Sen. Warner leading in Virginia, but not because of ObamaCare

posted at 6:01 pm on March 27, 2014 by Erika Johnsen

The race for Virginia Democrat Mark Warner’s Senate seat isn’t nearly as competitive as those for some of his purple-to-redder-state colleagues currently in hot water, and according to a Quinnipiac poll released today, Warner holds a solid 15-point lead over likely Republican challenger Ed Gillespie — but I think it’s safe to say that his lead isn’t because Virginia voters just adore ObamaCare:

Warner is favored by 46 percent of voters as he seeks a second term, compared with 31 percent for Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, according to the Quinnipiac University survey. Libertarian Robert Sarvis has 6 percent backing.

… Virginia voters oppose the healthcare law 52 percent to 44 percent, the poll showed.

Voters in Virginia, a swing state in presidential elections, said 45 percent to 31 percent that they were less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who supported the health care law. …

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said Warner enjoyed high name recognition and a strong job approval rating, at 55 percent.

He is in the range that suggests that an incumbent is a heavy favorite for re-election, Brown said in a statement accompanying the poll.

Warner is already a known quantity with high name recognition and fundraising abilities in Virginia, while 64 percent of voters said they still don’t know enough about Gillespie to form an opinion about him. It’s a comfortable lead for the Democrat, but if an upset is in the cards, Gillespie has the built-in network to raise some beaucoup bucks — and Warner’s ObamaCare-”yea”-vote/Obama-”yes”-man record is a liability of which Team Gillespie will definitely be looking to take advantage.

Ergo, I’m sure Warner feels that he can’t be too careful. Time to start beating the “fix it, don’t nix it” drums even harder, via the WSJ:

Hoping to change that, Democratic Sens. Mark Warner of Virginia, Mark Begich of Alaska, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, as well as Sen. Angus King (I., Maine), plan to introduce as soon as Thursday a set of principles and legislation aimed at strengthening the health law, according to lawmakers and Senate Democratic aides. …

Among the proposals likely to be included is one backed by Messrs. Begich and Warner offering a new kind of insurance plan, a “copper” plan featuring lower premiums and higher out-of-pocket costs than the “bronze,” “silver” and “gold” options on the government-run health-care exchanges.

Lawmakers also would like to make health care more affordable for small businesses by expanding certain tax credits and making them available for longer. And Mr. Warner said on Fox News earlier this week that he favors enabling the sale of health insurance across state lines, an idea that has garnered interest among House Republicans as well.


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Of course. Screw Virginia anyway.

Jack_Burton on March 27, 2014 at 6:06 PM

Sen. Warner leading in Virginia, but not because of ObamaCare

Well gee, they just elected one of the biggest Toilet Bugs currently breathing for a Governor….

Color me shocked.

BigWyo on March 27, 2014 at 6:07 PM

Leeches and government workers (more leeches) evidently now total more than 50% of the Virginia population.

To bad.

cozmo on March 27, 2014 at 6:11 PM

This is why we need term limits, I know Warner wouldn’t be term limited yet since he was elected in 2008 but he is still a career politician and is enjoying high numbers because of his last name.

Doesn’t change the fact that he is a progressive big government statist, but his last name is allowing him to be able to deflect a lot of criticism.

That and the Virginia suburbs feeding at the government trough like a bunch of swine. Can’t put an end to that gravy train

tcufrog on March 27, 2014 at 6:11 PM

Make him sweat.

22044 on March 27, 2014 at 6:13 PM

I think VA can be safely called a blue state from hereon out…

OmahaConservative on March 27, 2014 at 6:14 PM

Also look at the crosstabs of the poll… Rand Paul performs the best against Hilary, gets the highest percentage of vote at 42%

But we have to be all “electable” you know, can’t support Rand

Also look at the gender gap. Warner only wins by 4 points with Men, but 23 points with women. We always hear about how we need to attract minorities, but what about women? That seems to be the biggest disparity.

tcufrog on March 27, 2014 at 6:15 PM

“Fix it…don’t nix it”. Does this mean that the ‘fix’ is in? Since the idjits in N. Virginia elected that round-mouthed Yankee as Guv, Warner is in like a stuffed ballot box.

vnvet on March 27, 2014 at 6:17 PM

Virginia is lost

Franklin100 on March 27, 2014 at 6:20 PM

“I’m opposed to ocare…it’s going to double or triple my insurance costs…can’t keep my doctor…can’t go to a major hospital…totally screwed…but I’m gonna go ahead and send one of the clowns who did this to me back to Congress.”

Fools.

Rational Thought on March 27, 2014 at 6:22 PM

People really like Mark Warner since he is the perfect Virginia politician: Boring, bland, moderate, and kisses the ring of the establishment.

Even John Warner, the Republican model of the above, endorsed him without hesitation.

It probably would have been wiser to talk Bill Bolling into running against Warner. Ed Gillespie is a real non-starter.

Punchenko on March 27, 2014 at 6:22 PM

Also look at the gender gap. Warner only wins by 4 points with Men, but 23 points with women. We always hear about how we need to attract minorities, but what about women? That seems to be the biggest disparity.

tcufrog on March 27, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Men have been neutered, so women need their government husbands and daddies. Neutering the men really was a brilliant move by the left. I mean…brilliant until the bad guys come.

Rational Thought on March 27, 2014 at 6:24 PM

Virginia is where all the Washington DC Federal employees live.

Makes sense.

portlandon on March 27, 2014 at 6:30 PM

The Virginia GOP has been a disaster for years.

huckleberryfriend on March 27, 2014 at 6:31 PM

“Fix it…don’t nix it”. Does this mean that the ‘fix’ is in? Since the idjits in N. Virginia elected that round-mouthed Yankee as Guv, Warner is in like a stuffed ballot box.

vnvet on March 27, 2014 at 6:17 PM

I don’t know about that. Bob McDonnell trounced Creigh Deeds not too long ago despite Northern VA.

A lot of folks — especially in the business community (like developers) — did not like Cuccinelli. The establishment in VA also did not like Cuccinelli.

Punchenko on March 27, 2014 at 6:31 PM

Is (alleged) Libertarian Robt. Sarvis now the perennial candidate in every VA statewide race? Wasn’t he running in the Gov. race too?

jffree1 on March 27, 2014 at 6:33 PM

Meanwhile, former REPUBLICAN senator John Warner has endorsed the democrat candidate, Mark Warner.

But yeah, we just need to elect more republicans, lol.

xblade on March 27, 2014 at 6:34 PM

I don’t know about that. Bob McDonnell trounced Creigh Deeds not too long ago despite Northern VA.

A lot of folks — especially in the business community (like developers) — did not like Cuccinelli. The establishment in VA also did not like Cuccinelli.

Punchenko on March 27, 2014 at 6:31 PM

Cuccinelli actually won some key business endorsements. They ultimately weren’t enough.

22044 on March 27, 2014 at 6:36 PM

Men have been neutered, so women need their government husbands and daddies. Neutering the men really was a brilliant move by the left. I mean…brilliant until the bad guys come.

Rational Thought on March 27, 2014 at 6:24 PM

There’s a desperate need for the return of Alfa Males to lead, if any can be found.

Wade on March 27, 2014 at 6:38 PM

It is time for the GOP to write Virginia off and quit wasting money there. With a few exceptions it is Democrat now due to the influx of people from Maryland and DC.

Johnnyreb on March 27, 2014 at 6:39 PM

Take from it what you will, but Rasmussen has Iowa’s dem candidate running only 3 pts ahead of professional “pig testicle remover” Jodi Ernst. It is the closest she has gotten to Braley in every public poll taken.

So suck it Virginia.

NWConservative on March 27, 2014 at 6:41 PM

Even ALPHA males… damned spell checkers. Alfalfa not needed.

Wade on March 27, 2014 at 6:42 PM

15 point lead? Go to Hell, Northern Virginia, go to hell.

WannabeAnglican on March 27, 2014 at 6:45 PM

I don’t know about that. Bob McDonnell trounced Creigh Deeds not too long ago despite Northern VA.

A lot of folks — especially in the business community (like developers) — did not like Cuccinelli. The establishment in VA also did not like Cuccinelli.

Punchenko on March 27, 2014 at 6:31 PM

Cuccinelli actually won some key business endorsements. They ultimately weren’t enough.

22044 on March 27, 2014 at 6:36 PM

If he did they would have ponied up some serious $$$. One name in particular stood out for me during that campaign:

S. Buford Scott, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of BB&T Scott & Stringfellow, said he is supporting McAuliffe because “he is committed to making vital improvements to our transportation systems in Virginia and knows what it takes to diversify Virginia’s economy so we can compete in a global economy.” Scott also referenced McAuliffe’s efforts to garner support for the bipartisan transportation compromise earlier this year as a testament to his commitment to finding mainstream solutions to the challenges facing the Commonwealth.

It’s always about the $$$.

The establishment pretty much took Terry over Cuccinnelli but would have went for Bolling if he got the nomination. Virginia has always been an establishment state.

Punchenko on March 27, 2014 at 6:46 PM

For those unaware of how elections used to be won in VA:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byrd_Organization

Punchenko on March 27, 2014 at 6:56 PM

a “copper” plan featuring lower premiums and higher out-of-pocket costs

Go for it. I’m sure a $15,000 deductible and $100 copays are going to be perceived as wonderful.

Grammar Nazi on March 27, 2014 at 6:57 PM

Northern Virginia is the home of the permanent ruling class which will always vote Democrat to insure that they continue enjoying all the perks that ruling class status allows. Unless Southern and Western Virginia come out in huge numbers a Democrat will always win statewide elections.

paulus1 on March 27, 2014 at 7:07 PM

I think VA can be safely called a blue Communist Red state from hereon out…

OmahaConservative on March 27, 2014 at 6:14 PM

ReWrite™ engaged for color correction.

Steve Eggleston on March 27, 2014 at 7:39 PM

Warner offering a new kind of insurance plan, a “copper” plan featuring lower premiums and higher out-of-pocket costs than the “bronze,” “silver” and “gold” options on the government-run health-care exchanges.

Well, the bronze has 40% copays. You want insurance to cover less than 40%? What is the point of having insurance?

talkingpoints on March 27, 2014 at 7:40 PM

Warner offering a new kind of insurance plan, a “copper” plan featuring lower premiums and higher out-of-pocket costs than the “bronze,” “silver” and “gold” options on the government-run health-care exchanges.

Well, the bronze has 40% copays. You want insurance to cover less than 40%? What is the point of having insurance?

talkingpoints on March 27, 2014 at 7:40 PM

There already is a piece-of-crap Obamacare ‘catastrophic-only’ plan available to under-30′s only. It’s not named after a metal.

Obamacare Catastrophic Health Insurance Plans in Your Area

This is exactly the kind of plan that the Democratics called substandard and worthless before the ram-through of the piece-of-crap Obamacare.

slickwillie2001 on March 27, 2014 at 7:47 PM

I think VA can be safely called a blue state from hereon out…

OmahaConservative on March 27, 2014 at 6:14 PM

It is time for the GOP to write Virginia off and quit wasting money there. With a few exceptions it is Democrat now due to the influx of people from Maryland and DC.

Johnnyreb on March 27, 2014 at 6:39 PM

Y’all might want to check some facts before you get too depressed. The Virginia state house of delegates is TWO-THIRDS Republican (68-32 to be precise). If you look at the historical trend it’s been getting redder for a long time and is now the reddest EVER (scroll down to the Party Control section.)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_House_of_Delegates

Pythagoras on March 27, 2014 at 7:53 PM

Two points. When an incumbent is under 50%, you have a shot.

Second, Ed Gillespie is Karl Roves right hand man and pure establishment. Just sayin.

KMav on March 27, 2014 at 7:59 PM

By the way, Governor McAwful wants to shut down the government instead of passing a budget. Because of O-No-Care.

22044 on March 27, 2014 at 8:13 PM

Among the proposals likely to be included is one backed by Messrs. Begich and Warner offering a new kind of insurance plan, a “copper” plan featuring lower premiums and higher out-of-pocket costs than the “bronze,” “silver” and “gold” options on the government-run health-care exchanges.

Here’s the dirty secret: The unspoken rule in the ACA is that every policy will extract no less than $12,000 per year in any combination of premiums and deductibles. Period. Most people will pay more.

The idea is to prevent the insurance companies from paying out for standard care. The income they make will be used to pay for those who don’t pay for themselves.

Its a re-distribution scheme, nothing more.

BobMbx on March 27, 2014 at 8:24 PM

Virginia voted for Obama. They get what they deserve.

alanstern on March 27, 2014 at 8:36 PM

Women determine the outcome of elections. White males vote republican, minorities vote democratic. Women are the deciding factor.

alanstern on March 27, 2014 at 8:40 PM

Go for it. I’m sure a $15,000 deductible and $100 copays are going to be perceived as wonderful.

Grammar Nazi on March 27, 2014 at 6:57 PM

You nailed it. These clowns have completely misunderstood why Obamacare sucks.

My current plan has a $2500 deductible, which was always considered “high”. Now a plan for the equivalent price has a $6800 deductible, plus I’ll be lucky if I can find a hospital that accepts it. Why have insurance? I might as well fly to the Mayo Clinic when I get sick and put everything on my VISA. At least I’ll get points.

Warner is such a turd.

Joseph K on March 27, 2014 at 9:27 PM

They’ve essentially made all insurance catastrophic insurance, except for mammograms, birth control, and abortion. Oh yeah, and preventative care, which doesn’t prevent anything.

Joseph K on March 27, 2014 at 9:29 PM

Of course. Screw Virginia anyway.

Jack_Burton on March 27, 2014 at 6:06 PM

Same to you pal. I literally fled the PRMD (People’s Republic of Maryland) to find work here. I’ll be damned if I’m going to roll over and let the Dems hold this state!

Yes, the idjits in NoVA elected Terry Mac-but our statehouses have ALWAYS been Republican controlled even when Dems ran the Governor’s mansion. Giving up a populous purple state gets us no where.

SgtSVJones on March 27, 2014 at 10:07 PM

Hopefully there are thunderstorms in Northern VA on election day.

Besides the fact I live in VA, I’m very interested in this race. Gillespie is a boring, quintessential establishment guy with a lot of well-heeled connections and has about zero chance of Akin-izing himself. He’s the ideal guy to fly under the radar in a midterm to keep all the 20-something Arlington socialites birth control prohibition paranoia at bay and maybe even cause a lot of them to forget that there’s an election. And, I’m really interested to see how Obamacare ads affect Warner’s favorables.

That said, Warner is going to be very tough to beat. He’s the worst kind of Democrat for us: mild-mannered, rhetorically moderate and disciplined but lockstep voting liberal. If he goes down though…whoa nelly! That will be a political earthquake. We may have 67 senate votes to repeal Obamacare the next morning.

crrr6 on March 27, 2014 at 10:39 PM

…I don’t call ‘that’ state Virginia any longer…I call it V@gina!

KOOLAID2 on March 27, 2014 at 11:03 PM

The election will probably be closer than 15 points, but Gillespie won’t win. The major news outlets in VA won’t endorse Gillespie. There won’t be much media attention at all for this election, because that favors Warner. If Gillespie closes the gap, the media will report any missteps by Gillespie or skeletons in his closet.

Gillespie has to find a way to have Sarvis removed from the ballot, which he probably can’t do. Then Gillespie needs to start running wall to wall negative ads on TV. The 15 point spread isn’t going inspire the RNC to help Gillespie. Gillespie has to close that gap fast or the RNC will abandon him.

edrebber on March 27, 2014 at 11:34 PM

Y’all might want to check some facts before you get too depressed. The Virginia state house of delegates is TWO-THIRDS Republican (68-32 to be precise). If you look at the historical trend it’s been getting redder for a long time and is now the reddest EVER (scroll down to the Party Control section.)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_House_of_Delegates

Pythagoras on March 27, 2014 at 7:53 PM

Yes, where I live in western Fairfax County is rather Conservative, if you exclude the tree huggers in Reston. The further west from my house you go, the more friendly to real Americans it gets. Outside of portions of Richmond, Portsmouth, Norfolk, Charlottesville, and the Beltway, you’re right, Virginia is a Red State. Having lived in the Richmond area and the Hampton Roads area for many years prior to relocating to the Peoples Republic of Northern Virginia, places like Norfolk, Portsmouth and the City of Richmond have one thing in common that makes them reliable Dem teek suckers – they’re heavily ……. blaaaaaaaack.

RandallinHerndon on March 28, 2014 at 6:32 AM