in Ohio, with two GOP houses and Kasich and a GOP Sec of State, we shortened early voting by a week, eliminating a week period during which you could register and vote at the same time. To listen to blacks, in particular, you’d think that Ohio enacted “separate but equal” standards statewide. It’s pathetic. How did blacks vote on Election Day before 2008 or so?

BuckeyeSam on April 24, 2014 at 10:01 PM