Roll Call whip count: 19 Republicans support leadership’s immigration principles

posted at 11:21 am on February 25, 2014 by Allahpundit

Glass half-full or glass half-empty? Roll Call thinks this is good news for amnesty opponents since, after all, 19 is a paltry fraction of a caucus in which every major figure in the leadership is onboard. Your friendly neighborhood eeyorepundit naturally sees things differently: If Democrats vote unanimously in favor, that’s 199 Dems plus 19 Republicans — i.e. 218, an amnesty majority.

Coincidentally, Boehner and Obama are huddling this morning on topics various and sundry. Dude, I’m nervous. A little.

The tally found 19 backing leadership’s standards, two more who said “possibly yes,” 30 Republicans openly opposing the principles, 22 who refused to say and 25 who were undecided. Three others had nuanced responses. The other 131 did not respond to calls or emails over a two-week period.

Given the number of Republicans who declined to answer or wouldn’t give a binary response, it’s possible Republicans see support for the broadly worded principles as a proxy for supporting an immigration overhaul this year. But with such a seeming dearth of support, the likelihood Republicans could move legislation — in this Congress or the next — seems bleak…

[S]uch a lackluster response from Republicans undermines Boehner’s contention that a majority of his conference supports the immigration principles, which were written in a broad fashion so as to attract the most support possible.

Here’s the list of Republicans for and against. Lots of tea partiers in the latter column, lots of leadership in the former. Roll Call has a point: If they can’t crack two dozen members willing to sign on to a list of “principles,” how many will there be for an actual bill (or series of bills)? Anyway, two X factors here. One, which we’ve discussed before, is Boehner’s willingness to violate the Hastert Rule and pass a legalization bill with mostly Democratic votes. There’s a theory that he’s waiting until the primaries are over to push the bill, to make it easier for Republicans to vote yes. I don’t buy it. It would be such a betrayal, and the timing would be so nakedly political, that I think it’d annoy grassroots conservatives more than if they simply passed something now. He’s probably going to have to do this with a minority of Republicans if he does it at all, regardless of timing, and the only way he’s willing to risk that, I think, is if he’s quietly preparing to retire. Is he?

The other X factor, which gets less attention, is how many Democrats he can count on to vote yes. Remember, Pelosi has said consistently that her caucus will insist on a path to citizenship for newly legalized illegals. Maybe the GOP plan, which would allow citizenship through existing channels without creating any new ones, would suffice for some Democrats, but it may not suffice for all. And it’s hard to believe that Boehner, after insisting that there’d be no special path to citizenship in whatever his team produces, would suddenly eat his words on that and sell out completely in the name of winning Democratic votes. If anything, considering that Republicans are likely to have a majority in both chambers next year and will be free to write their own immigration bill, it’s in the interest of Obama, Pelosi, and House Dems to make some sort of deal with Boehner now. Maybe that means accepting his “a path, but no special path” compromise in the name of obtaining other concessions. Better to get something now than get nothing tomorrow.

Or maybe it means walking away and presenting the GOP with this ultimatum: Pass a bill now that Democrats like or else next year Obama, who’s under pressure from his own base, will expand his executive DREAM amnesty from 2012 to include all illegals. Do it the first way and Boehner and his caucus can claim some (small) amount of credit for getting immigration reform done. Do it the second way and the GOP will be under heavy electoral pressure in 2015 to follow Obama’s lead and pass something codifying his executive order before the next election. They won’t want Democrats touting the fact in 2016 that it was only through the largesse of a Democratic president that illegals finally were able to “come out of the shadows.” They’ll want to play catch up, and that means ratifying (in large part) whatever Obama’s done, likely some sort of suspension of deportations. They’re certainly not going to roll back O’s order while Latino voters watch with interest. So that’s where we’re at right now: Boehner’s willingness to break the Hastert Rule versus Obama’s willingness to undertake his most dramatic executive overreach yet. How lucky do you feel?


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Boehner’s toast.
That condo in FL will see a lot of use.

Another Drew on February 25, 2014 at 2:35 PM

Democrats got rolled in the 2010 elections over passing legislation that a majority of citizens did not want. We used the opportunity to replace a lot of liberals with conservatives.

One wonders if the moderate Republicans learned the lesson the Democrats failed to. Oh well, another opportunity to replace liberals with conservatives, I guess.

mintycrys on February 25, 2014 at 1:18 PM

Whenever I read an amnesty article by Allah, I can’t escape the sense that he’s giddy about the prospect of getting amnesty even though he writes like he’s against it.

More on topic, how on earth is Boehner still speaker when he keeps doing things that only the barest majority of Republicans support? In a sane world he would have been ousted at least a couple years ago. It leads me to believe that more Republicans like what he’s doing than are willing to admit to it.

Paperclips on February 25, 2014 at 2:35 PM

Agreed on all points.

Ukiah on February 25, 2014 at 2:39 PM

One, which we’ve discussed before, is Boehner’s willingness to violate the Hastert Rule and pass a legalization bill with mostly Democratic votes. There’s a theory that he’s waiting until the primaries are over to push the bill, to make it easier for Republicans to vote yes. I don’t buy it. It would be such a betrayal, and the timing would be so nakedly political, that I think it’d annoy grassroots conservatives more than if they simply passed something now. He’s probably going to have to do this with a minority of Republicans if he does it at all, regardless of timing, and the only way he’s willing to risk that, I think, is if he’s quietly preparing to retire. Is he?

One way or another, Boehner has declared that his goal is to force “immigration reform” aka Amnesty, Permanent Open Borders, and Preferential Citizenship regardless. He had to back down, but even his temporary withdrawal was full of caveats. He does not care if the base of the party walks, and would be pleased if he does not have to deal with those evil, plebian conservatives. He has been open declaring war on them. And as far as him retiring, he did buy that condo in Florida a couple of weeks ago. 30 pieces of silver is a lot more after counting a couple of thousand years of inflation. And he has every prospect of a substantial lifetime income afterwards.

Or maybe it means walking away and presenting the GOP with this ultimatum: Pass a bill now that Democrats like or else next year Obama, who’s under pressure from his own base, will expand his executive DREAM amnesty from 2012 to include all illegals.

If he rolls over, nothing will matter after any putative elections in 2014; because the Democrats will have both Houses with a veto-proof majority.

Subotai Bahadur on February 25, 2014 at 2:45 PM

They don’t call us The Stupid Party for nuthin’!

He thinks they can’t lose.
If he passes Amnesty
He’s wrong about that…

Haiku Guy on February 25, 2014 at 2:53 PM

Don’t you do it, John Boehner. Don’t you even think about it…

JohnGalt23 on February 25, 2014 at 3:21 PM

immigration
38m
636 businesses sign onto Chamber of Commerce letter to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, pushing him to act on immigration reform – @DavidNakamura via @USChamber
read more on uschamber.com
============================

Multi-Industry Letter on Immigration Reform
Tuesday, February 25, 2014 – 2:00pm

Dear Mr. Speaker:

The undersigned 636 business organizations are encouraged by the House Republican Conference’s review of “Standards for Immigration Reform.” We support Congress and the Administration moving forward on immigration reform using these Standards as the guideposts for action this year.

We are united in the belief that we can and must do better for our economy and country by modernizing our immigration system. Done properly, reform will deter illegal immigration, protect and complement our U.S. workforce, better respond to changing economic and demographic needs, and generate greater productivity and economic activity, while respecting family unity.

Failure to act is not an option. We cannot afford to be content and watch a dysfunctional immigration system work against our overall national interest. In short, immigration reform is an essential element of a jobs agenda and economic growth. It will add talent, innovation, investment, products, businesses, jobs, and dynamism to our economy.

We urge legislative action to seize this opportunity to fix our dysfunctional immigration system by enacting meaningful immigration reforms this year.

Sincerely,

A thru Z Companies!

https://www.uschamber.com/letter/multi-industry-letter-immigration-reform

canopfor on February 25, 2014 at 3:24 PM

Boehner missed a spot: his curved thumb.

Sherman1864 on February 25, 2014 at 3:33 PM

Frank Thorp V ‏@frankthorpNBC 38m

McConnell says tax reform isn’t happening this year. Boehner said immigration likely won’t either. Gonna be a busy year…

canopfor on February 25, 2014 at 3:33 PM

Step 1: Make sure every one of these 19 “Republicans” has a Primary Challenger
– Filing deadlines for Candidates are very soon in many states so act quickly in your District

Step 2: Attend campaign events and ask every single candidate of every political party running for Federal, State or Local Office to describe their position on ILLEGAL aliens at EVERY SINGLE CAMPAIGN STOP.
– Make Immigration the top issue for 2014!

Step 3: Ask every Democrat in the House and the Senate the same question these 19 Republicans were asked so we can get a list of Democrat Primary targets too.
– If there are any patriotic Democrat Voters left, they would be finding Primary Challengers for pro-Amnesty Democrats too.

wren on February 25, 2014 at 3:41 PM

Dude, I’m nervous. A little.

Don’t worry Allah, they will be sufficiently disillusioned to stay at home on election day.

V7_Sport on February 25, 2014 at 4:50 PM

They’re certainly not going to roll back O’s order while Latino voters watch with interest.

But we’ve been assured time and again that Latino voters are conservatives in waiting who believe in the rule of law, how can this be?

jnelchef on February 25, 2014 at 5:07 PM

Obama’s willingness to undertake his most dramatic executive overreach yet and the GOP will be under heavy electoral pressure in 2015 to follow Obama’s lead

So let me get this straight. If Obama does something unethical and illegal…..AGAIN, Republicans will be pressured to copy what he did legislatively? What has our country come to?

The way I see it, whatever bull crap he is doing on his own can be undone with the next Presidents pen.

But if people are saying we must copy what he did illegally, I just give up. However I will literally give up if this passes with Boehner’s support. I will not vote for ANY Republican in 2014 or 2016 and support a 3rd party. So that’s the difference.

KMav on February 25, 2014 at 5:23 PM

Possible Boehner has a “different exit”. He can propose a bill, or bills, and then have both Republicans and Democrats vote against them. That gives him “cover” for seeking a reform, but none of the pain other than a lost vote. Speakers have put up legislation in the past to let it be defeated so that they can simply wash their hands of an uncomfortable issue.

tehehehe on February 25, 2014 at 5:32 PM

Lame duck?

ritewhit on February 25, 2014 at 6:11 PM

canopfor on February 25, 2014 at 3:24 PM

Boycott targets?

Brock Robamney on February 25, 2014 at 6:42 PM

YES

Mark Amodei, Nev.

John A. Boehner, Ohio

Ken Calvert, Calif.

Eric Cantor, Va.

Jeff Denham, Calif.

Charlie Dent, Pa.

Mario Diaz-Balart, Fla.

Renee Ellmers, N.C.

Joe Heck, Nev.

Peter T. King, N.Y.

Kevin McCarthy, Calif.

Michael McCaul, Texas

Howard “Buck” McKeon, Calif.

Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Wash.

Steve Pearce, N.M.

Paul D. Ryan, Wis.

Glenn Thompson, Pa.

Marlin Stutzman, Ind.

David Valadao, Calif.

Bolded names are names I recognize as comment sources in other articles I’ve read before. Why does it not surprise me that so many of the media’s favorite Republicans are also part of such a distinct minority in the caucus?

Stoic Patriot on February 25, 2014 at 7:11 PM

Good bye to any semblance of America being conservative. Good bye to any semblance of America being law-abiding. Good bye to any hope of America electing a Republican congress or presidency.

rlwo2008 on February 25, 2014 at 7:16 PM

Spent the day calling my Reps asking why illegal immigrants deserve more than US citizens. If companies will train non-speaking English immigrants, why won’t they train English citizens in the same job, is it because going forward they will not have to provide health care for immigrants?

BelleStarre on February 25, 2014 at 7:50 PM

Too late, Wren!

McCaul has no primary opponent. His filing deadline’s long past; the primary’s in one week.

The filing deadline has passed in Ohio (Boehner) and Indiana (Stutzman). The five primary opponents running against them have raised less than $7,000 among them, according to The Green Papers, which gets its info from FEC filings.

As for the rest, Amodei, Denham, Dent, Diaz-Balart, Heck, King, McCarthy, Pearce, Rodgers, Ryan, Thompson, and Valadao have no primary opponents. Calvert, Cantor have opponents with no FEC filings (you must file one if you raise or spend $5,000 on your campaign). Ellmers’ opponent has raised $2,695. McKeon’s retiring.

Not even a third-tier challenger in the lot. Boy, looks you Teahadis are screwed. Again.

BrianJ on February 25, 2014 at 9:13 PM

BelleStarre on February 25, 2014 at 7:50 PM

BINGO!

Another Drew on February 25, 2014 at 9:14 PM

crybaby better not do it

WisCon on February 25, 2014 at 9:17 PM

Not even a third-tier challenger in the lot. Boy, looks you Teahadis are screwed. Again.

BrianJ on February 25, 2014 at 9:13 PM

We’ll see who’s screwed come general election day, I suppose. If these GOPe amnesty-supporting folks think they’re headed for huge wins in November, well…

Midas on February 25, 2014 at 9:42 PM

Sherman Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. One thing to ask, how will immigration reform help or hurt my community. Without immigration reform, illegal immigrants are allowed to work in my neighborhood.

With immigration reform, Milwaukee citizens will be bypassed despite language barriers for cheaper labor that is not mandated by law to have health care.

I would hope that Milwaukee, Wisconsin representatives choose reform that helps American citizens, despite the hurdle of Obamacare. Do not choose incentives that choose global over local.

BelleStarre on February 25, 2014 at 9:45 PM

Everybody should read this:

The Great Establishment Deception on Winning Back Senate

It goes far beyond 2014…

BabyGrace on February 25, 2014 at 10:18 PM

Just stopping in to reiterate that if Boehner pushes Shamnesty through, not only will I not sit out 2014, I will actively work for a Democrat majority in the House and work to prevent a Republican majority in the Senate. As a lifelong Republican, I will offer to do ads in any and all Congressional districts urging support of the Democratic candidate. I will even do them for free in the districts of the Republican leadership, regardless of how they voted, and I will pay my way to campaign for the Democrat in Boehner’s district where I will mercilessly excoriate, disparage and smear him until I make him cry.

Oh, yeah, and third party here I come.

Don’t even bother to tell me about the Supreme Court. You can’t get enough of a Republican majority in the Senate to prevent effin’ RINOs from confirming any nomination that might come up.

Dusty on February 25, 2014 at 10:19 PM

[canopfor on February 25, 2014 at 3:24 PM]

Oh fer chrissakes, looks like 10% of them are regional or local Chamber’s of Commerce, which is doubly bad for Shamnesty. Bad #1, it misleadingly inflates the number of ‘business organizations’** signing on to the letter. Bad #2, if Shamnesty is so good and the National Chamber of Commerce is saying business is so supportive, then why didn’t like 5,000 local and regional Chambers of Commerce sign onto the letter?

** I like their use of ‘business organizations’. They couldn’t say businesses, because Chambers of Commerce aren’t really businesses, so they have to use a deceitful euphemism so as to enlarge the pool of signatories to include a bunch of crony organizations to featherbed the list.

Dusty on February 25, 2014 at 10:42 PM

If Republicans pass amnesty they won’t have to worry about ousting Boehner as Speaker. Nancy will.

bluesdoc70 on February 25, 2014 at 11:58 PM

Maybe conservatives should announce that they are considering passing Card Check if the Chamberpot of Commerce keeps pushing Amnesty.

DaMav on February 26, 2014 at 12:08 AM

There must be a lot of money on the line if Republicans are willing to kill what’s left of the party to get a share.

Here’s a good preview of a future USA if this passes:

“http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/02/destroying_the_gop_how_immigration_turned_california_blue.htmlhttp://”

Nomas on February 26, 2014 at 7:20 AM

Possible Boehner has a “different exit”. He can propose a bill, or bills, and then have both Republicans and Democrats vote against them. That gives him “cover” for seeking a reform, but none of the pain other than a lost vote. Speakers have put up legislation in the past to let it be defeated so that they can simply wash their hands of an uncomfortable issue.

tehehehe on February 25, 2014 at 5:32 PM

That would be a more credible explanation had Boehner’s immigration push been in direct response to Democrats or to address a priority with voters. But in fact Obamacare had sucked all of the attention away from immigration until Boehner brought it back up.

All he accomplished was to divert attention away from Obamacare and put the focus back on an issue the Democrats will use to hammer the GOP unless it totally caves in and passes the Senate amnesty bill.

Nomas on February 26, 2014 at 7:41 AM

immigration
38m
636 businesses sign onto Chamber of Commerce letter to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, pushing him to act on immigration reform – @DavidNakamura via @USChamber
read more on uschamber.com
============================

Multi-Industry Letter on Immigration Reform
Tuesday, February 25, 2014 – 2:00pm

The list is mostly agriculture and construction companies…all clamoring for cheap labor without regard to the future of our culture.

cajunpatriot on February 26, 2014 at 8:49 AM

He screws us then retires. Anytime he and his cohort get their heads together,he is planning on caving.

libertygal on February 26, 2014 at 9:31 AM

‘Bout time! Forget about mowing my lawn, I’d like help shoveling the global warming off the driveway.

Kissmygrits on February 26, 2014 at 9:44 AM

If Obama legalizes the illegal aliens then he is making law. Which is unconstitutional. Which is an impeachable offense. If he does this after the elections, then the House can (and should) impeach him. It matters not that the Senate will ignore the impeachment (and they will). It will go on record. The next president will be a Republican and will revert the executive order on the grounds that it is unconstitutional.

SunSword on February 26, 2014 at 1:05 PM

Immigration reform will be the most damaging bill to American citizens in the middle and working class in history. In spite of that, politicians are rabidly dedicated to passing/cramming the bill anyway. Why?

There are only three reasons why politicians would push so doggedly on anything – especially in a “bipartisan” manner: Power. Money. Fear. Pick any two.

The leadership of both parties colluded on a strategy to pass a bill or bills that produce two massive benefits for them: Adds millions of politician-controlled votes over the next few election cycles; and adds billions more dollars to the bank accounts of their high-tech, construction and leisure-industry cronies by flooding America’s labor pools with cheap foreign workers, driving down wages.

Democrats are scared – they know Obamacare will become overwhelmingly unpopular thereby gutting their power for a very long time.. unless they can mitigate the damage by somehow manufacturing tens of millions of left-of-center votes out of thin air to nullify a like number of votes by very angry real-American conservative and moderate citizens.

Republican leaders benefit from large inflows of cheap workers because it benefits many very wealthy cronies. Post 2012 loss they glommed onto a strategy rooted in winning the “Hispanic vote” and colluded with Chuck Schumer via the Gang of 8 to fulfill that strategy in a “bipartisan” way.

Bottom line: The GOP agreed to champion the bill if the Democrats would share the power. That the bill will significantly dilute the political and economic power of the middle-class (who are a PITA for both parties compared to the “owned” dependent-class…) is part and parcel of the plan.

DrDeano on February 26, 2014 at 2:56 PM

Comment pages: 1 2