Odds of GOP taking back the Senate: 80+ percent?

posted at 7:21 pm on February 20, 2014 by Allahpundit

A read well worth your time from Sean Trende on another slow-except-for-Ukraine news day. How does he come up with a probability like that? By using an indicator that’s helped predict midterm elections in the past — namely, the president’s job approval on election day — and then running simulations a la Nate Silver for various different approval ratings to see how many seats the GOP could expect to gain (or even lose).

The result: Democratic seppuku.

st

The Senate’s 55/45 right now, which means Obama’s approval rating could rise as high as 49 percent and the GOP’s low-end expectation would still be six seats, flipping the chamber. According to Gallup’s latest job approval figures today, O’s back to 46 percent — the highest he’s been in ages but still a number that could plausibly produce a double-digit pick-up for Republicans. In fact, just to put in perspective for you how heavy a lift this is for Democrats, here’s RCP’s graph of Obama’s job approval for the past two and a half years, since July 2011:

rcp

The only time he reaches 50 percent is right after election day 2012. He managed to stay above water for a few months afterward, during his post-election honeymoon period, but he was break-even at best before then and, starting with the Snowden revelations last summer, lately it’s been nothing but a steady decline. All of which is to say, barring an amazing turnaround for ObamaCare or some sort of unforeseen crisis a la Christie’s handling of Hurricane Sandy, there’s no reason to expect O’s job approval to soar over the next nine months. It would defy more than two years of precedent. There’s no historical reason to expect it either; there was a rash of articles last year after Obama’s numbers started to crumble noting that once a second-term president’s job approval lands in the crapper, it usually doesn’t make it out again. Maybe O’s rating will inch up a bit, or maybe it won’t once the next round of ObamaCare chaos begins. Given that he’s had a ceiling of about 48-49 percent since mid-2011 (again, except for his election honeymoon), which way would you bet? Follow the link up top and scroll down to Trende’s bell-curve graph of likely Democratic losses and you’ll see there’s a greater than 80 percent chance that they lose six seats or more. In theory, at least: In practice, it may be that O’s low approval rating makes a blue-state Senate race surprisingly tight but doesn’t quite push the Republican challenger over the top against the Democratic incumbent.

One more thing. Trende’s last piece of election forecasting noted that the 2016 Senate cycle looks to be as difficult for Republicans as this one is for Democrats, meaning that the GOP needs to pile up wins this November to buffer itself against heavy losses two years from now. According to that forecast, Democrats would have a better than even chance of retaking the Senate in 2016 if the GOP wins eight seats or fewer this time even if a Republican takes the White House in 2016. That means the GOP needs to win nine this year to be somewhat safe, and according to Trende’s table above, that could require an Obama approval rating of around 44 percent on election day. Obama’s approval rating today, per the RCP average: 44.4 percent. Hmmmmmmm.


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Not if they pass Amnesty it isn’t…

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 7:23 PM

Don’t get cocky

And “what difference does it make” if it’s GOPes

22044 on February 20, 2014 at 7:24 PM

Great. A new conservative day is sure to dawn.

Won’t it?

Cicero43 on February 20, 2014 at 7:24 PM

Let’s keep him to 47 and ditch McConnell. Or, better, yet 46 and we can ditch both McConnell and Cornyn and still keep the Senate, even if we lose their seats (which I don’t think would be likely anyway, but need to appease the bed wetters).

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:25 PM

I’d rather see them gain about 40 more TEA party seats in the House.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 7:26 PM

Won’t happen. The ‘pubs will form a circular firing squad and self destruct. Combine that with stuffed ballot boxes, ‘lost ballots’, multi-voting Dems and any and all other shenanigans well known to ‘Progressives’, and the Senate will ‘enjoy’ another generation of Harry Reid.

vnvet on February 20, 2014 at 7:26 PM

So, they are all electable now?

faraway on February 20, 2014 at 7:27 PM

Odds of them screwing it up are higher.

xNavigator on February 20, 2014 at 7:27 PM

Hope it’s true.

Exit question: Will CNN televise the new filibuster rules being rammed up Harry Reid’s rear end while the rest of the surviving Democratic Senators scream the rules are no longer “fair”?

GarandFan on February 20, 2014 at 7:28 PM

The night is darkest just before the dawn.

Imrahil on February 20, 2014 at 7:28 PM

I read part of it but it was very dense.

I mean, I must be very dense.

But great news.

wyntre9 on February 20, 2014 at 7:31 PM

Will it matter? Pharaoh is already ruling by Decree…

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 7:32 PM

Odds on an actual reduction (not just the slowing of growth) in federal government spending if the GOP won every elected office in the Legislative and Executive branches of government: 0%.

ShainS on February 20, 2014 at 7:33 PM

1 egg, 2 egg, 3…, oh isht.

phatfawzi on February 20, 2014 at 7:33 PM

Don’t count out the stupid factor of the Stupid Party.

rbj on February 20, 2014 at 7:34 PM

According to the headlines, the GOP’s Wall Street cronies are working hard to make sure that the GOP actually loses seats.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:34 PM

Which person is in charge is almost as important as which party is in charge.

Ukiah on February 20, 2014 at 7:36 PM

Even if they win it back, they’re heading for a shellacking in 2016 with so many up for reelection, especially since it’s a presidential election year and more of the low-info idiots will be out pulling one virtual lever for a straight Dim ticket.

No, that’s not a typo.

xNavigator on February 20, 2014 at 7:37 PM

The night is darkest just before the dawn.

Imrahil on February 20, 2014 at 7:28 PM

But who is thinking that, the dems or the repubs?

Mimzey on February 20, 2014 at 7:38 PM

They’ll just go back to “gangs” of “bipartisanship” if they gain a majority, with the usual suspects leading the way.

Barky will have endless ink in his veto pen.

We are in a heap load of doo doo.

wolly4321 on February 20, 2014 at 7:39 PM

Not if they pass Amnesty it isn’t…

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 7:23 PM

…got that right!

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 7:39 PM

What are the odds the GOP will somehow blow it?

TarheelBen on February 20, 2014 at 7:41 PM

Who cares? The GOP taking the Senate is a dream come true for Killery and the dems. Two years of doing nothing because Zero will veto all of it, and then the dems running on the “do-nothing” Republican Congress in 2016. And Zero will continue doing whatever he wants, Constitution be damned, and the feckless GOP will stand around with their hands in their pockets. Who cares if the GOP takes the Senate? It means nothing. Less than nothing.

Rational Thought on February 20, 2014 at 7:42 PM

Media reports that Obama’s approval numbers improve suddenly in 3…2…1

workingclass artist on February 20, 2014 at 7:42 PM

Related:

This is also my sign off until the semester ends, and who knows if I’ll return after. I’ve got too much work to do, there’s too many things to do off line and posting here has gotten a bit stale. Good wishes to those few people I’ve had the occasional pleasant exchange with, you know who you are. And peace out to the crazies!

libfreeordie on February 20, 2014 at 8:18 AM

Preemptive hiding?

portlandon on February 20, 2014 at 7:45 PM

Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to screwing this up.

roryn00 on February 20, 2014 at 7:45 PM

All this after Ted Cruz supposedly “destroyed the parties chances of blah blah blah blah”?

portlandon on February 20, 2014 at 7:48 PM

Unfortunately, I doubt it.

rlwo2008 on February 20, 2014 at 7:48 PM

Pass any kind of special pathway to citizenship or legalization for illegal aliens, and the Republicans are finished.

I will never vote for a pro-amnesty candidate.

bluegill on February 20, 2014 at 7:49 PM

The wonders of gerrymandering

Jamson64 on February 20, 2014 at 7:50 PM

This is good news..:)

Dire Straits on February 20, 2014 at 7:50 PM

Talk to me in September.

listens2glenn on February 20, 2014 at 7:51 PM

How about VENEZUELA?

eaglephin on February 20, 2014 at 7:51 PM

Talk to me in September.

listens2glenn on February 20, 2014 at 7:51 PM

Good point..:)

Dire Straits on February 20, 2014 at 7:51 PM

Unfortunately, I doubt it.

rlwo2008 on February 20, 2014 at 7:48 PM

.
CYNIC !
.
Oh, wait … so am I . . . . . never mind.

listens2glenn on February 20, 2014 at 7:53 PM

So this is another computer model?
Like the one used for global warming?
Or the one the GOP used in the last election?

Ok, no, this is like the one Nate Silver used.
Well ok then.

Joseph OHenry on February 20, 2014 at 7:55 PM

None of which factors in a GOP dead set on destroying their own base, of course.

Midas on February 20, 2014 at 7:59 PM

None of which factors in a GOP dead set on destroying their own base, of course.

Midas on February 20, 2014 at 7:59 PM

The Whig Party doesn’t mind being the minority as long as the Country Club Elites get to RUN IT.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 7:59 PM

How about VENEZUELA?

eaglephin on February 20, 2014 at 7:51 PM

Where we are headed soon.

I don’t foresee Obama leaving office except by force. He won’t walk away 1/20/17 like he’s supposed to.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:00 PM

I enjoy seeing him placing a feminine napkin on his head.

I wonder if his eye makeup got wiped off.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:02 PM

I enjoy seeing him placing a feminine napkin on his head.

I wonder if his eye makeup got wiped off.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:02 PM

He had to extract it from his lady parts first.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:04 PM

I don’t foresee Obama leaving office except by force. He won’t walk away 1/20/17 like he’s supposed to.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:00 PM

Obviously you haven’t seen Michelle beat the ever loving sh*t out of him..

Fortunately, we have http://www.michellesmirror.com to document his fagginess.

He’ll step down and feign illness before his term is complete. And NO, there will no third term for Obama. That’s a leftists fantasy.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:05 PM

What countries company is tabulating the voting machine results this year?

wolly4321 on February 20, 2014 at 8:05 PM

He had to extract it from his lady parts first.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:04 PM

War on Tampons.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:05 PM

Doesn’t matter. They’re going to give Dear Leader everything he wants anyway so that they can claim in 2016 that everything is the Dems’ fault. Except the media will bury them with War on Womens’s junk anyway, they get wiped out and take lobbying jobs.

Wisdom_of_Homer on February 20, 2014 at 8:08 PM

The Whig Party doesn’t mind being the minority as long as the Country Club Elites get to RUN IT.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 7:59 PM

Questioning your integrity and sniffing you out to see if you are a troll.

/Par for the course, no offense. Carry on.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:08 PM

HAH, AP! HAH! You’re not fooling anyone with that RCP graph! HA troll sesquipedalian/sesquiskedaddle would be the first (and only) to point out that that 52.0 Disapproval number for Obama is actually 52.0 Approval! Exactly as she insisted last year.

Now there was some trolling! And now libfreeorsaywhat announces for the fourth time in a year that he’s leaving. Where have all the good trolls gone (long time passing…)? Or were there ever any?

Yeah. Another slow-except-for-Ukraine-news day.

de rigueur on February 20, 2014 at 8:08 PM

The GOP will do the amnesty thing after the election during the lame duck if anything. They don’t want to depress turnout in November and December gives them enough time for them to convince the base that amnesty was a good thing. Of course their base may end up only being illegal aliens at that point.

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 8:08 PM

None of which factors in a GOP dead set on destroying their own base, of course.

Midas on February 20, 2014 at 7:59 PM

I’m working on a new parody to be titled “I Want a New Base”, to the tune of Huey Lewis’s “I Want a New Drug”. I think it will be sung by Boehner with Miss Lucy accompanying.

slickwillie2001 on February 20, 2014 at 8:15 PM

Obviously you haven’t seen Michelle beat the ever loving sh*t out of him..

Fortunately, we have http://www.michellesmirror.com to document his fagginess.

He’ll step down and feign illness before his term is complete. And NO, there will no third term for Obama. That’s a leftists fantasy.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:05 PM

Only way I see him not at least ATTEMPTING third term at this point is that he has so SOILED his credibility that it will cause INSTANT Rebellion.

This is all up to George Soros, not Obama…

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:15 PM

Questioning your integrity and sniffing you out to see if you are a troll.

/Par for the course, no offense. Carry on.

Key West Reader on February 20, 2014 at 8:08 PM

Check my deeper history, you will find I am no troll.

Well, GOPe probably consider me one…

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:16 PM

Either way, the senators up in 2016 who stand the greatest risk of losing as follows:

Marco Rubio (FL), Mark Kirk (IL), Kelly Ayotte (NH), Pat Toomey (PA), Rob Portman (OH), Richard Burr (NC), and Ron Johnson (WI).

All these states went blue or were very close in 2012. All of these senators are “freshmen” in the senate.

The rest of the GOP senators in 2016 are all in fairly red states and will most likely not be flipping.

In a really bad year the GOP could lose longtime incumbent Chuck Grassley (IA) and freshmen senators Roy Blunt (MO), Dan Coats (IN).

10 seats that the GOP could lose barring wildcard races. This is why the GOP needs to win BIG this year. But if they pull amnesty BS or whatever else crawls into their stupid heads, they could lose BIG in 2016.

The GOP could gain 10 seats this year and still lose the senate in 2016 if only 5 seats flip with the democrat VP breaking ties.

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 8:18 PM

A statistical projection is nice, but ultimately you still have to name the seats that will actually flip.

Based on RCP polling, the GOP should pick up MT, essentially guaranteed, and that’s it. Every other seat they want to pick up is going to be competitive if we rate competitiveness as being within 5 points.

Frequently mentioned among potential GOP pickups are IA and AK, both of which the Democrats have a +5 or greater margin in — margins that are by no means guarantees of victories for them, but hardly constitute likelihoods of pick-ups. Polling of NH suggests that its vulnerability is overstated, and VA shows the Democrats with a commanding lead.

If we look at the currently competitive seats, the GOP currently holds slim advantages in AR, LA, and MI, but is losing CO. The GOP’s one vulnerable incumbent is in KY, who holds a slight lead in the average, but could very easily lose.

If the election were held today, it looks like a 4-seat GOP pickup, 2 short of the number needed to take back the Senate. Worst-case scenario, the GOP manages a draw and neither gains nor loses seats. If the GOP is going to win the Senate this year, it’s going to need to make a few more seats genuinely competitive over the next few months — a feasible task, but by no means a fait accompli.

Stoic Patriot on February 20, 2014 at 8:19 PM

And the polls in 2012 predicted a Romney landslide. Pffft!

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 8:26 PM

Bwahahahahahahha

New Boss Same As The Old Boss

roflmmfao

donabernathy on February 20, 2014 at 8:27 PM

And the polls in 2012 predicted a Romney landslide. Pffft!

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 8:26 PM

Only UnskewedPolls.com did. Gallup and Rasmussen showed an even race or a slight Romney lead in their final polling, while state-level polling showed the Romney wipeout that actually resulted fairly accurately (although was still slightly generous to Romney).

Stoic Patriot on February 20, 2014 at 8:27 PM

If the Republican party doesn’t change leadership I’m not sure what having the senate is going to accomplish. Obama will veto something and the Republicans will just cave, like they are now. The Democratic Party needs to be defeated in this next election. They need to be defeated so badly that they will actually go along with the Republicans on some of this legislation and over-ride those vetoes. These Republicans don’t know how to play that game and we really need leaders who will, not only get people to vote with them, but will make it hard on them if they don’t vote with them.

I’ve watched with total astonishment, the House squander their 2 year majority. Squander it by taking 40 votes to repeal Obamacare. Sign on to continuing resolutions, which kept spending at the inflated levels the Democrats put there right after Obama was elected. Boehner squandered the majority and lost some of it last election because of his ineptness.

There needs to be a leadership change but I’m not sure who’s capable in the House. None of the guys on the present leadership team look like they can do the job so who’s left?

bflat879 on February 20, 2014 at 8:30 PM

Despite what the polls say, Mitt Romney will win by double digits… here’s why

http://www.redstate.com/diary/imperfectamerica/2012/11/03/despite-what-the-polls-say-mitt-romney-will-win-by-double-digits-heres-why/

Why Romney Will Win

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-romney-will-win_660391.html

Romney wins in a landslide — Las Vegas oddsmaker doubles down on prediction

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/09/romney-will-win-in-landslide-las-vegas-oddsmaker-doubles-down-on-prediction/

Mitt Romney will win the presidency with 275 electoral votes

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-will-win-the-presidency-with-275-electoral-votes

Professors’ study predicts Mitt Romney win

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80024.html

Electoral Map: Romney Will Win Presidency With 325 Electoral College Votes

http://www.policymic.com/articles/18479/electoral-map-romney-will-win-presidency-with-325-electoral-college-votes

stingray9813 on February 20, 2014 at 8:32 PM

Stoic Patriot on February 20, 2014 at 8:19 PM

You forgot South Dakota and West Virginia, both whom have Rep candidates running that are popular statewide.

AK was an aberration and Republicans outnumber Democrats there nearly 3 to 1 in most elections. I really don’t think they will vote to keep a guy that voted for Obamacare unless there is a complete incompetent running against him, which is the GOP, so probably.

AR, LA, NC, MT, WV, SD will likely go to the GOP. Recent polling is showing the senators there losing ground and it shows.

CO (D+1), MI (D+4), NH (D+1), and IA (D+1) are going to be close.

Then you have the wildcards of OR, NM, and MN (MN should be closer than it is).

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 8:38 PM

And the polls in 2012 predicted a Romney landslide. Pffft!

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 8:26 PM

The 2012 election was a LOT closer than 2008.

The baseline level of Democrat election fraud added to Pharaoh Baracksees II’s corrupt IRS, NSA, etc suppressing opposition, in my opinion, makes Baracksees II’s second term as illegitimate as his birth.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 8:39 PM

This assumes we wouldn’t field morons as candidates.

nicktjacob on February 20, 2014 at 8:44 PM

This assumes we wouldn’t field morons as candidates.

nicktjacob on February 20, 2014 at 8:44 PM

Given the establishment and tea party records, I say they are about equal in suck-age.

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 8:47 PM

Even if they do retake the Senate, we do know this, at least:

– they will revert the filibuster rules to what they used to be – ‘to be fair’;
– they will do something stupid like agree to let some Democrats run some committees even though they don’t have to – ‘to be fair’;
– they will continue to have ‘bipartisan’ ‘gangs of X’ in order to make sure the Democrats don’t feel excluded from the process – ‘to be fair’.
– John McCain will lecture everyone about how important the ‘comity of the Senate’ is – ‘to be fair’.

The lurch leftward will slow somewhat – but will *not* reverse course.

Should they get the Senate back, they *should* work 24/7 to destroy the Democrats, let them have *nothing*, and unf*cking do all of the corrupt, illegal, unethical, and unconstitutional shit that the Democrats have been up to – and then take steps to ensure it never f*cking happens again.

Won’t happen.

Midas on February 20, 2014 at 9:03 PM

This assumes we wouldn’t field morons as candidates.

nicktjacob on February 20, 2014 at 8:44 PM

We should lock Rove in the closet until after the election then.

Midas on February 20, 2014 at 9:04 PM

And the polls in 2012 predicted a Romney landslide. Pffft!

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 8:26 PM

Only UnskewedPolls.com did. Gallup and Rasmussen showed an even race or a slight Romney lead in their final polling, while state-level polling showed the Romney wipeout that actually resulted fairly accurately (although was still slightly generous to Romney).

Stoic Patriot on February 20, 2014 at 8:27 PM

I stand somewhat corrected, but I still say we’re way too far out to making ANY predictions about the November elections.

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 9:17 PM

Media reports that Obama’s approval numbers improve suddenly in 3…2…1
workingclass artist on February 20, 2014 at 7:42 PM

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

There you from drudge, up to 46%

phatfawzi on February 20, 2014 at 9:18 PM

We should lock Rove in the closet. until after the election then

Midas on February 20, 2014 at 9:04 PM

Fixed.

HiJack on February 20, 2014 at 9:18 PM

With Coulter and Rove leading the charge, no, we won’t. GOP will do whatever needs to be done to be a minority, they seem to be way more than comfortable with the status quo.

Amnesty, anyone?

riddick on February 20, 2014 at 9:25 PM

1 egg, 2 egg, 3…, oh isht.

phatfawzi on February 20, 2014 at 7:33 PM

Exactly.

TXMomof3 on February 20, 2014 at 9:39 PM

Check out Sam Clovis IA at Samclovis.com to take an open seat! A REAL conservative that will join Cruz and Lee in changing DC!

ConcealedKerry on February 20, 2014 at 10:34 PM

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 8:18 PM

Grassley lose???? In what universe?

lovingmyUSA on February 20, 2014 at 11:27 PM

I want a big cushion against 2016. I wouldn’t even consider sacrificing seats now. If The Beast wins I don’t want to be in the same position we are now where we have no power and can only fight symbolically.

MaggiePoo on February 21, 2014 at 12:02 AM

With Coulter and Rove leading the charge, no, we won’t. GOP will do whatever needs to be done to be a minority, they seem to be way more than comfortable with the status quo.
Amnesty, anyone?
riddick on February 20, 2014 at 9:25 PM

If the Grand Old Progressives can blow it, they will. They love Amnesty and will attack their own base to insure not having the responsibility to lead

Brock Robamney on February 21, 2014 at 5:50 AM

Big whoop

The Uniparty controls the senate. Members of the Uniparty will steal your property, tax you to death, and enrich themselves and their buddies.

USSA is circling the drain. Embrace the suck.

Franklin100 on February 21, 2014 at 6:35 AM

Pass any kind of special pathway to citizenship or legalization for illegal aliens, and the Republicans are finished.

I will never vote for a pro-amnesty candidate.

bluegill on February 20, 2014 at 7:49 PM

I think I understand your stance on amnesty and securing the border. I understand our side thinks they will get another 11 million Democrat Voters and increase the welfare state, Chamber of Commerce wants cheaper labour for its constituents, Unions are hoping to gain members and so on.

Three questions if I may.

(1). What do we do with the 11 million plus here illegally? I am not asking for a political answer. I am asking for a personal answer to solve the problem. I find myself giving a political answer when my heart is really leaning another way.

(2). Is there anybody out there (nod to PF fans) who meets your criteria? If not can you be flexible?

(3). Forget politics and let’s put America first…..what is good for America on this issue?

I know the chance of you seeing this post is slim, so I may ask again or if anyone wants to chime in feel free. Hate to keep saying this, but I am not trolling. My posts are way too long, thus if anyone cares about my thoughts please ask. Will not blame anyone for not asking!!!!

HonestLib on February 21, 2014 at 7:22 AM

I don’t think the GOP has done anything to stir the base to come out in sufficient numbers to do this.They have pissed off too many conservatives and haven’t reached out to those that were expected to show up for Romney and didn’t.It’s just not enough anymore for the same old suspects to show up and secure victory.The base has to be energized and the disaffected convinced.Doesn’t look good now,and if they push amnesty they will lose seats in the House and will not regain the Senate.They are going to reap what they have sown.

redware on February 21, 2014 at 8:45 AM

1. Round up every illegal and send them back.Utilize the returning
troops and the National Guard to do so.Build one heck of a big
fence, paid for by the savings realized by illegals no longer
draining our social services.If there is a will,there is a way.

2. Ted Cruz!

3. The GOP is as much an obstacle to the advancement of the
conservative cause as the Socialist Progressives.The former
must be destroyed to defeat the latter.This is what it will
take to put America first.

For the past 40 years I have voted Republican.I have been enthusiastic at times,I have held my nose while doing so as well.
I have subscribed to the “lesser of two evils” strategy-the vote conservative in the primary and Republican in the general.But realistically,the GOP is no longer synonymous with conservative.We are used for our votes,time,and money only to be abused like the victims of domestic violence,the perpetrators of which knowing we will come back for more.There is too much at stake for America to continue this failed approach.We must form a third party which will first make the GOP irrelevant and then fight the Socialist Progressives for the survival of America.
and money,then abused like the victims of domestic violence

redware on February 21, 2014 at 9:06 AM

Democratic seppuku. I like the sound of that.

RebeccaH on February 21, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Two options come to mind for Dear Leader.

1) Create some kind of Wag-The-Dog-War in hopes people will rally around the president in this moment “unprecedented time of crisis”.

2) Create some kind of “unprecedented time of crisis” and suspend the election. I know. That’s so unconstitutional like.

kurtzz3 on February 21, 2014 at 11:19 AM

Then you have the wildcards of OR, NM, and MN (MN should be closer than it is).

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 8:38 PM

Calling these three states wildcards is Texas sized wishcasting that the Dems usually pull.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on February 22, 2014 at 10:27 AM

Related:

This is also my sign off until the semester ends, and who knows if I’ll return after. I’ve got too much work to do, there’s too many things to do off line and posting here has gotten a bit stale. Good wishes to those few people I’ve had the occasional pleasant exchange with, you know who you are. And peace out to the crazies!

libfreeordie on February 20, 2014 at 8:18 AM

Preemptive hiding?

portlandon on February 20, 2014 at 7:45 PM

More likely the sicko stockpiled new nicks during the recent open registration and will be busy using one or more of them.

The troll is too pathologically obsessed with trolling HA to do otherwise.

farsighted on February 23, 2014 at 1:15 PM