White House: If anyone’s been hired since 2010, ObamaCare must be awesome, or something

posted at 12:01 pm on February 20, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Let’s see how this works. According to White House adviser Phil Schilliro, the job-killing aspects of ObamaCare cannot be real if we’ve added jobs since the bill was passed in March 2010. He told a Kaiser Family Health group that the addition of eight million jobs since proves that the CBO doesn’t know what it’s talking about when it comes to disincentives. No, really:

“You can’t say the Affordable Care Act has killed job growth,” Schiliro told an audience at a Kaiser Family Foundation presentation Wednesday. “In the 46 months since it passed, over 8 million jobs have been created… No one would say the Affordable Care Act created those jobs, but you can’t say the ACA has killed job growth.”

Schiliro’s comparison presumes that were Obamacare damaging at all, it would have stopped job growth entirely — including any recovery from the financial crisis in late 2008.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the financial crash and resulting recession lost the U.S. economy 8.8 million jobs.

The Congressional Budget Office issued a report concluding that the equivalent of 2.3 million jobs would be lost because Obamacare’s structure incentivizes less work with more taxpayer subsidies.

Progressives ripped conservatives for taking the CBO out of context in this report, but Schilliro goes one step beyond that to take the CBO, job statistics, and population growth out of context.

Let’s start with the obvious. The CBO score on ObamaCare focuses mainly on the future effects of its implementation, and not of its impact in the theoretical stage. The “46 months since it passed” is a complete non-sequitur to that report. The CBO projects that there will be 2.5 million fewer job-equivalents in the economy net as a direct result of ObamaCare implementation, including the unilateral and arbitrary changes being made over the last year.

Next, let’s unpack the comparison itself. Schilliro is almost correct in the number of jobs created since March 2010, at least in the Establishment survey; we’ve added 7.688 million jobs in those 46 months. However, that only comes to 167,130 a month, which barely keeps pace with population growth. Furthermore, we had just lost the same amount of jobs over the previous two years, and any decent economic recovery should have put that number back to work in a much shorter time frame. Instead, since the passage of ObamaCare, this is what’s happened to the workforce participation rate:

bls-civ-part-rate-2009-13That number has been declining rapidly during the entire “recovery,” and especially after ObamaCare’s passage. This may be more correlative than causative — we’ll get back to that in a moment — but there is no good job-creation news to associate with ObamaCare, no matter what Schilliro thinks.

On top of this, now we have the CBO report on a key component of Obamanomics these days — the minimum-wage hike. This policy would wipe out another 500,000 jobs from the economy that would otherwise exist, not over a decade but by the end of 2016. This would make the above problem even worse, and lock more entry-level workers out of the economy. What did the White House argue in defense of this policy? I address that in my column this week for The Fiscal Times, as it perfectly encapsulates Obamanomics:

Furman, however, gave the private sector some words of wisdom in how businesses can ignore a massive increase in labor costs. In a conference call from the White House on Tuesday, he told businesses that hiking the wage “increases motivation,” which would offer “overall benefits for productivity.”

Therefore, Furman advises businesses that they have other options. “The other margins on which firms can adjust — for example, reduced profits — mean that there is substantial literature that has found little or no employment impact on the minimum wage,” Furman told reporters.

This is one of the most revealing statements made by this administration about its economic policy and its worldview. Their vision of an American economy is not one in which wealth gets created in a dynamic environment and creates jobs and opportunities that in turn create more wealth, jobs, and opportunities. This White House sees the economy as a static, zero-sum game in which investors and business owners simply should be told to accept “reduced profits” while government shapes the markets to their own purposes. …

Wages have stalled in the economy, but it’s not from the stasis in the minimum wage, which was last increased in 2009. It comes from economic, regulatory, and tax policies that tell investors that they should expect less return on their capital and penalize them for expansion. If minimum-wage increases solved the wage-stagnation problem, the 2007-9 increases should have worked. Instead, it constricted the labor markets for the people with the most need and contributed to entry-level job lockout.

In order to drive real wages and buying power up, we need policies that incentivize both investors and workers, rather than celebrating disincentives. We need to stop penalizing investment and increasing the costs of labor, rather than attempt to tell people how wonderful higher labor costs and expanded regulatory burdens will be for their businesses. We will end stagnation when we stop embracing it as the ideal.

Nate Beeler has an excellent editorial cartoon today in the Columbus Dispatch addressing the White House response to its failures:

beeler-ocare-lg

Be sure to check out Nate’s blog for more of his excellent work.

Update: For accuracy, I changed “2.5 million jobs” to “2.5 million job-equivalents in the economy.”

Update: Tony Benvin also noted the zero-sum, static thinking of Obamanomics at the American Thinker last December.


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more jobs are going down the tubes due to 0care…

OmahaConservative on February 20, 2014 at 12:02 PM

6. Thou shalt not kill.

10. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s house, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his ass, nor any thing that is thy neighbour’s.

10Commandments on February 20, 2014 at 12:05 PM

2.5 million fewer jobs net as a direct result of ObamaCare implementation

To be fair, it’s 2.5 million fewer people working, not 2.5 million fewer jobs.

themuppet on February 20, 2014 at 12:06 PM

Did your kid pass their math test? DeathCare.

You won at cards last night? DeathCare.

Your neighbor finally returned the tool he borrowed? DeathCare.

You were complimented on your outfit? DeathCare.

Everything good that happens is the result of DeathCare, anything bad is the fault of the Tea Party.

Bishop on February 20, 2014 at 12:08 PM

The fact that anyone is still alive and breathing is proof of the success of DeathCare!

ShainS on February 20, 2014 at 12:09 PM

This White House sees the economy as a static, zero-sum game in which investors and business owners simply should be told to accept “reduced profits” while government shapes the markets to their own purposes.

spot on Ed

cmsinaz on February 20, 2014 at 12:11 PM

watched Atlas Shrugged I and II over the weekend….still very relevant in today’s environment….

cmsinaz on February 20, 2014 at 12:12 PM

They are in a word, delusional. It is amazing how they can spin just about anything but in the end you just can’t shine a turd, especially this nasty one. Why the GOP is not screaming about the job particpation rate is beyond me.

major dad on February 20, 2014 at 12:12 PM

If government – using its magical powers – can make health care “affordable” why not make everything people need (and hell, everything they want) affordable?

ahhhhh….. the sanction of the victim…….

The ugly truth is that when we demand “affordable” whatever-it-is, we are in fact demanding that others by compelled to provide it in exactly the same way as a street mugger demands the valuable of his victims.

Looting becomes accepted. It is now “public policy.”

At first, of course, it is limited and channeled in ways that are not immediately ruinous and which may even seem admirable. You get infrastructure, you get great public buildings, men to the Moon. But inevitably – the principle having been accepted – the looting becomes less and less admirable.

But inevitably – the principle having been accepted – the looting becomes less and less admirable. Grotesque frauds are perpetrated on a grand scale. Billionaires are able to rent-seek. Immense corporate cartels are able to socialize their losses – and capitalize their profit. Young, able-bodied louts are able to drive around in Cadillac Escalades and swipe EBT cards to buy sushi paid for by people who can’t afford sushi themselves – in part because they’re compelled to “help” able-bodied young louts eat it instead.

How long will it be, do you imagine, before there is a clamor to make a Starbucks latte “affordable,” too?

Earthy old Ben Franklin’s observation about the republic lasting just as long as people are able to refrain from voting themselves the property of others comes to mind.

roflmmfao

donabernathy on February 20, 2014 at 12:13 PM

Keeping things in perspective our local paper, The Long Beach Press Telegram, touted the growth of jobs in the area with the Long Beach school district and the city itself leading the way as the number 1 and number 2 local employers in jobs.

Once upon a time, the Douglas Aircraft plant, now Boeing, down the street from us was probably the number one local employer, had in a bygone era its acres of parking lots full of thousands of employees’ cars and on Fridays at the local banks lines out the doors of employees with paychecks in hand for deposit or cashing. All is pretty much quiet now, as the plant probably is 1/20th as active as in its heyday and may end up extinct as Boeing moves the work to other states.

Good times. Good times.

hawkeye54 on February 20, 2014 at 12:14 PM

Progressives ripped conservatives for taking the CBO out of context in this report, but Schilliro goes one step beyond that to take the CBO, job statistics, and population growth out of context.

Given the scale and depth of the multiple failures around the Administration’s efforts to ‘fundamentally change’ the national economy and drive via ‘social justice’, ‘wealth redistribution’, ‘government stimulus picking winners and losers’, and ‘fairness’ an economy that is based on their ideological vision, all they have left is to massively take the results out of context and spin their asses off.

It’s yet another reflection of the complete and utter contempt this WH has towards the American people.

Their vision of an American economy is not one in which wealth gets created in a dynamic environment and creates jobs and opportunities that in turn create more wealth, jobs, and opportunities. This White House sees the economy as a static, zero-sum game in which investors and business owners simply should be told to accept “reduced profits” while government shapes the markets to their own purposes. …

They believe that since their ideologically drive economic concepts work within theory – they must work equally well in the real world. Since it doesn’t, rather than learn and adjust, they see the problem is that they aren’t controlling and shaping the marketplace firmly enough.

Their ideology and arrogance makes it impossible to learn from history and the historical examples of why their efforts have never succeeded or really generated wealth for anyone but their friends and cronies. They embrace elements of human nature, narcissism, greed, contempt, arrogance, entitlement for themselves, yet they deny the effects of those elements elsewhere.

Is it any wonder why we remain in the longest and weakest economic recovery since the Second World War?

Athos on February 20, 2014 at 12:15 PM

…the new math!

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 12:20 PM

Lies, lies and more lies. The motto of the Obama Administration.

albill on February 20, 2014 at 12:24 PM

The “workers’ party”, via Pelosi and the WH, are now promoting non-working, to write poetry and such, at the expense of the producers…No wonder they want slave-labor from Mexico and Honduras.

1. Their new logo s/b “Non-workers, Unite” – Marx and Lenin will die again, so will Engels.

2. All producers, go gulching, you fools.

Schadenfreude on February 20, 2014 at 12:26 PM

I thought the talking point was that it’s good fewer people were working, as they wouldn’t be “job locked.” Now they’re saying it’s creating jobs?

Could the Fascist-Democrats please have a consistent message.

rbj on February 20, 2014 at 12:26 PM

watched Atlas Shrugged I and II over the weekend….still very relevant in today’s environment….

cmsinaz on February 20, 2014 at 12:12 PM

Except for the part about passenger rail.

On the bright side, Biff Tannen was in Part II.

The Schaef on February 20, 2014 at 12:26 PM

This type of logic proves that Jeffrey Dahmer/Ted Bundy/John Wayne Gacy/name your own serial killer wasn’t really that bad because some people lived longer than him .. or something

J_Crater on February 20, 2014 at 12:28 PM

The Schaef on February 20, 2014 at 12:26 PM

smh

cmsinaz on February 20, 2014 at 12:29 PM

There is nothing that comes from the Obama regime that is not a lie. All that comes out of the regimes commissars are lies.

The coup is complete.

jukin3 on February 20, 2014 at 12:35 PM

Are these people so used to lying that they believe their own lies? Or, do they hate us that much that they’ll utter whatever inanity comes to mind to forestall an admission?

I honestly do not know. At times I feel like our political opposition is 60 million trial lawyers trying to spring their guilty as sin client.

crrr6 on February 20, 2014 at 12:40 PM

“In the 46 months since it passed, over 8 million jobs have been created… No one would say the Affordable Care Act created those jobs, but you can’t say the ACA has killed job growth.”

Behold the Lie so Big, that people will actually Believe it.

Yet, where are Republicans in DC, who should be out there every day
in front of the media shooting this Lie down?

Yes, I’m talking about you Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor,
Mike Rogers, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn…

Oh, yes, I left out Boehner….he’s too busy tanning

ToddPA on February 20, 2014 at 12:48 PM

Yes, they do see the economy as a zero-sum game. The zero is the net effect of this administrations policies, rules and regulations towards growth. The sum is the money that flows towards them and then they redistribute it to their base and cronies. The game is how long they can get away with it all.

CPRforAmerica on February 20, 2014 at 12:53 PM

Are hospitals laying off nurses because of Obamacare and the money cut from medicare? Or do they want to become poets and painters?

2012chuck on February 20, 2014 at 12:53 PM

Now this is the kind of math liberals like…

right2bright on February 20, 2014 at 12:58 PM

Therefore, Furman advises businesses that they have other options. “The other margins on which firms can adjust — for example, reduced profits — mean that there is substantial literature that has found little or no employment impact on the minimum wage,” Furman told reporters.

And thus you have, in a nutshell, why all Libs suffer from economic stupidity.

goflyers on February 20, 2014 at 1:00 PM

Ed I’m not really understanding the unemployment numbers. Nif the recession cost 8.8 million jobs and only 7.7 jobs have been created, which doesn’t come close to population growth, why aren’t the unemployment numbers even worse? I understand the U 3 but shouldn’t the U6 be much higher? More importantly, why isn’t there a Republican shouting these numbers from the top of the Capitol rotunda?

hopeful on February 20, 2014 at 1:01 PM

I despise these people, too ignorant to even run a lemonade stand.

matthew8787 on February 20, 2014 at 1:06 PM

Obam: “I have a pen and a phone.”

Response from someone, please: well, he sure as Hell doesn’t have a website.

matthew8787 on February 20, 2014 at 1:07 PM

The fact that anyone is still alive and breathing is proof of the success of DeathCare!

ShainS on February 20, 2014 at 12:09 PM

I prefer the term Obamacide, think it’s more accurate.

LouisianaLightning on February 20, 2014 at 1:16 PM

hopeful on February 20, 2014 at 1:01 PM

The unemployment numbers only look at those who are still “actively seeking” employment (I’m sure that definition has changed as well). When people stop looking for work, they are no longer counted as “unemployed”, hence the lower rate. In theory, if you just use their unemployment numbers, we could have full employment (I believe statistically 5% is considered full employment) even though there are fewer people working.

Fewer people working leads to a smaller tax base, which requires more in taxes from those still working, etc. You see where this goes.

USNCVN on February 20, 2014 at 1:37 PM

“You can’t say the Affordable Care Act has killed job growth,” Schiliro told an audience at a Kaiser Family Foundation presentation Wednesday. “In the 46 months since it passed, over 8 million jobs have been created… No one would say the Affordable Care Act created those jobs, but you can’t say the ACA has killed job growth.”

Gosh, that sounds like jobs “saved” by the “stimulus”.

Odd that we were all forced to hear about that new set of training wheels given only to this president.

So if you kept a job after the stimulus, then the stimulus was to credit. But if anybody gets a job, it just testifies to idea that Obamacare doesn’t kill jobs.

Success by taking Americans for third graders…

Axeman on February 20, 2014 at 2:42 PM

his is what’s happened to the workforce participation rate:

Any time you talk about the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), it’s important to show not only the overall LFPR but also the LFPR by gender.

Why? Because over the 66 years that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been collecting and reporting on this data, very different things have happened to Men’s vs. Women’s LFPR.

For multiple decades, a sharply rising

Labor Force Participation Rate – Women

masked a declining

Labor Force Participation Rate – Men.

Women’s LFPR rose for about 50 years (1948-1997),
held relatively steady for about 11 years (1998-2008),
and has been FALLING CONTINUOUSLY for the last 5 years (2009-present) under Obama.

Women’s LFPR is now the lowest it’s been in over 25 years (“you’ve gone a long way back, baby”).

Men’s LFPR is the lowest it’s EVER been in over 66 years of BLS data!

Men’s LFPR was:
86.9% in Dec 1948
73.7% in Dec 2006 (the last month of GOP House, Senate & President)
69.1% in Dec 2013 (after 7 years of Democrat majorities)

Men’s LFPR fell 13.2 points over the course of 58 years (an average of 0.23 percentage points per year), but has fallen 4.6 points over just the last 7 years (an average of 0.66 percentage points per year, the steepest decline in the history of Men’s LFPR).

Obama has been a disaster for both men’s and women’s LFPR.

ITguy on February 20, 2014 at 2:50 PM

Ed I’m not really understanding the unemployment numbers. Nif the recession cost 8.8 million jobs and only 7.7 jobs have been created, which doesn’t come close to population growth, why aren’t the unemployment numbers even worse? I understand the U 3 but shouldn’t the U6 be much higher? More importantly, why isn’t there a Republican shouting these numbers from the top of the Capitol rotunda?

hopeful on February 20, 2014 at 1:01 PM

I’m guessing the boomers starting to retire may account for some of the difference. As for the republicans the leadership isn’t worth spit and even if they were shouting only the choir would hear it because lsm wouldn’t report it.

wifarmboy on February 20, 2014 at 2:54 PM

Phil Schilliro has been inside the D.C. beltway bubble, living off the taxpayers since the early 1980s, including chief of staff for Henry Waxman.

I wouldn’t trust this career corrupticrat for the time of day.

MichaelGabriel on February 20, 2014 at 3:31 PM

Ed I’m not really understanding the unemployment numbers. Nif the recession cost 8.8 million jobs and only 7.7 jobs have been created, which doesn’t come close to population growth, why aren’t the unemployment numbers even worse? I understand the U 3 but shouldn’t the U6 be much higher? More importantly, why isn’t there a Republican shouting these numbers from the top of the Capitol rotunda?

hopeful on February 20, 2014 at 1:01 PM

Number Employed in Civilian Labor Force – Number Employed peaked at 146,595,000 in November 2007, dropped to 138,013,000 in December 2009, and was 145,224,000 in January 2014. We’re still 1,371,000 below where we were in November 2007, and that’s after 6 years 2 months of population growth.

When you look at Percent of population Employed in Civilian Labor Force (Employment-Population Ratio) for those same months, you find that it was 62.9% in November 2007, dropped to 58.3% in December 2009, and was 58.8% in January 2014.

Under President George W. Bush with a Republican House and Republican Senate, the Employment-Population Ratio never dropped below 62.0%.

Under Democrat majorities since January 3, 2007, the Employment-Population Ratio has been below 59% for 53 consecutive months.

ITguy on February 20, 2014 at 3:55 PM

But, but, but the stock market.

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 5:16 PM