CNN: Jobs report a “disappointment,” still digging out of the hole from recession

posted at 10:01 am on April 4, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Don’t let the graphic on the front page fool you — CNN’s Michaela Pereira and Christine Romans didn’t mean to draw a smiley face on today’s jobs report, either literally or figuratively. They both recognize that the BLS numbers are a “disappointment,” and do a good job of explaining why:

Romans hits the nail on the head with her chart — and with her caveat that it is not adjusted for population growth. “You’ve had people coming into the labor market,” she explains, “you’ve had new immigrants, you’ve had people graduating from college.” Just getting back to the level of 2007 means falling seven years behind in population growth. That’s reflected in the generational lows of the civilian workforce participation rate, and the millions of long-term unemployed still sitting on the sidelines.

CNBC’s Ben White argues that time is running out for Democrats who want to pivot to the economy for their midterm arguments:

On CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday, I asked Pantheon Macroeconomics chief Ian Shepherdson if he thought the number might beat expectations by a significant margin. Shepherdson, who is officially calling for a gain of 250,000, said, “If the number were over 300,000 I would not fall off my chair.”

Such a number would be a huge relief to Democrats. The party is already facing a drag from the health-care law and an unpopular president in their efforts to limit almost certain losses in the House and prevent a GOP takeover of the Senate. Running on a decelerating economy would spell disaster for Democrats.

Even the status quo, modest monthly job gains of around 200,000 with similarly paltry earnings increases, would be fairly bad for the party that controls the White House and Senate.

White expands on the political impact of these stagnation numbers at Politico:

Late last year, major forecasting firms said the economy could shake off its anemic growth rate of the last four years and heat up to a 3 percent pace or more in 2014, which would be the fastest rate since 2005. But the first three months of the year saw one weak number after another from job creation to consumer spending to construction. Was all this bad news just the result of frigid temperatures and heavy snows? Or were all the rosy predictions just a bunch of wishful thinking? The answers to these questions could decide the outcome of the 2014 midterm elections.

“Whether the economy keeps puttering along in this kind of semi-stagnant state that has characterized so much of this recovery or whether we finally break out of it is of the utmost importance to the shaping of the fall campaign,” said Bill Galston of the Brookings Institution. “Many Americans still believe we are in a recession. You can run from that fact, but you cannot hide from it.” …

Meanwhile, household incomes have actually fallen 4.4 percent since the official end of the recession in June 2009. These numbers help explain why even though headlines occasionally refer to “consumer confidence” figures hitting highs since the recession, the numbers are still very depressed.

For instance, 55 percent of Americans, according to Gallup, currently believe the economy is getting worse rather than better. A recent NBC/Wall Street journal poll found that 57 percent of Americans think we are still in a recession even though we have not technically been in one in nearly five years.

One or two good jobs reports won’t change these numbers.

Of course, we’d have to get one or two good jobs reports to even test that hypothesis. We haven’t seen more than a handful since the recovery started in June 2009, which is one reason why wages are falling.  The job market isn’t competitive enough to hold wages in place, let alone increase them.

All of this was true in 2012, and Obama and the Democrats managed to hold serve. This time, Obama won’t be on the top of the ticket driving turnout, though, but he will be the issue in states where those most dissatisfied will shape the turnout model. White may be right that time could already have expired on the Democratic “pivot.”


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

That thing looked like someone tried to put a smiley face on this obamanation.

Lanceman on April 4, 2014 at 10:03 AM

Still digging out of hole Bush created.

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:10 AM

What does this thread have to do with gaydar?

C’mon Ed

Eph on April 4, 2014 at 10:11 AM

. “Many Americans still believe we are in a recession. You can run from that fact, but you cannot hide from it.” …

If it wasn’t for QE Infinity propping up the Stock and Bond market we would literally be in a recession. $85 BILLION a month and still counting for the last three years.

That is one heck of bunch of money pi$$ed away trying to keep Wall Streets head barely above water and make it look like everything is OK.

Johnnyreb on April 4, 2014 at 10:16 AM

Where is the word “unexpectedly”?

itsspideyman on April 4, 2014 at 10:17 AM

And yet Reuters is proud of this? Expect the 192,000 figure to be adjusted–downward (as always)–without any fanfare at a later date. BTW, many of these jobs created are part-time, low-wage jobs. No good news here at all for Americans, folks….

Bob Davis on April 4, 2014 at 10:19 AM

Unexpectedly honest?
For unemployment reporting. Take note AP

dentalque on April 4, 2014 at 10:19 AM

Is “disappointment” the new unexpected?

Akzed on April 4, 2014 at 10:20 AM

Nope. The Damns will just trot out phony jobs numbers like they did the 7.1 million “enrollees” for AcacaCare, and the stupid voters will buy it.

HiJack on April 4, 2014 at 10:20 AM

As long as Food Stamps keep getting printed, ObamaPhones keep calling, unemployment checks being sent out, etc,etc….at least 47% will always vote for the Democrats.

albill on April 4, 2014 at 10:22 AM

Wrong you stupid Jack Hole Walter.
Fannie and Freddie brought on the crash and recession in 2007 and President Bush and Congressional Republicans continuously warned everyone what was coming and lending regs were too loose. The Democrats would not listen and said there was no problem….full steam ahead….lets continue to let people who make 50K a year get a 500K mortgage.
If Democrats understood economics and markets, we would not have had the problems we have 6 years ago……and you know what…..McCain might have been elected!

Privatize It on April 4, 2014 at 10:24 AM

Does anyone with two brain cells left actually believe any the federal government’s numbers? It’s all become meaningless in that they will openly lie to further their ideology and our media will NEVER even hint at questioning them.

Wine_N_Dine on April 4, 2014 at 10:26 AM

They both recognize that the BLS numbers are a “disappointment

I know that the definition of a recession is based on quarters of economic downturn or growth. But how many months of “disappointment” does it take for a declaration that the job picture sucks?

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2014 at 10:27 AM

I was at the Astro’s opener against the Yankees.Sat by a guy from NY.We talked about NY’s policy on fracking and he said it could save the country.

docflash on April 4, 2014 at 10:27 AM

“..while we’re proud of the Affordable Care Act, we now pivot to jobs.” — Nancy Pelosi

… and now we pivot to …

J_Crater on April 4, 2014 at 10:28 AM

I just never realized how bad Bush had left things. Good thing we have “The Won” to straighten Bush’s mess out. //

Oldnuke on April 4, 2014 at 10:30 AM

A recent NBC/Wall Street journal poll found that 57 percent of Americans think we are still in a recession even though we have not technically been in one in nearly five years.

That’s because the public knows the White House and its allies in the press have been fudging unemployment and growth numbers from the beginning. Real unemployment, if one includes those unemployed people who have been dropped from statistical consideration, has been estimated at over 10 percent for years now. I write ‘estimated’ and use the vague ‘over 10 percent’ because it’s hard to find the real numbers. Wonder why.

And then there are the nature of the jobs themselves. Many (most?) new jobs are part-time, largely so that often-struggling companies don’t have to provide full-time benefits. And inflation? Inflation is hidden, but it’s there. A single trip to the grocery store will show you how it’s hidden, when you look at, say, a bag of chips or pasta or whatever and compare the reduced weight of the packaged product to the same product one or two or three years before, and note that the price is greater. And so on.

So yes, Americans believe the Great Recession is still going on because it’s still going on. From a Democratic Party perspective, the only thing for it is to blame Bush, an otherwise laughable political strategy except that it seems to work.

troyriser_gopftw on April 4, 2014 at 10:31 AM

Wrong you stupid Jack Hole Walter.
Fannie and Freddie brought on the crash and recession in 2007 and President Bush and Congressional Republicans continuously warned everyone what was coming and lending regs were too loose. The Democrats would not listen and said there was no problem….full steam ahead….lets continue to let people who make 50K a year get a 500K mortgage.
If Democrats understood economics and markets, we would not have had the problems we have 6 years ago……and you know what…..McCain might have been elected!

Privatize It on April 4, 2014 at 10:24 AM

Bishop asked me to make a fool out of someone this morning. Looks like you applied for the job!!

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:32 AM

THE RECESSION ENDED IN THE MIDDLE OF 2009!

And we are still trying to claw out way out of it?

Thank you Democrats with a some Republicans who like to go along to get along (ya know the pretty much the entire GOP leadership)!

JERKS!

TexasDude on April 4, 2014 at 10:34 AM

Does anyone with two brain cells left actually believe any the federal government’s numbers? It’s all become meaningless in that they will openly lie to further their ideology and our media will NEVER even hint at questioning them.

Wine_N_Dine on April 4, 2014 at 10:26 AM

Until they start reporting the U-6 numbers, I don’t pay attention to the unemployment rates.

U-6 includes “discouraged workers”, “marginally attached workers”, or “loosely attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently and part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment). This is the real rate in Obama’s economy where many Americans would be working if there were jobs to be had. Since there are not they stop looking and get dumped from the U-3 number that the lazy stupid rat-eared bastard touts as proof of economic recovery.

Put another way, I’d love to see a lazy stupid community organizer from Chicago try and find a job in this economy. No marketable skills, no value-added to any employer, not even qualified to be a Wal-mart greeter (you have to like people for that one).

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2014 at 10:34 AM

“..while we’re proud of the Affordable Care Act, we now pivot to jobs.” — Nancy Pelosi

and now we pivot to …

J_Crater on April 4, 2014 at 10:28 AM

I’m guessing the gays or the illegals.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2014 at 10:36 AM

??? What’s a Bishop ???

Walter L. Newton on March 13, 2014 at 8:27 AM

Bishop asked me to make a fool out of someone this morning. Looks like you applied for the job!!

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:32 AM

They grow up so fast.

hawkdriver on April 4, 2014 at 10:38 AM

Still digging out of hole Bush created.

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:10 AM

Since analogies clearly aren’t your thing: digging a hole makes it bigger. Actually, that’s a perfect analogy for the Obama presidency.

Chuck Schick on April 4, 2014 at 10:49 AM

Affirmative Action Man inherited this mess from Bush!!!!! His LGBTQ Winged monkeys just sacked a high tax, 1% so add that number to the pile.

Hening on April 4, 2014 at 10:53 AM

Just how long is CNN going to give this Administration to ‘dig out of the recession’ considering the recession ENDED in June 2009?

Of course, not only will that question not get answered, we’ll also not get any traction from the ethically and morally bankrupt ‘Ministry of Truth’ over this Administration’s efforts to cook the BLS books that have been underway since 2011-12.

Reality isn’t important to the progressive fascists inside the WH – it’s all about the perception. That’s why the focus is on the U-3 and not the U-6. That’s why the decline and non-recovery of the labor participation rate generally isn’t discussed outside of conservative blogs.

Where they are getting frustrated is that despite the lies, the cooked books, the complicity of a bankrupt media, when you talk to most people, the perceptions and reality converge – that this is the weakest, longest, most stagnant non-recovery recovery since the Second World War. And the blame for this rests in one place – on the shoulders of the progressive fascists in the WH and in the Senate.

Athos on April 4, 2014 at 10:56 AM

Looks like another recovery summer speech is just around the corner …..again

roflmmfao

donabernathy on April 4, 2014 at 10:59 AM

I’m sure that by November the unemployment rate will be 1.5% and the economy will be growing at 8%.
Why so optimistic?
Because the chocolate ration was recently increased from 25 to 21 grams a week.

justltl on April 4, 2014 at 11:05 AM

still digging out of to enlargen the hole from of the recession

FIFY

corona79 on April 4, 2014 at 11:18 AM

…one of these days…the bullshit…is going to overflow!

KOOLAID2 on April 4, 2014 at 11:25 AM

Wrong you stupid Jack Hole Walter.
Fannie and Freddie brought on the crash and recession in 2007 and President Bush and Congressional Republicans continuously warned everyone what was coming and lending regs were too loose. The Democrats would not listen and said there was no problem….full steam ahead….lets continue to let people who make 50K a year get a 500K mortgage.
If Democrats understood economics and markets, we would not have had the problems we have 6 years ago……and you know what…..McCain might have been elected!

Privatize It on April 4, 2014 at 10:24 AM

Bishop asked me to make a fool out of someone this morning. Looks like you applied for the job!!

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:32 AM

You did Bishop proud.

Bush was still talking about how we needed to increase minority home ownership right up to the point that the market began its crash.

Bush and Republicans gave up talking about the problems in the housing market in 2003 and changed their tune to talking about the unprecedented highest home ownership EVAH and even highest minority home ownership EVAH and that we still had to improve those minority numbers!

Of course the NINJA loan program was targeted for the minorities. Because they supposedly are unable to work W-2 jobs and too stupid to keep receipts and too selfish to pay taxes on their under the table money.

astonerii on April 4, 2014 at 11:36 AM

How can they say the economy is “healing” when the same governmental interference that caused the recession is still in place, is even worse?

FHA lowered their credit requirement for homes loans again, the Fed is printing money for the rich, Obamacare is taking over the medical industry…what has changed?

PattyJ on April 4, 2014 at 11:38 AM

PattyJ on April 4, 2014 at 11:38 AM

We have a smaller economy to support the increased corruption?

astonerii on April 4, 2014 at 11:43 AM

Wanna bet the G3 rate is below 6% by the end of October?

Jackson on April 4, 2014 at 11:54 AM

Next up from the Dems: “Let’s pivot to jobs! Raising the minimum wage will increase employment! Amnesty will increase the number of people making the minimum wage which will in turn increase employment even more!”

Here is the graphic analysis:

1) $10.10
2) times 20 million undocumented hard workers
3) equals 800 brazillion dollars!!11!!
4) Big Corporations make new jobs because
5)?
6)Democrat House in 2014!!! Hillary/Billary 2016!!!!
7) Utopia

Pless1foEngrish on April 4, 2014 at 12:08 PM

We are rapidly sinking into a depression. At very least we are in a stagnation which will continue as long as we are under the thumb of a marxist government.

crankyoldlady on April 4, 2014 at 12:34 PM

Still digging out of hole Bush created.

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:10 AM

Ok, and every recession from WW2 to this one recovered jobs to the pre-recession number occurred in 18 months, with that idiot Bush in the early 2000′s having the slowest one at 25 months.

And Obama and the Democrats are at 70 months. SEVENTY.

If you take over 3 times the average and over twice the worst performance I’ve seen for digging, maybe digging isn’t a job you should be doing.

At some point your incompetence at doing even an average adequate job has to be part of the equation for “why isn’t the problem resolved yet”.

gekkobear on April 4, 2014 at 2:21 PM

Still digging out of hole Bush created.

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:10 AM

The last time that Republicans controlled the House, Senate, and Presidency (December 2006), unemployment was 4.4% and the employment-population ratio was 63.4%.

The hole wasn’t created by Bush and the Republicans.

The hole was created by the Democrats (including Obama) who have held majority control since January 3, 2007. Democrats have held 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency since January 3, 2007, and Barack Obama has been part of that majority the entire time.

ITguy on April 4, 2014 at 2:27 PM

With welfare benefits increasing, unemployment benefits remaining around for weeks and weeks, with food stamps growing and ever more popular, with disability payments exploding, with free Obamacare and Medicaid for the low information voters, and with free education and housing benefits, nobody in the base of the Democratic party is going anywhere soon. NOBODY.

They love what we have, which is an exploding class of people dependent on the government for just about everything. As long as the money keeps flowing, these people will keep voting for the people who give them that money. You see this all the time in Europe, and it took somebody with the stature and backbone of a Margaret Thatcher to even begin to fight back against it.

Nope, I don’t see anybody leaving the Democratic Party anytime soon. And with more and more people being subsidized by Obamacare and becoming even more dependent on government handouts, the problem is only going to get worse, not better. It would take a major depression to change any attitudes within the Democratic Party, and even then they would simply ask for even more benefits to keep people going.

And you know what? Both parties in Washington would give it to them, because nobody wants to be seen as “mean” or “uncaring” in the eyes of these voters.

Libertyship46 on April 4, 2014 at 2:35 PM

All of this was true in 2012, and Obama and the Democrats managed to hold serve.

What part of the IRS conservative voter oppression policy did you not understand?

Theophile on April 4, 2014 at 3:39 PM

The smiley face of doom and destruction

neyney on April 4, 2014 at 3:55 PM

That smiley face looks just like the “Kilroy was here” from Kelly’s Hero’s, when O’bozo took the gold in his truck and left town.

WryTrvllr on April 4, 2014 at 7:37 PM

Bishop asked me to make a fool out of someone this morning. Looks like you applied for the job!!

Walter L. Newton on April 4, 2014 at 10:32 AM

Yeah, but golden handcuffs.

WryTrvllr on April 4, 2014 at 7:39 PM