Crumble: Ohio poll shows Christie now trailing Hillary by as much as most other Republican candidates

posted at 6:01 pm on February 20, 2014 by Allahpundit

It’s a rare and joyous thing to find a presidential poll this far out from election day that qualifies as newsworthy, but I think this one does for two reasons. One: It’s proof of how far the Bridgegate scandal has penetrated the national consciousness. It’s one thing to find Jersey voters souring on Christie, it’s another thing to find it happening in a state that every president has won for more than 50 years.

Two: There’s no obvious reason to think Christie’s numbers will rebound dramatically before the 2016 campaign begins. He broke from the rest of the Republican pack because he responded well, and in a conspicuously nonpartisan way, to an emergency that couldn’t be blamed on one party or the other. That earned him a reservoir of goodwill from independents and Democrats. If Quinnipiac’s numbers are right, that reservoir is now depleted. What’s going to replenish it by next year? Another big fight with the unions? C’mon.

He’s at 49-36 now in Ohio against Hillary, just about where everyone else in the field is. He doesn’t even pull the best numbers among independents against her. Paul Ryan and Rand Paul each do better.

Secretary Clinton tops Gov. Christie 49 – 36 percent in an early look at the 2016 presidential race in this critical swing state. This compares to results of a November 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Clinton at 42 percent, with Christie at 41 percent

“The George Washington Bridge is not in Ohio, but voters there seem very aware of its traffic problems – and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s traffic problems,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “When Quinnipiac University asked Ohioans in November about Gov. Christie vs. Secretary Hillary Clinton in a 2016 White House race, the two were in a dead heat and voters thought he would make a good president. Today, she enjoys a comfortable double-digit lead and voters say Christie would not be a good president.”

The killer:

cchr

He was at 44/32 on that question in late November. Now his numbers are nearly identical to Rand Paul’s (32/47) and Jeb Bush’s (33/48), and they’re a bit worse than the better-known Paul Ryan’s (36/44). He does worse than both Ryan and Paul among independents here, too. The only thing that distinguishes him from the rest of the field at the moment is that Democrats are still a bit more likely to say he’d make a good president than they are for other Republican. But even there, the gap’s no longer huge: Whereas 18 percent of Dems say so for Christie, 12 percent say so for Bush. And most other GOP candidates do better than Christie with Republicans.

What happens over the next 15 months to change any of this? He was supposed to be running on electability and persona. Increasingly it looks like he’ll be running on just persona. Exit question: Is this a coincidence, or by design?


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Justice!

Ward Cleaver on February 20, 2014 at 6:02 PM

Inevitability!

/

Murphy9 on February 20, 2014 at 6:04 PM

Why is QOTD so early tonight, AP?

ShainS on February 20, 2014 at 6:04 PM

Crumble: Ohio poll shows Christie now trailing Hillary by as much as most other Republican candidates

AP & HotAir hardest hit.

reddevil on February 20, 2014 at 6:07 PM

I’M

NOT

VOTING

FOR

CHRISTIE

TX-96 on February 20, 2014 at 6:09 PM

He’ll still be the nominee. Karl Rove will see to that.

CurtZHP on February 20, 2014 at 6:10 PM

The Guv the Donks really fear is cheesehead Scott Walker.

Watch the Palinization kick into gear (it already has started).

The Fat Man was never more than a RINO mirage.

Bruno Strozek on February 20, 2014 at 6:10 PM

Good.

the_nile on February 20, 2014 at 6:10 PM

Christie crumbled like the Russia men’s hockey team.

Schadenfreude on February 20, 2014 at 6:12 PM

I can’t fathom how anyone could be trailing Cankles.

HotAirian on February 20, 2014 at 6:12 PM

Mmmmm. Yeah. How about…..who cares? Christie never was the pick for true conservatives anyway.

soulmate on February 20, 2014 at 6:12 PM

I think the corrupt political establishment’s best hope to save the status quo would be a Clinton/Christie ticket.

FloatingRock on February 20, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Crumble: Ohio poll shows Christie now trailing Hillary by as much as most other Republican candidates

…it’s ok!…he’ll lose more weight…and be able to catch up!

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

…Or maybe a Clinton/Bush ticket.

FloatingRock on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

Remember when all the Democrat heavyweights decided to sit out 1992 because of how good Bush’s poll numbers were?

We’re better off without any Republican who would be frightened by these numbers.

alchemist19 on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

Who cares?

All we want to know is what Hillary is going to run on.

Anyone?

Bueller?

Del Dolemonte on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

February 20, 2014

Who cares about polls?

jake-the-goose on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

TX-96 on February 20, 2014 at 6:09 PM

Although I do think he’s getting a raw deal on the “bridgegate” bulloney, Christie went into my “now way” column in early 2012 when I found out he supported anti-gun laws, amnesty, global warming and the NYC Mosque.

Flora Duh on February 20, 2014 at 6:17 PM

I WILL VOTE FOR THE GOP NOMINEE

Re-freaking-gardless

jake-the-goose on February 20, 2014 at 6:17 PM

…nothing on Palin and Cruz…huh?

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 6:17 PM

The lesson here should be that candidates WHO DON’T STAND FOR ANYTHING (which defines the moderate) have no base.

But the GOPe will move on to the next “Electable Moderate” instead.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 6:18 PM

All we want to know is what Hillary is going to run on.

Anyone?

Bueller?

Del Dolemonte on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

/HILLARY SCREECH MODE ON

IT IS MY TURN TO BE PRESIDENT DAMMIT AND NO COFFEE FETCHING BOY IS GOING TO TAKE IT AWAY FROM ME THIS TIME!!!!!!!!!!!

/HILLARY SCREECH MODE OFF

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 6:18 PM

“now way s/b “no way”

Flora Duh on February 20, 2014 at 6:19 PM

What happens over the next 15 months to change any of this? He was supposed to be running on electability and persona. Increasingly it looks like he’ll be running on just persona.

He’s lost 100 lbs.

so there’s that…

workingclass artist on February 20, 2014 at 6:20 PM

February 20, 2014

Who cares about polls?

jake-the-goose on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

gummeandpokeme does!…but he’s disappeared!…he was the ultimate pole watcher!

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 6:20 PM

I have a idea, let’s focus on 2014.

idesign on February 20, 2014 at 6:22 PM

…it’s ok!…he’ll lose more weight…and be able to catch up!

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

Between her alcoholic gut, giant cankles and rear end that rivals Moochelle’s I’m not sure Christie Kreme is much heavier.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 6:22 PM

Although I do think he’s getting a raw deal on the “bridgegate” bulloney, Christie went into my “now way” column in early 2012 when I found out he supported anti-gun laws, amnesty, global warming and the NYC Mosque.

Flora Duh on February 20, 2014 at 6:17 PM

So McCain II?

Since the Republican party stupidly goes for the next in line almost every time, we can expect one of the losers from the previous primaries to try and fail up to the nomination.

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 6:23 PM

I can’t fathom how anyone could be trailing Cankles.

HotAirian on February 20, 2014 at 6:12 PM

… except, of course, a slew of dead bodies …

ShainS on February 20, 2014 at 6:24 PM

I have a idea, let’s focus on 2014.

idesign on February 20, 2014 at 6:22 PM

Good thing conservatives can multitask.

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 6:25 PM

Crumble: Ohio poll shows Christie now trailing Hillary by as much as most other Republican candidates

Surrender weasels hardest hit.

He broke from the rest of the Republican pack because he responded well, and in a conspicuously nonpartisan way, to an emergency that couldn’t be blamed on one party or the other.

Sorry, there was nothing nonpartisan about the hugging, gushing admiration, leg humping, and endorsement of Obama. Christie fans clearly are stupid pigs if they can’t see why endorsing the enemy days before the election is partisan and not some “Profiles in Courage” moment. The fat man came out of the closet for Obama. There is no disputing this FACT!

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:27 PM

Good thing conservatives can multitask.

NWConservative on February 20, 2014 at 6:25 PM

Surely you jest.

portlandon on February 20, 2014 at 6:28 PM

Jeb Bush rejoices.

Punchenko on February 20, 2014 at 6:29 PM

Who gives a crap?

The GOP is going to go one of two ways in the next 3 years. It will either maintain the status quo, not motivate anyone other than GOPe voters to get out and vote and thus will not make very many gains in the mid-terms. Hence nothing much in Washington will change.

OR some Conservatives (other than me) will suck it up yet again, sit in the back of the bus, and vote for the same old, same old. This MAY be sufficient enough to give the GOP the Senate next year.

But STILL, nothing much in Washington will change.

Basically, we’re screwed either way.

The point of this little narrative is that America is doomed. Just a question of how long the last few gasps of life will linger on.

Last one in the “Republic” shut off the lights.

Meople on February 20, 2014 at 6:30 PM

I can’t fathom how anyone could be trailing Cankles.

HotAirian on February 20, 2014 at 6:12 PM

You’d be surprised how much candles and a low center of gravity come in handy when pulling a corpse rolled up in a rug. You need the leverage to get the rug up and over the lip of the trunk.

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:33 PM

“I spent all of last week in Washington, D.C.,” he said. “It is great to be back in America.”

“I like to say ‘Sarasota is the new Iowa,’” Gruters said. “If you want to be a serious presidential candidate, you better stop at Palm Beach and you better stop at Sarasota because we have the donors and we have the base activists. My question to everybody is: ‘Go to a rally somewhere else and see how many people you get,’” he said.

Schadenfreude on February 20, 2014 at 6:33 PM

Please run Hillary. I have too many pieces at risk of never being used. ; )

Bmore on February 20, 2014 at 6:35 PM

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:33 PM

Candles not candles. Damn auto spell.

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:35 PM

I WILL VOTE FOR THE GOP NOMINEE

Re-freaking-gardless

jake-the-goose on February 20, 2014 at 6:17 PM

Enjoy amnesty – and nationalized healthcare then.

HondaV65 on February 20, 2014 at 6:35 PM

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:33 PM

Candles not candles. Damn auto spell.

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:35 PM

Damn it the IPad did it again!

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:36 PM

West/Cruz 2016!

ThePrez on February 20, 2014 at 6:36 PM

Damn it the IPad did it again!

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:36 PM

Lolz! You’re not on the iPad. ; )

Bmore on February 20, 2014 at 6:38 PM

The traditional electability argument from the establishment doesn’t hold for 2016. (assuming it ever did) Assuming Hillary is the nominee, I don’t think moderate candidates like Christie or Bush can beat Clinton. To win, we need a candidate that is a sharp contrast to Hillary, someone that stands for something.

midgeorgian on February 20, 2014 at 6:42 PM

Who cares about polls?

jake-the-goose on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

The problem is we heard this repeatedly as an excuse to disqualify every conservative candidate and then heard that they were bogus right up to Romney’s crushing defeat. The bottom line for me is I’m treating polls as the truth, and if the polls show Christie cratering already, this far out, then he’s not electable and it’s time to find someone who is.

Not that this will really stop the GOP leadership, they aren’t interested in electability, they want to push a liberal candidate on us.

Doomberg on February 20, 2014 at 6:42 PM

Jeb Bush rejoices.

Punchenko on February 20, 2014 at 6:29 PM

That’s perfect having the moderates killing off each other.

the_nile on February 20, 2014 at 6:43 PM

If I don’t get a candidate I can actually vote FOR in 2016, rather than just voting AGAINST the raging loon the left trots out, I will not vote.

hollygolightly on February 20, 2014 at 6:44 PM

Lolz! You’re not on the iPad. ; )

Bmore on February 20, 2014 at 6:38 PM

No, I am. Traveling on business this week. Not my favorite way of typing. BTW, the thing wants to make Lolz into Lola.

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:46 PM

I just don’t get how Hillary is ahead of anyone!

bossmanham on February 20, 2014 at 6:46 PM

I just don’t get how Hillary is ahead of anyone!

bossmanham on February 20, 2014 at 6:46 PM

I still don’t get how Obama, with his complete lack of anything resembling a work ethic, and his lack of even average intelligence ended up as anything but a Chicago street thug.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 6:50 PM

…gummeandpokeme does!…but he’s disappeared!…he was the ultimate pole watcher!

KOOLAID2 on February 20, 2014 at 6:20 PM

I’d forgotten about gutmeandpokeme! :)

I just don’t get how Hillary is ahead of anyone!

bossmanham on February 20, 2014 at 6:46 PM

Name recognition, she’s the only ‘rat assumed to be running, the attack ads haven’t run yet, people haven’t had to listen to screeching/cackling for any length of time.

I wouldn’t worry. She won’t be the nominee.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 6:58 PM

I wonder what Hotair will say when Hillary wins in 2016 against a much more conservative candidate than Christie.

They will say, . . . %$#)&*^@!%&* not another four year of socialism!

Christie was far from perfect, but he would have been a lot better than having Cankles and Slick Willie back in the White House. The only difference between the odious lefty characters in orbit around Obama, and the odious lefty characters in orbit around the Clintons, is that those around the Clintons are more competent in the exercising of their lefty ideology.

Which, if you are a conservative, is bad.

HugoDrax on February 20, 2014 at 6:59 PM

Welp, there goes the one argument for his nomination.

Lamont Cranston on February 20, 2014 at 7:00 PM

I still don’t get how Obama, with his complete lack of anything resembling a work ethic, and his lack of even average intelligence ended up as anything but a Chicago street thug.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 6:50 PM

Education system, black culture worship, media 24/7 and the biggie – white guilt.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 7:02 PM

I wonder what Hotair will say when Hillary wins in 2016 against a much more conservative candidate than Christie.

HugoDrax on February 20, 2014 at 6:59 PM

“At least we didn’t lose as badly as we would have with Christie.”

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:03 PM

I still don’t get how Obama, with his complete lack of anything resembling a work ethic, and his lack of even average intelligence ended up as anything but a Chicago street thug.

ConstantineXI on February 20, 2014 at 6:50 PM

I don’t get how you don’t think that he’s anything but a Chicago street thug.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:03 PM

West/Cruz 2016!

ThePrez on February 20, 2014 at 6:36 PM

Personally, I’d like to see West as Speaker of the House. Speaker doesn’t have to be a member of Congress, after all.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:04 PM

Surely you jest.

portlandon on February 20, 2014 at 6:28 PM

Who are you calling Shirley, you racist.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:05 PM

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a “unity” ticket of Clinton/Christie. The left gets a couple of statists in there, and gets a genuine anti-conservative attack dog to keep Clinton’s hands clean.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:08 PM

“At least we didn’t lose as badly as we would have with Christie.”

That’s the denial. That’s the delusion. That’s like the democrats saying in 2000, that had they ran a solid lefty like Ralph Nader, they could have beat Bush.

That’s right. That is why the GOP lost the last two elections, because what America keeps saying it wants in all those polls is a right-wing candidate, and since the GOP offered none, America decided the next best option was a hardcore lefty.

HugoDrax on February 20, 2014 at 7:08 PM

Who are you calling Shirley, you racist.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:05 PM

Surely he’s not a racist.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 7:10 PM

That’s the denial. That’s the delusion.

HugoDrax on February 20, 2014 at 7:08 PM

Dude. Can you look in your crystal ball and give me some stock picks?

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:11 PM

HugoDrax on February 20, 2014 at 7:08 PM

Hugo, do us a fvckin’ favor and let the adults discuss this. You go play in traffic, or something.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 7:11 PM

Surely he’s not a racist.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 7:10 PM

I jest … very obliquely.

besser tot als rot on February 20, 2014 at 7:13 PM

That was a joke as well, better dead.

Lanceman on February 20, 2014 at 7:19 PM

If conservatives divide their vote up among 3 or 4 candidates the “moderates” will unite behind one candidate and prevail again. At least that is what usually happens in Republican primaries.

shubalstearns on February 20, 2014 at 7:27 PM

Ann Coulter cries into her blankie!

searcher on February 20, 2014 at 7:39 PM

He’ll still be the nominee. Karl Rove will see to that.

CurtZHP on February 20, 2014 at 6:10 PM

Naaaah! Even The Pillsbury Ro-boy is smart enough to see that Jersey Tubby One is damaged goods. He will probably focus on Jebadiah : The Next Mr. Electable!

cableguy615 on February 20, 2014 at 7:39 PM

No, I am. Traveling on business this week. Not my favorite way of typing. BTW, the thing wants to make Lolz into Lola

Happy Nomad on February 20, 2014 at 6:46 PM

On that note, it’s time to blow the dust off a Kinky classic !

cableguy615 on February 20, 2014 at 7:54 PM

I don’t believe Christie will be the nominee so I’m enjoying all the effort from the Democrats to ruin him. First, it shows them for the nasty people they are and it also means that the real candidate will have a lot less thrown at him/her because the Democrats will have played the game once too often.

I wonder if someone can add in the names of a few more Republicans unlikely to make it in 2016. ALl you have to do to get the Democrats buzzing is take a poll and show him/her ahead of Hillary. Then, they’ll be spending all this money to go after them and have less money to go after the real candidate. Sounds like a plan to me!!!!!!!

bflat879 on February 20, 2014 at 8:17 PM

If conservatives divide their vote up among 3 or 4 candidates the “moderates” will unite behind one candidate and prevail again. At least that is what usually happens in Republican primaries.

shubalstearns on February 20, 2014 at 7:27 PM

Don’t overlook the fact that the reason conservatives didn’t or couldn’t unite behind a single candidate is because all the supposedly candidates conservatives had to choose from in both 2008 and 2012 all had huge flaws, and it became a matter of trying to discern which of the available choices was the least unacceptable. In 2016 we’ve got a field of candidates who might actually be worth voting for. That’s a marked different from the past few elections, and a cause to believe history is not necessarily doomed to repeat itself.

alchemist19 on February 20, 2014 at 8:25 PM

Bwahahahahaha

The Fat Man Has No Clothes

roflmmfao

donabernathy on February 20, 2014 at 8:28 PM

Don’t overlook the fact that the reason conservatives didn’t or couldn’t unite behind a single candidate is because all the supposedly candidates conservatives had to choose from in both 2008 and 2012 all had huge flaws, and it became a matter of trying to discern which of the available choices was the least unacceptable. In 2016 we’ve got a field of candidates who might actually be worth voting for. That’s a marked different from the past few elections, and a cause to believe history is not necessarily doomed to repeat itself.

alchemist19 on February 20, 2014 at 8:25 PM

So it’s your contention that with a bunch of clunker candidates in 2008 and 2012 the conservative vote was split but with a plethora of quality candidates in 2016 the conservative vote won’t be split? I’m not sure I follow that.

Lamont Cranston on February 20, 2014 at 9:00 PM

Typical TruCon on Hot Air: “Thank God Christie is slipping in the polls, now we can get a real conservative to run against Hillary”. And of course, all the “real conservative” candidates are doing even worse against Hillary than Christie, except Paul Ryan, who is estimation of most of the commentators here, is also a RINO heretic who should be hung from the nearest tree. I wish people here would stop assuming 90% of the country agrees with them and thinks Ted Cruz is the next coming of Christ, it is simply delusional

Dr.B on February 20, 2014 at 9:23 PM

Who cares?

All we want to know is what Hillary is going to run on.

Anyone?

Bueller?

Del Dolemonte on February 20, 2014 at 6:16 PM

She’s going to run on being the first President with a vagina. And, sadly, that will probably be enough.

Lamont Cranston on February 20, 2014 at 9:46 PM

What happens over the next 15 months to change any of this?

Issuing a public mea culpa to all conservatives for all his transgressions? Vetoing anti-conservative legislation of his own making? Governing with integrity for once?

Of course, if he did all that, the people of New Jersey would literally throw him out on the street.

Myron Falwell on February 20, 2014 at 9:52 PM

I still say only the media liked him not anyone’s base. He may of been the least unacceptable candidate to the most people but was never a front runner. But the Dems had to launch a preemptive attack.

Grunt on February 20, 2014 at 11:20 PM

More than 30 months out. None of it matters. Nobody cares. Massive changes will occur between now and then.

Freelancer on February 21, 2014 at 4:10 PM