Brutal: Democratic poll finds Obama’s base is ready to stay home in November

posted at 6:41 pm on April 8, 2014 by Allahpundit

The poll was conducted between March 19 and 23, a week before the White House declared “mission accomplished” on ObamaCare, so maybe it’s simply missing a recent surge in enthusiasm among lefties. The first rule of ACA polling, though, is that the numbers rarely move much no matter what’s going on with the law. They dipped after the Healthcare.gov Chernobyl in October, they bounced back a bit as sign-ups improved, but overall they’ve been steady at around -10 or -12 for years now. Hard to believe that an enrollment milestone will shift that trend markedly and durably, especially with premiums set to rise this fall.

And if it doesn’t, they’re in trouble. Here’s the split right now among likely voters within the “Rising American Electorate,” a.k.a. the Obama coalition of young adults, minorities, and single women, when they’re asked if they’d be more likely to support a Democratic candidate for Congress or a Republican one:

rae

A huge blue advantage — although, as Greg Sargent points out, it’s not as huge as it used to be. In 2012, Democrats won this group 67/32. Meanwhile, though, among the total electorate of likely voters, the Democratic advantage is just 44/43. How can a giant lead among the “RAE” translate into a statistically insignificant single-point lead overall? This is how:

14

“Non-RAE,” i.e. Republican, voters are far more likely to turn out than O’s base is. To see this slightly differently, compare likely voters overall to the split among “drop-off voters,” people who voted in 2012 but are disinclined to vote in the midterms:

dropff

The enthusiasm to turn out this year just isn’t there, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s standard sixth-year presidential fatigue, maybe it’s discontent with the “progress” achieved in O’s second term (especially progress on the economy and unemployment), maybe it’s something else. The pollster, Stan Greenberg, devotes the rest of his memo to showing how the “RAE” numbers would improve if Democrats ran this summer on pocketbook issues aimed at that group — a minimum wage hike, more child-care leave for working moms, etc, which helps explain why O talking about pay equity for women is the soundbite du jour. Not even Greenberg, though, claims that the right message would stop the GOP from making gains in the Senate. This is about triage, not about fully reversing an unfavorable tide.

Which brings me to a question for political junkies: When was the last time one party or the other was able to steer a midterm campaign around to its preferred agenda in a way that materially affected the outcome on election day without obvious help from major intervening events? What I mean is this. During my adult life, the midterm election results have always been most obviously understood as a reaction to the president or to some momentous political development. The big red wave of ’94 was a reaction to total Democratic control of government, which produced HillaryCare; 1998 was a reaction to impeachment overreach; 2002 was a reaction to 9/11; 2006 was a reaction to Iraq; and the big red wave of 2010 was, once again, a reaction to total Democratic control of government, which produced ObamaCare. Those are simplifications, certainly, but the banner-headline items during each period surely did heavily influence voter preferences. When was the last midterm, though, when — and I realize this is a judgment call to some extent — one party was able to elevate its core agenda items (like the minimum wage) above the din of major events and slow a heavy tide in favor of the other party? Has that ever happened? I realize Democrats need some sort of message for the fall and you can always do worse than economic populism, but what’s the precedent for thinking it might work? The GOP plays the ObamaCare card and Democrats play the “more paid leave for working mothers” card and the GOP ends up with only two Senate seats instead of, say, eight? Or is the point here simply to hold the GOP to six pick-ups instead of seven so that Democrats retain control of the Senate?


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Good .

Lucano on April 8, 2014 at 6:47 PM

Or is the point here simply to hold the GOP to six pick-ups instead of seven so that Democrats retain control of the Senate?

Uh, the GOP still takes the senate with six. It loses with just 5.

Stoic Patriot on April 8, 2014 at 6:47 PM

What Home?

portlandon on April 8, 2014 at 6:50 PM

Brutal: davidk poll finds davidk house is ready to stay home if the GOP runs a RINO.

davidk on April 8, 2014 at 6:51 PM

Remember for this year and ’16: we don’t have to convert youths and minorities into voting R for right now. It is enough that they just don’t make any special effort to show up at the polls. We use their apathy, get Rs elected, and the success that will make all of their lives better will argue for their votes 2018 onwards.

Sekhmet on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

Hey, obama has given his base (low-life freeloaders) “FREE” healthcare, “FREE” abortions, “FREE” birth control, “FREE” dope, “FREE” obamaphones, “FREE” food, “FREE” housing, “FREE” internet, “FREE” whatever; Why should they bother voting when they already have everything they need?

Pork-Chop on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

First we must push Reid into retirement. Then we focus on the White House.

John the Libertarian on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

2006 was a reaction to Iraq

2006 was a reaction to the Death of Journalism (the age of the radical activist) and Bush creating the Era of RINO Surrenderism.

faraway on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

The poll was conducted between March 19 and 23, a week before the White House declared “mission accomplished” on ObamaCare, so maybe it’s simply missing a recent surge in enthusiasm among lefties.

That Allahpundit is such a hoot.

davidk on April 8, 2014 at 6:54 PM

the base will stay home but still get to vote

RonK on April 8, 2014 at 6:55 PM

When was the last midterm, though, when — and I realize this is a judgment call to some extent — one party was able to elevate its core agenda items (like the minimum wage) above the din of major events and slow a heavy tide in favor of the other party? Has that ever happened?

Ask Sean Trende or Jay Cost. They’ll pull 1870 or something out of their ass.

Mark1971 on April 8, 2014 at 6:57 PM

I realize this is a judgment call to some extent — one party was able to elevate its core agenda items (like the minimum wage) above the din of major events and slow a heavy tide in favor of the other party

There are more unemployed and underemployed that are being affected by the Obama economy than there are those that will gain by a hike in the minimum wage. Further, even though polls show wide support for a hike across the political spectrum (65%+), when people are told that a rise in the minimum wage will costs jobs, support falls into the 30s.

IMHO, the minimum wage hike is the new ‘school uniforms and midnight basketball.’ It’s not a big enough issue to motivate the Democratic base, especially when there is the big, fat, ugly, and enormously unpopular Obamacare elephant sitting in the room. In a way, Obamacare IS ‘the big event.’

Resist We Much on April 8, 2014 at 6:59 PM

Hey they can stay home and yet vote multiple times at multiple locations, even if they are dead.
You donnonutin about DumboCraps !

burrata on April 8, 2014 at 7:00 PM

First we must push Reid into retirement. Then we focus on the White House.

John the Libertarian on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

Primary McConnell first.

Myron Falwell on April 8, 2014 at 7:09 PM

Only Boehner, Cantor and Ryan can save Democrats in the midterms.

Wigglesworth on April 8, 2014 at 7:11 PM

Fact is, the very *BEST* tag-line they could possibly hope for is:

“Vote Democrat, 2014!. Because we’re TOTALLY not as supremely f*cking evil as we appear!”

Dems have literally less than nothing to brag about. The United States is in the tank in every measurable way; The Economy sucks, Unemployment is ridiculously underreported in the 6.7% range (actually and accurately at LEAST 10 points higher than that), the rest of the world has watched muslim criminals murder one of our Ambassadors, while Vlad Putin *WALKED* into the Crimea, and soon, the Ukraine; Syria used chemical weapons across obama’s farcical “red line”, on it’s own people, and then laughed in our collective face about it. Our attorney general lies his ass off to our elected representatives about…well..everything, and Obamacare has turned the once greatest healthcare system on the planet into a semblance of the Cuban system that ignorantly let Hugo Chavez die painfully of cancer. (Well played there, Cuban Docs! nothing but silver lining on that one!)

Dems have been at the helm the whole time, and this is the absolutely most pathetic administration in this Country’s history.

Why would anyone in their right mind vote Democrat?

They wouldn’t. Liberalism is a mental disorder.

a5minmajor on April 8, 2014 at 7:11 PM

Brutal: Democratic poll finds Obama’s base is ready to stay home in November

“mission accomplished”

Electrongod on April 8, 2014 at 7:15 PM

“What difference at this point does it make?”–HRC

bimmcorp on April 8, 2014 at 7:19 PM

Am I the only one around here that doesn’t give a crap about the GOP taking the senate?

As long as McConnell, Cornyn, Graham, McCain, etc. are around, what good is that going to do us?

Nothing will improve. Have we lost liberty or gained liberty since the GOP took the House in 2010? Lost plenty. Tax increases, debt ceiling increases, budgets with spending increases, have all been pushed over the finish line by Republicans since then.

tcufrog on April 8, 2014 at 7:20 PM

the base will stay home but still get to vote

RonK on April 8, 2014 at 6:55 PM

Exactly. The party activists will come to them with ballots. And treats.

kcewa on April 8, 2014 at 7:27 PM

tcufrog on April 8, 2014 at 7:20 PM

Dont give up the fight. McConnell is a squish but he will at least hold votes on House bills and put them on Obama’s desk so that HE takes the heat as the obstructionist.

John the Libertarian on April 8, 2014 at 7:41 PM

I wish the SOB’s would have stayed home in 2012.Will the GOP screw this 2014 pooch,they probably will again.

jeffinsjvca on April 8, 2014 at 7:46 PM

Brutal: Democratic poll finds Obama’s base is ready to stay home in November

…not to worry…someone else will vote for them…numerous times!
…no one will check or do anything about it!

KOOLAID2 on April 8, 2014 at 7:47 PM

can we please discount the Left’s propaganda? Their goal is, as always and forever, to scare the c*** out of the ignorant people that they call their base.

This is a too punch strategy…oh, we’re losing to the racist, white dudes that will take you money away.

Two…the womyns make 77 percent of the wages of men, and abortion will be taken away if the evil doers get power!

Mara Liasson was practically giddy with the wage stuff…sure she knows it is BS..but hey, my guys can win with this. Leftists have no morals whatsoever…lies are fine if they can win using them.

perfectly fine.

the business about the RINOS taking over the senate is just BS. The left loves to humiliate the RINOs…so gin up some stuff to get the RINOS to talkin up a possible win and BOOM…they’ll be lucky to get back up to 47

r keller on April 8, 2014 at 8:14 PM

This kind of reminds me of Bill Clinton’s testimony.

tomas on April 8, 2014 at 8:24 PM

2006 was a reaction to the Death of Journalism (the age of the radical activist) and Bush creating the Era of RINO Surrenderism.

faraway on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

Really?? REALLY??

De Nile is might deep here. Perhaps you should head downstream before trying to cross…

JohnGalt23 on April 8, 2014 at 8:32 PM

Or is the point here simply to hold the GOP to six pick-ups instead of seven so that Democrats retain control of the Senate?

Uh, the GOP still takes the senate with six. It loses with just 5.

Stoic Patriot on April 8, 2014 at 6:47 PM

So it wasn’t just my arithmetic…

JohnGalt23 on April 8, 2014 at 8:33 PM

It does not matter how many Democrats turn out to vote. What matters is how many Democrats are involved in the counting and certification of the votes.

Subotai Bahadur on April 8, 2014 at 8:36 PM

Stay at home voters!

astonerii on April 8, 2014 at 9:10 PM

The vote fraud in close elections this November is going to be epic!

tngmv on April 8, 2014 at 9:10 PM

The vote fraud in close elections this November is going to be epic!

tngmv on April 8, 2014 at 9:10 PM

Hello, are you going to be voting in this midterm election?

NO

Thank you. (click) Alright, we can vote in place of John!

deet deet doo deet….

Hello, are you going to be voting in this midterm election?


..
.

astonerii on April 8, 2014 at 9:12 PM

The dead ready to rise from the grave and take over the world.

Grunt on April 8, 2014 at 9:20 PM

Grabbing the senate is HUGE for the GOP. Reid wouldn’t be pulling the desperation moves if it didn’t matter.

1. A GOP-controlled house and senate can attach a repeal of the risk corridor (ins bailout) to a debt ceiling increase. Obama cannot veto this. Without the risk corridor funding, obamacare collapses. And the public hates the bailout.

2. A GOP senate will slow or kill most of obama’s judicial appointments.

3. A GOP senate can force Obama to veto all types of legislation and put Hillary Ina lose-lose position.

4. A GOP senate will control the levers of investigations against Hillary’s state dept and much more.

Don’t give me this nonsense that the senate doesn’t matter. Just watch the RAT desperation.

matthew8787 on April 8, 2014 at 9:49 PM

AP, per exit question, three examples:

In 1982, at the height of the recession caused by carter in Reagan first term, the GOP minimized house losses to about 26 seats but kept control of the senate. This was a major victory and allowed Reagan to stay th course and the economy took off.

In 1978, notwithstanding increasing inflation and higher unemployment under carter, the dems were able to minimize losses in both chambers, maintaining control in both, when the GOP should have performed better. The reason: the GOP allowed dems to portray themselves as tight-fisted conservatives and completely fool the electorate

In 1970, nixon’s first midterm, he was able to rally the nation behind his law and order and Vietnam war policies notwithstanding a weakening economy. The GOP lost only 9 house seats and actually gain 2 senat seats, a strong showing (although the GOP got hammered in statehouse races).

Important common denominator: all were the first midterm election, not the 6 year itch waves of 66, 74, 86, 06

matthew8787 on April 8, 2014 at 9:59 PM

matthew8787 on April 8, 2014 at 9:49 PM

1) Obama can and will and force them to give a clean bill, and maybe even force them to add goodies to the mixture to get him to sign it. Like what happened last time. Republicans have no spine and the only reason they shut the government down was because they were trying to damage the Tea Party.
2) No, they will not. We have plenty of roll over rejects to let them go through.
3) Can and will are two different things. I doubt that they will get past the three or four die hard progressives in the party to pass squat unless it is acceptable to the Democrats, and acceptable to them is unacceptable to us.
4) The Senate is not the investigative branch, that is the house of representatives. They are the judicial and punitive branch. But even so, anything less than having 64 or 65 senate seats will mean nothing as they will never convict without that many.

Does the Senate matter? sure it does. Does it help? Debatable. Once they have both the House and the Senate they will feel obligated to accomplish things, and not just get a stack of vetoes. It might just end up being destructive to our cause. Active government is mostly bad government.

astonerii on April 8, 2014 at 10:01 PM

Who’s home?

Schadenfreude on April 8, 2014 at 10:20 PM

Never underestimate the moocher Dem base’s protection of their government cheese. If these takers think for one minute that their food stamps and semi permanent unemployment benefits are in danger they will haul their fat azzes out to vote.

neyney on April 8, 2014 at 10:58 PM

1994 had little or nothing to do with HillaryCare, the Clinton tax hike, Democratic domination of government, or even the Contract with America.

The polls changed very late in the fall that year, and primarily in a reaction to the House Banking scandal, which snared mostly Democrats kiting checks. They weren’t taken down by a change in political attitude, as evidenced by Clinton’s easy reelection and our difficulties in holding the Senate since, but by their own corruption.

Today’s media would likely have killed that story.

Adjoran on April 8, 2014 at 11:26 PM

Does the Senate matter? sure it does. Does it help? Debatable. Once they have both the House and the Senate they will feel obligated to accomplish things, and not just get a stack of vetoes. It might just end up being destructive to our cause. Active government is mostly bad government.

astonerii on April 8, 2014 at 10:01 PM

You are confusing the shutdown with a debt ceiling fight. The GOP, instigated by Cruz, pushed the wrong button. The GOP wins when they fight over the debt ceiling, not appropriations.

Attach the risk corridor sunset to a debt ceiling and watch the insurers flee Obamacare. It can be destroyed in one fell swoop.

As to judicial appointments, the GOP will absolutely delay or kill many pending nominees to the district and appellate bench. You are totally mistaken on this. The rate of confirmations, let alone hearings, will slow dramatically to a trickle.

You are also mistaken about Senate investigations. With a GOP House and Senate, select committees can be set up to investigate the NSA, Benghazi, the IRS scandal, and more.

If you think control of the Senate doesn’t matter, then just watch the desperation of the RATS to hold onto power. Because they control the Senate, they know they are covering up the most corrupt administration in history.

With the Senate in GOP hands, Obama’s last two years can be made a Living Hell for him, and for Hillary too.

matthew8787 on April 9, 2014 at 9:07 AM

Remember for this year and ’16: we don’t have to convert youths and minorities into voting R for right now. It is enough that they just don’t make any special effort to show up at the polls. We use their apathy, get Rs elected, and the success that will make all of their lives better will argue for their votes 2018 onwards.

Sekhmet on April 8, 2014 at 6:53 PM

Republicans can probably win the Senate in 2014 by focusing on the disaster of Obamacare, but there needs to be a positive message for “minority” voters in 2016. This effort can be started now by Republican Senate candidates campaigning on school vouchers (similar to the policy enacted in Louisiana by Gov. Bobby Jindal) to help poor parents send their children to better schools. If such a program passes Congress in 2015, either it helps many children of “minority” voters, or it’s vetoed by Obama, in which case minority voters wonder why a black President doesn’t want to help their children get a good education.

Steve Z on April 9, 2014 at 10:38 AM

Democratic poll finds Obama’s base is ready to stay home in November

Not that it matters: those Dems who do show up will vote five or six times, their dogs and cats have a vote, and the dead will likely show up in record numbers.

zoyclem on April 9, 2014 at 11:35 AM