Gallup poll shows potential ObamaCare downside in the fall

posted at 10:01 am on April 12, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

So far, the victory lap taken by Barack Obama after the end of ObamaCare open enrollment hasn’t impressed anyone, at least according to the latest Gallup survey.  Approval of the law ticked up within the margin of error since the last survey in March, but disapproval remains near its peak:

With the open enrollment period for obtaining health insurance through a federal government exchange now over, Americans’ views on the broader healthcare law remain more negative than positive. Currently, 43% approve and 54% disapprove of the law, commonly known as “Obamacare.” The approval figure is a bit higher than Gallup’s estimates since last November, but disapproval is essentially unchanged. …

Americans’ overall approval of the law and expectations for its long-term effects on the healthcare system continue to be strongly related to their party affiliation. A vast majority of Democrats, 79%, approve of the law, and 69% think it will make the healthcare situation better. In contrast, 87% of Republicans disapprove of the law, and 77% think it will make the healthcare situation worse.

Independents are more negative than positive toward the law. They disapprove of the law by 65% to 32%, and 53% believe the law will make the healthcare situation worse compared with 26% who say better.

Basically, we still see stasis despite the self-congratulation of last week, which preceded the survey dates (April 7-8). The departure of Kathleen Sebelius isn’t likely to impact this one way or the other. Republicans dislike the law as much as ever, while Democrats may be rallying around it a little bit. The view among independents appears to have worsened slightly, as only 17% think it will make their own lives and those of their family better, as opposed to 39% who think it will make it worse, after a 20/38 reading from the beginning of March.

Otherwise, nothing much has changed. A couple of points should be noted, though, about the potential downside as the 2015 mandates and premiums approach. So far, most of the impact of ObamaCare has been on the individual market, with the employer market shielded from much of the churn and turmoil. That’s why the percentage of those claiming that ObamaCare had no effect on them remains in the mid-60s (64%) as it has since the rollout. Before ObamaCare, only 15% of the US was uninsured, and that’s still the percentage that claims ObamaCare has helped them. Another 18% claim to have been hurt by ObamaCare, outstripping those boosted by the law.

What happens when ObamaCare’s employer mandates hit? Most of that 64% will get some sort of impact, and it’s not likely to be overwhelmingly positive, either. They will either lose their current plans and get forced into higher deductibles and higher premiums, or get pushed out of employer-subsidized coverage altogether. It won’t just be the mandates that drive those pricing changes, either. As I wrote in my column for The Fiscal Times, a new study of exchange consumers from Express Scripts makes it pretty clear that the risk pools got sicker and not healthier in this first round:

Moreover, those who did enroll through the state exchanges didn’t provide the demographic lift and risk-pool support needed to prevent massive increases in either premiums or deductibles, or both, in the near future.  Pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts, which collected more data from insurers than HHS managed through its own exchanges, determined that the incoming enrollees require more medical attention than the previous risk pools, not less – which means that insurers will need to raise premiums even more than first thought.

Their new study shows, for instance, that the enrollees from state and federal exchanges have a 47 percent higher use of specialty medications than in commercial plans in general. “Increased volume for higher cost specialty drugs can have a significant impact on the cost burden for both plan sponsors and patients,” the report reminds readers. “Despite comprising less than 1 percent of all U.S. prescriptions,” the report continues, “specialty medications now account for more than a quarter of the country’s total pharmacy spend.”

The medications themselves show that the care costs will increase relative to the existing risk pools as well. The rate for HIV medications in Obamacare exchange plans is four times higher than in existing commercial plans. Medication prescriptions are 35 percent higher, and anti-seizure medication increases 27 percent. Ironically, the only category where exchange consumers have lower demand than commercial-plan customers is in contraception – the focus of a big political battle in the employer mandate.

As Express Scripts, which studied changes in pharmacy benefits concludes that the ACA has succeeded in getting coverage to consumers who need it. However, that comes at a high cost for those who had their existing coverage canceled and saw their premiums and deductibles skyrocket as a result of Obamacare.

 

Insurers will start communicating those new premiums and deductibles this summer, and businesses will start making decisions about coverage by early fall. Employees will experience those shocks well ahead of the midterm elections. Few of them will be pleased with the changes, which means a large amount of the 64% reporting no impact will have their minds changed on that point …. and probably not for the better.

Democrats needed a lot better than stasis coming out of the open-enrollment period in order to compete in the midterms. They may long for it when the ObamaCare churn hits the employer-based market in the fall.

Michael Ramirez had this excellent editorial cartoon about Obama’s victory lap earlier this week at Investors Business Daily:

ramirez-titanic-lg

In this case, though, we don’t really need lookouts in the crow’s nest to see the iceberg ahead.

Also, be sure to check out Ramirez’ terrific collection of his works: Everyone Has the Right to My Opinion, which covers the entire breadth of Ramirez’ career, and it gives fascinating look at political history.  Read my review here, and watch my interviews with Ramirez here and here.  And don’t forget to check out the entire Investors.com site, which has now incorporated all of the former IBD Editorials, while individual investors still exist.


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Bishop… is back?

bofh on April 12, 2014 at 10:12 AM

The worst is yet to come…

climbnjump on April 12, 2014 at 10:12 AM

What a complete clusterfark…

OmahaConservative on April 12, 2014 at 10:12 AM

7.1 million high-need, highly subsidized customers.

1. Pass a law
2. ???
3. Pass another law

BobMbx on April 12, 2014 at 10:12 AM

Unlike the U.S.A., the passengers of The Titanic didn’t vote for hitting the iceberg …

ShainS on April 12, 2014 at 10:13 AM

WHERE’S THE STORY ABT DINGY, DIRTY, VILE LYING HAIRY REID & THAT HE IS RISKING PEOPLE’S LIVES IN NEVADA?

Bambi on April 12, 2014 at 10:14 AM

With the open enrollment period for obtaining health insurance through a federal government exchange now over

What a sentence. Welfare on a schedule. Double jeopardy.

jangle12 on April 12, 2014 at 10:14 AM

The Titanic? Obama thinks he’s on the Good Ship Lollipop.

Fenris on April 12, 2014 at 10:15 AM

Another crunch I’m predicting. Those first timers who took the con and signed up. They get the bill.
Do they pay Obamacare premium or their apartment rental
Do they pay Obamacare premium or their car payment
Or food, or electrical bill, or phone bill.
Premiums are predicted to rise in 2014 (California, by 51%).

How many will decide to stop paying premiums for an insurance they now see they don’t need and can’t afford?

kurtzz3 on April 12, 2014 at 10:16 AM

Ramirez rocks!

workingclass artist on April 12, 2014 at 10:17 AM

How many will decide to stop paying premiums for an insurance they now see they don’t need and can’t afford?

kurtzz3 on April 12, 2014 at 10:16 AM

They obviously aren’t prioritizing healthcare.

BobMbx on April 12, 2014 at 10:19 AM

I know two families that have signed up for Obamacare. Two families that I know well. Both talk about it neutrally to positive. It has not been a bad experience and for both, it has been better than they expected. Neither of these 2 families are liberal.
If their costs skyrocket, this will be a disaster. The Democrats need the midterms now. I wonder if Obama can pass an EO.

I agree………I’ve been waiting for a Nevada story too.

ORconservative on April 12, 2014 at 10:20 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

The worst is yet to come (‘pubs), the best is yet to come (Dem’s). “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Do I see an oncoming Revolution? Or is it an oncoming juggernaut of more gummint control, lawlessness and anarchy? My old predictions remain the same: The ‘pubs MAY regain the Senate and keep the House, guaranteeing more paralysis via Rino/Conservative infighting; the ‘pub circular firing squad will guarantee 8 years of Billary (unless she slips in the tub and breaks her neck) and the destruction of the Republic will be complete…

vnvet on April 12, 2014 at 10:25 AM

“Good news… We have a full ship. 7.1 million..”

How many of those are stowaways…?

Electrongod on April 12, 2014 at 10:29 AM

How many will decide to stop paying premiums for an insurance they now see they don’t need and can’t afford?

kurtzz3 on April 12, 2014 at 10:16 AM

You mean…

Jump ship?

:)

Electrongod on April 12, 2014 at 10:30 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Yeah…Why isn’t Harry Reid’s connection to the BLM land grab being investigated?

workingclass artist on April 12, 2014 at 10:32 AM

Funny how they think that the 7+ million erased the lies and real problems. ..like magic. Dems, run on it!!

CW on April 12, 2014 at 10:34 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Probably afraid of what us commenters will say about it. HotAir works hard to be respectable and accepted in polite society.

Fenris on April 12, 2014 at 10:34 AM

Yeah…Why isn’t Harry Reid’s connection to the BLM land grab being investigated?

workingclass artist on April 12, 2014 at 10:32 AM

By who?

Fenris on April 12, 2014 at 10:36 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Obama said to Putin indirectly…..
“I will be more flexible after the election…”

But if an American citizen has an issue with Obama’s regime…

Intimidate!
Take their property!
Tazer!

Electrongod on April 12, 2014 at 10:37 AM

A vast majority of Democrats, 79%, approve of the law, and 69% think it will make the healthcare situation better.

The non-economics and non-math party.

BuckeyeSam on April 12, 2014 at 10:39 AM

“On top of rising premiums, Obamacare taxes are adding hundreds of dollars per year onto customers’ costs, according to new study from the American Action Forum.

Those who braved the health-care law’s exchanges will have to pay an extra $354 on average in 2014, reports the free-market D.C.-based think tank, just due to seven taxes included in Obamacare.

The vast majority of the country covered by employer-sponsored health insurance will be forced to pay a somewhat lower tab of $196 to cover the taxes. Those with self-funded employer-sponsored insurance are exempt from several of the largest culprits and will have the lowest added cost at $94 in 2014, which will drop to $59 by 2016.

One is aimed at the insurance companies, forcing them to pay the federal government for the privilege of selling health insurance — an ironic touch for a law meant to make health coverage cheaper. AAF estimates that this tax alone, which will be passed onto consumers, will cost an extra $101 in 2014; in 2015 and 2016, it’ll be increased to $143 on average as the federal government ups their funding requests every year.

In 2014, the total tax will amount to $8 billion; in 2015 and 2016, it’ll be $11.3 billion, and the current plan comes it at $14.3 billion in 2018.

A similar tax targets pharmaceutical companies, upping the cost of paying for medicine. That one piles on just $16 to existing premiums per year. This one will account for $3 billion for each of the next three years, also divided amongst pharmaceutical companies by their market share. The controversial medical device tax add $13 in 2014, $14 in 2015, and $15 in 2016.

The reinsurance fee — commonly known as bailout funding, a pool of money for insurance companies to draw from if their pool of customers on the exchanges cost more than expected to insure – raising premium prices as well. The fee gradually decreases over the next three years as the reinsurance program is scheduled to end in 2016. This year, it will cost customers an extra $63 to raise $12 billion total; in 2016 it’ll add another $26 during the tax’s final year to collect $5 billion.

Exchange plans cost significantly more than those from private insurers because they’re subject to the health exchange user fee, a 3.5 percent tax placed on all premiums in the federally run Obamacare exchnage. The idea is for exchanges to eventually become self-sustaining by having exchange customers pay the administrative costs themselves.

In state-run exchanges, the tax varies But customers in states with unexpectedly low enrollment will likely face tax increases soon. Many exchanges, including California, Hawaii and Minnesota, are already worried about how they’ll raise enough funding from existing rates.

While enrollment has risen in the past several months, customers in individual states with low numbers of sign-ups may see their insurance premiums rise anyway. Hawaii’s exchange, notorious for already incurring the highest cost to insure each sign-up, has even considered taxing non-exchange insurers to pay for their Obamacare marketplace….”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2014/04/11/obamacare-taxes-add-billions-to-rising-premiums/#ixzz2ygQftEP6

workingclass artist on April 12, 2014 at 10:43 AM

That Gallup poll is false, all those people are lying

– Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

UltimateBob on April 12, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Independents are more negative than positive toward the law. They disapprove of the law by 65% to 32%, and 53% believe the law will make the healthcare situation worse compared with 26% who say better.

The use of “more negative” here seems to minimize the obvious fact that these are 2 to 1 margins. In politics, this is Armageddon.

J_Crater on April 12, 2014 at 10:53 AM

The problem is that people don’t see the difference between once paying say $200 /mo for Health Insurance and now paying say $400 / mo and having $200 of that subsidized by Gov. There is no stigma for being on Welfare. We have no pride left.

Whiterock on April 12, 2014 at 10:53 AM

The fact that Obama is more unpopular today than when he became POTUS shows that racism is on the rise, and Obama’s promise of a post-racial America is a failure .. his failure.

J_Crater on April 12, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Anyone see a thread on the Nevada Rancher/BLM issue on HA or the Headline threads?

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 10:56 AM

What is Harry Reid’s connection with the NV land grab?

karenhasfreedom on April 12, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

I have no idea. It took 3 days to get a thread up on the Heartbleed bug. That should have been up immediately as it is a major security issue!!

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:04 AM

What happens when ObamaCare’s employer mandates hit? Most of that 64% will get some sort of impact, and it’s not likely to be overwhelmingly positive, either.

And that will be… when? I’ve got $100 that says it *won’t* be before the 2014 elections.

Midas on April 12, 2014 at 11:05 AM

What is Harry Reid’s connection with the NV land grab?

karenhasfreedom on April 12, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Everything from what I can tell. RWM has a great post up:

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2014/04/is-dingy-harry-behind-seige-at-bundy.html

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:05 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

That could be where it all starts.

Midas on April 12, 2014 at 11:05 AM

Repost:

Well, Foxnews finally has a mention of the Nevada Rancher/BLM issue if you look hard for it. Must be popular, as it has over 8,000 comments.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/04/11/militia-groups-come-to-aid-nevada-rancher-in-battle-with-feds/?intcmp=trending

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 10:58 AM

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Forgot to mention, my last 2 comments were O/T

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:08 AM

Why has there not be an article on the NV story? All hell is going to break loose out there

Redford on April 12, 2014 at 10:21 AM

I think you are confusing Hot Air with a conservative site, which it hasn’t been for at least 3-5 years.

Beside, threads about Bradley Manning being parade grand marshal, the unlikely possibility of Marsha Blackburn running for President and some crackpot Illinois legislator calling someone “half a black person” are far more important than what’s happening at the Bundy Ranch or Heartbleed bug.

bw222 on April 12, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Rand Corp disputes the numbers, and Mike Less said it was under a million new signups. Someone has to call out the Carnival Barker In Chief on his numbers.

John the Libertarian on April 12, 2014 at 11:25 AM

bw222 on April 12, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Obama and a lot of Democrats fill the topics. Where are the Tea Party Conservatives point of view? Well, since Salem Communications, Hewitt & Prager all had a grand fundraiser for McConnell, I shouldn’t be surprised at the topics.

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:26 AM

All analysis aside, that’s a heck of a piece of art by Ramirez. Love the waves.

LashRambo on April 12, 2014 at 11:26 AM

Mike Lee

John the Libertarian on April 12, 2014 at 11:28 AM

Unlike the U.S.A., the passengers of The Titanic didn’t vote for hitting the iceberg …

ShainS on April 12, 2014 at 10:13 AM

Actually, the U.S.A. didn’t vote for hitting the iceberg-O’bamacare after all was passed without a single Republican vote.

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2014 at 11:29 AM

Actually, the U.S.A. didn’t vote for hitting the iceberg-O’bamacare after all was passed without a single Republican vote.

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2014 at 11:29 AM

True enough, but when Senator Cruz gave them a chance to vote to NOT FUND Obamacare, they showed their true red colors and voted with Obama, Reid and the Democrats TO FUND it.

Since then you’ve noticed that the Establishment Republicans have stopped bragging about “not one Republican voted for Obamacare.”

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Unlike the U.S.A., the passengers of The Titanic didn’t vote for hitting the iceberg …

ShainS on April 12, 2014 at 10:13 AM

Actually, the U.S.A. didn’t vote for hitting the iceberg-O’bamacare after all was passed without a single Republican vote.

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2014 at 11:29 AM

We were told, repeatedly, there were no icebergs.

John the Libertarian on April 12, 2014 at 12:09 PM

It’s obama’care’, because:

obama is never big, and

it’s not care.

Schadenfreude on April 12, 2014 at 12:27 PM

Tsunami is coming people.

We now they are going to lose a bunch of Senate seats, what about House seats? What are the experts saying?

As for Governors, I only see Corbett in Pa and Scott in Florida with a real chance of losing. and I actually think Scott will hold on in Florida. I lived there two years and people really came to hate Charlie Crist. Saw him as a liar!

I live in Ohio and I think Kasich is in great shape. His opponent, Ed Fitzgerald, hasn’t really caught on with voters. I call it “Fitzgerald Fever.”

anchorman on April 12, 2014 at 12:29 PM

OT……..Looks like Harry Reid is giving Nevada to China.

ORconservative on April 12, 2014 at 12:36 PM

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2014 at 11:29 AM

We were told, repeatedly, there were no icebergs.

John the Libertarian on April 12, 2014 at 12:09 PM

LOL, good one!!!

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 12:39 PM

Obama and a lot of Democrats fill the topics. Where are the Tea Party Conservatives point of view? Well, since Salem Communications, Hewitt & Prager all had a grand fundraiser for McConnell, I shouldn’t be surprised at the topics.

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:26 AM

Allahpundit and Ed were both hired by Michelle Malkin before she sold HA to Salem. It was kind of like William F. Buckley selecting Rich Lowry as his successor and Reagan selecting George H.W. Bush as his VP candidate.

bw222 on April 12, 2014 at 12:52 PM

Lol that cartoon is great :) RMS Obamacare :)

sorrowen on April 12, 2014 at 12:56 PM

The problem is that people don’t see the difference between once paying say $200 /mo for Health Insurance and now paying say $400 / mo and having $200 of that subsidized by Gov. There is no stigma for being on Welfare. We have no pride left.

Whiterock on April 12, 2014 at 10:53 AM

They will find out the difference if they try to actually use that new insurance that covers nothing for the first few thousand dollars and has lousy provider networks that fewer doctors will join.

slickwillie2001 on April 12, 2014 at 1:02 PM

I live in Ohio and I think Kasich is in great shape. His opponent, Ed Fitzgerald, hasn’t really caught on with voters. I call it “Fitzgerald Fever.”

anchorman on April 12, 2014 at 12:29 PM

Kasich will probably win. However, if he had a Republican Opponent worth anything, he would not. He signed up for Medicaid Expansion thru a run around of the Legislators that opposed it. Then he is all in for Common Core. He brags about reducing the State Income tax. At the same time he added at last count 17 or maybe more categories subject to the State Sales Taxes, which is an increase to now 7%. The 7% includes the State sales tax, County tax and City tax.

The State Income tax reduction helps only those that are employed. It doesn’t help the Seniors, those Unemployed and those that are receiving the perpetual Unemployment Insurance benefits. These sectors get to pay the additional Sales Tax increases.

He above anyone else should know the Country is broke. What is he going to do when Obama tells Kasich that Oops, sorry Gov, but we can’t fund the Medicaid Expansion like we “promised?” He will increase taxes to pay for it; unless you think he is going to remove the 280,000-300,000 people on the expanded Medicaid that he’s enrolled.

Then he had the nerve to go on a Sunday news show and said he’s getting back 15 billion dollars to return it to the State of Ohio. Really? No, he saddled Ohio with 15 billion dollars of new debt! His eyes have been blinded by a promise of Obama. For some unknown reason, Kasich believes that promise. He should have known that Obama has broken every promise he made before 2008 and each one since. But Kasich is a “believer.”

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 1:05 PM

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 11:26 AM

Allahpundit and Ed were both hired by Michelle Malkin before she sold HA to Salem. It was kind of like William F. Buckley selecting Rich Lowry as his successor and Reagan selecting George H.W. Bush as his VP candidate.

bw222 on April 12, 2014 at 12:52 PM

:-) Is Salem buying off, I mean up the Conservative sites? HA, now Twitchy, Red State and I think another one. Anyone that fund raises for McConnell isn’t looking out for the Conservative cause and that’s why I don’t approve of Salem or the sites they are buying up. A Conservative Organization would buy the left wing sites and change them to Conservative. Something isn’t right at Salem.

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 1:12 PM

UPDATE! BREAKING!! Possible Deal Struck Between Nevada Rancher And Government Officials

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/04/breaking-possible-deal-struck-between-nevada-rancher-and-government-officials/

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 1:23 PM

BLUEFOX…..

I agree with you. I did not like the expansion of medicaid. Its going to come back and hurt the states that expanded it! I did not like the debt put on the Turnpike as well. A lot of people think it will be a hidden tax increase on the people of northern Ohio. However, being from Toledo/Lucas County, they elect nothing but frigging idiots. Same with Cleveland. So they deserve it.

But we need Kasich to win, he wins, he looks for a run at the WH. We need another establishment to run to take out Christie and Jeb.

anchorman on April 12, 2014 at 1:26 PM

WHERE’S THE STORY ABT DINGY, DIRTY, VILE LYING HAIRY REID & THAT HE IS RISKING PEOPLE’S LIVES IN NEVADA?

Bambi on April 12, 2014 at 10:14 AM

Fox isn’t even covering it.

crankyoldlady on April 12, 2014 at 2:14 PM

The Affordable Care Act.

If only the 1940s Nazi party had the same people to help name their laws and regulations. The ‘final solution’ plan to exterminate the Jews would have been named ‘The Jewish Citizens Protection and Care Act’.

Mao had a better knack for naming things, though still not as good as the ACA. He chose ‘Cultural Revolution’ over ‘Sending Intellectuals to Work on Farms so the Farms will Fail and Millions will Starve Plan’.

Stalin was too literal with ‘Purges’. He should have said something like ‘Soviet Society and Military Individual Improvement and Realignment Initiative’. That way when hundreds of thousands of Soviet comrades were being slaughtered by the Nazis due to incompetent and inexperienced generals who replace the Purged ones, he could have said “Well it would have been much worse if we had not implemented ‘SSMIIRI’”.

s1im on April 12, 2014 at 2:15 PM

I did not like the debt put on the Turnpike as well. A lot of people think it will be a hidden tax increase on the people of northern Ohio. However, being from Toledo/Lucas County, they elect nothing but frigging idiots. Same with Cleveland. So they deserve it.

But we need Kasich to win, he wins, he looks for a run at the WH. We need another establishment to run to take out Christie and Jeb.

anchorman on April 12, 2014 at 1:26 PM

I forgot about the Turnpike, LOL I agree with your opinion about Lucas/Toledo and even some of the other Counties up North. Cuyahoga? LOL

Kasich did fine most of his first term, then he got greedy. I don’t think any one person can fix the state of the Country. Those that are able and want to, don’t have the power. Those that have the power don’t want to, they love their seats above all.

bluefox on April 12, 2014 at 2:16 PM

That Ramirez cartoon is real art. I’m impressed with the ocean and sky, and then the boat is amazing. It’s almost a shame to smack the balloon saying onto it.

bour3 on April 13, 2014 at 11:16 AM