ADP employment report estimates 191,000 jobs added in March

posted at 9:21 am on April 2, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Did the slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2013 impact hiring in the first quarter of 2014? The first two jobs reports of the year certainly support that conclusion, but the latest ADP estimate of job creation suggests that the job freeze may have thawed — a bit. ADP estimates that the private sector added 191,000 jobs to the US economy in March:

 Private sector employment increased by 191,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®.  Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. …

Goods-producing employment rose by 28,000 jobs in March, slightly faster than an upwardly revised pace of 25,000 in February. Most of the gains came from the construction industry which added 20,000 jobs over the month; compared to an average of 16,000 during the prior three months. Manufacturers added 5,000 jobs in March, the same as February.

Service-providing employment rose by 164,000 jobs in March, up from the upwardly revised 153,000 in February. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to growth in service-providing industries, adding 53,000 jobs, slightly more than the 49,000 in February. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 36,000, about equal to the 37,000 jobs added in February. The 5,000 new jobs in financial activities mark the strongest pace of growth in the industry since November 2013.

“The 191,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in March is slightly above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.  “Hopefully, this could be a sign there is more growth to come.”

ADP originally undershot the February report, estimating 139,000 when the BLS found 175,000 jobs added to the economy. Usually, though, ADP overshoots the eventual BLS figure, as they did in January’s original projection of 175K while the BLS found only 119K. ADP is not a solidly reliable indicator, but does tend to set the expectations for the upcoming jobs report, due on Friday.

Reuters likes what it hears:

U.S. companies picked up the pace of hiring in March, signaling the dampening effects of harsh winter weather on job growth may be fading, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Domestic private employers added 191,000 workers in March, slightly below economists’ expectations, while gains in the prior month were revised higher, the ADP National Employment Report showed.

“It was a nice spring rebound and we had an upward revision for February,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist with BNP Paribas in New York.

CNN Money says not so fast, almost literally:

The job market is slowly perking up after a winter lull.

Private sector employers added 191,000 jobs in March, according to payroll processing firm ADP (ADPFortune 500). While it was the strongest job growth in three months, it’s not much to write home about.

After a slowdown in hiring, job growth is merely back to where it was prior to the winter. …

The report was slightly disappointing to other economists, who had anticipated an even bigger bounce back after the weak winter. Those surveyed by Briefing.com expected the report to show companies added 215,000 jobs in March.

Even 215,000 would not be cause for breaking open the bubbly. These are stagnation numbers, not any indication of explosive growth. The US economy needs to add 150,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth at current workforce-participation levels (which are at generational lows anyway). Adding 191,000 barely puts a dent in the unemployment crisis, and it’s doubtful that the final BLS number will be even that high.

For the last five years, the media has calculated their reaction to these numbers by comparing it to their low expectations. No one’s talking about the kind of growth that’s needed to put the millions sidelined in the stagnant economy back to work. That doesn’t make the problem go away, however, and it won’t until we put pro-growth policies in place in the tax and regulatory spheres that unlock capital and create work.


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Barack HUSSEIN Obama, national disaster.

ConstantineXI on April 2, 2014 at 9:25 AM

The good news? They’ve all automatically been signed up for Obamacare!

vnvet on April 2, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Damn global warming….

Electrongod on April 2, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Scraping the bottom of the barrel….

Barrack Obama style…

Electrongod on April 2, 2014 at 9:33 AM

Mediocre performance yet again. But don’t call this a jobless recovery!

Happy Nomad on April 2, 2014 at 9:34 AM

For the last five years, the media has calculated their reaction to these numbers by comparing it to their low expectations. No one’s talking about the kind of growth that’s needed to put the millions sidelined in the stagnant economy back to work. That doesn’t make the problem go away, however, and it won’t until we put pro-growth policies in place in the tax and regulatory spheres that unlock capital and create work.

…but the MSM will be trumpeting how ‘hot’ the economy is getting…until election time.

KOOLAID2 on April 2, 2014 at 9:36 AM

Treading water as usual. Expect the same for the next 2 1/2 years.

Doughboy on April 2, 2014 at 9:38 AM


“I think the fight for the election — elections are always about jobs. So I think that while we’re proud of the Affordable Care Act, we now pivot to job creation.”

- Nancy Pelosi

After taking a victory lap over the bogus number of Obamacare enrollees that somehow managed to surge to exactly the number needed for success in the last few hours before the deadline, the Dems think they’ll be able to put Obamacare past them and run on the massive number of jobs that have been created by the rat-eared wonder and his filthy party. Lots of luck with that.

Happy Nomad on April 2, 2014 at 9:43 AM

After blaming the brutal winter on the housing market tanking and employment literally freezing, this is a very weak report if correct. We should have cracked 225-250K easy if you listened to all of the economists forecasts in the last few months.

I have lots of friends that really need jobs but I am not holding out too much hope for the near term, as it appears we are just treading water in regards to jobs and population growth.

Johnnyreb on April 2, 2014 at 9:44 AM

I blame “Climate Change”. Ain’t nothing it can’t do!

GarandFan on April 2, 2014 at 10:01 AM

If there was a republican administration in charge of this clusterfark, the media crapweasels would all be demanding heads on pikes and the tarring and feathering of the POTUS. Since the Dog Eater is on the throne??…not so much…

bimmcorp on April 2, 2014 at 10:03 AM

No one’s talking about the kind of growth that’s needed to put the millions sidelined in the stagnant economy back to work.

And they won’t start talking about it until or unless there is a Republican president again.

jwolf on April 2, 2014 at 10:09 AM

Most of the gains came from the construction industry which added 20,000 jobs over the month

Here in Arizona, the construction industry has no “season” per se, but I would imagine other, colder parts of the country do. So wouldn’t this gain of 20,000 construction-related jobs be more of a seasonal gain, rather than a long-term gain?

Hill60 on April 2, 2014 at 10:11 AM

So someone explain to me how we can afford amnesty for illegals in this economy? The economy hasn’t recovered but the GOP and Hot Air bloggers are totally on board with giving our scarce employment opportunities to illegals and even more H1B visa holders. You happily sell out your fellow citizens and pander away our opportunities for the Chamber of Commerce.

magicbeans on April 2, 2014 at 10:19 AM

Maybe we should give Obama an Aug 31 deadline to add 7 million jobs. I’m sure it’ll work magic like the ACA, considering he hit 7 million signups without even really trying.

tdarrington on April 2, 2014 at 10:21 AM

magicbeans on April 2, 2014 at 10:19 AM

I hope y’all are referring to the bloggers that run HotAir and not the posters contributing, my friend. I am 100% for securing the borders and deporting every single person that is in this country without proper documentation. Period.

bimmcorp on April 2, 2014 at 10:41 AM

Take Texas out of the equation and what do you have? Then take out energy jobs created by drilling and producing on private and non-federal land. I bet that there would be very little left.

DAT60A3 on April 2, 2014 at 11:02 AM

I hope y’all are referring to the bloggers that run HotAir and not the posters contributing, my friend. I am 100% for securing the borders and deporting every single person that is in this country without proper documentation. Period.

bimmcorp on April 2, 2014 at 10:41 AM

No, I am referring to the bloggers who are trying to convince us that we are in a bad economy still after five years but we should get on board with the GOP amnesty push because of the Pope, the future of the GOP or whatever.

I’m frustrated. On one hand they supposedly care because hey, Americans need jobs. On the other hand they are willing to let illegal aliens and even more H1B visa holders come in and take those few jobs being created. It seems shady to me to use the economic pain of Americans to push one agenda while ignoring the economic pain of Americans for another agenda.

I’m not an economist so I could be all wrong about how this works but my common sense tells me its like when Obama assured us everything would go unchanged for people who were happy while life simultaneously improved for everyone who was unhappy. It doesn’t work that way. Someone loses and IMO it should not be the citizens of this country who lose for the sake of the citizens of other countries. I am also waiting breathlessly for the economic argument about how amnesty or whatever they prefer to call it is going to help turn our economy around.

Its the other posters, like you, who share my views on illegal immigration and increasing H1B visas that give me any hope at all. I’ve lost all faith in the GOP and sorry to say, I’m losing faith in Hot Air. And I really liked this place.

magicbeans on April 2, 2014 at 11:30 AM

Any numbers this administration comes up with are pure bullcr@p and not worth the time debating.

SheVee on April 2, 2014 at 11:32 AM

magicbeans on April 2, 2014 at 11:30 AM

The operators of HotAir are not really relevant to the discussion, in my view. What is important is what regular, American People think of the issues. The HotAir bloggers simply get sucked into the same elitist views that corrupt career politicians and beltway ‘journalists’. Power corrupts, and operators of web sites & journalists yield a certain amount of power within their spheres. HotAir may be infested with progressivism and a few RINOs, but it is still a better venue than most out there. Just stand firm and reject the traditional republican pablum and continue to spread the cause of true freedom through smaller, less intrusive government and common sense, conservative principles in all aspects of our existence. We really can’t do much else, can we??

bimmcorp on April 2, 2014 at 12:53 PM

We really can’t do much else, can we??

bimmcorp on April 2, 2014 at 12:53 PM

Nope, I suppose not. *sigh* I keep hoping karma will take care of some stuff, though.

magicbeans on April 2, 2014 at 2:47 PM