FiveThirtyEight: GOP now has a better than 50% chance of retaking Senate

posted at 5:01 pm on March 23, 2014 by Jazz Shaw

Not that long ago, ( last July, to be precise) Nate Silver was still calling the 2014 Senate race as effectively being a toss-up. But this week the self-proclaimed prognosticator of prognosticators has revised his estimate and moved the Republicans into a possibly, maybe, just by the skin of your teeth favorite for all of you political betters.

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way.

Follow the link for the chart showing the full breakdown and the percentages for each, but not too many of these should come as a big surprise. As Nate notes in the intro, he’s got Walsh’s seat in Montana as a relatively solid takeaway for the GOP, along with the newly opening seats in South Dakota and West Virginia. The other two Dem seats Nate lists for a switch are Pryor and Landrieu (no surprises there either) with Kay Hagan in North Carolina coming in at a 50-50 split but moving in the GOP’s direction.

Some of the more interesting picks are that he’s got McConnell hanging on fairly safely in Kentucky and Georgia’s open seat staying in the red column. I suppose if I was going to quibble with any of them, the most likely debate would be over Alaska. Nate has Begich running as a ten point favorite, which sounds a bit on the generous side. He’s also very nearly ruling out a Republican win in Michigan by the same margin. I wouldn’t call either of those a dead lock for the GOP, but they also don’t look nearly that far out of reach.

Then again, you have to give credit where credit is due. Silver has racked up quite the record at playing these numbers, so I won’t make the mistake of completely discounting him again. But it’s very early in the year, with many a slip twixt the cup and lip between now and November. A 51 seat majority wouldn’t be bad, but a 54 seat margin would look a lot better.


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Comment pages: 1 2

but if ms. lindsey graham gets reelected…what difference does it make?

renalin on March 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

A 51 seat majority would not last long. Republicans have too many regressive’s in the party that can be persuaded to change sides. Then again, they might not change sides just for the fact that the wind is in the wrong direction, but I would not count on that being the case.

astonerii on March 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

but if ms. lindsey graham gets reelected…what difference does it make?

renalin on March 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

Harry Reid wont be Senate leader. A clear, absolute traitor to the USA wont be in charge of the Senate. Surely that must be worth something.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

There’s still an eternity (in relative terms) left to go. Many things can happen between then and now.

obamacare.

rightside on March 23, 2014 at 5:10 PM

‘pubs! Start yer circular firing squad!

vnvet on March 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

Never trust magic 8 ball, Bmore fiddled with it’s main-board, it lies like a rug now… <— Insert evil laughter here…

oscarwilde on March 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

All this depends on getting McCain into the attic and keeping him there.

VorDaj on March 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

The leftist thugs deride military service when righties run for the senate.

Here is the reverse, hypocritical azzes at the NYT

Senator John Walsh, Democrat of Montana, second from left, at a Senate National Guard Caucus breakfast in Washington. He was appointed last month to the seat vacated by Max Baucus and is running for election in November, hoping that his career in uniform remains an asset.

Rightie in uniform = who do they think they are to run for office?

Leftist in uniform = good

NYSlimes, you are the bird droppings collectors.

Schadenfreude on March 23, 2014 at 5:12 PM

The pendulum swings back – it always does. All good for now.

jake-the-goose on March 23, 2014 at 5:13 PM

Capito might tip the senate.

Schadenfreude on March 23, 2014 at 5:14 PM

It w/b so funny if Carl Levin’s seat w/b taken by a R.

Schadenfreude on March 23, 2014 at 5:15 PM

Terrific. Progressivism 2.0 on the march.

Unless the leadership changes, it only signifies a slower and more painful death of the US of A!

katy on March 23, 2014 at 5:17 PM

A 51 seat majority would not last long. Republicans have too many regressive’s in the party that can be persuaded to change sides. Then again, they might not change sides just for the fact that the wind is in the wrong direction, but I would not count on that being the case.

astonerii on March 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

This is someone who desperately wants to elect democrats and is out to get the rubes to either stay at home or vote dem.

There were at least three other times we had smaller discussions. Maybe you should get a notepad and write this down. If the Republican nominee is Romney, then astonerii and his extended family will be voting for Obama.
astonerii on February 6, 2012 at 11:54 AM

The point of voting Obama is to try to prevent Romney from ruining the brand name. Like Bush did….
astonerii on February 2, 2012 at 7:38 PM

I vote Obama

if the only other choice on the ballot is Romney. Nothing says end of a party like having that parties president preside over the end of the country.
astonerii on October 9, 2011 at 8:46 PM

Romney is absolutely unacceptable to me as a Republican president and why I will work against his election if he is the nominee.
astonerii on March 24, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Me, I will convince my 28 member extended family to vote Obama and let the Democrats take the responsibility for the next four years.
You can b!tch and moan all you want about how unfair it is….
astonerii on January 27, 2012 at 6:09 PM

I will never in my life vote for Willard Mitt Romney. I will vote in this election.
astonerii on March 21, 2012 at 11:10 PM

I will vote. It will not be for Willard Mitt Romney. If you cannot live with another 4 years of Obama, pity to you for being such a pathetically weak person.
astonerii on March 21, 2012 at 11:22 PM

I will actively vote against Romney, I will vote for the conservative in the Senate and House. […] I will not go third party, I will go for the throat and vote direct for Obama. Parties do not learn lessons, but the electorate does!
[...] Vote for Obama, vote for the conservative for congress. Got it.
astonerii on February 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I would vote Obama just to shut people like you up.
astonerii on November 29, 2011 at 8:20 PM

I see Romney as a bigger long term threat to the nation than Obama.
astonerii on April 5, 2012 at 7:09 PM

I will vote Obama if there is not a solid true conservative with enough backbone to reverse the direction of the nation.
astonerii on April 18, 2011 at 12:29 PM

I vote Obama if Romney is on the ticket. I will not go so far as to send a donation or put a sticker on my bumper, I never put stickers on my bumper, but I will vote.
astonerii on July 17, 2011 at 5:42 PM

I can vote for Obama. This gives the most value. I am young enough to fight in a civil war today and a decade or so more, thus if I vote Obama, and he can bring the collapse of the American dollar and our economy faster than the R, my vote for him gives me value.
[...]voting Obama if the primary voters decide to pick a progressive is my next best option.
astonerii on June 17, 2011 at 8:47 PM

The Obama presidency will finally be effectively over if the GOP gets control of the senate. His failure will be complete. (Sadly, then we can look forward to hearing how we need to vote for Hillary Clinton out of conservative principles or something…)

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:19 PM

‘pubs! Start yer circular firing squad!

vnvet on March 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

Exactly.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:23 PM

The media haven’t gotten involved yet.

And, it’s just a matter of time until some dumb socons give the media the soundbites that they need.

Moesart on March 23, 2014 at 5:24 PM

Harry Reid wont be Senate leader. A clear, absolute traitor to the USA wont be in charge of the Senate. Surely that must be worth something.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

How could you badmouth my beloved really short small man complex Senator like that./
Besides don’t be to sure a couple of R’s wouldn’t vote for him and that has no snark line attached.

CW20 on March 23, 2014 at 5:26 PM

The Obama presidency will finally be effectively over if the GOP gets control of the senate. His failure will be complete. (Sadly, then we can look forward to hearing how we need to vote for Hillary Clinton out of conservative principles or something…)

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:19 PM

You supported the Romney guy from your first post on this site. The guy who refused to fight to win the general election.
You argue that as voters we do not own our votes, that whoever the GOP candidate is automatically owns our vote.
That makes the votes worthless with respect to controlling the politicians in office. They are not earned votes for doing our bidding, thus the only place where the politician can look to earning votes is to the left of us.
V7_Sport and his like are the reason the party only transitions to the left and almost never to the right, and when it does transition to the right we get people like Mitch McConnell telling us how they will crush conservatives everywhere.

astonerii on March 23, 2014 at 5:26 PM

The media haven’t gotten involved yet.

And, it’s just a matter of time until some dumb socons give the media the soundbites that they need.

Moesart on March 23, 2014 at 5:24 PM

Tragically you have not been paying attention, the media has absolutely no intention of waiting for any socon to make any mistake, they fully intend to create that so called mistake out of whole cloth.

oscarwilde on March 23, 2014 at 5:26 PM

The GOP only has landslide election by accident. Whenever anyone says they will clean up far enough ahead of the time GOP makes sure they lose.

Warner Todd Huston on March 23, 2014 at 5:29 PM

500+ comments or bust.

Murphy9 on March 23, 2014 at 5:29 PM

Silver being an absolute deity to the left I bet there will be a lot of gnashing of teeth now.

jeffinsjvca on March 23, 2014 at 5:30 PM

Harry Reid wont be Senate leader. A clear, absolute traitor to the USA wont be in charge of the Senate. Surely that must be worth something.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

And McConnell is just a wishy-washy, underperforming traitor to the USA who bears an uncanny resemblance to a turtle.

Myron Falwell on March 23, 2014 at 5:31 PM

Wichita State loses. Crap.

Jaibones on March 23, 2014 at 5:32 PM

Wichita State loses. Crap.

Jaibones on March 23, 2014 at 5:32 PM

That’s a shame – I was hoping to see them go deep into the draw – Final 4.

Too bad

jake-the-goose on March 23, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Wichita State loses. Crap.

Jaibones on March 23, 2014 at 5:32 PM

Yeah, bummer!

Murphy9 on March 23, 2014 at 5:38 PM

All I have to say is who gives a damn if the GOP takes the senate this November, if the same old career politicians like McConnell, Graham, McCain, etc. are there

All they will do is point to 2016 and how they can’t jeopardize losing the senate in 2016 with all the seats they have to defend as reasons not to fight for conservatism. They will cater to the left and media’s demands and say “Can’t die on this hill, can’t risk 2016″ as excuses for caving.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 5:42 PM

500+ comments or bust.

Murphy9 on March 23, 2014 at 5:29 PM

Nah. LMAO about some National Guardsman appointed in Montana, running for re-election on his military background and nothing else, all the while the Democrats piss on the military and Mark Pryor scoffs at Tom Cotton’s “sense of entitlement” to run for office based on his military experience.

Oh, really? Let’s compare this to the Montana liberal douche’s qualifications, which Pryor presumably supports in full:

Born and raised on his family’s cattle farm in Yell County, Tom [cotton] is a sixth generation Arkansan and a native of the congressional district he now represents. He graduated from Dardanelle high school, Harvard, and Harvard Law School.

The 9/11 attacks occurring during Tom’s final year in law school, causing him to leave law after a clerkship with the U.S. Court of Appeals and a brief period in private practice to join the armed forces. Tom declined a commission as a JAG attorney and instead joined the United States Army as an Infantry Officer.

Montana’s Walsh has spent 30 years in the Montana National Guard, served in Iraq, and led 2,000 firemen battling a forest fire in Montana. Solid citizen, to be sure. But a) You wouldn’t trade that for Tom Cotton on a bet, and b) WTF is a guy like that doing in the Democrap party?

Jaibones on March 23, 2014 at 5:42 PM

OK, I will start by saying I despise Karl Rove, but I wrote down something he spouted when on FoxNews Recently. Here is his take on the Senate elections:

He predicts for sure pickups in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, all states with retiring Dem Senators. It can’t be a coincidence that these Dem Senators are all retiring at the same time in states where both McCain and Romney beat Obama. He stated that the GOP candidates are leading the likely Dem candidates anywhere from 14 to 20 points in current polling.

Then he went on to say the next 4 pickups are Arkansas, Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina. He said in these 4 states, the polls are even or the GOP is slightly ahead, even though the GOP candidates are not as well known as the Dem incumbents or candidates. I believe the AR and NC states will go GOP, but is IA and AK winnable? I haven’t seen polls in those states.

Then he said there are 6 other states up for possible grabs. He listed them as potential pickups in a wave election:

Colorado, Michigan (my state, I believe the GOP has a good top tier candidate that can win), New Hampshire (can Scott Brown really win there?), Virginia (really?), Minnesota (really?), and Oregon.

I haven’t seen any polling on these races but the MI race is going to get interesting. It is going to come down to whether the rest of the state can finally wrest voting power away from the sheer numbers from the SE part of the state. There has been so much erosion in population from the SE part of the state, MI might actually turn red in the national offices and elections. MI is already red at the state level, the whole legislature and all the state wide offices are held by the GOP. The former Secretary of State (GOP) is a well respected woman running against one of the Dem congress critters from the SE part of the state. I will not be surprised to see this seat turn this fall. The ancient, senile old Dem goat is retiring.

karenhasfreedom on March 23, 2014 at 5:44 PM

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:23 PM

Let me guess… you support McConnell, Graham, McCain, the establishment career politicians in races in Mississippi, Kansas, etc., also supported the debt ceiling increases and tax increases and budgets that raise spending because “We can’t die on that hill”

You opposed Ted Cruz during the shutdown and praise McConnell and Boehner’s pragmatism.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 5:45 PM

A clear, absolute traitor to the USA wont be in charge of the Senate. Surely that must be worth something.

V7_Sport

It would be if it were true. Sadly, it’s going to be someone who supports amnesty and open borders basically, which makes them as big a traitor as any democrat.

Sadly, then we can look forward to hearing how we need to vote for Hillary Clinton out of conservative principles or something…)

V7_Sport

And if Hillary ran as a republican, you’d say we have to vote for her because she’s a republican, and winning is all that matters.

xblade on March 23, 2014 at 5:49 PM

funny, I was just explaining to someone why the RINO party is doomed, and will be a small rump party holding a few states.

but, really, nate’s column is just there to fire up the left. Galvanize them around the Party. There disaffected GOPers, but there’s also disaffected leftists…pretty much in the dumper.

the DNC will use this to raise money and for GOTV activities. Meanwhile, i wouldn’t wager any money on the RINO party winning the Senate.

Which is a bad thing…bad for the county with the Reid/Obama machine ruling congress

r keller on March 23, 2014 at 5:52 PM

Rove predicted a Romney win…..

vnvet on March 23, 2014 at 5:54 PM

With “leaders” like Boner and McRINO what difference, at this point, does it make?

ConstantineXI on March 23, 2014 at 5:59 PM

John McCain will hold the Senate for the Dems by switching parties. Won’t matter what he does.

Whoever pays him the most, keeps his seat.

Key West Reader on March 23, 2014 at 6:00 PM

Whatever it takes to win as many races as possible, and that means nominating the most winnable candidates.

2016, IL, WI, PA, OH seats are going to be tough to defend. Need a 2 to 3 seat buffer. Winning the WH and losing the senate would suck.

Also, I think Dems pick Booker or Patrick for veep to keep their minority turnout machine rolling.

swamp_yankee on March 23, 2014 at 6:01 PM

Whatever it takes to win as many races as possible, and that means nominating the most winnable candidates.

Agree completely.

GOP threw away senate seats in red states in 2012 like Montana, North Dakota, Florida, and West Virginia by nominating establishment supported milquetoast moderates that did not fire up the base and made the base stay home.

No excuses for losing senate seats in those states.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:05 PM

Then he went on to say the next 4 pickups are Arkansas, Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina. He said in these 4 states, the polls are even or the GOP is slightly ahead, even though the GOP candidates are not as well known as the Dem incumbents or candidates.

One part of my analysis of the disappearing RINO party is that the state parties are very weak. the RINOs have been losing whole states over the last 20 years (think VA, IL, CO, NM). When you are non-competitive in so many states it is a problem. You then develop a weak farm team…and therefore put out weak candidates

Todd Akin was the best example in a long time. A many term congressman. The MOGOP didn’t endorse or vet anyone. Wound up with a Nut. Surprise!!

but i’m sure that the MOGOP has real nice annual conventions and all for their senior members

r keller on March 23, 2014 at 6:06 PM

Do I want a GOP majority, or do I want McConnell & Graham to lose? Maybe I’ll get both!

SouthernGent on March 23, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Also GOP threw away a potential seat in Wisconsin with a boring moderate that did not fire up the base. Throw that in with the GOP refusing to support the candidate in Indiana and the sore loser Lugar campaigning against him, GOP threw away seats in 2012 with their establishment-or-nothing approach.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Republicans have always been known to count their chickens before they hatch. While there is a slim chance of them winning the senate, who in their right mind believes they will be able to force Obama to adopt any of their pie in the sky policies? Obama will still be Obama and nothing will change. Guaranteed.

Also, Obama has always been a lame duck since his party lost the house in 2010. Who thinks winning the senate make him a lamer duck? Only thing winning the senate will do in my opinion is put more blame on the republicans on being part of the problems in Washington. No more ” we only control one branch of the government” talking point. And you bet your a$$ a republican house and senate will wake up the dems big time in 2016.

loveofcountry on March 23, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Of course, if they get a Senate majority, you can count on Susan Collins and John McCain being their usual selves.

Stoic Patriot on March 23, 2014 at 6:11 PM

Rove predicted a Romney win…..

vnvet on March 23, 2014 at 5:54 PM

Monday morning quarterbacking the 2012 elections i see. 99% of the posters on this blog predicted a Romney win.

loveofcountry on March 23, 2014 at 6:12 PM

I’m glad many agree we to stop supporting talent-less loons because they are really good at doing nothing but talking about how principled they are even though they have never governed anything effectively.

swamp_yankee on March 23, 2014 at 6:12 PM

We should be able to put Alaska in the win column, if we don’t support highly unpopular unwinnable disaster like Joe Miller

swamp_yankee on March 23, 2014 at 6:14 PM

Of course, if they get a Senate majority, you can count on Susan Collins and John McCain being their usual selves.

Stoic Patriot on March 23, 2014 at 6:11 PM

I think the amnesty push will be even greater if the GOP takes the senate. That way the GOP can think they can get credit for amnesty because they control congress. They will pass it to satisfy their crony capitalist donors and hope they get credit from the media for being bipartisan and doing the right thing with their new majorities.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

A few of the weasels would go Arlen Specter on us and we would be back to square one…

hillsoftx on March 23, 2014 at 6:16 PM

I’m glad many agree we to stop supporting talent-less loons because they are really good at doing nothing but talking about how principled they are even though they have never governed anything effectively.

swamp_yankee on March 23, 2014 at 6:12 PM

Spoken like a true establishment hack.

Because the career lifelong politicians we have in Washington now have done such a good job.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:16 PM

I think the amnesty push will be even greater if the GOP takes the senate. That way the GOP can think they can get credit for amnesty because they control congress. They will pass it to satisfy their crony capitalist donors and hope they get credit from the media for being bipartisan and doing the right thing with their new majorities.

tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

You bet it will unless some of the real conservatives running win, especially if Matt Bevin can take out McConnell. If we could get a few more like Sessions, Cruz and Vitter who oppose amnesty, we may have a chance to stop it.

OT – Pray to the basketball gods that my alma mater Stephen F. Austin beats UCLA tonight. It would be Hoosiers 2.0 (the movie of course).

TxAnn56 on March 23, 2014 at 6:20 PM

Not unless the winning margins for the (R)’s are larger than the vote rigging and manufacturing effort of the (D)’s they won’t.

Without voter ID laws in all states, we will never again see a trustworthy election in this country again.

Meople on March 23, 2014 at 6:21 PM

My Prediction: the Neostatists will win. Which party those Neostatists belong to is anyone’s guess

Brock Robamney on March 23, 2014 at 6:22 PM

Without voter ID laws in all states, we will never again see a trustworthy election in this country again.

Meople on March 23, 2014 at 6:21 PM

Hah, even with them they cheat. They just keep the Republicans from checking the I.D.s

astonerii on March 23, 2014 at 6:23 PM

astonerii on March 23, 2014 at 6:23 PM

That may be the case too, but without the ID laws to begin with, if it’s a close election at all, we have no chance.

Meople on March 23, 2014 at 6:24 PM

I think the amnesty push will be even greater if the GOP takes the senate. That way the GOP can think they can get credit for amnesty because they control congress. They will pass it to satisfy their crony capitalist donors and hope they get credit from the media for being bipartisan and doing the right thing with their new majorities.
tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

The operative word is IF. But does it really matter which party wins? No.

Brock Robamney on March 23, 2014 at 6:25 PM

Anything this guy says is part of a larger strategy to turn the upcoming wave. The Democrats have to make a breakthrough in midterm turnout. If Democrats turn out their inner city base, they win.

Nexialist on March 23, 2014 at 6:29 PM

It w/b so funny if Carl Levin’s seat w/b taken by a R.

Schadenfreude on March 23, 2014 at 5:15 PM

…it would be a travesty…with her record…if she doesn’t!

KOOLAID2 on March 23, 2014 at 6:34 PM

Do I want a GOP majority, or do I want McConnell & Graham to lose? Maybe I’ll get both!

SouthernGent on March 23, 2014 at 6:08 PM

C’mon, let’s keep our feet on the ground shall we?

This is the GOP we are talking about. They have a inbred prohibition against having a cake and eating it too.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on March 23, 2014 at 6:36 PM

The most likely outcome, is that the GOP will be betrayed by people within the GOP who believe that winning at any cost is more important than principals. If they believe that they either cannot win, or that winning will result in the GOP “The Means Justifies the Ends” crowd losing control of the GOP (To say, TEA Party Conservatives) you will see them do what they did with Romney, scuttle the GOP’s chances rather than lose control of the Party.

oscarwilde on March 23, 2014 at 6:36 PM

10d
Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorses Ben Sasse in Nebraska Senate race – @SarahPalinUSA

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152289329098588&set=a.10150723283643588.424640.24718773587&type=1

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 6:48 PM

GOP now has a better than 50% chance of retaking Senate

Except our foot is right there. And our leaders are such good shots.

kcewa on March 23, 2014 at 6:51 PM

HOME / DISCLOSURE PORTAL HOME / NATIONAL MAP
2014 House and Senate Campaign Finance

http://www.fec.gov/disclosurehs/hsnational.do

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 6:52 PM

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorses Ben Sasse in Nebraska Senate race – @SarahPalinUSA

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 6:48 PM

Sass for Sasse

kcewa on March 23, 2014 at 6:53 PM

So what? What do you think’s going to happen thwn the vaunted GOP takes the Senate? About as much as when they took the House in 2010.

Obama will sign more EOs and grab more power and the GOP will roll over faster lest they make a fuss and damage their chances for 2016.

rrpjr on March 23, 2014 at 6:56 PM

2014 Overview

Most Expensive Races

Some Congressional races are seeing more spent by super PACs and other outside groups than the candidates themselves. Use the options below to see the most expensive races based on either campaign committees alone or candidate campaign committees combined with outside spending by groups not affiliated with the campaigns.

Senate
******

Raised
======

1. Kentucky Senate $24,574,111
2.Massachusetts* Senate $20,995,388
3. Minnesota Senate $20,434,574
4. Texas Senate $16,995,209
5. Louisiana Senate $15,207,222
6. Georgia Senate $13,602,416
7. New Jersey* Senate $13,062,310
8. North Carolina Senate $12,278,340
9. Colorado Senate $9,765,340
10. Arkansas Senate $9,674,810

Spent
*****

1. Massachusetts* Senate $20,765,619
2. Minnesota Senate $15,897,810
3. Texas Senate $11,760,247
4. New Jersey* Senate $11,250,629
5. Kentucky Senate $9,591,128
6. Arkansas Senate $5,538,697
7. Georgia Senate $5,006,416
8. Delaware Senate $4,831,183
9. Illinois Senate $4,417,790
10. Colorado Senate $4,352,103
==================================

https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/topraces.php

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 6:59 PM

GOP now has a better than 50% chance of retaking Senate

and blocking Obama’s socialist pick to fill Ginsburg’s absence on the Supreme Court.

Flora Duh on March 23, 2014 at 7:02 PM

karenhasfreedom on March 23, 2014 at 5:44 PM

You must mean LA rather than IA as a likely GOP pick-up. The Dem candidate leads all GOP potential candidates in polling in Iowa and since you did not mention Louisiana which is at best 50/50 for Landrieu, I have to believe the abbreviations for IA and LA got mixed up.

KW64 on March 23, 2014 at 7:06 PM

Whatever. Who cares.

Everyone that thinks this will materially change anything, please raise your hand…

and blocking Obama’s socialist pick to fill Ginsburg’s absence on the Supreme Court.

Flora Duh on March 23, 2014 at 7:02 PM

Care to bet on that? I can tell you know, we’ll have people like McConnell and McCain and Graham rattling sabres a bit, then making comments like “elections have consequences”, “the President gets to make his appointments”, etc.

Midas on March 23, 2014 at 7:08 PM

Casualty List: 113th Congress (2013-2014)
*****************************************

Retiring – (21 House: 10D, 11R; 6 Senate: 4D, 2R)

Last Updated: March 10, 2014

Senate:

Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., 70, 2 terms
Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, 74, 5 terms
Mike Johanns, R-Neb., 62, 1 term
Tim Johnson, D-S.D., 67, 3 terms
Carl Levin, D-Mich., 79, 6 terms
Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., 76, 5 terms

http://www.rollcall.com/politics/casualtylist.html/

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 7:09 PM

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 6:48 PM

Sass for Sasse

kcewa on March 23, 2014 at 6:53 PM

kcewa: Good one!:)

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 7:15 PM

Care to bet on that? I can tell you know, we’ll have people like McConnell and McCain and Graham rattling sabres a bit, then making comments like “elections have consequences”, “the President gets to make his appointments”, etc.

Midas on March 23, 2014 at 7:08 PM

I’d rather take the chance that you’re wrong. But, if it makes the Hot Air Nostradamus Society feel better about themselves to sit around whining “what difference does it make”, have at it.

I won’t be a part of it.

Flora Duh on March 23, 2014 at 7:26 PM

The GOP needs more than 51 seats to prevent a Jumping Jim Jeffords moment where the filthy stupid bastard had a “principled shift” to the Dems after GWB didn’t invite him to a White House event.

John McCain or Cornyn would join the Dems in a heartbeat if too many of those tea baggers get elected.

Happy Nomad on March 23, 2014 at 7:28 PM

I see that a lot of you are starting to be honest; you’re not Republicans. You’re haters who oppose everyone and everything, wanting the world to be as miserable as you.

The Quitter’s endorsement is wonderful news for Shane Osborn.

BrianJ on March 23, 2014 at 7:29 PM

I think the amnesty push will be even greater if the GOP takes the senate. That way the GOP can think they can get credit for amnesty because they control congress. They will pass it to satisfy their crony capitalist donors and hope they get credit from the media for being bipartisan and doing the right thing with their new majorities.
tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Yep. One big reason I want people like Graham and McConnell out of there. Would love to see McConnell lose the primary.

bluegill on March 23, 2014 at 7:44 PM

Want to see them replaces with conservatives like Cruz.

bluegill on March 23, 2014 at 7:44 PM

The GOP taking the Senate? Will anybody in the GOP be a Conservative?

Ruckus_Tom on March 23, 2014 at 7:45 PM

Remember November
******** ********

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABVmx24chnU

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 7:46 PM

HeatherGrantNC Heather Grant Oct 27
I am an American and a Patriot. I will not be silenced. It is my responsibility to #MakeDCListen. #ncsen #tcot pic.twitter.com/VI78xqxlmx

https://twitter.com/heathergrantnc/status/394620582584913920/photo/1/large

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 7:47 PM

Alaska should be a slam dunk if they pick Dan Sullivan. He was endorsed by Club for Growth. Hope Sarah Palin will too.

Then the state needs to be hammered with ads about how the “moderate” Begich supported the Obama agenda 92% of the time.

cat_owner on March 23, 2014 at 7:49 PM

canopfor on March 23, 2014 at 7:47 PM

Another one I hope Palin will endorse. Right now I’m afraid the establishment pick will win the primary.

cat_owner on March 23, 2014 at 7:52 PM

Todd Akin was the best example in a long time.

r keller on March 23, 2014 at 6:06 PM

And yet, if the GOP had spent some money in that race instead of completely cutting off the spigot, Akin probably would have won. Let me translate:

If the GOPe had supported the candidate with the (R) by his name regardless of his position on issues (like the GOPe constantly says conservatives should do), then that would likely have been a GOP seat.

Same goes for Cuccinelli in Virginia.

Get this much straight: if the GOPe wants conservatives to support any Republican candidate regardless of political positions, they had BETTER do the same for conservative Republican candidates. That’s one big reason that conservatives are rebelling: Do as I say, not as I do.

yaedon on March 23, 2014 at 8:01 PM

I won’t be a part of it.

Flora Duh on March 23, 2014 at 7:26 PM

Aw, you’re just so precious when you act superior! It’s enough to give someone goosebumps!

Does it make you feel better to sit around whimpering that the GOP will act as though it has a spine when there’s no evidence to suggest such a thing? When, in fact, the evidence suggests the exact opposite?

Midas on March 23, 2014 at 8:03 PM

Monday morning quarterbacking the 2012 elections i see. 99% of the posters on this blog predicted a Romney win.

loveofcountry on March 23, 2014 at 6:12 PM

And minus the voter fraud, he did win.

yaedon on March 23, 2014 at 8:04 PM

I’m glad many agree we to stop supporting talent-less loons because they are really good at doing nothing but talking about how principled they are even though they have never governed anything effectively.

swamp_yankee on March 23, 2014 at 6:12 PM

You’re talking about Obama, right?

yaedon on March 23, 2014 at 8:05 PM

Does it make you feel better to sit around whimpering

Midas on March 23, 2014 at 8:03 PM

Prove it – or shut it.

Flora Duh on March 23, 2014 at 8:10 PM

I think the amnesty push will be even greater if the GOP takes the senate.
tcufrog on March 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Absolutely right. In fact, look for perverse results across the board if they retake it. I’m hoping they don’t — not until 2016 under a President Cruz. And then he can do what Reagan did — pressure these tools to support his agenda.

rrpjr on March 23, 2014 at 8:14 PM

A 51 seat majority would not last long. Republicans have too many regressive’s in the party that can be persuaded to change sides. Then again, they might not change sides just for the fact that the wind is in the wrong direction, but I would not count on that being the case.

astonerii on March 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

I’m not sure about that. Historically, our party-switchers were Blue state RINOs like Arlen Specter, Jim Jeffords, and Lincoln Chafee. We really don’t have any of those left and we’re down to Red state RINOs like McCain and Graham. But neither are likely to change parties because their voters would throw them out on their ear if they did.

I think the more interesting scenario would be if there was a 50-50 split in the Senate. Would the GOP be able to persuade a Red state Democrat to switch parties? It has happened before.

Outlander on March 23, 2014 at 8:34 PM

Why do we pay attention to Nate Silver with his all-white, all-male staff at “538″ anyway? Aren’t we supposed to reject racist misogynists?

In the event of a 50-50 Senate, Manchin of WV would be the most likely candidate to switch to the GOP. He’s not up again until 2018, but the state has left his party behind for good now.

More whining about Lindsey Graham? I’ve told people for at least two cycles now they needed to find a candidate early and raise $2 million to have a chance in a primary. Neither is easy to do, certainly not as easy as sitting on your butt whining and complaining, which seems to be a specialty among the Purity Police.

Adjoran on March 23, 2014 at 8:50 PM

astonerii

You supported the Romney guy from your first post on this site. The guy who refused to fight to win the general election.

Started out supporting Bachman, sooo…

You argue that as voters we do not own our votes, that whoever the GOP candidate is automatically owns our vote.

Perhaps you can link to where I argued that.

That makes the votes worthless with respect to controlling the politicians in office

So the logical thing to do, even assuming your mischaracterization of my position was correct, would be to follow your advice and vote for Obama. Nope. There is no one who you haven’t called a RINO at this point. You are just here to elect democrats.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 9:14 PM

I see that a lot of you are starting to be honest; you’re not Republicans. You’re haters who oppose everyone and everything, wanting the world to be as miserable as you.
BrianJ on March 23, 2014 at 7:29 PM

Pretty much.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 9:17 PM

xblade

It would be if it were true. Sadly, it’s going to be someone who supports amnesty and open borders basically, which makes them as big a traitor as any democrat.

The GOP has stopped a coordinated, well funded amnesty push twice. Mostly because their constituants rang their phones off the wall. That’s what happens when the right actually gets involved instead of staying home and complaining on the web.

And if Hillary ran as a republican, you’d say we have to vote for her because she’s a republican, and winning is all that matters.

As long as we are putting words into each others mouth you would say that we should vote for Hillary because you haven’t seen such a sexy, sweaty upper lip since you dreamt of kissing Nixon.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 9:25 PM

I’m just waiting for dear old Ruth to retire so Obama can pick a super left wing decoy candidate that the Republican Senate will shoot down and get to act all tough only to have the three or four usual conservative backstabbers (with McConnell’s implicit backing as he will allow it to come to the floor, unlike Reid) vote for Obama’s real (moderate, of course in name only) nominee to the Supreme Court.

And amnesty. Can’t wait for THAT!

The GOP will only have to negotiate with Obama who is fine with tougher border security and tougher interior enforcement. He just won’t enforce it like every modern president. The lefty base will scream and cry and gnash teeth, but Obama and the Democrats will ultimately get amnesty. And the GOP will get Chamber of Crony Capitalism money and will feel good about not hating on brown people.

See Renee Elmers (who went off the deep end amnesty style), Marco Rubio, and every other GOP traitor in office.

NWConservative on March 23, 2014 at 9:29 PM

The GOP has stopped a coordinated, well funded amnesty push twice. Mostly because their constituants rang their phones off the wall. That’s what happens when the right actually gets involved instead of staying home and complaining on the web.

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 9:25 PM

The GOP did that? The GOP was pushing for it until the base stopped them (momentarily).

Amnesty is the issue the elites in both parties want for different reasons. The GOP elites are especially tone deaf when it comes to this issue because the base of the party does not want amnesty. Yet like necromancers, they keep raising the amnesty issue back from the dead over and over and over again.

I am tired of fighting over this issue. This is the red line for me. If any amnesty passes with GOP support, I am done with this party for good.

NWConservative on March 23, 2014 at 9:34 PM

If Ms. Graham wins the nomination, & likely will, I won’t be voting in November.
I’ve made a promise to myself never to vote for a liberal republican again.
& I’m not alone.

http://charlestonteaparty.org/why-i-will-not-vote-for-lindsey-graham-in-the-2014-primary/

Belle on March 23, 2014 at 9:37 PM

V7: Did you miss Ryan bringing up amnesty again? Too many liberal republicans now support amnesty.

“We don’t have the votes right now,” he said. “Right now, we’re working hard to find where that consensus lies.”

Yep, bought & paid for.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/13/Paul-Ryan-Don-t-Have-Votes-Right-Now-for-Amnesty

Belle on March 23, 2014 at 9:41 PM

V7: Did you miss Ryan bringing up amnesty again? Too many liberal republicans now support amnesty.

“We don’t have the votes right now,” he said. “Right now, we’re working hard to find where that consensus lies.”

Yep, bought & paid for.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/13/Paul-Ryan-Don-t-Have-Votes-Right-Now-for-Amnesty

Belle on March 23, 2014 at 9:41 PM

They are just saying that now. If I were to bet, they will try to pass amnesty during the lame duck session right after the elections. That would put them two years away from an election and will give them more than enough time to whittle down the anger of the base and Americans in general.

That way, they can get the issue “past them” for the 2016 elections to get a republican in the White House. The problem for them is that it will turn the entire country into California and we get a generation of Democrats.

People who think like Paul Ryan are evil and stupid. The worst combination.

NWConservative on March 23, 2014 at 9:49 PM

I see that a lot of you are starting to be honest; you’re not Republicans. You’re haters who oppose everyone and everything, wanting the world to be as miserable as you.

The Quitter’s endorsement is wonderful news for Shane Osborn.

BrianJ on March 23, 2014 at 7:29 PM

1. More and more conservatives DO NOT consider themselves Republican. I have always, ALWAYS voted Republican, and there was a time when I considered myself a Republican. I now realize that I am a libertarian conservative. If a Republican wants my vote, then he/she must earn it by representing my values better than the other candidates.

2. Supposed Republicans or conservatives like astonerii who vote for liberals/socialists/statists like Obama are not Republican OR conservative. V7_Sport has that one pegged: a Democrat plant. True conservatives would NEVER vote for the greater of two evils just to spite the lesser of two evils. Voting for a third party candidate that better represents our values or voting for a write-in are the ONLY options for conservatives. Refusing to vote is almost as bad as voting for a liberal/socialist/statist.

3. We are not “haters who oppose everyone and everything.” I believe that most conservatives love their fellow person as much or more than the average liberal, but conservatives have a much better idea of how to help a fellow person than liberals. We oppose seemingly well-intentioned ideas/policies/laws that at best superficially help people when they actually undermine and restrict a person’s liberty and dignity.

4. I am not miserable, nor do I wish others to be miserable. Perhaps that is a bit of projection?

5. Calling Palin “The Quitter” tells me quite a bit about where you really stand in the fight for this country’s future. She’s not perfect, but she reasoned that resigning the governorship was the best thing for her state. When most politicians resign, it’s because that’s the best thing for his/her PARTY. To resign when you believe that to be the right thing for your state or country is admirable, not deplorable.

yaedon on March 23, 2014 at 9:57 PM

V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 9:17 PM

You just became bosom buddies with a libtard troll, congrats. Should tell you all you need to know.

yaedon on March 23, 2014 at 9:57 PM

You’re responding to a libtard troll. It doesn’t know the first thing about conservatives. It just regurgitates whatever it’s master tells it to.

HumpBot Salvation on March 23, 2014 at 10:57 PM

The Obama presidency will finally be effectively over if the GOP gets control of the senate. His failure will be complete. (Sadly, then we can look forward to hearing how we need to vote for Hillary Clinton out of conservative principles or something…)
V7_Sport on March 23, 2014 at 5:19 PM

That’s the line Rove, Boehner, McConnell, Ryan and the rest of the GOPe uses.

No, the presidency will be effectively over only if conservatives get control. Until then it’s only decline at varying speeds depending on who’s calling the shots. How different voters cope with that recognition of fact is entirely up to them regarding whom to vote for or to vote against. That’s what makes the grand experiment. In spite of a two party system, a voter’s opition is not binary. Only the low thinking voters believe it’s binary.

I think at this point the only way forward out of this morass is a constitutional convention because the DC crowd simply won’t do anything to halt the decline, save cashing in and parachuting out.

AH_C on March 24, 2014 at 1:05 AM

NWConservative

The GOP did that? The GOP was pushing for it until the base stopped them (momentarily).

No, there were a few idiots who were pushing it, the base rallied and stopped it. How far do you get when you call up a democrat and tell them to stop something?

The GOP elites are especially tone deaf when it comes to this issue because the base of the party does not want amnesty

Elites?

I am tired of fighting over this issue. This is the red line for me. If any amnesty passes with GOP support, I am done with this party for good.

Join NumbersUSA and participate in the action steps. Calls to democrats fall on def ears because they know that legalizing immigrants means more democrats.

V7_Sport on March 24, 2014 at 1:08 AM

let’s go rogue…
instead of pasting comments here to the (mostly true) chorus…let’s go on HuffPo and Daily Kos and sow disillusionment about the dhimmis…encourage them to vote Green or Nader…
we can divide and conquer too!

wholefoodsrepublican on March 24, 2014 at 1:10 AM

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