Paul Ryan: Under our plan, illegals will have probationary legal status while the border is being secured

posted at 3:21 pm on January 29, 2014 by Allahpundit

We’re still waiting for Boehner and the House leadership to release their new “principles” on immigration, but I think this tells us most of what we need to know.

Pay close attention at around 1:40 of the clip. Lefty Greg Sargent thinks it’s significant. I agree.

Ryan confirms GOP “principles” will include legal status for the 11 million, but he also says this will be a ”probationary status” to make sure the 11 million will not be “preferenced over people who did follow the laws.” It’s important to have confirmation that there will be a way out of the shadows. But the probationary period idea is problematic. Details will matter, but it would probably allow for people to get the right to work up front, but they could be kicked off of probationary status if certain security benchmarks aren’t met.

Advocates see this as bad policy: Why would undocumenteds step forward, if they know they can lose work status and get deported later because of nothing that they did, but only because Washington failed to decide certain metrics had been fulfilled?

However, Ryan also says the undocumented will be allowed to work as part of “probationary” status before security benchmarks are met. “You can be on probation,” Ryan says, “while the border is being secured.”

Solution: No one comes out of the shadows until the border’s secured. The status quo on legalization holds in the meantime. There’s no rational reason why a country needs to make concessions to illegals before, or concurrent with, strengthening its borders, just as there’s no rational reason to think the GOP would use the security trigger to delay legalization ad infinitum. Everyone understands the demographic realities of the last election. Everyone knows how eager the Republican establishment is to attract Latino voters. And everyone knows how gleefully Democrats will demagogue them for dragging their feet on legalization while the border saga is playing out. Left to their own devices, Republicans would legalize illegals sooner rather than later. There’s no similar reason to believe that Democrats, left to their own devices, would eventually get around to tackling the border once legalization happened.

But I digress. “Probationary” legalization while security improvements are being made is the same nonsense in the Gang of Eight proposal, and it’s unacceptable for the same reason. Namely, in reality, there’ll be nothing probationary about it. Once “probation” is granted and illegals gain a temporary right to stay in the U.S., Congress will never muster the will to rescind that right even if the new border security efforts fall apart (or, more likely, if Obama simply refuses to carry them out). It’ll be like any other entitlement — once it’s in effect, congressional cowardice at upsetting people’s expectations will ensure that it’s with us forever. If you think the left’s immigration demagoguery is bad now, imagine what it’d be like in the summer of 2016, with border enforcement going nowhere and some Republicans in Congress whispering about canceling the conditional “probation” that was granted to illegals as a result. It’ll never happen. “Probationary” legalization is permanent legalization, period, which is why it can’t be granted until after the border’s been measurably improved. And the left will never agree to that because they don’t want the border improved; how will there be another new influx of Democratic voters over the next 20 years if the border becomes too solid to breach? They want the people here now legalized without any hard conditions and they also want to make sure that there’s not so much pressure on DHS to upgrade security that the 2045 amnesty will have to be canceled. Sounds like Boehner and Paul Ryan are going to make their dream come true.

Sargent’s also right about the path to citizenship here. Ryan mentions that there won’t be a “special” path, but near the end he imagines legalized illegals being able to apply for green cards eventually through currently existing channels, the penultimate step to citizenship. You already knew the leadership was leaning this way, but now here’s the proof. Everyone excited?


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Look who doesn’t want to win back the Senate in 2014. Repubs think you’re just a bunch of tools who will go to the polls for them no matter what they do.

WordsMatter on January 29, 2014 at 4:08 PM

Yep. Well, they can’t count on me, amnesty is a deal-breaker for me, in any form.

hollygolightly on January 29, 2014 at 4:13 PM

Ryan gets stupider looking every day.

rrpjr on January 29, 2014 at 4:14 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.
Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

What a vile comment. You should be ashamed,

All the Latinos I know are completely against illegal immigration and amnesty.

How dare you repeat the leftist smear that enforcing immigration law has anything to do with ethnicity.

We have immigration standards for a reasons, and we should be enforcing our laws.

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:14 PM

Well, that is job #1 for the federal government.

besser tot als rot on January 29, 2014 at 4:12 PM

I understand the idea – but the objective is impossible. The U.S. border is too long – impossible to fully monitor – and exists to our North and our South and our East and West.

I am with the idea in principal – but it can’t be done.

Border security has always been a false idea.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:15 PM

the_nile on January 29, 2014 at 4:08 PM

That’s the one thing that makes me thing it won’t go through. Seems like you can pay people in the shadows a lot less than people on the books.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

No the dirty secret is – you can pay them more….
No FICA or medicare taxes. Plus no benefits.
With ObamaCare it will be cheaper to pay under the table.
And actually most illegals prefer that.
The Republicans don’t understand reality.
If you granted people legal status then they would have to get in the system.
A system now that would limit their work hours to 29.5 hours per week…..
Not many minimum wage people will be getting close to getting health insurance.
Most hispanics in know in construction prefer to 80 hours per week for cash or barter.
Many work for tools or gas or beer. You will build a super class of underground worker
if you try to pass legislation to “bring people out of the shadows”.
All this talk is really for liberal consumption to shore up Obama’s base.

redguy on January 29, 2014 at 4:16 PM

The U.S. Border will NEVER be secure, it is a virtual impossibility. Anyone who thinks it can be secured, I invite you to review a map of the border. Both Canadian and Mexican borders please.

Secure border is a non-starter.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:07 PM

Really ?
Giving up even before making an effort ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:16 PM

Giving up even before making an effort ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:16 PM

Yes – again – the reality of our border is almost inconceivable.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:17 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans conservatives eventually never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform enforcement and say disparaging words about Latinos the majority of the country who favors immigration enforcement in the process.
Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

FIFY.

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:17 PM

The U.S. Border will NEVER be secure, it is a virtual impossibility. Anyone who thinks it can be secured, I invite you to review a map of the border. Both Canadian and Mexican borders please.

Secure border is a non-starter.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:07 PM

Really ?
Giving up even before making an effort ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:16 PM

Give me a billion dollars and I will secure both sides of the fence….
North and south.
Our neighbors may not like it – screw them.

redguy on January 29, 2014 at 4:17 PM

Clearly today we must all be gravely aware that political expediency, latino ethnicity and the Chamber of Commerce’s need for serf labor take precedence over rule of law…

RasThavas on January 29, 2014 at 4:02 PM

And we got two future factors that will lead to a major surplus of labor in the future.

So, if illegals populate this country to the brim, we got major problems with supplying jobs to the general population and providing welfare to the former illegals and their kin.

On labor, first we have a revolution in robotic automation that is proceeding with unexpected speed. The new robotics well lead to an incredible surge in overall wealth, but re-education or something is needed to help gear much of population toward other types work. And certainly we don’t need masses of additional low skill labor from down south to make matters worse. In addition, the military is downsizing, which will add to the labor surplus.

The chamber of commerce needs to take a flying hike.

anotherJoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:18 PM

Everyone knows how eager the Republican establishment is to attract Latino voters.

Bah. This is NOT about attracting Latino voters, and they know that. This issue has NEVER won Latino voters for the GOP. It’s a sell-out to big money donor interests like the Chamber of Commerce, and nothing more.

TarheelBen on January 29, 2014 at 4:18 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.
Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

Ask President McCain and President Romney how hispandering worked out for them. Oh wait, it didn’t.

HornetSting on January 29, 2014 at 4:19 PM

HornetSting on January 29, 2014 at 4:03 PM

You got that right. Gotta hound them constantly. Call them, Twitter them, E-mail them, any way you can.

If you have Republican Representive , be on them like white on rice.

Barred on January 29, 2014 at 4:19 PM

The Chamber of Commerce/corporate crowd has probably convinced them of this. They think the base will always come back to the GOP because, in their minds, where else can the base go? That thinking is going to bite them in the a$$.

Bitter Clinger on January 29, 2014 at 4:01 PM

.
This is being pursued because the GOPe Donor Class laid down the law on October 11, 2013 – the day Boehner and the Republican House leadership REVERSED course after hearing what their Masters had to say to the NYT/CNBC:

I posted this link http://tinyurl.com/lzzpw8u repeatedly yesterday so Boehner & Co. sudden capitulation would be seen in the appropriate light – the moneymen publicly taking the GOPe leadership to task in the NYT/CNBC.

While both parties have extreme elements, he suggested, only in the G.O.P. did the extreme element exercise real power. “The extreme right has 90 seats in the House,” Mr. Echevarria said. “Occupy Wall Street has no seats.”

Except Joe Echevarria, the CEO of Deloitte, the accounting and consulting firm, has as his clients the health insurance and pharmaceutical companies who will be raking in BILLIONS from the Obamacare deals they got in return for their support of the law.

OH, and the Too Big Too Jail banks are also Deloitte’s clients who get $ 85 billion per year in government subsidies IN ADDITION to the $ 85 billion/month of interest free money the get from QE.
Just a little $ 1 trillion conflict of interest & motives on Mr Echevarria’s part.

.
The GOPe politicians from that day forward have capitulated to the Democrats on EVERYTHING purely to insure the GOPe Donor Class does not cut them off from campaign contributions and executive positions when they leave congress.

The GOPe Donor Class declared war on the Tea Party on the front page of the New York Times … but you haven’t read a single word about THAT story on Hot Air.

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:19 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.
Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

Yeah we’ve all seen the Democrat playbook to keep voters low informed. Democrats and the media already say those things over and over again. This has nothing to do with what Republicans do or say.

rhombus on January 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM

I’m telling my Congresswoman that if anything like this passes the House, she will never get my vote again. It’s not enough for her to vote no, she needs to encourage others to vote no. She needs to make sure this doesn’t pass.

The GOP lost me in 2013. My delegation is on the hook now.

Chris of Rights on January 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM

so why is the GOP doing this??

Sachiko on January 29, 2014 at 3:58 PM

Follow the money.

VorDaj on January 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM

Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

You’re assuming that all Hispanics support amnesty.
How very patronizing of you.

annoyinglittletwerp on January 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM

Hey, Mr. Ryan, why make laws in the first place if you don’t intend to enforce them?

Go ahead and bend the rules for one group of people, but don’t act surprised when the rest of us quit obeying other laws that we don’t like.

zoyclem on January 29, 2014 at 4:21 PM

Only ‘probationary legal status’ I’d support is one where they’re ‘legal’ for a short amount of time so they could leave the country.

blockchords on January 29, 2014 at 4:22 PM

It still seems we are taking the very jobs from our own young and returning military. And I don’t want to hear that crap about jobs American’s won’t do, what could be worse than being in that Hellhole in the Middle East getting shot at?

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:22 PM

Give me a billion dollars and I will secure both sides of the fence….
North and south.
Our neighbors may not like it – screw them.

redguy on January 29, 2014 at 4:17 PM

Really – 5,500 miles of northern border, and 1,900 miles of southern border – and you’re going to do it with $1b. So $135,000 per mile and you get it done – good luck with that.

Again – I will with you on the idea – but no way is that possible.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:22 PM

We should believe Congress because it kept its word in 1986:

* There were only 300,000 illegals – max (Chuck Schumer)
* The border was secured
* It was the last amnesty ever

LOL!

bw222 on January 29, 2014 at 4:23 PM

Giving up even before making an effort ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:16 PM

.
Giving up RATHER than make an effort.

One of these days Al Qaeda will smuggle a nuclear weapon across the Mexican border and detonate it in a major American city.

There are a hundred ways to secure the Mexican border – one or more of them will be put in place AFTER a nuclear weapon kills 100,000+ Americans in a millionth of a second.

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:23 PM

Time to light up the phones and the emails.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:23 PM

Yes – again – the reality of our border is almost inconceivable.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:17 PM

Ofcourse our borders can be secured if we do the right things and STOP thinking what our enemies want us to think.
I know Dems will do everything to harm our country ,
but why are Rs joining hands with them ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:23 PM

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:22 PM

Then open the doors wide and support everyone. Is that what other countries do? Like Mexico?

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

It still seems we are taking the very jobs from our own young and returning military.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:22 PM

A part of our problem is the limiting scale of our debates, on immigration reform. We treat the subject as a whole – and not as box of thousands of smaller issues. We miss progress because we only see a long journey – not the first step.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.

Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

Yeah, “immigration reform” is the only issue that is keeping Latinos from voting Republican. Why they would never vote Democrat if only the GOP would embrace amnesty.

Keep telling yourself that while you, indeed, watch the GOP become a permanent minority party.

Bitter Clinger on January 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.

Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

What will ensure we never win an election again is importing thirty+ million new Democrats and putting every single one of them on welfare.

Doomberg on January 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

The U.S. Border will NEVER be secure, it is a virtual impossibility. Anyone who thinks it can be secured, I invite you to review a map of the border. Both Canadian and Mexican borders please.
Secure border is a non-starter.
jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:07 PM

You bash Ted Cruz and conservatives who expect immigration law enforcement and a more secure border whenever you can.

You and other RINO’s may try to claim that a more secure border is “impossible”, but the truth is that the real obstacle to a secure border is not the border region topography but a lack of political will among elected reps.

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:25 PM

Shouldn’t Ryan be busy sticking it to the veterans?

viking01 on January 29, 2014 at 3:38 PM

Paul Ryan can multi-task; he can sell out American veterans, (redistributing the spending to DC cronies), just as profitably as he can sell out American workers, also in favor of Boomtown cronies. He can sell out everybody all at once, and get paid better than anybody else for doing so.

FloatingRock on January 29, 2014 at 4:26 PM

Time to light up the phones and the emails.
Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:23 PM

Hell yes it is. Right on.

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:26 PM

The kind of people we need for President and VP are people like Mike Lee, who doesn’t raise millions from boomtown cronies because he isn’t selling out. Not Paul Ryan, one of the biggest sellouts of them all.

FloatingRock on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

I’m telling my Congresswoman that if anything like this passes the House, she will never get my vote again. It’s not enough for her to vote no, she needs to encourage others to vote no. She needs to make sure this doesn’t pass.

The GOP lost me in 2013. My delegation is on the hook now.

Chris of Rights on January 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM


FYI …

The Republican House caucus is on a three day retreat to discuss strategy going forward …

which means RIGHT NOW is a VERY GOOD TIME to let your Republican Congressperson KNOW your position on IMMIGRATION.

Ever wonder why more of these “conservative” blogs DON’T pass along little facts like the one above?

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

You and other RINO’s may try to claim that a more secure border is “impossible”, but the truth is that the real obstacle to a secure border is not the border region topography but a lack of political will among elected reps.

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:25 PM

No, it’s not an issue of will power – it IS topography. It is manpower, and it is politics. Do you see Canada wanting to building a fence to keep us out of Canada?

I don’t want to be perceived as bashing anyone, I simply refuse to be a sheep on issues this complex.

Don’t fear a debate.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

They have to get amnesty done quick so they can feel good about themselves for raising the minimum wage. Not to worry though, after the amnesty we’ll have hordes of cheap, illegal labor yet again. And they say slavery ended. Pfffftttt…. Democrats.

rhombus on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.
Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

hmmmm, so is this what you think ALL CONSERVATIVES DO??

Or, the GOP could keep doing what it’s doing. Same result.

besser tot als rot on January 29, 2014 at 4:13 PM

or, we could listen to Mitt Romney….he’s
says we’ve got a Fat LBJ waiting in the wings….

ToddPA on January 29, 2014 at 4:28 PM

And this is why Obama said next to nothing about illegals in the SOTU. The co-ruling party of backstabbers is going to do his dirty work for him.

Don L on January 29, 2014 at 4:28 PM

Okay, Wisconsin, you know what you have to do.

SouthernGent on January 29, 2014 at 4:28 PM

The U.S. Border will NEVER be secure, it is a virtual impossibility. Anyone who thinks it can be secured, I invite you to review a map of the border. Both Canadian and Mexican borders please.
Secure border is a non-starter.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:07 PM

A relatively secure border would be relatively easy with things like a crackdown on businesses that employ illegals, a fence, and better monitoring. Yes, some illegals will still slip through. But we certainly won’t the problem of having one quarter of Mexico’s population in the US living off government handouts.

The bottom line is you just don’t want any border enforcement and are looking for excuses as to why it’s “impossible.”.

Doomberg on January 29, 2014 at 4:28 PM

Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

You’re assuming that all Hispanics support amnesty.
How very patronizing of you.

annoyinglittletwerp on January 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM

Good point. And, that all illegals are Latinos.
Shame on you diva.

HornetSting on January 29, 2014 at 4:28 PM

You can tell that neither the republicans nor the democratics will do anything to improve the border or interior enforcement or employer enforcement because they have had since 2007, when the last push to legalize the illegals was blocked by the American people, to do something about it and they have not done anything. As a matter of fact, in response to the people’s demand that the border be secured a law was passed to build a fence along the border in 2006. Much of that fence required by law remains unbuilt 8 years later.

jaime on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

It still seems we are taking the very jobs from our own young and returning military. And I don’t want to hear that crap about jobs American’s won’t do, what could be worse than being in that Hellhole in the Middle East getting shot at?

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:22 PM

It’s like they want to destroy the civil society to concentrate power…

the_nile on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

The U.S. Border will NEVER be secure, it is a virtual impossibility. Anyone who thinks it can be secured, I invite you to review a map of the border. Both Canadian and Mexican borders please.
Secure border is a non-starter.
jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:07 PM

Russia has a lot more miles of border than we do. You think Russia doesn’t enforce its border when it catches someone violating it?

Bitter Clinger on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

“Vote Paul Ryan, Roman Catholic for Congress”

reddevil on January 29, 2014 at 3:25 PM

Actually, it’s mostly about Paul Ryan pleasing his liberal wife.

bw222 on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Israel can.

the_nile on January 29, 2014 at 4:09 PM

Also, Mexico can!!! They do it by deporting illegals. They don’t allow illegals to buy property. Mexico can be a model for the USA. See, I’m not racist. Big props to the Mexican way. Let’s learn from the wise Mexican people….or the Turkish, Japanese, South African…… and every other dang country on the planet. OR we could try the unprecedented experiment of mass amnesty for a population that sneaked in.

For all those pushing this (Diva)… Why not start with 10,000 illegals and see how that goes? Do a 5 year study and check the results. That’s the rational way to do this. Trying a small sample first – that’s how smart people develop big solutions. Doing it whole hog with no cares – that’s how idiots go about things.

BoxHead1 on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Paul Ryan: Under our plan, illegals will have probationary legal status while the border is being secured

Bull.

Dr. ZhivBlago on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

What the hell is in the water down there in DC?
What part of NO NO NO NO don’t you understand Paul.
Didn’t you learn anything from the Rubio fiasco?

ouldbollix on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

Russia has a lot more miles of border than we do. You think Russia doesn’t enforce its border when it catches someone violating it?

Bitter Clinger on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Excellent – so our role model is Russia? Pretty sure you did not mean that!

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

The Dirty Little “Secret”: The reason that politician supporters of “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” want it is so that they and/or their campaign contributors can have serf labor. They would probably prefer actual out-and-out slaves but that is illegal. “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” Democrats, like Obama, also want it so that those who are now illegal can become legal and vote for them, if they aren’t voting for them already.

Does anyone think that any of these “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” politicians actually care one wit otherwise for the illegals. Does anyone think that any of the “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” politicians are going to invite these Mexican Indios and Mezclados to join their elite/exclusive golf clubs? Come to live in their gated communities, other than as servants? Invite them to their yachts, other than as low paid deck hands and/or servants? Invite them to their cocktail parties? Introduce them to their daughters?

The big majority of the Mexicans who have come here/will come here are Indios and Mezclados, not the Spanish descendant fair-skinned ruling class of Mexico. This is a form of ethnic cleansing by Mexico’s ruling class. So these “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” politicians are aiding and abetting and facilitating ethnic cleansing. If the U.N. were not such a joke, they would all be standing trial for trying to reintroduce a form of latter-day-slavery in the United States and for the mass ethnic cleansing of Mexico.

VorDaj on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

I am more than willing for them to make it cheaper and faster for people to come here legally but I am not and never will be for rewarding people who broke the law. I don’t get to break the law and I live here and pay taxes. And it’s time for companies (like Google has) to start programs to teach returning Vets how to prosper in jobs that need to be filled here. Why is that any more expensive the giving money to some damn sleazy politician with no guarantee on the return.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:31 PM

but the truth is that the real obstacle to a secure border is not the border region topography but a lack of political will among elected reps.

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:25 PM

I’m sure our border topography is not worse than this

We have enough manpower to sit with their guns pointed at mehico and shoot anything and everything that moves towards our side.

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:32 PM

Yeah, sure they will – until President Choom issues a new XO.

Another Drew on January 29, 2014 at 4:33 PM

Does enforcing immigration laws mean losing the Hispanic vote? Does passing amnesty mean winning the Hispanic vote?

Not even close:

In 1980 and in 1984 Ronald Reagan received 35% of the Hispanic vote and in 37% respectively.

In 1986 Reagan signed the IRCA amnesty which legalized over 3 million illegal aliens, with 12- 15 million additional beneficiaries from chain migration. Hispanics were overwhelmingly rewarded with amnesty. But…

In 1988 George H.W. Bush, who supported the IRCA as Vice President got only 30% of the Hispanic vote, 7 points fewer than Reagan and less than two years after the amnesty went into effect.

In 1992 Bush-1 saw his Hispanic vote total decline to 25%, a 12 point drop from Reagan’s second election, and he lost the election to Bill Clinton.

In 1996, five weeks before the November election, Clinton signed the IIRIRA, the toughest immigration enforcement legislation in a generation and Hispanics rewarded him with a staggering 71% of the vote for his re-election.

Article source: http://www.examiner.com/article/win-the-hispanic-vote-with-tough-immigration-enforcement

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:33 PM

Excellent – so our role model is Russia? Pretty sure you did not mean that!

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

Not as a role model but to put your silly notion that border security is “impossible” to rest.

Bitter Clinger on January 29, 2014 at 4:33 PM

Don’t fear a debate.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

.
No, you just make blanket statements without a single fact to support them.

I’ve got a degree in civil engineering. I’ve worked in the nuclear field and on military facilities here and abroad.

It might end up costing $ 1 trillion dollars … but unlike the money the Fed is pissing away on QE …

… “securing the Mexican border” would create 100,000 contruction jobs minimum.

It is ONLY a matter of political will and you are in the ONLY country on Earth that treats its border security as if it doesn’t matter.

When we lose 100,000+ people in a millionth of a second – it will matter THEN.

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:33 PM

I am more than willing for them to make it cheaper and faster for people to come here legally but I am not and never will be for rewarding people who broke the law.

Yes 100% agreement there

I don’t get to break the law and I live here and pay taxes. And it’s time for companies (like Google has) to start programs to teach returning Vets how to prosper in jobs that need to be filled here.

Yes 100% agreement there – and other nations are beginning to get fed up with these same companies for these issues.

Why is that any more expensive the giving money to some damn sleazy politician with no guarantee on the return.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:31 PM

I am at a loss – and in 100% agreement with you.

As with so many issues today, leadership is lacking. Leadership is in part the ability to frame issues. With about 70% of the public not liking the idea of amnesty, how is it we all feel like that battle is being lost?

No leadership, or leaders with an inability to articulate the issue.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:34 PM

What I don’t get is the simple…Let’s secure the border first, lock it down, fail-safe, than we can talk about the next step.

The “probation” and secure the border are two separate issues…

One is constitutional, the feds are required to defend and protect us from invasion, defend and protect the borders.

The other is whatever…

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:35 PM

Let me make sure I follow Mr. Conservative’s logic…. when I come home and find that my back yard is filled with strangers that have helped themselves to the use of my pool, the contents of my kitchen is on the grill… and there is no more liquor in the house…. I’m not supposed to kick them out…. I’m supposed to make a store run to restock the party….

roflmmfao

donabernathy on January 29, 2014 at 4:35 PM

Excellent – so our role model is Russia? Pretty sure you did not mean that!

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

So we shouldn’t enforce our borders because Russia does it too ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:36 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform
Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

Wrong. This is not about “immigration reform”, there’s already a process for persons who want to immigrate to the US. What this is about is a special citizenship giveaway to foreign criminals.

whatcat on January 29, 2014 at 4:36 PM

Look who doesn’t want to win back the Senate in 2014. Repubs think you’re just a bunch of tools who will go to the polls for them no matter what they do.

WordsMatter on January 29, 2014 at 4:08 PM

I think it’s just the opposite. They think that they are going to get such a boost from Obamacare that they just won’t need the base in 2014, and they figure “you’ll get over it” by 2016. So basically Obamacare is going to give us amnesty to boot, and they are probably right. Ultimately it’s the end of the GOP, but that’s only going to be a surprise to the GOPe.

DFCtomm on January 29, 2014 at 4:37 PM

Paul Ryan: Under our plan, illegals will have probationary legal status while the border is being secured

Is there any doubt left???

Gohawgs on January 29, 2014 at 4:37 PM

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:33 PM

No, you just make blanket statements without a single fact to support them

You might read my posts more carefully.

I’ve got a degree in civil engineering. I’ve worked in the nuclear field and on military facilities here and abroad.

Congratulations – that’s very impressive.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:37 PM

What I don’t get is the simple…Let’s secure the border first, lock it down, fail-safe, than we can talk about the next step.

The “probation” and secure the border are two separate issues…

One is constitutional, the feds are required to defend and protect us from invasion, defend and protect the borders.

The other is whatever…

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:35 PM

It’s that simple and that shows they dont want to do it .

the_nile on January 29, 2014 at 4:37 PM

Alrighty then, saves time on voting day; rip off the top of the ballot and concentrate on city dog catcher and local district 6a judge.

Bishop on January 29, 2014 at 4:39 PM

Excellent – so our role model is Russia? Pretty sure you did not mean that!

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

The point being, almost all nations protect and defend their border against incursions…not that Russia is a role model.

Especially one that has a systemic problem with illegal border crossings.

I guess they don’t teach comprehension in schools anymore.

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:39 PM

So we shouldn’t enforce our borders because Russia does it too ?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:36 PM

I will try this again.

Real boarder security will never happen. You plug the north and south (which you cannot) – then people will come in from our ocean borders.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:40 PM

And I want my vote back, you fool.

Remember all those shirts with Ryan’s face on it and the word “Math” underneath, boy howdy did we get that wrong, the man doesn’t understand even the basics.

Bishop on January 29, 2014 at 4:41 PM

No, it’s not an issue of will power – it IS topography. It is manpower, and it is politics. Do you see Canada wanting to building a fence to keep us out of Canada?

I don’t want to be perceived as bashing anyone, I simply refuse to be a sheep on issues this complex.

Don’t fear a debate.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

there’s no correlation between building a fence and granting everyone who enters our country legal status. fine- whether or not to build a fence is a complex issue. We may not have the money or manpower to do that.

That does not translate into “Oh, then we have to give every human on earth who wants it legal status to reside and work in the U.S.”

People who are pro-amnesty often do this – claim that “well, we can’t realistically round them all up and deport them, so we HAVE TO give them legal status.” That is not logic. One does not follow from the other.

We can leave the illegals in status quo. There is no reason – no U.S. interest, requiring granting them legal status. We do not need the labor (our unemployment is high). The vast majority of the illegals have no special skills the U.S. needs. There is simply no rational reason requiring us to grant illegals legal status.

Yet, there are tons of rational reasons why granting illegals legal status is a terrible idea and will reap terrible consequences for the U.S. The most obvious is that it will create an enormous incentive for tens of millions more people to enter the U.S. illegally. the second most obvious is that it will create huge costs as people with legal status become eligible for various state and federal entitlements. And there are plenty more cons to providing legal status.

There is not one “pro” U.S. interest to granting legal status. The only thing I’ve ever heard is a “moral” argument that somehow it is our duty to let every person who wants to live and work in America do so. Not really a rational argument, that.

So, sure, it is a complex issue whether or not we build a wall. Whether or not we grant legal status is absolutely NOT a complex issue. It is a very straightforward and simple issue, that people who want amnesty attempt to make complex because they have no arguments.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:41 PM

Illegal immigration : Republican Party :: slavery : Whig Party.

Fabozz on January 29, 2014 at 4:41 PM

Actually, it’s mostly about Paul Ryan pleasing his liberal wife.

bw222 on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Ryan said himself that it was his faith that compels him to display compassion toward illegals.

HiJack on January 29, 2014 at 4:42 PM

Whether or not we grant legal status is absolutely NOT a complex issue. It is a very straightforward and simple issue, that people who want amnesty attempt to make complex because they have no arguments.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:41 PM

I agree. I never made any argument for amnesty – not ever.

I agree with you.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

The Hispanic Vote Isn’t why Romney Lost:

However, the Hispanic vote was 7% of the electorate. This is not talked about much, but I think it’s kind of important. Obama and Romney split 7% of the electorate. Obama got 71% of it; Romney got 27% of it. “If all other factors remained the same, how large percentage of the Hispanic vote would Romney have had to win to capture the White House? What if Romney had won 44% of the Hispanic vote, the high-water mark for Republicans achieved by George W. Bush in 2004?”

No Republican has ever, in a presidential race, gotten more. So plug that number in. What if Romney gets 44% of the Hispanic vote — which, again, is 7% of the electorate. “As it turns out, if Romney had hit that Bush mark, he still would have lost, with 240 electoral votes to 298 for Obama. But what if Romney had been able to make history and attract 50% of Hispanic voters? What then? He still would have been beaten, 283 electoral votes to 255.” Okay, so let’s get really big here.

“What if Romney had been able to do something absolutely astonishing for a Republican and win 60% of the Hispanic vote? He would have lost by the same margin, 283 electoral votes to 255.” Okay, so let’s go all-in! Let’s give Romney 70% of the Hispanic vote. It’ll never happen. That’s what Obama got. Let’s give Romney the Obama percentage of the Hispanic vote. Let’s give Romney 70%. “Surely that would have meant victory, right? No, it wouldn’t. Romney still would have lost, although by the narrowest of electoral margins: 270 to 268.

Full article: http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2013/05/03/the_hispanic_vote_isn_t_why_romney_lost

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

You know what is going to guarantee that Republicans never win an election again.. Go hardcore against immigration reform and say disparaging words about Latinos in the process.

Illinidiva on January 29, 2014 at 4:10 PM

What will ensure we never win an election again is importing thirty+ million new Democrats and putting every single one of them on welfare.

Doomberg on January 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

They’re already on welfare. They will just get more.

HornetSting on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

The liberal republicans don’t give a hoot about winning elections. They probably lay awake, dreaming at night about their rosy futures as lobbyists.
Selling out the country for their own greed. That’s what we have here.
How much money was on the take from big biz to Boehner’s et al. pockets?
We’ll never know.
Fools going to the polls? No fool here, there’s nothing to vote for in our 1 party system. Save your gas.
A government of the lobbyists, by the lobbyists, for the lobbyists, shall be the ruination of this once great Nation, driven by money, power & greed.

Belle on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

The Dirty Little “Secret”: The reason that politician supporters of “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” want it is so that they and/or their campaign contributors can have serf labor. They would probably prefer actual out-and-out slaves but that is illegal.
VorDaj on January 29, 2014 at 4:30 PM

Correct. It’s also extremely shortsighted since the Dems will unionize the illegals, there will be lawsuits, and demands for special benefits, costing businesses a whole lot more than if they had just hired legal workers instead.

whatcat on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

I agree. I never made any argument for amnesty – not ever.

I agree with you.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

Sorry then. Misread your comment.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

I guess they don’t teach comprehension in schools anymore.

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:39 PM

Keyboard insults – ahh yes.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:44 PM

The amnesty discussion always fails to discuss the bigger issue – family reunification.

Studies show that illegals who received amnesty in 1986 sponsored an average of 5 relatives. If there are 11 million (likely a lowball figure), we are talking about 60+ million uneducated, unskilled aliens (illegals and relatives). Mexico will, in effect, drained its swamp of nonproductive people.

How many of these people will end up on welfare? How many (after becoming citizens) will figure out that it makes more sense to go on disability than work in the fields? How are we going to have enough doctors for 60+ million additional poor people? How is this going to affect our educational system? How will 60+ million poor benefit the United States?

These are questions that won’t be discussed because of political correctness.

bw222 on January 29, 2014 at 4:44 PM

The fact that only 3% of the population polled (probably illegals) give a flying flip about this issue tells you all you need to know. Follow the money.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:45 PM

Sorry then. Misread your comment.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:43 PM

No worries – all good. Debates are riddled with apologies – I make my share – or more.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:45 PM

Real boarder security will never happen. You plug the north and south (which you cannot) – then people will come in from our ocean borders.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:40 PM

and as a superpower, we don’t have the tchnology and resources to fire in international waters with lethal consequences?

burrata on January 29, 2014 at 4:46 PM

Terrible policy, and even worse timing.

No one who hasn’t been in a coma the last five years can trust Obama to uphold ANY enforcement provisions. He will “waive” them and twerk in our faces.

The GOP leadership needs a cold dose of reality. All this can accomplish is to draw the spotlights off the train wrecks of ObamaCare, Iran, and the economy. And Harry Reid will use any bill the House serves up as an excuse to call for a conference including the odious Schumer-Rubio amnesty bill.

~~

So, to recap:

Potential to solve immigration problems: ZERO
Potential for political advantage: ZERO
Potential for honest conference w/Senate: ZERO
Potential for honest execution of law by Obama: ZERO

This is just nuts.

BUT there still is no actual bill presented, so the possibility it is all a big Kabuki play in a Potemkin theater remains. Don’t panic just yet – but call your congressman anyway.

Adjoran on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Ryan said himself that it was his faith that compels him to display compassion toward illegals.

HiJack on January 29, 2014 at 4:42 PM

So a family of 12 newly arrived illegals will be moving into the Ryan house sometime soon.

Wassat? What? You said something, Ryan? You didn’t mean that sort of compassion? Oh. I see.

Bishop on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Keyboard insults – ahh yes.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:44 PM

No, just tired of people making statements that a poster never made…he never said they were a poster child, he was pointing out that Russia defends it’s borders. And you got snotty, and you were called out and now you are pouting…ahhh yes.

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Actually, it’s mostly about Paul Ryan pleasing his liberal wife.

bw222 on January 29, 2014 at 4:29 PM

Ryan said himself that it was his faith that compels him to display compassion toward illegals.

HiJack on January 29, 2014 at 4:42 PM

this is where religious politicians – left and right – make a huge mistake. He is not personally showing compassion for illegals by pushing this / voting for this. He is abusing his office to force everyone else to do what he wants.

Put another way, it is not charity on your part to vote to use the gov’t to steal my money to give to someone else. Charity is when you do something from your own means – either through volunteering or through donating from your own assets.

Using the gov’t’s power to take from me to give to someone else is not charity on our part.

In the same way, doing this is not Ryan “displaying compassion for illegals”. that is something for him to do on his own time with his own means. Not with our collective means.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Hispanic voters ranked immigration reform last (31%) among a list of four priority issues, behind the economy (62%), healthcare (57%), and education (45%).

60% of Hispanic voters support tougher enforcement, with only 35% opposed.

64% of Hispanic voters support the use of E-verify, with only 29% opposed.

http://www.fairus.org/facts/illegal-immigration-and-amnesty-polls

bluegill on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Congratulations – that’s very impressive.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:37 PM

.
I was establishing my credentials for the statements I am making for someone who said he doesn’t “fear a debate”.

What YOU said was:

The U.S. Border will NEVER be secure, it is a virtual impossibility. Anyone who thinks it can be secured, I invite you to review a map of the border. Both Canadian and Mexican borders please.

Secure border is a non-starter.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:07 PM

.
So as I said, you just want to make blanket statements and “concern troll”.

So be it, shill.

*POOF!*, you’re a troll!

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:48 PM

Time to break out my stadium We’re No.1
Sponge finger that I modifed with another finger,
take a pic of it, and email it to all those wonderful
Reps in DC…..so if I no longer post here, everyone
will know NSA finally caught up with me…

..either that, or I went FULL AMISH.

ToddPA on January 29, 2014 at 4:48 PM

Even the Amish need a security apparatus, right? There’s a place for all of us, we just need to learn to do without zippers.

Bishop on January 29, 2014 at 4:51 PM

No, it’s not an issue of will power – it IS topography. It is manpower, and it is politics. Do you see Canada wanting to building a fence to keep us out of Canada?

I don’t want to be perceived as bashing anyone, I simply refuse to be a sheep on issues this complex.

Don’t fear a debate.

jake-the-goose on January 29, 2014 at 4:27 PM

You know, when you have to say “technically you’re right” then the person you said that to is a nitpicking jerk, and now on to the immigration issue. Technically you’re right we will never be able to completely secure the border, but we could achieve our goals by making the illegals uncomfortable, and we do that by denying them jobs, residences, and benefits. When we begin to do that, then you know the government is serious about enforcement. However, we aren’t going to stop Grizzly Adams from playing hop scotch with the border in some great northern forest.

DFCtomm on January 29, 2014 at 4:52 PM

The irony, probably most of us have ancestors that came over illegally.

Most of the Italians, Irish, Polish, entered “illegally”, the Cuban’s why they, as soon as they touch soil, are considered “legal”.

So here we are deciding now, that our ancestors were illegal, so I guess most of us pack up our bags and move on out…huh?

How about securing the border, and making sure who is here is here for the right reason, than decide with those remaining, who gets to stay, who contributes to America, and who does not.

An “illegal” immigrant, amazingly, can be a better American, than about 20% of the rest of the nation.

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:52 PM

PolAgnostic on January 29, 2014 at 4:48 PM

We’re all trolls about something.

Cindy Munford on January 29, 2014 at 4:53 PM

Ryan said himself that it was his faith that compels him to display compassion toward illegals.

HiJack on January 29, 2014 at 4:42 PM

So a family of 12 newly arrived illegals will be moving into the Ryan house sometime soon.

Wassat? What? You said something, Ryan? You didn’t mean that sort of compassion? Oh. I see.

Bishop on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Oh, the compassion. New Mexico—There is nothing more appealing than going into a public bathroom and seeing a pile of excrement covered toilet paper because they don’t flush it…they just wipe and throw.
My cats have better manners. Good luck Paul, you douche.

HornetSting on January 29, 2014 at 4:53 PM

In the same way, doing this is not Ryan “displaying compassion for illegals”. that is something for him to do on his own time with his own means. Not with our collective means.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Far too many people mistake government action for personal charity. In other words, people believe they are “good” and “charitable” because they vote for some liberal policy, while engaging in no actual personal charity.

this is salvation on the cheap. Believing that by voting for the gov’t to do things, you are buying grace or karma or whatever. Which is why a lot of rich liberals are liberals. It’s easier to vote for gov’t action than take personal action. It’s easier to vote for gov’t action than give up a lot of one’s wealth, or treat one’s fellow humans better.

I can live in my mansion, fly my private jet, leave a huge carbon foot-print (not that I believe in AGR), treat everyone I interact with horribly, be a terrible father and terrible husband, but if I vote dem – I can claim to be a good person to my fellow man, charitable and good to the environment.

Monkeytoe on January 29, 2014 at 4:54 PM

The one thing, with drones, electronic, physical fences…we can secure the border from incursion. That is an absolute, we have tens of thousands of service men who have signed up to defend the U.S. against invasion.

And for the question of North or South, we place it where we are receiving the most “damage”, just like any battle.

That would be the South first, but a beefing up of the North also.

right2bright on January 29, 2014 at 4:54 PM

Here’s a thought…… a way out of the shadows should involve following the exit signs. Like in a movie theater.

Happy Nomad on January 29, 2014 at 4:55 PM

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