Coming in 2016: Another filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate?

posted at 4:41 pm on January 23, 2014 by Allahpundit

Good lord. It’s hard to out-eeyore the big A, but when I’m beat, I’m man enough to admit it. Well played, Sean Trende. Very well played.

He’s not saying it’s likely to happen, mind you, just that there’s a slim but not insignificant chance. His point is that, while it may seem like this year’s Senate races don’t matter — Obama will still be in the White House next year and Republicans will still control the House, so nothing’s getting passed either way — they matter a lot in determining who’ll control Congress when a new president’s inaugurated in 2017. The Democrats have a bunch of weak incumbents in purplish states up for reelection this year and they’ll have a bunch more in 2018. But in 2016 it’s Republicans who’ll be playing defense in Senate battlegrounds, an especially dangerous prospect given that turnout is always higher in a presidential election year and there are more registered Democratic voters nationally than Republican ones. As such, it’s highly likely that the GOP will lose seats in 2016, says Trende, just as it’s highly likely that they’ll win some this year. The money question is whether they can win enough in 2014 to ensure that they’ll still control the chamber after shedding a few seats two years from now.

How many constitutes “enough”? Well, after running several thousand simulations of the 2016 Senate elections, Trende finds it’s more likely than not that Democrats will win four seats that year. Which means, to give themselves a fair shot at holding the chamber into 2017, the GOP would need to win 10 seats this year, creating a temporary 55/45 advantage. Is that possible? Actually, yes — depending upon how dismal Obama’s job approval is this November. If it’s still stuck in the 40-43 percent range, a Democratic bloodbath on election day is a distinct possibility. And what if O’s job approval rebounds and the GOP performs much worse than expected? Then it’s … hard-liquor time:

st

The 2016 Senate landscape is so difficult for Republicans that, even if they win eight (eight!) seats this year and do well enough in 2016 to recapture the White House, Trende still thinks it’s more likely than not that the Dems will retake the Senate two years from now. Meanwhile, if the GOP underperforms this year and wins only, say, three seats, then not only is it virtually certain that Democrats will retake the Senate in 2016 but they’ll have a very outside chance of getting to 60 — a filibuster-proof majority,. How’s that for tonight’s nightmare fuel? President Hillary plus a Reid-led Senate that can rubber-stamp any Supreme Court nominee she wants. Dude, I’m nervous.

One big question, though: How likely is it that the filibuster will still exist in 2016, regardless of which party controls the Senate? If Democrats hold the chamber this year and a SCOTUS vacancy opens up next year, Reid will nuke a bit more of the filibuster and confirm the nominee with a simple majority. If the next president comes from the same party that controls the Senate in 2016, it’s a cinch that the majority leader will nuke the rest of the filibuster by eliminating the 60-vote threshold for cloture on legislation too. A “filibuster-proof majority” won’t matter soon; to the extent it does, it only means that Reid wouldn’t need to nuke the rest of the filibuster to pass Hillary’s agenda. But he’ll do it eventually, or the new GOP majority leader will. The reason to worry about Senate seats beyond the 51-vote threshold needed for control is, of course, because it gives you a margin for error. If Republicans end up with 51 next year, that’s nice, but no one thinks Collins, Murkowski, Kirk, and the rest of the RINO nucleus will hold the line against an Obama Supreme Court nominee. Fifty-one is important for keeping Democratic bills off the floor, but to make the majority RINO-proof, you need something in the mid-50s so you don’t have to worry about RINOs voting against you. Which is why even conservatives disgusted with the party leadership, especially on amnesty, will be sorely tempted to turn out this year.


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cdog0613 on January 23, 2014 at 4:41 PM

OT: Gateway Pundit has proof Barry was a foreign student.

John the Libertarian on January 23, 2014 at 4:45 PM

Btw, Trende also talks about the “horrific playing field for Democrats in 2018″, so even if they do re-take the Senate, it’ll likely be temporary.

cdog0613 on January 23, 2014 at 4:45 PM

The biggest reason why the 17th Amendment needs to be voted out of existence. Senate was supposed to be the state’s voice and instead it’s just another popularity contest.

Rufus on January 23, 2014 at 4:45 PM

The asinine Senate candidate choices from 2010 and 2012 will reverberate for years to come.

Mark1971 on January 23, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Too soon. I gotta ignore these posts.

22044 on January 23, 2014 at 4:48 PM

I said this in the headlines story, but will say it again:

Is it time already to start the “this is the most important election in our lifetimes so you have to vote GOP no matter how much you disdain them” arguments?

I did not know we were already at that point. Usually, those arguments are slightly closer to the election.

I suppose when you can’t make any argument in favor of voting for the GOP, you are left only with arguments about how the world will end if we don’t.

I expect these type of “if the GOP doesn’t win the Senate this year, the apocalypse will happen” type articles to really start coming fast and furious now. Just imagine how nice it would be if there were an actual reason to vote for the GOP. Like, they opposed amnesty? they were for repealing Obamacare? they are for reducing debt? They are for reducing spending? They are for shrinking gov’t?

Unfortunately, none of those are true. So we are left with “but the DNC is really, really bad. . . “

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 4:50 PM

Yeah baby! Afterall, the Dems are great in the Senate!!

What’s not to like??

ToddPA on January 23, 2014 at 4:50 PM

While I do get his line of thinking I also think the screw Obama and the party he rode in on mentality will be a bigger factor.Does anybody really think things are heading anywhere but down in the meantime??

Southernblogger on January 23, 2014 at 4:51 PM

The Democrats have a bunch of weak incumbents in purplish states up for reelection this year and they’ll have a bunch more in 2018. But in 2016 it’s Republicans who’ll be playing defense in Senate battlegrounds, an especially dangerous prospect given that turnout is always higher in a presidential election year and there are more registered Democratic voters nationally than Republican ones. As such, it’s highly likely that the GOP will lose seats in 2016, says Trende, just as it’s highly likely that they’ll win some this year.

One not-so-small caveat, AP. OBAMACARE!!! It’s the reason Obama’s numbers are tanking and the Dems are in for a bloodbath this November(barring the House passing amnesty). And while the Senate races may be more favorable to the Dems in 2016, Obamacare isn’t going to go away as an issue. If anything, it’ll be more prevalent thanks to the Presidential election and it could be far more toxic as things continue to unravel with the law.

Doughboy on January 23, 2014 at 4:52 PM

Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase, said earlier today that he is still a Democrat despite the recent Sandinista turn. This guy is loaded, hated, and still votes Democrat… along with the rest of the well-heeled swells.

The country is too far gone. Maybe when Jamie feels the boiling water he too will hop out of the pot with the rest of us.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 4:57 PM

If anything, it’ll be more prevalent thanks to the Presidential election and it could be far more toxic as things continue to unravel with the law.

Doughboy on January 23, 2014 at 4:52 PM

Unfortunately, this won’t work. The GOP will “fix” Obamacare and therefore give it bi-partisan coverage.

If the GOP holds the house and the senate between 2014-2016, and they can’t over-ride a veto – do you really have confidence in the GOP to allow Obamacare to simply fail?

No, the GOP will not be able to take the heat as things go from bad to worse, and will instead negotiate with Obama to “fix” Obamacare, which will then give Obamacare a bi-partisan cover, which will result in the GOP not being able to run against Obamacare in 2016.

Heck, even if the GOP doesn’t take the Senate in 2014, this is still going to happen. Both Boehner and McConnell have stated that they intend to “fix” Obamacare and I can’t see the GOP standing firm against passing some kind of “fixes” when the public is screaming angry about Obamacare.

Plus, by that time the GOP will have given Amnesty and we will start to see the results of millions of new democrat voters.

It doesn’t matter whether the GOP wins or loses. the gov’t is going to grow, spending is going to increase, amnesty is going to be passed and Obamacare will remain.

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 4:59 PM

Don’t count your chickens until they cross the road.

itsspideyman on January 23, 2014 at 4:59 PM

The asinine Senate candidate choices from 2010 and 2012 will reverberate for years to come.

Mark1971 on January 23, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Amen to that. Let’s see if we can avoid some of those fatal mistakes this election cycle. I doubt it. The irrational wing of the TP is bound give us another Akin or Angle this year. God help us.

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM

I think it’s interesting we all think voting and electing Token Opposition Republicans will arrest the leftward drift of the country.

Other than holding down French levels of taxation, what exactly has the American Right won? Demographics alone seals the deal for a permanent left-wing majority in the future.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:01 PM

Democrats already have a de facto filibuster proof majority in the Senate in case people haven’t been paying attention. Things aren’t much different in the House either. Boehner has already broken the Hastert rule something like 7 times which basically means he is doing Pelosi’s job.

Wigglesworth on January 23, 2014 at 5:01 PM

Somebody got into the best stash again. I don’t know how many times we have to tell the old geezers but here goes again: the pot today is a lot stronger than the pot you remember from your misguided youth.

platypus on January 23, 2014 at 5:02 PM

Amen to that. Let’s see if we can avoid some of those fatal mistakes this election cycle. I doubt it. The irrational wing of the TP is bound give us another Akin or Angle this year. God help us.

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM

You’re right.

Sincerely,
Linda McMahon, Tommy Thompson, Carly Fiorina, George Allen, Scott Brown, and Connie Mack(aka moderate Republican Senate candidates in 2010 & 2012 who all lost)

Doughboy on January 23, 2014 at 5:02 PM

Allah, your logic is flat out wrong.

A Republican majority will re-install the filibuster if it wins control of the Senate in 2014. Since the winners make the rules now, there is no reason why an Obama nominee should get through on a 51 vote majority. When there’s a Republican president and Senate, the Republicans can nuke the filibuster again after nominating a few nominees that the Democrats refuse to allow a final vote on.

blammm on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase, said earlier today that he is still a Democrat despite the recent Sandinista turn. This guy is loaded, hated, and still votes Democrat… along with the rest of the well-heeled swells.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 4:57 PM

It’s easy for rich people to be democrats. They don’t actually suffer from any of the liberal policies. they can afford great health-care no matter what. Their kids go to private schools. They live in gated communities. And their taxes never actually go up because they have teams of lawyers and accountants.

So, if you are rich, and want to go to the right parties and know the right people, why wouldn’t you be a democrat? It’s easy peasie – your politics salves your guilt and gets you into the right parties all while you never have to deal with the consequences of the policies that get enacted.

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM

You’re a low information person. You do know that, right?

platypus on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

It doesn’t matter whether the GOP wins or loses. the gov’t is going to grow, spending is going to increase, amnesty is going to be passed and Obamacare will remain.

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 4:59 PM

Yup. The Left always wins. Always. That is until they run out of money and it goes the way of the old USSR.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

Amen to that. Let’s see if we can avoid some of those fatal mistakes this election cycle. I doubt it. The irrational wing of the TP is bound give us another Akin or Angle this year. God help us.

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM

How are Sen. Charlie Crist & Trey Greyson doing?

tetriskid on January 23, 2014 at 5:04 PM

thatsafactjack on January 23, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Amen to that. Lord knows we can never have enough Graham/McCain/McConell/Collins/Cornyn in the senate!!!!

JAGonzo on January 23, 2014 at 5:05 PM

… or the new GOP majority leader will.

I’ll take that bet.

No one in Republican leadership today would have the cajones to do it.

Carnac on January 23, 2014 at 5:05 PM

Amen to that. Let’s see if we can avoid some of those fatal mistakes this election cycle. I doubt it. The irrational wing of the TP is bound give us another Akin or Angle this year. God help us.

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM

yes. No non-TP candidate ever lost an election and no TP-candidate ever won an election.

See, it’s easy – Tea Party bad, GOP good. The GOP has done so much for this country and for conservatism, while the TP has destroyed this country and conservatism.

quite simple. Full of facts and reason and logic.

I’m not sure why GOP lovers come to conservative sites. The GOP is not, never has been, and does not look like it ever will be, conservative. In fact, quite the opposite. the GOP is for bigger gov’t, more debt, more spending, more entitlements, and less freedom. Yet, here we are talking about how badly we want the GOP to win. to what purpose? Just slightly less more spending? Just slightly less more debt? Just slightly less more gov’t?

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

Where did Sean Trende buy that crystal ball that lets him see what’s going to happen in 2016?

Bitter Clinger on January 23, 2014 at 5:07 PM

Yup. The Left always wins. Always. That is until they run out of money and it goes the way of the old USSR.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

Your end result IS the ultimated end-game AND win for The Left.

Carnac on January 23, 2014 at 5:07 PM

thatsafactjack on January 23, 2014 at 4:27 PM
Amen to that. Lord knows we can never have enough Graham/McCain/McConell/Collins/Cornyn in the senate!!!!

JAGonzo on January 23, 2014 at 5:05 PM

Whoops. That should have been…

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM

JAGonzo on January 23, 2014 at 5:08 PM

Just slightly less more spending? Just slightly less more debt? Just slightly less more gov’t?

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

Despite the atrocious grammar, I understand exactly what you’re saying. And yes, I’m ashamed of myself.

platypus on January 23, 2014 at 5:08 PM

Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase, said earlier today that he is still a Democrat despite the recent Sandinista turn. This guy is loaded, hated, and still votes Democrat… along with the rest of the well-heeled swells.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 4:57 PM

It’s easy for rich people to be democrats. They don’t actually suffer from any of the liberal policies. they can afford great health-care no matter what. Their kids go to private schools. They live in gated communities. And their taxes never actually go up because they have teams of lawyers and accountants.

So, if you are rich, and want to go to the right parties and know the right people, why wouldn’t you be a democrat? It’s easy peasie – your politics salves your guilt and gets you into the right parties all while you never have to deal with the consequences of the policies that get enacted.

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

Exactly. I have little sympathy for these people. They’re enablers of the country’s and their own demise.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:09 PM

Of course if the Republicans perform poorly the Democrats will do well in Senate races in 2016. Duh.

Soon as I read that I knew there wasn’t anything really useful here. If the GOP nominates someone like that Walker, with a proven winning record in elections and conservative reform, charismatic and energetic in defending himself while remaining professional, it should do fine. Walker isn’t the only guy there but it needs to be someone like him in many respects to negate some traditional Democratic attacks on GOP candidates.

deepelemblues on January 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

When the communists are fully unmasked, people like Dimon will be among the 1st up against the wall. But to them, history is irrelevant.

tngmv on January 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

Yup. The Left always wins. Always. That is until they run out of money and it goes the way of the old USSR.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:03 PM

Your end result IS the ultimated end-game AND win for The Left.

Carnac on January 23, 2014 at 5:07 PM

There is no “ultimate end-game win” for the Left since the utopia they seek is impossible. There is only chaos, chaos, more chaos, and Detroit.

What does happen is civilization crumbles and a man on a horse — be it Augustus, Napoleon, or Putin — comes along to restore order and civilization.

A republic if you can keep it.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:13 PM

When the communists are fully unmasked, people like Dimon will be among the 1st up against the wall. But to them, history is irrelevant.

tngmv on January 23, 2014 at 5:11 PM

No, he will be on the next private flight to Switzerland. But then again, Jamie thinks he’s riding the tiger when it is really the tiger who is riding him.

Punchenko on January 23, 2014 at 5:16 PM

Just wait until the GOP passes amnesty this year. Then the Dems can get a 60-vote margin in the Senate 2 years earlier as conservatives stay home.

Clark1 on January 23, 2014 at 5:16 PM

As such, it’s highly likely that the GOP will lose seats in 2016, says Trende, just as it’s highly likely that they’ll win some this year.

How about we nominate a strong Conservative and see what happens to Trende’s predictions?

conservative pilgrim on January 23, 2014 at 5:17 PM

Good lord. It’s hard to out-eeyore the big A, but when I’m beat, I’m man enough to admit it. Well played, Sean Trende. Very well played.

Can atheists say Good lord?

By the numbers the GOP may be playing defense in 2016 but it is also an election year. I suspect there will be a big backlash against Democrats as a result of three more years of Obama’s shucking and jiving and doing nothing.

Happy Nomad on January 23, 2014 at 5:18 PM

Just wait until the GOP passes amnesty this year. Then the Dems can get a 60-vote margin in the Senate 2 years earlier as conservatives stay home.

Clark1 on January 23, 2014 at 5:16 PM

Then there’s that nightmare scenario. The only sure bet will be Republicans lose everything.

conservative pilgrim on January 23, 2014 at 5:18 PM

How about we nominate a strong Conservative and see what happens to Trende’s predictions?

conservative pilgrim on January 23, 2014 at 5:17 PM

Cruz/West 2016!

Happy Nomad on January 23, 2014 at 5:19 PM

Jamie Dimon is a Democrat for life. After all, JPMC is part of the $85B monthly bond buying.

22044 on January 23, 2014 at 5:20 PM

OT: Gateway Pundit has proof Barry was a foreign student.

John the Libertarian on January 23, 2014 at 4:45 PM

That was proven to be a fake a couple of years ago.

Del Dolemonte on January 23, 2014 at 5:21 PM

Cruz/West 2016!

Happy Nomad on January 23, 2014 at 5:19 PM

or West/Cruz

Wigglesworth on January 23, 2014 at 5:21 PM

A strong Republican Presidential contender might actually have coattails in 2016.

Sekhmet on January 23, 2014 at 5:24 PM

too far down the road. Don’t sweat it for now

jake49 on January 23, 2014 at 5:35 PM

Is it time already to start the “this is the most important election in our lifetimes so you have to vote GOP no matter how much you disdain them” arguments?

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 4:50 PM

Nope. 2012 was that test and the American electorate failed it. It’s pretty much rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic from here on out.

Kataklysmic on January 23, 2014 at 5:41 PM

Aside from some marginal victories, I am still trying to figure out how we’re better off with Boehner in there than Pelosi. Without their favorite foil (who gives them pretty much anything that they want anyway), seems to me that the Democrats might actually constrain themselves. Or, maybe not. But even still – we’d be about where we are now. Maybe marginally worse.

besser tot als rot on January 23, 2014 at 5:53 PM

The Rats are more likely to get a filibuster-proof majority in the 2014 elections than the “Republicans” are to get a majority in the 2014 elections. If that happens (or even if the Rats only get to 59), it is game over in the Senate – the Rats will have a quorum without either any Republicans or any Senator whose term is up in 2016, and as everybody knows, the Senate is the final judge of the elections and qualifications of its members.

Steve Eggleston on January 23, 2014 at 5:53 PM

Left out of the analysis…in 2016 a lot of GOP voters will have died. Funny thing happens when they achieve room temperature (for some strange reason they start pulling the D lever). New growth will probably trend towards D. But as noted above, a lot can happen so don’t sweat it.

teejk on January 23, 2014 at 5:54 PM

One big question, though: How likely is it that the filibuster will still exist in 2016, regardless of which party controls the Senate?

If either the Rats get a filibuster-proof majority or the Pubbies get a majority, it is a certainty the filibuster will remain intact. If the Rats have less than 60 seats but more than 50, it’s gone.

Steve Eggleston on January 23, 2014 at 5:57 PM

Is it time already to start the “this is the most important election in our lifetimes so you have to vote GOP no matter how much you disdain them” arguments?

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 4:50 PM

Nope. 2012 was that test and the American electorate failed it. It’s pretty much rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic from here on out.

Kataklysmic on January 23, 2014 at 5:41 PM

And don’t forget to thank a portion of that electorate that helped this happen-those Republicans who refused to vote for Romney. There are several here on Hot Gas. They know who they are, and they still refuse to apologize.

And despite their squeals to the contrary , their votes against Romney were in fact votes for O’bama. Just as their votes against McCain in 2008 were.

Del Dolemonte on January 23, 2014 at 6:03 PM

1 year Eeyore minimum.

portlandon on January 23, 2014 at 6:08 PM

The chart makes no sense. GOP can’t win 43-58 senate seats in 2014. There aren’t that many seats up for election.

crash72 on January 23, 2014 at 6:08 PM

Yep John….Gateway pundit left the story up but at the bottom:

UPDATE: The ID is a fake. The book bio was reportedly a mistake.

CWchangedhisNicagain on January 23, 2014 at 6:11 PM

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

I’m not sure why GOP lovers come to conservative sites.

The only way to advance conservatism is in the framework of a national party, you separate conservatives from the GOP and both will wither.

The GOP is not, never has been, and does not look like it ever will be, conservative.

Really sick of this BS. Are you 12 or something?

Yet, here we are talking about how badly we want the GOP to win. to what purpose? Just slightly less more spending? Just slightly less more debt? Just slightly less more gov’t?

The whole idea is to elect the most conservative people who you can get elected and then hold them accountable, to push them to be more conservative. You elect Republicans because they won’t reflexively call you a racist when you try to move them toward your position.
Here’s the whole entire crux of the problem: “Conservatives” have stopped working to promote and push their agenda. Somehow the idiotic idea that staying at home or even voting for democrats that you are sending a message to someone or something took off with the easily lead. The only message that you are sending is that you won’t get off your ass to help yourself and if you won’t actually work for it you are too erratic to be paid attention to. That will push the GOP farther left as a whole than the existence of some leftist New England Republican that somehow escaped the purges ever could.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:12 PM

Nope. 2012 was that test and the American electorate failed it. It’s pretty much rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic from here on out.

Kataklysmic on January 23, 2014 at 5:41 PM

Yep. For all intents and purposes, America, as we knew it, is finito.

Ain’t nothing left to do but sit back, kick off our shoes and watch the suffering of the fools that put us in position.

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

Nope. 2012 was that test and the American electorate failed it. It’s pretty much rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic from here on out.

Kataklysmic on January 23, 2014 at 5:41 PM

Yep. For all intents and purposes, America, as we knew it, is finito.

Ain’t nothing left to do……

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:15 PM

There are airports out of here. If you believe that you owe it to yourself (and everyone else) to leave.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Trende finds it’s more likely than not that Democrats will win four seats that year. Which means, to give themselves a fair shot at holding the chamber into 2017, the GOP would need to win 10 seats this year, creating a temporary 55/45 advantage.

Actually 9 seats plus the White House (and a 4-seat loss in 2016) would make the Republican Vice President the tie-breaking vote.

aunursa on January 23, 2014 at 6:22 PM

There are airports out of here. If you believe that you owe it to yourself (and everyone else) to leave.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Sorry, Sport. I need to watch this play out. There’s a bunch out there that I want up close and personal Schadenfreude.

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:22 PM

Sorry, Sport. I need to watch this play out. There’s a bunch out there that I want up close and personal Schadenfreude.

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:22 PM

So let the country fail without a fight so you can say “I told you so”. Is this what passes for conservatism or even patriotism?

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:26 PM

It is going to be close in 2014 for GOP to get Senate majority..I don’t want to be Johnny Raincloud but I think (right now) we come up short..:(

Dire Straits on January 23, 2014 at 6:28 PM

So let the country fail without a fight so you can say “I told you so”. Is this what passes for conservatism or even patriotism?

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:26 PM

What do you expect me to do? I vote. But you damned sure don’t want me to be the public face of,,,anything!

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:29 PM

*Makes the sign of the cross with index fingers*

Begone, Devil (Trende)!

RebeccaH on January 23, 2014 at 6:31 PM

Conservatives don’t have a political party that represents them, and Obama’s not running, and Democrats love the Clintons. I believe a true conservative could beat Hillary, but the Republican Party will never have one as their nominee.

lea on January 23, 2014 at 6:34 PM

There are airports out of here. If you believe that you owe it to yourself (and everyone else) to leave.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Believe me if there was someplace left that embraced the founding vision I’d already be there. Divine Providence is what allowed us to win our freedom from England against impossible odds and allowed the FF inspiration to create a perfect consitution. Even many “conservatives” these days sneer at the very values that allowed us that Divine Providence. My committment going forward is to my loved ones, not my suicidal countrymen.

Kataklysmic on January 23, 2014 at 6:39 PM

U.S. Senate seats up for reelection in 2016:

Alabama (Shelby)
Alaska (Murkowski)
Arizona (McCain)
Arkansas (Boozman)
California (Boxer)
Colorado (Bennet)
Connecticut (Blumenthal)
Florida (Rubio)
Georgia (Isakson)
Hawaii (open)
Idaho (Crapo)
Illinois (Kirk)
Indiana (Coats)
Iowa (Grassley)
Kansas (Moran)
Kentucky (Paul)
Louisiana (Vitter)
Maryland (Mikulski)
Missouri (Blunt)
Nevada (Reid)
New Hampshire (Ayotte)
New York (Schumer)
North Carolina (Burr)
North Dakota (Hoeven)
Ohio (Portman)
Oklahoma (open)
Oregon (Wyden)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)
South Carolina (open)
South Dakota (Thune)
Utah (Lee)
Vermont (Leahy)
Washington (Murray)
Wisconsin (Johnson)

Trende believes the Dems will flip four or more of the GOP seats in 2016? Which four? Kirk may be at risk (in the Dem state of Illinois). Buy who else? The Dems are more likely to see Reid lose in Nevada than defeat a Republican in any strong red state. Go ahead, Trende, give us your list of four GOP losers.

Colony14 on January 23, 2014 at 6:41 PM

“But” who else. Oops!

Colony14 on January 23, 2014 at 6:41 PM

What do you expect me to do? I vote. But you damned sure don’t want me to be the public face of,,,anything!

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:29 PM

Fight it! Get involved and try to get like minded individuals to do the same. Don’t like the way the GOP is going? Join it and demand some representation at the meetings. Don’t like the way the country is going? Work to get out the conservative vote. The other side is doing just that, through their unions and PAC comitties they have armies of “paid volunteers” that run circles around the right. They win because they work harder and smarter. (which used to be conservative principles) They are better organized and don’t waste ALL their time in a circular firing squad or chest-thumping on-line like “our side” does.
They eat our lunch and it’s largely because we have given up the fight. We tolerate defeatists, appeasers and outright traitors among us and the only thing we seem to effectively be able to do is whine on the web while they rack up the score.
If the ship does sink we can’t just point the fingers at them, we will share the responsibility for enabling them. That’s not something to take any satisfaction in.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:41 PM

With the Nuclear Option already deployed once, a “filibuster proof majority” is 51 seats (50 if your party holds the vice presidency).

malclave on January 23, 2014 at 6:45 PM

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:41 PM

I’d really like to, but public ‘education’ and pop-culture have pretty much taken care of it. Freedom requires vigilance. Vigilance requires work. We abdicated that responsibility after Dubya Dubya Deuce.

Even Reagan couldn’t stop that fat puke O’Neill from spending up the debt.

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:47 PM

Believe me if there was someplace left that embraced the founding vision I’d already be there. Divine Providence is what allowed us to win our freedom from England against impossible odds and allowed the FF inspiration to create a perfect consitution. Even many “conservatives” these days sneer at the very values that allowed us that Divine Providence. My committment going forward is to my loved ones, not my suicidal countrymen.

Kataklysmic on January 23, 2014 at 6:39 PM

Whelp, you are screwed then because as you acknowledge there is no place else to go. Therefore, if you are committed to your loved ones you either need to discover and colonize a new country/asteroid/planet and base it on what was given to us by the Founding Fathers or fight it out here. Turning the field over to the suicidal set isn’t being a good custodian of the gift that was given to us by the Founding Fathers and everyone else who sacrificed to maintain it.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:47 PM

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 6:47 PM

I’d really like to, but public ‘education’ and pop-culture have pretty much taken care of it.

Sure that isn’t an excuse?

Freedom requires vigilance. Vigilance requires work.

You bet it does, so next election, when I rent a van and drive it to the battleground state that I am a former resident of and make sure that the elderly on the GOP voter roster have either sent in their absentee ballots or have a ride to the polls, maybe I’ll see you there rather than, literally, dozens of teenage Obama Zombies or SEIU employees getting out the vote while a whole bunch of people here pat themselves on the back for staying at home for conservative principles or something. Right?

We abdicated that responsibility after Dubya Dubya Deuce.

That bogey man only works for liberals. He was a sub-par president, time to move on.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:54 PM

That bogey man only works for liberals. He was a sub-par president, time to move on.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:54 PM

That was World War II. And ‘Dubya’ was hardly a sub-par President. Excepting Reagan, you’d have to go all the way back to Eisenhower to get to a better one.

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 7:00 PM

And ‘Dubya’ was hardly a sub-par President. Excepting Reagan, you’d have to go all the way back to Eisenhower to get to a better one.

Lanceman on January 23, 2014 at 7:00 PM

I misread what you were saying, fair enough. My point is that what we are supposed to be custodians of is worth fighting for. It’s frustrating that the biggest threat to it now comes from our fellow countrymen but that’s the way it is, it’s still something we need to confront. In terms of the British, the Spanish, The Mexicans, the Soviets, the Nazis, The Japanese, the -failed on arrival- social frameworks of socialism and government control are not unsurmountable.

Besides, there really isn’t anyplace else to go.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 7:31 PM

With the Nuclear Option already deployed once, a “filibuster proof majority” is 51 seats (50 if your party holds the vice presidency).

malclave on January 23, 2014 at 6:45 PM

Yet again, not true. A Republican majority could require any amount of votes in favor of cloture to stop a filibuster on nominees or legislation. It could even go as far as imposing unanimous consent to confirm Obama’s nominees. There are no rules any more in the Senate. The majority does what it wants. The threshold will change to achieve political ends. The means are irrelevant anymore. Thank Harry Reid.

blammm on January 23, 2014 at 7:34 PM

Its way to early to be even looking at this.

TX-96 on January 23, 2014 at 7:55 PM

You’re right.

Sincerely,
Linda McMahon, Tommy Thompson, Carly Fiorina, George Allen, Scott Brown, and Connie Mack(aka moderate Republican Senate candidates in 2010 & 2012 who all lost)

Doughboy on January 23, 2014 at 5:02 PM

The Tea Party Express endorsed Scott Brown in 2010, and it was a special election. McMahon and Fiorina ran in solidly blue states, they never had a chance. Obama won Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida, which naturally helped Democratic candidates down the ballot. On the other hand, Romney won Missouri and Indiana, and the Tea Party candidates for Senate still lost. The establishment isn’t batting 1000 either, but the TP has done the most damage the last two election cycles specifically because of the Senate seats we basically handed over to the tyrants Reid and Obama.

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 9:07 PM

How are Sen. Charlie Crist & Trey Greyson doing?

tetriskid on January 23, 2014 at 5:04 PM

Crist and Grayson could have won their Senate races, had they gotten through the primary. Thankfully neither of them did. :)

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 9:10 PM

yes. No non-TP candidate ever lost an election and no TP-candidate ever won an election.

See, it’s easy – Tea Party bad, GOP good. The GOP has done so much for this country and for conservatism, while the TP has destroyed this country and conservatism.

quite simple. Full of facts and reason and logic.

I’m not sure why GOP lovers come to conservative sites. The GOP is not, never has been, and does not look like it ever will be, conservative. In fact, quite the opposite. the GOP is for bigger gov’t, more debt, more spending, more entitlements, and less freedom. Yet, here we are talking about how badly we want the GOP to win. to what purpose? Just slightly less more spending? Just slightly less more debt? Just slightly less more gov’t?

Monkeytoe on January 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

Never said any of that. In fact, the Tea Party supported some great candidates: Paul, Rubio, Toomey, Lee, Cruz, Johnson. And the GOP establishment has supported some terrible candidates: Specter, Crist, Chafee, McCain, Graham (just to name a few).

ncconservative on January 23, 2014 at 9:14 PM

Which is why we have GOT to once again stop Amnesty this year

DaMav on January 23, 2014 at 11:41 PM

V7-Sport,

The GOP is not, never has been, and does not look like it ever will be, conservative.

Really sick of this BS. Are you 12 or something?

Hmm. BS . . . That is what you are made of. Let’s assume I’m 12. OK. Now what? Does that make the GOP conservative?

Has the GOP reduced spending ever? NO.

Has the GOP reduced the size of Gov’t ever? No.

Has the GOP cut any federal program? No.

Has the GOP eliminated any federal agency? No.

Has the GOP eliminated any entitlement? No.

Has the GOP created new entitlements? Yes.

Has the GOP increased spending? Yes.

Has the GOP increased the size of gov’t? yes.

Yet, you claim it is conservative? And you cite, what, a speech? And that refutes my points, how? And it proves the GOP is conservative, how?

You really don’t have the capacity for rational thought or fact-based logic, do you?

What rattles around in that empty head of yours? “Must vote GOP, Must vote GOP”

I also love how you equate voting GOP with patriotism. I guess voting for a party that increases debt, increases the size and scope of gov’t, increases entitlements is the height of patriotism now?

You are really an idiot. You claim to be sick of “bs” yet that is all you are made of.

Good luck with all that “patriotism” you have by voting GOP. Patriotism is pretty damn cheap in your mind. It equals a vote for a big-gov’t party. That is sad.

Monkeytoe on January 24, 2014 at 7:41 AM

If the ship does sink we can’t just point the fingers at them, we will share the responsibility for enabling them. That’s not something to take any satisfaction in.

V7_Sport on January 23, 2014 at 6:41 PM

Voting GOP is enabling leftism. The GOP always consolidates and solidifies the leftist gains, and always enacts more leftist gains (spending increases, new entitlements, entitlement expansions, gov’t expansions).

Those who enable the GOP to act as it always has are the true enemies. the left is doing what it says it wants to do. The GOP lies to us and then does what the left wants to do. And yet fools like you cheer the GOP on.

Sad.

Monkeytoe on January 24, 2014 at 7:46 AM