American Crossroads: Our polls show Senate is “up for grabs”

posted at 10:41 am on February 7, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Can Republicans take control of the US Senate in November? One Republican PAC thinks the path is wide open, and perhaps wider than some may think. According to their polling, Republican challengers lead or tie with current Democratic incumbents in six states already, and in two more Democrats are so weak as to be in serious trouble.  American Crossroads CEO Steven Law sent out this memo earlier today:

Virtually all Democrat incumbents in red states and purple states are in trouble – either down or tied in head-to-head contests with their likely GOP opponents, or upside down in approval ratings:

  • In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton leads incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Pryor 42-36. Pryor’s job approval is upside-down, with 37% approving and 40% disapproving of the way he is handling his job as senator.
  • In Alaska, Democrat Sen. Mark Begich trails both major GOP candidates, Mead Treadwell and Dan Sullivan, by six points (47-41). Begich is also upside-down, with 47% disapproving of his job as senator, and 41% approving.
  • In Montana, GOP Rep. Steve Daines leads Democrat Lt. Gov. John Walsh by 14 points (43-29) – and leads former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger by 43-32%.
  • Louisiana voters do not like Mary Landrieu. 51% disapprove of the way she is handling her job, with only 40% favorable. AMAZINGLY, while she generates 42% support on the initial ballot in Louisiana (Louisiana has an open initial ballot where if no one gains 50% support, a two-candidate ballot follows) she only moves to 44% in a head-to-head against likely GOP candidate, Rep. Bill Cassidy. Cassidy leads a head to head 45-44, with 11% not sure. (Fully 46 percent of voters don’t have an opinion on Cassidy.)
  • In Michigan, Republican Terri Lynn Land leads Democrat Rep. Gary Peters 42-37 – while President Obama is underwater in his approval rating 38%-52%.
  • In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan is viewed by 37% favorably and 49% unfavorably. She ties likely GOP candidate Thom Tillis 44-44.
  • Finally, in New Hampshire, Democrat Sen. Jean Shaheen leads former Sen. Scott Brown 40-35% in a hypothetical matchup – even as she is one of the few democratic incumbents with a net positive impression among her voters. Dragging her down to 40 in the head-to-head? The 22% net disapproval for President Obama (57-35) and a staggering 28% disapproval of the Obamacare law, with 60% disapproving of it and only 32% approving of the law.

Let’s start by reminding everyone that interest-group polling — at least those results that get released — usually supports the position of the interest group. American Crossroads, a PAC that raises money and campaigns for Republicans, does a lot of polling as part of their work. That doesn’t mean the polls are wrong, but it’s information that people need to keep in mind as part of their credibility. And it’s still very early in the cycle to get too sanguine about a wave election coming, even if the portents look strong.

What makes this a little more compelling is another analysis from earlier in the week by Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post. A major factor in midterm elections is the standing of the President among the various constituencies in play. Cillizza looked at Barack Obama’s approval rating in the states that will elect Senators in this cycle — and the news looks even worse for Democrats than American Crossroads suggests:

If the 2014 election is a referendum on President Obama, Democrats are in deep trouble.

That’s according to a new state-by-state study of Obama’s job-approval ratings released by Gallup that puts his disapproval rating at over 50 percent in 10 of the 21 states where Democrats are defending Senate seats this fall. In many of those states, Republicans have recruited strong candidates and are preparing to spend big bucks to win the six seats they need to regain the majority.

Obama is deeply unpopular — with a disapproval rating higher than 55 percent — in five states: West Virginia (67.3 percent disapproval), Montana (60.9 percent), South Dakota (59.3 percent), Arkansas (57 percent) and Alaska (55.4 percent).

Beyond those five seats, there is a second tier of states where the president’s disapproval rating stands somewhere between 50 percent and 55 percent, including: Iowa (50.1 percent disapproval), New Hampshire (50.2 percent), North Carolina (50.4 percent), Colorado (51.2 percent) and Louisiana (53.9 percent).

Colorado doesn’t get a mention from American Crossroads, but Quinnipiac suggests that Mark Udall will have big trouble holding his seat. He’s in a statistical tie with Tea Party candidate Ken Buck and several other potential Republican challengers:

With large gender gaps, Colorado voters approve 45 – 41 percent of the job Sen. Mark Udall is doing, but are divided 42 – 42 percent on whether he deserves reelection this year. Women approve 51 – 32 percent and say 48 – 31 percent he deserves reelection. Men disapprove 49 – 40 percent and say 52 – 36 percent he does not deserve reelection.

Looking at the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Colorado, Sen. Udall gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Republican District Attorney Ken Buck. In other possible matchups:

  • Udall gets 43 percent to 41 percent for State Sen. Randy Baumgardner;
  • Udall edges State Sen. Owen Hill 44 – 39 percent;
  • Udall has 43 percent to State Rep. Amy Stephens with 41 percent;
  • Udall tops businessman Jaime McMillan 45 – 38 percent.

“Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Udall may be the front-runner, but he can hear the footsteps of three challengers, all within a few percentage points of him,” Malloy said.

Obama’s approval rating in Colorado from Quinnipiac explains this. He’s currently 22 points underwater at 37/59, which means Udall’s doing well just to stay in the mid-40s. On the other hand, Mitch McConnell’s looking a little weak in Kentucky, so Republicans may have to work harder to extend their competitive stance.

If this does turn out to be a referendum on Obama, then American Crossroads will almost certainly be correct. But that depends on the GOP keeping the focus on ObamaCare and executive incompetence and arrogance, rather than on themselves in party-splitting agendas.


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First

wolfplus3 on February 7, 2014 at 10:45 AM

What good is taking the senate if the same leadership like McConnell, Cornyn, etc. is in place?

Just because the GOP takes the senate, doesn’t mean that conservative principles will begin to be ushered in.

The new excuse will be “We can’t fight Obama and the dems now, or we will risk losing the White House in 2016″ instead of “risk losing the 2014 senate”

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 10:48 AM

Obama knows this. Which is why Reid went nuclear on the filibuster so Obama can pack the courts with faculty radicals. And it’s why he is ruling by “pen and phone”.

ConstantineXI on February 7, 2014 at 10:49 AM

The Senate is Stuck On Stupid.

I suggest people vote for individuals who are not Stuck On Stupid.

In EITHER PARTY.

ajacksonian on February 7, 2014 at 10:49 AM

Honestly, a 13 seat pickup is eminently plausible: AK, AR, CO, IA, LA, MI, MN, MT, NH, NC, SD, VA, and WV.

Of course, given that Republicans blew about 8 or 9 great opportunities in the last two cycles, it will probably be several seats lower than that

2YEP598 on February 7, 2014 at 10:50 AM

The 2012 election was to be a referendum on zer0 and his precious healthcare bill. And we all know how that turned out.

MisterElephant on February 7, 2014 at 10:51 AM

Let’s get ready to fumble.

Flange on February 7, 2014 at 10:51 AM

What I am trying to say is that it depends on WHO is in a GOP senate majority. If its the same people, that might not be a good thing. Yeah, Harry Reid may be gone but I guarantee you we would still have debt ceiling increases and the like pushed over the finish line by Republicans

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 10:52 AM

If this does turn out to be a referendum on Obama, then American Crossroads will almost certainly be correct. But that depends on the GOP keeping the focus on ObamaCare and executive incompetence and arrogance, rather than on themselves in party-splitting agendas.

Amnesty…

ladyingray on February 7, 2014 at 10:52 AM

The 2012 election was to be a referendum on zer0 and his precious healthcare bill. And we all know how that turned out.

MisterElephant on February 7, 2014 at 10:51 AM

That is because the GOP refused to make it one, and they were squawking about amnesty. Has anything changed?

melle1228 on February 7, 2014 at 10:52 AM

First

wolfplus3 on February 7, 2014 at 10:45 AM

Around here, the correct term is “Bishop.” Did you not get your orientation packet?

CurtZHP on February 7, 2014 at 10:53 AM

Of course, given that Republicans blew about 8 or 9 great opportunities in the last two cycles, it will probably be several seats lower than that

2YEP598 on February 7, 2014 at 10:50 AM

Yep, those establishment RINO Republicans blew those races in red states like Montana and North Dakota. Inexcusable

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 10:54 AM

This reminds of the 2012 polls.

I put zero stock in any poll….

liberalrules on February 7, 2014 at 10:54 AM

Don’t count out Minnesota. Franken has name recognition (and will have plenty of money), but he’s never been a person who is widely respected and only got 42% of the vote in 2008. If the GOP runs the right candidate, that seat is very much in play.

Northside on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.

Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

This is exactly why Boenher and McConnell were trying to push amnesty. The Senate is up for grabs, but the “WHO” is the key… Boehner and McConnell would rather it remain in Democrat hands then TEA Party Senators be elected.

oscarwilde on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

CurtZHP on February 7, 2014 at 10:53 AM

wolfplus3 is being fitted for those lovely cement galoshes. ; )

Bmore on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

I doubt that Republicans are going to win the Senate… They may gain 3-4 seats at most… The most important thing is for Republicans to keep the House and this is very likely…

mnjg on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

I’d like to see the trajectory of the polls over the summer, because that many seats up for grabs sounds a little optimistic. Either way, the result will be more deadlock.

thei3ug on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.

Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Reported as SPAM.

HumpBot Salvation on February 7, 2014 at 10:58 AM

Don’t worry the Republicans will screw it up somehow…

mumbojumbo on February 7, 2014 at 10:59 AM

This reminds of the 2012 polls.

I put zero stock in any poll….

liberalrules on February 7, 2014 at 10:54 AM

Actually, those polls wound up being accurate(much to my chagrin). So will these more than likely. If anything, they probably underestimate the vulnerability of the Dems for several reasons. First, Boehner seems to have wised up and yanked amnesty off the agenda, so there won’t be a fracture within the GOP base heading into November. Second, Obamacare will continue to be a disaster as the rollout continues(especially if Obama doesn’t delay the employer mandate again). And third, the economy is mired in stagnation, so there doesn’t appear to be any lifeline for the Dems coming over the next 9 months.

Doughboy on February 7, 2014 at 10:59 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.

Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

In fact the super vast majority of Republicans in Congress are Social Conservatives… The defeat of some social conservatives senate candidates in 2010 and 2012 does not mean what so ever that social conservatives cannot win… These candidates who lost did so because they were stupid even when advocating a social conservative cause…

mnjg on February 7, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.

Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Who would you like to see run? Just curious.

Mimzey on February 7, 2014 at 11:00 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.

Like those RINO candidates who lost in deep red states like North Dakota and Montana in 2012?

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:00 AM

This is exactly why Boenher and McConnell were trying to push amnesty. The Senate is up for grabs, but the “WHO” is the key… Boehner and McConnell would rather it remain in Democrat hands then TEA Party Senators be elected.

oscarwilde on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

More stupid conspiracy theories…

mnjg on February 7, 2014 at 11:02 AM

I doubt that Republicans are going to win the Senate… They may gain 3-4 seats at most… The most important thing is for Republicans to keep the House and this is very likely…

mnjg on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

They only need to pick up a net gain of 6 to take back the Senate. They did that in 2010(technically it was 7 if you count Scott Brown). And that’s back when Obama and Obamacare were marginally more popular and more Americans blamed Bush and the GOP for the economy than they do now.

The one thing potentially going against the Republicans heading into the 2014 midterms is that the Tea Party/conservative base is a lot more disenchanted with the party leadership than they were 4 years ago. You look back at guys like Boehner and Ryan in 2010 and they were far more popular with conservatives than they are at the moment. I hope their lousy legislative record doesn’t depress turnout.

Doughboy on February 7, 2014 at 11:03 AM

Most believe that “Voter’s Revenge” will do huge damage to the Democrats over Obamacare and the fact that their “leadership” is taking our country in the wrong direction.

Amazingoly on February 7, 2014 at 11:03 AM

Problem is Kentucky. BOTH Republican candidates are tied with the Democrats. There are more Democrats than Republicans in KY. A primary fight does two things. 1: It damages both candidates going into the general. The Democrat is unopposed and has no primary fight. 2: Dollars spent in the primary fight are dollars that can not be spent during the general.

Primarying Mitch McConnell is a perfect example of why the Republicans are the “stupid party”. He is one of THE most conservative Senators. He has over a 90% rating from NRA, National Right to Life, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, and American Conservative Union.

What is REALLY interesting to me are things like the story about how McConnell supposedly said the Tea Party, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee deserve a punch in the nose. McConnell never said that. That meme came from a Breitbart story that came second hand from an anonymous “source” who said that McConnell said that in a conference call. Washington Examiner obtained a recording of that entire phone call. He didn’t say that about those people.

Maybe you have heard a commercial on the Mark Levin show being run by Senate Conservatives Fund lately that repeats that lie. McConnell said that about SCF. He said THEY are acting like schoolyard bullies and deserve a punch in the nose, not Lee, Cruz, and the Tea Party. By repeating that lie even after it was shown to be untrue, they are basically proving McConnell’s point for him. And, by the way, Breitbart has still never corrected that story and it still sits on their website today.

If the Republicans lose KY, and a primary fight might just result in the Republicans losing it, KY will be lumped in with DE, NV, IN, and CO where the far right has primaried an “establishment” candidate who initially was polling to win the election and went on to get the Democrat elected.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/exclusive-mitch-mcconnell-did-not-criticize-tea-party-in-conference-call-to-donors/article/2539647

crosspatch on February 7, 2014 at 11:04 AM

But that depends on the GOP keeping the focus on ObamaCare and executive incompetence and arrogance, rather than on themselves in party-splitting agendas.

Tell that to the so-called centrists. The establishment surrender weasels who would rather cave than stand up for conservative principles.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:04 AM

Oh, and one other thing. The Democrats are now pouring cash into the primary campaign of the “Tea Party” candidate in Georgia, too. In Georgia both candidates are also tied with the Democrat. The DNC is broke and this dividing of the Republican money to spend it against itself is a godsend to Debbie Whatshername-Shultz.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2013/08/24/democrats-meddle-gop-primaries-helping-extreme-candidates-who-are-easier-beat/0luntngpRfBd7xjBTAQAML/story.html

crosspatch on February 7, 2014 at 11:06 AM

….now if we just keep the Angle’s, Mourdock’s, O’Donnell’s and Aiken’s away screwing this up.

Tater Salad on February 7, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Her are some suggestions for the GOP midterm
campaigns for the Senate and the House ;
a) If Obama disapproves of Keystone, run on pro- Keystone
platforms.
b) run against Obamacare.
c) run on the promise to strengthen Iran sanctions so that
they can choke the life out of Iran`s gangster regime.

Swedish Patriot on February 7, 2014 at 11:06 AM

who let the dogs in ?

gracie on February 7, 2014 at 11:06 AM

The one thing potentially going against the Republicans heading into the 2014 midterms is that the Tea Party/conservative base is a lot more disenchanted with the party leadership than they were 4 years ago. You look back at guys like Boehner and Ryan in 2010 and they were far more popular with conservatives than they are at the moment. I hope their lousy legislative record doesn’t depress turnout.

Doughboy on February 7, 2014 at 11:03 AM

I live in Texas and am very disenchanted with GOP leadership… I campaigned hard for Cruz in 2012 and he won.

But if Cornyn gets the nomination I will refuse to vote for him… I will vote 3rd party. I refuse to enable the GOP establishment, I refuse to hold my nose and vote for non-conservatives.

I am tired of hearing radio ads during Rush/Mark Levin of John Cornyn touting how anti-Obama he is and how he fights Obama. He is good at talking the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk. Notice how all his campaign ads are anti-Obama and how bad Obama is, instead of John Cornyn accomplishments. That’s because he hasn’t done anything of substance to brag about.

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:07 AM

Don’t count out Minnesota. Franken has name recognition (and will have plenty of money), but he’s never been a person who is widely respected and only got 42% of the vote in 2008. If the GOP runs the right candidate, that seat is very much in play.

Northside on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Oh please! It’s Minnesota where Democrats have trunkloads of votes ready to be found and the lizard people.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:08 AM

Problem is Kentucky. BOTH Republican candidates are tied with the Democrats. There are more Democrats than Republicans in KY. A primary fight does two things. 1: It damages both candidates going into the general. The Democrat is unopposed and has no primary fight. 2: Dollars spent in the primary fight are dollars that can not be spent during the general.

Primarying Mitch McConnell is a perfect example of why the Republicans are the “stupid party”. He is one of THE most conservative Senators. He has over a 90% rating from NRA, National Right to Life, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, and American Conservative Union.

crosspatch on February 7, 2014 at 11:04 AM

If Mitch McConnell is such a reliable conservative, then he should have no problem winning his primary, right? Besides, I don’t think it’s his voting record that has the base so PO’d. It’s that he’s been an inept Senate Minority Leader and the prospect of him being promoted to Majority Leader next year scares a lot of conservatives.

And one other thing. This is Kentucky. Grimes ain’t winning the general election. People were freaking out over Rand Paul getting the nomination 4 years ago and he won his race in a walk.

Doughboy on February 7, 2014 at 11:08 AM

….now if we just keep the Angle’s, Mourdock’s, O’Donnell’s and Aiken’s away screwing this up.

Tater Salad on February 7, 2014 at 11:06 AM

Why do people always refer to this group, instead of the likes of Denny Rehberg and Rick Berg, who lost in deep red states Montana and North Dakota? Or Tommy Thompson/Connie Mack/Heather Wilson/Dino Rossi/John Raese who lost in winnable purple states in 2012.

Probably because it doesn’t advance their anti-tea party pro-establishment agenda.

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:09 AM

Karl Rove’s group? Let me guess: As long as people goose-step behind Rove’s tiny group of crony capitalist GOP establishment statists we republicans have a clear path to victory.

Uhh! Bullsh!t!

These people have done more harm to conservatism than Obama and Reid could ever do..

conservativeBC on February 7, 2014 at 11:10 AM

I am tired of hearing radio ads during Rush/Mark Levin of John Cornyn touting how anti-Obama he is and how he fights Obama.

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:07 AM

Yeah he really stood out when he supported Ted Cruz’s filibuster of Obamacare…….. oh wait, he was one of them out there taking pot shots at Cruz.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:10 AM

If the Republicans lose KY, and a primary fight might just result in the Republicans losing it, KY will be lumped in with DE, NV, IN, and CO where the far right has primaried an “establishment” candidate who initially was polling to win the election and went on to get the Democrat elected.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/exclusive-mitch-mcconnell-did-not-criticize-tea-party-in-conference-call-to-donors/article/2539647

crosspatch on February 7, 2014 at 11:04 AM

The most recent polling shows McConnell down by 4 to Democrat Grimes, while Matt Bevin is beating Democrat Grimes.

Looks like we need to take the advice RINOs always give us and go with the more electable candidate, Matt Bevin.

Can you name ONE conservative, limited government accomplishemnt Mitch McConnell has fought for, and won, since becoming Senate Minority Leader?

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:12 AM

Given the current crop of Republicans, especially with McConnell at the helm, it’s hard for me to get too excited. Yeah, I get the fact that the Dems are probably even worse (in some cases only slightly so) but that’s hardly a huge motivator. “Vot for me, I’m less awful than the other guy!”. I don’t see any overarching strategy to get the country back on track and I frankly have no idea what the Republicans even plan to do other than continued relentlessly pushing for amnesty.

I hate to sound so negative but it really is depressing and frankly angering to have an opposition party which provides no real opposition and no leadership in a positive direction.

Paperclips on February 7, 2014 at 11:13 AM

I am trying to remember. Is this the same American Crossroads that made a bunch of silly predictions in the last presidential election?

The same American Crossroads that dumped tons of money into a losing effort?

Don’t get me wrong. If people actually show up to vote, Republicans can and will win the senate. But it will have almost zero to do with AC.

I only wonder what foolish moves the whiteboard army will make before then to drag defeat from the jaws of victory.

Oh yeah, and there’s what they will do with victory if and when they get it.

Marcus Traianus on February 7, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Yeah he really stood out when he supported Ted Cruz’s filibuster of Obamacare…….. oh wait, he was one of them out there taking pot shots at Cruz.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:10 AM

The John Cornyn way – Work behind the scenes to defeat conservatives and work behind the scenes to prevent conservative principles from being advanced or help liberal legislation get pushed through, then when it comes to voting, vote the “conservative” way.

He then goes on to tout a very conservative voting record.

I hope Texas conservatives aren’t dumb enough to fall for this dog and pony show. Behind the scenes he is active in defeating liminted government principles and pushing the big government RINO agenda.

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:15 AM

Did you notice that Ed didn’t mention Rove one time in his piece?

It is a testament as to how toxic his brand has become…

conservativeBC on February 7, 2014 at 11:16 AM

Probably because it doesn’t advance their anti-tea party pro-establishment agenda.

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:09 AM

Probably because Berg or Mack didn’t lose by saying or doing stupid things. Put another way, Todd Akin didn’t lose because he was a tea party member; he lost because he said about the most stupid thing you could say to a question so expected that he should have been able to respond to in his sleep. That he’s a white male only doubled down on the stupid.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:16 AM

Are we talking about the same American Crossroads founded by
Karl ‘Ohio’ Rove? A man with a 1% election win percentage?
Nothing to see here. Next….

Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 11:18 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.

Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

Panther is that you?

God, I get so sick of this BS along with tru-on BS. EVERYONE is a phuckin social voter.

melle1228 on February 7, 2014 at 11:18 AM

Now . . . with a 1st and goal on the 1 foot line, watch the Republicans fumble.

rplat on February 7, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Don’t worry the Republicans will screw it up somehow…

mumbojumbo on February 7, 2014 at 10:59 AM

Quite agree.

crankyoldlady on February 7, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Any politician worth their salt will relish a primary.

It gives them a chance to get name recognition, show up locally and set the election agenda items early.

It gives them a chance to sharpen their talking points and parry attacks.

Any politician that fears a primary deserves one.

They all deserve one.

ajacksonian on February 7, 2014 at 11:21 AM

I sure hope we can take the seat in Colorado. Hopefully the Liberals will be too doped up from smoking MJ to fill out their ballets.

MrLogistics on February 7, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Probably because Berg or Mack didn’t lose by saying or doing stupid things. Put another way, Todd Akin didn’t lose because he was a tea party member; he lost because he said about the most stupid thing you could say to a question so expected that he should have been able to respond to in his sleep. That he’s a white male only doubled down on the stupid.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:16 AM

They lost because people weren’t excited about voting for them because they were lifelong career politicians.

My point is that establishment career politician candidates are a risk because people aren’t going to get excited about voting for them and may refuse to vote for them becuase they are part of the problem.

I guarantee you no one is excited about Bill Cassidy in LA.

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:22 AM

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:07 AM

welcome aboard. I totally agree with you about Cornyn too. I’m leaning Stovall but Stockman doesn’t bother me either.

And I also don’t want McConnell in charge either. He is CofC and they seem to have turned on us.

DanMan on February 7, 2014 at 11:22 AM

What good is taking the senate if the same leadership like McConnell, Cornyn, etc. is in place?

Just because the GOP takes the senate, doesn’t mean that conservative principles will begin to be ushered in.

The new excuse will be “We can’t fight Obama and the dems now, or we will risk losing the White House in 2016″ instead of “risk losing the 2014 senate”

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 10:48 AM

But conservatives will have more leverage against RINOs than they will against Dems.

crankyoldlady on February 7, 2014 at 11:22 AM

Prediction … GOP takes Senate by 51-49. One GOPe will then become upset at something … change to Dem/Ind. Dems back in control w/Biden casting vote for Reid majority leader.

Dec_of_Ind on February 7, 2014 at 11:23 AM

Oregon? Why should Merkel be a shoe-in?

KW64 on February 7, 2014 at 11:24 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.
Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

You mean like Ted Cruz?

Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 11:24 AM

If the Republicans lose KY, and a primary fight might just result in the Republicans losing it, KY will be lumped in with DE, NV, IN, and CO where the far right has primaried an “establishment” candidate who initially was polling to win the election and went on to get the Democrat elected.

We are going to be OK in Kentucky. McConnell is going to win the primary and the general. He is sitting on a campaign fortune that will overwhelm his opponents, and the primary is early enough to not disrupt the general election.

matthew8787 on February 7, 2014 at 11:25 AM

Yeah, but this is all pre-national media involvement.

When the national media sees a Dem in trouble, they go to work on the opponent. Especially, if it is some arm waving socon.

Ask them stuff about women and abortion. Gays and popular culture. Get a narrative established about what a knuckle dragger they are.

Moesart on February 7, 2014 at 11:27 AM

This is exactly why Boenher and McConnell were trying to push amnesty. The Senate is up for grabs, but the “WHO” is the key… Boehner and McConnell would rather it remain in Democrat hands then TEA Party Senators be elected.

oscarwilde on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

This point (bolded above) awakens the currently-growing conspiracy half of my brain. Considering the bipartisan support for NDAA and recent news that the USPS is now buying weapons (after the Dept of Edu did), are the dots connecting? Is our guv prepping for pitchforks and torches? Civil unrest?

Could some of you HA smarticles pls debate oscarwilde’s point.

And a riddle:

Q: What do Dept of Edu and USPS have in common?

A: They are quasi-guv employees, conveniently dispersed across the land, that are not encumbered by the ‘rule’ prohibiting taking up arms against the citizens.

Tsar of Earth on February 7, 2014 at 11:28 AM

Now . . . with a 1st and goal on the 1 foot line, watch the Republicans fumble.
rplat on February 7, 2014 at 11:20 AM

Can you say Amnesty?

Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 11:30 AM

Waiting for the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by running SOCON candidates that can’t win a general election. SOCONS are just as ignorant as Obamabots.
Bandit13 on February 7, 2014 at 10:55 AM

You mean like Ted Cruz?
Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 11:24 AM

This asinine, counter-productive civil war among GOP factions helps no one but Democrats.

Tea Party types must recognize that they can push an electorate in Blue and Purple states only so far — witness the losses of Angle, Akin, O’Donnell, and so forth.

Conversely, establishment GOP types must recognize that you have to rally your base to win a general… witness the stupidity of Rick Berg

It all depends on the State in question.

Can’t we be content with a Big Tent and follow Reagan’s 11th Commdandment until after November 4, 2014? Are we grown up enough to do this?

matthew8787 on February 7, 2014 at 11:31 AM

Problem is Kentucky. BOTH Republican candidates are tied with the Democrats. There are more Democrats than Republicans in KY. A primary fight does two things. 1: It damages both candidates going into the general. The Democrat is unopposed and has no primary fight. 2: Dollars spent in the primary fight are dollars that can not be spent during the general.

Unlike McConnell, Bevin has huge upside. He gains more in the polls the more he gets known. That’s unlike McConnell who has universal name ID and polls as bad as or worse than Obama. If McConnell were truly interested in keeping KY red, he would retire and we could save all of the money being spent for the general.

Primarying Mitch McConnell is a perfect example of why the Republicans are the “stupid party”. He is one of THE most conservative Senators. He has over a 90% rating from NRA, National Right to Life, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, and American Conservative Union.

No he doesn’t have over 90% in all those groups. Check them again. His Heritage Action shore is in the 70s and their scoring is much more thorough.

What is REALLY interesting to me are things like the story about how McConnell supposedly said the Tea Party, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee deserve a punch in the nose. McConnell never said that. That meme came from a Breitbart story that came second hand from an anonymous “source” who said that McConnell said that in a conference call. Washington Examiner obtained a recording of that entire phone call. He didn’t say that about those people.

When you attack SCF, you attack the Tea Party.

Maybe you have heard a commercial on the Mark Levin show being run by Senate Conservatives Fund lately that repeats that lie. McConnell said that about SCF. He said THEY are acting like schoolyard bullies and deserve a punch in the nose, not Lee, Cruz, and the Tea Party. By repeating that lie even after it was shown to be untrue, they are basically proving McConnell’s point for him. And, by the way, Breitbart has still never corrected that story and it still sits on their website today.

If the Republicans lose KY, and a primary fight might just result in the Republicans losing it, KY will be lumped in with DE, NV, IN, and CO where the far right has primaried an “establishment” candidate who initially was polling to win the election and went on to get the Democrat elected.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/exclusive-mitch-mcconnell-did-not-criticize-tea-party-in-conference-call-to-donors/article/2539647

crosspatch on February 7, 2014 at 11:04 AM

If we lose KY, it will be because of McConnell.

dforston on February 7, 2014 at 11:32 AM

Tsar of Earth on February 7, 2014 at 11:28 AM

All the government agencies are gearing up for something. Either they are planning to aid in the marxist takeover or they are preparing for a very pissed off public attacking them with pitchforks.

I must go out and shine up my pitchfork.

crankyoldlady on February 7, 2014 at 11:33 AM

Yeah, but this is all pre-national media involvement.

When the national media sees a Dem in trouble, they go to work on the opponent. Especially, if it is some arm waving socon.

Ask them stuff about women and abortion. Gays and popular culture. Get a narrative established about what a knuckle dragger they are.

Moesart on February 7, 2014 at 11:27 AM

Hey dumbie, they go to work on ANY GOPer or didn’t you clue in on what they did to Romney and what they are doing to Christie. It is YOU who help the Dems feed the narrative that GOPers are knuckle draggers when it isn’t even remotely true.

War on women– See Clinton and Kennedy
Homophobia– See Alec Baldwin
Racist– See every Dem that has called a Conservative black an uncle Tom.

So FOAD mmkay..

melle1228 on February 7, 2014 at 11:33 AM

Oregon? Why should (Merkley not Merkel — been reading too many articles about the West German Chancellor I guess) be a shoe-in?

KW64 on February 7, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Q: What do Dept of Edu and USPS have in common?

A: They are quasi-guv employees, conveniently dispersed across the land, that are not encumbered by the ‘rule’ prohibiting taking up arms against the citizens.

Tsar of Earth on February 7, 2014 at 11:28 AM

I’ve worked for USPS in the past. Believe me, if ever there was an enemy not to be feared, it’s your typical postal worker.

Lost in Jersey on February 7, 2014 at 11:40 AM

One indeterminable factor is how many democrats who are safe (eg, Waxman) will decide that it just won’t be fun anymore and decide to bail between now and November.

kurtzz3 on February 7, 2014 at 11:46 AM

Prediction … GOP takes Senate by 51-49. One GOPe will then become upset at something … change to Dem/Ind. Dems back in control w/Biden casting vote for Reid majority leader.

Dec_of_Ind on February 7, 2014 at 11:23 AM

I’d put my money on John McCain being the one.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:47 AM

Oregon? Why should (Merkley not Merkel — been reading too many articles about the West German Chancellor I guess) be a shoe-in?

KW64 on February 7, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Democrat. Oregon. The math isn’t hard here.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:49 AM

Democrat. Oregon. The math isn’t hard here.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:49 AM

Neither is voting.

For anyone.

Multiple times.

Lanceman on February 7, 2014 at 12:07 PM

But that depends on the GOP keeping the focus on ObamaCare and executive incompetence and arrogance, rather than on themselves in party-splitting agendas.

That’s the $64 question…particularly when the current GOP leadership seems to not want to lead, advocate their message and vision, or even ‘win’. To them, it seems as if they prefer the easier path of not wearing the bulls-eye on their back and just react to what happens.

Athos on February 7, 2014 at 12:20 PM

I’d put my money on John McCain being the one.

Happy Nomad on February 7, 2014 at 11:47 AM

He’s definitely in the running for today’s Arlen Specter, but I also wouldn’t rule out either Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski.

Athos on February 7, 2014 at 12:21 PM

On the other hand, Mitch McConnell’s looking a little weak in Kentucky, so Republicans may have to work harder to extend their competitive stance.

If by work harder you mean either primary him or let him get voted out… I agree.

We don’t need opportunistic backstabbers in our midst, let’s be able to see the knife coming.

Ukiah on February 7, 2014 at 12:27 PM

matthew8787 on February 7, 2014 at 11:31 AM

What 11th Amendment? Reagan never said that. He
ran against Ford in a primary. For every Akin, I can
Name 4 squishes that got squashed. Tell me, what
does the GOP stand for? They have no ideas, no
platform. They are the party of the status quo. It
is too late for games, we need serious candidates
to fix this country. Reagan won twice as a conservative
In a landslide. Romney and McCain lost against a
Candidate with such low hanging fruit. Everybody
hates Obamacare and Amnesty, yet the GOP
supports it. Sorry, but 2014 will be the year that
of the rise of the independents. Nobody is buying
what the GOP is selling.

Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 12:33 PM

Nobody can figure out how Princess Lisa won on a write in campaign. Consensus is that the donkeys rigged it so I’m betting she’ll be the next Specter. May her fortunes go the same way his did. In EVERY way.

Capt Blasto on February 7, 2014 at 12:40 PM

Red State: Yikes

The Republicans look like they are doing well and headed to pick up the Senate. Polling in Arkansas, Louisiana, and elsewhere shows strong Republican support.

Ironically, the GOP may wind up still losing the Senate because of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Another new, independent poll — this one from WHAS-TV and the Louisville Courier-Journal has 30 year incumbent Mitch McConnell four points behind Democrat challenger Allison Grimes. He polls only at 42% with only 12% undecided, has a job approval rating of only 32%, and has a personal favorability rating of only 27%.

If Mitch McConnell were not Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican Leader would be asking him to retire. He is the weakest Republican incumbent up for re-election this year.

There is an alternative. His name is Matt Bevin. He is challenging Mitch McConnell in the Republican Primary. Bevin polls one point worse than McConnell against Allison Grimes, but there is a big catch.

According to the polling data, 37% of Kentucky voters have no opinion on him, 37% are neutral on him, 17% are unfavorable toward him, and 10% like him. Bevin is an unknown.

This race is now about Matt Bevin raising his positive name identification. If he can do that, given McConnell’s high name identification and low approval rating, Matt Bevin can win. 41% of Democrats and 62% of Independent voters disapprove of Obama. They lean Republican. They just want an alternative to Mitch McConnell.

conservativeBC on February 7, 2014 at 1:04 PM

Mitch McConnell’s looking a little weak in Kentucky, so Republicans may have to work harder to extend their competitive stance.

Matt Bevin is leading Grimes by four points. Maybe McConnell should bow out.

The 2012 election was to be a referendum on zer0 and his precious healthcare bill. And we all know how that turned out.

MisterElephant on February 7, 2014 at 10:51 AM

The problem there was that we nominated the only Republican in the country that could not bring up Øbamacare.

Occams Stubble on February 7, 2014 at 1:15 PM

Bat signal to the media to begin kneecapping conservative candidates.

Art Vandelay on February 7, 2014 at 1:34 PM

No white board..? Didn’t happen.

d1carter on February 7, 2014 at 1:35 PM

Per Moesart above…

Art Vandelay on February 7, 2014 at 1:36 PM

Q: What do Dept of Edu and USPS have in common?

A: They are quasi-guv employees, conveniently dispersed across the land, that are not encumbered by the ‘rule’ prohibiting taking up arms against the citizens.

Tsar of Earth on February 7, 2014 at 11:28 AM

I’ve worked for USPS in the past. Believe me, if ever there was an enemy not to be feared, it’s your typical postal worker.

Lost in Jersey on February 7, 2014 at 11:40 AM

“Hello, Newman!”

Del Dolemonte on February 7, 2014 at 1:43 PM

If we want to have a prayer at stopping amnesty, we’d better hope that the Democrats hold on to the Senate.

besser tot als rot on February 7, 2014 at 1:52 PM

What good is taking the senate if the same leadership like McConnell, Cornyn, etc. is in place?

Just because the GOP takes the senate, doesn’t mean that conservative principles will begin to be ushered in.

The new excuse will be “We can’t fight Obama and the dems now, or we will risk losing the White House in 2016″ instead of “risk losing the 2014 senate”

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 10:48 AM

McConnell and Boehner should promise to step down if the GOP wins the Senate. That might motivate some conservatives to actually vote for the GOP.

besser tot als rot on February 7, 2014 at 1:59 PM

Probably true.

Of course then we get a Politburo Supreme Court.

eh, six of one……

Art Vandelay on February 7, 2014 at 1:59 PM

tcufrog on February 7, 2014 at 11:07 AM
welcome aboard. I totally agree with you about Cornyn too. I’m leaning Stovall but Stockman doesn’t bother me either.

And I also don’t want McConnell in charge either. He is CofC and they seem to have turned on us.

DanMan on February 7, 2014 at 11:22 AM

DanMan, walk away from Stockman. He has financial issues and according to a Texas state rep I know, Stockman’s a buffoon. I’m with you and tcufrog, though, I will NOT vote for Cornyn. Of all the Republican primary candidates, I will vote for Stovall. If Cornyn wins the primary, I vote for no one in the general election. That we couldn’t get another strong, conservative candidate like Cruz to go up against Cornyn just makes me sick….almost as much as Cornyn and his stupid, lying ads do.

texasmagnolia on February 7, 2014 at 2:03 PM

I think that unless the Senate goes about 54-46, it is a given that several will cross over to the darkside; giving reid control again.

Who cares what the voters want.

kpguru on February 7, 2014 at 2:07 PM

I’ve worked for USPS in the past. Believe me, if ever there was an enemy not to be feared, it’s your typical postal worker.

Lost in Jersey on February 7, 2014 at 11:40 AM

We used to think that about the park service.

crankyoldlady on February 7, 2014 at 2:34 PM

If we want to have a prayer at stopping amnesty, we’d better hope that the Democrats hold on to the Senate.
besser tot als rot on February 7, 2014 at 1:52 PM

Sad, but so true

Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 2:35 PM

No white board..? Didn’t happen.
d1carter on February 7, 2014 at 1:35 PM

Sometimes I wonder if he pulls out the whiteboard
so that he can sniff the markers

Brock Robamney on February 7, 2014 at 2:41 PM

Maybe I’m being too pessimistic but I’ve been saying for a long time that there won’t be an election in 2016 and we should stop the useless speculation about who is going to run. Now I’m not so sure there will be one this year. At least it won’t be fair. The marxists have their apparatus set up everywhere and it doesn’t take much to engineer an election to suit themselves.

If you want to win this war it won’t be with elections or law. The Dems aren’t following any laws. What makes you think they will follow election laws?

I hope I’m wrong.

crankyoldlady on February 7, 2014 at 2:51 PM

we’ll pick up some seats but will not take conrtol of senate.

gerrym51 on February 7, 2014 at 3:01 PM

Isn’t this the same Rove group that spent 5 gazillion dollars on dopey campaigns last time only to get their butts kicked.

ouldbollix on February 7, 2014 at 3:19 PM

Bmore on February 7, 2014 at 10:57 AM

Hee, I’ve lurked here for going on 3 or so years….guess the orientation packet missed me in the mail. color me properly chastised… :p

As to the galoshes, I fully intend to go down firing (CZ 75 SP-01, Baby Desert Eagle and Mossberg 500 Cruiser) by golly, sumbody’s coming with me.

That is all….

wolfplus3 on February 7, 2014 at 4:14 PM

American Crossroads? Karl Rove’s PAC? The one that is failing in an epic manner on fundraising?
So, how many of these candidates that they have identified as “winning’ in their poll are associated with the Crossroad PAC? Just wondering if they’re trying to drum up a fund-raising “buzz”.

lineholder on February 7, 2014 at 5:22 PM

A lot of time between now and November for them to screw it up. The problem we are told my RINOs is social conservatives. That has never been the problem. The problem is when voters have a choice between liberal and a liberal pretending to be a Republican, they will go with the liberal eventually.

Faramir on February 7, 2014 at 6:21 PM

Bmore

Schadenfreude on February 7, 2014 at 6:24 PM

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