RAND study: By our estimate, 3.9 million people signed up for ObamaCare, not 7.1 million like the White House says

posted at 8:41 pm on April 8, 2014 by Allahpundit

A caveat right off the bat: RAND’s estimate only runs through March 28 whereas the actual deadline for signing up was March 31st. Given the crush of traffic on Healthcare.gov in late March, many more people could have signed up over those last three days than were captured by these numbers. On the other hand, the White House was claiming six million sign-ups as of March 27. There’s no way to reconcile that with RAND’s data.

One of them is wrong. Maybe both, in fact.

ra

There’s a big spike in Medicaid, just as everyone expected. There’s a less big but still seven-digit drop in coverage on the individual market, as people discovered that if you like your plan, you might not be able to keep it. There’s not quite four million sign-ups on the new ObamaCare exchanges, not seven million and change like Obama insisted in the Rose Garden. And then there’s that eye-popping “ESI” category. That’s “employer-sponsored insurance,” the sort of coverage that 100 million people already have through their jobs. Er, why would eight million people have suddenly gained that type of coverage last year when the U.S. labor force assuredly didn’t expand by eight million? Good question. Says RAND:

Some of these newly insured individuals may have taken up an employer plan as a result of the incentive created by the individual mandate; others may have newly found a job. The U.S. unemployment rate fell slightly between September 2013 and March 2014, so part of the increase in ESI enrollment could have been due to economic recovery rather than the ACA. While the 8.2-million-person increase seems large, more than 100 million 18- to 64-year-olds were covered by ESI in 2013. Since ESI is the dominant source of insurance coverage among this age group, it is not surprising that we could see relatively large effects of the individual mandate and economic recovery in this category.

Yeah, but 8.2 million people? That seems implausibly high, and not just to me. Maybe there’s a giant class of young adults out there who are employed but who have been declining coverage through work because they didn’t want to take a hit on their paycheck. Once the mandate went into effect in October, they decided that they had no choice and set about trying to decide if their work plan or a new exchange plan would be better. Surprise: The work plan’s better. Or cheaper, at least.

One other tidbit via health-care wonk Adrianna McIntyre:

Another way to look at that is that, of the five ways that uninsured people could have changed their status this year, the ObamaCare exchanges ranked fourth. ESI and Medicaid both drew more uninsured than the exchanges did; the mandate, quite naturally, is driving most of the uninsured into less expensive options. In fact, per that table, there are actually more people who had insurance through work last year and now have no insurance at all (2.1 million) than there are people who had no insurance last year and now have it through the exchanges (1.4 million). Something to watch going forward.


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I see RAND forgot to carry The One.

Flange on April 8, 2014 at 8:43 PM

Well, we all know Obama would never lie.

bw222 on April 8, 2014 at 8:44 PM

One of them is wrong. Maybe both, in fact.

Go with both.

Rand is wrong, obama is lying.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 8:49 PM

So basically half of the ones that got cancellation notices..

Thanks…Dems..

Electrongod on April 8, 2014 at 8:50 PM

Data=Racist Liar

Bmore on April 8, 2014 at 8:50 PM

Rand Corporation is racist.

The while freakin’ corporation!

Lance Corvette on April 8, 2014 at 8:52 PM

Wait, would Dear Liar actually lie?

rbj on April 8, 2014 at 8:53 PM

Is anyone surprised by this? Here, I’ll raise my hand. I’m surprised it’s as high as 3.9.

chris0christies0donut on April 8, 2014 at 8:53 PM

But here’s what matters. Obama and his thugs were allowed to lie about the numbers for the past 2 weeks. Low information voters just won’t catch onto this.

chris0christies0donut on April 8, 2014 at 8:55 PM

So, these are sign-ups only, not confirmation of coverage?

lineholder on April 8, 2014 at 8:55 PM

I see RAND forgot to carry The One.

Flange on April 8, 2014 at 8:43 PM

We have a winner. Might as well just shut it down.

platypus on April 8, 2014 at 8:56 PM

Megan McCartel was just on With Hugh Hewitt and she said that when you factor in how many of these sign ups are actually just due to normal healthcare changes or kids coming off their parents insurance to buy their own then take away all the new moochers getting on Medicaid the REAL number of newly insured is actually only 500,000. That’s FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND.

sounds about right.

jawkneemusic on April 8, 2014 at 8:57 PM

…so how long before they try to put Rand out of business?

KOOLAID2 on April 8, 2014 at 8:58 PM

I see RAND forgot to carry The One.

Flange on April 8, 2014 at 8:43 PM

Well done, and fast too.

V7_Sport on April 8, 2014 at 8:59 PM

If you like our bullshit estimates you can keep our bullshit estimates.

fogw on April 8, 2014 at 9:01 PM

I see RAND forgot to carry The One.

Flange on April 8, 2014 at 8:43 PM

That is old math..

The new Obama math is….

Carry whatever Obama dishes out….

Electrongod on April 8, 2014 at 9:01 PM

The Rand corporation…
In conjunction of the Saucer-People…
Under the direction of the reverse vampires…
Have plotted with our parents to eliminate the meal of dinner!

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:02 PM

Yeah, and if the administration is ever, ever to be believed, they somehow experienced a huge surge in online enrollment when the site was down for maintenance.

John the Libertarian on April 8, 2014 at 9:04 PM

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. Preznit Zero’s tag line.

tru2tx on April 8, 2014 at 9:06 PM

The Rand corporation…
In conjunction of the Saucer-People…
Under the direction of the reverse vampires…
Have plotted with our parents to eliminate the meal of dinner!

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:02 PM

I wonder how many will get that reference.

dmacleo on April 8, 2014 at 9:07 PM

I wonder how many will get that reference.

dmacleo on April 8, 2014 at 9:07 PM

As with my Star Trek references, you’d be surprised.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:08 PM

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:02 PM

Milhouse, is that you?

Flange on April 8, 2014 at 9:09 PM

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:02 PM

I wonder how many will get that reference.

dmacleo on April 8, 2014 at 9:07 PM

Simpsons or say it ain’t so.
Well then, either that or Shakespeare.

bettycooper on April 8, 2014 at 9:11 PM

bettycooper on April 8, 2014 at 9:11 PM

Dressed up like a million-dollar trooper
Tryin’ hard to look like Betty Cooper
Sooper-dooper

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:16 PM

Interesting numbers that RAND has produced, but I can’t help wonder what PAUL thinks?

Varchild on April 8, 2014 at 9:17 PM

Obama Bin Lyin will never lie ….
What he does is called taquiyya .

burrata on April 8, 2014 at 9:18 PM

The least transparent administration in modern history knows they can say whatever they want no matter how ludicrous, because it will be years before their lies will be uncovered.

Meanwhile, we all know they are lying all the time. Liberals are liars.

Jaibones on April 8, 2014 at 9:21 PM

Estimated 36% of exchange enrollees previously uninsured

Smelly smelly…
There were 45-50 million uninsured in 2008.
36% of 45 ( lower figure ) million is how much ?
Is it
more
or less
than 7.1 million ?
Smelly smelly :O

burrata on April 8, 2014 at 9:23 PM

Well I heard that RAND is run entirely by fat, bald, angry white guys.

8thAirForce on April 8, 2014 at 9:26 PM

OK,Allah, I hope you are working on your JEB! QOTD.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:26 PM

OK,Allah, I hope you are working on your JEB! QOTD.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:26 PM

Jeb didn’t say anything today, so my guess–NO JEB today …yyyaaaayyyy
:O

burrata on April 8, 2014 at 9:30 PM

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:16 PM

Been diving lately?
Was in your area long enough to find out (on an airboat ride dodging cows) that FL was the largest beef exporter of the 50 states. cook?

bettycooper on April 8, 2014 at 9:32 PM

Do you think that Dear Leader lied to the American people……?

d1carter on April 8, 2014 at 9:33 PM

If it’s Erica Stedman for QOTD, I’m Bish for the day .

burrata on April 8, 2014 at 9:34 PM

Was in your area long enough to find out (on an airboat ride dodging cows) that FL was the largest beef exporter of the 50 states. cook?

bettycooper on April 8, 2014 at 9:32 PM

I find that very hard to believe.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:35 PM

Surprise, surprise.

Philly on April 8, 2014 at 9:36 PM

Mmm!Burratas!

(we actually have a commenter here with that screen name)

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:36 PM

OK,Allah, I hope you are working on your JEB! QOTD.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:26 PM

No. Not again.

Jaibones on April 8, 2014 at 9:43 PM

I find that very hard to believe.

Lanceman on April 8, 2014 at 9:35 PM

Tastes like gator?

bettycooper on April 8, 2014 at 9:47 PM

If you like your stats you can keep your stats——-if you like your numbers you can keep your numbers!

Herb on April 8, 2014 at 9:50 PM

RAND study: By our estimate, 3.9 million people signed up for ObamaCare, not 7.1 million like the White House says

RAND didn’t use Chicago Math.

farsighted on April 8, 2014 at 9:54 PM

I see the IRS in the Rand Corporation’s future….

d1carter on April 8, 2014 at 9:54 PM

3.9 Million. Effing shocked. Not.

oldroy on April 8, 2014 at 9:56 PM

Now it’s all shut down: Latest ObamaCare surprise: Most won’t be able to buy health insurance until end of year

slickwillie2001 on April 8, 2014 at 9:56 PM

Now it’s all shut down: Latest ObamaCare surprise: Most won’t be able to buy health insurance until end of year

slickwillie2001 on April 8, 2014 at 9:56 PM

The federal government now dictates that citizens must buy health insurance. It dictates what policies health insurance companies can and what they must cover. And it dictates when people can and cannot buy health insurance.

Plus, our Orwellian federal government tries to tell us this is still a free market and not socialism.

farsighted on April 8, 2014 at 10:06 PM

Plus, our Orwellian federal government tries to tell us this is still a free market and not socialism.

farsighted on April 8, 2014 at 10:06 PM

Pretty much all companies have the same policy on when you can apply. There is a reason for it. To prevent people not applying until they need it to pay for a current condition then dumping it after they have that problem resolved only to later need it again…

astonerii on April 8, 2014 at 10:15 PM

Btw. March 28 and March 31, Sebeliue/Nurse Ratched had them enter bogus Medicare applications, without the knowledge of the actual Medicare card holders. Then they received notices “to finish the process”, which they’d never started.

This is the big, not yet fully reported, fraud.

Schadenfreude on April 8, 2014 at 10:16 PM

Pigs in the Congress

It’s difficult to imagine the Supreme Court creating this kind of chaos over decontextualized sloppy language when the statute read in its entirety is unambiguous. But Congress could moot the legal challenge in a single afternoon. A technical corrections bill would eliminate a real source of anxiety for insurers, providers, consumers, and even politicians from Healthcare.gov states. And the logic against passing such a bill just became much weaker.

It’s easy to see how the slow roll of these minor changes might snowball into something larger and more undisguised over time. Meaningful amendments that don’t need to be sneaked past conservatives using procedural chicanery.

But conservative hardliners aren’t ready to give up the ghost just yet.

Schadenfreude on April 8, 2014 at 10:29 PM

Why is the LA Times saying this?:

The long-awaited Rand Corp. study of Obamacare’s effect on health insurance coverage was released Tuesday and confirmed the numbers that had been telegraphed for more than a week: At least 9.3 million more Americans have health insurance now than in September 2013, virtually all of them as a result of the law.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-rand-20140408,0,6208659.column#ixzz2yM6XdNXx

BKeyser on April 8, 2014 at 11:18 PM

Well I guess Rand better watch their step. I see an IRS audit coming their way

jaywemm on April 8, 2014 at 11:39 PM

I have a possible explanation for the large increase in employer based coverage. ACA (ObamaCare) allowed parents to add their 18-26 “children” to their health coverage.

The estimated impact of this was 3.5-7.8 million more people on the employer’s plan. That would explain the big jump in employer provided care even as employers only added 1 million jobs in last year.

quill67 on April 8, 2014 at 11:51 PM

I wonder if he will read this in the paper?

Sven on April 9, 2014 at 12:06 AM

I wonder if he will read this in the paper?

Sven on April 9, 2014 at 12:06 AM

I seriously doubt that he reads newspapers.

slickwillie2001 on April 9, 2014 at 12:41 AM

The “.1″ is a dead giveaway of a fraudulent number. Period.

ProfShadow on April 9, 2014 at 6:14 AM

You should go over to HuffPo. The person who summarized the article for them read it as 9.3 million more people will be signed up for the ACA, while totally glossing over the fact that only 1.4 million previously uninsured people signed up. They are celebrating this report as great news.

someguyinnc on April 9, 2014 at 7:35 AM

BKeyser on April 8, 2014 at 11:18 PM

because it sounds better then the truth. This way is seems that the ACA is working.

someguyinnc on April 9, 2014 at 7:37 AM

I wonder how many will get that reference.

dmacleo on April 8, 2014 at 9:07 PM

We are through the looking glass people…

Oil Can on April 9, 2014 at 7:58 AM

MSM summary headline: “Huzzah!”

These SOBs are way overdue for an involuntary attitude adjustment.

Ray Van Dune on April 9, 2014 at 8:43 AM

I have a theory in the case of the eight million folks newly on employer-sponsored insurance.

I have three kids, all of whom dropped off my insurance some time ago, but are still under 26. Because of the mandate, I offered to put them on my employer-sponsored insurance last open enrollment so that they wouldn’t get penalized. They are early in their working lives and health insurance isn’t a priority for them, but they don’t want to get penalized. Not sure how many of those eight million fall in that bucket, but I’m betting it isn’t insignificant.

Probably a larger contingent are those who have insurance available from their employer but previously declined to purchase it.

Immolate on April 9, 2014 at 9:38 AM

Plus, our Orwellian federal government tries to tell us this is still a free market and not socialism.

farsighted on April 8, 2014 at 10:06 PM

Then the progressive fascists will blame the free market for failure.

If you think that government problems are bad wait until you see government solutions.

jukin3 on April 9, 2014 at 10:10 AM

So that 7.1 million is a bogus number? You don’t say.

magicbeans on April 9, 2014 at 10:46 AM

I’m of the opinion that about 95-98% of the mainstream media ought to be taken out and flogged. For them to repeat these made-up numbers–knowing full well that they’re made-up–is despicable and reprehensible.

For the love of Mike, what has become of our once great country??

Bob Davis on April 9, 2014 at 3:42 PM