AP poll gives GOP slight edge in midterms

posted at 10:01 am on April 7, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Surprised that this is news? Don’t be. Despite all of the talk about Republican advantages in the upcoming midterm elections, we have so far not seen much evidence for it — except, perhaps, Democratic desperation over ObamaCare. The Real Clear Politics poll average actually has Democrats edging Republicans by 1.6 points in March, with eight polls either breaking even or giving Democrats a margin-of-error lead.

So yes, a Republican edge here actually is news:

The latest Associated Press-GfK poll holds bad news for President Barack Obama, but as the November elections draw closer, there are ominous signs for congressional Democrats as well. …

Preferences for control of Congress are tight, but Republicans have gained on Democrats since January. Thirty-six percent in last month’s poll said they would rather see the Democrats in charge of Congress and 37 percent chose Republicans.

Democrats held a narrow advantage on that question in January, when 39 percent favored the Democrats and 32 percent the Republicans. …

The shift stems largely from a change among those most interested in politics.

In the new poll, registered voters who are most strongly interested in politics favored the Republicans by 14 percentage points, 51 percent to 37 percent. In January, this group was about evenly split, with 42 percent preferring Democrats and 45 percent the Republicans.

The trust questions are probably a bigger problem than Democrats would like to think. Republicans are up four on the economy, 28/24, and surprisingly lead on immigration now, 26/25. Democrats led on immigration in December, 27/23. On the other hand, Democrats lead on managing the federal government by 24/22, education by 25/18, same-sex marriage by almost double at 31/17, and abortion at 30/22. Republicans hold more traditional leads in federal budgets (27/22) and national security (34/16).

In other words, the GOP had better not be ordering the drapes for the Senate Majority Leader’s office just yet. They are in good position in terms of the specific races, but they need a national wave to cement their status — and it’s not yet here.

The 2016 race doesn’t get a great deal of attention, just a rundown of favorability on the most likely names we’ll see in that cycle. To no one’s surprise, Hillary Clinton gets the most favorable reaction at 46%, but also the second-highest unfavorable reaction too at 39%. Joe Biden’s 34/43 beats her in that category, while Chris Christie’s 26/38 comes close. Hillary is the only one on the list not to be underwater, although most of the potential candidates either have pluralities or majorities too unfamiliar with them to choose one way or the other. There isn’t anything in this poll that should discourage anyone from entering … except perhaps Joe Biden, who’s as known as he’s ever going to be.


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Just a smidge.

Akzed on April 7, 2014 at 10:05 AM

The fact that the Democratic Party isn’t on the brink of extinction and the fight remaining is between center-right and libertarian parties speaks to the demise of the nation.

NY, IL and CA could drop into a political and economic sinkhole and they’d reach out of it to pull the lever for another Leftist.

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Illegal immigration an act of love. That’ll get conservatives out in 2016. Not.

Franklin100 on April 7, 2014 at 10:08 AM

Goodbye, America.

Lanceman on April 7, 2014 at 10:08 AM

AP must have some pretty bad numbers for them to make ‘a slight edge’ observation.

GarandFan on April 7, 2014 at 10:12 AM

There isn’t anything in this poll that should discourage anyone from entering … except perhaps Joe Biden, who’s as known as he’s ever going to be.

Who? If the Democrats wanted to commit an act of love their leadership would sit “slow Joe” down for the talk.

Happy Nomad on April 7, 2014 at 10:12 AM

If the Republicans aren’t at least 10 pints ahead in every demo and every subject, we’re toast. Between the ‘pub’s tendency to the circular firing squad and the Dem’s superior use of lies and demagoguery, it’s already too late. Throw in Billary as Prez and you can kiss the Republic goombye…

vnvet on April 7, 2014 at 10:14 AM

With the GOP being little more than Dem Lite, it’s not a surprise that a poll would be close. If the GOP would stand on conservative values, they would run away with it imo.

Mimzey on April 7, 2014 at 10:14 AM

if only there were a clear distinction in the objectives of the party leaders

DanMan on April 7, 2014 at 10:15 AM

The fact that the Democratic Party isn’t on the brink of extinction and the fight remaining is between center-right and libertarian parties speaks to the demise of the nation.

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Could not have said it any better …

ShainS on April 7, 2014 at 10:17 AM

Between the ‘pub’s tendency to the circular firing squad and the Dem’s superior use of lies and demagoguery, it’s already too late. Throw in Billary as Prez and you can kiss the Republic goombye…

vnvet on April 7, 2014 at 10:14 AM

Thats not even counting the piles of crap either made up or marginally true that lies in wait at the NSA, ready to be vomited out at just the right time in the cycle. The tactic is Obamas specialty.

Mimzey on April 7, 2014 at 10:18 AM

if only there were a clear distinction in the objectives of the party leaders

DanMan on April 7, 2014 at 10:15 AM

Heh.

ShainS on April 7, 2014 at 10:18 AM

NY, IL and CA could drop into a political and economic sinkhole and they’d reach out of it to pull the lever for another Leftist.

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Well how could they not pull the lever for another leftist if the GOP is intent of running one? Third party, maybe? But the problem for citizens of those states, like myself, is that the urban areas are too large to overcome and they are easily stolen.

magicbeans on April 7, 2014 at 10:20 AM

If the Republicans aren’t at least 10 pints ahead in every demo and every subject, we’re toast. Between the ‘pub’s tendency to the circular firing squad and the Dem’s superior use of lies and demagoguery, it’s already too late. Throw in Billary as Prez and you can kiss the Republic goombye…

vnvet on April 7, 2014 at 10:14 AM

If we lose or fail to gain seats in November I guaren-dang-tee I’ll be ten pints ahead.

hawkdriver on April 7, 2014 at 10:27 AM

‘Hawk’, I’m already ahead of you by two pints! *hic*

vnvet on April 7, 2014 at 10:29 AM

Republicans are up four on the economy, 28/24, and surprisingly lead on immigration now, 26/25. Democrats led on immigration in December, 27/23. On the other hand, Democrats lead on managing the federal government by 24/22, education by 25/18, same-sex marriage by almost double at 31/17, and abortion at 30/22. Republicans hold more traditional leads in federal budgets (27/22) and national security (34/16).

If I read this right, Democrats lead in all the categories that people care squat about this cycle and Repulicans lead in all the categories that people are keenly interested in this cycle. I think that’s pretty telling.

gengwall on April 7, 2014 at 10:34 AM

‘Hawk’, I’m already ahead of you by two pints! *hic*

vnvet on April 7, 2014 at 10:29 AM

So I guess you’re not talking about blood donation ahead of the impending culture riots?

Happy Nomad on April 7, 2014 at 10:36 AM

A national poll is useless. Who cares what Californians or New Yorkers feel about races in Arkansas and Louisiana.

The mid term races are going to be determined in about 7-8 states. Aggregate those handful state polls and I guarantee you Republicans have more than a “slight edge.”

kevinkristy on April 7, 2014 at 10:41 AM

Well, it’s a thought. When the riots begin, I’ll be mucho pints ahead, will donate blood, but insist that it be given to one of the rioting Marxist Revolutionaries, in the expectation that the result will be the tool tripping and falling under a passing bus…

vnvet on April 7, 2014 at 10:41 AM

In the days when The McLaughlin Group represented one of the few alternative sources of news and opinion (despite the Group being comprised of mainstream media types), I recall their very serious, very scientific breakdown of each Congressional race in the 1994 midterms.

All, including Pat Buchanan, were convinced beyond a shadow of doubt of the outcome of each and that the Democrats would edge it.

8 Senate and 54 House GOP wins later, I resolved to be highly skeptical of experts and polls and predictions.

jangle12 on April 7, 2014 at 10:44 AM

Poll voters only in Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Georgia. These are the only states where a seat can flip. The rest of the races are incumbent cakewalks.

Ask them who they want controlling Congress.

kevinkristy on April 7, 2014 at 10:50 AM

Don’t worry. The Kristolites will find a way to destroy any conservative who offers any hope of opposing this monstrosity of a Government

Brock Robamney on April 7, 2014 at 11:04 AM

Know what else has a slight edge according to the AP?

A samurai sword.

fogw on April 7, 2014 at 11:17 AM

NY, IL and CA could drop into a political and economic sinkhole and they’d reach out of it to pull the lever for another Leftist.

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Well how could they not pull the lever for another leftist if the GOP is intent of running one? Third party, maybe? But the problem for citizens of those states, like myself, is that the urban areas are too large to overcome and they are easily stolen.

magicbeans on April 7, 2014 at 10:20 AM

Romney is no Jefferson, but to suggest that the choice in 2012 was “either/or” the same thing is dangerous. Romney would have been leagues better than O. Too many stayed how and gave up an opportunity to remove Mao from office (and possible a few more Dem Senators).

I supported Newt, but he was crucified for one stupid moment with Pelosi on that sofa. He spoke well and would have mopped the floor with O in the debates. But, alas, he wasn’t 100% pure so he had to go… paving the way for the guy with the most money to get the nod. But, again, Mittens would have been an enormous improvement.

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 11:20 AM

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 11:20 AM

“how” = “home”

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Democrats lead on managing the federal government by 24/22, education by 25/18

Please, somebody help me out here. Managing the federal government – as in the really smooth Zerocare rollout and trillion dollar deficits? Education, as in throwing money at the AFT and NEA, and blocking school choice – standing in the schoolhouse door and forcing minority kids to stay in failing inner city schools? With Big Government calling the shots, our education system continues to deteriorate.

TarheelBen on April 7, 2014 at 11:34 AM

CHECK IT OUT – GOP Now Leads In Seven Senate Races For Dem Seats
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on April 7, 2014

Rook on April 7, 2014 at 11:37 AM

Then bad news for the GOP.
That people are not rioting in the streets against the Democrats shows the strength they have.

All it takes is advertising right before the elections that says, “Republicans will take away your ObamaCare, Social Security, etc, etc, etc, so vote for Democrats” and the Democrats win.

albill on April 7, 2014 at 11:38 AM

Why are you celebrating? We’re running people like you out of the party, after all.

The Republicans are smashing the Teahadis, and the nations loves them for it!

BrianJ on April 7, 2014 at 11:41 AM

The GOP does NOT deserve to win.

Schadenfreude on April 7, 2014 at 11:42 AM

CHECK IT OUT – GOP Now Leads In Seven Senate Races For Dem Seats
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on April 7, 2014

Rook on April 7, 2014 at 11:37 AM

Never quote that DICK.

Schadenfreude on April 7, 2014 at 11:43 AM

Dick Morris has the GOP picking up 435 seats in the House and prolly all the Senate seats open this year.

/

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 12:15 PM

These public polls are all pretty much BS at this point. Look at the 2010 Real Clear Politics average, which showed the Democrats leading as late as July 5th:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

You know how things are actually going by the way the parties are acting, and looking at the over-all environment. Then factor in the fact that skyrocketing insurance premium notices are going to be going out right before the election, and you have another Republican wave.

Texastoast on April 7, 2014 at 12:38 PM

Fear not…the GOP will find a way to screw this up and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They just NEVER learn!

Pelosi Schmelosi on April 7, 2014 at 12:57 PM

CHECK IT OUT – GOP Now Leads In Seven Senate Races For Dem Seats
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on April 7, 2014

Rook on April 7, 2014 at 11:37 AM

…President Romney confirms that!

KOOLAID2 on April 7, 2014 at 1:12 PM

The fact that the Democratic Party isn’t on the brink of extinction and the fight remaining is between center-right and libertarian parties speaks to the demise of the nation.

Honestly, how can you say this with a straight face?

The last time republicans were in charge they took a budget surplus and turned it into a trillion dollar defecit, they took a peaceful foreign policy and turned it into two insanely expensive unwinnable unending wars and had the populace living in fear all day every day, they took a healthy booming economy and turned it into the biggest economic disaster in history.

Meanwhile, in 5yrs under the dems, the USA has recovered from that disaster better than most any other country in the world, has seen unemploymemt plummet, the deficit shrink, and the country continue to pull out of all the military boondoggles they were trapped in before.

Why would any sane person vote for the republicans to come back in?

Because the president has been trying to get poor people health insurance?

Seriously?

everdiso on April 7, 2014 at 1:17 PM

Honestly, how can you say this with a straight face?

The last time republicans were in charge they took a budget surplus and turned it into a trillion dollar defecit, they took a peaceful foreign policy and turned it into two insanely expensive unwinnable unending wars and had the populace living in fear all day every day, they took a healthy booming economy and turned it into the biggest economic disaster in history.

Meanwhile, in 5yrs under the dems, the USA has recovered from that disaster better than most any other country in the world, has seen unemploymemt plummet, the deficit shrink, and the country continue to pull out of all the military boondoggles they were trapped in before.

Why would any sane person vote for the republicans to come back in?

Because the president has been trying to get poor people health insurance?

Seriously?

everdiso on April 7, 2014 at 1:17 PM

Lame talking points aren’t going to save you.

Chuck Schick on April 7, 2014 at 1:42 PM

everdiso on April 7, 2014 at 1:17 PM

What?

The cost of both wars and all the GOP deficits are nothing compared to the first two years of OLeftist. Seven TRILLION in 5 years. Makes Bush look like a chucker.

As for the wars, both were supported by the Democrats, Afghanistan always being “the good war”. Even O supported the war in Afghanistan. Not only did he support it, it increased spending and troops there.

mankai on April 7, 2014 at 2:28 PM

Lame talking points aren’t going to save you.

Chuck Schick on April 7, 2014 at 1:42 PM

Dismissing the basic facts as talking points aren’t going to save you, just like they haven’t saved you the last two times.

everdiso on April 7, 2014 at 2:31 PM

everdiso on April 7, 2014 at 1:17 PM

First of all idiot liberal, the poor have a health coverage, it is called Medicaid… There are almost 50 million people on Medicaid and it is by far the largest welfare program in history of mankind, by welfare I mean that the recipients pay zero money for their benefits unlike social security or medicare…

Second, Obama plunge the country into 7 trillions dollars debt more than any other President in history and he will would have accumulated more debt during his 8 years in the Presidency than all other Presidents combined…

Third, without Obama socialist destructive policies the recovery would not have been as anemic as it is but rather it would have been much stronger…

Fourth, Obamacare has caused terrible suffering more millions of people and will do the same for many more millions if fully implemented… However Obama killed Obamacare by delaying most of it because of the immense political damage it caused him and his communist party… The only thing that will survive from Obamacare is the Medicaid expansion…

Fifth, in term of foreign policy it is a mega disaster as the domestic policy of this most incompetent and weakest President in history of the Republic… Our enemies are emboldened beyond belief, they are mocking us… Our allies do not trust us…

mnjg on April 7, 2014 at 3:04 PM

Dismissing the basic facts as talking points aren’t going to save you, just like they haven’t saved you the last two times.

everdiso on April 7, 2014 at 2:31 PM

I’ve never seen you use a fact.

You’re so bad with them in fact, you don’t seem to know you lost one of the last two elections. Quite badly in fact.

Chuck Schick on April 7, 2014 at 3:08 PM

Of course they’d report a SLIGHT edge for the GOP. That scares liberals to the polls more than saying the GOP has no chance, or it’ll be a GOP wave.

Let the sheep think they can make a difference at this point, then threaten that their benefits will evaporate if the GOP wins and you have a liberal voter, legal, alive, or not.

Diluculo on April 7, 2014 at 5:33 PM

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if 2014 does not turn out to be a Republican wave election.The GOP has done just about everything possible to insult,anger,and disillusion the base that must come out if the Republicans want to take back the Senate.Obamacare is certainly working for the GOP,but that’s just about all.And even if the Republicans take back the Senate nothing will be done about Obamacare anyway.Here in South Carolina I will go to the polls only to vote in the US Senate race-for the Republican if Graham loses the primary,and for his Democrat opponent should Graham win.I have never voted for a Democrat in my life,but Graham aids and abets the Socialist Progessives on major issues so electing what will probably be a blue dog Democrat won’t make too much of a difference,and if it’s one thing I detest it is a lying,treacherous,fraud of a politician like Lefty Lindsey Grahamnsesty!

redware on April 7, 2014 at 7:36 PM