ADP employment report shows 175,000 jobs added in January

posted at 8:41 am on February 5, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

After a big miss in December, the ADP employment report once again predicts positive job growth in the private sector, but at the lowest rate in six months.  The payroll management firm’s analysis shows 175,000 jobs added in January, down 50,000 from the previous month and the lowest since August:

Private sector employment increased by 175,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Last month, the 225K level predicted turned out to be 74K overall from BLS. This metric often (but not always) overshoots the actual data from BLS, but not usually by that far. The overall level in this report, if it pans out this time, would be enough to keep pace with population growth but not much more than that. It also shows a slowdown in job expansion in its own series after a peak in November:

adp-jan-14

The report has some bad news in manufacturing:

Goods-producing employment rose by 16,000 jobs in January, down from a downwardly-revised figure of 50,000 in December. Nearly all of the growth came from the construction industry which added 25,000 jobs over the month; this followed increases of 30,000 and 32,000 in the prior two months. Manufacturing lost jobs in January; the decline of 12,000 followed a revised gain of 16,000 in the prior month and was the first decline in industry payrolls since July 2013.

The report missed expectations, but not by a large amount:

Private companies created 175,000 new positions in January, a bit lower than in expected but in keeping with the pace of job creation over the past two years, according to the latest report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

Economists expected the ADP to report that private companies created 180,000 jobs in January, down from the downwardly revised 217,000 positions in December.

Reuters recalls ADP’s big miss last month:

December’s initial reading from ADP failed to foreshadow accurately the Labor Department’s report, which showed that just 74,000 jobs were created in December. That was the lowest job creation total in nearly three years, but was largely blamed on the month’s bout of freezing weather across the country.

This time around, analysts are looking for the government data to show that 185,000 jobs were created in January, all of them in the private sector; the private payrolls forecast is also 185,000, according to a Reuters survey.

Even a BLS report of 185,000 is just barely above stagnation level, though. The only real cheer one could take from that is that it matches expectations, which means nothing significant to the economy. If that’s the measure of success, it’s a clear sign that our sights are set too low.


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To be revised downward. Unexpectedly.

rbj on February 5, 2014 at 8:47 AM

Only Wednesday and we already get the big screw?

My prediction is more indications of stagnant employment numbers at best. Jay Carney will once again state that we are seeing constant improvement, just not as fast as anyone in the administration would like.

And of course the obligatory claim that employment numbers would be much higher if the Congressional GOP would only obey the brilliant plans being put forth by Obama, Reid, and Pelosi. Because, after all, more borrowing to pay welfare benefits to parasites is really a stimulus program or something.

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 8:49 AM

And 120k of the jobs are part time…

RoadRunner on February 5, 2014 at 8:49 AM

That’s ok. The lack of jobs allows Americans to choose not to work. Or something.

Doughboy on February 5, 2014 at 8:50 AM

This would be a good time to legalize 20 million lawbreaking border-jumpers who will bring in an extra 20 million family members.

Bishop on February 5, 2014 at 8:52 AM

It’s only going to get worse as the year progresses. Businesses are just starting to plan for next years expenses and some of them are already dropping people or limiting people to part time to avoid the Obamacare mandates.

Johnnyreb on February 5, 2014 at 8:54 AM

Merciful Teapot!!

That’s absolutely Azzkickin baby!!!!

Hell, we got’s so many jobs here that we NEED to
pass Amnesty!!

Come on now, everybody take Boehner’s lead here..

Sombreros for everyone!!

ToddPA on February 5, 2014 at 8:56 AM

If that’s the measure of success, it’s a clear sign that our sights are set too low.

Our sights have been set low since 08 Ed. Just remember these three words..

“saved or created”

Gatsu on February 5, 2014 at 9:03 AM

This would be a good time to legalize 20 million lawbreaking border-jumpers who will bring in an extra 20 million family members.

Bishop on February 5, 2014 at 8:52 AM

Hey, they’re just doing the jobs Americans won’t do! I’m honestly surprised I haven’t heard that come up (yet) as rat bastard traitor Paul Ryan skulks the halls of the Hart Office building cooking up a deal with Chuck Schumer.

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:03 AM

That’s ok. The lack of jobs allows Americans to choose not to work. Or something.

Doughboy on February 5, 2014 at 8:50 AM

Yes, don’t think of it as too few jobs being created, think of it as more Americans being liberated from the shackles of regular employment. IOW, it’s freedom! — and how can that be a bad thing?
— Jay Carney

AZCoyote on February 5, 2014 at 9:09 AM

This would be a good time to legalize 20 million lawbreaking border-jumpers who will bring in an extra 20 million family members.

Bishop on February 5, 2014 at 8:52 AM

After the 1986 amnesty, each newly-amnestied border-jumper brought in an average of three more family members.

So if we legalize 20 million, we’ll likely be getting an additional 60 million or so family members through chain migration.

AZCoyote on February 5, 2014 at 9:12 AM

This is great news! You wouldn’t want any more jobs than that to be added, because that would effectively take away more people’s choice to not work, and have added leisure in their lives. They would not be “empowered” to choose unemployment. I can see that HotAir is stuck in some very old-fashioned economic thinking here.

SacredFire on February 5, 2014 at 9:14 AM

How many are a result of the weather? Snow and cold add jobs. Plowing..repairing machinery..shoveling..replacing frozen pipes.. and appliances..cars that won’t start creating jobs for towing services and garages for repair..auto part suppliers, etc?

Mimzey on February 5, 2014 at 9:18 AM

Jobs added! That means the progressive movement is failing. We measure success by people leaving the work force!

/libfreeordie

gwelf on February 5, 2014 at 9:23 AM

This is great news! You wouldn’t want any more jobs than that to be added, because that would effectively take away more people’s choice to not work, and have added leisure in their lives. They would not be “empowered” to choose unemployment. I can see that HotAir is stuck in some very old-fashioned economic thinking here.

SacredFire on February 5, 2014 at 9:14 AM

War on the job-free lifestyle! Funemployment has been “incentivized” into funtirement!

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:24 AM

gwelf on February 5, 2014 at 9:23 AM

When you can successfully parrot libbie, you might want to take a break from the computer for awhile. Lest you start drinking the Kool Aid yourself. ;0

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:26 AM

hell pelosi even stated people having time to create art or music was a benefit of obamacare during the fight over passing it.
people better start singing and painting….sing for change and paint fences for food.

dmacleo on February 5, 2014 at 9:28 AM

hell pelosi even stated people having time to create art or music was a benefit of obamacare during the fight over passing it.
people better start singing and painting….sing for change and paint fences for food.

dmacleo on February 5, 2014 at 9:28 AM

And don’t forget Cowboy Poets…they’re apparently in high
demand in Nevada..

ToddPA on February 5, 2014 at 9:33 AM

I blame the snow. And Bush. But not Obama. Nuh uh.. no WAY can you pin this on him.

/Bush made Katrina and he also made 2 Polar Vortex’s. Uh huh. Its twoo, its twoo!

Key West Reader on February 5, 2014 at 9:36 AM

At this rate, we will reach full employment with one third of the work force unemployed.

It’s magic.

Curtiss on February 5, 2014 at 9:36 AM

Don’t worry – the annual population adjustments will show a wildly positive report even though almost all the positive will be because of the adjustment and not actual job/employment growth.

Steve Eggleston on February 5, 2014 at 9:37 AM

When you can successfully parrot libbie, you might want to take a break from the computer for awhile. Lest you start drinking the Kool Aid yourself. ;0

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:26 AM

True. I may need an intervention.

Yesterday I perfectly predicted and parodied his response in a thread before he made it.

gwelf on February 5, 2014 at 9:38 AM

I blame the snow. And Bush. But not Obama. Nuh uh.. no WAY can you pin this on him.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2014 at 9:36 AM

You forgot ATMs. Those things are pure evil.

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:38 AM

This number is lower than expected because of all the happy people leaving the workforce now that they have Obamacare. It’s a good thing!

If the number was higher, that would mean people would still be working instead of living on the government dime!

oh, and two more things….

Economic BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

and

and then hotair will run out of material to bash the President on…that’s what you’re really afraid of, right?

nonpartisan on November 19, 2013 at 4:47 PM

Chris of Rights on February 5, 2014 at 9:47 AM

I blame the snow. And Bush. But not Obama. Nuh uh.. no WAY can you pin this on him.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2014 at 9:36 AM

You forgot ATMs. Those things are pure evil.

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:38 AM

Also, Racism! And War on Wimmenzes! And GOP obstructionism. And Fox News.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2014 at 9:48 AM

And 120k of the jobs are part time…

RoadRunner on February 5, 2014 at 8:49 AM

and temporary. They are not real “bread-winner” jobs defined as being a position one can support oneself with.

dogsoldier on February 5, 2014 at 10:11 AM

We will never know the actual number of actual jobs created because our government lies to us every time is releases ANY information. It is all political, corrupt propaganda crafted to make Emperor Zero look good.

It is disgusting what he has done to our country.

dogsoldier on February 5, 2014 at 10:13 AM

I blame the snow. And Bush. But not Obama. Nuh uh.. no WAY can you pin this on him.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2014 at 9:36 AM

You forgot ATMs. Those things are pure evil.

Happy Nomad on February 5, 2014 at 9:38 AM

…it’s the weather!…too many storms…you can’t get to the ATM’s…and you don’t have any money in them anyway!

KOOLAID2 on February 5, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Wait till all the blowback from Obamacare plays out, 175K will look like an expansion.

Viator on February 5, 2014 at 10:30 AM

Just remember, the WH does read Hot Gas. The IRS tax audits on commenters will begin in 3… 2…

RoadRunner on February 5, 2014 at 11:43 AM

What’s ADP’s track record?

COgirl on February 5, 2014 at 12:12 PM

175,000 people who chose not to work on their dream of sitting around collecting government cheese.

LoganSix on February 5, 2014 at 3:03 PM