2013 Q4 GDP drops from 3.2% to 2.4% in new estimate

posted at 9:21 am on February 28, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

There are adjustments, and then there are adjustments. The difference between the advance and interim  GDP estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis qualifies as the latter. Instead of a moderate-growth annualized rate of 3.2% as reported last month, the economy only grew at the stagnation level of 2.4%:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent. With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, an increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was smaller than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

So consumer activity didn’t rebound as well as Commerce first estimated after all. Real gross domestic purchases only rose 1.8% in the fourth quarter, and the estimation of growth outside of inventory expansion (real final sales of domestic product) rose only 2.3% — down from the initial estimate of 2.8%. That means that a significant part of the drop came in a decline in actual growth, and not just a misunderstanding over inventory. That’s a big miss by the BEA from its initial estimate.

The New York Times notes the “disappointing” results:

The economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2013 than first thought, weighed down by disappointing retail sales, inventory adjustments and a less robust trade balance.

The Commerce Department said Friday it now estimates the economy grew by 2.4 percent in October, November and December, down from an initial estimate of 3.2 percent released on Jan. 30.

Economists had been expecting the government to revise the estimated rate of growth downward to 2.5 percent.

At 2.4 percent, the revised figure represents a substantial slowing from the pace of growth in the third quarter, 4.1 percent.

The NYT report talks about a “burst of optimism” last year being at risk. What optimism was that? The GDP growth for all of 2013 was 1.9%, which was lower than 2012′s 2.8%. The previous year had one decent quarter in Q3 of 4.1% annualized growth rate, and even that quarter only had a 2.5% annualized growth rate in real final sales of domestic product. That’s barely above projected growth levels for this year.

Reuters has more:

Consumer spending accounted for a large chunk of the revision after retail sales in November and December came in weaker than assumed.

Consumer spending was cut to a 2.6 percent rate, still the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2012. It had previously been reported to have grown at a 3.3 percent pace. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, contributed 1.73 percentage points to GDP growth, down from the previously reported 2.26 percentage points.

As a result, final domestic demand was lowered two-tenths of a percentage point to a 1.2 percent rate. The loss of momentum appears to have spilled over into in the first quarter of 2014, with an unusually cold winter weighing on retail sales, home building and sales, hiring and industrial production.

Weather will be a factor in 2014 Q1, but it wasn’t in 2013 Q4. The economy was stagnating well before the polar vortices arrived, and has been ever since the June 2009 technical recovery. This is just more of the same.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Those numbers are LIES against The Dear Leader!!

WannabeAnglican on February 28, 2014 at 9:23 AM

And these are the Boom Times compared to what’s coming under Dick-Tater Ogabe.

ConstantineXI on February 28, 2014 at 9:24 AM

At what point in the past 5 years has the economy been anything, but disappointing? Well, we have “free” insurance now and really don’t have to work, correct?

hip shot on February 28, 2014 at 9:26 AM

It’s strange. You would think that random estimating errors wouldn’t be high 20 quarters in a row.

Just one of those weird, quirky, statistical outliers, I’m sure.

makattak on February 28, 2014 at 9:27 AM

Lie First..correct later…or not.

The obama…way.

HumpBot Salvation on February 28, 2014 at 9:27 AM

But just remember. Porkulus was a complete success. And those Obamacare horror stories are all lies.

Doughboy on February 28, 2014 at 9:28 AM

The end is nye.

celtic warrior on February 28, 2014 at 9:28 AM

“UNEXPECTED”

Mini-14 on February 28, 2014 at 9:29 AM

The end is nye.

celtic warrior on February 28, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Bill Nye?

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 9:30 AM

Well, it isn’t really Friday without the picture of a giant screw.

This is when I miss the trolls telling us that recovery is just around the corner. Because this is just another indicator that the rat-eared wonder has lost all credibilty in the nation and throughout the world. This massive correction from the lies told last month isn’t “disappointing news” it is proof that Obama and his filthy administration is killing this nation slowly.

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 9:31 AM

With numbers like this we need to import some more workers.

Bmore on February 28, 2014 at 9:34 AM

Spot on hbs

cmsinaz on February 28, 2014 at 9:34 AM

Well, it isn’t really Friday without the picture of a giant screw.

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 9:31 AM

Dude…now I have coffee on the keyboard…

workingclass artist on February 28, 2014 at 9:35 AM

With numbers like this we need to import some more workers.

Bmore on February 28, 2014 at 9:34 AM

Of course.

Prepare for the humanitarian dumping…

workingclass artist on February 28, 2014 at 9:36 AM

Not to worry, another sumer of recovery is right around the corner.

unwantedinN.Y.

jmtham156 on February 28, 2014 at 9:36 AM

Just like global warming disaster is always just over the horizon, so is economic revival.

You couldn’t script this disaster any worse than its been.

Bishop on February 28, 2014 at 9:37 AM

When do start seeing GDP stated as 2.4% +/-25%?

Flange on February 28, 2014 at 9:37 AM

The earlier stat was “recovering from injuries at home.”

The latest stat is “in ICU in stable but critical condition.”

platypus on February 28, 2014 at 9:37 AM

it’s still positive though…

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM

Imagine that; numbers that were known to be bullshit at the time, being revised downwards.

There’s nothing these people report – even these revisions – that are really worthy of consideration as ‘reality’.

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Just a Child.

Bmore on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Now work in the truth that the inflation numbers are all pure bull crap.

Inflation is more like 4% or higher.

So in fact it is negative growth.

But never mind, the loon liberals are all about getting the right to smoke dope in every state in the U.S., they are all about redistribution of wealth via faked up computer models, they are all about big government control over health care, they are all about the dismantling of the Army, Navy, Air Force, etal, they are all about keeping the Mexican border wide open, they are all about making sure all Americans are forced by the rule of law to be cool with all the unnatural acts they have fetches about, and to stand at attention with King Obama comes on TV and lies about it all.

We must say NO, and act upon it now.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

it’s still positive though…

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM

it’s still non-credible bullshit though…

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

The recession ended June 2009. 56 months ago.

We’ve been in the weakest economic recovery since the Second World War. No recovery since then has been this stagnant or this anemic. In fact, it can be termed only technically a ‘recovery’ simply because we’ve had weak positive growth in the GDP, and have not fallen back into what would be technically termed as a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative growth).

This type of economy has not been seen since the 1930′s when FDR’s policies to ‘end’ the Great Depression led to weak growth before falling back into another recession in 1938.

Between 1933 and 1939, Federal government expenditures tripled, yet were unable to pull the nation out of it’s economic malaise. We’re in a similar boat, making the same mistakes with this Administration’s desire to ‘end austerity’, increase spending, it’s anti-business tax and regulatory policies discouraging hiring and business expansion. All of this is being done in the politically expedient and vapid names of ‘social justice’, ‘fairness’, ‘income equality’, and ‘wealth redistribution’.

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Don’t worry… With ObamaCare now in full swing, I’m sure those millions of new jobs that it will create are being created even as we speak – Nancy said so.

climbnjump on February 28, 2014 at 9:40 AM

I just posted this on a headline thread:

……………………………………………….
Speak of the Devil, looks like things are shaping up

The Washington Times Thursday, October 25, 2012

MEANS: U.S. economy on schedule to crash March 4, 2014

At a certain point, soon, the United States will reach a level of deficit spending and debt at which the countries of the world will lose faith in America and begin to withdraw their investments.

When might this all happen? Paul Volker indicates we might face a mess like this in the next year and a half.

David Walker, former U.S. comptroller, i.e., the former chief accountant of the U.S. government, has suggested similar time frames for economic catastrophe.

Obamacare was signed into law March 23, 2010, so we can assume these smart economists had an inkling of how that law would effect the economy.

Although, they might not have been aware of the gimmick intentionally written into the law that forced businesses to cut employees to part time, to compete with anyone else who had already cut to part time.

Since Obamacare was created under guidance of Soros think tanks, there is no way the economic effect of that single mandate would be anything but intentional by the authors

Gee, where is Soros on puts, lately?
(entagor on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM)

entagor on February 28, 2014 at 9:43 AM

That evil George Bush really fouled things up way back when … no one has yet solved his riddles. What an evil genius! Poor Obama, sigh.

steveracer on February 28, 2014 at 9:43 AM

The recession ended June 2009. 56 months ago.

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

Doesn’t that ‘fact’ depend upon an evaluation of certain economic indicators and statistics? The ones that have been proven to be false, virtually every month, without exception, during that time frame?

Is there any reason whatsoever to believe the ones being used to officially state that the recession ended June 2009? I mean, beyond blind religious faith in liberalism, Obama, unicorns and fairy dust?

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:44 AM

Well, the good news is that consumer spending for health care will show a spike in Q1; so we’ve got that going for us.

BKeyser on February 28, 2014 at 9:44 AM

it’s still positive though…

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM

Wow, those goalposts must be getting pretty heavy after 5 years of carrying them.

makattak on February 28, 2014 at 9:44 AM

Gee, where is Soros on puts, lately?
(entagor on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM)

entagor on February 28, 2014 at 9:43 AM

I have no doubt he’s gunning for destruction of the US economy/dollar as his lifelong crowning achievement.

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:45 AM

I just wonder if 4 years from now with a Repub President and unemployment at 5% will the press say we are recovering from the Obama years or that we are suffering from an unprecedented recession.

tim c on February 28, 2014 at 9:46 AM

Why go through all this song and dance, lying about numbers one quarter, and correcting them subsequent? The economy is what Bark says it is, period. We could have 20% inflation with depression level unemployment and King Putt will say at least it’s better now than under Bush, and if you disagree you’re a racist, so shut up. It’s not like the Fourth Estate’s going to call him out for lying.

Thomas More on February 28, 2014 at 9:48 AM

There was a “recovery”?

GarandFan on February 28, 2014 at 9:48 AM

The US economy is “positive” only because the dollar is extremely weak and allows exports; the fed continues printing money and the banks pump into the stock market. This is a false economy based on smoke and vapor.

Obamacare and increased taxes will slowly choke off what is left of productivity and the whole pile of dung comes crashing down.

hip shot on February 28, 2014 at 9:50 AM

Who is making money off the Obama lies?
One month lie about how good the economy is…stocks shoot up…except for those in the know that went “short” on the stock market…

albill on February 28, 2014 at 9:51 AM

it’s still non-credible bullshit though…

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

really, are you a trained economist sir?

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

Democrat Party rule =’s Random acts voted in by kooks to make loon liberals feel good about random fetches.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

Let’s face it, Consumer spending has to increase to some degree to cover the stealth inflation of the US Dollar by the Fed and QE Infinity. All things being equal we most likely are in a period of deflation right now with the only thing propping up *growth* is the Fed and QE devaluing the dollar here in the US.

Johnnyreb on February 28, 2014 at 9:54 AM

it’s still positive though…

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM

Snow day at Harvard Law Elementary School?

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 9:54 AM

it’s still positive though…

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM

Hey, just think if we had more illegals how “positive”
it would be?? According to Alex Sink (D), FLorida,
who’s going to cut our grass, and do our landscaping??

ToddPA on February 28, 2014 at 9:56 AM

really, are you a trained economist sir?

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

Why don’t you hit us with some of your legal thinking on this matter, Mr. Harvard Law grad.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 9:57 AM

You know it’s coming. The 2014 Q3 numbers will be twisted and crunched into the bestest numbers evah.

Unemployment: 4.9%
GDP: 6.0%
ACA enrollment: 15,000,000

Hey, they’re only numbers, meant to be manipulated positively pre-elections and revised negatively post elections. They don’t call this the lawless administration because their honest.

fogw on February 28, 2014 at 9:57 AM

Unexpectedly. MSM’s line for last 5 years!

nobama1267 on February 28, 2014 at 9:57 AM

NOW I get it. Polar vortices are a vast right wing conspiracy waged to keep the economy down and make O’ look like a clueless, feckless demagogue. Oh, wait…

vnvet on February 28, 2014 at 9:58 AM

so

APACHEWHOKNOWS on February 28, 2014 at 9:58 AM

Hey, just think if we had more illegals how “positive”
it would be?? According to Alex Sink (D), FLorida,
who’s going to cut our grass, and do our landscaping??

ToddPA on February 28, 2014 at 9:56 AM

Harvard grads.

HumpBot Salvation on February 28, 2014 at 9:58 AM

Just imagine where the GDP would be if it weren’t for the hated shale revolution.
The EPA and enviromentalist need to be stopped in their overreach.

plutorocks on February 28, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Why don’t you hit us with some of your legal thinking on this matter, Mr. Harvard Law grad.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 9:57 AM

the fact that you’re so obsessed with my academic credentials indicates to me that

a) you’re highly insecure about your own academic acumen (or lack thereof)

b) to mask your poor pedigree, you choose to mock mine

sad, really

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Is the screw conveyor, in the photo, from a shutdown ethanol plant?

Kermit on February 28, 2014 at 10:01 AM

the fact that you’re so obsessed with my academic credentials indicates to me that

a) you’re highly insecure about your own academic acumen (or lack thereof)

b) to mask your poor pedigree, you choose to mock mine

sad, really

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:59 AM

You funny.

pedigree? How did you place at Westminster this year?

HumpBot Salvation on February 28, 2014 at 10:02 AM

One month lie about how good the economy is…stocks shoot up…except for those in the know that went “short” on the stock market…

albill on February 28, 2014 at 9:51 AM

Huh?

Good economy + stocks up + selling short = losing money

There goes the five bucks you invested in the market.

fogw on February 28, 2014 at 10:04 AM

the fact that you’re so obsessed with my academic credentials indicates to me that

a) you’re highly insecure about your own academic acumen (or lack thereof)

b) to mask your poor pedigree, you choose to mock mine

sad, really

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:59 AM

Even the other trolls were laughing at the idea you went to Harvard.

Personally, I don’t think you even have a GED.

Chuck Schick on February 28, 2014 at 10:05 AM

the fact that you’re so obsessed with my academic credentials indicates to me that

a) you’re highly insecure about your own academic acumen (or lack thereof)

b) to mask your poor pedigree, you choose to mock mine

sad, really

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:59 AM

It is sad, isn’t it? Why don’t you shame me some more with some deep legalizing talk you picked up from Harvard Law.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 10:05 AM

I just wonder if 4 years from now with a Repub President and unemployment at 5% will the press say we are recovering from the Obama years or that we are suffering from an unprecedented recession.

tim c on February 28, 2014 at 9:46 AM

If the economy recovers and unemployment is down to 5% the media will suddenly decide to focus on something else. Gay wedding cake maybe or the need for illegals in the labor force. The media will never give a Republican credit for positive economic news but all the blame for negative news.

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 10:07 AM

Unexpectedly, no doubt. Time to get the head out of the sand or other dark places.

COgirl on February 28, 2014 at 10:07 AM

It is sad, isn’t it? Why don’t you shame me some more with some deep legalizing talk you picked up from Harvard Law.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 10:05 AM

you need to stop…the ivy envy is starting to wear thin

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:08 AM

There was a “recovery”?

GarandFan on February 28, 2014 at 9:48 AM

We had a whole “Recovery Summer,” don’t you remember?

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 10:09 AM

Poor, poor Child.

Bmore on February 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM

Well, it isn’t really Friday without the picture of a giant screw.

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 9:31 AM

Thread winner, right there IMHO.

it’s still positive though…

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:38 AM

How are you set for bridges? I have an excellent deal for you.

dogsoldier on February 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM

it’s still non-credible bullshit though…

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

really, are you a trained economist sir?

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

My profession and experience includes quite a bit of economics, yes.

Yours, Mr. “it’s still positive though…”?

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM

We had a whole “Recovery Summer,” don’t you remember?

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 10:09 AM

There were amazing parties and celebrations throughout the nation! /s

dogsoldier on February 28, 2014 at 10:12 AM

you need to stop…the ivy envy is starting to wear thin

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:08 AM

I know, right? Shut me up once and for all with a serious legal throwdown of legal verbiage you learned at Harvard Law.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 10:12 AM

I know, right? Shut me up once and for all with a serious legal throwdown of legal verbiage you learned at Harvard Law.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 10:12 AM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM

How many times must we post that the political stats put out by the government are just that? They are FAKE. They are fraudulent. They are lies crafted to provide political cover. Unless a republican is in the White House.

Then the media and the trolls scream “DEPRESSION!” as they did when W was in office.

dogsoldier on February 28, 2014 at 10:15 AM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

Says Mickey.

fogw on February 28, 2014 at 10:16 AM

LOL, goodness. nonp exploring new levels of unwarranted self-importance, I see.

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 10:17 AM

How many times must we post that the political stats put out by the government are just that? They are FAKE. They are fraudulent. They are lies crafted to provide political cover. Unless a republican is in the White House.

Then the media and the trolls scream “DEPRESSION!” as they did when W was in office.

dogsoldier on February 28, 2014 at 10:15 AM

A million more times, and it still won’t matter to the true believers.

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 10:18 AM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

A lion! Is that anything like a non-lethal skeet shooter?

Never once have you made a post with any legal analysis. Rather curious for a Harvard Law grad, don’t you think? And that lion, mice thing seems rather disingenuous as well after attempting to shame me with your previous posts.

Come on nonintelligent, show us your legal chops!

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 10:18 AM

Hey, it’s all good. I’m watching CNBC and they’re telling me it’s just headwinds and the economy is ripe for recovery. They need to tell that to my bank account, what’s left of it.

Kimberino on February 28, 2014 at 10:20 AM

Come on nonintelligent, show us your legal chops!

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 10:18 AM

I’m rather interested in it’s financial/economics credentials, since it’s overly eager to disparage those of people it doesn’t know.

Actually, I’m not really interested; I know it’s full of shit, as well documented here over time.

Moving on, not indulging the trolls any further.

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM

dogsoldier on February 28, 2014 at 10:15 AM

June 2009 was deep in the excitement of ‘Hope and Change’ as well as the start of the decades of progressive control of the Federal Government, they didn’t need to cook the books then.

We had a whole “Recovery Summer,” don’t you remember?

Happy Nomad on February 28, 2014 at 10:09 AM

Ah, the hope and change of the summer of 2010…. and about when the Administration started to realize that not only could they cook the books, but when that Recovery Summer was a bust, and they were trounced in November 2010, they had to start cooking the books.

Let’s not forget the ethical and intellectual bankruptcy of most of the lapdog media for facilitating and covering the cooking of the books. Or the GOP leadership (yes, that’s an oxymoron), fecklessly refusing to challenge the books being cooked – and other lies of the Administration.

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 10:31 AM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

A lion? Based on your track record, I’d have thought you were far closer in resemblance to the mascot of the Democrat Party – a jackass.

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 10:34 AM

There is a lot to admire in the American system of government (when the checks and balances are being properly enforced, that is), but it’s times like these when I wonder if the US could benefit from a feature of the Westminster parliamentary tradition of Question Period. The government is separate from the House of Commons, and is only the government when it “enjoys the confidence of the House” (love that phrase!). To earn that confidence, the government must, among other things, submit itself to Question Period on a regular basis, during which the members of the House pepper the Cabinet ministers (including the Prime Minister) with questions about the topics of the day. When caught squirming and prevaricating when faced with tough questions like “Why is the economic recovery so poor?!” (along with a bunch of statistics), an unprepared minister can be guaranteed a top spot on the evening newscasts. Doubly so if the Prime Minister can’t deal with the question and show that he can think on his feet. Who doesn’t think the American people, on all points along the political spectrum, would benefit from watching the US cabinet, from the President on down, getting quizzed, regularly, like this? Even low-information voters could start to make semi-informed judgments from watching. Of course, Barack Obama could never have become Prime Minister in a Westminster country — he is incapable of thinking on this feet and is a poor speaker when denied access to a teleprompter and a speech written by professionals. His sort is quickly filtered out by a British/Canadian/Australian/etc political party as having no future beyond that of a backbencher.

SteveJ on February 28, 2014 at 10:35 AM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

A foreign troll. No American uses lion analogies.

kevinkristy on February 28, 2014 at 10:38 AM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

Sorry, normally I won’t bother quoting you. But this, this is comedy gold! Lolz!

Bmore on February 28, 2014 at 10:39 AM

Just a cub. Lolz!

Bmore on February 28, 2014 at 10:41 AM

really, are you a trained economist sir?

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

Nope, but my education did include a substantial amount of physics which necessitated a firm grasp of Bayesian inference. Which as a consequence results in even the most cursory examination of your assertions indicating a lack of the most basic grasp of logic on your part.

oscarwilde on February 28, 2014 at 10:45 AM

…funny…how that ALWAYS happens!

KOOLAID2 on February 28, 2014 at 10:54 AM

But…But…But… OCare has broken my life-long cycle of “Job Lock”.
So there’s that.

Seriously – how many idiots for this guy again?

Pelosi Schmelosi on February 28, 2014 at 11:00 AM

really, are you a trained economist sir?

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

You always did have trouble with numbers, didn’t you?

your risk of being raped is less serious in the grand scheme of things than innocents being killed in a gun massacre

nonpartisan on February 12, 2014 at 10:32 PM

How many women were forcibly raped last year?

How many people were killed in “gun massacres” last year?

Alien on February 12, 2014 at 10:43 PM

one death is worth more than 10 rapes

nonpartisan on February 12, 2014 at 10:44 PM

Alien on February 28, 2014 at 11:05 AM

it’s still non-credible bullshit though…

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

really, are you a trained economist like my Heroin, Paul Krugman?

nonintelligent on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

Fixed.

Shooting your mouth off with rubber bullets again, I see.

Del Dolemonte on February 28, 2014 at 11:07 AM

2013 Q4 GDP drops from 3.2% to 2.4% in new estimate

It doesn’t sound like a big difference superficially, which will be enough to make low-information voters shrug their shoulders and say, “hey, the economy’s getting better.”

But the analysis is exactly right. Once you look at it in more depth, that seemingly minor difference is huge. It’s all the difference between growth and flatlining.

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:14 AM

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:14 AM

2.4% is still growth

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 11:15 AM

The end is nye.

celtic warrior on February 28, 2014 at 9:28 AM

Bill Nye?

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 9:30 AM

Seems to me I heard somebody calling him some kind of an end….

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:15 AM

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:14 AM

2.4% is still growth-Paul Krugman tells me so!

nonintelligent on February 28, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Del Dolemonte on February 28, 2014 at 11:21 AM

It doesn’t sound like a big difference superficially, which will be enough to make low-information voters shrug their shoulders and say, “hey, the economy’s getting better.”

But the analysis is exactly right. Once you look at it in more depth, that seemingly minor difference is huge. It’s all the difference between growth and flatlining.

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:14 AM

2.4% is still growth

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Fulfilling what I said about the low-information voters.

Are you sure you’re not somebody’s sock puppet just playing dumb? Hard to believe you could really walk right into that.

The population is always growing, so you always expect the economy to be growing slightly. If the growth in the economy doesn’t keep up with population growth, then it’s actually shrinking. It’s the same thing as getting a 2 percent yearly raise when inflation grows at 8%. You may be technically getting 2% more money, but you’re actually getting 6% less. A few years of that, and you’re less able to make ends meet than ever before.

But the economy did a little growing last year in preparation for an expectation of growth to come. Since the economy didn’t grow like they were hoping, some of that expansion will now contract.

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:23 AM

And the weakest economic recovery since the Second World War (69 years) is just that. That fact cannot be spun away or ignored.

Not only that, but we’re 57 months after a ‘one-time stimulus’ bill was passed at the insistence of the Administration which promised by the end of 2013 4.5% or more economic growth being standard and 5% unemployment rates.

Not only was that stimulus not just a one-time spending boost, but the promises of economic ‘recovery’ are about as valid as ‘if you like your insurance plan, you can keep your insurance plan’.

Finally, with the demonstrated willingness of this Administration to lie in the name of political expediency and cook the books, how do we really know the growth rate was as ‘robust’ as 2.4%? Just how much credibility does this Administration have left? (About as much as you it seems…)

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 11:29 AM

2.4% is still growth

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 11:15 AM

And a Harvard Law grad still is terrified of discussing law.

NotCoach on February 28, 2014 at 11:32 AM

The recession ended June 2009. 56 months ago.

We’ve been in the weakest economic recovery since the Second World War. No recovery since then has been this stagnant or this anemic. In fact, it can be termed only technically a ‘recovery’ simply because we’ve had weak positive growth in the GDP, and have not fallen back into what would be technically termed as a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative growth).

This type of economy has not been seen since the 1930′s when FDR’s policies to ‘end’ the Great Depression led to weak growth before falling back into another recession in 1938.

Between 1933 and 1939, Federal government expenditures tripled, yet were unable to pull the nation out of it’s economic malaise. We’re in a similar boat, making the same mistakes with this Administration’s desire to ‘end austerity’, increase spending, it’s anti-business tax and regulatory policies discouraging hiring and business expansion. All of this is being done in the politically expedient and vapid names of ‘social justice’, ‘fairness’, ‘income equality’, and ‘wealth redistribution’.

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

This is exactly the right historical parallel. I remember when the Great Depression was claimed to be a failure of capitalism. If you actually study what happened, the crash was real, but the Depression was entirely man-made, caused by trying to use the government to fix the economy.

Back then, Keynesian economics was a new idea. Now, it’s old and discredited. But since it justifies big government spending for big government spenders, they can’t resist the catnip.

The current stagnation is caused by the government, just like the Depression was.

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 28, 2014 at 11:33 AM

Just like global warming disaster is always just over the horizon, so is economic revival.

You couldn’t script this disaster any worse than its been.

Bishop on February 28, 2014 at 9:37 AM

.
You must not be paying ANY attention to the posts by Steve Eggleston, myself or several others.

This disaster has been nothing BUT scripted so far – The SCOAMF liars read their lines, the Kneepad Media reports the lies in their lines, the GOPe “tut-tuts” and says their lines and the GOPe-media adds their “cherry of disapproval” on top.

The economy was stagnating well before the polar vortices arrived, and has been ever since the June 2009 technical recovery. This is just more of the same.

.
The Q4 contraction in consumer spending is just the beginning of the economic disaster from Obamacare we’ve been predicting since spring of last year.

And how are the markets reacting to a massive downward revision of Q4 GDP and Russia invading Ukraine?

They are running their daily HFT algo scripts pushing prices UP because the SCRIPT says the Federal Reserve will NEVER let them go down again.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the commenters on this economic post are worthless “back and forth” with a troll paid by Obama to distract people from DOING something like calling the representatives and expressing their anger.

PolAgnostic on February 28, 2014 at 11:35 AM

That is truly sad. I had hopes that we were finally going to see some legitimately good economic news. Instead, we are just continuing to grind on. Welcome to the new normal.

MJBrutus on February 28, 2014 at 11:36 AM

Those numbers are LIES against The Dear Leader!!

WannabeAnglican on February 28, 2014 at 9:23 AM

Careful there;

Don Lemon: ‘As a Journalist You Weigh How Much to Criticize Obama Because He’s Black’

slickwillie2001 on February 28, 2014 at 11:56 AM

it’s still non-credible bullshit though…

Midas on February 28, 2014 at 9:39 AM

really, are you a trained economist sir?

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 9:53 AM

I am. What’s worrisome is the fourth quarter is usually the strongest quarter due to Christmas (are we allowed to called it that?) spending. So yes, the economy still sucks.

monalisa on February 28, 2014 at 12:09 PM

2.4% is still growth

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Is that the game? Verbiage?

Do you really think it helps Americans forget that their income and job opportunities have been historically miserable under Obama?

Do you not know this or do you not care?

Chuck Schick on February 28, 2014 at 12:17 PM

I don’t suppose businesses can sue over the faulty numbers?

Think of a company trying to decide how much product to create for their inventory. They look at the government stats and see the economy turning around. They fill their warehouse, only to find that the stats were fixed to make the economy look better than it is (we don’t actually think they were off by 0.8% accidentally, do we?) The company is left with the expense of creating and storing the inventory, which they can’t sell because no one is buying.

If the stats came from a private entity, they could have a fraud suit.

HakerA on February 28, 2014 at 12:18 PM

a lion does not toy with mice

nonpartisan on February 28, 2014 at 10:14 AM

A lion? Based on your track record, I’d have thought you were far closer in resemblance to the mascot of the Democrat Party – a jackass.

Athos on February 28, 2014 at 10:34 AM

…and the back end of the jackass at that.

slickwillie2001 on February 28, 2014 at 12:26 PM

Don’t ignore this.

Schadenfreude on February 28, 2014 at 12:43 PM

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