Another poll shows the new GOP frontrunner is … Mike Huckabee

posted at 7:21 pm on February 3, 2014 by Allahpundit

One poll showing him ahead is a fluke. Two polls showing him ahead? We call that “momentum.”

I’m not in the habit of making pledges, but I promise you this: I will never, ever tire of trolling you guys with numbers showing Huck as some sort of contender for the nomination. Ever.

Fourteen percent of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they would likely support Huckabee for their party’s nomination if he runs.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is next at 13% followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Christie tied at 10%…

That’s a change from November, when Christie was 11 points ahead of the rest of the field. Huckabee was not tested in the November survey…

“Because Huckabee was not included in the November poll, any drop in Christie’s support among Republicans may be partly due to Huckabee as well as recent news stories. So it’s impossible to calculate exactly how much support Christie lost as a result of the bridge controversy. But it’s a pretty safe bet that the drop in Christie’s support against Clinton is due to the recent news stories about the bridge,” added Holland.

Huck siphoning support from Christie? Hmmm. In PPP’s poll last week, it was Ted Cruz whom he was stealing votes from. That made sense, since they’re both targeting social conservatives; in fact, it was among older voters, who trend more socially conservative, that Huckabee excelled in PPP’s data. CNN didn’t post the crosstabs for today’s survey but I think the pollster’s right that Christie’s dive has less to do with Huck than with Bridgegate exploding his advantage over the rest of the field. If you’re a Huck-hater and you’re looking for a silver lining in data like this possibly luring him into the field, here’s the best I can do: If he won Iowa and Rand Paul won New Hampshire, that’s as close as we’ll ever get to a pure libertarian-versus-social-conservatives battle of ideas in the primaries. I think Rand would win, mainly because he’s a lot more acceptable to Huckabee’s base than Huckabee is to his, but either way it sure would be fun to blog.

By the way, both of them get utterly crushed by Hillary in CNN’s hypothetical 2016 match-ups, 57-39 in Paul’s case and 56-39 in Huck’s. The big news from the poll, though, is that Christie’s now in the same boat. He trails 55-39 after having led her 48-46 as recently as December. In theory, that’s not a fatal wound; all he has to do is get past Bridgegate and start rebuilding his numbers to become Mr. Electable again. But how does he get past Bridgegate when Jersey Democrats are resolved to drag it out as long as possible to wound him? And how does he rebuild his numbers with independents and Democrats as we get closer to 2016 without another storm intervening? Lots of righties, me among them, have pointed out that second-term presidents rarely see their approval rating rebound once it’s nosedived like Obama’s has. I suspect the same is true of governors, especially ones who are tied down by scandal. Even if Christie comes back a little, how much would his numbers need to improve to convince center-righties that he’s worth gambling on for electability reasons more than center-right politicians whom they like better, like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio?


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

LOLOLOLOL

Rational Thought on February 3, 2014 at 7:23 PM

He won’t even run.

Knott Buyinit on February 3, 2014 at 7:23 PM

CNN/ORC Poll: Christie’s loss appears to be Clinton’s gain

Of course the ORC’s are going to support one of their own.

Flange on February 3, 2014 at 7:24 PM

April Fools Day early this year?

hillsoftx on February 3, 2014 at 7:24 PM

Barf…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:25 PM

I’m not in the habit of making pledges, but I promise you this: I will never, ever tire of trolling you guys with numbers showing Huck as some sort of contender for the nomination. Ever.

Which is to say that the Huckster is pure gold in ramping up traffic to HA. Especially important with the blatant advocacy for amnesty, same sex marriage, and the establishment GOP. HA is becoming Karl Rove’s echo chamber and the Huckster breaks up the pattern for a bit.

Happy Nomad on February 3, 2014 at 7:29 PM

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:25 PM

No barfing on your birthday. Hope you are having a great day OC.

CoffeeLover on February 3, 2014 at 7:29 PM

Really? RINOs stupid to the core…

Doomsday on February 3, 2014 at 7:30 PM

Hey Scotty When will that warp drive be working…

Here’s the deal, the MEDIA (the PR arm of the Democrat Party) will always pick the worst possible bozo to be the Republican Candidate.

The Republican “Leadership” is so devoid of intelligence that they believe what they see in the media.

CrazyGene on February 3, 2014 at 7:30 PM

Isn’t that an old skinny pic of Huckabee? I think he’s plumped up again.

Rational Thought on February 3, 2014 at 7:31 PM

April Fools Day early this year?

hillsoftx on February 3, 2014 at 7:24 PM

More like a belated Groundhog day. Huck pops up pretends to be a conservative, and we get six more years of faux evangelical Christian populism.

Happy Nomad on February 3, 2014 at 7:32 PM

Rubio, Huckabee, Romney Part Deux… oh, sure, why not?

de rigueur on February 3, 2014 at 7:32 PM

One poll showing him ahead is a fluke. Two polls showing him ahead? We call that “momentum.” wishcasting.

FIFY

RickB on February 3, 2014 at 7:32 PM

Huckmentummmmmmm!/

BDavis on February 3, 2014 at 7:33 PM

I took a poll and it shows that this poll is 100% Bull Sit !

stenwin77 on February 3, 2014 at 7:35 PM

The Husband LIKES Chuckabee. Siiiigh.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 3, 2014 at 7:35 PM

I’m not in the habit of making pledges, but I promise you this: I will never, ever tire of trolling you guys with numbers showing Huck as some sort of contender for the nomination. Ever.

You can’t troll me, AP. I’m delighted every time I see these sorts of numbers. Go Huckabee!

Stoic Patriot on February 3, 2014 at 7:35 PM

Wait…when did the voting start?

kcewa on February 3, 2014 at 7:36 PM

April Fools Day early this year?

hillsoftx on February 3, 2014 at 7:24 PM

More like a belated Groundhog day. Huck pops up pretends to be a conservative, and we get six more years of faux evangelical Christian populism.

Happy Nomad on February 3, 2014 at 7:32 PM

Yup, beat me to it. More like the nightmare of Groundhog Day.

Fallon on February 3, 2014 at 7:37 PM

Fallon on February 3, 2014 at 7:37 PM

Spawn’s birthday is April 1-and I don’t think that he’s a Huck fan.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 3, 2014 at 7:38 PM

Still on,….LIVE NOW:

ON NOW LIVE: Chris Christie

George Washington Bridge ramp closings scandal
7m
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: ‘Unequivocally,’ he had no knowledge of lane-closure plans – @CBSNews live video
read more on cbsnews.com
===========================

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/live-video/

canopfor on February 3, 2014 at 7:33 PM

canopfor on February 3, 2014 at 7:42 PM

i like how Allah uses the thin pic of huck to lure to suckas in.

renalin on February 3, 2014 at 7:42 PM

Huck is basically a pro-life Democrat. Too bad. He’s actually quite politically talented.

GOPRanknFile on February 3, 2014 at 7:43 PM

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Huckabee!!!

Ugh!
Double Ugh!

Triple Ugh!

canopfor on February 3, 2014 at 7:43 PM

In other words, a man with high name recognition is at 14 percent two years before the first votes in a primary.

Mister Mets on February 3, 2014 at 7:44 PM

No barfing on your birthday. Hope you are having a great day OC.

CoffeeLover on February 3, 2014 at 7:29 PM

Thank you. Just got home from dinner

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:44 PM

If Huckabee wins the nomination, his campaign will end very close to how the Denver Broncos ended last night.

Hillary States: 43

Huckabee States: 7

portlandon on February 3, 2014 at 7:45 PM

No barfing on your birthday. Hope you are having a great day OC.

CoffeeLover on February 3, 2014 at 7:29 PM

I had an excuse. Obama’s first election was on my birthday.

Bitter Clinger on February 3, 2014 at 7:46 PM

I had an excuse. Obama’s first election was on my birthday.

Bitter Clinger on February 3, 2014 at 7:46 PM

And I thought my brothers 9/11 birthday was a downer…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:48 PM

Thank you. Just got home from dinner…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:44 PM

She looks like a fun dinner companion. Happy Birthday!

kcewa on February 3, 2014 at 7:48 PM

Another ‘poll’, huh ?
.
I’m a poll man …..

listens2glenn on February 3, 2014 at 7:53 PM

She looks like a fun dinner companion. Happy Birthday!

kcewa on February 3, 2014 at 7:48 PM

Heh! Thanks…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:58 PM

And I thought my brothers 9/11 birthday was a downer…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:48 PM

I think your brother beats me. I cannot imagine what that was like to have that happen on your birthday.

Closest I can come is that the hostage crisis in Iran began on my birthday: November 4, 1979.

Bitter Clinger on February 3, 2014 at 7:59 PM

BTW there’s an election coming up in a few weeks, as opposed to a poll about one that won’t happen for a couple of years.

Candidates to debate in Fla. special election

Republican David Jolly, Democrat Alex Sink and Libertarian Lucas Overby will participate in an hour-long debate at St. Petersburg College Monday.

As the first major match-up in advance of this year’s midterm elections, the contest is shaping up to be the proving ground for political arguments Republicans and Democrats hope will resonate with moderate voters in November.

Both major political parties are spending millions of dollars to flood the airwaves with attack ads in the swing-voting district. The special election is March 11.

kcewa on February 3, 2014 at 7:59 PM

Who ever it is, it will be better than Hillary Clinton. We have to keep our eye on the ball. Huckaby or any of the GOP would be vastly better than another Clinton Alinsky accolate in the White House.

Zelsdorf Ragshaft on February 3, 2014 at 8:03 PM

Nope.

Jack_Burton on February 3, 2014 at 8:04 PM

Huckster or . . . Second look at bashing my own head in with a hammer.

rbj on February 3, 2014 at 8:06 PM

One poll showing him ahead is a fluke. Two polls showing him ahead? We call that “momentum.”

No we call that BS…..smuckabee does not have a snowballs chance in hell…..

He thought he was going to beat Rush with his brand of talk….

It’s all a front presented by the establishment.

After 2014 the establishment will be destroyed.

redguy on February 3, 2014 at 8:07 PM

And the parade of retreads continues. Christie is fizzling, so now we are being offered Romney 2.0, Rubio 2.0, and now Huckabee 2.0. Hey, maybe Huntsman 2.0 will be pushed on us next.

The GOPe must be really frantic to coronate somebody before the primaries start.

Aitch748 on February 3, 2014 at 8:12 PM

I will never, ever tire of trolling you guys with numbers showing Huck as some sort of contender for the nomination. Ever.

posted at 7:21 pm on February 3, 2014 by Allahpundit

If you could find a way to invest in apoplexy you would be a rich man.

jaime on February 3, 2014 at 8:15 PM

Six going on eight years of Democrat policies have destroyed the economy, made permanent sky-high unemployment with lives of citizens destroyed along with it, wrecked healthcare (perhaps permanently), and done immeasurable damage to our standing with our world allies and to the stability of the Middle East.

….Let’s sign up for another four years of the same with Hillary.

Have fun America.

Hawkins1701 on February 3, 2014 at 8:19 PM

He won’t even run.
Knott Buyinit on February 3, 2014 at 7:23 PM

I think he will.

BPinNC on February 3, 2014 at 8:22 PM

Just say NO!

Christian Conservative on February 3, 2014 at 8:23 PM

2016 polls, before the 2014 midterms, with a list of CNN-approved choices. Sort of feels like Iranian-style “democracy,” with the media-mullahs determining our choices.

Oh, well, if it’s not them, it’s going to be the crony-capitalist mullahs making the decision.

And they loves them some Hillary.

notropis on February 3, 2014 at 8:24 PM

Thank you. Just got home from dinner…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 7:44 PM

Birthday??..Hey!..Happy B-Day!..live long and prosper. Hope things are fine for you.

Mimzey on February 3, 2014 at 8:31 PM

Of course, because isn’t the GOP nominating criteria, “It’s his turn”?

DrMagnolias on February 3, 2014 at 8:31 PM

Birthday??..Hey!..Happy B-Day!..live long and prosper. Hope things are fine for you.

Mimzey on February 3, 2014 at 8:31 PM

Thanks. Things are good…

OmahaConservative on February 3, 2014 at 8:39 PM

Moochelle 16′…..chew on it!

dmann on February 3, 2014 at 8:39 PM

dmann on February 3, 2014 at 8:39 PM

Sixteen feet? What?

notropis on February 3, 2014 at 8:40 PM

Hotair cures insomnia.

VorDaj on February 3, 2014 at 8:45 PM

Oh jeez louise.

CWchangedhisNicagain on February 3, 2014 at 9:00 PM

Just not seeing him as “presidential” but then, I didn’t think of the current president as presidential, either, and look how that turned out.
What would he run on?

scalleywag on February 3, 2014 at 9:19 PM

Pffftttttt!!!

GarandFan on February 3, 2014 at 9:31 PM

Romney / Huckabee / Romney / Huckabee, back and forth the polls tell us those are our two options.

Certified freaking losers, both of them.

Maybe the STUPID PARTY just represents it’s voting base? If the republican party can’t find someone that’s actually a LIMITED GOVERNMENT Conservative then we’re all just in a perpetual nightmare we can’t wake up from and we’re doomed to the Bush family running the show.

AS GOVERNMENT EXPANDS, LIBERTY CONTRACTS“—-I’m yelling for the idiots that keep picking Huckleberry and Romney because they say they are just like Reagan.

#ugh

PappyD61 on February 3, 2014 at 9:34 PM

I won’t vote for Huck under any circumstances, just so you know.

Dollayo on February 4, 2014 at 12:09 AM

Huck? Christie? Jeb Bush?

Somehow, I seriously doubt we end up with a 2016 nominee I will actually vote for.

Sorry, but Hillary being the Dem nominee isn’t enough to get me into the voting booth with a clothes pin on my nose (again).

DRayRaven on February 4, 2014 at 6:26 AM

Has the GOP become the part of losers? That seems to be all that they run. Huckabee is no exception.

sadatoni on February 4, 2014 at 7:27 AM

Closest I can come is that the hostage crisis in Iran began on my birthday: November 4, 1979.

Bitter Clinger on February 3, 2014 at 7:59 PM

The Berlin Wall came down on my birthday: November 9, 1989.

Chris of Rights on February 4, 2014 at 9:45 AM