HHS: 3.3 million people have now signed up for ObamaCare — but we won’t tell you how many actually paid

posted at 4:41 pm on February 12, 2014 by Allahpundit

I wonder why.

The latest enrollment data from the Obama administration show that 3.3 million people have signed up for private health insurance through federal and state insurance exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act. This figure represents all enrollment from Oct. 1 through Feb. 1. It includes both people who have and have not paid their first month’s premium. Of those people, 1,146,100 selected their health insurance plans in January, meaning there was a 53 percent increase enrollment last month alone.

This makes January the first month that the Obama administration has beaten an enrollment target. Back in September, way before HealthCare.gov’s botched launch, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services projected that 1,059,900 people would sign up for private health insurance in January.

That’s the good news for HHS. Despite anecdotal evidence from some of the state exchanges that enrollment had leveled off in January after the big December pre-deadline surge, federal sign-ups are still sufficiently robust to beat a monthly projection. Which is not to say they’re on target to hit their overall sign-up goal for the first year: They’re still more than a million enrollees shy of where they hoped to be right now thanks to the Healthcare.gov Chernobyl in October and November.

Now, big question. How many of those 3.3 million are paid up and how many are soon to be kicked off the rolls by their insurers because they never ponied up for their first month’s premium? HHS is … less interested in that number.

Five days ago, Bob Laszewski phoned around to insurers and was told that, on average, about 20 percent of new enrollees in each plan have yet to pay their premiums. Apply that to HHS’s figures and they’re overstating sign-ups by more than 600,000 people. Worse, Laszewski says that nonpayment rates tend to be higher for larger insurers than for smaller ones, presumably because the latter have less of a bureaucratic nightmare to sort through after the December enrollment rush and were able to reach out to deadbeats before the payment deadline. If that’s true, the number of soon-to-be canceled enrollments may be even higher. HHS wants you to take away from today’s topline enrollment figure that they made it three-quarters of the way to their target for January 31st despite the horrendous first two months, but depending upon how bad the nonpayment numbers are, they may be closer to one-half of the way there.

Two more footnotes that HHS doesn’t want you to notice. One: The number of young adults who signed up last month was slightly higher than in the months before, which is good news for ObamaCare’s risk pools. The more “young healthies” there are forking over premiums for coverage they don’t really need, the more revenue insurers have to subsidize the old and sick. Even though the percentage is up, though, it’s still not close to where it needs to be. Right now young people make up roughly 25 percent of risk pools; HHS’s target for that group in order to produce sustainable pools by the sign-up deadline on March 31 was 40 percent. They’ll need massive numbers of “young healthies” to bite the bullet over the next seven weeks to make that happen. The deadline next month will probably generate another last-minute enrollment spike, but it’ll have to be enormous to move the dial. See now why they’re doing Youth Enrollment Day? They’ve got an adverse selection problem and not much time to solve it.

Two: This seems like … a lot.

About four-fifths of those choosing health plans to date qualified for financial assistance to help pay their premiums, administration officials said.

Fully 80 percent of sign-ups so far are being subsidized. I say it “seems” like a lot because I looked around for an HHS baseline projection to compare it to and couldn’t find one. If it’s out there, please send it along and I’ll update. A Twitter buddy sent me this piece from November quoting a Kaiser Family Foundation specialist as predicting that only 60 percent or so of enrollees would qualify for financial assistance. Could be that Uncle Sam’s on the hook now for more sugar than he expected, although it stands to reason that people who need subsidies might sign up earlier than people who don’t. If that’s so, then that 80 percent figure will plummet over the next seven weeks as more middle class people finally get around to enrolling. If it isn’t, ObamaCare’s going to end up being even more expensive than we thought.

As for how many enrollees were previously uninsured and how many had coverage before their plans were canceled by ObamaCare, HHS is playing that one close to the vest too. Go figure that if you strip a few million people of insurance, a few million people might sign up for a new insurance product they’re legally required to buy anyway.

Update: Via John Merline and Morgen Richmond, here’s the answer to the subsidies question: CBO estimated that five of every six O-Care enrollees, or 83 percent, would qualify for some sort of subsidy. Today’s four-fifths numbers is right in line with that. See the table below, with markings from Morgen.

In other news, CBO projects that fully 83 percent of ObamaCare consumers will be getting taxpayer money. Sheesh. A good point from Morgen, though: “I’m a little surprised – and skeptical – about the reported numbers because I thought a pretty substantial number of the enrollees were those who had lost existing coverage…and likely to be at an income range where they would not be eligible for a subsidy.”

subs


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Now, big question. How many of those 3.3 million are paid up and how many are soon to be kicked off the rolls by their insurers because they never ponied up for their first month’s premium? HHS is … less interested in that number.
=====

Interesting question,….I dunno!

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 4:46 PM

He won’t even play high-low?

Is it LESS than 1 million?

ConstantineXI on February 12, 2014 at 4:46 PM

Sarah Kliff ‏@sarahkliff 1h

CMS had projected 1,059,900 people would enroll in January. 1,146,071 people actually did. pic.twitter.com/d4h71IPpIt

https://twitter.com/sarahkliff/status/433697357545234433/photo/1/large

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 4:46 PM

This seems like … a lot.

About four-fifths of those choosing health plans to date qualified for financial assistance to help pay their premiums, administration officials said.

You think? But that’s ok. At least they no longer have to suffer from “job lock”.

Doughboy on February 12, 2014 at 4:46 PM

Still in the negative as far as net-insured when you take into account how many peoples had their insurance cancelled last year.

Keep trying central planners. Eventually forced compliance will work!

Defenestratus on February 12, 2014 at 4:47 PM

AP Politics ‏@AP_Politics 1h

About 1 million sign up for health plans in January as market shakes off tech woes, by @AP’s Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar. http://apne.ws/1aVIPIs
===================================================================

Health law sign-ups growing but goal still elusive
By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR
— Feb. 12, 2014 4:41 PM EST
***************************

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wide disparities are emerging among states in health insurance sign-ups, according to an Associated Press analysis of federal enrollment statistics released Wednesday.

The Obama administration says about 1 million people signed up for private insurance under the health law in January, extending a turnaround from early days when a dysfunctional website frustrated consumers.

The new national numbers show that nearly 3.3 million people signed up from last Oct. 1 through Feb. 1.

Although Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius says she’s encouraged that the sign-up campaign is gaining ground,

the government’s initial target of 7 million by the end of March

still seems like a stretch.
(More….)
=============

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/health-law-sign-ups-growing-goal-still-elusive

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 4:52 PM

Go figure that if you strip a few million people of insurance, a few million people might sign up for a new insurance product they’re legally required to buy anyway.

Now you’re just using logic. How dare you.

Bitter Clinger on February 12, 2014 at 4:53 PM

If 80% of people applying are requiring subsidies and the original projection was 60% could it possibly be secondary to the poor economy and large amount of unemployed? I suspect this is playing a large role and will only add to its demise.

Anyone shocked that this is going to cost more than projected was completely deluding themselves. Even without this increased amount of subsidies, it was going to kill us financially.

HughJass on February 12, 2014 at 4:53 PM

HHS: 3.3 million people have now signed up for ObamaCare — but we won’t tell you how many actually paid

Which means most of those signing up are parasites and not those expected to pay for sluts getting free contraception and all the other “freebies” that the GOP establishment refuses to make a scene about when it comes to delivering massive debt to our great great grandkids. Nuns have to pay so that Sandra Fluke can screw without fear of being punished with a child. Hurrah or something!

Happy Nomad on February 12, 2014 at 4:54 PM

Most of these people most likely already had prior insurance, just had to renew because of cancellations due to not meeting new Obamacare policy standards.

sentinelrules on February 12, 2014 at 4:54 PM

If the number was good, it would have been trumpeted by the regime and its media lapdogs.

So the only question is, just how bad is it?

Art Vandelay on February 12, 2014 at 4:55 PM

CMS had projected 1,059,900 people would enroll in January. 1,146,071 people actually did. pic.twitter.com/d4h71IPpIt

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 4:46 PM

Enrollment doesn’t happen until they’ve paid.

Happy Nomad on February 12, 2014 at 4:55 PM

The other question is what is the regime’s target date for single payer?

It was supposed to be a slow roll past the LIVs, but their incompetence scotched that. They’re trying to accomplish the same thing now with their illegal delays.

Art Vandelay on February 12, 2014 at 4:57 PM

I know it’s laughable to think that it would ever happen, but could the House committee subpoena these weasels and squeeze the facts out of them?

Art Vandelay on February 12, 2014 at 4:58 PM

Place your bets…I say no more than 10%. Maybe even a big fat zero for those getting the subsidies. If the numbers were good they’d be crowing.

major dad on February 12, 2014 at 5:00 PM

I know it’s laughable to think that it would ever happen, but could the House committee subpoena these weasels and squeeze the facts out of them?

Art Vandelay on February 12, 2014 at 4:58 PM

The GOP House left town yesterday for a couple weeks (25th?) after punting on debt ceiling.

It’s snowing.

aquaviva on February 12, 2014 at 5:07 PM

The best news? Once you “enroll” and don’t pay, don’t you get kicked off? And technically speaking, you only get one bite at the apple, right? If you don’t pay, you cannot reenroll! The website hasn’t been built to that point yet! So these 20% are screwed–they literally cannot use the exchange anymore.

Vanceone on February 12, 2014 at 5:08 PM

The number of young adults who signed up last month was slightly higher than in the months before, which is good news for ObamaCare’s risk pools.

Yeah … they were mostly the disease-ridden Sandra Fluke types.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on February 12, 2014 at 5:10 PM

ACASignups.net
Tracking Enrollments for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare)
****************************************************************

Exchange QHPs: 3.31M • Other QHPs: 287K • Medicaid/CHIP: (2.40M – 7.33M) • Sub26ers: 3.10M

Total as of February 12, 2014: 9.10M – 14.03 M

Enrollment Period Elapsed: 73.6% • CBO Exchange QHP Projection Attained: 46.9%
=================

With January HHS Report Added, Private QHPs hit 46.9% of Orig. CBO (3.43M)
Submitted by Charles Gaba on Wed, 02/12/2014 – 4:43pm

OK, I’ve scrambled and have updated the Private QHP spreadsheet with the January HHS Report figures.

While the official number as of 02/01 is just shy of 3.3 million, my spreadsheet includes partial updates since February 1st for several states. As a result, the actual current total is at least 3.43 million in all:

3,149,008 from the 46 states which haven’t been separated out between Paid and Unpaid enrollees
169,382 known to be paid enrollments from NV, RI, VT, WA & WI

This adds up to 3,318,390, which is the number that I’m counting towards the “Percent of CBO Projection” total…which I’m now calling 46.9% as of today.

Then, there’s another 119,164 known to be unpaid enrollments from NV, RI, VT, WA & WI

Add these all up and you get a total of 3,437,554.

Add in the 124,220 known Off-Exchange Private QHP enrollments and the 54,814 known SHOP enrollments, and you have a grand total of 3,616,588.

Read more about With January HHS Report Added, Private QHPs hit 46.9% of Orig. CBO (3.43M)
Charles Gaba’s blog
Log in to post comments

HHS: 3.3 Million Private Enrollments through end of January
Submitted by Charles Gaba on Wed, 02/12/2014 – 3:24pm
Source:
HHS Dept. January 2014 ACA Exchange Enrollment Report, 02/12/14 (PDF)

ACASignups.net, 5 days ago:

I’m calling the January HHS Exchange-Based Private QHP Total an even 3.3 Million even as of 2/1/14.

CNBC, moments ago:

A total of 3,299,492 had enrolled in Obamacare plans as of Feb. 1, according to HHS.
==================

http://acasignups.net/

https://twitter.com/charles_gaba

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 5:12 PM

The number is actually 2 bazirrlion but Dog Eater is being a sport and not rubbing it in our faces.

Bishop on February 12, 2014 at 5:18 PM

This is laughable. Everyone knows that it is not working.

SC.Charlie on February 12, 2014 at 5:20 PM

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 4:46 PM

Enrollment doesn’t happen until they’ve paid.

Happy Nomad on February 12, 2014 at 4:55 PM

Happy Nomad: But,…buts,….were deal’n with the Transparency Hopey
Administration,…..the definitions might change,..mid-
stream!!(sarc):)

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 5:20 PM

that’s slightly higher than the Unicorn population, so well done…
Sincerely,
Libiot…

hillsoftx on February 12, 2014 at 5:23 PM

Great news everyone: I won $5,000 in the casino today*

(*excludes losses)

crrr6 on February 12, 2014 at 5:24 PM

OT: Judicial Watch gets map of US assets on day of Benghazi…!

d1carter on February 12, 2014 at 5:20 PM

d1carter:Nice scoop,…excellent intell work:0

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 5:25 PM

These people really are freaking liars.

crrr6 on February 12, 2014 at 5:27 PM

I wonder what would happen if I were to tell my wife I won $5,000 in Vegas…excluding losses, and I don’t know exactly how much I lost.

crrr6 on February 12, 2014 at 5:28 PM

I wonder what would happen if I were to tell my wife I won $5,000 in Vegas…excluding losses, and I don’t know exactly how much I lost.

crrr6 on February 12, 2014 at 5:28 PM

Just keep her in low info status about that.

oldroy on February 12, 2014 at 5:29 PM

Nobody knows who’s paid, because that data is on the backend of the program—-which isn’t written yet. Duh!

Rovin on February 12, 2014 at 5:31 PM

I need someone to explain to me why the number who have paid is a big deal. Are they suppose to pay their first premium when they sign up? Or is it because most of them won’t be paying premiums because we will they will be receiving subsidies?

Cindy Munford on February 12, 2014 at 5:32 PM

Just remember, the ACA won’t cost taxpayers ONE DIME! And everyone will SAVE $2,500 a year on health insurance.

You have King Barack’s word on that!

GarandFan on February 12, 2014 at 5:36 PM

I need someone to explain to me why the number who have paid is a big deal. Are they suppose to pay their first premium when they sign up? Or is it because most of them won’t be paying premiums because we will they will be receiving subsidies?

Cindy Munford on February 12, 2014 at 5:32 PM

Paid means they have a policy. Not paid means they don’t. Paid – Obamacare. Not paid – no Obamacare. HHS keeps quoting the number who have signed up, but not the number who signed up and didn’t pay. Meaning this: If 3.3 million signed up, but only 1.5 million paid, the real number is 1.5 million.

oldroy on February 12, 2014 at 5:37 PM

Paid means they have a policy. Not paid means they don’t. Paid – Obamacare. Not paid – no Obamacare. HHS keeps quoting the number who have signed up, but not the number who signed up and didn’t pay. Meaning this: If 3.3 million signed up, but only 1.5 million paid, the real number is 1.5 million. – oldroy on February 12, 2014 at 5:37 PM

Precisely. This administration is not telling the whole truth ……………. a half truth is an omission, that should be considered to be lie.

SC.Charlie on February 12, 2014 at 5:46 PM

Paid means they have a policy. Not paid means they don’t. Paid – Obamacare. Not paid – no Obamacare.

SILLY RABBIT!

They haven’t paid because they know all President Penlight has to do is YET AGAIN declare the rules have changed, and their policies are good without payment, and Safe Harbor will cover it.

Just another leap to single payer!

Marcola on February 12, 2014 at 6:01 PM

I need someone to explain to me why the number who have paid is a big deal. Are they suppose to pay their first premium when they sign up? Or is it because most of them won’t be paying premiums because we will they will be receiving subsidies?

Cindy Munford on February 12, 2014 at 5:32 PM

Try not paying any of your other insurance policies…. see if they pay your claim. LOL.

CWchangedhisNicagain on February 12, 2014 at 6:07 PM

9 million people are connected with the program.

Republicans need to come up with a plan for that many people are keep quiet.

Thanks

liberalrules on February 12, 2014 at 6:08 PM

The only way the part time saddled with school loans much touted young will buy these policies is if daddy and mommy pay for it.Is this a run on sentence?

docflash on February 12, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Republicans need to come up with a plan for that many people are keep quiet.

liberalrules on February 12, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Someone needs to come up with some grammar. My Gawd.

CWchangedhisNicagain on February 12, 2014 at 6:10 PM

Yup, we are going to have to do sumptin to help those who cannot pay…….

d1carter on February 12, 2014 at 6:11 PM

9 million people are connected with the program.

Republicans need to come up with a plan for that many people are keep quiet.

Thanks

liberalrules on February 12, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Reading comprehension is not your strength.

oldroy on February 12, 2014 at 6:11 PM

Tweets All / No replies

NOLA.com ‏@NOLAnews 9m

The number of Louisianans who have signed up for #Obamacare health plan doubled in January. http://ow.ly/tzkBp
===========================================

Louisiana health care act sign-ups grow to 33,000
**************************************************

By Julia O’Donoghue, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune

on February 12, 2014 at 4:28 PM,
updated February 12, 2014 at 4:41 PM
************************************

The number of Louisiana residents who have signed up for health care through the federal government marketplace nearly doubled in January.

New data shows that 32,800 people in the state had signed up for a health care plan offered through the Affordable Care Act, commonly called Obamacare, as of Feb. 1. That’s about 15,000 more people than were in enrolled in Louisiana at the end of December. Nationally, the number of people enrolling in marketplace health insurance also jumped, from 2 million at the end of December to 3.3 million at the beginning of February.

(More……………)
========================

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/02/louisiana_aca_sign_ups.html#incart_river_default

canopfor on February 12, 2014 at 6:22 PM

HHS: 3.3 million people have now signed up for ObamaCare — but we won’t tell you how many actually paid

Or how many are net new insureds. Remember the whole reason for this lead zeppelin is to extend coverage that didn’t have it before.

eaglephin on February 12, 2014 at 6:29 PM

Ed –
You mean the websites aren’t working perfectly on day one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen sixteen seventeen eighteen nineteen twenty twenty-one twenty-two twenty-three twenty-four twenty-five twenty-six twenty-seven twenty-eight twenty-nine thirty thirty-one thirty-two thirty-three thirty-four thirty-five thirty-six thirty-seven thirty-eight thirty-nine forty forty-one forty-two forty-three forty-four forty-five forty-six forty-seven forty-eight forty-nine fifty fifty-one fifty-two fifty-three fifty-four fifty-five fifty-six fifty-seven fifty-eight fifty-nine sixty sixty-one sixty-two sixty-three sixty-four sixty-five sixty-six sixty-seven sixty-eight sixty-nine seventy seventy-one seventy-two seventy-three seventy-four seventy-five seventy-six seventy-seven seventy-eight seventy-nine eighty eighty-one eighty-two eighty-three eighty-four eighty-five eighty-six eighty-seven eighty-eight eighty-nine ninety ninety-one ninety-two ninety-three ninety-four ninety-five ninety-six ninety-seven ninety-eight ninety-nine one hundred one hundred one one hundred two one hundred three one hundred four one hundred five one hundred six one hundred seven one hundred eight one hundred nine one hundred ten one hundred eleven one hundred twelve one hundred thirteen one hundred fourteen one hundred fifteen one hundred sixteen one hundred seventeen one hundred eighteen one hundred nineteen one hundred twenty one hundred twenty-one one hundred twenty-two one hundred twenty-three one hundred twenty-four one hundred twenty-five one hundred twenty-six one hundred twenty-seven one hundred twenty-eight one hundred twenty-nine one hundred thirty one hundred thirty-one one hundred thirty-two one hundred thirty-three one hundred thirty-four one hundred thirty-five
verbaluce on October 1, 2013 at 10:18 AM

(H/T NotCoach)

Aaaany minute now….

There Goes the Neighborhood on February 12, 2014 at 6:32 PM

9 million people are connected with the program.

Republicans need to come up with a plan for that many people are keep quiet.

Thanks

liberalrules

I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt and assume you mean “or.” I will also give you the benefit of the doubt that you just missed (and not that you couldn’t read) the number was only 3.3 million. FYI, the Republicans have submitted multiple bills that Dingy won’t bring up.

HughJass on February 12, 2014 at 6:41 PM

9 million people are connected with the program.

Republicans need to come up with a plan for that many people are keep quiet.

Thanks

liberalrules on February 12, 2014 at 6:08 PM

I suppose that there’s a coherent idea in there somewhere, but I’m probably wrong.

307wolverine on February 12, 2014 at 8:10 PM

I want to know out of all the people who have paid up, what percentage of them are getting a free government ride.

OxyCon on February 12, 2014 at 11:37 PM

HHS: 3.3 million people have now signed up for ObamaCare – With a Gun To Their Heads.

FIFY

jaydee_007 on February 13, 2014 at 1:18 AM

Let’s see, 7 Million plans cancelled, followed by 3.3 million plans signed up for.

That’s a Delta of Minus 3.7 million.

Can you say “Going Backwards”?

jaydee_007 on February 13, 2014 at 1:20 AM

9 million people are connected with the program.

Republicans need to come up with a plan for that many people are keep quiet.

Thanks

liberalrules on February 12, 2014 at 6:08 PM

You really should avoid embarrassing yourself this way.

jaydee_007 on February 13, 2014 at 1:21 AM

Basically they needed 4 million old and 3 million young for this to work.

If we are generous and get them to 5 million total and 30% young, the numbers look like this…..3.5 million old and 1.5 million young. In other words, they only reached half their needed numbers of young. And these are very generous numbers I am giving.

KMav on February 13, 2014 at 3:32 AM