NYT poll shows Pryor up 10 in Arkansas

posted at 9:21 am on April 23, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Republicans need to win six Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber, and most scenarios for victory include the Southern seats up for grabs. A poll out today from the New York Times and the Kaiser Family Foundation suggests that may be tougher than first thought. Mark Pryor, considered to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the midterms, has a ten-point lead over his Republican challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton:

The survey underscores a favorable political environment over all for Republicans in Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas — states President Obama lost in 2012 and where his disapproval rating runs as high as 60 percent. But it also shows how circumstances in each state are keeping them in play for the Democrats a little more than six months before the midterm elections.

Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, a two-term incumbent who has been considered perhaps the most imperiled Democratic senator in the country, holds a 10-point lead over his Republican opponent, Representative Tom Cotton. Mr. Pryor, the son of a former senator, has an approval rating of 47 percent, with 38 percent of Arkansas voters disapproving of him.

Senator Kay Hagan, Democrat of North Carolina, appears more endangered as she seeks a second term. She has the support of 42 percent of voters, and Thom Tillis, the Republican state House speaker and front-runner for his party’s nomination, is at 40 percent. Unlike Mr. Pryor, however, Ms. Hagan’s approval rating, 44 percent, is the same as her disapproval number. In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, is also effectively tied with his Democratic rival, Alison Lundergan Grimes, a race that may be close because Mr. McConnell, first elected to the Senate in 1984, has the approval of only 40 percent of voters, while 52 percent disapprove. But Ms. Grimes must overcome Mr. Obama’s deep unpopularity in the state, where only 32 percent of voters approve of his performance.

With 42 percent support, Senator Mary Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, has an early lead in a race that is not fully formed against a large field of Republicans. Representative Bill Cassidy, the Republican front-runner, was the choice of 18 percent, and 20 percent had no opinion. There are two other Republicans in the race, but Louisiana has no primary. So all candidates of both parties will be on the ballot in November and, absent one of them taking 50 percent, there will be a runoff in December.

The outcome in Arkansas, at least, seems a little odd in contrast to other numbers inside and outside of this poll. For instance, Barack Obama’s approval rating in Arkansas within the NYT/KFF poll is 32/59, and even when his national numbers were much better in 2012, Obama lost Arkansas 37/60 to Mitt Romney. No Democratic candidate for the House even got to 40% in that election.

Furthermore, a quick check of the RCP poll average for Arkansas shows this as an outlier. That’s more true of Cotton’s standing, though, than Pryor’s. His support has been consistent at 46%, although not a great number for an incumbent, especially one with Pryor’s prominent family name. Cotton, though, also polled in the mid-40s even up to earlier this month, when he got 43% in the Talk Business poll, and going all the way back to last summer. Why would he drop to the mid-30s at this point?

I’m inclined to chalk this up as an outlier, but it still should serve as a warning to the GOP, too. It won’t be a cakewalk to beat Pryor, or for that matter to win any of these races. Republicans can run against Obama, whose approval numbers are atrocious across the board, but they’d better be clear as to what they’re for as well. Names like Pryor and Landrieu still carry weight in states Republicans should win this year.

Update: Dr. Pradheep Shanker makes an interesting catch:

https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/458960059465072640

Usually, it’s presidential cycles that bring out significant numbers of new voters.

Update: Bill Kristol finds another reason to distrust the numbers:

In other words, the Times and Kaiser have produced a sample in Arkansas that reports they voted in 2012 for Romney over Obama–by one point. But Romney carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3.

The whole point of question 12 is to provide a reality test for the sample. That’s why they ask that question–we know what happened in 2012, so the only thing to be learned by asking the 2012 question of the sample is to ensure that it’s a reasonably accurate snapshot of voters in the state. Of course there’ll always be some variance between reality and the sample’s report of its vote a year and a half ago–but not a 23 point variance.

Yikes. Interestingly, though, the difference didn’t actually boost Pryor, as I already noted above.


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Because if the NYT says it, it must be true.

BettyRuth on April 23, 2014 at 9:23 AM

As an Arkansan I’m confident this is false. We absolutely loathe Obamacare and booted Lincoln because of it. We’re chomping at the bit to show Pryor the door as well.

He’s a creature of Washington and Obama, not Arkansas.

Charlemagne on April 23, 2014 at 9:25 AM

They only polled welfare and food stamp recipients…

PatriotRider on April 23, 2014 at 9:26 AM

The New York Slimes, All the News That’s Print to Fit.

Viator on April 23, 2014 at 9:27 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

When they go to the polls…things change, and this year it will be even more apparent.

Dems may dig in, or they may just throw up their hands.

The effort will be, as always, how motivated are the voters to vote?

The Republican’s need to be sure and get out to vote…and vote again to beat the dems.

As the old saying goes…My father was a life time Republican voter until he died…than he became a democrat.

right2bright on April 23, 2014 at 9:29 AM

I’m calling BS on this poll.

BigGator5 on April 23, 2014 at 9:30 AM

Alternate headline: Poll of Pryor household shows 46% support for Mark.

blammm on April 23, 2014 at 9:30 AM

I discounted the polls leading up the presidential elections in both 2008 and 2012, neither one of those worked out very well for me.

Kat_man on April 23, 2014 at 9:33 AM

If anyone can lose when they should win, it’s the GOP.

After all, if they win, they may have to live up to their promises, and in politics that ain’t a good thing.

Smegley on April 23, 2014 at 9:33 AM

NYT never printed a known lie before, did they?

Rix on April 23, 2014 at 9:34 AM

Oh how the morning joe crew loved this poll this am

Beware GOP
-msdnc

cmsinaz on April 23, 2014 at 9:36 AM

Obama lost Arkansas 37/60 to Mitt Romney.

p. 8:

vt12. Did you vote in the 2012 presidential election, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote? (IF VOTED, ASK: Did you vote for Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else?)

Obama: 26, Romney: 27

blammm on April 23, 2014 at 9:38 AM

If in the south an ObamaCare loving military insulting Senator can be re-elected over a decent man…. I’m glad I’m in Texas and I say build a 360 degree wall and as Marge Simpson said : “Build it higher than the sky, Homie, and deeper than hell!!”

Marcus on April 23, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

A good point. Cotton does seem immeasurably better than Pryor, but he is running as a very mainstream Republican.

M240H on April 23, 2014 at 9:40 AM

cotton is going to crush him – mind you cotton has the makings of the next mccain regarding foreign policy

uatu1878 on April 23, 2014 at 9:41 AM

NYT is just trying to fire up it’s base, which is in a real funk.
Don’t believe a damn thing they put out.

jeffinsjvca on April 23, 2014 at 9:42 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Likewise. The “Senate takeover” is biggest political non-story of the year.

rrpjr on April 23, 2014 at 9:43 AM

At least Pryor won’t have to carry that heavy Bible around now.

Bishop on April 23, 2014 at 9:45 AM

We were laughing at polling samples all through 2012….until November.

Mord on April 23, 2014 at 9:45 AM

Those who didn’t believe the polls got burned in 2012, so I wouldn’t discount these results.

But if the GOP can’t win a good share of these Senate elections in this political environment, then they are a tiny, minority party forever.

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:46 AM

NYT is just trying to fire up it’s base, which is in a real funk.
Don’t believe a damn thing they put out.

jeffinsjvca on April 23, 2014 at 9:42 AM

Just like the polls were wrong in 2012, huh?

Didn’t we learn our lesson?

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

If in the south an ObamaCare loving military insulting Senator can be re-elected over a decent man….

Marcus on April 23, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Cotton’s not all that decent a man. You forget he went to Harvard. ;0

Happy Nomad on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

I do! Let’s use the same strategy the Dems used after 2006, setting themselves up for victory in 2008.

Donald Draper on April 23, 2014 at 9:50 AM

Just like the polls were wrong in 2012, huh?

Didn’t we learn our lesson?

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

So one poll that goes the wrong way settles the issue?

Throat Wobbler Mangrove on April 23, 2014 at 9:51 AM

I want the NYT poll showing Wendy Davis ahead by 10 points. She’s such a disaster here she’s practically gone invisible.

Marcus on April 23, 2014 at 9:54 AM

I do! Let’s use the same strategy the Dems used after 2006, setting themselves up for victory in 2008.

Donald Draper on April 23, 2014 at 9:50 AM

Two evils don’t make a good.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:55 AM

Just like the polls were wrong in 2012, huh?

Didn’t we learn our lesson?

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

And JFKerry was supposed to beat the crap out of Dubya.

Bishop on April 23, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Nobody believed the Obama polls in 2012 either…

Republicans always get lulled to sleep by thinking “no body in their right mind would vote for XXXX”. But they do and Republicans lose for not trying harder.

Democrats always win using the scare tactic:
“Nancy Pelosi: GOP budget takes food out of the mouths of people of color”
http://twitchy.com/2014/04/22/nancy-pelosi-gop-budget-takes-food-out-of-the-mouths-of-people-of-color/

albill on April 23, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Nate Silver’s not at the Times anymore — in fact, the peeved Gray Lady has started its own political stats geek site to compete with Silver’s Five-Thirty-Eight website now over at ESPN.

So take that into account with this polling and the Times’ general hubris. They’re trying to get the eyes of their regular readers over to their new Upshot Blog, and the easiest way to do that is to give them some initial information they want to read that shows great news for the Democrats in November (and which is an outlier from the forecast Silver made a couple of weeks ago that got him branded a heretic on the left). Polls six-plus months out from Election Day not only are open to question, but are never verifiable, since so many things can happen in the ensuing time period. If the Times’ geek stats are still at odds with Silver post-Labor Day, that’s when they’ll actually start putting their own reputations on the line.

jon1979 on April 23, 2014 at 10:03 AM

“the Times and Kaiser have produced a sample in Arkansas that reports they voted in 2012 for Romney over Obama–by one point. But Romney carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3.

The whole point of question 12 is to provide a reality test for the sample. That’s why they ask that question–we know what happened in 2012, so the only thing to be learned by asking the 2012 question of the sample is to ensure that it’s a reasonably accurate snapshot of voters in the state. Of course there’ll always be some variance between reality and the sample’s report of its vote a year and a half ago–but not a 23 point variance.”

so if the above sample from the poll is correct, all three senators are going down hard to defeat in a few months..

AirForceCane on April 23, 2014 at 10:17 AM

Just like the polls were wrong in 2012, huh?

Didn’t we learn our lesson?

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

And JFKerry was supposed to beat the crap out of Dubya.

Bishop on April 23, 2014 at 9:59 AM

That’s ridiculously incorrect.

The final polls in 2004 had Bush leading Kerry. My God, stop this insanity. Why do some refuse to learn their lesson?

RCP Average
FINAL
50.0%
48.5%
1.0%
Bush +1.5
RCP Average
10/27 – 11/1
48.9%
47.4%
0.9%
Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV)
11/1
49%
50%
0%
Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)
10/31 – 11/1
50%
46%
0%
Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV)
10/30 – 11/1
50.1%
48.0%
1.1%
Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV)
10/29 – 11/1
49%
47%
1%
Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV)
10/29 – 11/1
49%
48%
2%
Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV)
10/30 – 10/31
46%
48%
1%
Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)
10/29 – 10/31
48%
47%
1%
Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*
10/29 – 10/31
49%
49%
1%
TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)
10/29 – 10/31
48%
47%
1%
Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**
10/28 – 10/31
49%
48%
0%
Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV)
10/28 – 10/30
48%
48%
1%
TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV)
10/28 – 10/30
49%
46%
1%
Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV)
10/27 – 10/30
51%
48%
1%
Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV)
10/27 – 10/29
5

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 10:20 AM

The NYT is just following instructions for DWS when she says that the dems will have no problems and obamacare is a great thing.

Pardonme on April 23, 2014 at 10:32 AM

This isn’t news to me…Dems are loved everywhere….HA!

People who believe this Horsesh*t are the most gullible
among us…ANY Incumbent will be leading until this Fall….

ToddPA on April 23, 2014 at 10:33 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Lundergan-Grimes ’14! “Because it’s better to have someone who never votes the way you want than someone who votes the way you want most of the time!”

McConnell voted against healthcare “reform,” so he’s good enough for me. If Bevin was a serious candidate who has a shot I’d support him, but he isn’t and he doesn’t.

As for this article, after 2012 I have no confidence that polls oversampling Ds are inaccurate solely for that reason.

Ted the Average on April 23, 2014 at 10:37 AM

I do agree with Kristol. Polls should generally reflect the last election cycle with modest swings to reflect the current climate. If you were to have a +23 for the non-Obama voter then a little swing for Pryor because he is the incumbent and a little swing the other way for a typical mid-term electorate, this poll would look completely different.

Tater Salad on April 23, 2014 at 10:38 AM

I tend to think that this poll is an outlier, but I caution people about completely disregarding it. Too many did the last couple of election cycles and that did not turn out well.

Physics Geek on April 23, 2014 at 10:41 AM

I do! Let’s use the same strategy the Dems used after 2006, setting themselves up for victory in 2008.

Donald Draper on April 23, 2014 at 9:50 AM

To do that, the Dems would have to go after their own sacred cows. Never going to happen.

Just like the polls were wrong in 2012, huh?

Didn’t we learn our lesson?

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

I certainly learned my lesson: Americans who vote for freedom have no business calling the progs and their coalitions our fellow citizens. Ergo, it is time to divide the country.

nobar on April 23, 2014 at 10:41 AM

Folks, the argument over 2012 isn’t whether the polls were correct; Obama got out his vote (@6.5M less than ’08), it was the stay at home conservative leaning voter (@2.5M less) that gave us 0′s second term.

If we want the Senate get out and vote GOP. Don’t turn your nose up if you don’t get your preferred candidate.

Tater Salad on April 23, 2014 at 10:42 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.
ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Frankly, judging by these numbers, I don’t think your opinion is an outlier. Both parties believe Socialism is the way to go, with the exception of a handful of people

Brock Robamney on April 23, 2014 at 10:44 AM

Captain Cotton is currently fighting back against ads the WAPO described as lies. He has a clever ad airing that kills Pryor on his statements about Cotton’s military service. Arkansas is, like so many states, split into enclaves, with conservatives currently and clearly in the majority. If one polled, say, West Memphis and the southeast precincts of Little Rock, I could understand these results.This poll is, I believe as an Arkansan, an outlier.

efeightk on April 23, 2014 at 10:45 AM

with the exception of a handful of people

Brock Robamney on April 23, 2014 at 10:44 AM

Tell me, Bronco Bama, which side is the handful on?

Lanceman on April 23, 2014 at 10:54 AM

I’m calling BS on this poll.

BigGator5 on April 23, 2014 at 9:30 AM

…we need gummeandpoleme to com back with his poll analysis!

KOOLAID2 on April 23, 2014 at 11:06 AM

At this stage of the election cycle, Polls are used not to reflect public opinion, but to shape it. The idea is to create an aura of invincibility for demorats and to dispirit conservatives. I do not believe this poll.

If the NYT told me the sky was blue, I would take a piece of paper that I KNEW to be blue, put a hole in it, and then go outside to compare it to the sky. As the expression from my childhood says: “The lie like a rug!”

r27cj on April 23, 2014 at 11:13 AM

Yet another poll by a leading MSM outlet which is trying to INFLUENCE an election. Its the NYT and the state is Arkansas. I call bs

neyney on April 23, 2014 at 11:14 AM

And what else would you expect The New York Times to say?

rplat on April 23, 2014 at 11:16 AM

Remember: lowering the morale of Cotton’s base can severely hamper his fund raising. THAT is the goal of the NYT poll!

r27cj on April 23, 2014 at 11:16 AM

http://www.unskewedpolls.com ! We all know how that turned out right? You guys have the wrong message, that is why you will keep losing.

beverlyfreaks on April 23, 2014 at 11:22 AM

The NYT is just following instructions for DWS.

You do realize the other side says the equivalent about any Fox poll they don’t like.

The GOP shouldn’t feel confident that all it has to do is scream “Obamacare!” and independents are going running to pull the R lever. Just like everyone has their own economy, everyone has their own healthcare situation.

Yes I hate the lies of Obama. Yes I hate ACA’s disincentive to work. Yes I hate the law’s inefficiencies and uncertainty. Yes I hate the dissembling of the press in supporting the law.

But in the end, it may wind up being not all that bad for me. That’s true for a lot of other people. And they’re not disposed to voting against the Dems like I am.

bobs1196 on April 23, 2014 at 11:26 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

So one led by dirty Harry is better? I’m not a fan of McConnell but baby steps are better than backwards steps.

lpd_1 on April 23, 2014 at 11:26 AM

I’ll reserve my judgement until after I hear from the wizard of poll punditry, your friend and mine, GumbyandPokey… \sarc (of course)

bimmcorp on April 23, 2014 at 11:31 AM

This poll may be wrong, but I’m just not feeling this whole “wave election” thing many have talked about. The GOP has no message whatsoever. The media is propping Obama up and basically making things up to boost his numbers. And the base is disgusted with the back-stabbing GOP. All of these things don’t give me a whole lot of confidence.

Jack_Burton on April 23, 2014 at 11:31 AM

Frankly I don’t give a damn about a Mitch McConnell led Senate.

ConstantineXI on April 23, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Same. I no longer fear total progressive rule. See my position on national divorce.

nobar on April 23, 2014 at 11:42 AM

Just like the polls were wrong in 2012, huh?

Didn’t we learn our lesson?

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 9:48 AM

Sorry, but that doesn’t mean every poll is worthy of consideration.

This is a clear outlier.

spinach.chin on April 23, 2014 at 11:46 AM

Anyone who voted for the Obamacare mess needs to be voted out, and that includes Pryor.

Amazingoly on April 23, 2014 at 11:49 AM

So one led by dirty Harry is better? I’m not a fan of McConnell but baby steps are better than backwards steps.
lpd_1 on April 23, 2014 at 11:26 AM

You do realize we are 117 Trillion in Debt don’t you? We don’t have time for these games. Frankly, it is too late for us to keep going on with these Neocon saboteurs

Brock Robamney on April 23, 2014 at 11:57 AM

In other words, the Times and Kaiser have produced a sample in Arkansas that reports they voted in 2012 for Romney over Obama–by one point. But Romney carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3.

So if we adjust the Senate numbers according to the difference between the NYT sample and reality in the 2012 Presidential race, then:

In AR: Pryor’s 10-point lead becomes a 13-point deficit.
In KY: McConnell’s tie becomes a 20-point lead.
In NC: Hagan’s 2-point lead becomes an 8-point deficit.

The situation is more complex in LA due to the lack of a primary, but Landrieu’s 42-18 lead over the leading Republican is more like a 4-point lead, and with 40% either undecided or voting for someone else, there will probably be a runoff in December in a state where both Romney and Gov. Jindal won easily.

But kudos to the NY Slimes for winning the Mark Twain “Damned Lies and Statistics” Award.

Steve Z on April 23, 2014 at 12:09 PM

The NYT poll is smoking crack.

MWC_RS on April 23, 2014 at 12:19 PM

The sun rose in the East, really.

Schadenfreude on April 23, 2014 at 12:37 PM

NO more Pryor, Begich, Landrieu and Hagan.

Out, out, out, all you scum who voted for the obama’care’ travesty, you hypocrites and liars.

The good people of your states deserve way better.

You all need to go the way of Blanche Lincoln. Period!!!

Schadenfreude on April 23, 2014 at 12:39 PM

I think NYT has fired up the base in Arkansas. No need for Dems to show up in November. Pryor has this thing in the bag. Right?

COgirl on April 23, 2014 at 12:40 PM

you do realize we are 117 Trillion in Debt don’t you? We don’t have time for these games. Frankly, it is too late for us to keep going on with these Neocon saboteurs

Brock Robamney on April 23, 2014 at 11:57 AM

I think it’s too late for any of this, we’ve already seen that you can’t run against Santa Claus. Before things can get better they’re going to have to first get worse, much worse. I say let it burn.

Kat_man on April 23, 2014 at 12:47 PM

There are:

Lies!
Damn Lies! and
Statistics!

To which we must now add: “Newspaper polls (and their interpretation)!”

EdmundBurke247 on April 23, 2014 at 12:53 PM

NY Times/Kaiser 4/8 – 4/15 857 RV 46 36 Pryor +10
Talk Business Poll* 4/3 – 4/4 1068 LV 46 43 Pryor +3
Hickman Analytics (D) 2/17 – 2/20 400 LV 46 46 Tie
Impact Management Group (R) 2/10 – 2/10 1202 RV 42 46 Cotton +4

crrr6 on April 23, 2014 at 1:03 PM

I bet they included all those Illegals who they expect to make into voters very shortly…

Ukiah on April 23, 2014 at 1:13 PM

We were laughing at polling samples all through 2012….until November.

Mord on April 23, 2014 at 9:45 AM

Yes and I am as guilty as anyone of that. But those polls consistently showed Obama ahead, or at least they did for most of the run-up to the election. This one is a complete outlier as well as internally consistent.

Just because not all polls are bunk, doesn’t mean no polls are bunk.

Missy on April 23, 2014 at 3:16 PM

internally *inconsistent*

Missy on April 23, 2014 at 3:17 PM

For the love of sweet baby jesus can someone PLEASE UNSKEW THESE POLLS for me!?!?!?!

I need some UNSKEWING!!!!!

everdiso on April 23, 2014 at 3:36 PM

We’ve seen this story before. Think 2012.

Polls say Obama will beat Romney.

Brainiac conservative pollsters deny their accuracy.

Obama thumps Romney.

Karl Rove melts down on Fox.

Dick Morris goes into hiding.

And now in 2014, polls are once again not telling the truth.

I won’t be fooled into false hope this time.

Carnac on April 23, 2014 at 3:46 PM

Sabato says Arkansas’s leaning R, that’s where it’s going. R’s are going to pick up 4-8 Senate seats……..maybe more if julia can make that fool franken soil himself.

just keep showing ads with that rodent reid…u want to keep this vermin as senate majority leader??

gracie on April 23, 2014 at 3:59 PM

The Dems hold the Senate and make monor gains in the House. Disjointed, me-too, RINO-ism will not move the masses.

kingsmill on April 23, 2014 at 6:02 PM

minor

kingsmill on April 23, 2014 at 6:03 PM

NY Times/Kaiser 4/8 – 4/15 857 RV 46 36 Pryor +10
Talk Business Poll* 4/3 – 4/4 1068 LV 46 43 Pryor +3
Hickman Analytics (D) 2/17 – 2/20 400 LV 46 46 Tie
Impact Management Group (R) 2/10 – 2/10 1202 RV 42 46 Cotton +4

crrr6 on April 23, 2014 at 1:03 PM

Two of those polls you cite are a couple months old.

We’re going to be going through this “poll denying” again this election cycle.

mypalfish on April 23, 2014 at 6:50 PM

Even Harry Enten (works for Nate) says the NYT poll is wrong.

He’s a card-carrying librul, so of course he’d love to believe it’s right.

WhirledPeas on April 23, 2014 at 7:23 PM

Look at that number in the poll again, though:

Pryor 46, Cotton 36

That is a total of 82% which means 18% on the fence. That’s huge for an incumbent Senator, especially one that has been there since the 2002 election. We will see if this tightens up but 18% undecided with a Senator who has been in office for 12 years is pretty bad. Late undecideds almost always break away from the incumbent.

crosspatch on April 24, 2014 at 4:09 AM